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Sep 01

On the Economy

On YouTube – Broadcast Yourself. you can view my recent Explainer show where former NEDA Chief Cielo Habito presented his views on the economy and prospects for the remainder of the year.

You can also view the following, below: first, the presentation he used on my show; the more comprehensive presentation on which it was based, which he presented at the Philippine Daily Inquirer. And after that, his presentation last year, and also, one by DLSU economist Dr. Michael Alba, from three years ago.

Read this document on Scribd: The Explainer presentation by Cielito Habito

Read this document on Scribd: Inquirer Briefing by Cielito Habito

Read this document on Scribd: Economic briefing by Cielito Habito

Read this document on Scribd: Economic briefing by Dr. Michael Alba

135 comments

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  1. cvj

    jcc (at at 6:33 am), you admitted your inability to understand so how are you able to determine whether what was said (at 11:48 am) was economic sophistry?

  2. hvrds

    The apt description of Palin was dishing out “red meat”

    The base was hungry for red meat…. A methapor or no hold barred fight to the death.

    So when you see the telecast of Hamas and Hezbollah and their chanting of Death to Amrika and Death to Israel,
    Palin’s speech is a euphemism for Death to lefties and Bleeding hearts. The only narrative left for them is simply attack the left…. Statism

    What is ironic is she pushed through a battle versus the oil giants in Alaska by pushing for a windfall tax. Exactly what Obama wants on a national level which Mccain opposes.

    Forget about issues on this one. They are trying to organize a lynching. They are going coon hunting.

    Been there and seen that during the Nixon years….. This is a replay of the Civil War unsettled in the Red States

  3. filAm Democrat

    hvrds: if Nov 4 you can vote but did not vote, well, then you are hvrds. If you vote on US elections Nov 4-08 and you did not vote for Obama…. and you did not vote for Mccain…. then you 100%-for-sure picked a loser.

  4. hvrds

    Palin’s visceral attacks makes her a good metaphor for being a dominatrix that can dish out pain. School teacher dominatrix.

    If you look at the other two Republican attack dogs of the female persuasion you have Ann Coulter and Michelle Malkin. Coulter using a sexual metaphor is more Tranny looking but Michelle is hot as an Amazon female in animal skin. Kasi may lahing Pinay. Exotic ang dating.

    Since the narrative is about baser instincts what is more basic than the sexual composite.

    The other narrative is about being afraid about trusting a Muslim black guy.

  5. leytenian

    KG,

    don’t misunderstand me on credit crunch. it could mean limited access to cash for business growth. one can sustain and one can fall . This is where skills and experience will apply. Credit crunch is worst when income is lost. there’s lots of opportunities in a down market. i do agree with you that credit crunch has been felt by many. if I worry? i did but I cannot worry everyday… that’s not me. but thank you for asking.

  6. leytenian

    hvrds,
    “Michelle is hot as an Amazon female in animal skin. Kasi may lahing Pinay. Exotic ang dating.”

    hahaha… funny. may lahing pinay? pinay don’t have big ass like her…

    a muslim apostate you mean? … yes that’s obama.

  7. leytenian

    sorry… in fairness. obama might win.

  8. hvrds

    hvrds: if Nov 4 you can vote but did not vote, well, then you are hvrds. If you vote on US elections Nov 4-08 and you did not vote for Obama…. and you did not vote for Mccain…. then you 100%-for-sure picked a loser.

    It would be interesting to see the voter turnout in the U.S. this time around. Normally less than 50% of the eligible voters do vote in the U.S. elections. Higher turnouts tend to favor the Democrats.

    “In a world where the dollar is supreme, Uncle Sam should be more responsible for international financial stability, not less. There would be an increasing compelling argument that the Federal Reserve should see itself as a global central bank, and the Congress and White House should see U.S. trade and financial policy as keys to global stability, not tools to further U.S. interests. On a recent visit to Yale, the mayor of Beijing said -only half jokingly-that it would make sense if the whole world had a vote in American elections, because U.S. decisions have so large an impact worldwide.”

    “When historians look back on this period they may well give more weight to the power that one-currency world conferred on the United States than that granted by our men and women in uniform, serving in Afghanistan and Iraq. But whether Washington will recognize the responsibility that comes with this power-well, that will be the big question.” Jeffrey Gartner former official during Clinton’s term. This was just during the crisis that started in Asia.

  9. hvrds

    Psssssst . China is one of the major countries financing McCains aircraft carriers indirectly……..

    Fight fight fight…… But your major enemy is financing you….

    Otherwise your middle class would disappear……

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/05/business/worldbusiness/05yuan.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

    “For instance, a Chinese blogger complained last month, “It is as if China has made a gift to the United States Navy of 200 brand new aircraft carriers.”

    “Bankers estimate that $1 trillion of China’s total foreign exchange reserves of $1.8 trillion are in American securities. With aircraft carriers costing up to $5 billion apiece, $1 trillion would, in theory, buy 200 of them.”

  10. rego

    psst hvrds, maybe you should join the US political blogs kung marami ka nga alam sa US politics. Stop floofing this forum now. O baka naman gusto mo lang mag pa impress sa mga pinoy na marmi ka nga alam sa US politics. Just like what you have been trying to impress them that you know a lot about economics.

  11. cvj

    moderator na pala si rego ngayon.

  12. inodoro ni emilie

    cvj, haha. self-appointed?

  13. jcc

    cjv,

    i know economics a little bit and i translate this economic sophism in layman’s language. like opening up financial system of the third world countries to the savage onslaught of international monopoly: i translate it to mean that Intel Corporation can put up its local company in EPZA Cavite and hired local engineers at a rate higher than Meralco engineers.

    The effect is it will destroy our local industry if we have a Pinoy manufacturing microchips like Intel, but if we do not have, it has no effect in our industry.

    If we open up, MultiNational companies will gravitate to P.I. to avail of cheap labor, cheap labor only if compared to labor cost if the product being produced by these companies are produced in highly developed countries.

    you see people, we can translate your economic sophism in clear and simple language… but the use of hyfalutin english is a simple display of pedantry.

    🙂 🙂

  14. jcc

    ann coulter a rabid attack dog for the republican. but at least she was vocal that she is a republican. how about hvrds, can we call him/her attack dog of the democracts, then she/he has to register first as a democract. 🙂

  15. jcc

    HVRDS on September 4th, 2008 at 11:48 am

    One of the most interesting about thing about the adversarial nature of American judicial system is the fact that at the start of any legal dispute there is a discovery process to put both sides on the same leveling process and so one can narrow the matters in dispute.

    “Anyone who reads economics knows that it is often aridly impervious to the cultural specificities and political constraints that shape real-world events. Pages filled with equations describe a world not of
    fallible people and imperfect governments, but of “agents” and “actors” who are supposedly as rational as Star Trek’s Mr. Spock.”

    waaaaahhhhhhhh ! !! ! i am getting constipated. i just manage the third grade and i quit school. 🙂

  16. filAm Democrat :

    to jcc: cjv and inidoro ni emilie defend hvrds but only for now. hvrds will lose them as acolytes on the day that hvrds wants a return to Greece participatory political structure when women, foreigners and slaves were not allowed to vote.

  17. nash

    companero jcc masyadong galit sa muslim ha, nabentahan ka ba ng pekeng dvd?

  18. cvj

    jcc (at 9:11 pm), the Intel in EPZA scenario that you illustrate is not an example of “opening up the financial system”. Instead, ‘Opening up the financial system’ has to do with financial liberalization, i.e. making it easier to obtain financing from foreign sources. You have to correct your translation accordingly.

    On the effects of opening up the financial system on economic growth, Dani Rodrik writes:

    it is difficult to find evidence that countries that freed up capital flows have experienced sustained economic growth as a result. In fact, many emerging markets experienced declines in investment rates. Nor, on balance, has liberalization of capital flows stabilized consumption.

    Most intriguingly, the countries that have done the best in recent years are those that relied the least on foreign financing. China, the world’s growth superstar, has a huge current-account surplus, which means that it is a net lender to the rest of the world. Among other high-growth countries, Vietnam’s current account is essentially balanced, and India has only a small deficit…

  19. jcc

    NASH,

    i am not against the muslim, in fact i have a best friend in college who is a muslim. i am against the muslims who comouflage their desire to have their own republic by strapping bandoleers and caressing armalites, howitzers and grenade launchers and have the nerve to claim that what all they want is peace ! ! !

    cvj,

    translation may be off, but the message is clear. please spell out economics sophistry in english, not in gibberish language. as i said, i get constipated. 🙂

  20. jcc

    cvj,

    it is already settled that borrowing to finance current obligations is bad for any economy. everybody knows that. even kindergartens know that if their parents borrow money so they can go to school while they can manage to skip kindergartens and go directly to first grade, or to tap savings and local reserves instead of borrowing are better options that would not be disastrous to our economy.

    no need to cite authorities with hyfalutin language just to hammer the point that borrowing does not bring long lasting benefits to the borrower. in local dialect, “lulubog sa utang hanggang leeg”.

    Dedbt servicing will be prioritized by bureaucrats to the detriment of the delivery of goods and services to the people because foreign investments are tied up to media moguls who can destabilze your regimes if you fail to come up with your amortization.

    foreign loans also come with “commission” that goes to the front-ending negotiators and facilitators which brings the ZTE deal to mind.

    foreign credit agreements are also tied up with consultant/technology covenants that facilitate the entry of foreign experts and technorats in the country that draw salaries/fees from the principal sum borrowed and the country pays for their salaries/fees by way of debt service on the principal and interests.

    there is nothing wrong with my understanding of opening up financial system of the third world countries….. my only problem is with people who would wish to mesmerize their readers with concepts and ideas sauted in pedantry and in elizabethan english. 🙂

  21. hvrds

    “psst hvrds, maybe you should join the US political blogs kung marami ka nga alam sa US politics. Stop floofing this forum now. O baka naman gusto mo lang mag pa impress sa mga pinoy na marmi ka nga alam sa US politics. Just like what you have been trying to impress them that you know a lot about economics.”another base institictive reaction from probably a female of the species.”

    That is exactly the only tactic that the rightists in American politics are using and similarly that GMA is using here. When facts hurt you simply attack the messenger. Plus a few of the pundits are so obviously linguistically illiterate in the language of the Anglo -Saxons.

    Basang basa na yan.

    Hitler did the exact same thing dring the depth of the economic crisis in Germany. Find a fictitous enemy and ram it up his sphincter muscle.

    Fight, fight fight, eh naka baon sa utang ang kano at ang mga bansang nagpapautang sa kanila ay uupakan daw ni McCain. Hilo ba sa????

    It is tough to come to the realization that military power has its limits. McCain is living in the days of the Cold War. His entire frame is his experience as a POW.

    The man who vetted Palin was a guy named James Dobson. A religious nut.

    The U.S. under Bush 43 has brought the world to the cusp of major tectonic shifts. Let us look at the Pinas in the light of this.

    Atat na atat si McCain na atakihin and Iran. Kamikaze si McCain. What would happen if that were to come to pass.

    The far right Christians are also the end of days zealots. The believe that we are close to the Final war. The chosen enemy is Islam. The Jews will be finally converted and the Messiah will return.

    The Phils has a 30-60 day supply of oil and gas. Something happens of that nature and the cost of food skyrockets and we will have to switch to bicycles. What happens to the majority of people who live at the edge. The entire system will be upended.

    Why is crude oil whose avergae cost of production is between $5 – $15 over $100 dollars a barrel.

    Proof of this is the surge in income of the oil companies and the oil producing countries.

    There is a replay of the early 20th century when globalization was being bandied about and disputes on trade settlements and access to resources has started to break out. Warfare then was an accepted form of dispute resolution. Poison gas was even an accepted part of the arsenal.

    The extreme right in the U.S., the group that McCain is pandering to look at smitting evil nations as part of dogma.

    It is okay if you need to rasie cash but it becomes intolerable when one has a kamikaze frame and is 72 and the person chosen to be next in line from a very insulated isolated place. Plus she looks to be a fundamentalist evangelical.

    The very equal of Amahdinejad. Great going John.

    “We are all Americans now. By this I do not merely mean that the leadership of the US shapes the world in which we live. The world we live in is the world the Americans or, more precisely, the Anglo-Americans have made. The US will retain a huge influence. How will it use it? That is the question we should ask about the presidential election. The choice also seems clear: it is between those who expect a world of conflict and those who believe in seeking co-operation.” Martin Wolf FT

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/78274ce0-7917-11dd-9d0c-000077b07658.html

    “Then there is the matter of temperament. Mr Bush is a sunny and optimistic person. Mr McCain is funnier, darker and angrier. Mr Bush steered clear of Vietnam. Mr McCain really is a warrior, whose autobiography begins “I was born into a tradition of military service” – and whose books are full of brooding reflections on the nature of honour.”

    “In international crises, the character and instincts of the American president are critical. Mr Obama is by temperament a cautious, pragmatic conciliator. Mr McCain is aggressive, unorthodox and radical. ”

    “Sometimes, of course, the radical choice is the right one. Mr McCain would be an interesting choice for president. But safe? Forget about it.”

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2f78b52e-7827-11dd-acc3-0000779fd18c.html
    McCain and Palin could be deadly combination for the world…..

    Fight fight fight fight….Be careful what you wish for.

  22. grd

    ann coulter a rabid attack dog for the republican. but at least she was vocal that she is a republican. how about hvrds, can we call him/her attack dog of the democracts, then she/he has to register first as a democract. … jcc

    jcc, are you a registered republican?

  23. hvrds

    “there is nothing wrong with my understanding of opening up financial system of the third world countries….. my only problem is with people who would wish to mesmerize their readers with concepts and ideas sauted in pedantry and in elizabethan english.” Totally still clueless…….

    Nagkaguerra na dalawang beses ang buong mundo na ang ugat ay nakatali sa kaninong pera ay ipapagamit sa mundong kalakalan.

    Is there a proper translation of linguistic illiteracy?????

    How do you translate the difference between the gold exchange standard and fiat currency standard…

    fiat hindi yung kotse.

    fiat which means state authority…. authority meaning the sole power to impose which is a creation of and by law.

    Abogado pa daw ang nagsulat yung nasa quotation marks.

  24. jcc

    hvrds,

    that’s why you always lost me. you speak martian language. spell it out to me gently. your sarcasm shows your annoyance and i am still at my best wit. 🙂

  25. leytenian

    hvrds,

    on financing… utang nang US from china and other countries… it is very obvious you don’t know finance…. no business experience in real world. why would I spend all my cash if I can borrow. the concept of OPM is very common. even in our very own central bank. Philipine itself is highly leverage in a negative way. we borrowed money to invest in infrastructure with zero return. Until now… we are still paying and relying on EVAT….

    On China… Companies from China, India and other Asian nations are seen getting the first contracts in IRAQ…

    “NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Despite claims by some critics that the Bush administration invaded Iraq to take control of its oil, the first contracts with major oil firms from Iraq’s new government are likely to go not to U.S. companies, but rather to companies from China, India, Vietnam, and Indonesia.

    While Iraqi lawmakers struggle to pass an agreement on exactly who will award the contracts and how the revenue will be shared, experts say a draft version that passed the cabinet earlier this year will likely uphold agreements previously signed by those countries under Saddam Hussein’s government.

    US always know how to pay their debts either by sabotage or simple basic finance… OPM
    (i don’t need to explain this further)

    On the the other hand…. US and China Free trade agreement… what if US will placed a cap on corporation to import from chinese products. What will happen to chinese labor? US and the world media can easily ruin chinese brand… It is not a brand, by the way.

    You might be brainwashed by corporate media….lol

  26. jcc

    hvrds,

    i think your basic problem is reading all the mainstream media with their unabashed bias against mccain and palin and when you see something that are pro-mccain and palin you easily blow your top and call them nuts and illiterate and went to a disruptive fit that you started blabbering martian language. i don’t call you illiterate though you have different perception that I do. that is the spirit of democracy… free exchange of ideas…. not ramming your belief and expert opinion on the throats of other. … but please speak english. 🙂

  27. leytenian

    hvrds only knows economic , yet there are other areas of management that needs to be taken in consideration….

    international law, marketing, finance, accounting, quality of service and products, social responsibilities and most of all networking ( in countries— it is called allies or member country)

    kapoy sii ka.

  28. hvrds

    There might be hope for the future Pinoys. The pinoy cultural wreckage that is the present cannot be changed. Just look at the previous postings….

    “The right to learn in one’s own language”

    By Magtanggol Gunigundo
    Philippine Daily Inquirer

    Posted date: September 06, 2008

    “Education is power. And language is the key to accessing that power.”

    “When a child receives an education in a language that he or she does not understand, this violates the child’s right to be literate and be educated. Articles 28 and 30 of the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child provide that all children have the right to an education and to learn and use the language of his family.”

    “A few months ago, I authored a bill (HB 3719) in the House of Representatives calling for the use of the first language as the primary medium of instruction from preschool to Grade 6. I also advocated for the strong teaching of English and Filipino in the elementary grades, but only as separate subjects and not as media of instruction.”

    “I refer to the first language, or L1, as that language first learned by a child, which (s)he identifies with or is identified by others as a native speaker of, or which (s)he knows best or uses most. To me, any language after the first is a second language, or an L2.”
    “By using the child’s L1 for basic education, we start from what they already know and build on this. Since the child is already familiar with L1, learning to read and write in that language will be easy. The child can immediately use this language to add new concepts to what (s)he has already learned. Rote memorization where children know how to “read” but do not understand can be avoided.”

    “The strategy is to develop the children’s cognitive, academic and linguistic skills in their L1 and gradually transfer this knowledge in the nationally prescribed languages, English and Filipino. These two L2s can and should be systematically taught as separate subjects throughout the elementary level. By the time the Filipino child reaches high school, (s)he would have learned enough English and Filipino to use them as media of instruction.”

    http://opinion.inquirer.net/inquireropinion/columns/view/20080906-159007/The-right-to-learn-in-ones-own-language

  29. hvrds

    Let us see whether the cognitive skills of the regulars can absorb these two web-casts by two of the most popular political pundits today. Cognition…..

    http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/index.jhtml?episodeId=184093

    http://www.comedycentral.com/colbertreport/full-episodes/index.jhtml?episodeId=180323

  30. leytenian

    ouch… lol

  31. jcc

    popular pundits because they are pro-democrats, their counterparts are called attack-dogs, rabit at that. why not open your mind that truth, talent and patriotism is not the monopoly of the democrats only . 🙂

  32. jcc

    popular pundits because they are pro-democrats, their counterparts are called attack-dogs, rabid at that. why not open your mind that truth, talent and patriotism is not the monopoly of the democrats only . 🙂

  33. jcc

    popular pundits because they are pro-democrats, their counterparts are called attack-dogs, rabid at that. why not open your mind that truth, talent and patriotism is not the monopoly of the democrats only . 🙂

  34. jcc

    manolo, please delete the first two duplicate posts. sorry about that.

  35. Andres

    YOU! Yes you. It was your grandfather’s fault, and the all the so-called nationalists, that the Philippines is now in a sorry state.

    Your grandfather said that it is better for the Philippines to be led by a fellow Filipino than a foreigner.

    Well, look at us now. The Filipinos CANNOT govern themselves and that is a fact!

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