The real electoral battle

144 thoughts on “The real electoral battle”

1. Reading Tony Lopez’ piece, I’m beginning to hear something that we’ll get ad nauseam for the next few weeks – “X is leading, thus the People want Y.” They want change, they don’t want Gloria Arroyo, they don’t want balimbing, etc. etc. It’s a simplistic parody of political analysis that, sadly, crowds out more nuanced thought from other quarters.

2. Much to the dismay of our pride, International media is not too interested in what is happening in The Philippine election.

   I think the only time we are in the news is when there is a natural disaster.

   In the grand scheme of international politics, The Philippine election is way below The French Election and the stepping down of Tony Blair.

   Anna Nicole Smith ranks higher nowadays in terms of news coverage.

   All that said, I still find it a chuckle regarding the offensive being mounted by The Administration, COMELEC, and TU against the unofficial counts being done by the news media…

3. i am a concerned citizen from bicol. i just want to point out to you manila the massive vote-buying and er discrepancies here in camarines norte by administration bets in most of the municipalities and in the provincial races. the incumbent governor and congressman is moving heaven and earth just to win back their seats from the popular oppsoition bets atty. liwayway chato and egay tallado. they are evne using a radio station owned and funded by the provincial government for their own propaganda. the people in these stations are proclaiming that gov. typoco and cong. unico have won already eventhough they have yet to be proclaimed. the admin bets are known to have used vote buying in the municipalities of jose panganiban, mercedes, and labo. the national media needs to hear this story because the admin bets are using their clouts just for their selfish political gain. the people of camarines norte do not want these worthless incumbents to stay any longer because they have brought nothing but shame to this province of ours. the government has lots of graft cases and was once interviewed inside a cockpit by gma 7. please the people need help to kick these people out because they have no business in governance.

4. Martin,

   Is anyone in the opposition, including poll watchers, and other watchdog organizations documenting any of this?

   Again, claims are good, but if the opposition really wants to help themselves, it would be good to document these allegations, including, but not limited to, recording the radio announcements, taking statements from witnesses, etc.

   If the opposition wants to effect change in this area, then they must work for it…

5. hello mlq3,

   any news on who the winners are in aurora province?

   thanks!

6. I’m pulling for most of TU but can someone verify the sources for the PPCRV Pampanga Results:

   http://ppcrvnamfrel.blogspot.com/2007/05/provincial.html

   _1_ARROYO,_JOKER_P.______________232,969_(20.72%)
   _2_PANGILINAN,_FRANCIS_N.________227,605_(20.24%)
   _3_RECTO,_RALPH_G._______________221,947_(19.74%)
   _4_DEFENSOR,_MICHAEL_T.__________209,249_(18.61%)
   _5_ANGARA,_EDGARDO_J.____________207,794_(18.48%)
   _6_PICHAY,_PROSPERO_JR._A._______207,458_(18.45%)
   _7_ZUBIRI,_JUAN_MIGUEL_F.________197,778_(17.59%)
   _8_SOTTO,_VICENTE_III_C._________169,182_(15.05%)
   _9_VILLAR,_MANUEL_JR._B._________163,858_(14.57%)
   10_LEGARDA,_LOREN_B._____________151,197_(13.45%)
   11_AQUINO,_BENIGNO_SIMEON_III____150,607_(13.39%)
   12_ESCUDERO,__FRANCIS_JOSEPH_G___150,014_(13.34%)

   It’s 7-4-1 for TU – the Opposition candidates occupy the last 4 slots.

7. And oh, by the way, the COMELEC just asked the TV networks to halt their quick counts! bwahahahaha. What the hell?!

8. “GMA News reported that in at least two precincts – precinct no. 46-A and 46-B, in the city’s JB Fernadez area, alleged vote padding and shaving did not spare any senatorial candidate – whether they come from Team Unity (TU), Genuine Opposition (GO) and other parties and tickets or running as independents.”

   This is what the Cat has been saying all along, Administration and Opposition will both be cheating

9. “Sabas Mabulo is being massively cheated Dato Arroyo in Camarines Sur.” Ellen Tordesillas.

   Such a very irresposible statement!

   If this is so why not lodge a protest in the COMELEC or Supreme court or what ever is the appropriate venue. Then prove the allegation

   Sabas Mabulos did not even claimed to be cheated in his press release. He conceded defeat gracefully and humbly. And admitted that he only won in two towns becuas ehe is ill prepared.

10. If the people does not want GMA, they should have elected straight GO.

    Even with the victory of six senators in the Senate, Congress is stil dominated by pro-admin senators and congressmen.

    The senators whose terms end in 2010.

    Pro-Admin

    1. Ramon Revilla, Jr.
    2. Miriam Defensor Santiago
    3. R. Gordon
    4. Lito Lapid
    5. Cayetano (sister)
    6. R. Biazon

    Opposition

    1. Estrada
    2. Enrile
    3. Madrigal
    4. Pimentel
    5. Alfredo Lim

    Alfredo Lim may vacate the position since he’s winning the mayoralty race in Manila (hurray).

    So what will be the composition of the Senate?

    6 + new 4 TU (this is according to the latest survey and I am sticking to my six)
    equals 10

    Assuming that Lim leaves…

    4 opposition + 6 new senators = 10

    Independent ( are you kidding?)

    2

    That makes 22 senators.

    Two vacancies ups for grabs? Which will the fountain bless?

    Correct me, if I am wrong.

    And while the people are focused on the Senate, what dominate the House of Representatives?

    After election, the strong contenders for presidential position in 2010 will become worse enemies.

11. Benj, the offensive against the tv networks are coming from the collective forces of (Administration, COMELEC, TU)…

    Trying to halt these counts instead of focusing on their cheating, ehem, operations…

    There’s been cheating all over the place, but it’s too early to tell whether it is massive enough to affect the Senate race.. But some local races have probably been affected..

12. Martin Bautista already conceded. My hats off to the guy.
    The excess donations that he received are being turned over to the Gawad Kalinga. We know that some of the candidates who have no choice of winning make money from election.
    They do not account for the excess or for the disbursements.

    So ask why there are many TRYING-HARD-CANDIDATES joining the
    election carnival even if they do not have the chance of winning? That is one legitimate way of raising of funds.

13. hi jake- batang baler is livelbogging the election results in aurora:

    http://batangbaler.net/baler/live-blogging-the-election-in-baler/#more-797

14. You can download the data here:

    http://www.inquirerbloggers.net/current/2007/05/16/who-is-the-majority/

    but please bear in mind the following:

    1. no administration, ever, has ever lost the house of representatives, even when presidents lost the presidency, their parties retained control of the house until the new presidents could get congressmen to switch parties (see results for 1953, 1961 and 1965). in fact it could be argued that since 1907, no opposition party has ever controlled the house: the lower house always belongs to the party of the incumbent. in which case it is no achievement for an incumbent to retain control of the house.

    2. bloc voting was abolished in 1951 and the last time a president ever secured a total sweep for his candidates in the senate was in 1955, and that was due to the magsaysay phenomenon. no president and no opposition party since has ever managed a complete sweep (see marcos’s strong senate victory in 1967 and the counter-revolt against marcos in 1971). we have only had one normal mid-term election since 1987, and that was in 1995 when FVR did well; we should have had one in 2001 but it became a referendum on edsa dos.

    3. If one bothers to do any reading at all on how dagdag-bawas is done, there are two main groups doing it:

    a) an administration nerve center directing things from manila
    b) local operators who sell votes to the highest bidder, including those who want to counter-act the efforts directed from manila

15. Can the COMELEC really stop the media from counting? It’s a press freedom issue. COMELEC can’t order a private entity from counting, can they? There’s always the caveat ‘partial, unofficial’ ek-ek anyway. And this is one time they HAVE to mention their source.

16. rego, i love your faith and confidence in the comelec. and your belief that dato’s people fought a fair fight (though personally i think dato himself conducted himself, from what i heard, with dignity and tact0. but you are right, sabas has spoken:

    http://eleksyon2007n.inquirer.net/view.php?article=20070516-66299

    and the only thing left to do is prepare for 2010. that way he can thwart the vote-buying and military intimidation (see his statement).

17. I tried to synthesize all the available results so far.
    http://www.atheista.net/?p=270

18. This just in from GMA News, Team Unity scored a 12-0 win in Maguindanao. *but the media team was not allowed to enter the canvassing venue

19. Mr. Quezon is simply wet in his analysis. Or too biased to even see his way through the haze. He clutches at straws and tries to make much ado about not much.

    The Senate race is a decoy meant to distract from the real prize, which is the congressional and local races. The Administration has not only survived, it has flourished, despite having a hostile Senate for the past 2 years. Things won’t be any different whether 12 additional hostile senators come into the picture. Although, as it is, 4 Administration senators winning is already a big bonus. The addition of Gringo, a loose cannon who has a history of double-crossing his allies, is actually beneficial to the Administration. Many of his RAM allies can attest to that and so can FPJ diehards, whom he abandoned for his own histrionics when the going got tough. And Ping, who has a history for hitting hard, yet pulling his punches when the administration is on the ropes. And for handing Malacañang to GMA by splitting the opposition in 2004. Ping can be “handled”. So the senate actually looks good for the administration. They can make all the noise but they can be ignored.

    The Congressional race has never looked better. A few scraps will be given here and there to parry cheating allegations. Pacquiao can be sacrificed. And Rufus Rodriguez can be tolerated. But overall, it looks very bright for the administration. De Venecia is back on the saddle and by a blowout. Even Dato Arroyo has won by a huge margin. See:
    http://eleksyon2007n.inquirer.net/view.php?article=20070516-66299
    Louie Villafuerte, Boy Nograles, Rudy Antonino, Raul del Mar, Monico Puentevella – all the President’s loyal henchmen in Congress will be back.
    Iggy Arroyo also won by a landslide and there’s even talk of making him the next Speaker of the House. See:
    http://www.sunstar.com.ph/static/bac/2007/05/16/news/iggy.is.next.house.speaker..html

    And in the local races, it has been mostly a choice between Lakas or Kampi. Heads the administration wins, tails the opposition still loses. A clever ploy, similar to having several brands competing within the same company. Create the illusion of a choice. The consumer will be happier for it.

    So, ignore the senate. Congress and the local officials are all it takes to survive and to flourish. Look at the stock market taking off like a rocket. Look at the exchange rate breaking past the new barriers. Look at the real estate market booming. It’s great! We expect to see great achievements between now and 2010.

    I suppose the futility of it all has dawned on the likes of Adel Tamano, who has lost his composure because he sees the handwriting on the wall. See:
    http://eleksyon2007n.inquirer.net/view.php?article=20070516-66290

    I hope Mr. Quezon can have the integrity to keep his perspective.

20. welcome back jude, juan dako, etc. you and cat might be right in that it really depends who makes it to the senate, even from the ranks of the opposition. but as for your reading of the importance of the house vs. the senate, and what retaining the house means, you can take a look at my inquirer current entry.

    http://www.inquirerbloggers.net/current/2007/05/16/who-is-the-majority/

    what’s at stake is whether the president gets a second wind or becomes a lame duck.

21. I personally believe the Lower House is more important too…Senate has lost its balls and has merely become a stage for the next presidential contenders. By all indications, the next elecitons is going to be even more interesting.

    Jeg, I believe Comelec’s contention was results were being released without attributing their precint sources. I think that’s only fair. If they stopped it altogether without giving broadcasters the option to correct the misstep, then that would certainly be out of line.

22. Mr. Quezon, your piece of analysis of previous senate election performances in is impressive. However, I must make a correction. In 1951, Quirino’s Liberal Party lost all 8 senate seats as could be seen in the Wikepedia entry for that particular election.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_general_election%2C_1951

    However, this only strengthens your conclusions, since the Nacionalistas, who got 8 out of 8 seats that elections, swept the next elections in a landslide under Magsaysay in 1953.

23. tonifranz, many, many thanks for the correction! yes, indeed, you’re right, as this inquirer editorial pointed out:

    http://opinion.inquirer.net/inquireropinion/editorial/view_article.php?article_id=58711

    so a strong opposition showing would at the very least, make it difficult for the president to anoint a successor in 2010.

24. Mr. Quezon,

    It could go both ways. In 1995, Mr. Ramos’s candidates, allegations of dagdag-bawas notwithstanding, won nine out of 12 seats as wikipedia points out.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_general_election%2C_1995

    But it lost massively in 1998, as Mr. Ramos’ anointed successor, Mr. De Venecia, was swamped by Mr. Estrada.

    In 2001, eight out of 12 Mrs. Arroyo’s bets won.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_general_election%2C_2001

    And in 2004, according to the official COMELEC count, Mrs. Arroyo narrowly won.

25. The Inquirer says that Comelec says that Honasan is at #16 and Trillanes is at #19. The Inquirer says that Namfrel says that Trillanes is #13.
    …
    As for Namfrel — at the end of the 2nd business-day after the polls closed, Namfrel at Green Hills has yet to tabulate votes from the precincts from Caloocan, Las Piñas, Makati, Malabon, Marikina, Navotas, Parañaque, Pasig, Pateros, Quezon City, San Juan and Taguig.

26. tonifranz, yes, and i think that’s cat’s point too, her argument is that among other things, the dynamics in the senate will change with lim’s going on to be mayor of manila. even if a majority of nominally opposition senators are elected, it remains to be seen just how independent they’d be.

    when fvr got a public endorsement by his party winning strongly in the senate, it paved the way for the chacha effort, and it wasn’t the senate that stopped that effort.

    the president, too, got a boost when her coalition won in 2001. and after 2004, she seemed poised to do well until 2005 when the whole situation changed yet again.

    but even if one assumes the senators elected this year are only nominally opposition, the public message is still clear: her party didn’t elect a majority in the upper house, which would still send the message that it’ll be the status quo until 2010, but we are entering the transition to a post-arroyo era. the question is whether the president will permit the initiative to slip away from her fingers or find a way to rally the faithful to at the very least, keep her relevant until 2010.

    the election, if it happens, of someone like trillanes, for example, is a very public slap on her face. no ifs and buts about it, and would set the public mood for considering her at best, a lame duck, and at worst, someone facing payback from her opponents after she steps down from office. if she does.

27. The Senate is important because it serves as a check and balance to Gloria and her minions.

    A big opposition victory in the Senate races will prove that the public rejects Gloria.

    Most local races are more dependent on local issues than national issues so a win by incumbents in local races doesn’t tell you anything about how the nation, as a whole, feels about the ruling cabal.

    If TU manages to change the results of the vote then it’s time for Cat, Bencab and gang to go home. We will emigrate.

28. Manuelbuencamino, count me on that last note..

29. wikipedia isn’t the best source of factual, historical information since anyone can put in data…

30. Mr. Quezon,

    I agree that a victory for a majority opposition in the Senate, even if only six or seven, would be a blow to the prestige and a loss of face for the administration.

    However for 2010, assuming Mrs. Arroyo steps down, the winner would go to the more popular candidate, not necessarily on who will or will not be anointed by Mrs. Arroyo. However, looking at the case of Mr. Sotto, a popular candidate could be dragged down by an unpopular anointment.

    We simply must look at the events of the next three years to see if an anointment by Arroyo in 2010 would be a “kiss of death” or a big booster.

31. Ca T,

    Mar Roxas is still a Senator till 2010 also.

32. Tonifrantz,

    Definitely, 3 years is a long time. The election just held, though, sets the stage for what is to come. The senate and everyone else, will have to face the coming issues: the need to either sell government assets or raise taxes to keep covering the deficit; the pressures on the budget from the announced 20 major infrastructure projects; the costs of a possible realignment in the house, as de venecia prepares to square off with luis villafuerte; the costs of another charter change effort; the legal confrontation that will arise from the anti terrorism law going into effect, etc. etc. etc.

    the president of course will gamble that if she can accomplish the “social payback” that was absent over the past few years, a more prosperous country will be a forgiving one.

33. I know I may be out of line but looking at 2010, I am going to vote Manolo Quezon for Senator, if there is still a Senate in 2010. And I encourage everyone who thinks Manolo deserve to share his analytical skills in the Upper House to give him a push. He is too happy analyzing and watching the parade pass him by. He should step up to the plate!

    Let’s give Manolo a big push! Anyone who wants to see him in the Senate, let’s start the bandwagon, start early and start it in the internet!

    Email me at lacierda at gmail dot com and let’s start a guerrilla campaign!

34. hey Jude, thanks for the very convincing analysis which actually reinforces mine. I’m impressed! If that doesn’t give the gloaters in this blog a way back to reality, inspite of lame spin by MLQ3 and his disciples, i don’t know what will.

    As things stand now, I really look forward to a brighter future for our country, e.g. the stocks soaring, the peso flourishing vs. the dollar, investors’ confidence at its all time high, budget and trade dificits in check, foreign borrowing and repayments down and up, respectively, graft and corruption prosecutions and convictions on the rise, among others, are very promising indeed.

    I might yet decide to keep my condo at the Fort for our retirement, and spend my pension there.

    mlq3, why do you constantly talk about reprisals against GMA when her term expires? Is this a personal thing?

35. If TU manages to change the results of the vote then it’s time for Cat, Bencab and gang to go home. We will emigrate.

    For Ca t and the gang to go home, they just simply pack their suitcases and board a plane, and for those who want to change places it might take a little while and maybe for some will have to wait after the next election. It is not that simple to get a green card, unless you are familiar with the way the politicians do theirs and even immigrating to other countries, each has to take his or her turn at the turnstile, unless of course you “know the way” how the Pinoy politics work.

    Well, of course for some with money, things could be worked out quick…

36. becnard, it’s a functional thing, going back to my objection to the incarceration of joseph estrada (by all means i said at the time and still do, lock him up after conviction but not before). that was an event that marked a turning point in how ex presidents would be treated. and this was before the president turned half the country bitterly against her. but now that we’ve gone down that path, it’s a fate that every president risks happening to them once they step down from office.

37. Yeah Jude, your analysis sure convinced Bencard. You should have read what he was saying before you came. What a turnaround.

38. Current Senators

    1. Ramon Revilla, Jr. – 39 years old
    2. Miriam Defensor Santiago – 62
    3. R. Gordon – 62
    4. Lito Lapid – 52
    5. Cayetano (sister) – 41
    6. R. Biazon – 72
    7. Mar Roxas – 50
    8. Estrada – 44
    9. Enrile – 83
    10. Madrigal – 49
    11. Pimentel – 74
    12. Alfredo Lim – 78

    Possible winners
    13. Legarda, Loren – 47
    14. Escudero, Francis Joseph – 37
    15. Lacson, Panfilo – 58
    16. Villar, Manuel Jr – 57
    17. Pangilinan, Francis – 43
    18. Aquino, Benigno Simeon III – 47
    19. Angara, Edgardo – 72
    20. Honasan, Gregorio – 59
    21.Trillanes – 35
    22.Alan Cayetano – 36
    23.Zubiri – 38
    24. Recto – 43

    Average age – 53.25 years old

39. “hey Jude, thanks for the very convincing analysis which actually reinforces mine. I’m impressed! If that doesn’t give the gloaters in this blog a way back to reality, inspite of lame spin by MLQ3 and his disciples, i don’t know what will.”

    You need someone to reinforce what you said?

40. Possible winners
    13. Legarda, Loren – 47
    14. Escudero, Francis Joseph – 37
    15. Lacson, Panfilo – 58
    16. Villar, Manuel Jr – 57
    17. Pangilinan, Francis – 43
    18. Aquino, Benigno Simeon III – 47
    19. Angara, Edgardo – 72
    20. Honasan, Gregorio – 59
    21.Trillanes – 35
    22.Alan Cayetano – 36
    23.Zubiri – 38
    24. Recto – 43

    Ummm… You’re counting Arroyo out?

41. Jude,

    How have Arroyo’s candidates, those fielded to take down key opposition figures, fared?

    Pacquiao – talo
    Lapid – talo
    Genuino – talo
    Dong Puno – talo
    Garcillano – talo

    What about reelectionist pro-impeachment reps as a whole? Winning or losing?

    Meanwhile, Villafuerte and de Venecia reelected might mean the fight between lakas and kampi will get worse.

    Kampi has moist eyes for the speakership which lies at the end of the rainbow coalition. Gloria wil have to pick the next speaker. Whoever is not chosen will certainly become pissed and there’s no Mike this time to salve hurt feelings.

    Sheer numbers make the next congress look like a heads she wins tails the opposition loses situation. But both Lakas and Kampi have their own agendas.

    Lakas is looking beyond 2010. It is bent on securing its position as the dominant party in all elective levels.

    We’re not sure if there’s life beyond 2010 for Kampi unless the Arroyos have a succession plan.

    As to the Rainbow Coalition.
    Nacionalistas will want to gear up for Villar’s candidacy.
    Liberals for Mar’s.
    NPC is looking at a Chiz three-pointer.
    Lacson in search of a party. So is Loren and Gordon.

    So from the looks of it, the ruling party’s coalition might not be as solid as it was during the 13th Congress.

    It certainly will be more expensive to maintain this time around. Who will pay the bill?

42. Manolo,

    I guess you’re right that every President should consider such fate similarly just as the Presidents of South Korea should ponder that possibility also.

    Though I just can’t remember if the SK Presidents were held on House arrest or totally locked up during their trial.

43. Manolo,

    Im not talking about fath in COMeLEC, Im talking about the irresponsible statement of Ellen. Substantiating the charges and filing the approaiate case in the proper venue. That way may kapupuntahan ang usapan at ang bansa m na rin….

44. As to the Rainbow Coalition.
    Nacionalistas will want to gear up for Villar’s candidacy.
    Liberals for Mar’s.
    NPC is looking at a Chiz three-pointer.
    Lacson in search of a party. So is Loren and Gordon.

    Mar would most likely team up with partymate Kiko, right? So that’s one pair. Kiko has to run for a higher office because he’s on his second term.

    Villar’s definitely in it to win – and I hope he does.

    Chiz for 2010? I really doubt it. If he does run, he’s not going to win.

    Lacson and Loren will kill each other for the right to be the presidential candidate.

45. in the end De Castro will be the next President…

46. mlq3, please educate me on this. Was PGMA ever accused of Plunder, like Erap?, If not, I doubt very much she would suffer the same fate as his. Apple and orange. Good comparison as far only as their being both fruit. Erap’s incarceration is a matter of law, not choice (by anyone, including you).

    Yes, rego. tordesillas (alleged “journalist”) has nothing but “irresponsible” rhetoric against PGMA and her administration. I saw her and that highly emotional guy from PCIJ (can’t remember the name) who wants “absolute” press freedom. The duo really give journalism a bad name.

47. Bencard,

    Gloria, like Erap, could be charged with plunder after she leaves Malacanan. The plunder charge against Erap was in the impeachment complaint. But he was arrested only after the charges of plunder was brought to the Sandigan. It’s not apples and oranges. It’s when the charges were actually filed before the proper forum.

    Read what your adopted country’s Founding Fathers have to say about press freedom. You will see that they were willing to put up with a whole lot more than what you accuse Ellen of doing.

48. Benj,

    Not disagreeing with your observation but the point I was trying to make was “So from the looks of it, the ruling party’s coalition might not be as solid as it was during the 13th Congress.
    It certainly will be more expensive to maintain this time around. Who will pay the bill?”

    I sense some new elements in the power equation and I’m trying to identify them.

    Do you think it’s smooth sailing hereon for Gloria? What do you see working in her favor or against it?

49. buencamino, to get an indictment for plunder, you need proof of probable cause convincing to the prosecutor. The prosecutor cannot be willy-nilly with respect to his responsibility because his job and personal integrity (if not sanity) would be on the line.

    I’m asking mlq3, not you (apparently you don’t know either), whether PGMA has ever been charged with plunder
    in a “proper forum”.

    In my adopted country, press freedom is not absolute and cannot be abused with impunity. I should know for I have both prosecuted and defended libel cases in this jurisdiction.

50. Iglesia ni Cristo electioneering in Antique:
    When the INC announced its choice of Pacificador, a good number of its members rebelled against their ministers and voted for Perez.

    The INC’s stand frightened some people who decided to flood the province with pictures of Antique’s hero, the late Gov. Evelio Javier in a pool of blood after he was murdered in February 1986 by goons suspected to be followers of Pacificador. The photos carried the caption, “Never Again.” The episode in Antique is a good lesson for the INC: it should choose whom it should back up; why did it support a suspected murder mastermind? In the same province, Rep. Exequiel Javier, Evelio’s brother, won over Robert Delfin by a small margin.
    —Posted May 17, 2007 01:25:00(Mla Time)
    Inquirer // Belinda Olivares-Cunanan

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