Peace in our time?

Update: Well, well, well: SC stops MOA signing. Interesting because before the Supremes’ intervention was even reported, Ding Gagelonia was reporting MILF Sets Ancestral Domain Pact Signing on August 25, Not Tomorrow in his blog!

Without any explanation the Moro Islamic Liberation Fron is reporting on its web site, luwaran.com, that the controversial signing of what it says “is considered as the most significant and historic event that ever happened in the annals of the 11-year old GRP-MILF Peace Talks” is being held on August 25 and not tomorrow as earlier announced by Malacanang.

The MILF report goes on to say that “in term (sic) of significance, the MILF views this signing ceremony as at par with the signing of the Tripoli Agreement of 2001 in Tripoli, Libya.”

“Composing the MILF delegation are: 1) MILF Peace Panel; 2) Secretariat; 3) Technical Committee, whose membership were former members of the MILF Technical Working Group (TWG); 4) Back Staff of the MILF Peace Panel; and 5) representatives of MILF-nominated NGOs.

The group which originally broke away from Nur Misuari’s Moro National Liberation Front also says it has “sent some 50 persons including its peace panel, secretariat, technical committee, and representatives of its nominated non-government organizations (NGOs) to the formal signing ceremony of the memorandum of agreement on ancestral domain (MOA-AD) in Putrajaya, Selangor, Malaysia August 25.”

This unexplained postponement comes in the face of mounting opposition to the agreement which, although it is being downplayed by Malacanang, is also being challenged in thre Supreme Court and non-Muslim officials, among them Malacanang ally, North Cotabato vice governer Manny Pinol.

***

Last Thursday, my column, An undemocratic decorum , focused on the glitterati who inspired public revulsion during the President’s State of the Nation Address.

But the essential starting point is a remarkable entry in his blog by Jove Francisco, who provided background information on the preparation of the President’s speech, including some points that were dropped at the last minute: and how those preparations belied the Palace’s claims that it had merely shrugged off the devastating survey results released on the eve of the President’s address. The decision to focus on a catalog of achievements was a conscious effort to reclaim public opinion (he also has an intriguing portion on how the Palace may have commissioned its own survey in order to prop up Joseph Estrada as a straw man to help propel Charter Change: it reminds me of this diary entry by Ferdinand Marcos).

He also blogged that the President’s people all assumed a discreet go-ahead for constitutional amendments had been given (former Chief Justice Panganiban in recent columns discussed how such a change is neither constitutionally or legally impossible nor politically insurmountable):

As previously announced by the officials of the Presidential Management Staff, there will be no mention of Charter Change.

But conversations with sources from the political scene confirmed that Chacha may not have been heard in the halls of congress during the SONA, but it sure is being talked about by those concerned, “yun nga lang ay pabulong pa”.

Secretary Dureza, when I asked him about the President’s Mindanao plan, was evasive but, old pro that he is, immediately countered by saying the Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process would be reporting to the House, but he probably knew by then that the real news would that House panel approves ARMM poll suspension.

Since then, of course, and rapidly (though Reuters reported about it on July 16, see Philippines, Muslim rebels reach deal on homeland), since the story has basically unfolded in about a week, the public has come to realize that it has very little time to grasp the full implications of the President’s comments on Mindanao and the peace deal with the MILF. While we don’t know whether the pros or cons did the leaking, details of the proposed agreement began to be reported over the weekend: Bangsomoro to get own state: Gov’t, MILF to sign ancestral domain pact Tuesday.

Public opinion, this early on, is divided -and even heated. It reminds me of this:

At first hailed as a conquering hero, by the outbreak of World War II, Neville Chamberlain was despised as an appeaser and Appeasement has been our political vocabulary as a negative thing since. In recent decades, though, historians have taken to proposing that what Chamberlain did was buy time, so that Britain could better rearm for the inevitable confrontation with Germany. In our case, the question is whether the public believes a peace deal with the MILF is in the national interest or not. Certain provinces tried to intervene in the Supreme Court, but the government told the Supreme Court the contents of the deal are covered by executive privilege. See SC starts deliberations on appeal vs MOA:

Shortly after the high court started its session, government, through Solicitor General Agnes Devanadera, sent its comment to the petition filed by officials of North Cotabato province, asking the high court to dismiss their appeal for a disclosure of the contents of the MOA, Marquez said.

Marquez said the high court gave the government until 12 noon Monday to submit its document, which arrived shortly after the high court began its deliberations.

By invoking executive privilege, in its 26-page comment, the government said while negotiations with the MILF did not involve any foreign power, there were military and national concerns raised.

“This being so, the entire process, the negotiations involving the said MOA and the drafts, documents thereof resulting from said negotiations is covered by the doctrine of executive privilege, which prevents the disclosure of information that could subvert military or diplomatic objectives,” the solicitor general said.

But then again the draft of the agreement is already available on line. See the full text of the RP-MILF draft pact on Bangsamoro homeland. As for the agreement itself, two entries in Mon Casiple’s blog cover all the controversial bases in the agreement. See MILF decoy for cha-cha and Disturbing BJE questions. As it is, Casiple provides a chart put together by Bong Montesa, part of the government’s negotiating team, and so it’s safe to assume the chart is authoritative, and puts forward the official game plan (in his blog, colleague John Nery thinks the President is not giving out marching orders, but rather, making an appeal):

peace-is-possible-timeline2001.jpg

Now what, exactly, does the game plan cover, in terms of territory? first, let’s begin with this Wikipedia map, which shows the present ARMM in Green:

800px-Mindanao_regions.PNG

Then let’s refer to this:

BJE.jpg

The image above is taken from ABS-CBN’s scan of the draft agreement, and shows the areas proposed for inclusion in the expanded ARMM which would then constitute the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity. You will notice that the areas in black, the areas where the government commits to holding a plebiscite, correspond pretty much, to these 19th Century maps of the old Sultanate of Sulu (from the Perry-Castaneda Library Map Collection)..

There is this German map from 1859, note the demarcation line for Spanish-controlled areas of the Philippines:

political_control_german_view_1859.jpg

Another map from the same year shows the demarcation line more clearly:

jedo_bay_1858.jpg

Another map this one, which is from an 1892 American encyclopedia map, also retains the basic delineation between areas under direct Spanish control and the territory of the old Sultanate of Sulu (in yellow):

asia_1892_amer_ency_brit.jpg

These maps cover a period that, based on one timeline put forward by , circumscribed the authority of the Sultan of Sulu and established the area as a Spanish protectorate:

March.1877 – The Sulu Protocol was signed between Spain, England, and Germany that recognized Spain’s rights over Sulu and, in consideration for the said lease of North Borneo, ended European hostilities in the area

July 22, 1878 – Sultan Jamal ul-Alam signed a treaty with the Spanish Crown making whole of Sulu a protectorate of Spain yet retained her autonomy and the privilege to fly own flag thus saved Jolo from further destruction.

1883 – Manila Spanish government established a customs house in Ciudad de Zamboanga to clear goods coming into the Sultanate of Sulu but, on the insistence of the British, Jolo was declared a free port and trade continued.

After which, of course, took place American efforts, by treaty and conquest, to establish American sovereignty over the Sultanate. That in itself calls for a separate, future entry, as it’s the American conquest of the old Sultanate of Sulu that leads, in turn, to the question of the Republic’s sovereignty over Muslim areas in Mindanao.

But for now, this blog entry in stuart-santiago, asks why should it even be that outright independence for Muslim areas isn’t a widely-acceptable option. To her, it is.

As for myself, my contention today is that The agreement itself is the prize. It does not matter if the whole thing doesn’t take off, what matters to the MILF is getting the government representatives to formally sign the memorandum. The Warrior Lawyer also seems to think so, tooL but says the agreement is a recipe for bloodshed. See a view from Davao in Alleba Politics:

I, among many here Mindanao, have been seeking out for the restoration of peace in the island.

My Muslim friend is optimistic that the agreement can bring peace to Mindanao, but he also fears it might lead to war. For one, he questions the sole representation of the entire Muslim population by MILF.

This MoA, I fear, reeks of insincerity, a strong decisive political move with many repercussions. I do not want to wait and see how it plays out because too many lives have been lost. And in the process, it has all become military and political. What our Muslim brothers want and need, in my opinion, cannot be simply answered by such military and political solutions.

A hawkish response, including a reproduction of Tony Abaya’s column quoting Bobi Tiglao’s visit to the MILF’s base of operations in the 1990s, appears in Tatay Pepes Restobar in General Santos City, Philippines. The announcement by the MILF that the agreement will be signed on August 25, also makes for interesting reading, giving a glimpse of those it considers its enemies.

221 comments

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    • BrianB on August 6, 2008 at 7:03 am

    hvrds. It’s ridiculous no matter how you put it.

    • UP n student on August 6, 2008 at 7:21 am

    I have “listened” to d0d0ng and others, and I still see not a thing as to why a Filipino of Mindanao would want to be a subject of MILF-as-policemen/legal-guardian for BJE. I can see why a hundred or so men (and their alipures) want the power that comes with being big-men of BJE; why would a teen-age girl not related to any BJE-powerbroker want to be there? I can not see why citizens would want to be subject-of-BJE other than either (ONE) Pare-pareho lang ang mga iyan. Or (TWO) kapit-patalim surely anything — even submitting to the gentle kindhearted extra-brave KFR-beheading MILF BJE-policemen — anything is better than this.

    Now it makes more sense why the MILF did not allow the insertion of a provision of how a baranggay can get out of the BM-bangsa ng MILF. Once they gotcha… they got yah.

    ===================

    Hey, d0d0ng…. did the thought ever enter your mind to be a balik-sa-bayan-ng-bangsamoro ? Does anyone know anyone who is thinking of going balik-sa-bayan-ng-bangsamoro ?

    • d0d0ng on August 6, 2008 at 7:21 am

    “Balkanization of RP”.

    “One of the most important lessons to be learned from the partition of Pakistan and India”.

    The India and Pakistan were separated. BJE is still under Philippines as a country.

    • d0d0ng on August 6, 2008 at 7:42 am

    “Hey, d0d0ng…. did the thought ever enter your mind to be a balik-sa-bayan-ng-bangsamoro ? Does anyone know anyone who is thinking of going balik-sa-bayan-ng-bangsamoro”.

    Say my armed relatives join the BJE and integrated into MILF. I can go balik-sa-bayan-ng-bangsamoro with peace and security.

    MILF is always cast as an enemy because they are fighting a war for their aspirations. But if the US ambassador was in Malaysia to witness the signing that showed a different perspective.

    • justice league on August 6, 2008 at 8:05 am

    Dodong,

    “Say my armed relatives join the BJE and integrated into MILF. I can go balik-sa-bayan-ng-bangsamoro with peace and security.”

    So you are implying that you have armed relatives already.

    And you are implying that you’ll have peace and security when you go balik-sa-bayan-ng-bangsamoro when they integrate to the MILF.

    Too bad for those who don’t have such relatives then.

    • justice league on August 6, 2008 at 8:05 am

    Dodong,

    “Say my armed relatives join the BJE and integrated into MILF. I can go balik-sa-bayan-ng-bangsamoro with peace and security.”

    So you are implying that you have armed relatives already.

    And you are implying that you’ll have peace and security when you go balik-sa-bayan-ng-bangsamoro when they integrate to the MILF.

    Too bad for those who don’t have such relatives then.

    • d0d0ng on August 6, 2008 at 8:06 am

    Forumers especially those living in Luzon are having hard time to grasp how to live along with Muslim Filipinos. My aunt is a doctor married to a white American expat and they both live with Muslim Filipinos in the south for over 40 yrs. The husband said he will be the last American to leave the place because the influential muslims in their place treated both of them with respects.

    • KG on August 6, 2008 at 8:10 am

    Balkanization of RP”.

    “One of the most important lessons to be learned from the partition of Pakistan and India”.

    Bakit kailangan pa ng ibang analogy, why look far than the origin of the term balkanization. The Balkans and of curse Yugoslavia

    • KG on August 6, 2008 at 8:12 am

    Balkanization of RP”.

    “One of the most important lessons to be learned from the partition of Pakistan and India”.

    Bakit kailangan pa ng ibang analogy, why look far than the origin of the term balkanization. The Balkans and of course Yugoslavia

    • KG on August 6, 2008 at 8:21 am

    So the MILF has learned a lesson or two from the VFA treaty,
    They say it is a done deal because it is already initialized.

    • d0d0ng on August 6, 2008 at 8:28 am

    If the MILF is so bad, why would US ambassador was meeting with MILF officials during the height of Arroyo’s broadband scandal?

    Why would US insisted of constructing port in the south that can handle large ocean going vessels, or USAID be used to construct airport that can handle no less than a 747?

    The bad things about MILF is too much of hype.

    • d0d0ng on August 6, 2008 at 8:34 am

    It looks like the Americans knew the MILF more than Filipinos in Luzon knew about their Muslim Filipino brothers. Hehe.

    • Bencard on August 6, 2008 at 8:48 am

    cut out your homespun pretenses, hrvds, whatever you are. stick to your kakamamie economic nonesense. wadayamin “reality banging up against the theory on how things are supposed to work”?

    • justice league on August 6, 2008 at 9:06 am

    Dodong,

    Do you know the head of the PLO was welcomed in the White House by an American president back then.

    • Bencard on August 6, 2008 at 9:08 am

    abe margallo, i don’t know ghadzali jaafar other than that he is a leader of the milf. what does he know about the binding effect of contract? who cares what he says?

    • KG on August 6, 2008 at 9:10 am

    d0dong;
    Yes to mutual respect and coexistence .

    ganyan sa ibang bansa walang paki alaman.
    Dito di pwede walang paki alaman ;kung halimbawa if it is true that one treasure hunter hid a treasure in a cave and it is now shared by many stakeholders, the military ,the police,the local gov and the MILF and keep it secret to everyone except for a few photo ops. would you like it to remain that way ,assuming it is no BS?

    • leytenian on August 6, 2008 at 9:23 am

    Hi dodong,

    I have a question related to the Draft Pact of Bangsamoro Homeland? My understanding is that our government is making an pre-agreement with the GOOD MILF like you, right?
    http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20080804-152469/GRP-MILF-draft-pact-on-Bangsamoro-homeland

    On Governance:
    3. The Parties agree to invite a multinational third-party to observe and monitor the actual implementation of the comprehensive compact which will embody the details for the effective enforcement of this Agreement. The participation of the third-party shall not in any way affect the status of the relationship between the Central Government and the BJE.

    what do you mean by third multinational party? I do have my own assessment but I just want to clarify this from you.

    9. The Parties further agree to undertake activities which will enhance the capacity of the government institutions during the transition through technical assistance, information-sharing and human resource development.

    The key word is Information Sharing…. I also have an idea what this means… Could this be the information on how to locate the BAD MILF ( extremist)..

    If I have to review real estate… Does the Bangsamoro land or ancestral land been surveyed and real owners are registered and located?
    In my understanding, Ancestral Lands are subject to land Reform and economic Zoning. Economic Zoning includes government own land when ancestral owners couldn’t keep up with payment of property taxes. Are the ancestral owners wanting their land back?

    But I do agree with you that BJE is part of Philippines. Like Cebu or Leyte becoming a Federal State. IT’s the same concept except n Bangsamoro , you still have the extremists. Am I right?

    • leytenian on August 6, 2008 at 9:28 am

    Dodong,

    On : Are the ancestral owners wanting their land back?
    I mean the owners who have not paid property taxes but instead fighting and killing?

    BRIEF HISTORY OF BANGSAMORO STRUGGLE
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYP9UYxlnyc

    • leytenian on August 6, 2008 at 9:43 am

    I have been browsing Mindanao on its support for Charter Change… I have found Economic Zoning by Jojie Ilagan- Bian. “There are twenty one (21) ecozones in the whole island of Mindanao which is registered at the Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA).”
    http://mindanaworld.blogspot.com/2006/03/ecozones-in-mindanao.html

    Dodong,
    Can you tell me which area and what developments are already in progress within bangsamoro land. Is it part of Jojie’s 21 ecozone

    Mindanao has been prepared to ChaCha..
    My feeling, it has been implemented and in the process.

    • UP n student on August 6, 2008 at 10:14 am

    Twenty-euros whereever d0d0ng will be in 2014, it will not be in Mindanao. Even if his wife says “sure, why not????”, d0d0ng will not do a balik-sa-Mindanao…. not to BM–bayan-ng-bangsamoro and not even to non-BJE Surigao.

    • hvrds on August 6, 2008 at 10:31 am

    The richest man in India today is a Muslim who owns Wipro. The company is engaged in software development.

    The last President of India was also a Muslim, a nuclear physicist who developed the nuclear capabilities of India. The Indian government recently approved the U.S. nuclear technology sharing agreement. Why the difference between India and Pakistan. They call it institutions of government.

    Meanwhile in Pakistan that was built on theological lines the conceptualizers of 9/11 were Pakistanis. Their nuclear expert was primarily responsible for spreading nuclear technology to Iran, Iraq and Libya. he was most probably aided and abetted by the same inteliggence group that till this day supports the Taliban.

    The main safe haven for Al Qaeda is in the tribal areas of Pakistan.

    Is there such a rabid theological position in the Balkans????The most rabid theological based struggle that is close to that area is in Chechnya.

    The communists led by Tito imposed and created Yugoslavia. He passed and it reverted back to what it was.

    The U.S. desperately needs a new type of mercenary fighter to fight this so called existentialist warfare.

    They need to make allies of Muslims to fight in this war.

    “Despite growing anti-Americanism, U.S. citizenship is still one of the world’s most precious commodities, so there should be no shortage of volunteers. Since proficiency in English would presumably be important for those joining the armed forces, we might focus on South Asia, Anglophone Africa, and parts of Latin America, Europe and East Asia (the Philippines would be a natural recruiting ground) where English is common as a second language. These regions have more than 2 billion people, tens of millions of whom reach military age each year.”
    Creating a U.S. Foreign Legion
    http://www.afji.com/2007/03/2552879

    • d0d0ng on August 6, 2008 at 10:42 am

    “Do you know the head of the PLO was welcomed in the White House by an American president back then?”

    “you still have the extremists. Am I right?”

    US initiative is to deal with a PLO type rather than it become a Hamas type of insurgency. It will have better traction dealing with MILF and diminish the extremist Abu Sayaf.

    • hvrds on August 6, 2008 at 10:56 am

    “You’re obviously a die-hard anti-American guy/gal, whatever/whoever you are! Are you one of those Filipinos who applied for a US Visa and was denied? Just wondering? Or perhaps, you’re of those Filipino communists. There are over four million of us Filipino-Americans in the US who love both America and the Philippines. Any quesion, Mr/Ms. Whiner?” A pitiful and desperate attempt at informed punditry.

    Objective basis or criterion for truth or reality.

    When one defines his reality or ratifies his existence based on having an American green card or having acquired American citizenship, we have to be charitable.

    That is the seeming import of the above quote. It is a reminder that when one comes to discuss ideas some are totally oblivious and totally unarmed.

    Evolutionary psychology would tend to tell us that we are school-able and trainable just like dogs and chimps. However the self awareness or self evident factor is key and sometimes well……………….

    Self ratification must come from within. The Objective criterion for truth comes from that.

    • Jeg on August 6, 2008 at 11:33 am

    This exercise assumes that the people of Mindanao ratify their autonomy in a plebiscite. Let me just say that Im coming from a position where human life and the right to self-determination is more important than territorial integrity. You can’t force a human to be part of something he doesnt want to be a part of.

    “Why is it all important that they remain with the north at all costs?”

    Kicker there was the ‘at all costs’ part. So the deaths of thousands on both sides so far is merited because…

    cvj: Because theyre Filipinos, too. This is a good reason but somewhat sentimental. But look, who are sending out there to ‘subdue’ them? The military, that’s who. Is that something a government does to its citizens? You send soldiers to fight a war against foreign aggression. By sending soldiers, we’re saying in effect, ‘We dont consider you Filipinos.’ ‘Because theyre Filipinos too’ is like the old Yugoslavia saying to the Bosnians, ‘Youre Yugoslavians, too.’

    Jakcast: For self-respect. True. If the corpses are kept from the public eye, then it’s easy to be proud of the government’s accomplishments in keeping the territorial integrity of the Philippines and have self-respect. But I wonder how much we’ll be respecting ourselves if we come face-to-face with dead bodies of both Christians and Muslims.

    supremo: Sabah, Spratleys, Sulu Sea. If we lose Mindanao, we lose Sabah, but not Spratleys. I asked this question over at the FV site: What rights do Malaysia and the Philippines have over a territory (the Sultanate of Sulu) that pre-existed them both? Benign0’s answer was not about rights but about who possesses it now, that is, which army is there. Nine-tenths of the law and all that. We want Sabah for out own selfish ends and not for the Sultanate of Sulu who should be sovereign over that area if parts of its territory werent occupied by the Philippines and Malaysia. Right now the Sultan finds the status quo — remaining part of Malaysia and the Philippines — acceptable and advantageous, but I think he has a solid claim to making the sultanate an independent territory. As for Spratleys, if an independent Mindanao wants to claim them as well, I’d say take a number.

    UPn (He really didnt answer the question, but anyway…): It’s insane because the MILF is insane, in which he alleges that the MILF are engaged in KFR and beheadings. I have nothing to say about those allegations. I suppose UPn still needs to establish that the Abu Sayyaf and the MILF are one and the same. But he does bring up an important issue: Who can they (Mindanaoans) trust? The central government in Manila or someone who says they represent us? Why not a plebiscite to find out?

    • d0d0ng on August 6, 2008 at 11:52 am

    Leytenian – interpretation of the agreement is best left to MILF which has the greatest stake. The third party provision is for the protection of minority interest of central government due to shift of power. All governance (including land reform,etc) at current form in the MILF areas will be transitioned out to BJE which most probably change everything to pursue their common interest. In short, everything is up in the air following the golden rule, “he who has gold rules”.

    • cvj on August 6, 2008 at 12:05 pm

    US initiative is to deal with a PLO type rather than it become a Hamas type of insurgency. It will have better traction dealing with MILF and diminish the extremist Abu Sayaf. – d0d0ng

    D0d0ng makes a good point on how US foreign policy is done. For example, that’s why the US prefers to deal with authoritarian-moderates like Musharraf to prevent the Taliban-types from gaining the upper hand. However, such policy of dealing with the more moderate factions is ultimately only a delaying tactic as long as the issue of inequality is not resolved. Once you alienate and radicalize enough of the local populace, then even the warlords will be on the run as what has happened in Afghanistan, Somalia and North West Pakistan. That’s why my advocacy since 2005 has been to address the issue of inequality.

    • cvj on August 6, 2008 at 12:14 pm

    cvj: Because theyre Filipinos, too. This is a good reason but somewhat sentimental. – Jeg

    ‘Sentimental’ is fine with me because as any nationalist knows, love of country (or at least) is the key to everything else. Isn’t that what the South Korean (and Indian) letter writer(s) has been trying to tell us?

    But look, who are sending out there to ’subdue’ them? The military, that’s who. Is that something a government does to its citizens? You send soldiers to fight a war against foreign aggression. By sending soldiers, we’re saying in effect, ‘We dont consider you Filipinos.’ ‘Because theyre Filipinos too’ is like the old Yugoslavia saying to the Bosnians, ‘Youre Yugoslavians, too.’ – Jeg

    I agree with you on this point. It’s a dangerous Upper and Middle class conceit to send the military (who mostly come from the lower class) to act like bodyguards. We should have a true citizen’s army by mobilizing the general population of abled bodied adults in the event of war.

    • cvj on August 6, 2008 at 12:20 pm

    [If this becomes a duplicate post, sorry in advance]

    cvj: Because theyre Filipinos, too. This is a good reason but somewhat sentimental. – Jeg

    ‘Sentimental’ is fine with me because as any nationalist knows, love of country (or at least) is the key to everything else. Isn’t that what the South Korean (and Indian) letter writer(s) has been trying to tell us?

    But look, who are sending out there to ’subdue’ them? The military, that’s who. Is that something a government does to its citizens? You send soldiers to fight a war against foreign aggression. By sending soldiers, we’re saying in effect, ‘We dont consider you Filipinos.’ ‘Because theyre Filipinos too’ is like the old Yugoslavia saying to the Bosnians, ‘Youre Yugoslavians, too.’ – Jeg

    I agree with you on this point. It’s a dangerous Upper and Middle class conceit to send the military (who mostly come from the lower class) to act like bodyguards. We should have a true citizen’s army by mobilizing the general population of abled bodied adults in the event of war.

    • Jeg on August 6, 2008 at 12:25 pm

    ‘Sentimental’ is fine with me because as any nationalist knows, love of country (or at least) is the key to everything else.

    Youre right. Far be it from me to underestimate the power of intangibles.

    • UP n student on August 6, 2008 at 12:27 pm

    d0d0ng: you already identified how some of the Mindanao leader-wannabe’s think.

    But Misuari proved that you can only negotiate by guns.

    And gun plus KFR results in gold for board-and-lodging kuno.

    So you shouldn’t be surprised if some Vice-governors disagree when you say interpretation of the agreement is best left to MILF

    • supremo on August 6, 2008 at 12:33 pm

    ‘Now it makes more sense why the MILF did not allow the insertion of a provision of how a baranggay can get out of the BM-bangsa ng MILF. Once they gotcha… they got yah.’

    There is also no provision on what would happen if a baranggay says NO in the plebiscite. Will the MILF leave thenm alone? Will there be a yearly plebiscite for 25 years until they say YES? If I counted it right, this will be the 3rd plebiscite on this issue of Muslim autonomy/homeland. If a girl says no, I believe that means no.

    • supremo on August 6, 2008 at 12:40 pm

    Ghadzali Jaafar said it’s a done deal. Ermita said no. GMA said yes. Esperon said no. Ano ba talaga?

    • kris on August 6, 2008 at 12:40 pm

    Bangsamoro now,

    Republic of Cebu later. This is one of the development this nation will be totally cut.

    Tagalogs, think of it this way. This nation is never existent as fars as it has been. We are composed of different balangays and that balangays are just under the Spanish rule.

    Time will come and different ethnic groups will assert their rules. The Cebuanos are starting it.

    • UP n student on August 6, 2008 at 1:08 pm

    If a girl says no, I believe that means no.

    Not to K-F-R practitioners…. in fact, a KFR-victim-who-paid-once is the better target the second time around since already determined there is gold with that victim!!!

    ===============

    In the meanwhile, watch GMA renege as soon as she senses the Filipino citizenry seriously against MOA-AD, seriously enough to want to impeach.

    • d0d0ng on August 6, 2008 at 1:09 pm

    “So you shouldn’t be surprised if some Vice-governors disagree when you say interpretation of the agreement is best left to MILF.”

    MILF are not forcing those who don’t want BJE. But if the majority constituents of the Vice Governor are for BJE, then you can guess what is left for the vice governor.

    • d0d0ng on August 6, 2008 at 1:13 pm

    “In the meanwhile, watch GMA renege as soon as she senses the Filipino citizenry seriously against MOA-AD, seriously enough to want to impeach.”

    Impeachment is out of issue. The house is for charter change. Only the Senate is standing against it.

    • d0d0ng on August 6, 2008 at 1:17 pm

    “If a girl says no, I believe that means no.”

    Doesn’t count until it tilts the majority per area.

    • hvrds on August 6, 2008 at 1:38 pm

    Unfortunately for Esposo he does not have the logistics to dabble in projections on maintaining empire.

    However the legions and the centurions of empire have the modern means to be pro-active in maintaining empire.

    Just like in economics, finance and politics preparing for warfare can be done using mathematical modeling (Simulations). The danger as in economic and financial modeling is if empire marks their policies on mathematical based theories.

    http://www.motherjones.com/news/featurex/2008/07/dont-know-much-about-history.html

    ONA -(Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment)
    “The report’s language is jargon laden and opaque—a lance used by Macedonian horsemen is referred to as a “primary weapon system.” That may be due to the methodology of “net assessment,” a fancy term for the ONA’s approach to analyzing complicated real-world situations that is rooted in systems analysis and game theory. Military author James Dunnigan compares it to engineering. “You take apart historical events, reassemble them as a simulation, and then tinker with the simulation until you can recreate the historical event accurately,” he explains. “What that allows you to do is play out ‘what if?’ situations: What if Napoleon did this? What if Ghengis Khan did that?”

    “While the study was produced under the auspices of the ONA, its five authors work for government intelligence contractor Booz Allen Hamilton, and they wrote the study as part of a contract for the Defense Department’s Information Assurance Technology Analysis Center. Booz Allen won a 10-year, $200 million cost-plus contract to establish and “host” that center in 1998. (In May, the Carlyle Group announced it will be taking over Booz Allen’s government services arm.)”

    American military is an extension of the business of the business of management and economic efficiencies. McNamara and Gen. Le May were prime actors in carrying out this mindset. The Vietnam war changed that. With the help of Landsdale and Negroponte and the Philippine anti-insurgency models the U.S. military has learned to evolve with the new types of battlefields. Col Napoleon Valeriano was one of the premier advisers and trainors of tthe CIA in preparing for the invasion of Cuba.

    The GWOT is another level with the more professional business-military complex of empire.

    We do have our favorite American Jihadist Bocobo who is a dogmatic believer in Americanism. He has in some other blogs implied that the left who are engaged in an insurgency here in the Philippines are to be considered enemy combatants. Also included in his analysis are the members of the legal fronts of the left. He contends that all these guys can be legitimate targets of the state for liquidation or capture. The same holds true for the totality of Muslims groups.

    This type of discourse in blogs is one thing. He should come out in the mainstream media and declare these ideas just like the guys at Fox news or Rush Limbaugh in the States.

    His religion is Americanism. (Still do not get what it is apart from the same old story of empire.)

    He cannot stand Constantino who had several pieces that are still being read till today. He should write his ideas on Americanism and see if it will stand the test of time.

    He should come out of the blog closet.

    How does one debate this existentialist warfare??????

    What about the future conflicts over resources??????

  1. Hashim Salamat parted ways with Nur Misuari when Misuari decided to accept Muslim autonomy in Tripoli. Salamat wanted nothing short of independence then, his MILF still does.

    If you still believe they won’t declare one, you’re out of touch with reality. No, this won’t be a Hong Kong- style Administrative region, but let’s hope it won’t be another Sabah.

  2. boy, that was supposed to be a reply to an 8 a.m. post. What’s with the blogs today? Nakakapagod na magrefresh, wala pa rin yung comments.

    • cvj on August 6, 2008 at 4:26 pm

    Tongue, i noticed the same thing, sometimes it takes another comment to display a preceding comment which accounts for the duplicate posts.

    • grd on August 6, 2008 at 9:29 pm

    Look at it this way, the Supreme Court TRO on MOA-AD has no effect on the territories controlled by MILF. Manila is powerless to enforce anything. Hence, President Arroyo took the pragmatic approach on power sharing with state under state concept… dodong

    dodong, which areas from the list given by mlq3 (August 5th, 2008 at 9:36 am) are under milf control?

    • justice league on August 6, 2008 at 9:32 pm

    Kris,

    If you are actually a sympathizer of Cebu; my suggestion to you is to tone it down a bit.

    Magellan came to Cebu and he died there. Unfortunately Legazpi later came and subjugated those who defeated Magellan. Sometimes incorporating the defeated into his own mercenary army to wage war elsewhere.

    By acts of war or force, people got displaced.

    One of these days, someone might recommend to the MILF to include substantial parts of Cebu as their Ancestral Domain as some parts of Cebu were previously held by Muslim chieftains notably the likes of Lapu-Lapu.

    What will the Cebuanos be saying then?

    • grd on August 6, 2008 at 9:34 pm

    MILF are not forcing those who don’t want BJE. But if the majority constituents of the Vice Governor are for BJE, then you can guess what is left for the vice governor… dodong

    really, milf’s not forcing it? you really think majority of Pinol’s constituents would say yes to BJE? is that based on facts or you’re just guessing? your statement is a contradiction to what you earlier wrote: “predominantly Christians in other parts of Mindanao will not vote for BJE and become part of it.”

    anyway, here’s the result of the last plebiscite on those areas:

    Establishment of the ARMM

    The Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao region was first created on August 1, 1989 through Republic Act No. 6734 otherwise known as the Organic Act in pursuance with a constitutional mandate to provide for an autonomous area in Muslim Mindanao. A plebiscite was held in the provinces of Basilan, Cotabato, Davao del Sur, Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao, Palawan, South Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Zamboanga del Norte and Zamboanga del Sur; and in the cities of Cotabato, Dapitan, Dipolog, General Santos, Iligan, Marawi, Pagadian, Puerto Princesa and Zamboanga to determine if the residents would want to be part of the ARMM.

    Of the areas where the plebiscites were held only Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi voted favorably for inclusion in the new autonomous region. The ARMM was officially inaugurated on November 6, 1990 in Cotabato City, which was designated as its provisional capital.

    In 2001 a new law was passed for the expansion of the ARMM to include the areas which initially rejected inclusion and the provinces which were carved from them, however only Marawi City and Basilan with the exception of Isabela City opted to be integrated in the region.[4]. wikipedia

    • jakcast on August 6, 2008 at 9:39 pm

    Hope this works this time:

    Jeg, government’s self-respect is not the main point. Rather, it is the latter’s absolute duty to preserve the community of peoples, territory, and effective control under the State as handed down from the Philippine charter, history, and traditions.

    But you’re right, the at all costs part could be the ‘deal breaker.’

    • mang_kiko on August 6, 2008 at 9:41 pm

    abe margallo, i don’t know ghadzali jaafar other than that he is a leader of the milf. what does he know about the binding effect of contract? who cares what he says?

    Who??Marami, andiyan si madame, kandarapa ibigay halos boung mindanao, an andiyan rin sa Machonorin General Esperon, Peace Negotiator kuno, pero ang toto-o peace mensahero lang po…

    • UP n student on August 6, 2008 at 9:58 pm

    so far, I am still left with the conclusion that this MOA-AD/BJE thing can be stopped, and GMA will walk away from the BM idea once she concludes that the Filipino citizenry is vehemently against it. It is NOT a done deal, which is why the MILF insists “… tapos na ang boksing, hindi na kayo makaka-atras” as they raise the specter of more village burning and warfare if the Philippine Congress refuses the MILF demands. [Some pacifists will surrender to MILF threats, though.]

    Then, there is the bullying by Esperon talking to Pinol :

    “’Pag na-TRO kami diyan, bahala na kayo sa sarili ninyo. We are not going to sacrifice the lives of the soldiers to defend you,” the vice-governor said quoting Esperon in one of his private conversations with the former Armed Forces’ chief of staff.

    • justice league on August 6, 2008 at 10:01 pm

    Dodong,

    So plainly put, the PLO and the MILF aren’t bad after all and the bad things about the MILF and the PLO is too much of hype. (at least in your eyes and probably the Americans)

    But how successful was this “deal” between the PLO and the Americans in diminishing the Hamas that you are equating it in that in turn the Americans dealing with the MILF will diminish the Abu Sayyaf?

    • supremo on August 6, 2008 at 10:14 pm

    There 2 things working against this MOA.

    1) The result of the previous 2 plebiscites
    2) GMA has this habit of backing out of commitments at the last minute.

    • justice league on August 6, 2008 at 10:23 pm

    Frombelow,

    I took a look at your list

    Setting aside the part on the Shiite Muslims; much of what you enumerated are independent countries and no longer exactly associated with just autonomy.

    So your idea on self-determination seems to be based on independence.

    If that should be the case; you might want to consider an alternate list that includes Texans and the rest of the people of the other 10 American states, Scots, Welsh, Northern Irish, the number of Native American tribes, Kashmiris, Basques, Acehnese, etc….

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