The “Great Fear”
April 24, 2008 by mlq3
Filed under Daily Dose
As chronicled by John Markoff in one essay in “The Rise and Fall of the French Revolution (Studies in European History from the Journal of Modern History)” (University of Chicago Press Journals)“ the Great Fear was paranoia in the rural areas, as a political crisis engulfed France in 1789. Rumors began to spread that the King, bandits, merchants, what have you, were going to swoop down on farmers to take their grain. The farmers formed militias; urban residents panicked. The government panicked.
We are experiencing our version of the Great Fear. A vicious cycle involving dramatic moves by the government, magnified by a media out of any really big stories (NBN-ZTE, Spratleys, etc. all fizzled out by Holy Week) and the combination of the two brought out panic combined with opportunism on the part of the public. Its early glimmerings were reported by Bong Austero in his March 24 column, Averting the impending rice shortage.
Yesterday, the Inquirer editorial, Hoarding, pointed to the Great Fear among local governments (For background, see: Davao will hoard rice, and Bumper rice harvest expected in Mindanao and Govs of provinces in Panay say rice enough for Visayas and Panay has enough rice to feed entire Visayas and
My Arab News column for the week is Fixing the Rice Problem Leaving Others Unattended. Since the modern presidency began, presidents have obsessed about rice: and cultivating rice, literally, has been an image eagerly cultivated by our presidents. See The Presidency as Image, in the PCIJ.
In my Arab News column, I pointed to inflation as one of the unattended problems, and to get a better view of that problem, and other related ones, see this analysis in Global Property Guide: Gloomy days ahead for Asia’s housing markets. Two charts from that analysis are particularly relevant:
The in-house economist of Global Property Guide, Prince Christian Cruz, was the guest on my show and he had some interesting things to say. The rising price of oil last year already put pressure on income, but was offset by the appreciation of the Peso. However, with the rise in rice prices, Filipino families have been subjected to a double whammy and thus, rising inflation. See also Gov’t to cut growth target for 2008 Rising food prices to curb GDP expansion.
Government data says the top three expenses of Filipinos are food, transport, and rent (more or less in that order, but food always being at the top, and ranging from 40% to more than 50% of income expenses), so a rise in oil and rice prices bloats the three, and from his perspective (focused on the property market) this will mean families have to consider moving to cheaper accommodations or defaulting on their housing loans; and that’s only from the point of view of the domestic economy. Add to this a downturn, economically, overseas, and the problems increase, as Filipinos overseas have to set aside purchasing homes (which fuels the construction industry) as their families at home have to spend more for food, transport, and rent…
The other week, I asked a worker how prices had been affected since Holy Week. A serving of vegetable viand went from ₱15 to ₱25, for meat dishes, ₱30 to ₱40, a cup of rice from ₱7 to ₱14.
People have had to adjust their grocery budgets, which up to now had been fairly stable for a few years. See Opinionated Banana:
If UN has an emergency food summit, well our Household also had our own emergency food summit. My mother, who’s in charge of the hardcore accounting and shopping shared that before a sack of sinandomeng rice would just cost at around 1,400-1500 pesos, but as soon as the crisis hit the fan, she ended up paying for 2,000++ pesos for a sack. With just a couple of male species and one diabetic in our household, we’re really not dependent on rice. But still, it calls for attention. We would experiment now on mixing food viands with mashed or baked potatoes, which I’m looking forward to, or develop our skills with cooking pasta. Yes, we’d still cook rice, but in smaller quantities now. It may result to healthy and positive effects, just as long as rice is still an option and not a form of deprivation. We’re all willing to adjust.
This leaves less money for the various service-oriented businesses that rely on people having disposable income. So the immediate problem, for now, is it’s not that there’s no rice to be had, but that purchasing rice is more expensive and won’t be going down in costs significantly in the long term. And we aren’t creating the kinds of stable jobs we need.
A backgrounder on where we were, prior to the Rice Problem hogging the headlines.
From Cielito Habito, PDI Talk.ppt and Michael Alba, economic briefing.ppt (see also philippine economic growth revised.pdf” I’ve snipped some slides. The white ones are from Alba, the colored ones, from Habito.
In 2006-2007, both were looking at the growth taking place in the country (being proclaimed as a new Golden Age by the administration, if you remember) and pointed to where it was really taking place, and where it wasn’t:
Alba had been pointing out that productive land was being lost to the booming property market, and what was worse was government wasn’t even properly keeping track of the development. Both he and Habito were also pointing to the dangers of lopsided growth, since the sectors growing weren’t labor-intensive (Habito pointed to the collapse in manufacturing-related jobs) and a fall in domestic investments, which would be magnified by a fall in foreign investments.
See also The Grand Deception by Perry Diaz. He calls the Palace to task for trumpeting its economic record, and how it brushed aside questions concerning the statistics and where the growth was taking place. He also zeroes in on smuggling as one issue that has hounded the administration -and which, I think, explains why public skepticism has hounded its every move in attending to the Rice Problem. In Thads Bentulan’s PPT, there’s a footnote (see the notation with the asterisk, below) where he raises the question of smuggling, because there’s a gap in the official statistics:
This actually came up during the Senate hearings before Holy Week, but the vacation prevented people from focusing on it. The discrepancy was between what the Philippines claimed was the value of its trade with China, and the values China itself declared. The Philippines claimed something like 8 billion dollars in trade while China said the value was 30 billion dollars. Immediately, during the hearing, some senators began asking if the discrepancy wasn’t a sign of smuggling. Although one senator later explained the discrepancy could be a case of arguing apples and oranges: the Philippine figure may be trade with the People’s Republic of China only, while the China figure may be “Greater China” including the PRC, Hong Kong, and Taiwan (and even the Binondo traders) but also revelatory of “technical smuggling.”
As it is, the rise in rice prices has led to demands for salaries to be raised, see Hefty wage hikes to spell economic troubles for RP–bank. Even the Inquirer editorial warned of the consequences of government allowing itself to be stampeded into raising wages: see Immediate need.
Which brings us to my column for today, which is Rice per minute. It discusses Thads Bentulan’s provocative An Analysis of Rice Prices in Three Countries: Hong Kong, Singapore, and the Philippines (as of April 20, 2008) . You can also download his Hyperwage Theory book.
People in business immediately dismissed Bentulan’s proposal: if it were adopted, one person texted me, “jobs will simply disappear.”
Bentulan says the minimum wage for a domestic helper in Hong Kong comes out to 18,637 Pesos per month. Ask yourself what work or position would pay a similar salary in the Philippines. Many people I encounter who are business owners complain that there are lots of jobs available -only, there are no Filipinos qualified to fill those jobs- but you have to wonder, the jobs remaining unfilled (mid-level managers, bookkeepers, etc.) are at salaries that makes it a competitive choice for a qualified person to seek employment overseas.
Moving on to the politics of it.
There is a novel by Carmen Guerrero Nakpil, which appeared in 1990 but has a strangely contemporary ring to its title: “The rice conspiracy: A novel”. What is interesting to me is how students from the UP School of Economics on my show last Tuesday asked if we really had a rice crisis or if it was a politically-manufactured scenario. They are not alone in being suspicious, see The Multiplication Table of The Jester-in-Exile from April 10:
My suspicion is this: the “rice crisis” is a fabrication, a scare tactic to draw attention away from the assaults on the squatter in Malacanang. With the public focused on this apparent rice crisis, the media will spend very little airtime on the motion for reconsideration that the Senate has filed with regard to Neri vs. Senate, on Jun Lozada and his plummetting visibility, on Atty. Harry Roque and the Quedancor issue, and the Magdalo officers’ conviction for coup d’etat, among other things.
Heck, I’m fairly certain that this rice crisis issue will be milked for what it’s worth, and then the public gets blindsided by yet another impeachment complaint decide to shield GMA.
This was tackled by Mon Casiple in Rice politics and governance:
Of course, it has been a policy of the government for sometime to import rice directly as the sole importer. In theory, it is supposed to sell the imported rice to small retailers directly. In practice, it is the cartels–with connivance from corrupt government officials–who divert these into their own control. A variation on this tactic is to substitute imported high-quality rice with local inferior rice.
The connivance–if not the direct hand–of government officials in rice smuggling from NFA warehouses is underscored by the dearth of direct rice smuggling from abroad. Somebody or somebody’s group is making a killing on the supposed “rice crisis†and the expected panic which drives prices still higher.
In the medium- and long-term, there really will be a rice crisis, as well as a general food crisis globally. At the same time, global rice prices will continue to rise as rice-producing countries increasingly curtail and secure the need of their own population. A lot of factors also contribute to this, such as high population growth, slow scientific breakthroughs, climate change, and higher per capita consumption.
However, in the Philippine case, a major factor is the short-sighted government policy definition of food security as consumer-oriented securing “food on the table.†This policy contradicts the common-sense notion of securing your staple food through sustainable production. The illogical policy of tolerating population growth when it outstrips resources complements this disastrous rice trader-friendly policy. Failure to complete the land reform program and prevent land conversion schemes of prime agricultural lands also contributed their share to the government’s failure in achieving real food security.
P43 billion is a drop in the bucket and a palliative when seen against the backdrop of governance failure by successive administrations in the rice and food sector. The GMA administration shares some eight years of it.
Rice, rice everywhere – but not enough to eat, says a news article. Ricky Carandang, in Why Rice is So Expensive, says an overlooked factor is manipulation of the Futures Market in foodstuffs:
As all this hot money goes out of the US, fund managers are looking for other places to put their money. And they’re going into commodities. They’ve seen how oil and precious metals have gone up and continue to go up. But with oil and gold hitting record highs, there’s a sense that the upside may be limited so they’ve focused on commodities that they believe could have a greater short term upside. And that means corn, wheat, soy, and rice.
Yes, there are real supply and demand factors driving up rice prices, but one must concede that a big chunk of the increases in the prices of oil, gold, and rice, are due to speculation on the international commodities markets.
As it is, in Cebu, at least, Rice prices start dropping. The decrease in prices being due to decisions by the traders, it seems, and not because of government’s intervention!
Frisco Malabanan, director of the Ginintuang Masaganang Ani (Golden Bountiful Harvest) Rice program, said that as of Tuesday, farm gate prices of wet palay in Nueva Ecija have been monitored at around P14 to P14.50 a kilo.
He said that commercially, this farmgate price should translate o about P30 a kilo of milled rice, lower than the current prices, which have been hovering around P32 to P34 a kilo.
Malabanan attributed the low farmgate prices of palay to the decision of traders to stop buying in the meantime.
“This may be a strategy for them to bring down prices of palay,†he said.
Some things on the chart above taken from The Rice Problem site: the wide disparity between the farmers’ price (light green) and what the wholesalers’ sell it for (orange); and the relatively small margins of the retailers (light blue).
The wholesalers, though, also need that wide margin because it represents the inefficient costs of distribution in our infrastructure-challenged country. But it also shows the opportunities for maximizing profits, for example, when NFA Rice is then mixed with commercial rice or repackaged entirely by wholesalers and retailers.
Back in April 9, Philippines Without Borders warned that since government, by its nature, is slow to act, by the time its policies actually start having an effect, it could screw up what should at least be a bonanza for our farmers:
Now, based on Business Mirror reports, its seems Malacanang is simply telling the private sector to import what is allowed under the minimum access volume (MAV)…. Crazy!
The fact is that the MAVs have been there all along and no one dared importing much lately simply because tariff is high (50%). Who would be encouraged to import rice that are already expensive in the world market and pay 50% on top of it, thus making the landed ones so expensive? If I’m the importer, I’ll wait for local prices to really move up the heavens before I even thought about availing of the MAVs. That’s what is happening now.
So the supposed policy pronouncement about “allowing the private sector to import rice†was a bogus one—a deception. Or probably it was real, only that government, as usual, simply backtracked, nay backslided. My goodness! Now, the private sector is saying they will only import rice at zero tariff, and given the government’s very slow decision making process, we might end up having those imported rice landing our shores when the farmers are already harvesting their palay. Some of them has actually started harvesting now. That will be tragedy.
Another matter.
We shouldn’t discount, too, as the effects of people being able to game the system, as smoke points out in Malthus got this one right:
You see, some well-off families have been gaming the system. When you reach a certain income bracket, people eat more often at restaurants than at home. For these people, the rice they buy is mostly for the house-help and the pets. Ironically, in the circles I know, these are also the largest purchasers of cheap rice. With most of these upper-income families employing at least two – up to six – house-help, they are able to buy more at those street side selling points.
First thing they do is they go quite a distance from where they actually live. When they find a selling point, the helpers line up with everyone else, only they are spaced about two-three people apart. Most of the time, they’re not noticed as strangers. But when they are, they just say they’re from so-and-so depressed community and that that place ran out of rice. They then give the sob story about having had to walk or travel far just to find rice. It’s clever, really. This story reinforces the notion that there is a shortage, and sets people a-twitter. In short order, they forget that their are strangers among them.
Once they get their quota of cheap rice, these helpers walk walk walk. Eventually, they all meet up, get in the re-conditioned van they use for going to the market and drive on home.
People would go to localities where NFA rice was being sold, even if they’re not from the area and not necessarily the target market of rice relief -the idea being a habit as old as the Japanese Occupation, which is to hoard when things are cheap and simply pull one over the authorities.
Roving rice-buyers aren’t just agents of the well-off. This is where having many family members -and idle ones- comes in handy: you can line up, anywhere, even far from home; and when supplies are limited per person, multiply the number of persons and you multiply the family’s total share. And the strategy is validated by events: even mentioning that the NFA may be forced to raise prices increases the determination of people to hoard now.
Politically, whether manufactured or not, the Rice Problem affords as many opportunities as it presents risks. See Manila’s Arroyo treads risky path with rice campaign. Amando Doronila takes a dim view, saying that Low credibility bodes ill for Arroyo riding out crisis. I’m not convinced the public mood will sour the way he thinks it will, or could. Definitely, as Mon Casiple says, in Malacañang 2010 hopes, the Palace will be sniffing around for opportunities -or trying to create them, as RG Cruz amplifies in an entry. Or, simply try to move fast to take advantage of any that may arise; more so, if it can claim credit for heading of an emergency. House to call Yap on P250-B plan setting the stage?
The Warrior Lawyer has a trilogy of entries, starting with The Politics of Rice then Rice Crisis Relegates the ZTE Broadband Scandal to the Background and On Corporate Rice Farming and Other Notes on the Rice Crisis . Which brings us to issues raised and some readings.
I. Government agricultural policy
Rice: a policy blind spot says Randy David. On the National Food Authority, see Soaring World Food Prices Exacerbate Challenges Across Asia…Especially in the Philippines in the Asia Foundation blog. See also The Bottom Seed: Notes on the Philippine Rice Crisis by Martin Perez.
See Bohol rice farmers ‘forced to eat camote’:
Catarata said that in planting rice, farmers need to spend for one hectare at least P18,745: P900 for the rice seeds, P6,000 for 14-14-14 fertilizer, P4,900 for urea, P30 for the transport of fertilizer and P500 for chemicals against pests, and P6,415 for labor.
Catarata said that if the P1,080 for thresher and blower and P1,800 for irrigation fee is added, the total rice production cost of P21,625 will be shouldered by the farmer, who is able to harvest only 60 sacks of palay worth P28,800.
Because the farmer has to share one-fourth of his harvest, equivalent to P7,200, to the landlord, he stands to get only P21,600 as gross income. After deducting the production cost, she said, farmers end up with a loss of P25.
But this situation can only be compounded by what Ellen Tordesillas says is a Looming fertilizer shortage.
See also P5M full subsidy for rice farmers and Herrera proposes full subsidy of rice seeds.
II. The World food situation
Earlier, Food crisis grows by Paul Krugman and then from Time.com: No Grain, Big Pain. From the Asia Sentinel, recently, Will Rice Depart from Asia’s Tables? The region’s most important food staple may be going into permanent decline.
See RP may not be able to secure more rice from East Asia.
See Wal-Mart’s Sam’s Club limits rice purchases.
III. Biofuels
See Let Them Eat Bio-fuels by Tony Abaya, and Biofuel not to blame for loss of rice lands — senator. He’s right, I think -but there’s the question of corn (and inefficiencies: it’s cheaper for hog raisers in Luzon to import corn from Thailand than to ship it in from Mindanao), which is being allocated for biofuel production.
The Arab News editorial, International Problem, says European farm subsidies have been very successful and advocates some sort of international body to manage subsidies for agriculture on a global scale:
Biofuels are not the root cause of the price hikes; they and the high price of oil are simply the straw that broke the camel’s back. The real villain is the phasing out of subsidies in so many parts of the world at the behest of the IMF and the World Bank. More land has been taken out of food production as a result than any shift to biofuels. It has hit poorer countries particularly hard because they are the ones that have most needed IMF and World Bank support. Without subsidies, farmers in countries such as Ghana or Gabon — West Africa has been particularly affected — could not compete against cheap imports from the big producers, and gave up. But no one realized a crisis was brewing because cheap food imports continued to arrive. It is only now, with prices rocketing, that poorer countries find they do not have enough local producers to fall back on.
Then again, we can focus on growing meat without having to grow animals -see Tastes Like Chicken in Slate.
IV. Population
See Juan Mercado’s look at population from a regional perspective in 2010 dividend. And Manuel Buencamino’s Earth Day blues. Blogger smoke is also in Malthusian mode in C-rice-is.
And finally, a brief survey of the blogosphere:
April 9: see: The Left Click, Arbet Loggins @ Multiply, Life As I Know It and The Unlawyer. A particularly interesting look back at previous rice problems in A Simple Life:
In the slums of Iloilo City, circa middle of 1970s, back when the NFA (National Food Authority) was still known as the NGA (National Grains Authority), “NGA†was synonymous to an inferior variety of rice – dark-grained, 50% broken, and had a chemical-like smell.
Therefore, I am surprised that unscrupulous traders nowadays can repack NFA rice, which retails at P18.25 per kilo, and pass it off as commercial rice, now selling at up to P34 per kilo as of posting time.
As a child, I remember Nanay occasionally taking home with her a brown paper bag containing a ganta (about two and a half kilos) of NGA rice. Those were hard times. Those were the times when Ferdinand Marcos rationed rice to just a few kilos per family.
A few months into the oil-rice crisis of the 1970s, the NGA resorted to rationing rice mixed with corn grits. Although the yellow corn grits-white rice grain mixture looked good, either cooked or uncooked, swallowing it is another matter. The discriminating Ilonggo palate just does not have the tolerance for corn as the staple. We may eat corn during snacks – on the cob, steamed or broiled, or as popcorn, but not when cooked as rice.
I did not remember exactly how long the corn-rice blend lasted in Iloilo, but I can still recall that the Ilonggos did not enthusiastically receive it. We survived and outlasted the rice crisis by subsisting on “binlod†(Tagalog: binlid) – 90 to 100% broken rice grains. Normally, binlod should be chicken feed, but undoubtedly, it fells better on the palate than corn-rice. Binlod is best eaten as “lugaw†or porridge. Sometimes, Nanay would be lucky to obtain some “laonâ€, which was only slightly better than NGA rice, and we would feel blessed.
Yes, we survived the rice crisis then and we can survive it now.
April 10: see Every man is guilty of the good he did not do…Voltaire, Poolah, Daily Musings, mackybaka! , www.CCLozano.com and Prospect Avenue:
My mom’s having a hard time ordering rice right now. She said the price of rice has risen twice over the week. She’s called all her friends and our relatives. One is selling a sack for 1,500 pesos, our aunt (who owns a stall in a public market) is selling hers for 1,800 pesos. Rumor says that a sack would cost 3,000 pesos in a few week’s time.
I don’t think there is a rice shortage at the moment. People are just getting greedy and hoarding the sacks out of greed and paranoia. It’s mass psychology at work. The rice crisis is a self-fulfilling prophecy that is slowly coming true.
Mom’s thinking of sending our workers out to buy NFA rice. It’s cheaper (18 pesos per kilo versus 35 pesos selling in the market). But you have to line up pretty early in the morning (around 5am) to buy the rice (shop closes at 10am). Each buyer can only buy up to two kilos of rice. There are cops (or soldiers) standing guard, making sure that everyone gets a fair share of the NFA rice.
April 11: see Splice and Dice:
That is the part where a morally bankrupt regime purports to be the moral buttress of the nation. That is the part where a Garcified leadership pretends to wrestle with the liars, cheaters and thieves in this nation when that leadership has nobody else to wrestle other than themselves. That, too, is the part where a gloriafied regime sees everything else as investments, owing largely for its economic eye, while failing to understand the basic difference between what is legal and what is just.
I’ve always believed that what is legal does not necessarily equate with what is just. While we may have laws, and we do have laws, there remains the sweeping thought and feeling that we lack justice. Invoking an executive privilege may be legal, but does it bequeath us any justice? Well beyond all that there is to be truly disappointed about, sanctifying that executive privilege, one which has truly become a privilege in the strictest sense of the word, by the prostitutes of the law corrodes the fists of justice. It’s a case where a distorted defense of a privilege which the constitution does not even explicitly provide tramples upon the written forces of truth and transparency, the gravity of which pins us back to a crisis worse than one plaguing our rice supplies.
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Jaydee on Thu, 24th Apr 2008 4:17 pm
The rice crisis is more imagined than real and that observation will be valid for a few more months. But with the international commodity speculators getting into the game, the price of rice is now being sold in excess of $1,000/MT. With tariff, VAT, freight and other expenses, the landed price should go beyond P68/kilo. If the NFA will still sell it for P18/kg, that means that it will be subsidizing the people at P50/kg. Importing 1 million tons will mean a loss of P5 B in losses for a few months this year alone.
If we will need to import more by next year, the prices can be expected to increase further and that may be when the trouble will start for us. We need to be able to resolve this problem by doubling our harvests starting this year.
hvrds on Thu, 24th Apr 2008 4:24 pm
Why men like George Soros, Jim Rogers, Marc Rich and Joey Salceda (local ecology only) play an important part in the global economic ecology. Just like in nature these men spend their lives looking for edges or advantages in the equity, fixed income, currency and commodity markets on the planet. These predators are a necessary part of the ecology. They are responsible for culling of the weak economies. Everyone thought that by stocking up of currency reserves you would avoid foreign exchange blowouts. But when the major reserve curency devalues you try to recoup by diversifying into other markets that will hold its value.
Soros ever the joker once suggested that it would be better for the GCC countries to make their long term contracts with the international integrated oil economies and soverign states public to aid in pricing information.
What most everyone forgot was that fact that currencies are simply derivatives of value or claims of value. Dollars today are priced in oil. Pesos are also priced in oil and rice. These commodites have strategic value in ones purchasing power.
Price equilibrium scientists construct their simulations (mathematical models) on perfect conditions with a few stress points of variables thrown in. It would be impossible for them to monitor every butterfly flapping their wings.
In reality it would be impossible for my favorite magician in the BSP to monitor India’s, Thailand’s and Vietnam’s economic fundamentals or the GCC economies from whom we get our oil. More so the humoungous U.S. economy that sets up the short term cost of money for all countries that use the dollar as a reserve currency in their domestic markets. Some countries practice a national policy.
Guess which ones do. The countries I mentioned above are the very countries from whom we import out strategic needs for rice and oil.
The main reason for the BSP existence is price stability. Since 1994 we have been importing the basic staple.
For a country that has been a net importer of capital and since WTO a net importer of food and oil that is a major failure of surveilance.
What would happen if a major oil terminal in Saudi Arabia was hit by Usama and took just 5M barrels of oil out of the supply equation? That on top of the problem that all their imports from Europe is costing them almost twice what it used to cost. From $.80 to Euro 1 to almost $1.60 to Euro 1.
Demand requires 80 + million Present capacities are about 2M barrels above that demand. Then you have the added equation of qualties of crude and refinery capacity.
Salceda even has an inside track on the financial markets in the Philippines.
Prior to joing the government, Hank Paulson was required to divest his holdings and place the proceeds in a blind trust. He got an exemption in the capital gains tax which is heavy in the U.S. as part of his signing on to his public service position.
That would be a little complicated for guys in the Philippines to grasp.
From the view of the fiancial markets the world is divided into frontier markets, emerging markets and mature markets. Frontier markets are those wherein an exchange economy is still in its embryo stage and headed into an emerging market. Very raw, primitive and simple division of labor.
Equilibrium scientists do not look at markets in this manner. They have a simple one size fits all perspective.
The Phils. is between a frontier market and an emerging one. Go dwon to parts of the ARRM to see what a frontier market is like. Or some of the urban poor areas in the country.
manuelbuencamino on Thu, 24th Apr 2008 4:50 pm
This is what the rep of a global bank told me over breakfast yesterday:
“Let me brief you on the situation in your country,” he said.
“Your president created the crisis for political reasons She caused the global price of rice to go up when she telegraphed how much rice she was going to buy.. Now with high oil prices driving up the price of everything she will have the problem of controlling inflation. Add to that the fact that the importation will drain your reserves and investors are leaving your financial markets, my bank thinks the peso will go down to 43 or 44 by the third quarter. However, we still believe that the peso will settle at 39.50 or so by the end of the year.”
I just nodded my head, just like I do when I’m with my tarot card reader. Sometimes they’re right. Besides the breakfast he bought me was delicious.
cvj on Thu, 24th Apr 2008 6:42 pm
It’s good that more and more people are becoming aware of the overstatement of GDP. Whether it’s in communist USSR or capitalist USA (in the case of Enron for example), window dressing is a perilous exercise. Smoke and mirrors has a limited shelf life.
fiball on Thu, 24th Apr 2008 6:43 pm
HEhehe, our recently bought sack of rice is labeled from South Korea!!!! The previous one was from Vietnam. Some people are really laughing their way to the bank.
P.S. Joey Salceda is damn fugly. He’s got so much dinero he could at least run to Vicky Belo. And his teeth! Por dios. However did this guy become a Merril Lynch honcho or was it UBS Warburg?
George Soros is an asshole. Go Mahathir.
cvj on Thu, 24th Apr 2008 7:06 pm
BTW, regarding ‘hyperwage theory’, raising everyone’s salaries by ten times is equivalent to adding another zero to our currency with the same effect. I prefer the previous suggestion of drawing horns on the 200 peso bill.
jakcast on Thu, 24th Apr 2008 7:16 pm
RP equation:
democratic political system + market economy + sociocultural flaws + catholic church + geophysical bad luck = “sick man of asia”
ricelander on Thu, 24th Apr 2008 8:01 pm
hvrds,
you know, you’re overflowing. Build yourself a blog, will you, so we can pursue you there without encumbering somebody else’s thread.
Well, just in case you don’t know how, type “how to start a blog” on search box, the rest is easy.
Cheers.
tahn on Thu, 24th Apr 2008 9:10 pm
Just to do a follow up on ricelander’s comment, one great blogging service is i.ph. It’s free and the features are great. It is very easy to use. I am not an avid blogger so I am not too familiar with the how tos. But the site is easy to use
vic on Thu, 24th Apr 2008 9:25 pm
Sam’s Club rationing rice
Many stores in the U.S. are limiting bulk sales of some kinds of the grain as supply fears leap
Apr 24, 2008 04:30 AM Dana Flavelle
business reporter
The headline here shows a lone Filipino Soldier guarding a mountain pile of NFA rice:
http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/417731
UP n student on Thu, 24th Apr 2008 9:35 pm
It was said again recently of the American blacks (with the Obama pastor “God damn Amerikkkka!!! The US government witholds the cure for Aids”, and it is true everywhere. Peoples who do not trust their own government see conspiracies everywhere.
I suppose this “it is simple, really” speaks of a benign0 who trusted the government he has left and the government he is now in.
———–
That flunkie that manuelB talked to was probably just there for the breakfast too, what with him/her saying in the sama paragraph “… inflation, rising oil prices… moneys leaving the country” and peso at 39.50 at end of year.
nash on Thu, 24th Apr 2008 9:54 pm
…in the meantime, Intel is allegedly pulling out of the country…lured by Vietnam and China…
(Vietnam is doing something right….first, more than enough rice for them plus extra to sell to us…and now investment incentives….and they even speak not much english ha…so there goes GMA’s so called we is speaking english advantage….)
that’s another potential 3000 people without jobs who will be queueing for subsidised rice…
UP n student on Thu, 24th Apr 2008 10:00 pm
Bentulan’s hocus-pocus is : if all Filipina maids in Alabang are paid like a Filipina maid in Singapore, then the NCR-area economy will be like Singapore.
DuckVader on Thu, 24th Apr 2008 10:02 pm
jakcast :
RP equation:
democratic political system + market economy + sociocultural flaws + catholic church + geophysical bad luck = “sick man of asiaâ€
————-
So is your solution:
Dictatorial system + command economy + whatever your solution to “sociocultural flaws” (whatever that is) + getting out into the water and pushing the Philippines nearer China or Vietnam, or the oil and gas deposits of Indo and Malaysia?
UP n student on Thu, 24th Apr 2008 10:26 pm
I hazard to guess (without a shred of evidence) that if you take a thousand Filipino Buddhists and if you take a thousand Filipino Christians, that the Buddhists will be better-off in at least 5 metrics (e.g. education attained, family income, mental- and physical health, close-knit families, optimism about future).
——–
How is that, DuckV, for a solution to “sociocultural flaws”?
UP n student on Thu, 24th Apr 2008 10:32 pm
By the way, two to four dams will go a long way in solving the “geophysical bad luck”, and if these dams also produce electricity, even better. Damn, I’ll be happy if they name the first one the “Poor Man of Lubao” Dam.
UP n student on Thu, 24th Apr 2008 10:40 pm
And think the employment as a dam gets built, the facilitators happy as contracts get awarded; land-prices going up, a few hundred kilometer roads getting built… many winners (but a number of families losing as they get “bought out” of their home lands).
jakcast on Thu, 24th Apr 2008 11:42 pm
@ DuckVader
Not my solution. Just tried to summarize some of the points being discussed in this blog.
For mental exercise, maybe we could put some weighting.
jakcast on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 12:02 am
The geographic and physical bad luck will include RP being in the typhoon catch basin, earthquake belt, ring of fire, or whatever you call them, etc.
The country is very much exposed to natural disasters. No 1 in danger I think. Didn’t you notice, as soon as one region/area recovers, some calamity hits another area? These events affects our national planning and budget allocation.
I know we cannot change the country’s geographic and physical attributes. Or maybe, we can?
cvj on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 12:03 am
jakcast, in your equation, you overlooked Inequality.
jakcast on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 12:08 am
cvj, shouldn’t socio-cultural flaws take care of that?
UP n student on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 12:09 am
Notwithstanding the issue of Pinas-should-be-self-sufficienct in rice, the overwhelming issue (in my mind) is employment. GDP is less important than percent-gainful-employment. Even GINI is less important than percent-gainful-employment. If an extra hundred thousand Pinoys are gainfully-employed NOW, and another extra hundred-thou Pinoys gainfully employed by end-2008, life becomes more blissful in Pinas.
GMA has the lead because infrastructure is needed to support factories/employment, e.g. electricity/power, oil/fuel for transportation, water (potable for all; irrigation for farms), education. GMA has the lead because corruption-in-government is extra-ordinary high friction to overcome. “Patong” as well as “kotong” — stealing from each and every single household in Pinas. The “patongs”, I am sure after somebody gets a master’s degree for the research and a thesis, can be directly translated into jobs lost.
Having said that, businesses also have the lead in jobs-creation. Jobs-for-jobs’ sake is the government job (a patronage-job is a job). The drive for productivity is best met when the business grows (not when the employee-headcount gets reduced).
As for the unemployed, the underemployed, the high-school and college-youth, the soon-to-graduate, the employed who wish they are earning more — no one has reprieve from self-reliance and personal accountability.
DevilsAdvc8 on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 12:51 am
to the guy in the rectal video surgery: file your case and publicize the names of the perpetrators as much as you can. send letters to all medical agencies abroad. let’s see who among those involved will be hired overseas (because you know each of them has plans of going abroad)
i’ve been inside an OR (operating room) a few times, and that kind of behavior seen on that youtube video is normal, especially in public hospitals. you would not believe the violations being committed by OR staff when the patient is under sedation.
i imagine rich people would soon demand that their operations be monitored by a relative so they can be assured that no staff is taking pictures of their naked bodies and posting it for all the world to see.
legislation should be passed that all operations be videotaped for records purposes. anyone wants to file a case for malpractice, just subpoena the tapes. problem solved. let’s see medical staff misbehaved when they know they are being taped.
i’m sick with this event really. i say hang everyone involved in that operation. ostracized them to death.
PhilwoSpEditor on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 12:54 am
Had a few chats with people around me and I would wonder if the rice crisis is really out of paranoia or the truth. I’m even wondering if this was really a ploy by the government to drown ZTE and Lozada out of the Media.
Honestly, I’m still confounded by all of this, since we are very much capable of NOT needing to import rice and instead producing our own, not to mention, the surplus. Perhaps the most important thing we can do is actually start using the soil for planting potatoes or something. I don’t think there is a world wide panic for potatoes (correct me if I’m wrong)
Curiosity aside, I have something to add to the solutions on the micro-economic scale.
(Based on the entry under the population [NGA]) We really have to be creative now. I mean, we at least survived the food shortages of WWII and 1970 due to the use of creativity. Why can’t we do it now, instead of just importing rice. I don’t think owing 50 Billion is going to help in the long run, if we don’t focus on our food first rather than the economy.
@UPn
The Dams idea isn’t very effective. [Its a blank promise if it really provides power, unlike the 3 Gorges Dam in China.] Most of the Dams here (if not all), fall short of the promised or targeted power produced. Might as well stuff those funds in food production and job creation, instead of letting it get pocketed by DPWH (But that’s being ideal, honestly).
DevilsAdvc8 on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 12:56 am
and my aunt who’s a farmer says: what rice crisis? they keep scaring people, there really will be a shortage in no time.
this accelerates my prediction exponentially.
i’ll believe in a rice crisis when commercial rice starts disappearing. but until then, tokyo-tokyo still has unlimited rice, so again, what rice crisis?
nash on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 1:40 am
@philwospeditor
“Perhaps the most important thing we can do is actually start using the soil for planting potatoes or something.”
Potatoes need sub 20C temperatures for the tubers to grow. This is why they are only grown at altitude in a tropical country such as ours….lowland potatoes are available and maybe in the future, the yields of these lowland potatoes will be worth the effort of planting them..
jakcast on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 1:48 am
@ nash
Could potatoes grow in those un-irrigated lands meant for jethropa (biofuels)? At least people could consume patatas, just in case they run out of rice.
cvj on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 2:45 am
jakcast, as far as the prevalence of the elitist mindset, yes that can fall under ’socio-cultural’. however, inequality is also an objective economic and political condition.
leytenian on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 2:56 am
Our Leaders have no idea what business are we in. They are just going with economic flow instead of preparing ahead, ready for any economic flow.
our land can offer our own people and to the world:
Ex: Rice, Coconuts, Tropical Fruits, marble , tourism and so on…. which department is responsible?
Our Over population can offer:
1. Outsource jobs: why is apple only in China… why is microsoft always go for China… can we compete with labor force? What is the difference between Filipino and Chinese in terms of labor. None.. both countries remains cheap in terms of labor and Filipinos can speak better English. Whic department in charge of marketing our peopleto global corporation who needs jobs to be outsourced?
2. Overseas employment will provide overseas remittances
Production of Basic Commodities can provide revenue from profits and revenue from taxation. High Employment can provide revenue from individual taxation and overseas remittances…
Why is our current leaders and ministers in charge of all of these affairs cannot focus on their areas of employment. Why keep the job if the job cannot be done but then paid salaries out of people’s money?
Rice problem is our basic daily needs in terms of food therefore it only requires basic management from the Department of Agriculture… No alibi’s are acceptable especially when people are obviously getting hungry.
Easy said than done but our leaders are paid to get the job done therefore we expect them to know what they are doing…
BrianB on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 3:26 am
Everyone,
There is a rice shortage. if you look at the graph, the price of rice has been gradually going up for the past few years but what’s really curious is that since 2007, there is no let up in the increase. The problem, as anyone of you would realize quickly, is not the immediate future but the long term f the trend continues and no solution has been found for the shortage.
BrianB on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 3:27 am
It’s not as if there were recent major crop failures and droughts. If the problem truly stems from overpopulation, then we are fucked.
supremo on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 3:49 am
The solution to the rice crisis or shortage if there is really one, DON’T EAT RICE.
PhilwoSpEditor on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 3:59 am
@supremo
“The solution to the rice crisis or shortage if there is really one, DON’T EAT RICE.”
It’s like saying don’t eat pasta to an italian guy… Filipinos are used to rice, period. No use trying to substitute it with something else, because we can be quite stubborn at times.
@nash
“Potatoes need sub 20C temperatures for the tubers to grow. This is why they are only grown at altitude in a tropical country such as ours….lowland potatoes are available and maybe in the future, the yields of these lowland potatoes will be worth the effort of planting them..”
Well… Either potatoes or sweet potato. Maybe it will be worth it. If we can get them to go cheaper, it can alleviate the need for rice as a staple food. [Rice is almost irreplaceable to a Filipino Taste.] (Ideals at the very peak of it.)
supremo on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 4:17 am
PhilwoSpEditor,
‘It’s like saying don’t eat pasta to an italian guy… Filipinos are used to rice, period. No use trying to substitute it with something else, because we can be quite stubborn at times.’
There are 7 million Filipinos scattered outside of the Philippines. Do you think most of them still eat rice most of the time?
Asian rice sold in the US comes in 25 lb. bags. That’s 10 kilos of rice against the normal 50 kilo bag in the Philippines. Most of the Filipinos who come to my store only buys 2 bags at a time. It will be several weeks before you see them again. Those Filipinos must be substituting rice with something else. Most likely cake.
grd on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 4:34 am
incredible story… totoo ba eto o kuwentong barbero?
did your banker friend say who’s the president at the end of the year when the peso settles at 39.50 after going down to 43-44 by third quarter (when our reserves are drained and investors are gone)?
if it’s still gloria, then she’ll be taking all the credits again. that would be brilliant after causing the global price of rice to go up.
supremo on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 4:46 am
grd,
Investors will leave the Philippine financial markets when the US economy recovers. That will mostly likely happen next year.
Bencard on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 5:24 am
the price of rice in the u.s. has gone up by 70%. a 25 lbs. bag of good quality rice now costs over $20, or roughly 84 pesos per kilo in philippine setting. filipinos in pinas don’t know how better off they are, what with nfa rice that cost 18 pesos per kilo.
the problem is global, and blaming the gma government for the perceived “crisis” is like blaming it for the world price of oil. one factor considered here for the ballooning price of grain is the increased use of such agricultural products for production of non-fossil fuel, e.g. ethanol. we are now burning our food to drive our cars. oh well, if only we can ‘abolish’ the law of supply and demand (lol)
of course, overpopulation doesn’t help the situation.
personally, i think from our perspective here in america, this global economy is more of a curse than a blessing. we exported our jobs, technology, natural resources, expertise and knowhow, and all we got are cheap goods, inferior products, and third-world attitudes. we tried to spread our bounty and wealth by allowing even our consumer goods for domestic consumption to be produced abroad. now it’s hard to find anything in the market that is labeled “made in america”. on top of it, we are now a debtor country of china. we are now the ‘marketee’ instead of the marketer/producer. i miss the ‘old’ world order.
leytenian on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 5:30 am
supremo,
you must be in the US. you have to really apply RICE in Philippines not outside of Philippines. Yes, Rice remains the very basic food for the majority. The issue is Rice Inflation in the Philippines.It is a crisis. Rice Inflation in the US is not going to be a real big issue because per capita income remains superior compared to the rest of the world and secondly, US population eat grits, corn, wheat and others…
Yes I can eat with no rice for 6 months but I am concerned about my country. Are you?
d0d0ng on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 5:56 am
In essence, there is no rice shortage but available rice at retailers are expensive. The same is true in India where they have the stockpile of rice for export. Most traders in India refused to sell locally with depressed local pricing when international market price is high.
Philippines has enough supply of rice. NFA who has the country’s monopoly on internationational rice trading knew how much supply it has. In the provinces, the farmers have their stockpile of rice to last another harvest, with excess quantity sold to local traders at a price which is ridiculously low when compared with retailers selling price which is more than double the farmers price. The wholesaler pocketed the windfall income in the guise of procurement and distribution cost.
That means the Filipinos living in the urban areas who buy their rice are paying more. The cops who are guarding the NFA supply were there to ensure that buyers will not have more than usual quantity which will create artificial shortage instead.
The impending rice crisis generates more controversy than it actual supply because as Filipinos we cannot eat without it and the threat has directly affected our pocket. However, it is far from reality to think that people will rise against the government when the provinces and the farmers have their farm supplies.
nash on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 5:56 am
@supremo
true. i think it’s best if people eat what is locally produced. the lesser the air miles the better. i barely eat oriental rice mainly because it’s expensive. (the cost of bringing all that stuff abroad…only italy produces rice at large quantities in these parts but mainly for risotto).
you should adapt to your environment. an italian insisting on pasta in thailand is an idiot.
sometimes, I wonder why all these de lata (corn beef, sardinas etc…) have to be flown all the way to the UK for example. why do i want to pay £0.80 for Purefoods that is full of crap meat and preservatives when i can get cheaper and fresher options??…hay, the price of homesickness nga naman…. the philippines should be exporting better products like tuyo/bangus in oil, smoked talangka…etc…nakatulong pa sa ekonomiya…
d0d0ng on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 6:14 am
Bencard on, “filipinos in pinas don’t know how better off they are, what with nfa rice that cost 18 pesos per kilo.”
NFA rice from the US is a blend of broken rice which is good for “linugaw” and usually shipped by US for African nations to fight poverty . That is not the same quality of rice that is commercially sold. Besides Filipinos in America have no problem with price regardless if expensive.
leytenian on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 9:26 am
why it’s always been at the expense of the people? why are we tolerating majority of our leaders? where, when, and how do we start?
Let’s focus on Corruption. Corruption involves money. Money must be accounted for. How are we going to implement such change if we are only the people. The people is the government therefore it’s the Constitution. The Constitution summarizes the policy and procedure. Who is hiding that book? We should all study that book and find the missing link.
rego on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 10:05 am
Oh yes bencard. I was watching last week the Charlie Rose Talk Show in PBS and there was this Columbia University professor who was saying the same about the ethanol and teh food crisis. And he was saying that there one african nation who was able to deal with the crisis very well. Sorry there are so many thing in my head that I can remember the names.
Anyway what caught my attention was the action that wre doen by the president of that country. He simply used whatever money his government to issue something like a bond that can be used by the farmers to buy fertilizer
rego on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 10:07 am
Dodong, may problema pa rin ako sa rice dito. Yung dati naming binili sa Cosco na Jasmine rice ay hindi na available. Bibinili namain ano yung nasa shelf, kay alang ibang iba talaga ang lasa.
hvrds on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 10:26 am
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”
—Milton Friedman, A Monetary History of the United States 1867-1960 (1963)
Information at the speed of light and knowledge at the speed of thought. Understanding comes a little later and the speed of awakening is relative to subjective historical forces.
Vladimir Ilich Ulyanov (Lenin) once declared that food is the currency of all currencies.
Paul Volker the dogamtic hard currency advocate and a true believer in controlling money supply to fight or prevent inflation is coming back in vogue.
It is trully amazing to see the frenzy in the rise of inflationary expectations.
All traceable to one root cause. The tremendous increase in the supply of money worldwide and the hunt for higher yields.
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/rogoff39
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/rogoff40
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/rogoff41
Food budgets ratios as related to income levels in the U.S. range from 4% to 15%.
In the Philippines it is not the same. Point of fact the representative basket used by the government lists food as almost 50% of food budgets. It is only an imaginary basket based on an imaginary income level as incomes in the country have a broad spread.
So for many food costs eats up a lot if not most of incomes.
This is where the distorted population demographic plays an important role.
Government stats on the total labor force available is over 45+ million. (Elderly and those below 15 years of age are not included in the labor force.) Of that only 30+ million are the participating labor force. Half of that figure do not earn a wage or salary. And only half of that figure again have full time employment between the government and the private sector. Formal private sector employment is shrinking.
Government employment is one of the major safety nests employed by the state. (Nest not net)
So we have approximately 15M people employed full time, part time and seasonally between the government and the private sector. The other half are self employed and non-paid family workers. (Also mostly part time and seasonal)
The rest of the labor force for the most part do not contribute to the economy.
So large part of the participating labor force are not part of an exchange system based on monetary systems. They are also obviously affected by that part of the economy that is already monetary based and the problems of monetary systems will migrate to the informal economy.
How does this inflationary surge in basic food staples and energy products affect the income levels of the vast majority? The effects could be deadly…..Social instability will come from the informal sector. The unseen and the unheard from.
Clearing upland forests and turning trees into charcoal is a growth industry while the Philippines could become the organ transplant capital of the world after taking the title as the worlds biggest importer of rice grains.
The increasing slumification and choking air of urban areas continues with the rush to expand urban areas to build enclaves of residential communities to escape the slumification of the previous urban areas.
The subjective impartiality of many clearly traceable to agnosticism.
Too much mystical and superstition based religion and very little scientific thought defining the culture.
Anf for those that believe that science should become our master, remember the words of the Gita, ‘Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds.
The scientific and industrial applications of warfare in the hands of eschatological idiots or followers of the end of days (Neo-Malthusians)is the greatest threat the planet faces.
Bound by the doctrine of price equilibrium (quantitative analysis)based on supply and demand as the one and only true religion.
Did You Know? on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 12:36 pm
helow sir! pls add me na to your link list.. huhuhu
pls sir.. tagal na po site mo sa blog ko.. tnx so much sir
jude on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 5:50 pm
Yes, everyone has a theory on high food prices: Market Manipulation, Overpopulation, Bad Agricultural Policies and even blaming Biofuels.
The fact of the matter is that high energy and commodity prices play a central role in the high cost of food.
1. Fertilizers and chemicals have rocketed to all-time highs, and these are essential inputs to agricultural production. Oil prices have driven nitrogen fertilizer prices to stratospheric levels, while the commodities boom has made phosphatic fertilizers extremely expensive. Organic may be the way to go, but that’s a pipe-dream right now. All farmers know that, without fertilizers and chemicals, you won’t get a crop that’s worth shit. Besides, there aren’t that many people who’ll pay premium for organic food.
2. With the high cost of inputs, farmers are hard-pressed to finance their next crop. It isn’t easy for farmers to borrow money to buy inputs. And the bigger the amount spent for inputs, the bigger the risk in case of a bad crop. At this rate, only rich guys can farm.
3. High fuel prices make cultivation expensive, since farm machineries are fuel-driven. Carabaos may not run on oil, but they aren’t used that much anymore. Besides, how many carabaos have gone the way of the slaughterhouse?
4. High cost of energy makes post-harvest much more expensive. Drying and transporting crops to the market have become terribly expensive.
There are solutions, to be sure. And government has known these solutions for a long, long time. But government never acts until there’s a crisis. And we can be sure that government will only contrive stopgap solutions until, hopefully, the crisis goes away.
Bert on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 7:33 pm
“helow sir! pls add me na to your link list.. huhuhu
pls sir.. tagal na po site mo sa blog ko.. tnx so much sir”
Hi, Did You Know! Ano ba meron sa blog mo, bigay ka ng sample dito, baka mabili namin. Pag nabili namin, baka maawa sa’yo si sir.
Carl on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 8:37 pm
The Phils. will never attain self-sufficiency in rice. Period. Too much mouths to feed, not enough land. IRRI says that our rice yields are already double that of Thailand so the proposal to increase spending on agriculture does not convince me.
And yes Virginia, the rice shortage is not imagined. The era of cheap food is over. Call it “rice shortage” or whatnot, bottom line is that prices of food, not only rice, are and will continue to increase. And not it’s not the hoarders that’s causing the problem. The problem was there before they took advantage of the situation.
UP n student on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 9:04 pm
Side-topic to bring costs side by side with benefits (and jobs wait for those who know how to work with maple trees and poplars):
on Earth Day (last year 2007) Mayor Michael Bloomberg promised New Yorkers a million trees in 10 years. The cost of planting a single street tree in Manhattan? About $1,000.Estimated cost of the urban reforestation project is $600 million, annual maintenance not included. An early hurdle faced by New York? The city can’t hire trained arborists fast enough.
vic on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 9:10 pm
I might add, we too here have seen the price increase by $2 for a 10 kgs. bag and now cost an average of $15. But retailers, mostly Chinese Busissmen do not take advantage of the impending shortages, but some instead absorb the loss for the time being for the scare of losing the customers..competion is stiff for overall Oriental Groceries and rice is just a minor part of it..
The Ca t on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 9:33 pm
Really? who said so?
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/04/24/BUUR10AOLH.DTL
The Ca t on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 9:40 pm
Bencard,
Can’t believe that anti-GMA could blame GMA for the rice crisis.
Are they wearing colored glasses or they don’t read global news?
http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/25/news/food_crisis.ap/index.htm?cnn=yes
jakcast on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 9:41 pm
Some businessmen are making bets that the rice shortage and price spike will last beyond the June harvest. I heard DA Secretary Yap say that warehouse and storage facilities not anyway connected with rice milling & trading (e.g. hardware, lumber, etc.) are being used to hoard the food staple.
Better buy your construction materials now before there is a shortage in them too.
The Equalizer on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 9:44 pm
Folks,one practical advice:
“If I had to sum up my practical skills,I would use one word:SURVIVAL” George Soros
The Ca t on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 9:49 pm
So the global rice crisis is also an attempt of every government of countries where it is mostly felt to cover up for political issues ?
mlq3 on Fri, 25th Apr 2008 11:47 pm
cat, some americans think so.
http://counterpunch.com/quigley04212008.html
but of course that is from a particular left-oriented point of view.
in http://www.rgemonitor.com/index.php
you may find the links mentioned in its recent issue newsletter:
The freely available on rice being
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/economonitor/252507/
which points to several factors, at least two of which (biofuels and land use policies) are programs of the present government. the falling dollar is another factor, according to the report.
jakcast on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 12:03 am
“Think globally, act locally.”
Some of our planners lacked “glocal” planning.
The Ca t on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 4:46 am
i am referring to India, China and other Asian countries.
US’ problem was not about rice. it is about rising farm prices despite the subsidies.
d0d0ng on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 6:46 am
The Cat on, “Really? who said so?”
Unless you count yourself in California complaining about the price of rice even you can afford it.
d0d0ng on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 6:59 am
http://counterpunch.com/quigley04212008.html
thanks for link, manolo
Cat on, “Can’t believe that anti-GMA could blame GMA for the rice crisis.”
It is valid since she is the President, the Philippines has the premier rice institute, the country had been an exporting rice country until Senator Arroyo who became President had been turned into top importing rice country and she is economic doctorate who knew her country’s land are largely in agriculture, plus she used the recovered Marcos loot under Agrarian Reform fund to finance he 2004 elections. You won’t understand Agricultural neglect until the country is hit with rice problem together with other countries. If we are exporter, then you have different picture.
Bencard on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 7:07 am
the president is blamed for every ill that happens in the country, why not the price of rice? if a real tsunami hits the philippines, guess who’d be blamed?
d0d0ng on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 7:11 am
Bencard – real tsunami did not hit the Philippines and the President ran the country.
UP n student on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 7:32 am
dOdOng: I think what Ca t says is that GMA has nothing to do with the crisis brought about when Thailand, India, Vietnam others began limiting the volume of rice that they make available for export. What you can blame GMA for is (continuation of old practice of) neglecting of Pinas’ farm-to-market roads and irrigation. [But you can't blame in a vacuum. I wish someone does a masters degree thesis, I actually would like to know how much better Pinas will be now if the money for C5 or Clark-Baguio highways were instead put into irrigation or more farm-to-market roads.]
She is PROTECTIVE of the Philippine farmers — that 50% tariff on imported rice in place last year and the year before is a huge shield to protect the local farming industry. Of course, that tariff is like VAT. The 50% tariff means cheaper rice from USA, Thailand and others were not made available to Divisoria and Quiapo markets or to Tokyo-Tokyo and various restaurants.
And do not stop with blaming the Executive Department because it is still rampant — corruption (patong and kotong) in high-, mid- and low-levels of government.
d0d0ng on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 7:38 am
Here is the FEAR:
Commenting in the Philippine Daily Inquirer, Senator Loren Legarda warned: “Rice is an extremely sensitive political commodity. There is no question a surge in the staple’s price is bound to spur social unrest and political instability.†Already under siege over other scandals, Arroyo is desperately implementing stopgap measures to try to avert an eruption of popular anger.
leytenian on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 7:40 am
Bencard is trying to blame rice inflation to global crisis. Partly true but economic risk can be calculated, analyzed and predicted by experts. Our experts are our leaders. But they are not true experts. Their expertise is to think how to move funds from one account to another without getting caught.
Economic risk can be prevented. Rice Inflation should not even be a problem in our country. Another obvious failure by our current admin.
d0d0ng on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 7:48 am
UP on, “I think what Cat says is that GMA has nothing to do with the crisis brought by….”
It easy to blame it on global prices. If you are exporter like we used to be, the soaring price is a boon and your domestic rice price is not affected. The political decision to be importer instead of exporter, given we have huge tracts of lands in agricultural sector is by the President. Because of that political decision by the Economic Doctorate President, the Philippines is the largest world importer of rice today.
leytenian on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 7:48 am
The President cannot do all the jobs of calculating,analyzing and predicting risk. Department of Agriculture could have made solid plans long time ago. Our executives comprise of ministers in charge of their areas of expertise.Our Senators, Congressmen and Governors are in charge of their respective region and should have been able to assess availability of land for agriculture to balance supply with each own population demand. All of them are paid to do the job to coordinate with one another. Obviously… majority coordinates and meets for money. Therefore. we should focus on where is our money. Each of them must be accounted for.
leytenian on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 7:53 am
But a president must be able to lead among her team. Obviously, she doesn’t know what business are we in. Importer or exporter?
UP n student on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 7:55 am
leytenian: I don’t think there are enough accountants among our senators, congressmen, governors and ministers-of-this or minister-of-that.
Now, Manny Villar, by my book, may be the strongest of the Very-Interested-to-Succeed-GMA. Villar should have a stronger accounting background than, say, Ping Lacson.
d0d0ng on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 8:01 am
Leytenian – when corporate growth turn south, the CEO is fired. There is no ifs and buts because your sales department is slow or financial analyst is wrong in forecast. Besides the CEO has all the resources at her disposal.
d0d0ng on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 8:06 am
leytenian, “Obviously, she doesn’t know what business are we in. Importer or exporter?”
She does, remember she has doctorate in Economics. Being an importer is a low cost solution (less cost of importation vs. longterm investment on agrigultural infrastructure and farm support) if and only if the global prices are stable.
UP n student on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 8:09 am
One has to admit, benign0 will not seem to run out of material to use to support his thesis — cultural flaws of Filipinos. The Inquirer editorial titled HOARDING ends with:
leytenian on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 8:11 am
true, i agree but she has a doctorate degree and is the president. Risk can be calculated and predicted. She again fails to see our future. Or maybe she relies too much on the 7B dollar yearly overseas remittances as easy cash flow? An entitlement mentality just like my little brother who expect me to send money? oh well the dollar is falling and I cannot afford to send the same.. smiling. I told him to plant RICE… LOL.
The Ca t on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 8:15 am
SO she is also guilty of having rice crisis in India, in Haiti.
PAki exercise nga ang utak ninyo. Duh.
The Ca t on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 8:16 am
global CRISIS.
The Ca t on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 8:18 am
At kayo alam ninyo? Sus.
The Ca t on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 8:20 am
“Rice is an extremely sensitive political commodity. There is no question a surge in the staple’s price is bound to spur social unrest and political instability.
This has been warned by the United NAtions.
Huli ba kayo sa balita? Magbasa naman kayo ng ibang newspaper other than Inquirer.
leytenian on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 8:22 am
Global prices are not always stable even our jobs are not stable. Savings and other investment must be added to prevent risk. Very simple. it doesn’t take a genius or a doctorate degree to understand economic fluctuations and unsustainability.
In terms of calamities, an insurance will cure the risk. Insurance in economics is money reserved allocated for that purpose. Hospitals and medical professionals should be trained for such calamities.
Easy said than done…we do need revenue or money to finance all these. We are still poor because we spend it unwisely. Worst.. we don’t know where our government revenue goes.
The Ca t on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 8:25 am
Wow an economic technocrat. How so? Never mind, rice inflation? Say what?
leytenian on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 8:25 am
the Cat,
I will not see a thing if I don’t know. I do have my own opinion and knowledge but it took me 4 years to read. So many things to share so little time. My point, she is the President and we are paying her salary to do the job therefore we expect her to do her thing.
Try hiring an employee and see what would you do if she/he cannot perform the job. Keep her/him or fire?
d0d0ng on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 8:26 am
The President has her economic team as well as security team. She knows what is going on. Actually, we do have enough supply. I have families in the provinces, the rice supply is largely stable. There is just too much noise when the local prices spike fueled by anticipatory response to high global price and limited world supply combined with local hoarding.
As long as the government goes offensive on local distribution so the cheap NFA supply reach the intended consumers and go after hoarders and speculators, then the fear of social unrest can be averted.
The Ca t on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 8:26 am
Ano raw?
d0d0ng on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 8:30 am
The cat, “SO she is also guilty of having rice crisis in India, in Haiti.PAki exercise nga ang utak ninyo. Duh.”
That is your statement, not mine. So it speaks of your “utak”. Duh
d0d0ng on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 8:33 am
The Cat, “Ano raw?”
She speaks of government wastes. hehe.
Bye, I have to go.
leytenian on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 8:36 am
dodong,
LOL… hahaha..have to go too. Bye The cat. take care
UP n student on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 8:50 am
leytenian: On your little brother who asks money from you. Send what you can afford, and also send the message — be sure to tell him to earn it. If he is a student, then every grade C or higher gets X-dollars, with a 10% bonus for every A. If he is working-age, then tell him he gets zero from you if he makes below P36,000 a year; that he gets X-dollars if he makes P36K to P60K a year; that he gets X-plus-Y dollars if he makes over P60K a year (so the more he earns, the more he gets from you).
Bencard on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 9:12 am
a string of ph’s in economics from the best schools in the world would not empower anyone to guaranty continuing prosperity, or to know what will happen 3, 6, or 10 years down the road. if so, there would not be bull and bear markets in wall street. policies are made and pursued with a prayer that they would deliver the intended benefits to the economy.
the philippines, a copycat country by tradition, thought as early as the 50’s, that industrialization was the key to progress and prosperity. for many years up to now, land use has been re-directed in such a way that vast tracts of forest land (classified as alienable and disposable), and developed agricultural lands were converted for industrialization and commercial development as well as for residential uses. even some permanent timberlands did not escape re-classification and coversion. it’s kind of hard to admit that the number of filipino rice farmers, like catholic priests in america, is rapidly dwindling. the old farmers are not being replenished by young ones in sufficient quantities. most of the latter want to live in the cities and work for mandated minimum wages, or become ofw’s and risk abuse and maltreatment by foreign “masters” for a pittance.
in the context of the looming global food crisis, a re-emphasis on agriculture needs revisiting. government resources must be allocated in a manner that would encourage food production and distribution that could meet the needs of a burgeoning population.
KG on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 9:25 am
“In terms of calamities, an insurance will cure the risk. Insurance in economics is money reserved allocated for that purpose. Hospitals and medical professionals should be trained for such calamities”
Just a question or two, in social security services all you can get is a calamity loan,how can insurance cover these? I know in some credit card companies you are allowed an emergency credit line increase during such calamities,but still you got to pay.
How can hospitals help in calamities other than,helping those involved in accidents, and the like? But as you said; so little time to share;you might want to clarify if and when you can.
I was interested because I think you wanted to say something more pero nabitin lang.
KG on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 9:29 am
On real or imagined.
Not yet a sum of all fears scenario,but it is not at all imagined. As to the validity of my opinion;I won’t be the judge of that.
KG on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 9:38 am
Off topic, the next doomsday scenario is lack of power within the next few years.
Sure we face it when it comes and offer quick fix solutions when it happens.
Due to quick fix solutions and some other reason, most power plants did not even anticpate that their plants needs a cooling system, which they can get from the sea the sameway ships do it.
If we cannot do that with our power plants now, then why even consider going nuke,when it takes a hell lot of cooling and use of sea water.One more thing ,there is no way you can expedite nuke tech.
Same opinions on the dams raised by UPN and the otheres.
leytenian on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 10:10 am
UP n student,
“I don’t think there are enough accountants among our senators, congressmen, governors and ministers-of-this or minister-of-that.”
I agree but what ’s the use of our Commission on Audit. Obviously they audit their own.Might be that the commission’s intention is not to publish or transparent.The public still don’t know actual breakdown of expenses. Are we also wasting labor cost for this department?
Regarding sending money to little brother.It was just an example. It was not personal. My brother have not asked anything from me. He works like me and you. Thanks God.
magdiwang on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 11:54 am
mlq3, excellent post regarding the rice crisis. its well balanced in taking account all the different scenarios on the root cause of the problem.
my 2 cents, just recently the price per share of equities and commodities were determined by their inherent value calculated painstakingly by market analysts. in the last few years the fundamentals behind the value of such financial instruments have decoupled at least in the short term driven by greed of market speculators armed with billion dollar portfolios. The manipulation is through the increasing use of option, momentum, sentiment, market timing, and technical trading in wall street. This has greatly contributed in the volatility of the commodities market where grain prices can skyrocket with no real shortage.. i believe that this modern day gamblers should be regulated, so not to adversely affect poor nations like us.
Jaydee on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 12:15 pm
I don’t agree with the quoted statement below. As an international trader, we make it a point to know which clients will be in need of our products so we can start positioning ourselves in pursuit of a sales. In Philippine steel for instance, we always were on the lookout of National Steel’s blast furnace malfunctions so that we can offer more slabs. And in the event that we are the only supplier around, that means we need not bring the prices down that much.
=========
“Your president created the crisis for political reasons She caused the global price of rice to go up when she telegraphed how much rice she was going to buy.. Now with high oil prices driving up the price of everything she will have the problem of controlling inflation.”
leytenian on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 12:31 pm
KG,
nabitin nga… lol.
I was implying about other future risk that government might need to plan ahead. ( it was out of topic ) but anyway, i was talking about calamities that may happen such as typhoon or any of that nature that is out of people’s control. Bencard mentioned about tsunami’s hitting Philippines but he wasn’t sure who to blame.
Financial Reserve and planning must be in placed in our system. Hospitals should be ready with emergency planning to accomodate such risk. Reserve means insurance for the people. Of course we can blame it to Mother Nature but “mother nature” nowadays can also be predicted and people can be warned. This remains to be the duty of our leaders.
If we are prepared by addressing the issue ahead, we not only solve short term problems but of long term. This can eliminate costly expenses that will affect the overall financial aspect of our economy.
Yes, it is easy to blame our Rice Crisis to what is going on globally. It is also easy to blame Mother Nature to all natural disasters that is going to happen ( knock on wood). This type of “blame†does not require a President, 24 senators and over 200 congressmen.
leytenian on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 1:01 pm
“This type of “blame†does not require a President, 24 senators and over 200 congressmen.”
My point… if i may say…irresponsible leaders who are overpaid with people’s money.
cvj on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 1:29 pm
When it comes to rice, Gloria Arroyo’s mistake is at the level of fundamental, long-term strategic directions. Deciding to expose yourself to the markets is itself a conscious decision and not a ‘given’ so she is not just a victim, as her apologists would lead us to believe. She cannot weasel out by blaming the world commodity markets because it is precisely her neglect of food security that has allowed us to be at the losing end of that market.
We have to remember that FPJ, the candidate whom GMA cheated during the last Presidential elections had the right strategic priorities in terms of food security and protecting farmers.
http://www.bulatlat.com/news/3-45/3-45-karonnie.html
So this is not a simple case of a failure of governance in GMA’s part because she stole the Office from the very person who happened to have the right answers in terms of long term/strategic directions.
jakcast on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 2:28 pm
Assuming FPJ was elected president in 2004 (despite the ‘cheating’) we can’t be sure he would not have succumbed to entrenched interests considering the record of the politicans supporting him at that time: Maceda, Enrile, Angara, Sotto, etc., can we?
It will not take just strong character, but deliberate thinking and long study. Look at what happened to Erap? His ouster was was also his own making.
“…a prince should read histories, note the actions of great men and examine the causes of their victories and defeats, imitating those who have been renowned. ” Machiavelli
cvj on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 2:58 pm
Jakcast, yes we cannot be sure if FPJ would have carried out his explicit promise to make Food Security as his Number One priority. However, we should credit FPJ for having the right priorities compared to a supposed PhD in economics who turned out to be strategically wrong.
We also have to remember that the reason we cannot be sure whether FPJ would have carried out his promise is because someone cheated him out of the Presidency, and that someone, had the wrong priorities to boot. In his column for today, Randy David accurately described the social function of politics…
Being illegitimate, Gloria Arroyo did not have the right to take such a binding decision that would render our masa more vulnerable to hunger.
The problem is that the Elitists in our Society, with their sense of superiority over the masa, thought that they have the right answers so they thought nothing of cheating the latter out of their right to choose their leaders. And then, when they make a mistake, they choose to deflect blame to outside forces. Well, in the case of food security, it turns out that the Elitist’s choice was wrong and the Masa’s instincts were correct.
I would hope that the elitists take this as a lesson in humility but i’m not counting on it.
rego on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 3:00 pm
Again CVJ, grooowwwwwwww uuuuupppp!
Patay na si FPJ, hayaan mo ng manahimik yung tao. Ano naman nag mapapala natin kung meron mang strategic ek ek si FPJ eh patay na yung tao eh. Maniwala ka namang idea nga ni FPJ yun. Meron lang nag formulate para sa kanya. Hindi masosolve ang problema eto kahit mag bumangon pa si FPJ sa kanyang libingan.
cvj on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 3:23 pm
Rego, even if it was not his original idea, it is clear that FPJ had enough humility to listen to advice that would have benefited the masa. This is unlike Gloria Arroyo who fancied herself to be superior and as a result developed an illusion that she was ‘anointed’ to lead which justified the cheating.
Yes, patay na si FPJ, but it is not to the dead, but to the living (particularly the living elitists) that i’m addressing this message.
Bert on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 3:33 pm
No politics here, just factual observation of comments made in this thread, though I’m a bias observer.
The ‘anti’, where I belong, points responsibility for the rice crisis in the Philippines to the president of the Philippines for not being pro-active in averting such crisis. The ‘pro’ defends the president by sarcasm, pointing the blame to external factor, and that the president has nothing to do with it. The ‘neutral’ is trying to do a tricky balancing act but he has some points.
cvj on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 3:46 pm
Bert, my observation in these blogs is that whenever you have a ‘pro’ or ‘anti’ [aka Oppositionist], someone will always come along to take a third point of view, not necessarily neutral but more giving the impression that he/she is somehow ‘above’ both sides, aka a ‘Meta’-position. Being a Meta-positionist is another very Filipino trait, and is not necessarily a bad thing.
Bert on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 3:48 pm
“Hindi masosolve ang problema eto kahit mag bumangon pa si FPJ sa kanyang libingan.”
Crabs, crabs, crabs, crabs! talangka! hehehe.
rego on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 3:48 pm
O pulezzzzzz CVJ, tigilan ako, yung ginagamit mong argumento ay patay na po. napakadali mong sabihin may maganda sana ang buhay natin kung si FPJ ang naging president o kaya si Ninoy o kaya si Rizal o kaya nag patouly si ang term ni Erap. But what can we get we that kind of argument? Magatalo man tayo ng magtalo dito walang kahinatnan dahil hindi pwedeng mangyari ang gusto maging presidente. So I ll leave wallowing in your imaturity. Kung ayaw mong ituwid ang utak at pag-iisip mo, problema mo na yan !
cvj on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 4:01 pm
Rego, some people say that FPJ died because he lost the Presidency and that he would not have died if was not cheated from his office. Of course, no one will ever know. However, even if a President FPJ died as scheduled, he could have laid the ground work for food security which would have put us in a better position to handle the present crisis. Hello Garci prevented this from happening.
Also, don’t be confused as i am not discussing simple personalities (FPJ vs. Gloria), but the ideas embodied by these personalities (i.e. one democratic vs. one elitists). These contending ideas will be there long after FPJ, Arroyo, you and me are dead.
Bert on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 4:03 pm
Got your point, cvj.
The Ca t on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 4:26 pm
Ano raw means you’re talking nonsense or you have not said anything new.
Asking where the revenues of the government go can be asked by anybody.
Nothing substantial really.
The Ca t on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 5:08 pm
When all GMA haters see nothing but politics about this global crisis? And this is this blog all about, isn’t it?
Where commenters seem to be reading stale news. Wow, that quoted statement of Legarda isn’t even hers.
And the UN was not about talking the PHilippines. It is talking about HOnduras where a big platoon of military and police guards the government for fear of riot.
It is talking about the riot in the Haiti.
It is talking about the rallies in Indonesia.
While people in some countries showed violent reaction, the photos of Filipinos in MSNBC are showing patience in getting their small package of NFA rice.
This is what the GMA haters especially those advocating for revolution are desperate about.
The global news also explained why there is rice crisis. Australia converts its huge tracts of farm lands to other
more revenue generating products.
Several rice producing countries are suffering from drought or insufficient water for its farmlands due to global warming.
China has converted most of its farm lands to industrial estates.
No one would mention all these reasons here. Makakasira sa agenda nila.
US is not complaining much on rice prices because that is not the staple food of the big nation. HELLLOOOO.
Its concern is more on rising of food prices in general.
The human being who said that people in California does not mind the rising prices of rice should be reminded that
THE REASON why the stores particularly Costco, Walmart and probably Oriental stores are limiting the sale of rice per customer is because these people are buying more in anticipation for HIGHER PRICES in the future.
Otherwise, in our place, the stock of rice does not change. But prices of commodites do soar up. Most people do not notice because majority are using credit cards.
It is when you buy in cash that you will realize that your bread basket is shrinking.
DUH.
Bert on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 6:03 pm
Oh, indeed, the feline is very up-to-date with global news, she somehow overlooked the local events here where her beloved president is at the bottom of her people’s favor for exactly the same reason she (the feline) was attributing to global happenings.
jude on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 6:58 pm
It’s funny how some people are so one-track minded that they try to connect every crisis to the present administration. To be sure, the present administration repeats the same mistakes past administrations committed, especially with regard to agricultural policy.
Some people posting here even hyperbolize that Philippine agriculture has lately deteriorated so much that it has been reduced from a rice exporter to an importer.
The truth is that the Philippines was only a net exporter of rice for only a very brief moment in its history. And this happened during Martial Law, under President Marcos’ Masagana 99 program. Before and after that, we have never been self-sufficient in rice production. See this link: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20080426-132782/Marcos-Masagana-99-made-RP-rice-exporter-self-sufficient
What is a fact is that government knows only too well the solutions towards agricultural self-sufficiency. But all administrations only pay lip service to this because all administrations only want instant gratification. It takes too much hard work and political will to develop the countryside. And it’s always more politically expedient to cultivate the urban voters. Rural voters can always be intimidated or bought anyway.
And to the guy who tries to resurrect the ghost of FPJ, stop beating a dead horse. Given the dismal agricultural track record of all administrations, he wouldn’t have had a snowball’s chance in hell to have made any difference.
Bert on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 7:12 pm
“What is a fact is that government knows only too well the solutions towards agricultural self-sufficiency.”-jude
And gloria, in decades she’s in government, has solved the problem, that’s why we love her so much???
jakcast on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 7:14 pm
@ cvj, On elites:
We’ve discussed this before. In all societies, there will alway be elites: political elites, economic, sports, etc. Its part of a democratic society: not everybody, although theoretically everyone has a chance, could be the leader of the strata. Only the supposed best and the brightest. The term itself says so: the ‘elected.’
Take the case of Senator Lito Lapid. From supposedly masa base, he is now part of the political elite; an elected senator, one of only twenty four. Kung baga sa frequent flyer miles program, he is a gold member.
Senator Lapid may be the ’silent type’ in the parliamentary debates, but he has a constituency of the 10 million or so who elected him; and a national audience of almost ninety million Filipinos.
Now, its up to him to play his role: promote and protect the interests of what he believe got him elected.
grd on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 7:44 pm
supremo,
I’m not disputing that. infact, I agree partly with what I quoted (from MB) regarding the drop of the peso to 43-44 (it’s now 42) by the third quarter due to the high price of oil, inflation, the country’s draining reserves due to importation and investors pull-out (while you say this may happen next year).
what I find hard to believe is the part that says the peso will settle at 39.50 by the end of the year. that’s a few months away only. with the continuing rise in prices of oil and food in the global market, how will it be possible? due to ofw’s remittances? don’t you think it’s too unrealistic?
of course, the part that says gloria caused the global price of rice to go up is a total nonsense. if people can only separate politics out of this problem everybody is facing right now.
Bencard on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 7:50 pm
jude, i agree with you. thanks for putting cvj in his place. same with you rego for pointing out the absurdity of praising a dead man’s plan that was never tested and tried. anything to express his bitter hatred towards the president and the “elite”.
grd on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 7:53 pm
bert, it’s clear jude is not absolving the present admin based on his above statement as quoted.
leytenian on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 8:03 pm
The Ca t :
“Ano raw means you’re talking nonsense or you have not said anything new.
Asking where the revenues of the government go can be asked by anybody.
Nothing substantial really”
Corruption is a result. It is not the main cause. The main cause is non-transparency of financial transaction and direct accountability. In a more complicated sense of which you willprobably not understand anyway. It’sour banking system.
It is substantial, The Cat… ask your senator where did he spend the pork barrel, what project and why? Did his project enhance the lives of the people, Did it attract investors or create employment? anyway… you should speak for yourself. You cannot be in this blog if you can only attack others. You are not on my league…
leytenian on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 8:17 pm
CVG,
“even if a President FPJ died as scheduled, he could have laid the ground work for food security which would have put us in a better position to handle the present crisis. Hello Garci prevented this from happening.”
Agree..very good point.
Rego: understand the part ” ground work”.
Bert on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 8:36 pm
“And to the guy who tries to resurrect the ghost of FPJ, stop beating a dead horse. Given the dismal agricultural track record of all administrations, he wouldn’t have had a snowball’s chance in hell to have made any difference.-jude
Quite a murky reading of the crystal ball.
leytenian on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 8:49 pm
Lito lapid cannot understand basic Financial Data. He will not be able to. His experience is being an actor and that’s all there is to it. When he was an actor, he has no experience of hiring over 1000 people. He is only appropriate to his own region but may not be able to construct a solid foundation for growth because his experience does not fit to the actual job description.
So let’s look on Gloria, she has the educational background but lacking experience in terms of managing a poor economy. She also doesn’t have the personality type to direct and lead her team. First thing she should have done is to open our economy to the public . That is to review the data of our country’s financial statement. She could have initiated the change 6 years ago.
We are still poor. Poor for common people is lack of money. lack of money in economic sense can be: highly leverage because of debt financing from previous administrations, shortage of taxation revenue because of high percentage of unemployment, elites are making money within but spend it outside, few direct foreign investment and lastly… we do or we might have money but the clarity of financial management is not her area of expertise.
grd on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 8:58 pm
but fpg could have done a better job.
Bencard on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 9:09 pm
grd, your “could have” says it all. eddie gil, or ed villanueva, could also have done a better job, right?
KG on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 9:10 pm
Leytenian,
Thanks for the clarification.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Jude,
About your link where congressman escudero said during his watch masagana 99 was able to succeed because of credit support (and supervision).Maybe the reason behind why it lasted only from 1977-78(was he agri minister or Arturo Tanco????) can be summarized by this paragraph found in this link:
http://www.country-studies.com/philippines/agricultural-production-and-government-policy.html
“In 1975 more than 500,000 farmers participated in the Masagana 99 program. By 1985, however, the program had expired because of high arrearage and the tight monetary policy instituted as part of an agreement with the IMF. The program was revived in the Aquino administration’s Medium-Term Development Plan, 1987-92. According to a government report, however, as of 1988 the program had not yet reached most of the intended beneficiaries. Government efforts were also underway to rehabilitate rural banks, the majority of which had experienced severe difficulties during the economic crisis of the early 1980s and the subsequent monetary squeeze. ”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
CathCath,
As for The nothing new stuff,Cathcath as a former academician, you have have been overloaded with such,but can still find a way to tolerate it and you may have at one time or another kept on lecturing the same old stuff ,but made sure to have the creativity to make it interesting, I suppose.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Now on anti-pro or neutral labels
On my part ,I don’t” trust “,Gloria and her government,but sorry if I can’t agree with everything the so called anti- Arroyo say.That is why kung medyo bomalabs I ask.
At wala din namang masama makipagusap ng maayos kaya minsan nakakatsamba akong makausap ng matino si Rego,Justice Scalia,Cathcath and other so called Pro-Arroyos.
Guys,sa totoong buhay , di naman siguro tayo tipong magsasaksakan matapos mag inuman dahil sa konting disagreement.
I also have to disagree about neutrals being metapositionists or watchamacollit in the context of being above all positions,but rather one taking the others point of view.
Gosh, CVJ you are now introducing Chemistry terminologies.
But good thing you mention metaposition
Where it can be a position based on other positions,like in your favorite topic elitism, it can be elitism from the point of view of an artsit,an athlete and whatnot.
You are right, it’s human nature,That is what we are doing(having a meta position) ,when we post comments.
UP n student on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 9:22 pm
Some people voted for GMA even when they knew about the fpj-approach, isn’t this true?
The last time you voted, was “food self-sufficiency” even in the top 3 issues you cared about? The next time you vote, will you include this issue when you choose? Do you already know what are the differences (if there are any) in approaches to food-security as proposed by “presidentiables” Noli, Villar, Roxas, Lacson, Legarda, even Chiz or even Erap?
UP n student on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 9:39 pm
I like the pont of view that Leytenian is adding to the discussion, but I suspect that no one will get elected as mayor nor congressman nor senator on a proposal for “….transparency of financial transactions”.
cvj on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 10:35 pm
I notice that the pro-Arroyos don’t want to be reminded about a policy area where FPJ was clearly right and Gloria Arroyo was clearly wrong.
Jakcast, yes we discussed this before and i remember saying that while particular subareas of society (e.g. politics, business, sports etc.) have their elites, there cannot be an ‘elite’ when it comes to society as a whole because Modern Society is functionally (and not hierarchically) decomposed. That’s something the elitists or the pre-modern mindset cannot accept.
Karl, the difference between the ‘neutrals’ and the metapositionists is that the latter always appears only after the pro- and anti- have already made their stand. If you backread the comment threads in this blog, i think you’ll see that this is usually the case. As i said it’s not necessarily bad and such a practice is deeply ingrained in Filipino culture. As a kid, i remember listening to those Balagtasan in the radio where the ‘pro-’ recites his position followed the the ‘anti-’. The exchange continues until a third person (almost always a lady) interjects with a third position that is supposed to be a synthesis of the two opposing sides. This tradition has somehow carried over to the blog discussions.
leytenian on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 10:35 pm
UP n student,
I agree with you. A strong leader can revisit few codes of our constitution. He/She can make a difference or else, she will always be the one to blame.
I have shared my views on other blog site such as Rickycarandang.com and manolo’s previous blog to look on the positive side. If we were to compare the development of democracy in the Philippines to that of a person’s development, we could say that we are in the late stages of our adolescence, almost ready to become a young adult. Our nation is maturing, especially in the area of fiscal responsibility. MORE AND MORE PEOPLE are checking on how well our public officers are managing the people’s money. We are taking action against public officers who are involved in graft and corruption. We are here blogging and exchanging ideas.
An individual person must be strong and should be aware that his/her rights can be justified by learning how to complain and sue our government officials for neglect, damages, pain and sufferings and for fraudulent use of money. An individual can always make a case using a very good lawyer.( smiling) . I am putting words to people’s mouth but it will make a lot of opportunities for our lawyers to think a new niche of making money. lol .
Example: Guinsaugon landslide Southern Leyte 2006 . Politicians will be held accountable for many lives. Allowing trees to be cut without replacing and replanting is the main cause of landslide. I don’t think the mountain will just collapse. Export furniture companies have direct contact with any of them. Transporting those trees from one place to another requires permitting. Few questions to the politicians from the media will create an awareness to the people. In my province, majority have TV’s and cellphones. Yes , the media will play a great role to make people aware by asking appropriate questions.
OT: more power to the lawyer in cebu who made the public aware that people can sue and file damages. (It’s the rectal surgery case).
This is what we call advance people’s revolution. It doesn’t have to be the military way. That’s old school. Good day… UP n
The Equalizer on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 10:55 pm
I remember in mid-March:“There is no rice shortage, the supply [of rice] will continue,†President Arroyo said on Tuesday, reacting to concerns over a possible shortage of the staple of Filipinos.
To prove her point:She ordered a truck from the National Food Authority loaded with rice to accompany the Presidential convoy from Manila during the inaugural drive-thru on the new Subic-Clark-Tarlac highway to signal that the rice-supply chain can meet the demand.
That’s Gloria tactics for us.No wonder she has low credibility! She depends on gimmicks!
Dean on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 11:03 pm
Wow. You actually misspelled “Spratlys” (you wrote ‘Spratleys’ near the top of the article). Unless, of course, that is also an acceptable spelling, in which case please accept my apologies.
jakcast on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 11:11 pm
“there cannot be an ‘elite’ when it comes to society as a whole because Modern Society is functionally (and not hierarchically) decomposed.” – cvj
Yes, I agree. But human nature as it is, ‘elites’ would have to have the ‘elitist’ attitude in order to lead and manage. ‘Primus inter pare’ or first among equals. You have to have a manager’s attitude in order to tell the clerks and janitors to shape up, right?
Even the communist states had their elites, the politburo.
grd on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 11:23 pm
that’s right bencard. anyone but gloria.
and talking about eddie gil, actually he had a better platform than fpg. he promised that if he wins the election, he will pay all the debts of the filipino people.
cvj on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 11:38 pm
Jakcast, if a manager has to internalize a ‘managerial’ attitude to be able to perform his role, then sure, he can go ahead and do so. Whatever works for him i suppose. I would hope though that someone fulfilling such a role would remember it’s just that, and retain such an attitude only during work and not carry it over when he bumps into the clerk/janitors on the street. Otherwise, if that manager retains an air of superiority outside, then he (or she) would be exhibiting an elitist (and pre-modern) mindset. In any case, that manager definitely crosses the line when he/she consents (actively or tacitly) to cheating the janitor/clerks out of their votes.
Bencard on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 11:59 pm
cheat the janitor/clerk out of their votes? where did that come from in the context of jackast’s comment? does one have to be an “elitist” to cheat, or is it o.k for a non-elite to do so?
magdiwang on Sat, 26th Apr 2008 11:59 pm
cvj, hindsight is always 20/20 and does not certainly help in the lack of foresight. Im sure nobody will blame their parents for some unfortunate circumstances when the going gets rough, they always want the best for their children.
our government took a calculated risk in importing rice because the odds are clearly in their favor after buying it cheaply for many years. its really easy for anyone to say “i told you so” when they were actually calling the shots right for decades. Its nitpicking at its best. We can only get a good insight from a bad foresight and definitely NOT from hindsight.
The Ca t on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 12:20 am
This has been discussed in this forum by people with more facts to back up their statements.
Huli ka na. You are not contributing new knowledge.
Kung baga sa papel, itong isyung ito gutay, gutay. Tapos darating ka na akala mo bagong pandinig. DUH.
The Ca t on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 12:23 am
Talaga, I am not on your league. Kasi yata kasama ka pa sa LA LIGA ng FILIPINA.
Honey, what you are saying is already a public knowledge.
Kung basa sa isda. Bilasa na ang iyong mga pinagsasabi. MAtagal na naming pinagpistahan sa diskusyon.
DUH.
cvj on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 12:24 am
magdiwang, the thing is, GMA stole the Presidency from someone who already had the foresight. Continuing with your ‘parent’ analogy, the Arroyo couple in this case are not the ‘real parents’. They actually just kidnapped the children. So when the kids go hungry under their watch, as kidnappers, their accountability is of a different level than the actual parents who, as it happens, knew how to feed the kids.
Bencard, it may surprise you to know that a lot of your allies (who belong to the middle and upper class) accept that Gloria Arroyo cheated, but tolerate such cheating because they believe that the masa’s votes should not be equal to their votes anyway. These are the elitists that i’m referring to.
The Ca t on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 12:29 am
I have been in this forum for how many years and people have discussed civilly and violently (ahem) what this newcomer has been pointing out.Kung baga sa Johnny come lately, LATE talaga. mwehehe
As is we are a bunch of new students who do not know what pork barrel is and how they are used by the legislators.
The questions that she raised are nothing new. Ako pa ang tinanong. Bwahaha. DUH.
leytenian on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 12:36 am
the cat,
i got your point but you don’t need to sound upset. kung sa bisaya “pildi lang maglagot”. no offense. you are ok. i will not apologize for being late on my comments. true i’m new so i am your guest. where’s the filipino hospitality. have you lost it too? some folks remain to be funny. i find lots of humor in this blog site. good day to you.
mang_kiko on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 12:42 am
kung ang usapan na kahit si eddie gil ma-aring mas magaling pa kay aling Glo o sinong Tanpulano, toto-o po iyon. Sa situwasyon nang Pilipinas sa ngayon na ang Presyo nang Bigas halos di kaya nang ordinaryong tao, kong hindi magpila nang Limang Oras sa tatlong Kilos, habang ang manga Politikos, nang suweldo nang 50 mil isang buwan may sariling Helicopter, tatlong SUV, sampong alila na ang suweldo ay hindi umabot nang minimum, at di bodyguard pa gasto nang gobyerno ay nako, kahit sin-o dito na Blogger, liban kay mang_kiko “could have been better than GMA”
nash on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 1:11 am
naku!
OBVIOUS naman ang dahilan kung bakit why we are the biggest Importer of rice in the world!
Nakita niyo ba mga senador natin? Like Franklin Drilon? our military and police chiefs? Mike Arroyo? Butch Aquino?
TINGNAN NIYO NAMAN MGA BILBIL NILA!
They eat more than the daily ethical and moral allowance for rice!
And despite their dietary requirements, do you ever see Franklin Drilon queueing for rice? Hindi!
Ergo, they must be hoarding!
nash on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 1:19 am
@cat
Yes it’s a global crisis but I’m curious to know what VIETNAM and THAILAND did correctly so as to have a surplus given that Filipinos have higher yields per hectare than the Thais and the Viets…
supremo on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 8:31 am
GMA is guilty of changing the topic. She was looking for something to distract the peoples attention away from NBN-ZTE. She thought the looming rice crisis was the one. It was but she just can’t handle it.
rego on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 9:55 am
Hay naku supremo, yang nga conspiracy theories nyo huh , hindi na kapanipaniwala. Ano naman ang akala mo sa mga tao dito?????
inodoro ni emilie on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 9:56 am
bencard, bencard. now that’s absurd.
“never tested and tried?” so was einstein’s theory before he died. not that am saying fpj was an einstein. you don’t kill ideas with the death of the person who formulated it–originally or adapted.
don’t commit the mistake of appreciating comment from a dead mind, bencard. it would be un-bencard for you to do so.
rego on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 9:57 am
And that is the reason why I just cannot in this anti Gloria crowd. I may have some issues with Gloria, But hey I just cannot see my self joining your chorus of lies and deceits.
inodoro ni emilie on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 10:03 am
pro or anti is not a club. you don’t join. you only make a stand.
jude on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 10:15 am
“Quite a murky reading of the crystal ball.” – Bert
The so-called “murky reading” is based on the historical fact that all administrations failed to provide agricultural self-sufficiency. No one has a crystal ball to read the future, or what could have been. But reading the past and the present can provide clues.
This is more realistic than speculations based on motherhood statements or hypothetical programs, especially coming from politicians who are inclined to make extravagant promises which they ultimately never keep.
*******************************************************
Regarding the IMF’s imposition of tight monetary policies hampering credit to the countryside, that is a good point that KG makes. However, tight monetary policies haven’t been around all of the time. And even during periods of “loose” money, banks in the Philippines have always had a pawnshop mentality and have always been averse to lend money to farmers. Why? Because collateral is foremost in their minds. Most farmers can’t put up collateral that banks would consider sufficient. And even if farmlands were collateralized, in cases of default, banks can’t see themselves in the business of farming. Commercial and urban land is much more convenient because they can easily be sold and converted to cash.
While banks may be guilty of this pawnshop mentality, they are only following the rules of the game. The greater blame lies in the fact that past and present administrations have not taken bolder policies to encourage lending to the countryside. And that not enough resources were spent to develop infrastructure and support servises for the countryside. To my mind, this is the result of a myopic mindset that focuses on short-term political and financial gain. This focus on the short-term also is what causes much corruption. In this matter, I must blame the so-called “elite” because they are supposedly better educated, should know better, and should set the example for others to follow.
It takes tremendous political will to have a comprehensive agricultural policy. Only government has the financial and coercive clout to channel resources towards agricultural production. It takes vision and unwavering courage to pursue such a program. So far, we have only seen uninspired and myopic leadership from one administration after another.
hvrds on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 10:26 am
“my 2 cents, just recently the price per share of equities and commodities were determined by their inherent value calculated painstakingly by market analysts. in the last few years the fundamentals behind the value of such financial instruments have decoupled at least in the short term driven by greed of market speculators armed with billion dollar portfolios. The manipulation is through the increasing use of option, momentum, sentiment, market timing, and technical trading in wall street. This has greatly contributed in the volatility of the commodities market where grain prices can skyrocket with no real shortage.. i believe that this modern day gamblers should be regulated, so not to adversely affect poor nations like us.”
The rise of financial markets after the end of the cold war coupled financial markets around the globe.
They are essentially futures markets derived from prevailing economic conditions in the real economy.
Emphasis on the word futures. Equity, fixed income markets, currency, commodity markets, real estate martkets and now even carbon trading are about the future.
The Philippines as part of the its adherence to the doctrines of neo -liberal economic paradigm repealed its uniform currency law sometime back.
So we coupled our financial markets with the global financial system wholeheartedly dominated by the dollar reserve system. However economic coupling or economic integration is another matter altogether.
Our Queen in waiting was at the forefront of this entire process when she was a avid sponsor of the entry of the Philippines in WTO wth a more liberal interpretation of WTO scriptures.
She is a doctrinarie free trader and does not understand the ramifications of what she was doing.
The Philippines is a deficit importer of goods, a deficit importer of capital and we have a surplus in the income of labor we export. Everyone who understands even a little about 1+1=2 will understand this.
So hse knows wholeheartedly the dangers that she herself lobbied for while she was working her way up the political food chain.
The Philippines since the Spaniards, and the Americans till today have always depended on foreign capital to fund its consumption.
Today we are solely dependent on foreign savings to fund our imports and pay for our debts. It is the foreign savings of our OFW’s that keep the economy humming.
However the countries around us – Japan, Taiwan, PRC and India did not fully couple their finacial markets while Thailand and Indonesia and Malaysia did and they have tried in their own ways to institue measures to reverse the coupling.
The starins started with Mexico in 1994 then migrated through a lot of countries in the nineties until Argentina broke the existing model and send it to the dustbin.
Then off course you had 9/11 and the U.S. was invading Iraq and Afghanistan and the world entered the GWOT. The Global War on Terror.
The nineties also saw the rise of the soccer moms love of the huge gas guzzling SUV’s that has become a part of American culture.
The eighties saw the deregulation of the financial services industry in the U.S. and that culminated in the nineties with the repeal of Glass Steagal. In the late eighties that deregulation resulted in the savings loan fiasco in the U.S. and the removal of investment banking firewall that separated this from commercial banking and you have the subprime and other investment banking blowups that is rocking finacial markets today.
Add to this the natural evolution of industrialization of India and China plus the tapping out of easy to get to oil and you have stressess becoming apparent in the future of supply of strategic commodities.
The Queen in waiting was glorifying herself when the stock market was making new records and the peso hitting fresh highs versus the dollar.
But that was all resulting from external factors and not her.
Now external factors are catching up to her seeming faith in markets for the Filipino people (but not for her cronies)and she is poiniting to an abstract force in the world as responsible for this tidal wave of inflation.
Looking forward the bond markets will go through a correction as inflationary expectations are taking hold. Long term rates will move higher. That means all those low interest bonds in the market will loose value to compensate.
Right now total public sector debt in the Philippines is approximately $5 trillion. NFA is a GOCC and it can borrow on its own today and not affect the budget at all. The Queen in waiting has ordered that all the surplus with other GOCC’s be used to support the food crisis. Again all off budget transactions. NFA bonds have a sovereign guarantee.
The Queen in waiting can be held responsible because she has always been at the forefront of this move to couple our finacial markets and our economy more broadly and faster than most other economies situated like ours.
She has the OFW’s to backstop her and make her look good.
Her record is clear. During the Gatt-WTO debates the agricultural expert then Ramon Clarete siad that food security meant that we could import food that was cheaper from our more efficient and productive neighbors. In a world where financial markets were coupled we could access foreign savings through investments and borrowings.
In business accounting it would make sense. However in economic accounting foreign investments are in substance also obligations that will be drawn from the domestic economy.
In essence we borrow foreign savings also to enable foreign investors to pay for the repatriation of capital and profits.
hvrds on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 10:29 am
Correction public sector debt should read Php 5 trillion.
UP n student on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 10:52 am
O, tingnan ninyo….. maaring nga na lahat, maliban kay mang kiko, ay mas magaling kay GMA. Pero iba-iba pa rin ang patakbo depende kung sino sa mga blogger ang nasa poder. Iyong iba, uunahing arestohin ang mga mayayaman lalo na kung nag-aral sa Ateneo. Iyong iba, pa-kikinggan, ang Amerika, iyong iba naman, papakinggan ang Cuba o Venezuela, o ang United Nations. Iyong iba, gi-giyerahin ng husto ang MILF. Iyong iba, baka ibigay ang Mindanao sa MILF. Iyong iba, hindi lang ituturo ang sex education sa high school, do-doblehin o triplehin pa ang pera ng gobyerno na gastos sa condom. Iyong iba, ipag-babawal ang sex education dahil iyon ang sabi ni Pope Gregory. Iyong iba, ibabalik si Erap; iyong iba naman, baka ang ilagay sa poder, si Trillanes o si Doc Bautista. Iyong iba, ibaba kaagad ang presyo ng gasolina. Iyong iba, dodoblehin kaagad ang minimum wage.
cvj on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 11:00 am
Fact: FPJ explicitly stated Food Security as his Number One priority.
Fact: FPJ was cheated by Gloria Arroyo and so did not have the opportunity to even start implementing such policy.
Fact: Gloria Arroyo rejected food security via agricultural self-sufficiency and instead, pursued a policy of (as hvrds mentioned above) ‘importing food that was cheaper from our more efficient and productive neighbors’.
The rest is speculation based on cherry-picking of ‘clues’ (or sour-graping).
jude on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 11:24 am
Woulda . . . Coulda . . . Shoulda . . . It’s still going into the realm of speculation. Trying to beat a dead horse back to life . . . so pathetic it’s almost funny!
rego on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 11:25 am
Fact: Erap Said wlang kama kamag-anak, kaikaibigan in his inagural speeh/
Fact: everybody knows what he actuatllu did when he is in malacanang.
Fact: FPJ run because Erap convinced him to run.
Fact: Filipinos do not vote on issues and platform
Fact: CVJ voted for Gloria not FPJ
Fact: CVJ did not know about the food security of FPJ issue during the election:
Fact: Now that we have the rice crisis only then he made his research about FPJ Food security program.
Fact: CVJ wanted to use that FPJ food security
to feed his and his ilks anger towards GMA.
Fact: FPJ is dead wasnt able to sit in malacanang as president. So whatever good platforms he had will not matter at all if e dicussed then over and over again . The only thing it can achive is to maintain teh anger of anti Gloria crowd :
Fact: CVJ motive and bringing this up FPJ food is evil and not to solve this rice problem at all.
Fact: CVJ is was educated in La Salle and he is Catholic:
mlq3 on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 11:54 am
this book, http://www.ipc-ateneo.org/publications/?id=28 makes for instructive reading.
you can read about it here:
http://www.pcij.org/stories/2004/poorvote.html
which is not to idealize this category of voters. when we went to campaign for Sabas Abang Mabulo in Bicol, during the motorcade people would go up to him or signal to him by rubbing their fingers together (money, money) and he would shake his head each and every time (few and far between were such people, but noticeable). contrast that with the lakas-cmd hq for dato arroyo where people were lining up for “logistics.” but even then in the end dato had to pull out all the stops to win.
homegirl on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 11:56 am
This statement below by CVJ is very stupid (i’m attacking the statement, not the person)
I have scanned the book after downloading it. Basically it says
Today: Helper P2,000 per month. Laptop: P30,000
Accdg to CVJ if
tomorrow: Helper P20,000 per month… Laptop will be P300,000 each???? (by adding the zero??))
A P300,000 laptop?????? Where in the world? Even in the USA, that model will just lower than P30,000 (we have to import – duty and freight)
Some people really stop thinking when faced with new ideas..
I am saying Hyperwage is correct. But I cant say the CVJ is correct either..
A P300,000 laptop???…. ano yan.. gold?
—————–
cvj :
BTW, regarding ‘hyperwage theory’, raising everyone’s salaries by ten times is equivalent to adding another zero to our currency with the same effect. I prefer the previous suggestion of drawing horns on the 200 peso bill.
April 24th, 2008 at 7:06 pm
cvj on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 12:12 pm
Homegirl, you are assuming that the exchange rate (versus foreign currencies) will remain the same. Using your example, a P300,000 laptop is possible if as a result of multiplying salaries ten times, the peso:dollar exchange rate also is multiplied by ten times e.g. 400 Pesos to 1 US Dollar (as opposed to today’s 40 pesos to 1 US Dollar), which would be the likely outcome. In the above, the dollar value of the laptop remains the same.
If hyperwage theory is correct, why stop at multiplying salaries by ten times? Why not multiply all salaries by one billion so all of us will become multi-billionaires?
I am not against increasing salaries (especially the minimum wage) as there are other reasonable basis for doing so i.e. to stimulate consumer demand. However, salaries and wages cannot get too much ahead of productivity as we would be shooting ourselves in the foot by discouraging investments that would augment our capacity to produce.
grd on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 12:19 pm
“Fact: CVJ is was educated in La Salle and he is Catholic:”
Speculation: he is outnumbered by ateneans in this blog.
cvj on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 12:20 pm
Rego, those facts you introduce in the context of the present discussion are known as red herrings. What Erap said, who i am and what my previous choices were are not relevant to FPJ and GMA’s policy choices.
I was wrong in voting for Gloria, and the masa were correct. Anyway, Gloria won because of Hello Garci which makes my vote moot and academic. More importantly, I would not have and do not approve of cheating as the way to keep Office because as Randy David said, “Politics is society’s way of producing collectively binding decisions.” and the way of making collectively binding decisions when choosing leaders is through elections. We mess with that process at our peril.
The other logical fallacy you have committed (and have been committing since before) is also a form of red herring fallacy called ‘appeal to motive’.
magdiwang on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 12:38 pm
hvrds, the jury is still out if the philippines adherence to free market principles was a mistake. most countries have become part of the world financial system. those who are not are pushing their governments to join. trade is now globalized and even non free trader countries are also feeling the pinch on what’s going on around them. vietnam who is a net exporter of rice seeing their staple retail prices soaring 85%. our country is too dependent on foreign capital to resist the pressure on not being part of this community. i wonder if we even have a choice looking though the general structure of our economy. although we are only in the third inning of this global financial meltdown, there are subtle signs that the bottom is near with xlf soaring this week. dont fight the fed, there is too much at stake here even if it has to print more fiat currency or open more thr fed spigot to backstop the crisis.
our country is definitely fortunate to have OFW’s. filipinos care too much for their families, they will increase their remittances to compensate for the rising prices thus saving the day for all of us once again. gma probably knows about this, hehehehe. who would want to bet against peso appreciation in the long term knowing the ofw’s will probably come to the rescue. hmmmmmmmm…. she is indeed one lucky biatch.
jakcast on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 12:41 pm
“Politics is society’s way of producing collectively binding decisions.†– Randy David
The practical definition of politics is “struggle for power.”
cvj on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 1:02 pm
Yes Jakcast, for many in the Upper and Middle Classes, despite their education, it still boils down to might makes right, which accounts for their shortsighted support for Arroyo.
jude on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 1:24 pm
“. . . not to idealize this category of voters . . . but even then in the end dato had to pull out all the stops to win.” – mlq3
But still Dato won, even if he “had to pull out all the stops”. What were the “stops”? Vote buying? Ward politics? Coercion?
While I don’t dispute the conclusions made by the article, the resulting vote can still be very fragile. If the voters were really more discerning, the situation of having a carpetbagger imposed on the electorate by local and national politicians would be intolerable. The carpetbagger would have been sent packing by an overwhelming majority. However, if the carpetbagger still managed to win, albeit “pulling out all the stops”, it still shows how vulnerable this “category of voters” is.
d0d0ng on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 1:30 pm
According to Song Seng Wun, regional economist at CIMB-GK Research, the Philippine president Gloria Arroyo panicked and ordered 1.5 million tons of rice. The Asian exporting countries were alarmed and responded by restricting exports based on national security point of view. This created the Asia’s fear of impending rice shortages.
The Philippine president who is hounded left and right by corruption is sensitive to civil unrest that might result from rice crises and increases in other food prices. So she made the order.
It becomes her self-inflicted wound depending on the reactions of the public.
hvrds on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 1:36 pm
“most countries have become part of the world financial system. those who are not are pushing their governments to join. trade is now globalized and even non free trader countries are also feeling the pinch on what’s going on around them. vietnam who is a net exporter of rice seeing their staple retail prices soaring 85%. our country is too dependent on foreign capital to resist the pressure on not being part of this community. I wonder if we even have a choice looking though the general structure of our economy.”
Last I looked the most successfull countries have not joined the worlds financial system dominated by the FED and are making moves to restrain the bad effects and preapring for the fall of the dollar as the reserve currency.
The idea behind the construction of the Eurozone, Englands refusal to join either the Eurozone’s common currency or the dollar zone, PRC’s strict capital controls, India’s capital controls, Japan and Taiwans strict control of their capital accounts and Latin America’s move to establish thir own monetary zone are all sure signs of the eventual breaking up of the dollar reserve system.
The ECB did not move their interest rates lower. They do not have to fight the Fed. They have maintained national control of their currencies.
The rush to convert dollars into any asset outside dollar denominated assets is fueling this inflationary tidal wave so where is the rush to embrace dollar based financial system coming from?
Why don’t the Americans care? Because you see they also own and control worldwide assets denominated in other currencies that are earning them profits.
Have your Coke Zero and enjoy it. It fuels more profits send home to Mama in the U.S.
Since the Eurozone is producing goods in Euros companies there are also trasnferring their plants to the U.S. to take advantage of cheaper costs than in their own country.
Oh yeah in Vietnam where 80% of the people still live in the countryside and live off their produce price inflation denominated in a foreign currency has a small effect on them.
Maybe you should suggest to your favorite President that it might be time to put together an expedition with Gen. Esperon and company and raid all those bulging warehouses in Vietnam that have all that tonnage of rice. They are actually hoarding it and will sell at the right price it seems.
She could get a legal opinion from Miriam and Raul Gonzales about the legality of invading Vietnam since they obviously are speculating on rice prices to gain a windfall from their surplus.
Oh yeah, since when was trade not globalized?
mlq3 on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 2:02 pm
d0d0ng, do you have a link to that regional economist’s views?
The Ca t on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 2:56 pm
While shortsighted anti-gma haters continue to lay the blame of rising prices on the government this is the explanation of the global crisis.
ito may link, yong iba wala. DUH
http://www.smh.com.au/news/businessinnovations/hunger-nibbles-protectionism/2008/04/17/1208025357614.html
The Ca t on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 3:08 pm
Siyanga?
business protectionism has always been the name of the game even for world trade.
The normal reaction for staple products producers/exporters such as rice and wheat is to provide enough for the domestic consumption before they export. DIDn’T YOU KNOW THAT?
This “silent tsunami” has been hounding the asian countries long before the rice shortage and price inflation became the headlines of the world news.
The high tariff duties of importing countries to protect the agricultural industries have also something to do with this shortage.
with the supply less than the demand, the importing countries such as the Philippines has to consider lowering these trade barriers.
Tssk tssk, maraming nagmamarunong, ang mata naman hanggang Pilipinas lang.
grd on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 3:13 pm
opps, another ammunition.
dodong, did you know that last year the phils imported 1.8 million tons of rice? and maybe you missed reading this one below from pcij.
http://www.pcij.org/blog/?p=2256#more-2256
hay… paulit-ulit na lang tayo. pinipilit isisi sa politika ng bansa ang nangyayaring global crisis. parang langaw na nakatuntong sa kalabaw. bida pa rin ang pinoy.
The Ca t on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 3:28 pm
what he failed to mention was that this comment emanated from the discussion of the export restrictions being made by countries even before the plan of importing 1.5 millio tons of rice.
This is a question of which comes first, the chicken or the egg.
This comes from what he quoted.
The rest are the his own opinion.
DUH.
jakcast on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 5:11 pm
@ cvj,
Point is, what politicians and practitioners of politics (e.g. lobbyists, public relations people, etc) understand is the practical definion. Even former priest, Fr. Among Ed Panlilio, knew this. He used the Catholic Church as his power base versus the power and money of the gambling lords.
Its not just the upper and middle classes (‘elitists’) who are grounded in the the power struggle concept. Karl Marx, Lenin, and others. Definitely, these people were not pre-modern leaders. Lately, Fidel Castro, Hugo Chavez, etc.
You have to be elected as the leader, before you can run your mission.
vic on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 6:08 pm
“This strike may well be ‘legal,’ but is it moral?”
This queation was raised by one reader to the Star regarding the issue of the Right to Strike by the Transit Workers, which left thousands (l and ½ millions take the transit daily) stranded Friday night when the Transit workers called a Surprise Strike after announcing a Tentative agreement Sunday, April 19 and some without alternative transport home were forced to walk..
In a very rare Sunday Emergency Session Premier Dalton McGuinty will table a “Back to Work†Legislation in time for Monday rush hour.
Now back to the Question..It maybe Legal, but is it Moral? It was a legal Strike. Maybe not very Long, because with the Anger of the Taxpayers who is the paying the bill, the Provincial Government is “musing†about Declaring the Mass Transit an Essential Services, which take away their right to strike, and walkout and slow down or get fired..
http://www.thestar.com/News/GTA/article/418906
http://www.thestar.com/News/GTA/article/418904
UP n student on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 7:59 pm
Someone made a comment last night :
UP n student on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 8:09 pm
“If you didn’t have ethanol, you would not have the prices we have today,” said Bruce Babcock, a professor of economics and the director of the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development at Iowa State University.
This year, at least a fifth and perhaps a quarter of the U.S. corn crop will be fed to ethanol plants. As food and fuel fuse, it has presented a boon to American farmers after years of stable prices. But it has also helped spark the broader food-price shock.
Bencard on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 8:54 pm
rego, additional facts for cvj:
FACT: his belief that GMA cheated FPJ is pure speculation.
FACT: cvj takes the cake for one-track mind persistence against all reasons.
marc1a on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 9:32 pm
just toying with a ridiculous idea for an equally ridiculous scenario:
great fear. part of the plan. must be. the government is in control: this is what they always say anyway. could be this is precisely how they planned it. like a double-bladed sword: for every problem there is a corresponding opportunity. to gain “opportunity”, create a problem… for what? isn’t it an insider already squealed: commissions (easy bucks from importation)… this way, di nga naman masyado halata
.
poor me. must be really hÃœngry: imagination gone wild. or hallucination creeping in…
marc1a on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 9:33 pm
– double-edged, i.e., sorry.
cvj on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 9:49 pm
Jakcast, to say that politics is a ’struggle for power’ is similar to saying that business is a ’struggle for profit’. In short, it is the usual confusion between means and ends that leads to such an impoverished definition.
Even without a political system, and even outside society, the ’struggle for power’ is already there. Outside society [aka Hobbes 'state of nature'], the struggle for power boils down to ‘might makes right‘. What is supposed to distinguish a political system within civilized society is the larger role played by communicative power (i.e. where reason takes the lead) in arriving at collectively binding decisions that are then supposed to be directed towards the common good. It should no longer be a matter of who is the strongest or the most cunning.
Now if the upper and middle classes see politics merely as a struggle for power and, as a result, disregard the rules or bend it to their advantage, then what they are doing is reproducing the state of nature within society, albeit with a superficial veneer of procedures to keep up appearances. This is dangerous and shortsighted because it weakens the reasons for having a political system in the first place. Perhaps for the Upper class, it is a calculated risk because they always have a way out. For the middle class, it is a more dangerous gamble.
UP n student on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 9:58 pm
Food for thought. The government of Argentina has implemented confiscatory taxes on farmers. “In the name of the greater good”? Or ‘because the government is incompetent’?
—–
A strike by Argentine farmers over rising taxes on major export goods has entered its third week, with little sign of resolution. Blockades by farmers have led to shortages in the shops and have also hit exports, with some companies saying they cannot fulfil their contracts.
The government says the tax increases are justified and it will use force if necessary to get food to the markets. Rival demonstrators rallied in Buenos Aires overnight amid some scuffles.
The latest crisis was sparked by the government’s decision to introduce a new sliding scale of export taxes, raising levies in some cases up to 45%.
Argentina, a leading exporter of beef, corn, soy oil and soybeans, has benefited from the recent global surge in commodity prices.
But farmers say the taxes are hitting them and their communities hard. “Our profit margins are getting smaller and smaller. What we pay to the state is not returned to us in the form, for example, of subsidies to buy fertilizers or to promote the social and educational development of our communities,” Marcelo Rasseto, a small farmer from Santa Fe province, told the BBC.
cvj on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 9:59 pm
This might be what D0d0ng is referring to:
http://www.forbes.com/reuters/feeds/reuters/2008/04/26/2008-04-27T014953Z_01_MAN273918_RTRIDST_0_ASIA-ECONOMY-FOOD-ANALYSIS.html
anthony scalia on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 10:41 pm
cvj,
Fact: FPJ never said how he’d do it.
Fact: thats a usual election campaign rhetoric
Fact: FPJ also cheated.
Fact: Eddie Villanueva did not cheat.
Fact: you are completely unaware of the efforts of the Department of Agriculture towards agricultural self-sufficiency. Not enough, yes, but the direction is there
i wonder if the ‘food crisis’ is caused by gloria’s wrong policy choice. did you score gloria on that area even before the ‘food crisis’ started?
UP n student on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 11:27 pm
cvj: respect the rules and “follow the Constitution” is one of the messages by many from the middle-, the upper- and the poor to explain their lack of participation in surging the Malacanang gates. Now, if the anti-GMA can manage the rules so that impeachment processes push forward this year or next, those who have not surged the gates will listen intently to the proceedings.
cvj on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 11:37 pm
I didn’t score Gloria because i was on the wrong side of the debate on that one (which is more or less her side).
http://www.quezon.ph/1500/rice-self-sufficiency/
Commenter Leo (who emphasized ‘Food Sovereignty’) got it right. So did Sparks and Justice League among others.
mlq3 on Sun, 27th Apr 2008 11:46 pm
scalia, what makes you say fpj cheated?
BrianB on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 12:43 am
“this book, http://www.ipc-ateneo.org/publications/?id=28 makes for instructive reading.
you can read about it here:
http://www.pcij.org/stories/2004/poorvote.html”
Manolo,
I’ve been repeating a similar opinion, the poor is often logical, more logical than the elite because they’re concerns are sincere. Compare that to the upper middle class and the “pundits.” And I didn’t need to do a survey on this one, just my… ehem natural preponderance to make out my kababayans as a decent group of people.
Bert on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 12:48 am
“Yes it’s a global crisis but I’m curious to know what VIETNAM and THAILAND did correctly so as to have a surplus given that Filipinos have higher yields per hectare than the Thais and the Viets…”-nash
nash, we all know what Vietnam and Thailand did correctly. They chose leaders inclined to be self-sufficient in rice, and do something about it, instead of relying on massive rice imports.
Here, our leader do the opposite, and her apologists are singing hossanas to the global rice crisis just to defend their favorite president.
Bert on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 1:20 am
“i wonder if the ‘food crisis’ is caused by gloria’s wrong policy choice.”-anthony
anthony, if you think gloria has the right policy choice, and we have a crisis now, then, surely, gloria’s right policy choice is just a choice, nothing more.
Which means that her actual choice is to import massively, which caused all this hardship to the people.
vic on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 4:02 am
In time of crisis, and before it gets any worse the Government has the responsibility to do everything in its power, legally, to stop it from getting out of control.
The transit strike, maybe looked at just a labour dispute, but the ramifications to the economy of the province, especially to the city which is the Economic Engine of the country is beyond anyone’s imagination plus the inconvenience and the cost it will cause the already suffering public getting hit by the raising prices in gasoline, the harm to environment with the use of cars and for those with no alternative means of transport a very expensive taxi ride or a long walk.
Without warning, the Union Leaders put the whole city hostage and perhaps the safety of its members which will bear the brunt of the riding public, I hope not. In a very rare move the government called for A Sunday Session and in a 30 minutes deliberation with support from all parties passed a Back to Work Legislation and was given an immediate royal assent.
The Union and the Management has 30 days to appoint an Arbitrator to settle whatever their differences bearing in mind the City capacity to pay the cost and if can not decide on the arbitrator, the labour minister will appoint one for them. Dispute resolved and tomorrow the wheels will be rolling again…or even tonight..
http://www.thestar.com/GTA/Transportation/article/418964
UP n student on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 5:43 am
Vic: Strikes by transit workers with intent to paralyze a city is common tactic. Has happened recently in Paris; likewise in Metro-Manila with the jeepney driver strikes. And even in face of an existing law prohibiting them from striking, workers still strike in order to negotiate for higher salaries, e.g. New York City transit workers strike in 2005.
UP n student on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 6:01 am
I noticed that according to the 2004 survey “The Poor Vote Is A Thinking Vote”, “Makadiyos” has almost 3 times the importance to the respondents versus “tumutupad sa pangako” and “mapapagkatiwalaan”. Seems to be a good description of the current crop of elected Filipino officials…. hears services every Sunday, but.
vic on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 6:20 am
UP n,
But this walkout will have a negative impact on the Union. They already arrived at a negotiated settlement last week, but the union leaders were not able to deliver their membership and may had just provoked the public to urge the government to legislate the Transit an Essential Service, the same as Police, Fire and Medical Services where disputes will be brought to Binding Arbitration instead of Strike Actions or any Techniques to win concessions.
But today the Transit is back in operation and except for a two weekend days of inconvenience, the Union got nothing more, but maybe lose their right to strike for more serious and more beneficial issues in the Future..remain to be seen…
BrianB on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 6:23 am
UP n, your snobbery is pathological.
UP n student on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 8:18 am
BrianB, Should I conclude that you believe that the current crop of elected officials are “tumutupad sa kanilang pangako” to their constituency? Actually, the statistics are on your side — evidence : political dynasties.
UP n student on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 8:33 am
actually, BrianB, I would rather you tell me how you match the survey — a portrait of how the Filipino poor have defined how they choose the candidate to vote for —to the people getting elected, e.g. the current crop in the Senate and in Congress.
leytenian on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 8:34 am
back to our economic history. someone said that our current style of managing a country has always been that way. corruption is becoming a common practice.
my point: should we learn from the past and use it as a guide to come up with a better solution for the current situation? if it’s the case, have we not learned from the past? someone said, it’s always been that way.
when I was in school long time ago,i remember in my economic class, I was asked the three causes of the Asian economic crisis in 1997-98. i google search ” causes of asian economic crisis” lots of answers. it was an easy class.
My conclusion is that: we did have lots of debts from the previous administration. On the positive side using current GDP average,we experience growth. My question, is our GDP overstated to make it look good so that we can easily borrow if needed? Or as it is? If overstated, what are the consequences in addition to the Rice Crisis?
supremo on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 8:34 am
rego,
‘Hay naku supremo, yang nga conspiracy theories nyo huh , hindi na kapanipaniwala. Ano naman ang akala mo sa mga tao dito?????’
I don’t believe in conspiracy theories. I think you do because you said ‘nyo huh’. Please list the names of the ‘nyo’ so we can see how they are related.
nash on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 8:39 am
@bert
siguro nga.
Gloria has had 6 years already. By this time, her grand plan should have been completed.
It’s disappointing to read the PCIJ report showing that GMA has hired incompetent and unqualified people for cabinet posts.
Look at Yap, he is just a mere lawyer and still he got the DA portfolio. And what about the DENR secretary? Why is that moron there?
inodoro ni emilie on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 8:50 am
biggest fact you of all: joc joc the agri scam poc poc diverted the funds intended for farmers to pad up the already lard laden hog who lives in the sty by the pasig river. that’s where the rice and corn fertilizer allocation had gone. as in gone.
Bencard on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 9:17 am
nash, what’s wrong with being a lawyer? you think you are a better person and can do a better job? what can you say about yourself any way that gives you the nerve to call somebody a “moron”?
inodoro, and how did you arrive at that conclusion? by reading the inquirer, watching news “reports” at abs-cbn, or listening to harry roque? and you call it fact??
inodoro ni emilie on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 9:41 am
bencard,
by the rotarian 4-way test?
jude on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 9:49 am
“I would rather you tell me how you match the survey — a portrait of how the Filipino poor have defined how they choose the candidate to vote for —to the people getting elected, e.g. the current crop in the Senate and in Congress.” – UP n student
I agree. That survey or study is spotty at best because, on a nationwide basis, the actual electoral results don’t bear out that study. There may be a few places here and there that stand out, but, overall, it’s still the same old story.
Even in Mr. Quezon’s example in Camarines Sur, family dynasties, and politics as usual, still won out. And that scenario was repeated in the majority of places. Why do you think we see the same old names in both houses of congress? I honestly don’t believe that msot of those instiable parasites that we call our political leaders were voted in because people actually believe they are “Makadiyos” or “Tumutupad sa pangako” or “Mapapagkatiwalaan”.
mlq3 on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 10:23 am
jude, actually bicol’s an interesting case of how dynasties refresh themselves. the big shot was luis villafuerte who hasn’t been getting along with his son, among other reasons, because by all accounts the son is more dyanamic and forward-thinking. if i’m not mistaken they were actually openly at loggerheads for a while.
you would have to look at the enduring dynasties and see why they have endured. sometimes it involves winnowing things through intra-family competition. or its through delivery of services, e.g. the villars in las pinas, the binays in makati, even jv ejercito is proving to be a dynamic mayor, someone was telling me he shows up in the office at 7 am businessmen are rather pleased officials are sent to their offices to attend to government-related paperwork, sparing them time-consuming visits, etc. (jinggoy was a pretty lousy mayor by comparison). and of course there are other areas where the answer’s simpler, still: fraud and terrorism.
hvrds on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 10:49 am
Why no price surge in mangoes, bananas and pineapples?
The entire government machinery from DA, DTI, DOF have been beating the drumbeat for the export of our agricultural winners daw. Forget rice and corn we can import it cheaper from outside.
Why can’t Danding try to cerate a cartel for bananas and mangoes like what he tried to do with coconut oil in the seventies with FM.
He has got a massive mango plantation in the South. Why not encourage the eating of banana chips instead of rice. The government helped the Banana King in the South establish his empire…
Why no help for rice farmers. The DA is now getting information or data from the Grain Traders Association and Rice Millers Association of the Philippines. Please note there is no Rice Farmers Association of the Philippines. I wonder why? You have banana farmers groups, sugar farmers groups and mango famers groups.
Look we have chopped down 80% of forrest cover which has affected the water table in the entire country.
Thailand, India, Vietnam and the rest of Indo China are fed by the Himalayan rangesand the moonsoon rains. We have our moonsoom seasons with our typhoon seasons and instead of building catch basins and maintaining forrest cover we sold our timber to the Japanese. Next thing we did was destroy our mangroves and move to fish and prawn farming to supply the chopsticks economies. Mangroves are vital source of food for fish spawning. They also serve as a natural barrier to sea erosion.
That is why our subsistence fisherfolk are running out of fish.
All in the name of a colonial mindset of exporting resources and importing finished goods.
Now we are left to using the goundwater which is limited and fast being depleted for farming as we have destroyed countless rivers in the name of development. No trees and rivers become heavily silted and rainwater becomes a roaring flood that makes most of Central Luzon a catch basin. This is now being repeated in Mindanao. Cebu is stripped bare and its probelms on water supply are well known.
Multiply this model of resource destruction on a big scale and you have a good picture of a country destroying itself.
We have been the authors of our own destiny and you are witnessing simply a portents of things to come when countries destroy their own resources for monetary gain of a few.
It is the money fetish that become a religion. Then we are told that our country is not conducive for rice production due to the extensive use of water resources.
Someone forgot to inform those experts that we did not care to make sure that we maintained and expanded on man made interventions to sustain, preserve and multiply our natural resources to be used for our own purposes.
Now we want to ask for loans to rebuild our forrests.
Do we have time to reverse this major crisis at the same time utilize inorganic fertilizers that will destroy whatever we have of arable land in the long term?
Food, Fire, Water and Air.
I do know that the present royal couple in waiting in the Palace have a basic knowledge in sustainable economic development.
But they can always move to Californaia and enjoy the beauty of San Francisco and marvel at all the natural endownments in that State.
hvrds on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 11:34 am
The horses have already left the barn and now the government would like to get actual data on rice production in the country……..
Eh, kasi lahat hula lang pala. Nabisto sila nang si GMA mismo ang nagsabi na ang Pinas daw ay mag iimport kasi kulang ang bigas dito….What was a normal domestic shortage became a lit match on a spreading price inflation in food.
Di lahat nang bansa na may kulang na bigas ay nag-unahan y di mas tumaas ang halaga nang imported.
Yung DA pala walang wala ng totoong data
“Last Saturday evening, Yap held an emergency meeting with rice millers and grains traders to get a better and clearer picture of actual domestic rice production and supply, and thresh out suspicions of hoarding by some millers and traders.”
“Following the three-hour meeting, rice millers and grains traders all over Luzon pledged to provide the Department of Agriculture with data on their actual palay purchases, their milling capacity, the subsequent losses from milling, the cost of milling, transport and distribution, as well as additional profit margin.”
“Joji Co, president of the Philippine Confederation of Grains Association (PhilConGrains), such information would give the government a better chance to stabilize the domestic supply and prices of the staple even during the traditional lean months of July to September.
The rice millers and grains traders sought the dialogue with Yap following what they felt was an indiscriminate crackdown on legal rice millers and grains traders who were being portrayed as rice hoarders or profiteers.”
“Co noted that recent raids of warehouses full of grains have painted a negative image of rice millers and grains traders who were tagged as hoarders.”
“According to Co, a full warehouses does not necessarily mean that the owner is a hoarder. If anything, it is an indication that there is enough grains being stored and that, in fact, there is no rice shortage he added.”
“Over 60 officers and members of (PhilConGrains) assured Yap of a stable supply for the rest of the year.”
“Accompanied by Pangasinan Representative Mark Cojuangco and Robert Estrella of the party-list Abono, the rice millers and grains businessmen also reached an agreement with Yap to work out with the DA and the National Food Authority (NFA) a “pricing mechanism†to keep rice accessible and affordable to ordinary consumers.”
“As a sign of good faith, Yap said the grains traders committed to inform the DA in a week’s time the total volume of rice stocks currently in their possession which they are to unload in the market during the lean months.” Philippine Star, Marianne Go
leytenian on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 11:55 am
hvrds,
“Do we have time to reverse this major crisis at the same time utilize inorganic fertilizers that will destroy whatever we have of arable land in the long term?”
of course, all we have left is time and the only constant in this world is Change. Sadly to say, it may not be in our generation. In my province, both candidates were buying votes at the same price. it was rumored that both candidates were complaining because people are getting expensive. lol, it’s now 1000 pesos each. meaning each person will at least receive 2000 pesos.
let me give you a calculation: in my town, there are about 20,000 voters. x 1000 ,that’s 2 million pesos of investment from a mayor. I believe he get paid as salary at $ 30,000 pesos/montly . Now, how could he pay back his initial investment of 2 million. Which department do you think he will cheat? projects proposed? taxes? small business licenses? or a combination of both?
Now multiply all the mayors in the Philippines and consider the pork that will be distributed to each. also consider deductions for management fee from the upper house. how much do you think will get to the end?
Self sufficiency in RICE is always possible. It’s our money system that is not transparent. Politicians expect return of their initial investment at least 12%. So 20% of 2 million,is $400,000 plus salary.
A businessman/ or a politician who use leverage by borrowing money at 12% from friends and elites, will always wanna make sure she/he will gain 20% return or better.
Any solution?
rego on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 12:11 pm
“Rego, those facts you introduce in the context of the present discussion are known as red herrings. What Erap said, who i am and what my previous choices were are not relevant to FPJ and GMA’s policy choices.
I was wrong in voting for Gloria, and the masa were correct. Anyway, Gloria won because of Hello Garci which makes my vote moot and academic. More importantly, I would not have and do not approve of cheating as the way to keep Office because as Randy David said, “Politics is society’s way of producing collectively binding decisions.†and the way of making collectively binding decisions when choosing leaders is through elections. We mess with that process at our peril.”
——————————————————-
cvj,
Thats what you get for starting a childish and irrelivant propostion. which actually a red herring by itself.
It woudl have been better if you write about somebody carrying on FPJs Food security program. Anyone of you favorite opposition figures like Ping Lacosn or Manny Villar, or even Jinngoy since it was actually Erap who push for FPJ candidacy. Since FPJ has no political expereince, almost all of FPJs Decision or ideas musthave been downloade by Erap.
Pero ala eh. You are obviously sowing hatred to anti Gloria crowd.
Or maybe you and your ilk wanted to move for the resurrection of FPJ from his grave to make is food security program become a reality.
cvj on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 1:12 pm
So you’re now blaming me for the logical fallacies that you have committed? Isn’t ‘ikaw kasi’ a form of childish behavior?
Anyway, my bringing up FPJ’s food security is not a red herring because Magdiwang was insinuating that there was no alternative path that any other leader could have been taken. I was showing him that, on the contrary, the example of FPJ shows that there was someone who had an alternative policy that emphasized food security so his excuse does not wash.
Yes, i’ve done this already as well in my blog entry last January:
http://www.cvjugo.blogspot.com/2008/01/program-of-government-for-2010-laundry.html
As you can see, Food Security is in my top two concerns.
I have not yet heard any of the mainstream politicians’ response so, in the meantime, we have to support the advocacies of parties that had the foresight to anticipate this years ago like the Anakpawis Party List which was mentioned in the bulatlat article i linked to above (April 26th, 2008 at 1:29 pm). As a start, let’s orient ourselves with the concept of ‘Food Sovereignty’ that commenter Leo advocated in Manolo’s ‘Rice-Self Sufficiency’ thread last September.
cvj on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 1:18 pm
Unfortunately for the Rotarians themselves, the 4-Way Test turns out to be ‘Joc only’. I wonder if anyone takes that club seriously.
KG on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 1:39 pm
Food Sovereignty ,food security
is like the two acceptable pronunciations of tomato and potato.
The proponent (Campesina)tries to make it different by limiting food security as having to compensate for lack of food.
Then his principles of:
food a basic human right,agrarian reform,protecting the natural resources,reorganizing food trade,ending globalization of hunger,social peace and democratic control; are not at all new; for all we know a president or a prime minister somewhere in this world have those campaign promises or state of the nation or union addresses, even before The Camposino Way.
KG on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 2:08 pm
Jude,
Aside from the tight monetary policies of IMF,masagana 99 failed because of arrearage(even before the entry of IMF sa picture).
Those arrears happen to be from collateral free loans,it was good in paper ;collaterral free loans with support and supervison from the creditors but still it went haywire and many farmers still defaulted on their loans.
Today, ang mga farmers lubog din sa utang sa traders, in the venture we are exploring( coconut oil mill), we were contemplating of dealing with farmers directly or just deal with the traders, since the situation is most farmers are lubog sa utang we might as well deal with the traders.
Baka me magsabi na naman dyan na elitist yang move,well call it what you want,and if in case you do ,I can do the same.
So far, the most prominent anti elitist proponents in this blog voice out their anti elitism for discussuion purposes only, if not then look who’s talking?
cvj on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 2:22 pm
Karl, i agree they are not new and i don’t think anyone is claiming that they are, but it is worth noting that Anakpawis Party List (and like-minded advocates) have been right all along, years ahead of the neoclassical and neo-liberal economists. So perhaps instead of the government trying to kill (or kidnap) them (because they are communist), maybe we should listen to what they have to say since events have proven that they possess the foresight in these matters.
homegirl on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 2:27 pm
CBJ naman, niloloko mo yata kami..
Why would the exchange rate be 400:1?
What law of economics are you using?
For example, ikaw, you are a billionaire… you give 1 million to your friend… why on earth would the exchange rate change at 400:1? It is merely re-distribution of wealth.
However, that 1 million to your friend, will be meaningful to him (not meaningful to you bec u have a billion and its not doing anything)..
That 1 million will be used by your friend to buy more than rice and tuyo (more than the essential goods) but he can now buy a house (good for the hardware, the carpenters, etc..)
ito ba yong multiplier effect sabi nila?
ngayon, ang effect nyan sa GDP is positive.. (remember spending by consumer increases the GDP)
How on earth would an increase in spending which will increase in GDP will weaken the currency?)
masyadon ka yatang limited as econ 101 mo…
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Homegirl, you are assuming that the exchange rate (versus foreign currencies) will remain the same. Using your example, a P300,000 laptop is possible if as a result of multiplying salaries ten times, the peso:dollar exchange rate also is multiplied by ten times e.g. 400 Pesos to 1 US Dollar (as opposed to today’s 40 pesos to 1 US Dollar), which would be the likely outcome. In the above, the dollar value of the laptop remains the same.
If hyperwage theory is correct, why stop at multiplying salaries by ten times? Why not multiply all salaries by one billion so all of us will become multi-billionaires?
I am not against increasing salaries (especially the minimum wage) as there are other reasonable basis for doing so i.e. to stimulate consumer demand. However, salaries and wages cannot get too much ahead of productivity as we would be shooting ourselves in the foot by discouraging investments that would augment our capacity to produce.
Rob' Ramos on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 2:37 pm
I was rather surprised to see cvj resurrect the ghost of FPJ in a discussion on the (supposed?) Rice Shortage. I was equally surprised to hear that FPJ pala had a program on this so good that cvj would use it as a battering ram against Gloria.
I am reminded of the efforts by the then-united Liberal Party to choose a standard bearer to support leading to the 2004 elections. In order to stave off a split between the Roco and Gloria people in the LP, the Party’s National Executive Council (NECO) set forth guidelines and procedures for evaluating the five major Presidentiables of the time.
The reason I’m rather surprised at cvj’s new weapon for use against Gloria is that, if FPJ had such a wonderful program, how come it was never mentioned by the LP leaders who made the report to the NECO? All they told us about their meeting with FPJ was… uh… medyo unprintable. There were lots of laughs, though.
In contrast, if I remember that time correctly, Ping Lacson – with his Powerpoint presentations – merited admiration from the LP delegation. At least daw, it sounded like Ping had an idea what to do.
Or maybe, elitist that I am – sabi nga ni UP N me mga taong kaming mga Atenista una daw papabaril, hehehe – I never deigned to read his platforms. Sorry, cvj, but it was hard to see past the cordon of political sharks around FPJ at the time. As someone who went up against said figures leading to PP2, you can understand my reluctance at taking FPJ seriously.
Liam Tinio on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 3:11 pm
“It is merely re-distribution of wealth.” – homegirl
lol.. please forgive me.. pero ano ka? grade 3?!
well.. assuming na walang inflation, kasi nga redistribution lang ang mangyayari, cno naman ang magtatrabaho at magpapakapagod para bigyan lang ng pera ung kaibigan ni cvj..
cvj on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 3:12 pm
I agree, a billionaire giving 1 million will not necessarily result in the exchange rate deteriorating to 400:1
I agree. In fact, this has been the basis used by traditional economist to justify why wealth distribution is a good idea.
Yes, iyan ang multiplier effect. So far so good.
Because your example of one billionaire giving one million to an individual does not reflect what will actually happen. The Philippines is not made up of one billionaire and one non-billionaire. Plug in more realistic figures in your model, one that reflects the income distribution here in the philippines and work through the numbers and you will see what i mean.
cvj on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 3:36 pm
Rob, if you did not even bother to read FPJ’s platform, could you blame anyone else but yourself for not being aware of his prioritization of Food Security? In any case, that info was already available in the web (like the one i referred to above). Unless my memory fails me, even Manolo wrote a column about it. As a Mass Comm grad, shouldn’t you be aware of these channels of information? Didn’t you say you were part of the information elite?
Liam Tinio on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 3:52 pm
@cvj
perhaps rob stopped listening or reading any of the platforms of government the nominees have presented since it has always been assumed that it is ALL lip service anyway.
Rob' Ramos on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 3:52 pm
Well, cvj, like I said, I couldn’t see past the personalities around him. There was, in my view, a disconnect between the Message and the people around the Messenger and their track records.
And being part of the “Information Elite” is the reason why I didn’t bother reading what was on his website. Anyone can access that channel of information, after all, at least anyone with a Net connection and a PC/laptop/celfone powerful enough.
Being part of the “Info Elite” means having access to channels of information BEYOND that available to Jose Public, hence one’s sometimes different position from what the surveys say is the public stand on an issue.
I also didn’t need to bother with what would obviously be PR in a public website. We in the once-united LP had direct access to the subjects themselves, were engaging them in direct dialog; what for reading stuff PR writers like me would put in a website or fliers designed to convince people to buy the product? I was getting firsthand information already, why bother with the spinned stuff?
The Ca t on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 4:01 pm
the problem with people is that they believe everything written by foreigners with titles attached to their names.
This is an article from BBC written by a professor of Cornell University.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7365798.stm#map
Are there food riots in the Philippines? Does queueing for NFA rice considered as riot?
I’ve e-mailed a query as to when and where the food riots in the Philippines happened. There was no response. Does he even know where the Philippines is?
Were there really food riots in the PHilippines which were not reported in the news which I missed ?
DUH.
Liam Tinio on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 4:11 pm
^
that only goes to prove how ignorant and equally misinformed the foreigners are with regards to the Philippines and vice versa..
ever ready to exaggerate and practice intellectual ignorance just to get a good news..
me using high fallutin words is an example..
nash on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 4:23 pm
@bencard
are ye listening??? there is nothing wrong with being a lawyer…but clearly a lawyer is not qualified for a DA portfolio unless he has expertise in that field.
atienza is a moron! he should have said “Sorry Madame president, I cannot be DENR secretary, I am not qualified…”
cvj on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 4:26 pm
OK, my memory failed me. Manolo did not write the column i was referring to, but he endorsed a column written [from an elitist viewpoint] in Today:
http://www.quezon.ph/36/marathon-eating/
The above shows that Breakfast, lunch, dinner was indeed a centerpiece of FPJ’s platform. It was taken seriously enough by your fellow elitist writer at the Today that he took time to ridicule FPJ for having such a platform. Manolo also took it seriously enough to feature it in his blog, unless of course you believe that our host was also an [unwitting] part of the spin.
As for your exposition (at 3:52pm above) on being part of the “Info Elite”, that is a valuable insider’s view from a card carrying member of the Liberal Party. This will be handy come 2010. Thanks for that.
cvj on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 4:30 pm
Sorry, the above is addressed to Rob Ramos.
nash on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 4:32 pm
@bencard
and PS. If you want an example of a non-laywer who is not qualified for his post – Department of Energy under Angelo Reyes. Isa pang moron in his post. He may be a cunning general but what does he know about Energy?? aber? he is just a political appointee.
These portfolios DENR, DA, DoE are crucial posts in times of food and energy shortages.
anthony scalia on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 5:43 pm
mlq3,
what makes you say that FPJ didn’t cheat?
cvj on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 5:58 pm
anthony, check wikipedia. There’s a fallacy for what you just wrote (at 5:43pm).
anthony scalia on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 5:59 pm
Bert,
noted
anthony scalia on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 6:07 pm
cvj,
do it for me. please. since you think it will help me greatly.
saka its for you na rin: theres also a fallacy for your repeated and ‘life’ conclusion that gloria cheated solely on the basis of ‘Hello Garci’
for sure you’d find it in wikipedia. chances are, its in the same entry as the one you intend for me.
homegirl on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 6:16 pm
Nako naman CVJ, mag hanap ka pa ng examples.. ikaw na lang kaya maghanap
Basic math theory yan eh.. Set theory..
One billionaire = set of businesses usually the big ones
one non-billionaire = set of all employees
at hwag kang mag sabi na small business will be wiped out.. bec even the lowest maids will have the purchasing power already… bakit wala bang fish vendor sa singapore, walang bang newspaper vendor sa Japan…
hindi hyperwage theory ito ha.. gamit lang simple common sense…
………..>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Because your example of one billionaire giving one million to an individual does not reflect what will actually happen. The Philippines is not made up of one billionaire and one non-billionaire. Plug in more realistic figures in your model, one that reflects the income distribution here in the philippines and work through the numbers and you will see what i mean.
mlq3 on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 6:21 pm
scalia, i firmly believe he himself did not order any cheating, and did not put any plans in place to cheat, and i’d actually go as far as strongly believing he felt his popularity and ability to connect with the masses made it not a question of cheating, but preventing his being cheated. as for the people around him who certainly have their fair share of knowing how to commit fraud, they lacked the means or the coordination to do so except perhaps in their individual bailiwicks -though i think they may even have been conceited enough to think they’d swamp aside those problems in the manner that estrada’s victory was massive enough to make cheating impossible in 1998.
by the time they realized it would be close race, they couldn’t mobilize cheating even if they wanted -and the palace was far ahead in that game.
you have to credit fpj with running, on his part, a clean campaign. his critics never give him enough credit (his wife, too) for actually calming his supporters when they lost in 2004 and when the hello garci issue broke in 2005.
cvj on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 6:30 pm
homegirl, even within the same approach, the outcome is dependent on the inputs, specifically, (1) the income of those giving the salary, (2) the amount to be given to the hyperwage recipients, (3) the number of givers (i.e. employers) and (4) the number of recipients (i.e. maids). I’m asking if you can give something more reflective of our actual situation than your 1 billionaire giving 1 million to another person? Also, in your proposal, is it necessary for the maid to be paid by the employer or can the salary for the maid come from someone else (i.e. the government or another rich billionaire)?
Bert on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 7:17 pm
“the problem with people is that they believe everything written by foreigners with titles attached to their names.”-The Feline
Now, now, felines are known for their discriminating taste for food, that’s why they’re not prone to poisoning.
Some feline, specially one who is very pre-occupied and up-to-date in global news, sometimes can be also very discriminating in what news to believe.
The problem , it seems, is that news from Honduras, or Haiti, is more credible than domestic news, even if headlines in the local news also showed heavily-armed soldiers guarding rice queues.
“And the UN was not about talking the PHilippines. It is talking about HOnduras where a big platoon of military and police guards the government for fear of riot.”-The Cat
leytenian on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 7:58 pm
Rice crisis in our country is known to have the highest probability of occurence. ( read Manolo’s agriculture- growth for whom- 4rth quarter of 2006) This data was an obvious domestic risk. Identifying risk can be the basis of creating an effective operational procedure that must be prioritize and provided budget. Our leaders also may lack the identification ability or simply, market speculation for their own short term gains. The surplus in our GDP for the past 2-3 years will not be enough to finance the upcoming risk and liabilities that our leaders have made.
So who is to blame? That data was 2006. Our farmers could have been harvesting and even investing by now. Profit from oversupply could have balance deficits from oil and other expenses in keeping the farm.
Easy said than done but it remains obvious that current administration remain to practice what the previous administration has been practicing. I also have a feeling that future administration cannot perform the same because of accumulating and increasing public debts.
the buying of votes example will further motivate the upper and lower house to work not for the benefit of our people but to get their initial investment back. The main reason that they are also highly motivated because all of them know that financial transactions are the least subject exposed by the media.
UP n student on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 8:07 pm
to homegirl: The barrier to HyperWage is not on the demand-side (the ones who can use the pay raise); the barrier is on the supply, the ones-who-will-have-to-pay. The argument against HyperWage is “hindi ko kaya, hindi iyan ang budget ko!”. And even those who don’t have to pay out of their pockets — governors and mayors — are not doing their version of HyperWage. Evidence, no one has ordered to HyperWage with a P2,000 raise the salaries of their government workers who earn less than P20,000 a month.
The Ca t on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 8:49 pm
This made my otherwise boring, day. Mwahaha
The Ca t on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 8:57 pm
Baka yon encrusted ng diamond.
mwahaha.
go girl. i am entertained.
BrianB on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 8:58 pm
“actually, BrianB, I would rather you tell me how you match the survey — a portrait of how the Filipino poor have defined how they choose the candidate to vote for —to the people getting elected, e.g. the current crop in the Senate and in Congress.
April 28th, 2008 at 8:33 am”
UP n,
Cheating, lack of choices, marketing… You repeat a falsehood often enough and it becomes true…
UP n student on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 9:11 pm
Here is a cut-and-paste:
….”Everyone is out there protecting their own right now,” said Joachim von Braun, director general of the District-based International Food Policy Research Institute. “And that isn’t the way globalization is meant to work.”
All around, food-producing countries are barring the doors to foreign trade. Rice prices shot to a record high after Indonesia stopped its farmers from selling the grain abroad. While its farmers and ranchers want to take advantage of the high prices that Europe and Japan want to pay for their grain and meat, the Argentine government raised soybean and sunflower export taxes to as much as 44 percent to halt the food outflow. Russia has quadrupled wheat-export taxes to 40 percent. Kazakhstan, one of the world’s biggest wheat exporters, halted foreign sales altogether.
At the same time, import-dependent countries that can afford the higher prices are hoarding. Wealthy Singapore is stockpiling rice. Malaysia is creating a new government agency to stockpile foodstuffs.
UP n student on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 9:19 pm
And does anyone have more details on the lease of some one million hectares of Philippine land to China’s Jilin Fuhua Agricultural Science and Technology Development Co., Ltd. (Fuhua Co.)?
I would hope that the lease requires China/Fuhua Co to turn over 5% of the farm produce to the Philippines. AND, in case of food emergencies, that the Philippines gets 20% of the farm-produce.
jakcast on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 9:24 pm
‘import-dependent countries that can afford the higher prices are hoarding.’ -UP n Student
Pagcor should spend part of its earnings to stockpile foodstuffs. Rice is right!
The Ca t on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 9:30 pm
The Ca t on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 9:40 pm
The economist-wannabe should know that pricing of the product does not only consider the inflation index.
Prices of high tech products tend to decline in the later years of the product life because:
1. The research and development costs spent for the product
must have been already fully amortized. Some companies amortize the costs within 5 years.
2. as innovations are introduced, more efficient production lessen the overhead
3. promo for the launching of the products are usually higher during the early years.
So the laptop that i bought for $3,000 several years ago, can now be bought for less than $1,000.
What makes the price higher is because of the new features they introduce in the product. the inflation is just a tiny percentage of the price.
DUH.
The Ca t on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 9:54 pm
It is not only Lito Lapid who does not undertand the basic financial data. Most of the legislators don’t.
It is not their function to understand and analyze financial data. They have the budget to hire staff that will do this for them. That’s the reason why these congressmen, senators have their staff which should be composed of people who have different fields of specialization.
The function of the lawmaker is to make the recommendations and research output into motions by sponsoring the legislations.
The sad fact is that most of the staff are relatives and political supporters whose qualifications are blood and polical affiliations.
But even those who understand the basic financial data do not make a good lawmaker.
Will you ?
cvj on Mon, 28th Apr 2008 10:21 pm
Ca t (at 9:40pm), as i told homegirl, the increase is in peso price of the laptop would be due to the deterioration in the exchange rate i.e. from 40 pesos to 1 dollar to 400 pesos to 1 dollar. The dollar price remains the same. (I am assuming that the laptop is imported.)
UP n student on Tue, 29th Apr 2008 1:17 am
GRAIN (an international non-governmental organisation (NGO) in the area of sustainable management and use of agricultural biodiversity) describes the Memo-of-Understanding between GMA administration and China/Fuqua as … a US$3.83-billion deal with the Fuhua Group to set aside over 1 million hectares of lands for the production of ethanol feedstocks for export to China.
The project is for energy-security, not food-security. The ethanol feedstocks are intended for China.
—————-
GRAIN also reports of a US$1-billion biofuel deal with Biogreen Energy (Malaysia) for an agrofuel refinery and 1 million hectare jatropha plantation, as well as a US$1.3-billion deal with NRG Chemical Engineering Pte (UK), for the construction of a biodiesel refinery and two ethanol distilleries, and a US$600-million investment in jatropha plantations, which will cover over 1 million hectares, mainly in Palawan and Mindanao.
UP n student on Tue, 29th Apr 2008 1:35 am
The Palawan/jatropha plantation deal seems to be continuation of a new practice — tropical forests are being cleared for the planting of jatropha.
UP n student on Tue, 29th Apr 2008 1:36 am
…continuation of a growing practice… tropical forests being cleared
leytenian on Tue, 29th Apr 2008 3:49 am
The cat.
“It is not only Lito Lapid who does not undertand the basic financial data. Most of the legislators don’t.
It is not their function to understand and analyze financial data. They have the budget to hire staff that will do this for them. That’s the reason why these congressmen, senators have their staff which should be composed of people who have different fields of specialization.”
In order to hire the right staff, the manager must also understand it. How could he manage if he doesn’t have a degree in management…It is still part of his duty.
Asking me if I can manage?
you bet. I can… it’s my skills,my experience, my educational background. but sadly to say. I’m not interested to work in an environment where I will be sorrounded with corrupt people and secondly , politicians in the Philippines does not make good money unless corrupt.I cannot live a life like that.
leytenian on Tue, 29th Apr 2008 4:01 am
laptop issue: google search price elasticity of demand, new product innovations and competitions.
UP n student on Tue, 29th Apr 2008 5:32 am
leytenian: None of the managers I have reported to, and none of the managers who have reported to me, have degrees in management.
leytenian on Tue, 29th Apr 2008 5:57 am
UP n student:
wow…no wonder. skills, experience and educations must fit the job descriptions. uuwi pa naman ako. baka i will just apply as a teacher. lol. thanks
jude on Tue, 29th Apr 2008 9:56 am
“Aside from the tight monetary policies of IMF,masagana 99 failed because of arrearage(even before the entry of IMF sa picture).
Those arrears happen to be from collateral free loans,it was good in paper ;collaterral free loans with support and supervison from the creditors but still it went haywire and many farmers still defaulted on their loans.” – KG
True. That’s why it takes tremendous effort and political will to help farmers. I believe only government has the financial and coercive power to do that.
That’s also why, under our system, I cannot blame banks, specially privately-owned ones, for having a pawnshop mentality. Why risk money lending to poor farmers when Treasury Bills give better and less risky returns?
Government has the responsibility to make agriculture viable. But government should construe programs that are not just based on giveaways. Support, monitoring and supervision should be closely conducted. That’s why I must keep repeating that it isn’t easy. But, if there were more effort, better planning and more determination, it could be done. Even if, I must admit, it is difficult under our freewheeling political system where programs are only geared toward making a favorable impact for the next election.
*******************************************************
“jude, actually bicol’s an interesting case of how dynasties refresh themselves. the big shot was luis villafuerte who hasn’t been getting along with his son, among other reasons, because by all accounts the son is more dyanamic and forward-thinking. if i’m not mistaken they were actually openly at loggerheads for a while.” – mlq3
While it may be true that some of our political dynasties have found ways to reinvent themselves to make themselves more palatable to the media and the public, it is just another way to retain their predatory hold on power.
Just as the mafia sees their underworld activities as a family enterprise, the ruling classes see politics as a family business. And, as is the case in family businesses, some are more creative and innovative than others. There are Michael Corleones who come out of Mafia families.
But despite the smooth facade and deodorized image, it doesn’t change the fact that dynasties use their place in society to entrench themselves and to enrich themselves further. The devil, after all, can wear Prada. But would that make him less of a devil?
anthony scalia on Tue, 29th Apr 2008 12:54 pm
mlq3,
****gulp**** i may have to agree
when i say ‘FPJ cheated’ i meant ‘FPJ’s camp cheated’
thats the key phrase – “their individual bailiwicks”
you’re speculating
for sure that did them in. my goodness walang sinabi si FPJ kay Erap since Erap is much more experienced: Mayor, Senator, Vice-President.
homegirl on Tue, 29th Apr 2008 3:12 pm
Wala akong sinabing agree ako sa hyperwage … walang kasama ang hyperwage sa mga discussions ko.. simple common sense lang..
1. CVJ said if we raise the wages of maids from P2T to P20T (x10) the automatically, the exchange rate will become x10 (from 1:40 will become 1:400).
Sa column ni Manolo, ang bigas sa Pinas P36/kg, ang bigas sa Hong Kong P37/kg, paano nangyari yan? Ang cost of labor doon (P28T daw ang janitor) is very high ilang thousand lang sa Pinas.. if we follow CVJ logic, dapat same multiplier and cost of rice doon.. imported pa naman lahat… !!!!
Sabi ko di yata common sense yan.. and so I gave an example of wealth distribution from a billionaire to non-billionaire para klaro kay CVJ.
I am very very happy that CVJ admitted he is wrong and has acccepted that x10 increase in wages (or purchasing power) hindi pala automatic x10 ang exchange rate or inflation..
(read his agreement above)
Salamat CVJ for accepting correction to you false statement.
2. Challenge naman ni CVJ to find such a person. Sabi to set theory gamitin mo.. okay na naman sya..
3. Ngayon, what is the mechanism of re-distribution of wealth from rich companies to poor workers? Alam nyo ba ang Globe Telecom yata has 80% gross margin?.. Nabasa ko yan sa inquirer..
Sabi ng iba, taxation is the mechanism.. so far naman, it has been proven ineffective.. for the last 25 to 30 years.. ang gap ng rich at poor grabe.. (we have 29 million poor compared to 26 million 23 years ago?)
Sabi naman ni Bentulan, wage increase is the mechanism. at saka tax deductible naman lahat ng wages di ba?
4. Whatever is the mechanism di ko problema yan..
5. At puede ba CVj mag-research ka na lang. tanong ng tanong ka sa akin.. hi ako puede mag spoon feed sa yo.
Basahim muna yong libro.. binasa ko pero di ko maintindihan ..
but, common sense lang ginamit ko ..
tapos ako ha..
doon ka na mag-reklama sa author ng idea na yan…
…………..>>>>>>>>>>
homegirl, even within the same approach, the outcome is dependent on the inputs, specifically, (1) the income of those giving the salary, (2) the amount to be given to the hyperwage recipients, (3) the number of givers (i.e. employers) and (4) the number of recipients (i.e. maids). I’m asking if you can give something more reflective of our actual situation than your 1 billionaire giving 1 million to another person? Also, in your proposal, is it necessary for the maid to be paid by the employer or can the salary for the maid come from someone else (i.e. the government or another rich billionaire)?
cvj on Tue, 29th Apr 2008 3:30 pm
Sige homegirl, salamat sa mga paliwanag mo. As far as distribution of wealth from rich to poor, pareho tayo ng panig. Hindi lang tayo siguro magkasundo sa paraan.
The Ca t on Tue, 29th Apr 2008 5:00 pm
So the Senate and the COngress should be abolished because most of them are lawyers and do not have management degree.
Your opinion reveals that of a rank and file mentality.
The Ca t on Tue, 29th Apr 2008 5:03 pm
In coming up with a theory, even the assumptions should be realistic. Yours’ is so far out that no one would take you seriously.
The Ca t on Tue, 29th Apr 2008 5:05 pm
Don’t venture on principles that you do not know very well. Sometimes, it is best to keep quiet.
cvj on Tue, 29th Apr 2008 5:37 pm
Ca t, going by your line of reasoning, laptops bought in the Philippines are usually imported, so it is realistic to make such an assumption.
The Ca t on Tue, 29th Apr 2008 7:28 pm
By adding as many zeros to the price of the laptop as you the same zeros to the wages.
Even my abacus would not add that up. mwehehe
leytenian on Tue, 29th Apr 2008 7:50 pm
another benigno here? i so love my own people.
The Ca t on Tue, 29th Apr 2008 10:01 pm
Read the archives, you’re getting funny and ridiculous.
cvj on Tue, 29th Apr 2008 11:50 pm
Ca t, i don’t think the abacus is the problem.
Bencard on Wed, 30th Apr 2008 12:34 am
if fpj’s alleged plan was that good and brilliant, why was it not adopted, nor advocated, by anyone who wants to ’shine’ politically. did he have a copyright on it or something that nobody is talking about it after his demise, except of course cvj?
cvj on Wed, 30th Apr 2008 1:34 am
Bencard, you’re giving the mainstream politicians too much credit in terms of their ability to discern ‘brilliant’ ideas, while ignoring the voices in the wilderness who have been sounding the alarm for years. Perhaps those who wanted to ’shine’ politically did not have the foresight to anticipate events unlike the Anakpawis Party-list and related advocates for food security (and food soverignty).
Bencard on Wed, 30th Apr 2008 4:40 am
cvj, isn’t the reason why those little “voices in the wilderness” were largely ignored was that they were too simplistic and primitive? almusal, tanghalian at hapunan are not the end-all and be-all of filipino life – not even of the masa. this aboriginal objective had long been gone from the average pinoy thinking. the proverbial ‘house and lot’, a ‘fridge’, electricity, running water, sometimes a workable jeep or car, radio or t.v., an occasional movie or trip to the city, ‘malling, among other things, have long become part of the pinoy’s basic needs, apart from the need for food.
fpj and his believers have simple solutions to complex problems. the masa may be poor but they are not stupid, nor with stone-age mentality.
leytenian on Wed, 30th Apr 2008 5:09 am
bencard:the masa may be poor but they are not stupid, nor with stone-age mentality.
true , therefore our leaders lack the knowledge and the masa are educated not stupid. no wonder it’s hard for them to manage because the people are smart enough to disagree nowadays. It could also mean that our current leaders are not aware of its own human resources. who do you think has the stone-age mentality?
Bencard on Wed, 30th Apr 2008 5:55 am
leytenean, perhaps i should modify my statement. the masa were not stupid to buy into fpj’s simplistic “almusal, tanghalian at hapunan” brand of economics. i cannot say the same thing for their choice of erap in 1998, or for electing trillianes, jamby, jinggoy, revilla or lapid as senators.
jude on Wed, 30th Apr 2008 7:39 am
About “voices in the wilderness” and their “alarms”, it’s a broken record that has been playing for ever since I can remember. Maybe even way before I was even born. The alarmist tale that the Philippines is a social volcano that may soon explode was often mouthed by my sociology teachers and several priests, ever since I was in grade school and all the way to college. I had the highest respect for these people and, at that time, I believed them.
Looking back, these mentors must either have overestimated the capacity of our countrymen to strive for change and a better life or they must have underestimated the capacity of our countrymen to endure endless insults by our politicians to their intelligence and dignity. Matagal na tugtugin yan, ‘la namang nangyayari kundi puro daldal, tulad ni cvj.
Shalim on Wed, 30th Apr 2008 8:30 am
According to the discussions of homegirl and CVJ, i can see that hyperwage theory’s proposition or hypothesis is correct pala: There is no 1:1 correspondence between wages and prices of goods. therefore, increasing wages sa DH from P2,000 to P20,000 (which is `10x) does not result into the same 10x increase in prices nor does it result into 10x depreciation in currency (1:400 exchange rate). There is some truth to Hyperwage, in this case, because there is a positive net effect in favor of the maids. Tama nga naman, based on our actual knowledge of reality.
‘Cat’ is right, some assumptions have to be based on reality. The 1:400 scenario of CVJ was not based on reality.
I heard that GOCC’s pay their janitors or similar positions more than P20,000 already (like GSIS). Is this true?
cvj on Wed, 30th Apr 2008 9:14 am
Shalim, what i told homegirl above (at April 28th, 2008, 3:12 pm) is that given her specific example of a billionaire giving one million to another person, the exchange rate will not necessary deteriorate to 400:1. However, her scenario does not reflect the actual case in the Philippines. You have to plug in and model the effects of a 10x wage increase with more realistic inputs as i mentioned (at April 28th, 2008 at 6:30 pm) above.
It is a well known principle in economics that if you hold productivity constant, and if there is no excess production capacity, there is a positive correspondence between wages and the prices of goods. This is because demand outstrips the capacity to produce and you have more money chasing after fewer products.
What the author of Hyperwage is contending is that the ratio is closer to 10:1 (ratio of wage increase to price increase) rather than 1:1 because he believes there is a limit to hyperinflation for third world countries. Our experience during the last days of the Japanese occupation does not bear this out.
cvj on Wed, 30th Apr 2008 9:42 am
There seems to be a confusion on what constitutes an assumption. In the above, the 400:1 exchange rate is not the assumption, it’s the result given certain assumptions. In this case, the assumption (which reflects reality btw) from where the result derives is this – laptops are imported [aka dollars are needed to import laptops into the Philippines].
leytenian on Wed, 30th Apr 2008 9:47 am
bencard: i agree.. we should just move on and find solutions for our future. the past was traumatic enough. i can’t look back. sorry it’s just my personality.
shalim on Wed, 30th Apr 2008 3:24 pm
Ha ha ha ha… very funny… It’s no use arguing with you CVJ. Apparently, you don’t know the word ‘induction.’ You’ve been caught in the act frothing in the mouth with a 1:400 scenario that you yourself have agreed to as not possible, in one case, and certainly not possible in other cases. You have been given an example by homegirl about big businesses giving more purchasing power to the workers using increase of wages as the mechanism for such. You still don’t understand and you respond with incoherent statements of inappropriate economic principles.
You want more examples? Every Dec, the entire labor payroll costs of the companies are doubled!!!!! Does that result in “doubling” of prices of goods and services?????????
1:1 ba ang correspondence?
Think beyond the tip of your nose. That’s why I said, homegirl has driven home a point.
But let’s move on. It’s no use arguing with a person who does not understand the rules of deduction and induction.
cvj on Wed, 30th Apr 2008 3:53 pm
Shalim, during December, the prices don’t double because the retailers have already stocked up for the expected increase in consumer demand (due to the Christmas bonus). This is a different scenario from the tenfold increase in salaries without a corresponding increase in production capacity.
Perhaps i owe you (and Ca t, and homegirl) a further clarification on the 400:1 (among other things) so i’ll line that up for a future blog entry (in my own blog) one of these days when time permits. I’ll let you know when that’s done.
anthony scalia on Wed, 30th Apr 2008 7:33 pm
to all ‘Hyperwage’ discussants:
baka lang you might be interested in a discussion of hyperwage by a hyperwage proponent:
http://streetstrategist.weblogs.us/hyperwage-theory/
(napakahaba lang nga – up to part 33!)
baka makatulong lang sa discussion nyo
shalim on Wed, 30th Apr 2008 10:12 pm
CVJ I think your reasoning is wrong. You rely too much on supply and demand as basis for prices.
That is not so. The prices don’t double during Xmas because the laptops would then be P60T (from P30T, 2x).
This would be a ridiculous double than the world market price for that model is worth only P30T in Singapore or Taiwan or USA.
Which is the basis of all your debate with homegirl and cat above.
Your analysis of what is happening during Xmas double wage is wrong. That’s why Homegirl and Cat couldn’t imagine a P300T laptop.
As you can see CVJ, your blind faith in supply and demand can kill you (that if you double the purchasing power, you will double the demand, therefore your double the selling prices.)
This is a wrong logic.
Have you heard of shifting of curves? You assume that the prices move along the same curve. You are not aware that in many cases the curves themselves changes.
You cannot just rely on your two semesters of economics to explain the real world of economics.
Read Manolo’s column again. Since HKG wages for janitor is say 8x than Filipino janitor, then since our rice is P32, the price of rice in HKG shuld be 32×8 = i dont know how much that is… (P256/kg i think)
yet the price of rice in HKG is just P37 to P40 per kilo… not P256/kg.
Pagisipan mo yan CVJ.
Regarding your point that ten-fold is untenable. You are out of touch with the background of the Hyperwage which, as I understand it to be, is to increase the purchasing power of the workers. The ten-fold is simply one reference figure that illustrates the principle.
If ten-fold, is not for you. Puede na doubleee lang muna? 100% increase (2x)?
quote from CVJ:
“Shalim, during December, the prices don’t double because the retailers have already stocked up for the expected increase in consumer demand (due to the Christmas bonus). This is a different scenario from the tenfold increase in salaries without a corresponding increase in production capacity.”
cvj on Fri, 2nd May 2008 3:03 pm
anthony, thanks for the link.
shalim, rather than simply mentioning the ‘shifting of curves‘, you would have to explain how that would help your point.
I agree with the goal of increasing the purchasing power of workers but the basis has to be solid and not on some cranky idea. We already have traditional neoclassical economic theory as well as some competing heterodox economic theories that can be used to justify the increase in the purchasing power of workers. These have the benefit of standing on more solid ground than Hyperwage.
As in medicine, the dosage matters. Taking ten tablets can have a different effect to two. That’s why we cannot simply take any reference figure and assume the effects will be the same. At the very least, we have to run it through a model (or at the very least thought experiments based on clearly stated economic principles and assumptions).
Again, we have to run that through economic models to determine the possible effects.
leytenian on Tue, 6th May 2008 10:10 pm
The cat,
“that the government bonds are safer in terms of risk because the government guarantees the payment”
true, that’s why our government are in debts because it guarantee payments to bond holders even if the projects did not result to positive outcome,revenue,profit,or excess. we have a budget deficit. when revenue cannot service the debts payable ( due or maturing) then the government can issue more bonds ( debt financing) to cover payments. When bonds are sold , it is added as cash to Cash flow statement but will become liability in our balance sheet. When liabilities exceeds assets, you know what’s going to happen.
when our government keeps issuing more bonds or in layman’s term ( print more money) , this will increase the money supply and will result to Inflation.
If we can print no more money due to risk of inflation, the government will have a tendendy to borrow using assets as collateral. Spratley deal may be relevant to why we borrowed money from China.
That’s why a push for financial transparency is very crucial or else ,we filipinos will be burried in debts.