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Jun 20

Since Iraq, a hard place to be

In theory, a strict no ransom policy makes sense. However, it becomes untenable if the authorities lose the moral ascendancy to insist upon such a policy. That moral ascendancy is dependent upon the authorities:

1. Having a no-exceptions track record with regards to hostage-tacking;

2. Having a credible (though not necessarily perfect) record of rescuing hostages, which puts forward the strong possibility that the authorities have the skills and political will necessary to effect a rescue;

3. Having an acceptable batting average as far as the apprehension, trial, and conviction, of hostage-takers or, barring that, are credible in the cases in which hostage-takers end up liquidated by the authorities.

And all of the above requires, in turn, that the authorities have a certain amount of goodwill and legitimacy as far as the public is concerned, in case things go wrong and the hostages end up killed by the hostage-takers or the rescuers. Contrast the way Japan handled its citizens being held hostage in Iraq with the way our government handled the abduction of de la Cruz.

In the absence of these, the authorities are at a disadvantage in urging the families of hostages not to succumb to the desire to secure the liberty of their loved ones by all means necessary, including the payment of ransom.

Since the government caved in, in the case of Angelo de la Cruz in Iraq, scuttling its closeness to Washington in the process, the government abandoned item 1; it has a mixed record as far as items 2 and 3 are concerned, because its own shortcomings have been magnified by the harsh but understandable lack of enthusiasm on the part of its former close allies, to go that extra mile for a fickle Philippine government.

As its been unfolding, the story seems to be that the kidnapping of Ces Drilon and party was a case of officials running a kidnapping syndicate instead of primarily being another Abu Sayyaf kidnap-for-ransom event. The situation’s made murky by the way some of the people involved seem to change affiliations at the drop of the hat and how the credentials and even motives of those identified with the rescue are being challenged.

A lengthy text message in circulation is a case in point, and I put it forward not as an endorsement of any probative value it may have, but as an indication of what’s being talked about (and speculated upon):

I was at a luncheon mtg w Ed Espiritu. He is an unimpeachable source re Ces Drilon kidnap. He is family, brother of mom of ces. He can’t believe d gall of Loren daw. She got into d picture only after family of Ces paid 5M. That’s when first cameraman was released. They had to pay some more for d release of the Ces and Jimmy. Ces felt she had no choice but to go along w Loren’s script. Loren even directed plane to taxi more to change position so they would be facing camera when dey disembark & she told Ces that she has to emerge from plane first and dat Ces should follow only after 10 mins. And now Loren and Ed Angara want Ces to seek an audience w GMA. Ces knows she’s being used but at d time of her release she felt she had no choice. By d way d family also thinks dat d mayor being held now is guilty. He & Loren were also d ones who negotiated w kidnappers of Arlene de la Cruz w same MO.

(update, Saturday: see Of Political Poison Texts and Criminal Aliases for details on this SMS message, the aspersions of which Edgardo Espiritu publicly denies; though Patricio Mangubat thinks Legarda’s not quite off the hook)

What we do know is headlined as follows: Dinampo: Guide betrayed us, as well as TV reporter’s family paid P5M but mayor kept P3M–officials and Puno: Proof indicates Isnaji masterminded kidnapping. Note the assertions of the government, what the text message going around says, and this report in MindaNews: Dinampo: no basis to charge Mayor Isnaji for kidnapping; says Biyaw “should be debriefed, too”. Curiouser and curiouser.

This is still very far from the allegations that Legarda was in cahoots with local officials: and I don’t suppose the government would put the squeeze on those officials if it would imperil Legarda.

But it is interesting that the latest official revelations zero in on the culpability of local officials, when the government started beating the war drums for a military offensive.

My own suspicions was that the kidnapping involved officialdom in one way or another, most especially considering the Hawks in the present administration who would be pleased for tensions to escalate in the South.

The manner in which the government, normally eager to downplay bad news until it can be properly managed, jumped the gun and neutralized the media embargo on the kidnapping, made me wonder if it wasn’t a trap sprung on Drilon to put the fear of the Abu on any journalist inclined to sniff around Moro areas. When it began to leak out that some sort of official participation in the kidnapping was a possibility serious enough to consider (and serious enough to scuttle the warmongering outcome some might have desired), I got even more nervous, and seriously contemplated the possibility that a solution held in reserve might be, to simply liquidate the hostages and blame it on the hostage-takers or as part of “collateral damage,” which would spook journalists even more. But then again, being an army brat, the decent part of the armed forces wouldn’t have knowingly permitted Drilon to be killed.

But then my assumption that there’s a War Party in the government, and my further assumption that the AFP, as an institution, doesn’t think that that way, and if we assume, further, that there remains a reservoir of professionalism within the armed forces, then they were probably aware of this -see Threats from Abu Sayyaf wane: CTC report – ahead of the public. Which means even those tasked with mounting an offensive would have been hard-pressed to pursue a Ghost Army.

This may explain these two interesting responses from two services that would be at the forefront of any offensive: see Marine chief uneasy with AFP’s all-out-war vs bandits and No need to boost air power in Mindanao, says PAF.

In the first place, our officers know that if the mission is to identify, and neutralize, bandit groups, that calls for different tactics than would be required for a traditional land, sea, and air offensive over something larger like a pseudo army of rebels. The martial traditions of the region’s inhabitants would dictate even those unaffiliated with the bandits to mobilize against the government out of an instinctive religious and tribal solidarity. This would only increase the logistical and other problems of the military.

notes of marichu c. lambino also points to another kind of infighting that may be taking place, tied to a long-standing debate (and confusion) on the Ramos-era (I believe) policy that the Philippine National Police should be in charge of counter-insurgency and the skepticism of the armed forces over the practicality of such a division of labor:

What has escaped unnoticed up to now was: this was the debut, on the national stage, of the Philippine National Police as busters of the Abu Sayyaf and jungle bandits (if those were the real perpetrators). Of course, they haven’t busted the kidnapping band but the leads gathered are a good start. If memory serves right, for more than a decade and up until the kidnapping of Fr. Giancarlo Bossi, it was the Marines (and other AFP units) under those brigadier generals, that’ve tried to catch the Abu Sayyaf, rescue hostages and engage the kidnappers and bandits, at great, great cost: in terms of fatalities, beheadings, indiscriminate bombings, wars, military operations, refugees, resources, money hundreds of millions, escaped bandits laughing, aggravation, wasted time, etc. We suffered the AFP military generals for decades.

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(Saturday update: see Uniffors on why the PNP hasn’t fully taken over counter-insurgency operations)

But there are good reasons to believe that a faction within the administration thinks letting loose the dogs of war would be convenient and satisfying, politically. Which is why I don’t think it would be wrong to consider that the recent revelations concerning who actually abducted Drilon, ought to be viewed from the perspective of competing factions within the administration. One thing that never changes in government (any government) is that there will always be turf wars and factional divisions within any administration.

Consider the possibility of the following taking place behind the scenes.

One faction would love to use the incident to drum up support for military action; another, would prefer not to rock the boat at this time, as it will have repercussions not just domestically, but regionally: a Malaysian government on the verge of losing power, will not put time or energy into helping keep the MILF in check, for example, and Indonesia has its own problems and the USA is in the closing months of a lame duck administration. Just consider the financial drain combined military operations represents, and who on earth could finance it. Our government? But it’s busy fending off the effects of the oil and rice price increases.

The President, like any president, derives a great deal of her political effectiveness from playing off one faction against the other, and seeing which turf to protect and which to permit others to encroach upon. This applies to domestic politics as it does to international relations.

The President could, conceivably, be gearing up to go to Washington to try to mend fences by offering to launch an offensive in Mindanao, so long as Uncle Sam foots the bill: Republicans eager to open up a new front to keep the War on Terror on center stage might consider it. If the President could then be assured of a credit line from Washington to finance operations in Mindanao, then the Hawks could get what they want. But if not, she cannot afford to fritter away resources pursuing an offensive that would then make her already tenuous budgetary situation even worse. Australia (see Aust pledges support for offensive against Abu Sayyaf) for example, could serve as a conduit for covert American financing or even chip in, but until the President can iron things out in Washington, it would be better to de-escalate things, for now, at least.

There is also a cultural dimension here independent of ideology, which is, the culture of banditry in the hinterlands (a geographical thing, wherever there are mountain ranges to shelter bandit groups), and a more specific one among some Moro societies, that harks back to the centuries of slave-raiding expeditions by Moro pirates. As the Inquirer editorial (which basically said that Abu link may be better described as “Abu Sayyaf, Teen Edition”) pointed out today,

Flashback to last week: When the news of the Drilon kidnapping spread, it was reported that many young people in parts of Sulu were lining up to join the Abu Sayyaf. The common reason: They wanted to share in the bounty of the expected ransom.

As it stands, the questions arising from the immediate aftermath of the kidnapping -the apprehension of of the mayor-intermediary and his son and their being whisked off to Manila, as reported by Ding G. Gagelonia (his coverage of the whole thing deserves an award)- raised by observers like The Write Stuff, the suspicions expressed by Patricio Mangubat, the criticisms made by Nick in FilipinoVoices.com, and even the conspiracy theories summed up by whatsikat.com, are all coming to a confusing head. This is not being helped by media throwing caution to the winds the moment the hostage taking drama seemed about to end. As khanterbury tales puts it, it’s a media feast now, much breathless reportage but little along the lines of figuring out if government’s lying (or not, and why, in either case), though she does point to this commentary in the Philippine Human Rights Reporting Project.

The Moro view is put forward by Julkipwi Wadi, of the UP Institute of Islamic Studies, and written shortly before the release of the hostages. It raises several issues (which I’ve placed in bold) to consider:

It’s sad

by JULKIPLI WADI, UP institute of Islamic Studies

The kidnapping of Ces Drilon and other crew of ABS-CBN including Prof. Octavio Dinampo of Mindanao State University-Sulu underscores the worsening uncertainty Muslim Mindanao particularly the Sulu Province has become these past few years. Despite government’s pontification to bring peace and development into the area while brandishing America’s aid and military assistance notwithstanding the U.S. military presence in the Sulu Archipelago, all these prove inadequate if not useless to eradicate social disenchantment and restlessness of the people as shown in the continuing presence of armed resistance including the persistence of radical group like Abu Sayyaf how unconventional they may have become.

With the kidnapping of Ces et al, it is clear what the government has simply addressed these past years were simply the surface and other peripheral issues of the Mindanao conflict — not core, the root cause of the problem, which is primarily the desire of the people to have their freedom, peace and justice. It proves once more that economic assistance including physical development poured into the area including availability of cellular phones to anyone, while they help some people including the entrenchment of political dynasties in Moro areas, can also be utilized by radical groups like the ASG to facilitate their mobility and movement including their communication in negotiating the fate of their kidnapped victims like Ces and her companions. By employing divide-and-rule tactics among Moro movements, the government has reaped what it sowed: it is severely constrained now whom to reach out in Sulu to serve as its partner of peace and development in the face of amoeba-like mushrooming of various radical groups in the area. Hence, the kidnapping of Ces and company raises the question whether it shows the continuing tenacity and resilience of the Abu Sayyaf or whether there is a policy blunder by the government or strategic failure in terms of tactics and intelligence by the Armed Forces of the Philippines in addressing the Mindanao conflict recently. Such uncertainty should have been properly understood by Philippine media.

Ironically, Ces Drilon should have been the last person to be victimized by alleged new group of Abu Sayyaf. As a friend, she has interviewed me of this subject several times in the past making her, in my view, one of the most informed and culturally sensitive TV journalists of the ABS-CBN as far as the Mindanao conflict including the Abu Sayyaf issue is concerned. While she might have the right judgment in trying to interview some people in the Abu Sayyaf in Maimbung in Sulu, despite the presence of local guide, having such judgment and guide how proper and reliable they may have been are not enough. They can hardly be relied upon since it is uncertainty that dominates the whole political and cultural make up the Sulu Province and other areas have become today. Even a native like me who was born and raised in Indanan does not just tread to unfamiliar territory of Sulu without proper coordination. The worsening uncertainty has long shocked me. Sulu today has never been like our days in the late ’70s and early ’80s.

Sadly however, the media has been short in understanding the Mindanao issue including the failure to treat objectively the unconventional politics, events and movements in southern Philippines . Their treatment of Muslim issue is generally devoid of proper context and cultural sensitivity. Regrettably, some media have fallen prey into one-sided rhetoric of the government and foreign interest. It’s sad news but true. It is time for the media to check themselves. –julkipli wadi

 

119 comments

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  1. KG

    bakit ba laging me maritime disater.

    tapos sa salvaging even bangladesh can refloat a sunken vessel faster than us

    CNN and bbc are faster and more reliable sources than pag asa pag dating sa weather reports.

    peo ang tanong ko bakit pinapayagan ng coast guard umalis kahit me bagyo? di lang isa o dalawa o talong beses na ito nagyari.

  2. KG

    God demmit

    kukulitin na naman si erpat ng senado anong gagawain sa sulpicio

    outlet ko na tong blog na to ah.

    bwisit senate investigation na naman, tapos maritime pa patay na.

  3. UP n student

    KG: On the latest ferry disaster. One of the first questions to answer is whether the Philippines follows the recommendations of the United Nations International Maritime Organization. If the ferry’s weight (and other capabilities) were within the IMO guidelines for being allowed to sail given the typhoon wind speed and heights of the waves, then Pinas government rules are defensible, and the question will have to turn to the Sulpicio Lines operational procedures (as to why the ferry capsized, and why it capsized very fast).

  4. Bencard

    “very nice, coming from a lawyer.” leytenean

    oh, so you are saying lawyers usually do not, or cannot, say anything nice? thanks for patronizing me. i don’t know about the others but you see, naka-katsamba din ako paminsan-minsan, di ba?

  5. leytenian

    bencard,

    oo na… siempre… take care and keep blogging. minsan ka lang dito

  6. Bencard

    kg, i assure you, if there’s anyone here who wouldn’t believe anything unless tested in the crucible of truth (at least, legal truth), that would be me. i think i have been consistent on that one. this is probably why, to me, the statement you quoted re muslim children fighting ( with lethal weapons) to survive doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.

  7. Bencard

    teka, leytenean, anong ibig mong sabihin ng “minsan ka lang dito”? i know you have been posting a lot, really a lot, lately but i’ve never heard of you, or from you, before.

  8. Bencard

    btw, do you know the meaning of sarcasm?

  9. hvrds

    For the families of those who were kidnapped it was simple. Save the lives of those who were held captive.

    For everyone else it is not that simple a problem.

    Ces Drilon made herself a high value target for these men. They obliged her by taking whatever they could get for her life.

    She apologized for her carelessness but her family and probably her employer had a simple choice. Her life for a price….

    To even try to make sense of who these guys are or their motivations is a waste of time.

    The area is an area where state power is almost non-existent. Power is defined by how much one can earn with his or their weaponry.

    Man reverting to his nature with high powerd weapons. The state has not even begun to address the root problems.

    In light of the present crisis in food and energy how will the state respond.

  10. mindanaoan

    “In short, fighting is a necessity for survival, for justice, for freedom and for a homeland.”

    what arrant nonsense. which of these necessities do the kidnappers lack? or for that matter, the moros lack?

  11. UP n student

    what fighting does is sustain the male macho. In the end, it becomes a feeling of self-worth, one may say. If you can’t respect me, then at least fear me because I have a gun.

  12. UP n student

    And if my walking around in the jungle rifle in hand does not strike fear in you, then I will remind you I am here with a bomb detonated or a kidnapping with the predictable media-attention. The money is a nice bennie, too.

  13. KG

    bencard,

    I know that and I am not sarcastic or patronizing when I say that when you see something stupid you point it out.

    looking at it, it sounds stupid and nonesensical but that was the position of the so called mindanao war victims group:

    “It is not surprising,” said Datu Hadji Alonto, convenor of the Mindanao War Victims group, explaining that Muslim children who fight in Mindanao have no other option.”

    so whe should quote only the sensical ones, pero pano kung sa ibang tao hindi ito nonesense .

    sa mga ibat ibang articles na nabasa ko not only those with sense are cited and quoted.

    but thank you and bencard and others for noticing.
    and sorry for going ballistic sometimes,but I appreciate being corrected.

    ==================================

    UPNS

    thanks and duly noted,nagyon nakikita ko na before investigating they try to sort it out first, kala ng mga tao kasi and I cant blame them investigate for air time.

  14. hvrds

    The more complex problem in the South.

    The American military forces are already garrisoned in the Southern Philippines.

    China will soon be drilling for oil in the Florida Straits just off the coast of Cuba in America’s own pond.

    Exxon Mobile has just signed a contract with the ROP to explore for oil in the South. What about the Spratly’s?

    Will Big Mike and GMA try to play the oil card between the PRC and the USA in exchange for getting rid of the problems in the South.

    Access to the diminishing reserves of conventional oil (most especially the easy to refine type) will be the seminal event that will drive political and economic policies of the world today.

    Ever since FDR told then Lord Halifax, (British Ambassador), the percentage of distribution of oil from the M.E. between the two countries in 1944 to the 1972 seminal event that made the dollar the de- facto international medium of exchange for international trade most essentially oil to the present day wherein the dollar hegemony is slowly starting to crumble as the oil producers have other clients to sell to and dollar based trade on all levels is going berserk.

    Financial markets are playing chicken with the dollar.

    Whatever claims we have over resources offshore within our national boundaries is probably going to be traded for whatever the government can get to forestall a major collapse. We pay for our imports with OFW earnings, foreign investments and the little export receipts that we earn. Rising oil and rising food prices will make our BOP problems the mother of all blowouts since our population is higher most especially in the urban areas. The country needs something more solid to leverage more borrowings.

    The U.S. consumes over 25% of oil in the world and has only 3% of the worlds proven reserves of conventional oil.

    Dollar colonization has competition today. The empire is under threat.

    The transcendental colonization of the Philippines under the dollar regime for over a hundred years continues.

    The Philippines has always been the forward firebase of the U.S. versus China.

    U.S., British and French integrated oil companies have made a foothold once again in occupied Mesopotamia. The country with the world’s second largest reserves of conventional oil.

    Mesopotamia is now heavily garrisoned by the U.S. military forces.

  15. The Ca t

    Leytenian

    “Lots of small business to start and maybe teach those young kidnappers on raising livestocks while providing a decent classroom.

    What kind of livestock? piggery in Muslim area. hahaha

    I think you are one idealistic person who has not really seen the world and have not tried doing business. Easier said than done.

    By the way, you are not blogging here. This is MLQ3’s blog. We are just commenters.

    Blogging in one’s blog is I think unforgivable especially if it is off topic.
    And too many “blogs” of this type is spamming a comment box.

  16. The Ca t

    I’ve travelled in Mindanao under the sponsorship of an organization funded by German Christian Churches to lecture on livelihood programs. The participants were obliged to attend before they’re given the interest-free loan for any livelihood project that they would like to engage in.

    The attendees could not even attend the whole seminar. All they were interested in was to qualify for the loan.

    How much more if you try to teach these unschooled young kindnappers who according to Arlyn dela Cruz (a kidnapping victim herself) could not read and write ?

    They are private armies of the politicians and what politicians would like their “soldiers” to be educated ?

    Keep them illiterate and they follow orders blindly.

    Between tending to livelihood projects which profitability and feasibility are not guaranteed and getting millions in less than a few days thru kidnapping, what would they choose?

  17. Bencard

    kg, you don’t have to apologize. you know my irony wasn’t meant for you. it was for the one who seem to have a very law opinion of lawyers and said so in my face (lol).

  18. leytenian

    The Cat,

    “I think you are one idealistic person who has not really seen the world and have not tried doing business. Easier said than done.”

    you are wrong about me again… doing business? seeing the world? I don’t need to prove that.

    Unforgivable? only the blog owner can decide that.

  19. PSImeon

    Ms. Drilon and company are indeed fortunate that they were freed right before the typhoon Frank disaster. Otherwise, they would have been held captive for awhile as authorities get busy helping the storm victims.

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