Managing expectations

An OFW Living in Hong Kong points to picture proof of election fraud: Caught in the act? Photos show poll “cheating” (Malaya) PCIJ has more: Evidence of 2004 poll fraud captured in photos? Ellen Tordesillas puts the photos online here, and here, and here.

Random Thoughts points to recent articles in the Philippine Daily Inquirer:

Now it can be told: Why ‘withdrawal’ plot failed

Now it can be told: Who’s who in civilian council

Now it can be told: Esperon was the key

A fellow columnist responded to the articles with these comments via e-mail:

This [referring to why “withdrawal” failed] is almost 100% accurate, comparing it to what I’ve heard from my own sources. What is clear is that there was no coup plot, no tie-up with the Reds.

[Referring to the civilian council story] I think there were two groups that were forming two different transition councils… The CPP-NPA has no role in both councils.

Update: Amando Doronila praises the Inquirer reports and can’t resist taking a potshot at Newsbreak and the PCIJ, saying “the series was a product of no-frills and unpretentious enterprise reporting, not one churned out by corporate-funded investigative journalism.” And yet, the armed forces are angry over the stories.

Oddly enough, just when the President seemed more relaxed, the Vice-President chimes in: De Castro: Arroyo must explain -VP advises boss it’s time to clear air on ‘Garci’. The Palace response has been frosty. Today, Bunye: Gloria done with Garci (Manila Times). While Threats remain — GMA (Manila Standard-Today).

In Thailand, the Nation editorializes in favor of a fact-finding commission. Sounds familiar?

There’s a great epigraph in Lewis Lapham’s essay, The Case for Impeachment: Why we can no longer afford George W. Bush. The epigraph is this:

A country is not only what it does – it is also what it puts up with, what it tolerates. –Kurt Tucholsky

In the punditocracy:

My column for today is Managing expectations. I propose that what defenders of the President or defenders of keeping her where she is, are defending Civilization As We Know It. Appearances are everything; and unless the President suddenly develops leprosy, she will appeal to the keep up appearances mentality.

Billy Esposo on why the Palace fears unnamed news sources:

Inside scoops are the most damaging kind of information. EO 464 is all about the prevention of classified or top secret information being transmitted to those in the senate who can use it against the regime. It is easier to debunk the claim of an outsider than a charge that is supported by insider testimony and actual documents.

The Telecom scandal emanated from a Malacanang source – the late Bing Rodrigo, one of Madame Gloria M. Arroyo’s closest friends. The President Diosdado Macapagal Boulevard graft case that is now in the Ombudsman was the result of the information that was provided by one of the directors of the Public Estates Authority. The extent of corruption in the military was first exposed by the Oakwood mutineers, young officers of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. Department of Agriculture employees were the ones who provided the senate with the documents that served as basis for investigating the Fertilizer Scam.

The current national crisis from whence all these troubles pertaining to PP 1017 are rooted resulted from what are believed are the voices of Madame Arroyo and Comelec Commissioner Virgilio Garcillano discussing the manipulation of 2004 election results – the Garci tapes. Who were the sources of the Garci tapes? They were none other than the military personnel who were tasked to do it.

Carlos Conde in Davao Today speaks of blind bishops.

Dan Mariano says Senator Angara believes the country only has two choices: Charter change, or a junta.

The situation? Sylvia Mayuga expresses it best: we’re in dangerous hour.

In the blogosphere:

thirtysomething questions the economic claims of the administration.

Stepping on poop has an entry responding to a comment I made, and presenting his own view: discernment, not fence-sitting, is what he’s undertaking; strengthening institutions is his ultimate objective.

My responses are simple:

1. when the child yelled, “the Emperor has not clothes,” the fairy tale did not end with the child being hauled off to jail for sedition. The child opened the eyes of the adults. Suffer the little children -and oppositionists.

2. I find it impossible to strengthen any public institution when the head of state and head of government represents everything institutions ought not to stand for.

3. I find it a bit puzzling that the loudest denunciations against self-righteousness have such a shrill self-righteous element to them (and I am not referring to anyone in particular, just a general, noticeable, trend in argumentation). It is to be assumed all people are sinners, and yet it should not be a matter of consequence who is doing the denouncing -just as, to use an analogy from religion, it would seem illogical to prevent any kind of redemption for the reason that all human beings are marked with Adam and Eve’s original sin. Yet that seems to me much of the basis for present arguments. Though I’m not religious, the imagery of scripture remains powerful: Christ kept company with tax collectors and prostitutes and publicans; it was the “rule of law” and “don’t bother the established order” types who crucified him; it was Jesus who lost his temper in the Temple; and it was the Christ’s mission to redeem humanity despite the obvious flaws of his disciples: they denied him, abandoned him, misunderstood him, betrayed him, etc., Adam & Eve started the whole mess, theologically speaking. Yet redemption had to take place. So does denouncing a crime, presuming one’s a sinner, make one self-righteous? Only if one does not believe in sin, or if one denies the possibility either of redemption or that the flawed are not only capable of improvement, but must constantly seek perfection. This is not self-righteousness; it is the pilgrim’s progress.

this is as much a response to this comment by Roy Choco, which asks if opposition by its very nature doesn’t demand total subservience to a cause. My reply to the question is that in this blog and in my writings, I try to spend as much time explaining why I think certain things to be so, as I espousing and actively defending what I think needs to be done. All I have are my words to either convince you, antagonize you, or best of all, simply make you think so your own advocacies are thought through. I reserve a particular kind of scorn for the official defenders of the side I oppose; but then again I tend to be skeptical of whoever is in officialdom, whether I support them at the time or not. I am surer about what needs to be fixed, than as to the specifics of how to fix it: it only takes one person to know a machine is broken, but often a team of mechanics is required to get the motor running again. And I have always advocated here, and elsewhere, that efforts geared towards achieving consensus should be supported. Though we don’t always have the luxury of debating the finer points when the full armaments of the state are brought out to menace the other-minded. I ask you consider the position I adhere to, one of many; if you agree, fine; if you don’t, I’d very much like to understand why not -who knows, it could help me improve my position and possibly lead me to accepting yours. That is, if you want to debate and discuss.

There continue to be epistolary responses to the open letter by (a further response to the reactions to his letter, titled How That Letter Came to Be, was commented on by Rina Jimenez-David in her column):

Manuel Buencamino pens a peppery riposte.

Coffee with Amee has been pondering on the letter (eventually disputing it, point by point), and ponders the author’s response to criticism and debate.

[email protected] reflects on what M. Scott Peck calls “the people of the lie.”

Baratillo books cinema @ cubao replies to Ausero’s critics with a fable.

Demosthenes’ Game questions assumptions that democracy good, fascism bad; he espouses a utilitarian attitude towards democracy.

Three day student sit-in in France, dispersed with tear gas. What a Filipino turn of events.

Blurry Brain reads Horacio de la Costa, SJ. A great entry-

Heraclitus once said that “character is destiny”. We are most likely in this rut because our character dictated it so. I’ve had enough of pundits who write endlessly about what needs to be done for this country. Everybody knows in his heart what has to be done. The question is if we have the stomach for it. We are too self-indulgent, too forgiving of offenses done to us, too quick to allow others to put one up over us, too content or laidback to have the obssession needed to do whatever it takes to nail down an objective, and too quick to sacrifice the good of the nation for shallow compassion for individuals.

National Democrat meets Capitalist Boss.

Errata: JV Rufino emailed me to correct something I wrote about editorial procedures at Inq7.net: As a rule we don’t use anonymous sources. There have been exceptions, but in in those cases, the desk know who the source is, the information is corroborated through other means (and I don’t mean another anonymous source), and there is an overriding public interest in the information.

A reader of this blog (number cruncher, in a comment) notes I got the translation of “tolle, lege” used in my column last Thursday, wrong; I remembered it to mean, “listen, read”; it actually means “pick up, and read.”

Recent linkers: iN tHe GrAoEViNe, My Two Centavus, keep the spirit!, Exciting Existence.

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    • Jeg on March 13, 2006 at 1:51 pm

    What is clear is that there was no coup plot…

    Indeed, there was no coup plot. What there was was a–ehem–constitutional rescue. Sure it looks like a coup plot but notice the term ‘constitutional’ in it? That makes it different. And let’s not forget the ‘no tie-up with the reds’ bit. For it to be an according-to-Hoyle coup plet, it must have at least a tinge of rouge on it.

    Oh, EDSA 2. What have you wrought?

    • Karl on March 13, 2006 at 1:53 pm

    “The trouble with you is that you take this game of politics too seriously.You loook far behind you and too far ahead of you……………All they want is to have the present problem solved,and solved with the least pain.That is all.”

    this was said more than half a century ago by President Quezon to President Osmena.

    Fast forward to today…
    We still want the present problem solved,but we have to look back 34 years hence..20 years hence, because we need to, to solve the present problem…

    • Karl on March 13, 2006 at 2:07 pm

    “The trick is to assume nothing works,so that when things do,It’s a delight………..People have gone through life learning the ins and outs,and by so doing,mange to carve out for themselves some kind of existence which,if it could be better, at least might not be worse than it is….”
    >>>>>>.>>>>>
    Managing expections,,you do it to eliminate disappointment or expect the worst out of everything….oops that is lowering standards pala…

    Hoping for the best but expecting the worse….maybe the only simplified way of saying it.

    Do we hope for the best as in making the glue step out and expect the worst as in she will not step down….

    or manage our expectations by bridging the gap between hope and expectations..

    Time to let the managers speak up….

  1. So it was true.. There was a State Of Emergency and She acted correctly..

    Notice that not only the President was going to be removed but all branches of government and the Courts..

    All after the Elections everyone agreed she won, then they started plotting her removal.. If the photos were real don’t you think they would have dropped them at the best time for them in the middle of the Garci Issue.. At the Impeachment when the Opposition were trying to add more to the fire..

    Also lets go back to SWS – President is related to POE, one of the editiors of PCIJ are related to him? and after she won they all said nothing happened and that the polls were fair and balanced and were correct to the polls before the election..

    If this evidence really existed at the time it would have come out during the tapes, inquiry..

    Also later were they not saying that this way done previous to the elections and that the ARMY changed the Ballot Boxes now they say they were changed over at a later date..

    They keep changing their stories, on what when how.. IF GMA Called Garci to fake the results and change the ballot boxes why would they be doing it..after the elections 6 months later?

  2. Sleeping, I think you’re starting off with wrong premises:

    1. “everyone agreed she won” – Who’s everyone?
    2. “If this evidence really existed at the time it would have come out during the tapes inquiry” – What if it was someone from Gloria’s minions who has them all the time, and now this someone has a special reason to release it?

    If the opposition had the pictures (still and moving) all the time, I’m sure that it should have been out at the same time as the Garci tapes. (If you’re thinking against Gloria).
    If the opposition had the pictures all this time, why release it just now? They just finished making them, these are fakes. (If you’re for Gloria).

    In my reasoning, Sleeping is really a Gloria fan…

  3. BTW, thanks for the “front page” link MLQ3.

  4. Jon explain why they keep changing there stories when did she cheat?? What actual day..
    Was it when she called Garcia?

    Or as they now claim 6 Months Later?

    SWS said she won, Namfrel, the opposition..

    IF she had cheated then she would have had to cheat at every level because she has supporters in Majority in all other levels? Including the Senate?

  5. Sleeping, did SWS conduct any counting? Did the Namfrel complete its tabulation? Which member of the opposition said Gloria won?

  6. Jon mariano has a point in correcting the premise of Sleeping – since day one after the election, stories about cheating were numerous. remember that those issues were brought to congress from which mr pangilininan earned the moniker, “senator noted” because he marked as noted only the election returns pointed out as tampered.

    However this time, i have serious doubt about the pictures. Looking at the pictures one cannot readily tell that those in the pictures are doing the cheating for any specific candiddate.

    • a de brux on March 13, 2006 at 3:44 pm

    MLQ3,

    I never believed that there was a coup d’état conspiracy, launched, attempted or foiled. I didnn”t believe there was a coup d’état plot PERIOD! The minute Gloria Macapagal failed to deliver the supposed culprits and the elements that tchnically constitute a coup d’état immediately following her proclamation of Emergency Rule, I knew she was telling a lie, just one of her many lies. Things didn’t add up. The woman is an inveterate and pathological liar. There couldn’t have been a coup d’etat plot.

    I never believed that there was ever a CPP-NPA plot with an AFP component to launch a coup d’état. As one Senator said, it was all in the deranged mind of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and her advisers.

    It was stupid of Ed Ermita to agree for her to do it. He used to belong to the military top brass – he should’ve known that Gloria’s coup d’état gimmick just wouldn’t and couldn’t wash!

  7. In this link, FPJ and Loren filed their protest on July 24, 2004.

  8. Yes SWS actually said she won..

    And still do.. the results are there to see..

    http://www.sws.org.ph/pr071304.PDF

    • a de brux on March 13, 2006 at 3:52 pm

    However, Gloria Macapagal and her husband led a bloodless coup d’état successfully in 2001 backed by MajGen Espinoza (Gloria’s favorite “Espi”) and the mutiny of a bunch of generals.

    The only major service commander who was opposed to the mutiny in January 2001 and who was prepared to defend the Republic was the Commanding General of the Philippine Air Force but he knew he didn’t have enough firepower to defend the Constitution against a combined Army-Navy force of 100,000 officers and men.

    While Gloria stupidly claimed that the air force plane flying over Edsa was there to protect her, she didn’t know that Col Yap was waiting for orders to fire at Espinoza’s troops if the going got tough. The civilian hakot crowd composed of civil society and leftist elements saved Gloria’s day and the spilling of blood on that grim day 21st Jan 2001.

    • jhay on March 13, 2006 at 3:52 pm

    There was no coup plot, the military or who ever came up with the AFP presentation should receive an Oscar for best screenplay/story or more accuratel, best adapted screenplay since most were recycled material from Marcos’ era, especially PP 1017.

    • Trudis_Liit on March 13, 2006 at 3:53 pm

    I AM APPALLED BY PEOPLE WHO suggest that Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo should be allowed to finish her term because advocating her ouster hurts our economy, or because the presidents before her were just as bad.

    In the first place, the presidents before her won their elections legitimately, fair and square.

    Second, if we are concerned about the kind of message we’re sending out to local and foreign investors by marching in protest, then shouldn’t we be more concerned about what kind of message we’re sending out to our children if we don’t? Legitimacy may not always yield better lives for people or a better economy, but it surely gives people a reassuring sense of justice, fairness and integrity.

    Third, it is not merely the right but the obligation of a citizen to speak out for change. It is our duty to look out for our nation and not to succumb to apathy.

    —GRETCHEN LEGASPI

  9. Sleeping, SWS did not count the votes nor canvass the ERs. What they did was just an exit poll. The numbers they produced does not count. e.g. They had it wrong in Metro Manila big time!

    Namfrel did not complete it’s counting.

    I can’t remember any opposition member saying that GMA won!

    It’s of no consequence anyway. It’s just that when you make arguments and you sound so “for” somebody, your arguments seems to lose some of its meaning.

    • ROW_FOUR on March 13, 2006 at 4:09 pm

    GMA’s next favorite “Espe” general was ESPERON

    CHEATING, LYING and STEALING

    – From the TIME she announced that SHE will

    NOT RUN, The APPOINTMENT of GARCI and BARCI, The

    Questioning of FPJ’s Citizenship, The ILLEGAL

    Used of PUBLIC FUNDS to ensure HER VICTORY …

    “TRUTH” is the HARDEST ENEMY, she can SWEEP and

    HIDE IT from the PUBLIC BUT it will always be REVEALED

    and ONLY TIME can TELL WHEN …

  10. http://www.inq7.net/nat/2004/may/14/nat_8-1.htm

    Exit polls are thought to have been first conducted in the United States in 1964. They are carried out after voters leave polling precincts. Often, the respondents fill out questionnaires asking for their ages, sex, which candidates they voted for and why.

    In the Philippines, prior to this year’s elections, the Social Weather Stations had conducted three nationwide exit polls — in 1995, 1998 and 2001.

    Unlike in the United States, field workers for SWS conduct the surveys in the privacy of the respondents’ homes.

    The results of past SWS exit polls have been accurate.

  11. I rest my case Sleeping.

  12. http://www.mindanews.com/2004/05/14vws-diaz.html

    The Social Weather Station exit poll survey last Monday proved that the intelligence of the masa had wrongly been taken for granted. The survey implied that the masa were not totally taken in by Poe’s popularity and Estrada’s appeal to vote for Poe.

    SWS Credible

    Can the SWS survey be trusted as a valid ground for such implication? SWS is a credible professional polling agency. It has been commissioned by reputable business groups and other institutions to poll data for decision. As explained, the Monday exit poll survey was professionally done.
    A good proof of its credibility: Its exit poll in Election 2001 predicted accurately the senatorial winners. In the Election 1998, its exit poll survey predicted Estrada to win 39.2 percent of the votes and vice presidential candidate Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo,

    http://www.geocities.com/dapat_tapatt/whowon.html

    Panfilo Lacson was the first to respond to her call for reconciliation, which many interpreted as a tacit admission of her victory, and which to others, the usual suspects who project their own mercenary selves, meant that he had been bribed into making it. Raul Roco was the first, and so far, only rival to formally concede to her, on May 17.

    http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203×65001
    Here are 100 Exit Poll Links: Be forewarned. Only a few know what they are talking about.

    Virtually all miss the essential points that…
    1- Exit Polls are used throughout the world to check for election fraud.

    The early quick counts that showed Ms Macapagal-Arroyo leading were made by the AMA Education System and ABS-CBN Broadcasting Corp., and only later by Namfrel.

    http://www.sws.org.ph/dong1.htm
    Dong Puno — On the issue..
    To those with enough maturity to put reasons and common sense before rapid partisanship and, as important, are able to stanch their blabophiliac tendencies, I commend for their immediate attention the column of Mahar Mangahas in another newspaper entitled “How the SWS exit poll was done.” There he goes into great detail in describing his methodology. Those who deceive themselves into believing the exit polls results were snatched from thin air will be relieved of their illusions.

    • a de brux on March 13, 2006 at 4:53 pm

    Ellen Tordesillas opened her column Granting Defensor’s Wish with “I’m glad Mike Defensor is challenging uniformed men who knew of or were used in rigging of the 2004 elections to come out and present proof.” (March 13, 2006 at 12:06 am http://www.ellentordesillas.com/?p=165#comments )

    The honor of the Philippine military is very much at stake today.

    If we could just find 10 honorable officers and men from each AFP major service command to comply with their oath and the AFP Code of Ethics, there is no doubt that the Philippine Republic will be saved from utter desolation and unecessary destruction.

    • a de brux on March 13, 2006 at 4:54 pm

    General Senga, Chief of Staff Armed Forces of the Philippines, I thought was one such officer. Like most good officers, he is a decorated fighter, a mindanao veteran through and through who hads a reputation for not having a penchant for MILITCS. Senga is supposed to be one real genuine military man who WAS NOT INTO, the practice of lobbying for his promotion with the help of political backers. He is generally know to be a gentleman and an officer who, beneath that tough veneer, is someone who is kind and level headed.

    Today is that time in history when General Senga should prove to the world that the Philippine military officer is not totally devoid of honor. This is the time when he should go head on, full blast, give no quarter to unearth the truth – to dig into the election scam to bare the scums who helped a civilian with no honor and no shame to reign over the 80 million souls of what was once a brave and hopeful nation. This is the time when he should lead the righteous and the moral in the military and expose the criminals, the collaborators and the military officers and men who were involved in the election cheatings in 2004, no matter who gets hurt because military honor is at stake.

    • a de brux on March 13, 2006 at 4:56 pm

    General Farolan (former PAF Commanding General) said in his column in the March 12 2006 issue of the Inquirer, “One thing is clear: It all boils down to success or failure. Those who win are hailed as the defenders of the Constitution. Those who lose are branded “misguided elements” out to destabilize the administration. From the look of things, there is still no end in sight to the problems confronting the AFP. Until questions of legitimacy and abuse of power-as symbolized by the “Hello Garci” controversy and the fertilizer fund scandal, respectively-are finally resolved, restiveness in the ranks will continue.”

    General Farolan’s observation and statement is an implicit challenge to the military.

    The Armed Forces of the Philippines cannot be the professional honorable institution that it wants to be for as long as its men and women, officers and ordinary soldiers allow their ranks to be used by unscrupoulous politicians to do do their dirty bidding. They cannot inspire admiration and respect while they allow themselves to be used by Gloria Macapagal- Arroyo, the most terrible woman politican this country has ever known, a woman with no honor and no shame, a politican who continues to breach the Constitution that they have sworn to uphold, a persona who continues to break the backbone of the Republic that they have sworn to protect, a political harlot who continues to ignore the Rule of Law with gross impunity for her own personal profit.

    • a de brux on March 13, 2006 at 4:57 pm

    Our armed forces today must come to grips with the grim political reality in our country: that Gloria Macapagal Arroyo is not their rightful commander-in-chief. They must realize that she, not content with having turned them into our Republic’s unprofessional warriors, continues to dismantle the nation’s military institution by using them – the military men and women – as HER private mercenearies to achieve her fiendish ends. They must come to their senses and decide that she, who has no moral nor legal right to be their commander-in-chief, must be checked and stopped in her tracks before she turns our Republic into a nation of armed brigands and slaves.

    Lest Senga forgets, a professional and honorable military is the backbone of the nation’s freedom; it is the guarantor of the Republic’s independence and is the protector of its citizens. He must prove that the AFP is all that or he should surrender his military rank and uniform NOW!

    • a de brux on March 13, 2006 at 4:58 pm

    I’ve always believed that there’s a higher degree of honor in the military than in the civilian component of a nation. General Senga who possessed a great military record worthy of a four-star general must prove that he possesses a higher degree of honor than anyone else in the military. Senga must command his legion now – it’s time for the Philippine military to redeem its tattered honor and show the civilian usurper in Malacanang what HONOR truly means.

    • a de brux on March 13, 2006 at 5:03 pm

    Commodore Plaridel “Garec” C Garcia (Ret) of PMA Class ‘59, an honorable military officer said, “A corrupt society has no place for a military with honor. A military without honor is only good as bouncers of a corrupted power over the political economy.”

    It’s time for our military to break this woman’s selfish ambitions which she is prepared to achieve even if it means destroying the nation; our good officers and men must be determined and MUST DENY her their support!

  13. exit poll is less accurate in the sense that there is a possiblity that voters may not necessarily tell who they voted for as written in the ballot when they are asked in the survey. Besides the person conducting the survey can be selective which is beyond mahar mngahas control.

    what really matter in an election and a presidential one at that is an honest count of the election returns and not the survey.

    • Jeg on March 13, 2006 at 5:34 pm

    It’s time for our military to break this woman’s selfish ambitions which she is prepared to achieve even if it means destroying the nation; our good officers and men must be determined and MUST DENY her their support!

    Another legacy of EDSA 2: The military as kingmaker. They enthroned GMA to where she is now, and she is returning the favor. If this extra-legal ‘withdrawal of support’, this coup, happens again, it could very well be the final straw for our Constitution. Might as well use it to wrap tinapa, for we have then become a banana republic.

  14. And to Quote someone close to us all..

    MLQ3…
    http://www.inq7.net/opi/2004/may/24/opi_mlquezoncol-1.htm

    Finally, there is the realization that an administration victory at this time spells the doom of certain opposition leaders, Joseph Estrada foremost among them. A lame-duck Congress, composed of embittered politicians, some of whom will be deprived of a national soapbox come June 30, cannot resist the temptation to milk the situation for all the media exposure it’s worth. Rep. Didagen Dilangalen, for one, is surely salivating at the prospect of his swan song being in the nature of leading a revolt against Speaker Jose de Venecia.

    It will be messy. The President won. But her victory is in danger of becoming a Pyrrhic one, unless the administration regains a sense of equilibrium in the coming days.

    • a de brux on March 13, 2006 at 5:56 pm

    “Residual threats remain, says Arroyo” is today’s Inquirer banner.

    Did Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, the inveterate and pathological liar mean that there are residual threats by NPA-AFP military component conspiring to “launch” a coup d’état again?

    It’s like when she asked Garci to manipulate election results to make sure that “wins” the presidency. The whole coup d’état threat plot, etc. was a manufactured lie. But if she doesn’t stop lying, good and honorable officers of the AFP might just finally give it to her and topple her by coup d’état so she MUST be extremely careful and mustn’t cry “Wolf!” too often.

    Gloria’s manufactured evidence involving an NPA-AFP military component under Plan A of Oplan Hackle was similar to Joma Sison’s plan back in the late 60s when he started recruiting Victor Corpuz who finally defected in 67.Exactly that – there’s nothing new. The tactic of an attack from the ‘nayon’ to the site of central government over a period of time is JoMa’s dogma. That someone lifted that from Joma’s website and passed it off as the current tactical doctrine of a newly found “Communist and military” alliance is more than plausible.

    • a de brux on March 13, 2006 at 5:58 pm

    If for the sake of argument, we accept government thesis of a modern or latter day version of Oplan Hackle, the government has to produce evidence of a a united left wing and military alliance by way of naming names, military defectors and backers. Or one junior officer in active service backed by two very old retired military officers with a few civilian names are not exactly a proof of attempted government overthrow by coup d’état nor do they present real threats to the State more than the protracted Communist rebellion over so many decades.

    • a de brux on March 13, 2006 at 6:02 pm

    Moreover, if we are to continue on the premise that Operation Hackle would indeed culminate in the overthrow of Gloria and her government on 24th February, then the AFP thesis is defeated because to reach their many/various site objectives, the tactical Communist-AFP alliance would have needed at least 1 army division and at least the same number of leftist fighters from the NPA in order to achieve a realistic overthrow attempt.

    I doubt that they would have been able to do that. Why? LOGISTICS; you need weapons, ammunitions, trucks, vehicles, other sort of motorized transport to get those men (and arms) – NPA & military adventurers – into several battle orbits and towards their designated targets.

    How do you propose to do that without being noticed by the major service commands? Are they forgetting that with military checkpoints put up in every single junction in the archipelago, how could an AFP military component get away with all the logistics without being discovered! The Palace is taking people for a ride and continues to take us for a ride, for a continuous spin in a ferries wheel!

    • a de brux on March 13, 2006 at 6:08 pm

    Gloria and her Palace lackeys have finetuned the art of the spin.

    Unbelievable that they would try to force so much frog manure in people’s throat. But unfortunately, they have the power of propaganda the propaganda machine…

    I propose that we train an accusatory gun at Gloria and her husband – they led and committed a COUP D’ETAT IN 2001! If people are serious about stopping the propagation of Palace shits, I suggest that people turn around and fire a salvo that they will not ever forget: INDICT THEM for coup d’état…

  15. If you have the Generals Commanding a movement like that it would be easy..

    Remember back to marcos days, They praticed Absailing from the sides of buildings in the City.

    Marcos asked about it and the general just said to him, we were doing some training..

    Not hard, To move a troops.. The ones from the south are replacing the ones in the north the ones in the north are going south.. AH HA they meet up in the center …

    • a de brux on March 13, 2006 at 6:21 pm

    It’s important to determine with finality that based on what had happened prior and during the State of Emergency, there was no coup d’état conspiracy, no attempt to launch a coup d’état, no foiled coup d’état and no coup d’état at all committed by any AFP military component who had allied themselves with the NPA or by a group of APF officers and men.

    The first Palace spin tried to persuade media thrugh an AFP powerpoint presentation that there was a coup d’état conspiracy but the AFP powerpoint presentation had no meat. I printed a hard copy and presented it to my military friends from NATO for review – they were amused and couldn’t believe that the elements presented by the AFP consituted a coup d’état or a violent government overthrow conspiracy.

    The AFP powerpoint presentation contained mere political and leftist gobbledygook that you could easily pick up from JoMa Sison’s blog site! Based on what the AFP presented, there indeed was a political discussion between 2 groups of people and which could easily be construed as a conspiracy of sorts but it stops there – the elements they presented are hardly evidences of a coup d’état conspiracy, let alone a coup d’état attempt and definetely not a coup d’état!

    • a de brux on March 13, 2006 at 6:28 pm

    urthermore, inasmuch as GMA failed to announce the arrest of the perpetrators of either a conspiracy to commit a coup d’état or to commit a mutiny and much less an attempted coup d’état, immediately following her declaration of Emergency, we can safely assume that there was NOT at all a coup d’état conspiracy. She and members of the government and the military failed to produce the evidences that a coup d’état was indeed in the offing.
    To prove that there was a coup d’état conspiracy, the government should have presented several elements pointing to a conspiracy, minutes following the declaration of Emergency.

    But until today, we haven’t seen any evidence of a coup d’état conspiracy. (Gloria and her Palace lackeys are still busy manufacturing evidences with their propaganda machine – wheeling and dealing to convince the public that there are residual threats of whatever her deranged mind is imagining today! But she must be careful not to cry “Wolf!” too much…)

    1. Where are the lists of names of the military coup d’état leaders and members?
    2. Where are the plans of strategical sites to be captured or taken over, eg., tv stations, government buildings, etc.
    3. Where is the plan or plans for movement of ‘rebel’ military troops?
    4. Where are the plans for logistic support, eg., the weapons and ammunitions, etc.?
    5. Where are the weapons caché?
    6. What have “loyal” commanders and “loyal” troops from each major service command presented as evidences of “rebel” troop movements, motorized or not?

    • a de brux on March 13, 2006 at 6:30 pm

    Let’s re-calibrate the whole coup d’état issue: Prior to declaration of Emergency, there wasn’t remotely an attempt to commit a coup d’état because the elements which constitute a coup d’état weren’t present.

    Coup d’état: Sudden and violent overthrow of the government.
    °The element of speed (sudden!) is a requisite.
    °The element of violence (weapons, arms, ammunitions, etc.) is a requisite.
    °The movement of armed troops in attack formation must be present with or without backing by civilian components.

    Coup d’état attempt: all elements in the above must be present for a troop rebellion to be qualified as a coup d’état attempt.

    A foiled coup d’état: a coup d’état which was stopped in its tracks before the first salvo was even launched (but all the elements in the above must be present to call it a “foiled coup d’état”.)

    A quashed coup d’état: a coup d’état in action but defeated by loyal government counter firepower.

    The military has very basic and clear cut rules: OBEY & FOLLOW THE CHAIN OF COMMAND.

    What acutally happened was that instead of preventing a breach in the military chain of command the proclamation of Emergency rule merely triggered a military chain of errors.

  16. A coup d’état (pronounced /ku de’ta/), or simply a coup, is the sudden overthrow of a government against the volonté générale formed by the majority of the citizenry, usually done by a smaller supposedly weaker body that just replaces the top power figures. It may or may not be violent in nature. It is different from a revolution, which is staged by a larger group and radically changes the political system. The term is French for “a (sudden) blow (or strike) to a state” (literally, coup, hit, and état, state). The term coup can also be used in a casual sense to mean a gain in advantage of one nation or entity over another; e.g. an intelligence coup. By analogy, the term is also applied to corporations, etc; e.g. a boardroom coup.

    Please read Wikpedia ..
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d'état

    • a de brux on March 13, 2006 at 6:38 pm

    Let’s consider the following the supposedly prime actors in the supposedly ‘hatched but ‘botched coup d’état::
    Prior to delcaration of Emergency:

    Based on what we’ve heard and read, the act committed by BGen Danilo Lim (accused of asking Gen Senga, the Chief of Staff AFP to withdraw support for Gloria, the commander in chief illegitimus) technically could only be qualified as an act of insubordination.

    If BGen Lim, for the sake of argument, refuses “to apologize” to his Commander In Chief and ask for pardon, he should be tried by a Court Martial and depending on other supporting charges against him, he should be immediately dishonorably discharged and/or forfeit all military pensions. BGen Lim cannot be charged for MUTINY based on Articles of War because the act of MUTINY involves 3 or more military men (or women). But is that happening today? Is he being tried by a Court Martical under the Articles of War more than 2 weeks after Gloria claimed that Lim was involved in an AFP-NPA alliance to overthrow her illegitimate presidency?

    A mutiny cannot be committed by only 1 person. The case is pretty clear cut. But until today, we have not heard anything related to the future of Lim. In military parlance, my conclusion is that he could not have committed or conspired to commit a coup d’état. Moreover, he has recently denied any coup d’état conspiracy accusation being leveled against him.

    • a de brux on March 13, 2006 at 6:41 pm

    During the proclamation of Emergency rule on day 1:

    The act committed by Col. Ariel Querubin (and his men) could be qualified as an act of mutiny because he tried to lead a group of Marines towards Edsa against the expressed orders of his Commandadant (MajGen Miranda); even if he was stopped and led back to barracks, he is nevertheless liable to face charges of MUTINY. But his act right then and there was not an act of coup d’état.

    On the subject of MajGen Renato Miranda (gross injustice?):

    Col Querubin stated that he and his men decided to mutiny (on 25th Feb) after learning that their commandant (Miranda) was relieved of his command in spite of the fact that he (Querubin & his men) had agreed not to mutiny earlier on. We also learned (simultaneously from the press) that MajGen Miranda himself had decided to resign his command because his Flag Officer In Command (FOIC) had informed him that he was thinking of relieving him. Miranda therefore jumped the gun. Why didn’t the FOIC refuse Miranda’s resignation or re-instate him, after all Querubin had stated unequivocally that he had been persuaded by Miranda earlier on not to mutiny? Miranda should have been decorated instead of relieved!

    * Coup in French means a sudden move, act or blow.

    • a de brux on March 13, 2006 at 6:57 pm

    It was really Gen Generoso Senga, CSAFP who caused Gloria to panic when he apparently reported that the same Gloria golden boy – BGen Danny Lim, commander of the PA Rangers, the first one from his class on whom she’s placed a gallant star – had allegedly asked him to join his group in their withdrawal of support for Gloria.

    Moreover, Lim is as infamous as he is famous – he was a veteran ‘putschist’. Remember when he took over the top of the Atrium building with a rebel faction of the military during the August 1989 coup d’état against Cory Aquino?

    Gloria in her deranged mind thought “This guy CAN NOT BE BOUGHT” (Shit, Lim is a goddamn West Pointer too!)! This surely gave the Palace folks more than a symbolic jitter – they got friggin scared! Yet they haven’t charged him with anything because Malacanang is shit scared that if they charge Lim properly in a military tribunal, the shit will hit the fan in the military! Hah! There’s their imminent coup d’état for real!

    (In true military legal fashion, Senga should have been demoted by the way if he hasn’t filed filed charges against Gloria based on Gloria’s claim that Lim was involved in a coup d’état conspiracy with the commies but heck, no Senga can’t do that because he knows, being an officer with a good military record that Gloria’s accusations ain’t true!)

    Anyway, it was obvious that Lim factor added to the already heightened state of panic which Gloria has been finding herself in lately but I reckon, the alleged Lim act precipitated her into a panic mode (after all, she’d been toying with the idea long before – all the ingredients were there for her to call on her emergency powers so why not now?).

    Anyway, too late for Gloria and her government to present evidences of an a coup d’état foiled, imminent, quashed, or whatever military gobbledygook she wants to present – just won’t wash!

    • a de brux on March 13, 2006 at 7:01 pm

    Did you notice that Gloria, commander-in-chief (daw) did not say a word on the 24th of February on the military future of BGen Danny Lim?

    Traditionally, a military officer of that rank who’s committed such military offence (inciting his senior officer to commit mutiny), would have been immediately ordered arrested under Article of War and a court martial convened immediately to try him.

    • a de brux on March 13, 2006 at 7:04 pm

    Questions come to mind that would have legal military bearing on “coup d’état attempt or mutiny” committed by BGen Lim – the bases of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s, the inveterate and pathologicaql liar, declaration of Emergency Rule.

    1. During BGen Lim’s talk with Gen Senga, did he in fact simply ask the CSAFP to “join HIM in his plan to withdraw support for the commander-in-chief”?
    2. Was BGen Lim alone and unaccompanied by officers ‘under his command’ when he discussed with the CSAFP?
    3. At any given instance, during the discussion did he ask CSAFP to join him AND HIS GROUP to withdraw support for the commander-in-chief?
    4. At any given instance, during the discussion, did he say CSAFP that Lim and/or/with his group ARE planning to ask for the resignation of the commander-in-chief and that he would like the CSAFP to join them?
    5. Was BGen Lim ARMED and accompanied by 2 or 3 other ARMED fellow officers (understably with Lim in command) when he talked with CSAFP?

    Obviously, there was a string of statements made here and there between the two but it is quite important to be exact here since “coup d’état or mutiny” is in question here.

    • a de brux on March 13, 2006 at 7:06 pm

    I’m puzzled that the Palace has been throwing spins/charges that there was and is a coup d’état conspiracy – an extremely serious military CRIME – and at one point even said, FOILED coup d’état (absurd in the extreme) yet during Gloria’s proclamation of Emergency Rule (1 step towards Martial Rule) she did not divulge or show evidences, which she should have done, the dicovery of WEAPONS caché sequestered by supposed perpetuators of a planned coup d’état, list of names of the ring leaders, some details of troop movements.

    If Gloria did not/could not present evidences that a component of the military (there’s lots of military men on her staff, i.e., retired LtGen Ed Ermita for starters) of which she claims she is commander-in-chief have conspired to overthrow her government by means of a coup d’état, then the case against those officers is simply that of INSUBORDINATION!

    • a de brux on March 13, 2006 at 7:08 pm

    The State has been in a state of rebellion, what with NPAs, MILFs, MNLFs, etc. staging armed attacks on the government military since the end of WWII, so what else is new that she should find the Republic under threat of violence, all of a sudden, etc.?

    What exactly did she declare SEO for? I see no evidence of a COUP D’ETAT conpiracy! Gloria and her government might just CONTINUE fabricatng evidences to release to a credulous public but really, they’re too late; they missed their chance.

    I agree with you entirely MLQ3, government panicked and they’re still panicking. Their panic is going to drive the already restive military to go for the ultimate act: an actual COUP D’ETAT!

    • a de brux on March 13, 2006 at 7:17 pm

    THIS WAS A REAL COUP D’ETAT LED & BACKED BY THE ARROYO COUPLE

    From John Marzan’s Political Junkie Blog
    http://politicaljunkie.blogspot.com/2006/02/news-flash-military-coup-topples.html#114108781092074033
    Monday, February 27, 2006`

    NEWS FLASH: MILITARY COUP TOPPLES PHILIPPINE PRESIDENT (with help from Communists and Leftists)
    Mike Arroyo, in his own words. Credit should go to Mike Arroyo…

    • a de brux on March 13, 2006 at 7:19 pm

    “THIS is a season of remembering those exhilarating days in January last year when Joseph Estrada, accused of betraying the trust of the Filipino people who elected him president, was ousted three years and five months short of his term.

    Believing in giving credit to where credit is due, we are reprinting here again excerpts of the interview with Mike Arroyo by the eminent Nick Joaquin on his role in the ouster of Estrada, which paved the way for his wife’s takeover of the presidency. The interview appeared in the March 5, 2001 issue of Philippine Graphic.”

    From Mike Arroyo’s public confession (via Graphic Magazine):

    “She had really left the Cabinet at the right moment: the timing was perfect. If she had tarried a moment longer, she would have been too late for EDSA: she would have made it there as an opportunist. And as for the ill-feeling in Metro Manila, we tackled that by going back to the door-to-door campaign: she went from barangay to barangay explaining her motives, outlining her program. And it worked. Then came the impeachment trial, and from there, tuloy-tuloy na.

    • a de brux on March 13, 2006 at 7:21 pm

    Continuation of Mike Arroyo’s confession via Graphic Magazine:

    “There was a time honestly, when I felt I erred in advising her to resign from the Cabinet. The masa in Manila apparently wanted her to stick it out with Erap. And when she started attacking him, everything fell on us – grabe!- everything! But I told myself: it’s now or never; if we lose here we’re totally destroyed and it’s goodbye to her political career – but if we win here, she becomes President! So we really fought.

    “We got all those Erap tapes from Ramon Jacinto and distributed them all over. We bought one million and a half million copies of Pinoy Times to give away so the public could read about the Erap mansions and bank accounts.

    • a de brux on March 13, 2006 at 7:22 pm

    Mike Arroyo confession’s continuation:

    “We got all those Erap tapes from Ramon Jacinto and distributed them all over. We bought one million and a half million copies of Pinoy Times to give away so the public could read about the Erap mansions and bank accounts.

    “And when EDSA happened, we texted everybody to go running there. EDSA, EDSA: everybody converge on EDSA! Panalo kung panalo. Patay kung patay! Jinggoy had already announced what they would do to us if they won.

    “Chavit Singson had Plan B involving elements of the military to strike the first blow. They would kindle the spark by withdrawing from the government, and one by one others would follow: Class ’71 would also withdraw, then Class ’72, and so forth. But General de Villa warned that the timing had to be precise because one untimely move against the government and the military would automatically defend it. The move must be made at what De Villa called a ‘defining moment.’

    • a de brux on March 13, 2006 at 7:24 pm

    Fatman Mike Arroyo’s ‘defining moment”:

    “You see, General De Villa had his Plan A, which was better than ours, because his was focused on the Chief of Staff and the Service Commanders. At past one o’clock p.m. January 20, Chief of Staff Angelo Reyes defected but we knew that already the night before, when negotiations had lasted until the small hours. By past 2 a.m. we knew Reyes had been convinced to join. His only condition was: Show us a million people on EDSA so it will b easier to bring in the service commanders.

    “And they asked when the crowd was thickest; we told them: from three to five in the afternoon. So they agreed to come to EDSA at around that time. But while hiding in their safehouse, they got reports that General Calimlim could not be located and their first thought was: “He’s out looking for us!” So they decided to rush to EDSA right away. When they got there, why there too at the Shrine was Calimlim! He had been looking for them all right, but join to join them, not to arrest them!

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