Can candidates beat the odds?

The President goes into campaign crunch time with a bum stomach.

Latest survey results on the party-list are out. The National Democrats are doing badly in the surveys but not so bad as to risk losing their seats in the House:

In the May 2-4 poll of the Philippine Daily Inquirer and the Social Weather Stations (SWS), Bayan Muna got 8.4 percent of the votes cast for partylist groups, down from 10.4 percent in the April 14-17 survey, and 27.6 percent in the March 15-18 survey.

In addition, it seems Mong Palatino is poised to become the first blogger to end up serving in the House of Representatives:

13. Kabataan (2.1 percent)

Mong, incidentally, pens this interesting description of the new political culture of our country:

We have a new generation of voters exposed to digital relationships and the OFW phenomenon. If friendship is possible between two people who haven’t met (in the traditional sense, they haven’t met. But in the modern sense, they have already met through viewing of their friendster profiles, live chatting, texting and emailing), a politician can risk campaigning through virtual means. If parenting is done remotely by OFW parents, young voters will not find it odd if politicians will campaign through television alone. The new generation of voters expect politicians to be less intrusive to their lives. Voters want the freedom to turn off the TV or radio if they dislike the candidate or politician; in the same way they can switch channels if they find TV programs too boring. They won’t have the same freedom if politicians or candidates are knocking on their doors.

In short, a politician must be both visible and invinsible to get more votes. How odd, yet so true. Welcome to the 21st century!

Speaking of surveys. He’s a sure guide to everything survey-related, and Philippine Commentary is taking pains to point out:

1. If there’s any certainty about the results, it will only apply to the first six or so places in the surveys; anything below that involves a race that’s too close to call.

2. Because things remain dynamic, don’t count out of the race those who come in past no. 12 in the surveys:

It is not enough to say that anyone below 3% of the current No. 12 candidate has no chance of breaking into it. Consider the performances in the last period of Juan Miguel Zubiri and Sonia Roco. I note with some ill-disguised gladness that in the May 1-2 survey, it looks like Ed Angara and Joker Arroyo are fighting it out for the last two seats, and both could in fact be displaced by hard-charging candidates from below. Even Antonio Trillanes is within striking distance, in my opinion and cannot be counted out, along with Migs Zubiri and Sonia Roco.

As The Journal of the Jester-in-Exile (in a very interesting analysis of the senate race, I might add) also takes pains to point out: the senate race can be divided into several groups, based on their rankings in the surveys. He places Angara, Joker, and Sotto in a dead heat for the finish, but says Pimentel, Defensor, and Trillanes are still “within striking distance,” and that a political upset can still carry Pichay, Montano or Roco to victory.

He brings to mind the third point to bear in mind today: the large number of undecided voters -and voters who may decide to change their minds (and votes):

The SWS has counted a stray/ undecided vote percentage of 13%, and with the margin of error of +/- 3%, will range from 10% to 16%. If the opposition is able to marshal this population, a Senate composition may range between 8-4-2 to 9-3-1, with Pimentel, Roco, and Trillanes kicking out Angara, Arroyo, and Sotto out of the running, with Zubiri duking it out with Honasan. Conversely, if Team Daya gets all of these numbers, the Senate may between 6-5-1 to 7-4-1, forcing out Cayetano and Honasan, and making the final seat a fight between Aquino and Pichay.

These two entries reminds us that on election day, priority one is getting people to show up and cast their votes. The monkeying around that follows means all the more that believers in certain candidates should try to contribute to a tidal wave of votes that would swamp the cheating. Random Thoughts, for example, is all set to cast that vote in favor of Joker. Patsada Karajaw takes heart from the Trillanes ratings, and this does suggest a big push on his behalf not only from his supporters (now liberated from the media blackout that handicapped him for much of the campaign), but from the opposition -enough of an effort to make the Palace nervous.

Contrasting views on the “command” or “machinery” vote come from Dan Mariano and Amando Doronila.

Mariano says unopposed administration bets in local races, can then attend to national candidates’ needs:

What do Belmonte, Treñas and Guico have in common?

They are all proadminis­tration mayors. Moreover, they are among the 243 municipal and 24 city chief executives all over the country-with a total of 5.6 million voters in their constituencies-who are either running unopposed or facing token rivals.

Given their enviable situation, these mayors are able to act as fulltime campaigners for Team Unity’s senatorial ticket.

This corps of influential campaigners is what sets Team Unity apart from GO. These are the local leaders who can deliver the unfortunately named “command votes” for the administration candidates.

This is the administration’s grassroots work, which can go and get out the vote-literally-on Election Day itself, which no survey can match.

Doronila, on the other hand, says what people tend to do, is accept conventional wisdom as gospel truth, without asking if old assumptions are holding true (or were ever true at all). He says observers who assume the administration to steamroll to victory in the House are wrongly discounting the chance some races will result in electoral upsets:

Statistics are touted to support the administration’s expectations of a sweep. For example, the administration’s seven-party coalition led by Lakas-CMD has in place 77 out of the 81 provincial governors, 194 out of 228 congressmen, 115 of 120 city mayors, and over 1,200 of 1,500 mayors. That profiles the machine. As for delivery of the command votes, estimated to number two million, the Genuine Opposition has no candidates in more than 70 percent of the electorates nationwide. Even opposition strategists admit that the opposition has contested only 144 of the more than 230 congressional seats, and that only one-third of the 144 (40) are considered as “sure winners.”

These estimates assume the best results for the administration. They further assume that the voters are robots, which is not the case. The outrage factor has apparently been taken out of the equation. Given the capacity of the administration to offend public opinion and to provoke outrage over its abuse of power, which tends to increase as Election Day approaches, there is a certain amount of volatility in public sentiment creating a backlash against these excesses. (The prospects of gagging Justice Secretary Raul Gonzalez, Interior Secretary Ronaldo Puno, Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita and Ombudsman Merceditas Gutierrrez to limit their capacity to lose votes for administration candidates are dim.) The theory therefore of a 10-20 percent machine-delivered command vote rests at best on pure hypothesis, arrogance or overconfidence. In plain words, it is foolish to discount a number of upsets on the congressional level.

A very good point, and one which could change the dynamics nationally, too.

So tying it all together, here are the things to ponder as the campaign comes to a close:

1. There’s a large number of undecided voters out there.
2. The senatorial election may be more fluid than expected. And the borderline administration candidates may not get the big boost they need, but instead, even lower-ranking but more loyal administration candidates might get support; and there are an equal number of opposition candidates that could ride the crest of a last-minute wave of public support.
3. The senatorial races can be boosted by cohesive local support, but there may be nasty surprises for the administration in some local races.

Now much of the debate involves machinery, and variations thereof. Most voters seem to think some sort of cheating will take place. The question is, what kind delivers more electoral bang for the buck? Over the past decade, it’s proven to be dagdag-bawas is king. In Inquirer Current, I ask: what if the pros have come to the conclusion that old-fashioned muscle on the ground, matters more than wholesale fraud?

Update: it seems Newsbreak might have just answered the question:

A strategist and two operators who claim to be involved in the administration’s “special operations” for the senatorial elections separately told Newsbreak that this year’s strategy adopts the “successful” aspects of the pre-election cheating that they said they conducted for President Arroyo in the 2004 elections, and avoids the parts that had been subsequently discovered.

Due to the sensitive nature of their disclosure, these sources refused to be identified. But they were among the sources we previously interviewed for our series of stories on election cheating in the 2004 presidential polls.

Specifically, they disclosed, what will not be repeated from the 2004 elections are:

* The use of pre-accomplished election returns (ERs) that were switched with genuine ones before the municipal canvassing began.
* The use of extra certificates of canvass (COCS) that tampered with actual provincial tallies.

The ones that will be repeated from the 2004 strategy, according to them, are:

* Wide-scale operations only in “friendly” cities and provinces.
* An unusually high voter turnout in these areas.
* The buying out, if necessary, of the opposition’s poll watchers.

On a civic note, [email protected] explains why he will vote. For the undecided, there are summaries of the candidates’ positions in issues such as Charter Change, the dynasty question, the population issue, and RP-US relations.

John Nery in our joint blog, who disagreed previously with my assertion the middle class will be boycotting this one, rethinks his position (pointing to Mike Tan’s upcoming column, among other anecdotal evidence). Personally, I think this is the sad result of the logical trap the middle class has placed itself in, since 2005. But whether they come out to vote for the President’s ticket, or against, I hope I’m proven wrong. Because it won’t do the middle any good to be shown having opted out of an election.

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  1. Voters must vote for their choices even when they do not appear to have very good chances of winning. If we vote only the winnables we shall never give the deserving the chance to serve us. I will surely vote for Sonny Trillanes because I believe in his principles.

    • inodoro ni emilie on May 11, 2007 at 3:27 pm

    hmm, why would the middle class boycott this one? let me speculate. or is there a need?

    (a) the masa elects;
    (b) the middle class and the elite connive, evict the elected leader/s, and decide who shall sit in power. “pare-pareho lang ‘yan!”
    (c) austero and edsa2 partywishers rally, “let’s move on.”

    • manuelbuencamino on May 11, 2007 at 3:43 pm

    On Palatino’s cyber/virtual campaign –

    I’ve talked to common folk who noticed that candidates do not knock on their doors anymore. I guess this is the first election where the shift to the mass media is noticeable.

    Mass media however does not offer the “close look” that voters want. And that’s good for candidates who cannot stand up to scrutiny but bad for voters.

    The internet will bridge that gap but it will take a few more years before we have as many wired PCs in homes as we do TVs and radios.

    Until that time, geography and population distribution will still determine what is the best system to reach voters. Also, It all depends on the position one is running for.

    I don’t think you can substitute one for the other. A good campaigner will use one to complement the other.

  2. Still, even there are three more days before the election and even there are a lot of undecided voters out there, ‘command votes’ should not be followed by these undecided voters. I think, its the responsibilty of these voters to research and know the ones they’re going to vote. TV and radio programs offer forums and debates to know the plans of the senatoriables. News all over of the country about them can also be used as guidelines and criteria to vote.

    • benj on May 11, 2007 at 5:37 pm

    I just understood the whole “command vote” argument when I read the Inquirer from yesterday. Yes, it does make sense. This is not a presidential election and there are many municipalities were the administration is running unopposed. Curiously, this only asserts the administration’ confidence on their machinery. If they really wanted to drive a dagger, they should have outright said that they have way better candidates [which they don’t!].

    Angara said that a 9-2-1 is very probably for the vote-rich island of Mindanao. Let’s see what happens. 🙂

  3. Juju has been disqualified by the COMELEC, Cayetano is now running “unopposed”. Let’s help our volunteers, don’t just cast your votes, stick around for the counting.

    • Mita on May 11, 2007 at 9:54 pm

    Trillanes. Mmmm. His method for change was to stage a coup in a premiere condotel in the very heart of Makati. He failed in that. What can we expect of the guy from hereon?

    Mmmmm…gets ko na may principles siguro sya. But I really cannot fathom the depth of his depravity by believing that violence will get the country moving forward. I simply reject that.

  4. the admin thought running the GAGO ads on network tv is a good thing?

    http://www.politicaljunkie.blogspot.com/2007/05/administration-resort-to-name-calling.html

    • Mita on May 11, 2007 at 10:03 pm

    Cayetano? Seriously. What is his record in Congress? You can check for yourself. Renaming schools ginawa nya! Never mind that he was too chicken shit to stand up to the charges he made against Mike Arroyo. Pointing at boxes to present evidence? Waiver this and that? Ah hello?

    Buti pa si much-disliked Chavit may track record to speak of!

    • benj on May 11, 2007 at 10:16 pm

    Hi Mita, when my dad and I talked about politics he always reminded me that Opposition members are not expected to pass their own laws in Congress because they mainly serve as fiscalizers. Of course, I find that hard to stomach but it is one explanation why Cayetano’s track record is PATHETIC. hehe

    • supremo on May 12, 2007 at 12:17 am

    The 2007 election will mark a generational shift in national politics. The martial law babies are here! We may see a young Philippine President or Vice President in 2010.

    • Bencard on May 12, 2007 at 1:46 am

    trillianes and a.p. cayetano are just two of the shameful oddities of this aberration of an election. One is a bold-faced liar whose only claim to fame is a talent for crap-slinging. the other, a faint-hearted traitor masquerading as a hero and playing the role to the hilt. Voting for them tells a lot about the kind of people who would do it – clueless and manhid.

    is it true that trillianes is being supported by the left? only in the philippines, only in the philippines.

    • mlq3 on May 12, 2007 at 1:47 am
      Author

    no official statement from the left re: trillanes. but they’re officially supporting joker and recto, puzzling indeed.

    • UPn student on May 12, 2007 at 2:49 am

    A couple of my salesmen-friends says no chance for Trillanes getting elected (based on what they hear from colleagues in Luzon and Visayas cities). But if he does get elected, he’ll be a neophyte, so he’ll be a bit ignored. And he’ll probably miss a lot of roll calls because of Trillanes preference to hole up in a condotel while he conspires with who-knows-who on what.
    And neophyte-Trillanes won’t give many speeches, definitely not a speech on the importance of respect for law and the procedures and guidelines written in the Constitution. And should Trillanes give a speech, the
    Senate will probably be empty especially if Trillanes says that he will DETONATE a bomba speech on GMA’s legitimacy.
    The Congress can use humor, can’t it?

  5. Cayetano? Seriously. What is his record in Congress?

    Mita. pareho lang sila ni Escudero. All noise, no accomplishment. Paganakakita ng camera, nakapose kaagad.

    hahaha

    • supremo on May 12, 2007 at 4:41 am

    GMA is also good at posing before the camera. Remember when GMA’s past time was morbidly posing beside dead bodies?

    • vic on May 12, 2007 at 9:44 am

    If everyone could remember well, GMA is now the President, because she too had promised the moon and the seas, (flowing with honey) and now, some are easily convinced by the promises of the principled candidates, like the mutineers, Trillianes like Honasan before him, is just to me the reflection of how defective the electoral process is. How on earth a person charged with a very serious offense can launch his candidacy for a seat in the senate? Much less the opportunity to get voted in?

    In a real world, a person alleged or suspected or any wrongdoing will even resign or fired from the job, a person charged would never have any dignity left to face the voters, unless declared innocent (as compared to just not guilty, which could only meant the lack of evidence)by the court. But then look at the prize of winning a seat in the senate, why spoil the opportunity?

  6. Obviously, a lot of people do not have information about the prelude to the Oakwood event. If only the President seriously considered what the young soldiers revealed to her, we would have seen a real stateman in her. But, the events turned out to be the means to show how she could make use of anything and anyone to protect herself. The way I look at it leadership in this country has become so complicated that the leader and people around him/her need to deaf and blind to protect their assess and further their ambitions. We, poor people, can just do so much, and accept that the change we all wish for shall not happen in our lifetime, but we can certainly sow the seeds which might come to fruition in the not so distant future. If we don’t start sowing the seeds now, that future may not come.

    • UPn student on May 12, 2007 at 11:54 am

    Maria: What did the young soldiers tell the president? Is it possible that what the young soldiers said were not in agreement with GMA’s other sources of information?
    I mean, if a young captain suggested that “the Philippines should abrogate the VFA treaty” while 8 of the generals and colonels advising GMA says the VFA treaty is fine, you’d think that GMA will heed the advice of her advisers, won’t you?

    • UPn student on May 12, 2007 at 12:09 pm

    To vic: I disagree when you said “…In a real world, a person alleged or suspected or any wrongdoing will even resign or fired from the job a person charged would never have any dignity left to face the voters, unless declared innocent (as compared to just not guilty, which could only meant the lack of evidence)by the court.”
    To follow what you say is to give immense power to the incumbent. I suspect it is quite easy for GMA to charge Panfilio Lacson or Jamby Madrigal with tax evasion, and GMA just might do that if Filipinos begin to immediately ask the resignation of persons who have “been shamed” because they have been charged with some “stuff”.

    • freewheel on May 12, 2007 at 12:18 pm

    vic,

    in only one sense, you are correct in drawing Gringo as an analogy for Trillanes candidacy: both do wear fatigues, yes, and both were accused of mutiny but the similarities ends just after they started.

    consider the following: Gringo– a desk officer throughout his entire soldiering career, Trillanes, on the other hand, is a hands-on soldier in the field. to those in the know, there is a huge whale body of distinction between the two.

    the former, a member of Enrile’s retinue of colonels, from day one to this day; a.) coveted the power for his band, and in every interview made available always felt sorry for having ‘presented’ Cory the presidency, and, b.) never credited the people for saving his, and to that of his mentor asses from Marcos forces.

    Trillanes based on interviews, bares a profound knowledge, on the importance of people’s participation in changing a system. went on to acknowledge that Oakwood as a failure, is fundamentally due to lack of people support and wanting of effective communication between them and their intended recipients—the citizenry.

    The latter and his group, the Magdalo, has never been securely identified with any politician, inspite of Malacanan’s stressed efforts; nor with any political party. Trillanes, have always taken pains more than the necessary in stressing that the current socio-political crises is borne mainly due, NOT because of clash in ideologies, but of blatantly corrupt, of inexplicable inefficiency and deliberate misgovernance.

    his way of delivering a message is far from perfect, and might be flawed even, that i must admit, but even his bitterest critics must admit that the guy is his own man, instead of somebody’s else lame stooge; a quality that is painfully absent in most of our politicians–trapo or otherwise.

    am giving him the benefit of doubt and my vote comes May 14, on Monday.

  7. I wonder if the T middle name stands for Trillanes. hehehe

    Even when the survey was 9-3, I already predicted that it would be 6-6.

    It does not change except for the first number six which should be 5 GO and One Independent.

    As early as two days before election, the opposition is already floating the idea of cheating from the administration camp.

    True, there will be cheating from both sides.

  8. The latter and his group, the Magdalo, has never been securely identified with any politician, inspite of Malacanan’s stressed efforts; nor with any political party.

    Are you sober?

  9. went on to acknowledge that Oakwood as a failure, is fundamentally due to lack of people support and wanting of effective communication between them and their intended recipients—the citizenry.

    May be because the people were not convinced of their teledrama.

    • freewheel on May 12, 2007 at 4:05 pm

    why, people do not have to meeooww to prove that they are sober, no?

    • territorialregimen on May 12, 2007 at 6:04 pm

    The beauty of the democracy framed in this country is that anybody, meeting minimum qualifications, can be elected to public office.

    For senators and congressmen, all we require are citizenship, age and residency. No degree of educational attainment is required, not even in the office of the President, as long as the candidate is able to read and write. Not even possession of good moral character is necessary. Not even conviction for a felony is a disqualification, much less, being charged in court. (Except that convicted felon may be disqualified from holding public office, elective or appointive, WHILE serving sentence.)

    This equates to POWER on the part of the electorate. The power to be the be the TRUE and FINAL judge of the ability, morality, character, and sincerity of the candidate. This is the beauty of our democracy. If only we can make it to work!

    The POWER is in our hand. That we are a failure, we only have OURSELVES to blame.

    • baycas on May 12, 2007 at 7:14 pm

    Certainly, all will not be able to make it to the magic 12 but I’ll still go for G.O. plus one from Kapatiran.

    To all oppositionists:

    STRAIGHT G.O. will BOOST their chances and will DISPLACE bets from the dark side. Because of the unpopularity of the Kapatiran bets, voting the three of them will not pull down the lagging candidates from t.u.t.a. but instead prop them (the t.u.t.a. tail-enders) up.

    Please remember those who are in the top 25 positions (Pulse and SWS stats):

    a. 11 t.u.t.a.s (minus Kiram) + 1 Indie (who had a meeting with gloria) = 12 dark forces
    b. 11 G.O. + 1 Indie (Mr. Noted who asked gloria to resign) = 12 bright forces
    c. The other Indie (the actor), judging from his skin color, will probably lean to the dark side.

    So, 11 G.O. + 1 Indie + 3 Kapatirans who are not in the top 25 (a diluted 15 bright forces) will divide the votes and will NOT displace the dark forces (13, all of whom are in the top 25).

    Mr. Noted no longer needs my vote (as some in the pro-admin and the middle forces, Sharonians included, will vote for him) and so I will give the last vote to Dr. Martin Bautista. Besides, this will enhance Doc Martin’s mettle to run in the next race if May 14 will not be a humbling day for him.

    Please Vote Straight G.O., WALANG LAGLAGAN!!!

    —–
    To the Genuine Opposition:

    Ace our poll victory!!! (bow)

    ACE R POLL ViCTri (Bau) [all surnames]

    Aquino Noynoy, Cayetano Alan, Escudero
    Roco
    Pimentel, Osmeña, Lacson, Legarda
    Villar, Coseteng, Trillanes
    Bautista

    • vic on May 12, 2007 at 8:53 pm

    UPn,
    I was talking about the real world. In real world, the incumbent president can not charged anyone of a crime or wrongdoing, except the police with sufficient evidence for conviction. And maliciously charging anyone of any crime is a crime in itself. Anyone of course, especially the Media can expose any one’s alleged wrongdoings, but that again need some solid evidence. But then, again we are not in a real world, so anything goes.

    One good item that is the biggest news in our world here. After the series of articles by the daily Toronto Star, exposing the Provincial Govt. dole outs to NGOs closely related to the Party from the ministry’s Slush Funds, for some organizations without even applying for the funds, the Premier, just called for Public Inquiry and insisted he’s not going to fire his minister, but it is either he resign (the minister) or get fired later after the inquiry. And we are clamoring for his resignation and he is not even charge of anything yet. But one thing for sure, our Dailies here are quite good with their investigative reporting.

    freewheel,
    giving any candidate the benefit of the doubt is all we can hope for and hope for the best. if only we have the candidates the quality of former senators Salonga, Diokno and a very few in the past, then maybe then.

    • benj on May 12, 2007 at 8:59 pm

    Wow. Dark and Bright Forces? What is this? Starwars?! Haha.

    I think people are romanticizing the Kapatiran too much. They are a fundamentalist and messianic organization who are feeding off the desperation and idealism of people.

    • Mita on May 12, 2007 at 9:38 pm

    maria soledad, sowing the seeds of terror? if we took the example of trillanes and gringo, that is what you’re essentially saying. we’ll end up a country of war freaks.

    a coup is a coup…there is no escaping the fact that trillanes and gringo got to that point where their only solution to a problem was to take up arms. sounds familiar? yes, the NPA.

    as i said, i reject violence as a solution to any problem. I say that as a woman and as a Filipino.

    • UPn student on May 12, 2007 at 10:20 pm

    Does Trillanes support teaching sex education in schools and making condoms more available (to prevent HIV/AIDS spread)? Does he want to send away the American anti-Abu-Sayyaf military advisers? Does he propose to build more schools by raising taxes?
    ..You know Trillanes will say he supports human rights and freedom of expression, or will he, especially against NPA sympathizers? Has he said if he supports Jamby-Madrigal pro-CPP/NPA?
    ..You know Trillanes is “for the poor and the oppressed”, or is he? Has he said yet if he supports to immediately raise the minimum wage?
    .. He says he will vote to impeach GMA… or will he? Trillanes, after all, is a conspirator who has acted out his thoughts — with Armalites and C4 — without discussing his thoughts with the citizenry of the Philippines. So now Trillanes says he has learned his lesson… ” on the importance of people’s participation in changing a system. … that Oakwood as a failure, is fundamentally due to lack of people support and wanting of effective communication between them and their intended recipients—the citizenry.”
    Trillanes has learned his lesson… or has he?
    ..
    Didn’t Gringo say those words, too?

    Isn’t elections wonderful? People vote their opinions.
    Time to vote… time to vote… it is time to vote!!!

    • manuelbuencamino on May 12, 2007 at 10:31 pm

    Sige yun ayaw kay cayetano at escudero isulat na lang ninyo sa inyung balota ang pangalan ni chavit at ni sotto.

    on second thought, just vote straight TUTA para makasiguro kayo na may bantay si Gloria at si Mike, para naman mahimbing ang tulog ninyong lahat. Oops, pwera lang si Cat. Sino naman ang pusa na makakarlog ng mahimbing kung napapaligiran ng mga aso.

  10. Cayetano? Seriously. What is his record in Congress?

    Mita. pareho lang sila ni Escudero. All noise, no accomplishment. Paganakakita ng camera, nakapose kaagad.

    hindi ba ganyan rin si joker. isang grandstander? ano ba ang record niya sa congress?

    joker arroyo’s friend, max soliven: (7/31/2001)

    http://www.philstar.com/philstar/show_content.asp?article=45556

    I don’t want to say, on the other hand, that Joker is lazy. I’m just wondering why, in his three terms (nine years) as congressman from Makati, Joker did not file or get passed into law a single resolution or bill. Why, he didn’t even, his contemporaries say, have a House staff of his own. So, some ask, where did the appropriations for a House staff go? To charity, no doubt.
    ….

    So, Joker: Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth. A freshman Senator getting the Blue Ribbon is a grandstander’s dream! And that’s always been your forte. Or is Senator Arroyo (no relation) merely making pakipot? I don’t think it’s comely for his fellow solons to have to come to their knees and beg.

    =======

    background story:

    http://www.pinoyexchange.com/forums/archive/index.php/t-53420.html

  11. to charity, no doubt!

    • Bencard on May 12, 2007 at 11:07 pm

    just saw the ABS-CBN election forum. not only that trillianes is a morose jailbird, he could not articulate his plan, if elected, beyond rejecting, kuno, his pork barrel allocation in favor of a so-called “national infrastucture” – whatever he meant by that. I really think Montano did a better job with his plan to help change the thrust of education – i.e., build a stronger citizenry, starting from pre-school, through development of right character and sense of values.

    As a nation, we really need to reinvent ourselves by rejecting the culture of dependence and transferred responsibility in favor of self-reliance and help-yourself attitude. As there would be no tyrants if there were no slaves, so there would be no corrupted if there were no corruptors; no bribe receivers if there were no bribe givers; no vote buyers if there were no vote sellers. This is our nation, and we are all in this together. Before we complain, let’s look ouselves in the mirror. More often than not, we’ll see that we are a part of the problem, not the solution.

    We have to remember, an infection in the minutest part of our body affects the whole.

    • Mita on May 13, 2007 at 12:14 am

    bencard, amen to that. Raise the ROOF!

    also want to add:

    no matter who you choose to vote. think about this….

    why vote someone because he is for or against a person or persons? that someone probably took the opposite opposition yesterday, what will he then do tomorrow? it’s politics – the wind currents chart the course.

    what future do you want your country to have? can’t you just vote for your country’s future? it’s the country’s future should be the sole focus of every voter as he enters the polls.

    • Mita on May 13, 2007 at 12:17 am

    oh wow..i must be sleepy. not “opposition” but position.

    and “the country’s future should be …”

    • manuelbuencamino on May 13, 2007 at 12:18 am

    Bencard,

    “As there would be no tyrants if there were no slaves, so there would be no corrupted if there were no corruptors; no bribe receivers if there were no bribe givers; no vote buyers if there were no vote sellers. ”

    Tyrants, corruptors, bribe givers and vote buyers will always be there because that’s their nature. But we can always refuse their offers.

    That;s why I think the burden is on those on the recieving end.

    I used to work in a government office where retail bribery was s.o.p. But despite the culture of impunity in that office there were still some civil servants – some of them earning less than 10 thosand pesos a month – who refused to take bribes to cut corners. There were also many occasions when those employees turned down tips from grateful clients, for lack of a better word, for doing their jobs properly and in a timely fashion. There are many who would consider those tips permissable since they were not given in exchange for anything but those civil servants refused because they were only doing their jobs.

    That’s why, I’ve always believed that the greater sin is to accept bribes. The giver will always be there but one can, and should, always say NO. And low pay is no excuse to those who value their self-respect.

    • baycas on May 13, 2007 at 12:23 am

    Mahirap talaga kung ang unang tanong ay hanggang ngayo’y di pa nasasagot: KAY GLORIA KA BA O HINDI?

    Kung HINDI ka para kay gloria, bumoto ka ng mga kandidatong LABAN kay gloria. Siyempre, ‘yung may laban, ‘ika nga. Ang buong lupon ng G.O. (11) ang mas mainam dahil kasali ang lahat sa kanila sa nauunang dalawampu’t lima (sa mga survey). Huwag nang haluan pa ng maaaring hahaltak pababa sa iilan nilang kasama – gaya ng pagboto sa buong grupo ng Kapatiran.

    Batay sa pagsusuri ng Pulse Asia at SWS mula Pebrero hanggang Mayo, sina Pimentel (#14), Trillanes (#15), at Roco (#17) ay nahuhuli. Kapag ibinoto mo ang tatlong Kapatiran, may aangat na 2 t.u.t.a. sa 2 G.O. na malalaglag.

    Buti sana kung ang lahat ng boboto sa tatlong Kapatiran ay ilalaglag sina Osmeña at Coseteng…okey lang. Pero paano kung sina Pimentel at Alan Cayetano (dahil sa dynasty) ang ilaglag? O kaya naman si Trillanes (dahil nakakulong) at si Roco (dahil sa mga autistic)? O kaya naman ilaglag sina Legarda at Villar (dahil galit sa “Number One”)? May aangat na t.u.t.a. sa malalaglag na G.O.

    Sa mga taga-oposisyon, ISA lamang sa Kapatiran ang maaaring iboto. Sana naman po, huwag nang banlawan ang puro…IBOTO Buong Lupon ng G.O. (11)…at isang napupusuang oposisyon.

    Sa mga maka-gloria, huwag matakot…mayroon at mayroon ding lalabas na t.u.t.a. Sigurado ‘yon. Suko ako doon sa mga karapat-dapat na mga ‘yon. (Huwag lang sana si singson, defensor, pichay, aso, atbp…hehe.)

    • Bencard on May 13, 2007 at 12:30 am

    buencab, mas mabuti na ang aso kaysa gago. ang aso loyal at nagpro-protekta sa amo (taong-bayan). ang gago, inutil at walang gawang makabuluhan kundi para sa kanya, kasama na ang ingay at daldal na hindi matino.

    • Bencard on May 13, 2007 at 12:38 am

    baycas, sigue mangarap ka. hindi naman yan bawal. yon lang, baka may idyot na maniwala sa’yo. patay na naman ang bayan.

    • justice league on May 13, 2007 at 1:25 am

    JM,

    That account of Joker from Max Soliven has already been dicussed here before already.

    The words of MVS just shows that nobody is perfect, not even MVS.

    Makati wouldn’t have been a city without Congressional action. The law for the cityhood and charter of makati(and if I’m not mistaken the splitting of it into 2 districts) was courtesy of a law authored by Joker as Congressman of Makati.

    As government websites are shoddy particularly on past records of Congress as they concentrate on the here and now; Joker may have filed more bills or maybe not. But the above is enough to nullify MVS statements on Joker’s Congressional record.

    MVS made a mistake there so MVS could have been mistaken on a lot of other things he was alluding to. And unless you can show better proof; MVS’ mistakes are now yours.

    • mlq3 on May 13, 2007 at 10:32 am
      Author

    vic: the asnwer is, because elections serve as the court of public opinion. politicians charged with treason for collaborating with the japanese ran for office because the amnesty proclamation wasn’t enough. jose p. laurel’s political rehabilitiation was secured when he was elected to the senate in the 1950s. arturo tolentino, too, after the manila hotel caper and having run with marcos, secured election to the senate as a vindication of himself; in a sense, enrile’s election, too, was in the same tradition as was honasan’s previous election.

    it’s for the same reason that i felt joseph estrada should have run for the senate, so that the public can render its judgment on him once and for all. why i would have welcomed a referendum on the president to settle the legitimacy issue.

    • territorialregimen on May 13, 2007 at 1:39 pm

    mlq3,

    On the contrary, I think Estrada was wise enough not to run for the senate. Maybe he sees it as a futile act.

    In my other comment I asked: May an elected senator under preventive detention be allowed to discharge his mandate in the senate?

    I believe this is a valid issue. There is no precedent to this in our jurisprudence, Salonga, Honasan, and Enrile, I supposed, were not under detention at the time of their election. Or even if they were, the issue was never brought out. Anyway, the case of People vs. Romeo Jalosjos, 2000, gives us a clue as to what, likely, is the Supreme Court stand on this.

    In that case, the highest Court showed its tendency to favor the “stability of the penitentiary system” over the “mandate of the people” as claimed by Jalosjos. This means that they rule against allowing the detained official perform his office. It ratiocinated its ruling as follows:

    “The performance of legitimate and even essential duties by public officers has never been an excuse to free a person validly in prison. xxx

    “… [T]he position of Congressman is not a reasonable classification in criminal law enforcement. The functions and duties of the office are not substantial distinctions which lift him from the class of prisoners interrupted in their freedom and restricted in liberty of movement. Lawful arrest and confinement are germane to the purposes of the law and apply to all those belonging to the same class.

    And, in an the obiter dictum in the same case, it further said:

    “Being a detainee, accused-appellant (Jalosjos) SHOULD NOT EVEN HAVE BEEN ALLOWED by the prison authorities at the National Pentientiary to perform these acts (the discharging of his mandate as congressman).” (Emphasis supplied)

    • lee on May 13, 2007 at 2:11 pm

    yes, manolo, sonia and trillanes can still make it. Remember that Pia Cayetano, wasn’t figuring in the surveys until Abs showed a replay of the Maalaala mo kaya story of Rene Cayetano prior to the elections.

    • realist on May 13, 2007 at 2:17 pm

    Bencard, ano na naman yang pinagdadadada mo diyan! Aso, gago? Ang amo mo maraming aso, di lang gago, ulol pa.

    “…inutil at walang gawang makabuluhan kundi para sa kanya, kasama na ang ingay at daldal na hindi matino.”

    Alam mo talaga MO ninyo!

    • benj on May 13, 2007 at 2:28 pm

    lee: Cayetano only made it to the top during the May surveys – the same goes for Gordon. Both Cayetano and Gordon were at 16-19 as late as March. They were the 2 who displaced Osmeña and Barbers.

    • manuelbuencamino on May 13, 2007 at 2:49 pm

    bencard,

    “mas mabuti na ang aso kaysa gago”

    Just in case you don’t know the difference between animals and men,

    – Ang gago ay tao. Ang aso ay hayop.

    • cvj on May 13, 2007 at 3:25 pm

    Baycas, done! I voted for the 11 Genuine Opposition and Martin Bautista for the Senate and AKBAYAN for Party List. I almost was not able to vote since my absentee ballot was returned to Manila due to a change in address. Thanks to the COMELEC staff for promptly resending it (via DHL) last Wednesday. Thanks also to the Philippine Embassy staff here in Singapore who i can see is working hard this Sunday even if they were officially supposed to be closed.

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  1. […] did not, of course, change my mind about the possibility of a middle-class boycott. Perhaps I did not choose my words carefully […]

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