A tripartite coalition

Alan Peter Cayetano is reaping immense political rewards from the persecution launched by the President’s husband: I caught a bit of yesterday’s dialogue, and the Arroyo lawyers may be practicing good law, but were undertaking inferior politics.

Cayetano (to Atty. Arroyo): “Do you bank accounts abroad?”

Lawyer: “That is not relevant to this hearing!”

Cayetano: “Do you have any holdings abroad at all?”

Lawyer: “That is not relevant to this hearing!”

Cayetano: “So you don’t have any money at all in any bank abroad?”

Lawyer: “The existence of banks abroad has not been established, so such banks do not legally exist!”

Chairman: “Yes, the existence of banks or accounts, or even what accounts exist in banks and what the banks have as different kinds of accounts, none of these things have been entered into evidence and so they do not exist, which means, you cannot ask about them-“

Cayetano: “But I am impeaching the credibility of Mr. Arroyo, so I must ask if he denies having any accounts abroad at all, because if he says he doesn’t, and I can prove he does, then he isn’t believable, is he? And-“

Chairman: “We will vote on the objection! You lose! We win!”

Lawyer: “Nothing exists legally because nothing has been introduced as evidence, and no evidence can be introduced because nothing exists to introduce!”

I’m loosely paraphrasing, of course. The news reports are more precise. How this is politically beneficial for Cayetano is demonstrated by this simple headline: President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s trip to Switzerland.

Cory Aquino turns 74 today. Manny Pacquiao got 20 exemptions for firearms for the campaign season, courtesy of the Comelec. That was yesterday’s news. Today, MindaNews asks, is he running? And for what?

If only I knew more about sports, I might have had a better chance of getting the analogy right. I think in some sports there’s a system known as ladders, to determine either the composition of teams, or the manner in which teams compete. Anyway, as it’s turning out, there seem to be different sub-teams in the Us Vs. Them contest known as the Senate race.

I. United Opposition
1. Alan Peter Cayetano
2. Chiz Escudero
3. Koko Pimentel
4. Loren Legarda
5. Panfilo Lacson
6. JV Ejercito*
7. Tito Sotto* (had pitched a “4+1” ticket to Estrada: Gringo Honasan, Tessie Oreta, Tito Sotto, John Osmeña + Loren Legarda)
8. John Osmeña*

Of the UNO slate, Tito Sotto has jumped ship to the administration, bringing Tessie Oreta with him. That means a pretty high probability he will be dropped from the UNO slate. JV Ejercito isn’t too keen on running for the Senate, as his leaving the mayoralty of San Juan might cause political problems for them, and his constituents, ranging from big business, to resident’s groups, etc. are comfortable with him where he is. So he might simply run for re-election in San Juan. The Spoiler: John Osmeña, whom civil society will not support and who the political operators seem to believe won’t make for a strong candidate, anyway. So UNO has a firm 5-person slate (numbers 1-5 above).

II. LP-NP-PDP-Laban Coalition
1. Manny Villar
2. Ralph Recto
3. Joker Arroyo (he is running, after all, the political pros say)
4. Kiko Pangilinan
5. Noynoy Aquino

This was originally known as the “third force,” has since morphed into the “reelectionist bloc,” is more properly an LP-NP-PDP Laban Coalition. The Spoiler: the possible LDP addition: Edgardo Angara, which would ruffle UNO and Civil Society feathers.

III. Civil Society candidates
1. Sonia Roco
2. Adel Tamano

These are basically the names I’ve heard discussed as the ones to be endorsed.

I+II+III = 5+5+2 = 12. A full and pretty formidable slate, which won’t please everyone but won’t be a cause for infighting like some of the original slates mentioned; most of all, it could be put forward as a unified coalition slate. It’s important for all three components to put forward a unified slate, as it will leave no room for the administration to sneak in its candidates.

Of course it ain’t over until all the different groups iron out their respective slates and agree to a unified ticket, but I think the prospects are better than they’ve ever been.

Personally, as my column for today, The Amazing Race points out, I think UNO deserves credit for avoiding some of the more noxious personalities that wanted its endorsement; and a solid, 12-person slate for a tripartite coalition serves as a reassurance to the public that first, unity is possible, second, that it doesn’t mean succumbing to a surrender-to-the-Palace attitude, that third, it’s about much more than what the Palace says the race is about. My sense, though, is that there might be tensions between Ernesto Maceda and Jejomar Binay. Maceda is identified with the NPC, where Sotto and Oreta have moved, while Binay who is looking to the future and not back to the past in terms of what the slate should represent. (Incidentally, in my column I quote Migs Zubiri whom I ran into last Tuesday at ANC says he influenced the Speaker’s about-face in December; now see Newsbreak’s analysis of how it may be premature to think the Speaker is down and out on his political luck).

As for the Palace, rumors of a full slate remain just that, though what seems to be emerging, so far, is is its “Unity Ticket”:

1. Mike Defensor
2. Miguel Zubiri (who officially owns the rights to “Boom Tarat-tarat,” at a lower price than what others offered, because of his friendship with the composer)
3. Edu Manzano
4. Tessie Aquino-Oreta*
5. Tito Sotto*
6. Gilbert Teodoro*
7. Richard Gomez
8. Prospero Pichay

The rest will be for decoration. If it manages to get its six elected by whatever means, the administration wins, because a minimum of 8 new senators will have to be reliable in terms of impeachment, defending the senate, and opposing shenanigans involving the constitution, etc., to keep the administration on its toes (the asterisks for Sotto and Oreta indicate their affiliation with the NPC, whose big chief is you-know-who, and you-know-who’s bottom line is an accomodation with the PCGG, so his people will toe the party line to be sure).

In the punditocracy, the Inquirer editorial looks at concern even among Palace allies, over its Iloilo invasion.

Filomeno Sta. Ana III focuses in more scientific terms, on the exchange rate problem:

Although the adverse effect on exporters is commonly emphasized, it must be pointed out that domestic producers for the local market, whose inputs are mainly local, likewise suffer from a continuing peso appreciation. A peso appreciation makes the prices of competing imports cheaper. Hence, local producers lose market share, grabbed from them by imports. A qualification though is in order: The simulation done for Philexport, using 2002 data obtained by ADB, revealed a slight decline (-0.18 percent) in average sales of net importers.

In fine, the continued appreciation of the peso, leading to its overvaluation, is injurious to the real, productive sector of the economy, negatively affecting employment and income.

Lito Banayo takes a more satirical approach to the same thing.

Newsbreak has pointers on how to view political ads.

Philippine Commentary reacts to last Tuesday’s The Explainer. While in The Digitial Pinoy, a viewer reacts to a recent appearance I made on GMA7’s Reporter’s Notebook.

Anyone interested in how diplomacy between allies works, and how the United States doesn’t let emotions intrude into its dealings even with its closest allies, should watch Mortgaged to the Yanks. Apparently, it wasn’t until December 31, 2006 that the UK paid off its war debts to the USA. The story of how the United States thwarted John Maynard Keynes’ efforts to secure favorable economic terms at the end of World War II, makes for fascinating viewing.

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Manuel L. Quezon III.

36 thoughts on “A tripartite coalition

  1. So the goody-goody opposition is beginning to realize a basic reality about Erap.

    “You can’t live with him but you can’t live without him”. Or “you can;t lube with him but you can’t kill him off either”

    Hard as it may be to see, there is still a choice between a shit and an asshole.

  2. In the congressional ethics committee proceeding, the complainants are the Arroyo congressmen, versus Rep. Alan Peter Cayetano, on complaints of “improper conduct and disorderly behavior”. In every proceeding, it is the prosecution/ complainant/ accuser who has the burden of proof; the prosecution/ complainant/ accuser needs to show by substantial evidence that the respondent committed the acts stated. So… what constitutes “improper conduct and disorderly behavior”? It would be enlightening if there are precedents; if there are none, the precedent that would be made here is: Delivering a privilege speech where the congressman used documents from his sources, and said family members of the President had bank accounts in HypoVereinsbank, and where the subject of the privilege speech showed a bank certificate from HypoVereinsbank Germany that said there was no money in his name; but HypoVereinsbank has 200 branches all over the world; constitutes “improper conduct and disorderly behavior” on the part of the congressman who delivered the speech. That would be the precedent. [Rep. Alan Cayetano can make a proffer of evidence if he cares to {evidence he was not allowed to bring out in the hearings)] The rest of the TV fare was entertainment. (me: paraphrasing:“Why don’t you go with me to Munich?!” “Why will I?!” “Why won’t you?!” “Why not?!” “Why should I?!” “I don’t like to!” “Because you’re campaigning!” “You’ll snuff me in the seats you’re too big even for first class” “Why don’t you sign a waiver (of secrecy of bank deposits)?” “Why should I?” “Why won’t you?”)

  3. mlq3,

    For Senators:

    Alan Peter Cayetano
    Chiz Escudero
    Koko Pimentel
    Loren Legarda
    Panfilo Lacson
    Manny Villar
    Ralph Recto
    Joker Arroyo
    Kiko Pangilinan
    Noynoy Aquino
    Sonia Roco
    Adel Tamano

  4. love the 5+5+2 equation above i may. i’ll just place kiko, joker, and ralph at the bottom 3 in the meantime pending the revelation of the exact slates pitted against the administration’s the fors.

    i’m glad of the young ejercito’s 2nd thoughts…i hope john o. is eventually dropped from the UNO slate…and i’m ecstatic about tito’s and t.a.o.’s jump to the other side!

    …yeng’s hawak kamay love song may prove to be a fitting jingle for this tripartite coalition…for in unity there is love.

  5. Finally I have someone to vote for from the Opposition slate. Joker Arroyo, Sonia Roco, and Adel Tamano….And the way administration slate is shaping up. looks like my ballot will have 9 unfilled slots. No way that I will fill up my ballot just for the sake of filling it up…..

  6. Truly easier to talk about the personalities, yet there really are bread-and-butter (plus the body) issues the Filipinos face, and the candidates should be encouraged to verbalize their approaches to the following:
    (1) increasing health-care coverage. If there is no money in the budget, then at least talk about (a) coverage for 15-years-and-younger; (b) low-cost medicine for 55-and-older; (c) everyone else;
    (2) law-and-order : (a) many CPP/NPA gangs still active; (b) many regular folks (plus media and leftist activists) victimized by assaults, murders, thievery;
    (3) competitiveness :
    ..(3-a) people-assets: education/training;
    ..(3-b) infrastructure
    (4) cost-of-living : energy costs, food
    (5) wages/salaries

  7. UPn,

    Maganda ng sana kung ang politika sa Pilipinas ay pwede pag usapan ang mga issues. How I wish!!!!

    You can invite these candidates to a forum or a tv talk show. They will talk about their stand on the different issues and their programs but when they got elected they suddenly developed and “amnesia”. And majority of them has a very low party loyalty rating. You ar enot even sure if those endorse by Erap will really vote for the conviction of Gloria comes impeachment

    To me the best way is not to talk about it. Better dig into their records. The reelectionist have their previous records. And for new comers check their private and public accomplishments in life. That will tell almost everything.

  8. well bernardo nothing is final pa naman. Wait and see na lang muna tayo.

    What I dont understand is that pople have focused soooo much on the senate. And even people are pinning so much hope on these candidates like they are the saving grace of the state of the country… Only to be frustrated later on. You know the cliche been there than that and we are still on the same rut.

  9. bencard,

    are you still into this blog? You stated before that you are a divorce lawyer and i very very concerned about the divorce proceedings of the “husband” of my cousin. I am very concerned that my cousin woudl not want to consult a lawyer when she is very much affected by it. Can I email you privately?

    The situation is like this. My cousin did not know that the man she married and live with for the past 15 years was already married. They got married in Manila but they are now US citizens. Now the original wife is already in the US and is seeking a divorce and a child support. I was trying to convince very very hard my cousin to consult a lawyer to protect her interests as well as her two daughters with him but to no avail…

    Im just very very concern about this. And I have so many questions. I tried talking to a lawyer but they wont intertain me without bringing my cousin You can email me at [email protected].

  10. “Migs Zubiri whom I ran into last Tuesday at ANC says he influenced the Speaker’s about-face in December.”

    however the Speaker turns his face around, it still looks yoda to me.

    in bukidnon, migs’ boom tarat-tarat sounds boom taray-taray.

  11. Excellent point UPNstudent, that’s what I’m always waiting for.. health care.. for God sake.. health care.. just talk about it.. it’s not going to kill anyone

  12. cayetano?
    he is just on a fishing expedition! truth of the matter is he’s got nothing to support his allegation. nada!zero!

    where is fairness in this. accuse first then look for evidence? no matter how you see it, he’s the biggest ingrate that there is.

    and what does it make of him aligning with erap now that atong admitted that there really was 130 million tobacco tax diversion?

    and your giving him political reward for such improper behaviour? read ms lambino again.

  13. Unfortunately not many people know what else the U.K. gave up to the Yanks in payment for Lend Lease. It is ironic that everyone credits business with the creation of new technologies when the history of the last century proves otherwise. Empire does have ite benefits.

    Two cases in point which are very relevant today:

    Harold Wilson, Memoirs: 1916-1964 (1986)

    “Lend-Lease also involved Britain’s surrender of her rights and royalties in a series of British technological achievements. Although the British performance in industrial techniques in the inter-war years had been marked by a period of more general decline, the achievements of our scientists and technologists had equalled the most remarkable eras of British inventive greatness. Radar, antibiotics, jet aircraft and British advances in nuclear research had created an industrial revolution all over the developed world. Under Lend-Lease, these inventions were surrendered as part of
    the inter-Allied war effort, free of any royalty or other payments from the United States. Had Churchill been able to insist on adequate royalties for these inventions, both our wartime and our post-war balance of payments would have been very different.”

    “The Attlee Government had to face the consequences of this surrender of our technological patrimony, but there was worse to come. Congress had voted Lend-Lease until the end of the war with Germany and Japan and no longer. When the European war ended, most people expected the conflict with Japan to last for another year or so. The atomic bombs on Nagasaki and Hiroshima ended that assumption. Almost within the hour, President Truman, unwillingly no doubt, but without any choice in the matter, notified Attlee that Lend-Lease was being cut off. At that time it was worth £2,000 million a year. There was no possible means of increasing our exports to the United States to earn that sort of sum. Britain was in pawn, at the very time that Attlee was fighting to exert some influence on the postwar European settlement. The only solution was to negotiate a huge American loan, the repayment and servicing of which placed a burden on Britain’s balance of payments right into the twenty-first century.”

    During the First World War the U.S. Navy took over the Operations of American Marconi Wireless. After the war then Secretary of the Navy Roosevelt instead of returning the company to British control had G.E., Westinghouse, AT&T and United Fruit take over. Thus was born RCA From this technology plus further advances resulting from this the U.S. government gave these companies a monopoly for making a lot of money. This was one of the most important compnenets of the early days of the military industrial complex that to this day drives the American economy. The American government had bestowed great wealth on a few.

    Anyone for free trade and free markets?

  14. The only practical, legal correct and moral issue on Philippine Commentary’s blog concerns Edsa II. GMA continues to be a de-facto President with no legal basis.
    On the Dred Scot decison in the SC as an analogy. In practice and legally the U.S. S.C. was correct. The decsion was constituionally based. Morally they did not have a leg to stand on.
    “Abolitionists were incensed. Although disappointed, Frederick Douglass, found a bright side to the decision and announced, “my hopes were never brighter than now.” For Douglass, the decision would bring slavery to the attention of the nation and was a step toward slavery’s ultimate destruction.”

    Lincoln bound by the Constitution did not disagree with the decision. However as head of the Republic he was bound to defend the Union. He suggested a constitutional amendment to clear up the issues on slavery. The South started the fight (Fort Sumpter) and he did not back down and took the battle to them.

    When challenge comes to break down legal institutions and the institutions bend and crack you will have planted the seeds of anarchy.

    No matter how bad the perception of GMA and her hubby is they know the system is broken. That is Davide’s greatest legacy to this country.

    It is a good idea to let DILG Secretary run wild with his police. Hubris will always creates its own nemesis. It is the nature of the beast.

    The country will plod along till then. To quote W, this is a comma in the history of these islands.

  15. Koko Pimentel and Alan Peter Cayetano should also reconsider and follow JV Ejercito. I agree with former Senator Kit Tatad. The Senate for moral reasons should not be turned into a Family Ball!

  16. And on top of that, they are not winnable anyway. Koko Pimentel can not even win in his home town…. As for Cayetano, well his being an ingrate will surely have a back lash on him. There will be an issue of loyalty. Look at what happened to Dinky Soliman.

  17. Rego says on what voters should do, about the health-care issue : “… To me the best way is not to talk about it. Better dig into their records. And for new comers check their private and public accomplishments in life. That will tell almost everything.”
    And Marichu shows the conversation:
    ..candidate asks: “Ano ho ang maipaglilingkod ko sa inyo?”
    ..Community says :”Ang taas-taas ho ng presyo ng gamot, paano ho ba ito?”
    ..”I know how you feel. Iyan din ang sabi ng driver ko at our maids.”
    ..”Ahhh… what will you do about the high cost of medicine?” “Look in my records. I pay my driver enough so he can buy his medicine.”
    ..”Paano ho iyoung ibang tao?” “…Look in my records. Huwag na nating pag-usapan iyan. Boom-boom–tararat…boom-boooom–tarat…”

  18. You are talking too much about CAYETANO, PIMENTEL ,
    ZUBIRI …


    CRIME !!!

  19. politics is a deadly disease indeed.makes people get dementia.

    Look at Pia Cayetano’s remark

    Senator Cayetano said her family would be the first to comply with a law against political dynasties—if one existed.


  20. cayetano?
    he is just on a fishing expedition!

    i don’t know. that’s what they said about lacson’s expose into the pidal accounts. bawal raw ang xeroxed or authenticated copies ni lacson… na ni-“rescue” raw nila si udong mahusay dahil kinidnap ni lacson sya… arroyo’s former senate allies tried to run interference for the admin during the investigations… now the admin wants the senate abolished, lol…

  21. The C at,

    The issue about political dynasty now is political, not yet legal. In fact no law has yet been passed that defines what a political dynasty is and is not.

    My views about the issue:
    One good Pimentel is enough; one bad Arroyo is too much.

    Cheating is a crime; political dynasty-ism is a legitimate option.

    GMA complaining about opposition political dynasties is like a carnapper complaining about others’ traffic violations.

    If it takes political dynasties of opposotionists to kick out a cheat, so be it; let’s go for Koko, Alan and JV. Let’s deal with this dynasties later. That’s the risk we have to take.

    Before we start the great debate on politicaal dynasties, beware, it’s the cheat who’s now bringing it up.

  22. cayetano?
    he is just on a fishing expedition!

    oh i don’t know. that’s what they said about lacson’s expose into the pidal accounts too…. na bawal raw ang xeroxed or authenticated copies ni lacson… na ni-“rescue” raw nila si udong mahusay dahil kinidnap ni lacson si udong para gamitin laban kay Big Mike… arroyo’s former senate allies ran interference for Big Mike during the investigations… now the admin wants the senate abolished, lol…

  23. Cayetano sees no need for an ‘expedition’ to Germany that FG insists. The Big Fish can be ‘caught in the mouth’ not by what he says but by what he doesn’t: “I do not maintain an account at the bank.” Why can’t he say: “I NEVER maintained an account at the bank.”?

  24. The burden of proof is on Cayetano. The burden of proof has to be on Cayetano. The burden of proof always has to be on the accuser.
    /.. I would dread to see the day that Filipinos change the laws of the land to shift the burden of proof on the accused. I’d hate to see the State grab MLQ3, toss him him for crimes against the state and say “We accuse you. You allow Carlos Valderama Jugostani, MariaLuisa Lambanog, Johnnny Weismuller Tansan, Anna Joma-ChuuchuuWaa Bruxellama, and other bloggers to post anti-administration entries on your site that encourage the military to violate sections of the constitution and to incite general unrest. We accuse you, and you remain in jail until you prove your love for this country.”
    /.. The plump first gentleman need not say a word. It is Cayetano who, not with innuendos but with documents and other evidence, who has to prove what he wants to prove.

  25. The burden of proof is on Cayetano. The burden of proof has to be on Cayetano. The burden of proof always has to be on the accuser. – UPn Student

    In itself true, but in a political and cultural landscape where delicadeza is non-existent and impunity is the norm, even that standard (burden of proof) is losing its value in our society.

  26. Cayetano is doing it the wrong way. You just can’t take the lawyer out of a lawyer, I guess. He is defending himself before the Ethics Committee as though it were a libel case. How degrading for a congressman! Since he must be one of Bernas’s favorite students by now, he should consult the enlightened Jesuit regarding his parliamentary rights.

  27. Cayetano, of course, could also be seeing this as an opportunity to bait the Arroyos into something. He could be turning this affair into an Arroyo trial. People we know in common attest to the brilliance of this member of the lower house. Maybe, he is well aware of his parliamentary rights so he is not rushing into using it and miss out on the opportunity to expose the Arroyos.

  28. Why I will not vote for Pitir Cayetano.

    1. Pia is already in the Senate.

    2. Poor performance in congress, what has he got to show apart from hot air?

    3. I wanted to see the Arroyo’s pinned for corruption, if they were true. But it seems, all he’s got are hot air. No evidence. Anyone can accuse anybody of anything – but for him to do it for media mileage because he is running for the Senate leaves a bitter taste. A sign that he is going to be a worst trapo, ever. I feel he is simply fooling us to get elected in the Senate.

    4. He is too noisy, and we have a saying. Ang latang maingay ay ____. Ang balong malalim ay___.

    Thus, I prefer Escudero a lot. He is a mile away better than Cayetano.

  29. I too may not vote for him but it will not be for pointing an accusing finger without evidence. The Arroyos seek shelter in the Rules of Court but when engaged, they retreat back to the House Rules wherein the majority (which they control) wins. Let us not apply the standards of the courts on Cayetano because they are not there. Otherwise, he would have employed the various modes of discovery and the FG cannot say that some areas are “none of your business.” The failure of Cayetano to prove his allegations is the failure of the forum, the House of Representatives itself.

  30. To say that Chiz Escudero is a mile away from Peter Cayetano is an understatement. I will pick Escudero over Cayetano anyday!

  31. Salaam to everyone.

    Thank you Rego for your comments.

    Honestly, I am surprised with Civil Society’s vote of confidence in me, particularly because of the fact that there are a lot of more well-known and qualified candidates, as pointed out by the others in this forum, like Randy David and Rissa Hontiveros, among others.

    Moreover, I am seriously concerned by the fact that there aren’t other Muslim leaders who are being considered as possible Senatorial candidates. Certainly there are many Moros out there that have more experience and expertise in politics. As for me, I am not in any sense a “leader” or a “politician;” I see myself more as an academic, mostly on Constitutional Law matters, and a legal practitioner.

    On the issue of the need for a Muslim Senatorial candidate, allow me to say this – One of the pre-conditions for this nation’s full development is a stable and lasting peace in Mindanao. This cannot happen unless we have Moro representatives in the highest sectors of government articulating Muslim concerns and interests. This point is not a self-serving endorsement – there are many qualified Muslims – but rather an objective assessment of the current failure of the peace process in Mindanao and the obvious marginalization of Moros in higher-level policy-making.

    Finally, my hope is that issues that affect Muslim Filipinos will also be an integral part of the discourse in choosing our country’s future leaders.

    – Adel Abbas Tamano

  32. Alan Peter Cayetano vs. Mike Arroyo

    This young but brash and foolish senator is a whinner.
    To ask Mike Arroyo for a universal waiver on non existing
    bank account in Euroupe is stupid. As always the burden
    of proof is on his side. He has the makings of a trapo and
    just earning mileage points for his senate bid. PGMA already made a waiver to this particular German bank of its non-existence what else does Cayetano want. If Cayetano accuses me of having an affair with Tekla de la Cruz, I wil seek Tekla’s sworn statement that we didn’t have any. But to be asked to produce a waiver that I am not having an affair with any woman is nobody’s business
    and unethical. Kudos to the Ethics Commitee!

  33. But to be asked to produce a waiver that I am not having an affair with any woman is nobody’s businessand unethical. – firerooster

    So when it comes to the Arroyo couple, hidden wealth is none of the public’s business? Such arrogance. Mr. Thatcher must be spinning in his grave.

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