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May 07

The Comeback Kids

Estrada Binay

If the maximum point of peril -for the elections being postponed- was Wednesday, until this afternoon, there were still rumblings that the President had gone back to wanting a postponement. The last pre-election survey may have something to do with this, but then again, the momentum had already shifted to Aquino: on April 29 Amando Doronila who has been observing elections since the Magsaysay campaign already called it A landslide in the making. This is in the post-Edsa sense of the word, in terms of the margin of the winning candidates’ edge over his nearest rival; but also offers up prospects of the first majority win since 1986. It is entirely within the realm of possibility, given the large number ((9% give or take) of undecided voters. What is troubling for the usual suspects is that these numbers do not leave much wiggle room for either shaving Aquino’s votes or padding his opponents’.

Finally, this afternoon, the Supreme Court issued a statement saying it had rejected the petitions to postpone the elections.

So the story on everybody’s lips today -whether one attended any of the Mitings de Avance- is this. The Estrada-Binay tandem are front and center, based on the last pre-election survey, by SWS, which was formally released today but leaked yesterday.

Estrada has overtaken Villar for second place in the presidential derby (though Aquino has a two-to-one lead over Estrada)

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While Binay has zommed up in direct proportion to how Legarda is crashing, putting Binay neck-and-neck with Roxas. SWS lists Binay first because he has a fractional margin over Roxas.

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So the big story is: they’re baaack! And political junkies are are atwitter over the hows and whys. It might be good at this point to review what public opinion polling has been saying since my last update on this (see Second Leg, March 12, 2010).

Social Weather Stations‘ May 2-3 poll is the freshest; the two other surveys most political camps consider seriously are Pulse Asia and the in-house effort of The Manila Standard Today. A good reading on the role of surveys is in Random Salt: A consensus in the making.

In chronological order, starting April, here were the surveys prior to the latest (May) SWS:

I. Social Weather Stations April 16-19 survey. This has the most complete reporting of interesting data, though SWS says on its website it will publish corresponding updates 2-3 days after BusinessWorld published its findings (today).

For President:

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By socio-economic class (trends and breakdown)

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By region:

For the National Capital Region and Balance Luzon (basically 56% of voters):

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For the Visayas:

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For Mindanao:

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For Vice-President:

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II. Manila Standard Today April 25-27 survey.
For President:
tables-mst-poll-04_25-27_2010By region/socio-enomic class:

tables-mst-poll-04_25-27_2010-1st-article-043010

tables2-mst-poll-04_25-27_2010-1st-article-043010

For Vice-President:
mst-poll-04_25-27_2010-2nd-article-043010

By region/socio-economic class:

tables3-mst-poll-04_25-27_2010-2nd-article-043010

tables2-mst-poll-04_25-27_2010-2nd-article-043010

III. Pulse Asia April 23-25 survey.

(As always, check out the blog alphanumeric for analysis. See also Mon Casiple’s The last survey.)

For President:

table1_PVP_PESapril2010-1

table2_PVP_PESapril2010

For Vice-President:

table3_PVP_PESapril2010table4_PVP_PESapril2010

The three major surveys all serve to act as checks on each other; Pulse has been the first to report, the MST poll tends to come in the middle, and SWS is last in the survey cycle: hence, in the findings reproduced above, SWS represented the end of the March-April cycle and Pulse kicked off the final April-May cycle. But the latter two generally confirms the findings of the first.

Estrada’s numbers were generally steady, but dipped then recovered as Villar’s numbers dipped; Villar ofr his part lost momentum while failing to send Aquino into a sustained dive -instead, he held steady and has regained momentum at the last part of the campaign.

Binay has made a series of significant jumps (the first in Dec.-Jan.), particularly as Legarda’s numbers have crashed -his gains in direct relation to Legarda’s losses. Roxas, on the other hand, has been gliding downwards.

There’s an interesting story here, and it’s about the clash in approaches to campaigning evident in all the campaigns: between those who believed in “air war” and those who believe in “ground war.”

The most extreme practitioner, perhaps, was Villar who believed in carpet-bombing; but his efforts failed; Aquino has had a mixed record in terms of the air war both in terms of initial logistics and an evolving ad strategy; Estrada and Binay, however, stuck to a tried-and-tested formula and in this, while Estrada has regained his former numbers, it’s Binay who perhaps offered something more attractive to voters -the Makati Dream.

Roxas may have been too focused on Legarda, not noticing Binay chugging along, gaining momentum until that momentum had already been reached -Escudero’s declaration in favor of Aquino-Binay being the open declaration of coming in for the kill. This points to another interesting phenomenon: that there are supporters of Aquino more comfortable with Binay as Veep than Roxas.

At the same time, in terms of the ground war, Aquino has proven himself an able campaigner on the stump, while Estrada from the start went on the stump in traditional style: only the two have been reported as really being able to excite large crowds. So as with all things, the dividends seem to be going to the candidates who managed to strike a balance between air and ground war methods.

45 comments

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  1. ramrod

    Talo na tayo lahat, someone has a direct line to God and he’s on Gloria’s side… :(

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYwF88arI64

  2. The Equalizer Post

    “Presidential campaigns are about storytelling. A winning presidential campaign presents the candidate’s life story to voters. A losing campaign allows someone else to frame that story.” From “The Way To Win,The Way To The White House in 2008

    Noynoy did it right.The anti-corruption story goes well with the Aquino brand

    In contrast, Mar Roxas allowed Binay to reframe his story ( who is the true opposition?) SAD. It could have been the fight between the incorruptible and the corrupted.

  3. Jao Romero

    anak ng letse naman. huminay kasi ang TV ad ni MAR, samantalang mas lalo lang tumindi ang kay Binay. pati nga ako di ko mapigilang ma-LSS sa campaign jingle ni Binay. “kay Binay, may libre kang tinapay.. owohh, wooh, ohhh….”

    hay buhay. babaguhin ko tuloy ang boto ko para makatulong lang wag manalo si Binay. akalo ko kasi commanding lead na si MAR kaya kay Bayani na lang ako boboto (noon). amf. ayoko sanang mag tandem LP sa Pres at VP eh. gusto ko may check and balance ang Pres at VP. wag lang si Binay, naman.

  4. genitalman.michael

    ako rin…papalitan ko ang boto ko para hindi manalo si Binay…

  5. Carl Cid Inting

    If Binay wins and Mar fails, it shows that Noynoy Aquino is either:
    a) a very weak leader because failed to take an irrefutable stand regarding his running mate. Or:
    b) Noynoy can’t be trusted because he shafted his running mate in order to ensure he comes out on top. Or:
    c) All of the above.

    As for Mar, this is an eye-opener. Politics is a very dirty game. Never let your guard down. You can’t trust even your own running mate.

  6. mlq3

    None of the above. Aquino’s commitment to Roxas has always been there. But it does point to a sub-story of the current campaign, which is, the initial moves in the Escudero-Roxas 2016 had already started taking place and complicated the situation.

  7. drdavisjr

    What I see as the saddest event unfolding in this election is the comeback of Joseph Estrada in the surveys. While I strongly believe that it will be too little too late for Erap, the fact that he is even within striking distance is a disgrace to the Filipino people and the entire nation. It only shows how small the educated population is.

  8. Carl Cid Inting

    The fact is that Noynoy has, over the course of the campaign, shown his lack of leadership and immaturity. He has demonstrated a willingness to straddle all sides of the fence as well. His flip-flops over the Human Reproduction bill, his reflexive and reckless call for another “Edsa”, his woolly stance on Hacienda Luisita and his all-too-willing collaboration with Chiz Escudero on a duplicitous and subversive gambit that would only undermine his own running mate, are proof that Noynoy is weak, uninsightful and impulsive.

    This early, it is clear that he is captured by vested interests and is only an all-too-willing puppet for a hodgepodge group of oligarchs, politicians and NGO types. Apparently, there are already groups within his group jockeying for control over Noynoy. And some are wary of the Mar Roxas group, as they will be competition. It is no secret that groups within the Aquino camp are very happy to see the Mar Roxas campaign sabotaged. This will be a portent of things to come. Given time, the Noynoy camp will suffer the same fate of infighting and drift that the Cory administration experienced. That is what happens when the leader doesn’t know his head from his toes.

  9. SoP

    What a sad state of affairs that these jocks are already preparing to mount the horse come 2016.

    But the horse is dying, they’re fat and would want to milk the horse ’til it drops or break its back.

    And for what? To say they rode the horse. To be in the history books. The superficiality of the minds of these people is blood boiling.

  10. Carl Cid Inting

    It’s incredible how Noynoy has contributed to reviving the once moribund Chiz Escudero’s fortunes. Should Binay win, Chiz will be seen as a kingmaker and a Midas who could turn a struggling campaign into gold. Noynoy was a willing accomplice to Chiz’s revival. He participated in Chiz’s ads, which also built up Jojo Binay. Unwitting accomplice or co-conspirator? You can fool the people some of the time, but you can’t fool the people all of the time. The people will eventually know the truth about Noynoy.

  11. nick

    Agree with Carl. But I think there is mutual benefit between the two. Chiz has contributed also to the success of Noynoy’s campaign increasing the lead of Noynoy over the other presidential candidates. If Mar losses to Binay, then Chiz will definitely be the man to beat in the 2016 presidential election considering all of his potential opponents have all been considerably weakened in this present political campaigning, such as, Loren, Villar, Mar, and including Noli. Even if Mar wins over Binay, Chiz could still be the canadidate to reckon with in 2016 since he was faring better than Mar in the surveys for presidentiables prior to the campaign period. Possible other strong contenders for president in 2016 are Jinggoy and Bong Revilla.

  12. mlq3

    The only thing he has demonstrated is an ability to head a large and expanding coalition to the frustration and horror of those who had bought into the administration’s talking points since 2005. I’m curious by which measure you’re referring to in your catalog above. Flip flopping how? In nuancing his position to make it more inclusive of religious sentiment while adhering to the non-negotiables the religious conservatives even refuse acknowledge, such as, that overpopulation is a problem? Flip-flopping in clarifying he wanted greater clarity in certain positions -and in contrast to the outright reversal of the others, which you seem to be OK with? Even his stance on the importance of sex education is noxious to the Church and a deviation from the total surrender of the other candidates.

    His reflexiveness and reckless call for what? He did not call for an Edsa but stated a fact: the public is unlikely to accept any effort to extend GMA in power or to subvert the elections. And he made these warnings at points when the administration was angling precisely to try to postpone the election and so forth.

    What wooly stance on Luisita? That he did not toe the ideological line of his critics? That he asserted that it is properly an internal matter but one he is pledged to resolve -as one of the parties involved- in the direction of social justice? If there’s been any group subversive of his campaign, it’s his Escudero allies and Aquino has been forthright about his commitment to Roxas. The rest is selective on your part -for example, as if there has ever been an administration devoid of factions, here or anywhere else.

  13. ramrod

    #

    This early, it is clear that he is captured by vested interests and is only an all-too-willing puppet for a hodgepodge group of oligarchs, politicians and NGO types. Apparently, there are already groups within his group jockeying for control over Noynoy. And some are wary of the Mar Roxas group, as they will be competition. It is no secret that groups within the Aquino camp are very happy to see the Mar Roxas campaign sabotaged. This will be a portent of things to come. Given time, the Noynoy camp will suffer the same fate of infighting and drift that the Cory administration experienced. That is what happens when the leader doesn’t know his head from his toes.
    ——————————————

    On the contrary, I think Noynoy is proving he has control and this constant underestimation of his detractors will prove detrimental to them in the long run.

    “When weak feign strength, when strong feign weakness…” was that Sun Tzu?

  14. ramrod

    Carl Cid has already made up his mind about Noynoy and I guess will have a ready “that no good bastard!” every time Noynoy sneezes… :)

  15. Carl Cid Inting

    None are so blind as those who refuse to see. Anyhow, the point is that Noynoy’s knee-jerk reactions have shown him to be impulsive, immature and imprudent. Many others have observed and commented on this as well, so it cannot be a mere minority opinion.

    I have consistently held the view that I will hope for the best, but will be prepared for the worst. No sense in putting all the eggs in one basket and, unlike some people, I have no illusions about Noynoy. Interestingly, both CNN and the Wall Street Journal have commented that “rather than buckling down to pulling up their country by the bootstraps, Filipinos are prone to looking for a quick fix or turning to messianic figures”. And our consistently poor economic and social situation bears this out. Much like the hapless gambler, we foolishly wait for the big jackpot instead of doing the solid, hard work.

    We can agree to disagree for now, then compare notes after the mid-term. Because I have a stake in the betterment of our country, I hope I don’t have to say “I told you so”. :-)

  16. ramrod

    “rather than buckling down to pulling up their country by the bootstraps,
    ——————————-

    Precisely why I’m giving the inexperienced Noynoy a chance, without a dominant, strong, highly visible, micro managing, leader – we will have to work together and roll up our sleeves and get dirty…all he has to do is level the playing field, restore the checks and balances, and discourage the animosity of the classes…

  17. Carl Cid Inting

    “all he has to do is level the playing field, restore the checks and balances, and discourage the animosity of the classes…”

    He! He! :-) While that’s not even getting beyond the tip of the iceberg, it’s still a tall order which I personally don’t think Noynoy is capable of fulfilling. As I said, let’s wait and see. I just hope I don’t have to say “I told you so”. And, by the way, CNN and the Wall Street Journal aren’t that optimistic either.

  18. Carlos V Jugo

    Carl Sid can’t wait to say “i told you so”.

  19. Carl Cid Inting

    Let’s just wait and see. I can wait. As a matter of fact, I’m more charitable than others. I’m much more willing to give Noynoy supporters the benefit of the doubt. I can patiently wait until the mid-term, while others are giving it a year, or less. :-)

  20. ramrod

    I’m confident that the private sector, (if allowed to flourish in a level playing field) will be able to do all the needed bootstrap pulling…its the government that has to shape up (especially on the accountability side and budget management), of course there’s the neverending issue of some government official/son/husband messing around with customs, etc…
    Noynoy shouldn’t be doing all this alone…as I said “we.”
    He doesn’t have to make big accomplishments in his term, just do his job of putting the house in order and then give way to the next administration…of course on a personal note, if he gets to be president, I wish he’ll marry that hot gf of his, no offense to Manolo, I am not ready for a gay president.
    …like everyone else, I’m ending with I hope…:)

  21. ramrod

    CNN and the Wall Street Journal aren’t that optimistic either
    ——————————–

    Hmmmm. I wonder if they were optimistic about the “shock and awe” thing finding WMD some time ago?

  22. ramrod

    Apparently, CNN is not as reliable as we think…

    http://www.honestreporting.com/articles/critiques/CNNs_Iraqi_Cover-Up.asp

  23. ramrod

    Let’s just wait and see. I can wait. As a matter of fact, I’m more charitable than others. I’m much more willing to give Noynoy supporters the benefit of the doubt. I can patiently wait until the mid-term, while others are giving it a year, or less.
    ——————————

    Thats very generous of you Carl, I’ll wait for the same amount of time too…if you’re right (heaven forbid), I will treat you to a nice lunch at any place of your choice…:)

  24. leah

    a weak president could be a good thing.

  25. thecusponline

    If Mar loses to Binay, the man to beat in 2016 will be Binay, not Chiz. Binay represents the post-EDSA I constituency that ideologically opposes tyrrany at the national level, but at the local level makes use of “undemocratic” means to tip the playing field in their favor, so as to stay in power.

    There were many who following People Power in 1986 sought to instill the same ethos at the local level. Ben Kekvliet’s book From Marcos to Aquino documents how this project failed for the most part. Binay is one of the few who was able to transition from street parliamentarian to local boss with relative ease due to his local grass roots organisation skills which have served him well in this race.

    I think that if Binay wins he will simply translate the same governance style he has used at the local level at the national level while maintaining high minded rhetorics. It basically represents the kind of politics that has proven effective in Southeast Asia where tolerance for corruption is high for as long as economic and social benefits are dispensed with effectively.

  26. SoP

    Depends for the most part on Noynoy’s track record to 2016. If he sucks then that will rub off on Binay, ala Noli de Castro.

    Being that Binay is not Noynoy’s running mate, will he give him an important portfolio to shine? Or will he relegate him to nonsense job like DSWD or something?

    I think Noynoy will stay loyal and give Mar a more prominent role in cabinet, more important than Binay (who may not be given a spot at all but will stay a mere VP). In that case, Binay can say goodbye to his 2016 aspirations, unless Noynoy sucks and he becomes a voice of opposition leading up to 2016.

  27. SoP

    I agree with Carl on Noynoy (and know that I disagree with this loyalista very often). I don’t see anything in him that shows courage to stand up to the corrupt system.

    The system needs a slap in the face like a backhanded tax increase on the rich on one hand and a bitch slap of a aggressive collection on the other. If Noynoy makes noises with these, the Makati business club will be all over his ass. That’s just step one.

    He will break and not be able to put the pressure on the tax evaders. Sure we can give him the benefit of the doubt and what-not, but by then, the country would be such a basket case that he’ll be masking these by focusing on non-important issues like Muslim and communist insurgency and crime.

  28. ramrod

    Noynoy doesn’t have to do all these by himself, he can just delegate and its management by objectives thereafter, of course it helps if the full force of the law is behind the hatchet, este task force, or whatever they will call it…just bring in Panfilo Lacson, I’m sure he’ll be more than willing to go after these guys…order of battle. FG, Villar, Gloria, Mikee, the Marcoses, etc, etc….

    “The system needs a slap in the face like a backhanded tax increase on the rich on one hand and a bitch slap of a aggressive collection on the other.” – now thats a good incentive for encouraging business and investments…no way in hell…it has to be done with finesse.

  29. ramrod

    Come to think of it, after a while each president sucks in here…maybe its the other way around, its the people that suck?

  30. SoP

    They suck one to two years after. Give it a term and you see them in a whole light, in the context of the following president of course.

    Gloria sucks. Erap sucks. Marcos sucks. Ramos and Cory were alright.

  31. SoP

    whole new light.

  32. SoP

    “now thats a good incentive for encouraging business and investments…no way in hell…it has to be done with finesse.”

    That’s just the kind of argument that will break Noynoy. People will pressure him to buckle in the name of economic growth. And buckle he will.

    He doesn’t have the courage to think long term. Our entrepreneurs aren’t going anywhere. They will suck up the tax increases if a leader will push hard enough and strong enough. But Noynoy ain’t that kind of leader.

  33. ramrod

    I don’t believe tax increases alone will be the solution to our problems, perhaps he first needs to look at collection, here he can have the law to swing with, you don’t need to be that strong if you have vested powers, remember that S.O.B supervisor who doesn’t have the guts to personally correct/confront his people but churns out memo after memo until you get fired?
    He could also look at how the budget (in trillions) is being allocated and make everybody account for it, again, he can use the powers vested in him by the republic of Pinas.
    Being single, he doesn’t too much baggage, he doesn’t stand to lose much, so if he’s as cool and calculating in the office like in the firing range (he’s a gun lover too), he’ll make it.
    Of course what I’m not so comfortable about is the usual “in fighting” within his team which is what will test his mettle…

  34. SoP

    Governments all over the world are racking up deficits. Believe me, the next decade will be an era of high taxes. There’s no excuse for the Philippine not to raise taxes this time. There’s no where for corporations to run that will have low taxes.

    We should have raised our taxes decades ago. Our personal income taxes are one of the lowest in the world.

  35. ramrod

    He must come up with his “dream team” of some sorts to help him manage the country, and he has to have someone who can watch his six. He just has to decide and act in accordance with the law and survive half of his term…he’s more of a transition president (as a relief from Gloria) before we finally get the time to choose the “one.” Its just one term, it’ll slip by too fast we won’t even notice it – if he’s that good, it will be boring, zero incident, just maintenance work, fixing the institutions until the country can run on auto pilot…the private sector will take care of the rest…

  36. ramrod

    Re low personal income taxes, actually we won’t mind as long as we see some improvement and we’re assured that they are used wisely and not stolen by some jokers who’s names we see in the bottles of VIP rooms. It would be better if us ordinary folks can have the prettiest GRO without fear of getting beat up by some government official’s body guard…

  37. SoP

    ramrod on Sun, 9th May 2010 4:30 pm

    I don’t believe tax increases alone will be the solution to our problems, perhaps he first needs to look at collection…

    I never said they were. But raising taxes requires legislative change, as opposed to raising collections which can be done by mere directives and MOAs.

    Legislative change takes time and pressure will be applied from different stakeholders from the media to businesses to individual tax payers. It takes a lot of guts to confront this wave of opposition. Nobody wants taxes. Legislators, who most often go by opinion polls, will oppose this naturally.

    Can Noynoy so no, fuck you to all these parties? He’s not the kind of guy me thinks. Maybe Villar will, but he ain’t gonna be president.

  38. SoP

    And do you honestly think our government can manage our deficit, social programs, infrastructure needs, rebellions and insurgencies, and debt repayments without raising taxes? C’mon now. Taxes have to be raised. Will Noynoy have the guts? You tell me.

  39. ramrod

    Thats where the new finance guy comes in. Nobody really knows what will happen after the elections, we can’t predict how Noynoy will perform accurately, otherwise we could all be billionaires already. Lets just wait and see…

  40. thecusponline

    The remarkable political comeback of both Erap and Binay should signal to whoever wins (at this point, I would assume it to be Noynoy) the kind of high wire act he will have to walk.

    One strong point made by Kerkvliet regarding the first Aquino presidency was the disconnect between national and local politics. The failure to transition into new politics meant that whatever reforms were initiated were very limited in scope and non-transformative in nature.

    Will Aquino II produce more of the same or something new? This is a big open question. As the Economist pointed out, all the candidates now are trying to present themselves as the un-Arroyo candidate (even Gibo to a certain extent has distanced himself from her), but they really haven’t spelled out how they would govern differently from her (aside of course from the promise to do so honestly and without corruption).

  41. Carl Cid Inting

    @thecusponline’s analysis on Binay is, to my mind, very incisive. Binay can come across as the “kanto boy” who is equally at home with gutter language, as he is with “high minded rhetorics” and technocratic lingo. His success may also depend on how Noynoy does, although he can distance himself from the administration and play the role of maverick or resident critic, especially when the administration slips up. It will be very easy for Binay to cultivate himself with the masses, especially as Vice President, because he looks like them, and can act and speak like them when he wants to. For all intents and purposes, the masses can easily identify themselves with him.

    I also agree with cusp regarding the high wire act and the challenge to produce something new and meaningful.

    The task of getting the country into shape may seem daunting. But it isn’t impossible. Indonesia faced more ferocious challenges a few years ago yet, under a good administration, its fortunes have improved tremendously. Indonesia is far from being out of the woods, but it sure looks much better these days than during the forlorn days after Suharto and the great Tsunami of 2004. Can Aquino be our Yodyohono? I hope so. That’s why I’m willing to give him 3 years to see what stuff he’s made of.

    On the other hand, Thailand looked so much better-off than the Philippines just a few years ago. It looked like it would take off and leave us far in the dust. Now, it’s racked by strife and economic uncertainty. Indonesia and Thailand serve as examples of how a good and bad administrations can turn the wheels of fortune in a short time.

    We can capitalize on the tough times and turmoil presently besetting ASEAN neighbors like Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam in order to bring in more investments. But there have to be changes made to the broader economy, to which vested interests may object to. And, God knows, Noynoy carries a heavy baggage of vested interests, beginning with his own family and oligarchs like the Lopezes and the Ayalas.

    But I still hope that Noynoy, unlike his mother, will not be a captured instrument of the oligarchy. I hope that, like Franklin D. Roosevelt (who was called a “traitor to his class”), he can rise above his social and family loyalties. I hope, as well, that he will not be a puppet of NGO types and leftists, who, in their paranoia, oppose the entry of foreign investments. There will be an epic struggle to control the mind and the soul of Noynoy. And it will be coming from different factions in his own coalition, from his family and from his political and financial benefactors. It will not be an easy task to keep his perspective.

    That is why, you see, I am actually very kind and generous to Noynoy when I give him 3 years to show what stuff he’s made of. Others, especially his supporters, will test Noynoy’s mettle from day one. Just as Mar Roxas has, at this early stage, experienced the bitterness of being undermined by those within his own coalition, Noynoy, if he honestly wants to make a difference, should heed the warning: “Beware who your friends are”! :-)

  42. SoP

    ramrod on Sun, 9th May 2010 6:07 pm

    Thats where the new finance guy comes in.

    Hey now, you don’t become president just so your underlings can create the policy. The president creates the policy agenda and the legislature drive it home by lawmaking. Then the underlings implement it.

    To say that it’s up to the finance guy to decide tax policy is wrong politics ramrod. We should’t vote presidents on such thinking.

  43. ramrod

    SOP,
    Noynoy’s administration will have to work on a designed agenda as there are so many items on the table already, they will probably decide first things first, perhaps the tax policy will be one of them and the implementations thereof.
    As I said, higher taxes may not be the only solution, Europe has high taxes but its still reeling from economic tsunamis, just two months ago there was a transport strike in Finland that paralized the whole country’s export business for two weeks, after that was Sweden’s turn, in the backdrop is the crisis involving the PIGS. It only goes to show that its not just about how much money the state can squeeze from the people but also fiscal management, not to mention productivity, sustainability and profitability of the private enterprise.
    There are so many factors to consider, thats why I said it’ll take some new finance guy to do it, he/his team makes a study, proposes to his boss the options/scenarios, his boss studies them, makes his own analysis, checks for viability, if yes, then delegates implementation, if not, then he goes back to the drawing board…
    It all depends on their overall agenda. I believe that even our most qualified presidents weren’t that successful with this issue ie Gloria, etc. For as long as there is transparency, and trust, most people will toe the line, voluntarily as part of a team…the leader doesn’t have to strong arm them…

  44. SoP

    “Europe has high taxes but its still reeling from economic tsunamis”

    I hope you and all other clueless pundits here and there stop using the word Philippines and Europe or any OECD country in the same sentence.

    Their so called economic problems aren’t in the level as ours. We have tens of thousands of street children hungry, clotheless, sniffing glue, dirty, roaming the streets, with some being picked randomly by pedophiles for sexual exploitation. I doubt you’d find one street child in an OECD country.

    So please, when OECD countries talk of their so called economic problems, it’s in the context of an already in-built infrastructure (physical, social, political and economic) and social welfare (which applies to most of the population).

    When the Philippines or China or any developing country speaks of 6-10% annual growth, we still have the problem of providing a humane living to more than half a population that subsists on $1 a day.

    You can compare economic performance, but do like for like. That is, poor country to poor country.

  45. SoP

    Regarding Noynoy, he already said that his priority in the first hundred days is to snag a big fish smuggler or graft and corrupter.

    What would that do for the tens of thousands of corrupt politicians out there?

    This will end in failure because he has no agenda. There has to be a design. If they design it as they go, well good luck to all of us, again.

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