Two discouraging signals
The Inquirer editorial yesterday (Queendom for a horse) took a critical look at AFP chief’s term extended.The editorial says the possibility that Esperon will serve longer than an additional three months should be considered. The editorial cites the following laws and decrees: Presidential Decree 1638 as amended by Presidential Decree 1650, and Republic Act 8186 as amended by Republic Act 9188, as well as the provisions of the Constitution (since Esperon term extension possible only in case of war – Palace). It also makes reference to GMA’s speech during the AFP Change of Command Ceremony, November 28, 2002.
Today, the news is Esperon: 4 months ahead may be bloody: General expects stiff NPA resistance. Whether this is posturing or Esperon’s real intention, remains to be seen. But if he really does believe the AFP is capable of liquidating the NPA in the hills, what would be his basis for this?
Randy David gives us a clue. In The tragedy of the rural poor, says something unprecedented is going on. We’re used to the sight of people moving to the city from the province, attracted by the glitter and opportunity of life in the big city. David says what’s going on today, though, is that people are moving to the city not because they are attracted by opportunity, but because they are fleeing the collapse of rural life in the provinces. There is a difference, he says, and it is troubling -an unintended consequence, he says, of defective land reform. This reminds me of an assertion by the economist Mike Alba who pointed out no one is quite sure, because the government mechanisms for monitoring it have broken down, of how much formerly productive agricultural land has been converted to real estate and other purposes. He also points out, and if he knows it the military knows it, too, that efforts to organize the peasantry are at their lowest ebb since the 40′s and 50′s.
On a related note, see Solita Monsod’s Two challenges, where she says the ranks of the truly poor have shrunk while most Filipinos have become slightly poorer across all classes.
Politically, the weekend had news that Arroyo douses plot vs Speaker via phone call — Ermita and that as Congress resumes session, GMA tells Rainbow Coalition to stand by JdV. The scuttlebutt, however, is that the changes in the executive and legislative departments are scheduled for later this year. Among the targets are Lakas stalwarts. Supposedly Executive Secretary Ermita will finally be eased out around May, to be replaced by the current DILG Secretary, Puno. Speaker de Venecia, on the other hand, will be removed from the speakership near the end of the year. Meanwhile, attempts to amend the Constitution will gather pace in the middle of the year.
Now this is what interests me about the other big weekend news, Melo named Comelec chair. His appointment, to my mind, can’t be evaluated properly until the other presidential appointments to the Comelec are announced. And even then, it all depends on whether the administration will then send signals it wants stability until 2010 or will pursue constitutional amendments aggressively. If it pursues amendments then the first task of the new Comelec Chairman and the new commissioners will be to preside over a plebiscite that will be manned by the same mid and lower level Comelec people tasked with the 2004 and 2007 elections. Which means individuals like Christian Monsod, groups like the PPCRV, and even the Cardinal Archbishop of Manila (who strongly backs the candidacy of Howie Calleja, for example, for a Comelec commissioner slot) might find themselves quite disappointed with their nominees, after Appointment of Melo as COMELEC head welcomed. But if constitutional amendments don’t take off, there is room for moderate optimism for 2010.
My column for today is Individualistic yet part of the whole. One of the books I mentioned, Profiles Encourage, is reviewed by Rodel Rodis. See also two commentaries in the papers: Filipino Diaspora as a Form of Revolt and Going beyond ‘Same same’. You may also want to participate in Janette Toral’s Important Issues on Philippines 2010 Election.
Speaking of elections, overseas, Obama’s big win keeps his hopes alive. Interesting reading in Slate’s The Super Tuesday Strategy Guide.
Concerning the prospects of an American recession affecting our part of the world, see Asia Won’t Get Away Clean in The Asia Sentinel, as well as Live it Up, Asia! (which doesn’t apply to us).
And for future discussion: Parag Khanna’s Waving Goodbye to Hegemony:
At best, America’s unipolar moment lasted through the 1990s, but that was also a decade adrift. The post-cold-war “peace dividend†was never converted into a global liberal order under American leadership. So now, rather than bestriding the globe, we are competing  and losing  in a geopolitical marketplace alongside the world’s other superpowers: the European Union and China. This is geopolitics in the 21st century: the new Big Three. Not Russia, an increasingly depopulated expanse run by Gazprom.gov; not an incoherent Islam embroiled in internal wars; and not India, lagging decades behind China in both development and strategic appetite. The Big Three make the rules  their own rules  without any one of them dominating. And the others are left to choose their suitors in this post-American world.
The more we appreciate the differences among the American, European and Chinese worldviews, the more we will see the planetary stakes of the new global game. Previous eras of balance of power have been among European powers sharing a common culture. The cold war, too, was not truly an “East-West†struggle; it remained essentially a contest over Europe. What we have today, for the first time in history, is a global, multicivilizational, multipolar battle.
In Europe’s capital, Brussels, technocrats, strategists and legislators increasingly see their role as being the global balancer between America and China. Jorgo Chatzimarkakis, a German member of the European Parliament, calls it “European patriotism.†The Europeans play both sides, and if they do it well, they profit handsomely. It’s a trend that will outlast both President Nicolas Sarkozy of France, the self-described “friend of America,†and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, regardless of her visiting the Crawford ranch. It may comfort American conservatives to point out that Europe still lacks a common army; the only problem is that it doesn’t really need one. Europeans use intelligence and the police to apprehend radical Islamists, social policy to try to integrate restive Muslim populations and economic strength to incorporate the former Soviet Union and gradually subdue Russia. Each year European investment in Turkey grows as well, binding it closer to the E.U. even if it never becomes a member. And each year a new pipeline route opens transporting oil and gas from Libya, Algeria or Azerbaijan to Europe. What other superpower grows by an average of one country per year, with others waiting in line and begging to join?
With the new Big Three, the author then says the task is to identify the “Second World”:
To really understand how quickly American power is in decline around the world, I’ve spent the past two years traveling in some 40 countries in the five most strategic regions of the planet  the countries of the second world. They are not in the first-world core of the global economy, nor in its third-world periphery. Lying alongside and between the Big Three, second-world countries are the swing states that will determine which of the superpowers has the upper hand for the next generation of geopolitics. From Venezuela to Vietnam and Morocco to Malaysia, the new reality of global affairs is that there is not one way to win allies and influence countries but three: America’s coalition (as in “coalition of the willingâ€Â), Europe’s consensus and China’s consultative styles. The geopolitical marketplace will decide which will lead the 21st century…
Second-world countries are distinguished from the third world by their potential: the likelihood that they will capitalize on a valuable commodity, a charismatic leader or a generous patron. Each and every second-world country matters in its own right, for its economic, strategic or diplomatic weight, and its decision to tilt toward the United States, the E.U. or China has a strong influence on what others in its region decide to do. Will an American nuclear deal with India push Pakistan even deeper into military dependence on China? Will the next set of Arab monarchs lean East or West? The second world will shape the world’s balance of power as much as the superpowers themselves will.
As for our part of the world,
America may seek Muslim allies for its image and the “war on terror,†but these same countries seem also to be part of what Samuel Huntington called the “Confucian-Islamic connection.†What is more, China is pulling off the most difficult of superpower feats: simultaneously maintaining positive ties with the world’s crucial pairs of regional rivals: Venezuela and Brazil, Saudi Arabia and Iran, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, India and Pakistan. At this stage, Western diplomats have only mustered the wherewithal to quietly denounce Chinese aid policies and value-neutral alliances, but they are far from being able to do much of anything about them.
This applies most profoundly in China’s own backyard, Southeast Asia. Some of the most dynamic countries in the region Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam are playing the superpower suitor game with admirable savvy. Chinese migrants have long pulled the strings in the region’s economies even while governments sealed defense agreements with the U.S. Today, Malaysia and Thailand still perform joint military exercises with America but also buy weapons from, and have defense treaties with, China, including the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation by which Asian nations have pledged nonaggression against one another. (Indonesia, a crucial American ally during the cold war, has also been forming defense ties with China.) As one senior Malaysian diplomat put it to me, without a hint of jest, “Creating a community is easy among the yellow and the brown but not the white.†Tellingly, it is Vietnam, because of its violent histories with the U.S. and China, which is most eager to accept American defense contracts (and a new Intel microchip plant) to maintain its strategic balance. Vietnam, like most of the second world, doesn’t want to fall into any one superpower’s sphere of influence.
It’s a lengthy article but well worth a read.
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To me, INFLATION is the better explanation for why FIES shows that the food expenses of the bottom 30 percent increased from almost 50 percent of their total incomes to almost 60 percent ( as opposed to that the poor’s income has decreased). As Monsod said, food expenses are income-inelastic. It is also why the expenditure for an addiction — tobacco increased by 50% for the bottom 30%.
The Obama-Nation Baby!!! Yeah!!!!
We are a people with short memories.Yes, our country’s political system sucks. But our culture sucks as well. And one of the ways it sucks the most is in its failure to teach people reasoning, cause-and-effect… and history.
Equalizer: I was wondering about that myself — this “failure to teach”. From your understanding of things, is this a failure of parents to teach their children, failure by the elementary or high school teachers, or failure by college/university professors?
In Venezuela, the same rural to urban migration, for largely the same reasons, eventually resulted in 90 percent of their population living in cities.
BTW, with Khanna’s new meaning given to ‘Second World’, GMA can say that she was correct when she said sometime last year that the Philippines should aim for ‘Second World’ status. (Her clairvoyance is uncanny. Maybe that tells us that, with her, we’re dealing with unearthly powers.)
Hi MLQ3. Thank you for the mention. Look forward to your insights. That project was basically inspired by your iBlog3 talk last year challenging bloggers to participate in the political discussion, sharing insights.
“And one of the ways it sucks the most is in its failure to teach people reasoning, cause-and-effect… and history.”
Wow, Equalizer. reverse racism at work here.
My opinion and I have tried putting it forward several times in this forum is that Filipinos are too peace-loving. Given pathologically irrational leaders and a dominant religion which dignifies them with forgiveness, which would’ve driven other cultures into murderous frenzy, Filipinos opt to turn a perpetual blind eye and deaf ears. To claim that we need to be taught cause and effect is like saying we are stone age primitives.
Manolo,
as for your mention of Toral and elections 2010, isn’t it prudent to volunteer your site as a forum for presidential and senatorial debates. The politicians themselves need not participate. We always complain about how people don’t know who to vote and how easily they are swayed by money and guns. Shouldn’t we do the charitable thing and begin debates (education) via cyber space? It’s best to keep discussion general and easy to understand (let’s think of the entire population here). Small words, big ideas should do the trick.
I challenge people to volunteer bigger issues than population control, increasing education budget, and electoral reforms that will help end political dynasties
melo’s appointment tells me that the problems caused by garci will be swept under the rug.
oh… there will be a few COMELEC officials that will be publicly sacked, not because they were involved in a Garcillano-like operations–but because they were involved in the MEGA Pacific deal thingy.
In her column, Monsod says:
One possible explanation is that GDP per capita has been overstated because smuggling has greatly increased and are not accounted for so they cannot be deducted from GDP.
Melo replaces Abalos. If Abalos didn’t resign, he could have weathered the storm, and had the possibility of extension just like Esperon. You know, let Abalos be extended as he’s the only one who can bring clean elections. I rue that lost chance!
Woe to people of short memory…that’s why are leaders are getting away with duping the public!
Is it any wonder why we tolerate our leaders’ lies and double standards? …
Woe to people of short memory…that’s why OUR leaders are getting away with duping the public!
Is it any wonder why we tolerate our leaders’ lies and double standards? …
Randy David’s urban migration as an unintended consequence of the failure of land reform is I believe also the unintended but necessary and foreseeable consequence of the country’s economic program that puts emphasis on competitive advantage (manpower, call centers/IT, tourism) in accordance with globalisation demands instead of the build up of opportunities for growth.
On Monsod’s the number of the truly poor shrinking, my eyes must be deceiving me and the higher number of people living on sidewalks in karitons compared to the past may be just for show. Or may be because life in posh subdivisions just does not allow some the opportunity to have a glimpse at those poor wretched souls.
“Melo replaces Abalos. If Abalos didn’t resign, he could have weathered the storm, and had the possibility of extension just like Esperon. You know, let Abalos be extended as he’s the only one who can bring clean elections. I rue that lost chance!” – Jon Mariano
A controversy of that scale could bring a man down, Jon. Abalos did the right thing of giving himself space through resignation, or he would have been fried by now. I really don’t approve of Melo, since he barely got anything truthful out, but even the constitution states that the President has the final say, even in the supreme court, so we have to deal with the President’s decision. (Correct me, if I got my memory on Politics and Governance with the New Constitution, upside down)
I honestly don’t think he would bring clean elections, since he got to that Mega Pacific thing already.
“I honestly don’t think he would bring clean elections, since he got to that Mega Pacific thing already.”- PDubSpEditor
Unless Melo files the appropriate charges against erring Comelec officials, we cannot expect clean elections in 2010. No charges, no changes.
And why should it be deducted from GDP?
I have no faith on the Comelec. Anybody who leads it can only know and do so much with the deeply ingrained corruption. Outside operators can still influence people inside who have been there forever who are like that French guy who was able to defraud his bank because he knew his bank’s system like the back of his hand.
Proof: even the most “credible” among the commissioners was not competent enough and was not able to make a difference in the last elections. But as they say, something has to be done. Melo might be a good start, but as I have said, I’m not putting my hopes high.
Wow, Randy David is so late to realize this phenomenon of migration of people from rural to urban.
This has been going on ever since the Nice People Around made the lives of the poor people miserable by collecting taxes for their protection.
This has been going on ever since the electrification program of FVR brought TVs and radios even to the remotest barrios. They must have seen what they have been missing if they stay in their God-forsaken places.
This has been going on ever since the OFW phenomenon and that was since MArcos time courtesy of Blas Ople. When one kababaryo makes it big as OFW, many are inspired by the success stories. Since it is impossible to apply while in the barrio, they stay in the cities with their relatives.
The problem with writers, columnists and bloggers is that they see only what’s within a few meters of their residences and offices.
They should be getting out more often to meet real people.
Because smuggled goods, just like legitimate imports, are not produced domestically.
“Yes, our country’s political system sucks. But our culture sucks as well. And one of the ways it sucks the most is in its failure to teach people reasoning, cause-and-effect… and history.” – equalizer bunny
Just out of curiosity, does this apply to you too?
You did not check the formula. The imports refer to the cost of the raw materials that go into production or manufacturing.
You are assuming that all the imports are intermediate products when majority of smuggled goods are finished products, not unless you consider rice, vegetables and cheap canned foods are raw materials for processing.
Do you think the exporters will use chepa smuggled goods for their components when they have to meet certain standards?
Actually, i share your belief that majority of smuggled goods are finished products to be consumed locally. They are therefore reflected in personal consumption expenditure when sold. This sale shows up as an addition to GDP belonging to the aforementioned category.
However, since there is no record that they were not produced locally (aka imported) owing precisely to the fact that they were smuggled in, then there is no corresponding deduction. By contrast, if the finished goods were instead legitimately imported, then these would have been reflected in the Imports portion of the GDP and deducted accordingly.
The erroneous measurement of GDP by undercounting Imports could account for the discrepancy between the reduction in average incomes and the supposed higher per capita GDP.
The formula for GDP that i’m referring to is:
gdp = pce + gc + cf + x – m
where:
pce -> Personal Consumption Expenditure
gc -> Government Consumption
cf -> Fixed capital formation
x -> Exports
m -> Imports
Example:
If i imported 100 pesos worth of rice and sell it, then it will be reflected in both personal consumption expenditure (pce) and Imports (m). So the net effect of is zero.
However, if i smuggled 100 pesos worth of rice and sell it, then it will be reflected only in personal consumption expenditure (pce) with a net effect of adding 100 pesos to GDP. So in the latter case, GDP is overstated by 100 pesos.
cat but if you’ve noticed other trends noted in this blog (changes in land ownership in q. prov., younger people prefering ofw work to farming, drop in private school enrollment both due to more competitive public schools or disinclination of parents to spend, cylical decrease in 2nd sem enrollments, closing of factories in cebu, etc.) the trends are being noticed and there is a difference between the trends that are more gradual and of longer duration that you pointed out, and the possibility you have to consider that other trends are emerging or older ones are accelerating. for example even if kids are joining the drinking age, where are they getting the money, since the jobs aren’t being created in the provinces, etc.?
Monsod did identify POPULATION GROWTH as explanation:
That real average family incomes decreased even as real total incomes increased, i.e., that even as the national “bibingka†[pie] became larger, the share of each partaker became smaller, can only be due to one thing: ……. No matter how one tries, one cannot get around the population “challenge†that stares us in the face.
UPn, population is also already factored in the measurement of per capita GDP as well. Per capita GDP is computed by dividing the total GDP by the population. So the puzzle is, why did per capita GDP increase while per family income as measured by FIES decrease?
And the Randy David article eventually ends by pointing to agri-reform failure and (a wistful???) look to leftist-organizing of farmers:
( … deviously crafted and half-heartedly implemented …agrarian reform program …that was supposed to emancipate the rural poor, has become a mass weapon to decimate them. …
There is hardly any sustained peasant organizing left in the countryside that could match the energy and presence of the peasant movements of the 1930s and 1950s.
cvj: Underground economy??? Or OFW-remittances getting counted in GDP (as PCE) but not in INCOME.
UPn, in fact its the opposite. Remittances are already counted in family income of the FIES, but excluded from GDP. (This is because remittances are not part of domestic production.)
As far as i’m aware, GDP also does not reflect the underground economy.
Interesting issue, especially when Monsod, who has expressed the dilemma, also has the line-item details that go into both ratios.
UPn, i don’t think Monsod has enough info in the line-item details to resolve the dilemma she expressed. Other possible reasons for the discrepancy could be:
1. Use of different population figures as a divisor but this is unlikely since the figures come from the NSO.
2. Consistent under-declaration of income by the survey respondents of the FIES. However, assuming a true random sample, this effect should already have been cancelled out across time periods compared (i.e. 2006 and 2003).
What is also striking are the conclusions that from 2003 to 2006:
(1) income inequality has NOT gotten worse: [the share of the top 10 percent of Filipino families in total income has dropped although still very high at about 36 percent; (2) while (when aggregated) the TOTAL income of Filipino families increased, both in nominal and in real terms. [I guess, by 'real', she means after-inflation.], Monsod pointed out that the number of those partaking of the bibingka increased at a faster rate than the rate at which the bibingka increased. so that average family incomes decreased in real terms — that is, the average family in 2006 could buy fewer goods with its income than it could in 2003.
And the balance sheet of Filipinos in top 5% like the Arroyo couple and Ping Lacson who own real estate in California has gone worse now because of the burst real estate bubble. [Now they don't pay taxes to the Philippines when their real estate assets go up, so I doubt anyone will start a rosary-prayer-chain for these folks.]
Manolo,
i wrote “joining the drinking spree of the adult relatives”.if you’ve been to the barrios, you will see how these people become drunk without buying their own bottles.
The drinking marathon starts with two, probably the father and a friend, then joined in by more relatives, including those children who are already old enough to take a swig until the whole barrio are in attendance.
this is also true in depressed areas in the cities. Heard of kanto boys who test one’s manhood thru St. Michael the Archangel?
Father and son also share in the pack of cigarettes, father buying most of the time. so budget for his vices also increases. who’s going to stop these young children to smoke when their old grandparents smoke, their parents smoke and their friends smoke?
another sad fact is that these young people believe that they are going to eat three square meals a day as long as they stay with the family so the few pesos that they earn go to non-basic such as cigarettes.
cat, yes, i’ve seen that. but it leaves some things i’m still curious about. besides the way people start drinking pretty early in rural areas, i wonder though whether family-oriented drinking like this is as prevalent as it used to be. if the father’s abroad, for example, then maybe the grandfather is the source but what if the siblings are the only ones left in charge…
GDP = Esperon
“GMA’s domestic poodle”
Nyahahaha.
Down doggie, hersh yer prizesh fer veing a good lapdog…four more montsh of malacanang goodiesh…
The “push” to move to rural areas is not solely due to conversion of agricultural lands. My experience is that even families of tenant farmers on a crop-sharing scheme with their landlords are increasingly nuclear as well because their constant share of the harvest are unable to support their rapidly growing family. Do you know that it is still common to have 6 or more children in these areas?
One evil is to ignore the need for access of women to education and reproductive health in rural areas.
‘The bottom line here is that if the FIES tells us that poverty must have increased from 2003 to 2006, what with average incomes of the bottom 30 percent decreasing, why is it that our National Income Accounts estimates for the same period tell us that real per capita gross domestic product has increased? How are these conflicting statements to be reconciled? Another challenge.’
There is probably an error in the computation somewhere or data must have been ‘doctored’. Garbage in, garbage out.
“The “push†to move to rural areas is not solely due to conversion of agricultural lands. My experience is that even families of tenant farmers on a crop-sharing scheme with their landlords are increasingly nuclear as well because their constant share of the harvest are unable to support their rapidly growing family. Do you know that it is still common to have 6 or more children in these areas?
One evil is to ignore the need for access of women to education and reproductive health in rural areas.”
I am from a most rural area of the country, a fact none of you guys can boast about. So I know something you don’t, inspite of your expertises. From where I came from, the choice to have 6 or more children (the more the better to them) is a prevailing logic by rural parents for economic reason. After weathering the grinding poverty raising 9 or 10 offspring (for example), payback time is when the chldren reach their prime, some starting from age 15 years, go to Manila to earn a couple of thou, send home half of it, some even got more lucky, and the parents survived for the long haul. That’s one migration type and reason even Solita and Randy might not know about. Now, if you are them, and you neither have that glib of tongue, nor the wit of Cicero, but only the wit of brawn, would you not do the same?
CAT and Manolo,
Maybe you guys mean Starbucks. Ginebra gin is so 80s.
Then it is worse because they can do whatever they please with the money they receive from the father. And since a member of the family is abroad, the members of the extended family would like also to share with the bounty.
A request for isang lapad naman diyan o kaya kuwatro kantos never ends.
Teh return of the OFW is often celebrated with expensive wines bought from the tourist duty free. Then more local wines are consumed as more relatives come to visit the newly-arrived relatives.
Would you believe that even women in the province drink too?
“filipino diaspora as a form of revolt” is one of the most amusing, disingenuous thesis i’ve heard since the proposition that ofw’s stop remitting dollars to their families to undermine the arroyo government. it’s another telling exposition of the ‘vacuousness’ of the filipino mind.
studying, working and living “abroad” (especially u.s. and europe) are among the natural aspirations of most pinoys, from cradle to grave. in spanish colonial days, only the wealthy few (e.g. rizal, the luna brothers, jaena, del pilar, etc.) and, of course the poor laborers and crewmen of the galleon trade) could get to leave their homeland, not so much to rebel but to study and/or work. during the american occupation, many pinoys wanted to live and work in the u.s. but, except for relatively few agricultural workers (apple pickers, canners, tobacco farmers, etc.) and limited number of wealthy students, were unsuccessful because of exclusionary immigration policies and discriminatory treatment of “colored” peoples (including filipinos) at the time. only after 1952 when u.s immigration was liberalized to allow non-europeans (including filipinos) to immigrate under a strict quota system. the opening-up of immigration rules for filipinos ushered in the heavy influx of immigration to the u.s. those who could not opted for other places that would admit them such as canada, australia, europe, and later, the middle east, africa, hongkong, singapore, taipeh, etc.
the filipino’s desire to immigrate has always been there under every administration from quezon to macapagal-arroyo. i think the primary motivation is economics rather than political (except those who fled from marcos’ dictatorship). it seems, most everybody wants to live in “the land of milk and honey”, where “money grows on trees”, and where the poorest can eat the same cut of beef as the sole heir of the rockefeller fortune.
Sorry for the delay in the response. I have to call a phone card company and threatened them that I will report them to the Better Business Bureau if they are not going to attend to my complaint. I used a phone card to call my sister in the Philippines. After three rings, I hang up do the machine would not get my call. I dialed again only to be told the remaining balance of the phone card has been reduced by 1.65 and the number of minutes to half. I was not even connected. Second time, I called, I was not connected and the same amount was deducted from my balance. Highway robbery. In times,like this I contact a live person in the customer service. AND TELL THEM I AM GOING TO REPORT THEM. arghh
So going to our issue.
Personal Consumption Expenditure refers to household expenses such as food, rent, medical expenses and other final goods.
In our case, it is food.
Consumption of food does not change with the change in price. Simply stated, you will not gorge yourself with vegetables or rice because the prices have gone down.
Same is true with the smuggled rice that we are talking about.
Let’s use your example.
You buy smuggled rice worth 100 pesos in exchange of locally produced rice which could be 200.00 in the market.
What goes to the PCE?
The 100 pesos worth of rice. Something wrong. Yeah definitely. Because that is not locally produced goods but is counted as one.
Second, the value is lower than if the rice purchased was the locally produced rice. In my case it is half.
What’s the effect? GDP is understated not as what you claimed that it is overstated because the smuggled goods can not be deducted as imports.
The locally produced goods were not consumed at all and therefore are not included in the PCE. As I have said , you donot double your consumption of staples even if the price is reduced. That’s inelasticity.
What happens to the locally produced 200 worth of rice? It is still in inventory waiting to be purchased and reported as expenditure in the next quarter or year.
If they are not stored in the warehosue which suddenly catch fire accidentally or are sunk in the ocean while in transport to the other regions.
What you give as sample is only applicable for intermediate goods or if you are accounting for GNP.
Bencard,
Maybe Filipinos are true lovers of democracy. The reason why they want to be in America.
It is not just Filipinos, but practically every nation has a lot of its people wanting to immigrate. One of every 10 Russians want to live in the US. And for every 100, more French than Russians, will live in the US if given the chance. So by extension, a whole lot more than 1-in-10 if they had the chance will live elsewhere (Australia, Israel, Switzerland, Saudi Arabia (but does Saudi Arabia accept immigrants??)).
Canadians, too — 17% (or a little under one in 5) will live in the US if given the chance. And for every hundred of its citizens, more Indonesians (also Koreans and Brazilians) want to live in the US than Canadians wanting to live in the US.
Willingness to live in another country seems the norm than the exception. [Side-note: My perception given the choice -- move to France or the US, more Filipinos will choose USA. (I'll say this is true -- US preferred over France -- also for Australians or Indonesians or Chinese. But this is just a guess -- no surveys to affirm or dispute the statement.]
Source: BBC Survey
Question: If you had the chance, would you like to live in America?
Indonesia-Yes 23% Jordan–Yes 15%
Brazilâ€â€Yes 25% Canada–Yes 17%
Franceâ€â€Yes 12% UKâ€â€Yes 24%
Australia–Yes 25% Russia–Yes 10%
Israelâ€â€-25% Koreaâ€â€Yes 24%
The BBC Survey illustrates that “diaspora to USA” is driven less by politics and more by economics — “a better life” primarily salary and freedom of speech.
Question : Based on what you know, do you yourself agree or disagree with American policy on terrorism?
The score below is percent-agree less percent-disagree.
(a) more French said agree than disagree : net plus 10%;
(b) more Indonesians said disagree : net minus 15%;
(c) more Brazilians said disagree : net minus 41%;
——–
In contrast, twice as many Indonesians(25%) than French(12%)will live in the USA if given the chance.
if Filipinos will stop watching American movies or tv series then their desire to go to the US might be reduce considerably. There should be a warning label to those movies and tv series.
Warnings for Filipino males going to the USA:
1) You have to stop when you encounter a STOP sign on the road.
2) You can’t hand over your drivers license to a cop with a $10 bill.
3) You can’t usually drink alcohol in strip clubs.
4) You can’t touch the girls in strip clubs.
5) No means No.
Filipino diaspora as a form of revolt? Very interesting read from a perceptive lawyer!
Author Carlo Osi took for granted that his readers know the basic concept (diaspora). Having defined it broadly as the “voluntary and involuntary dispersion and immigration of Filipinos worldwide†it could leave people thinking in many different ways. Diaspora is not just dispersion or immigration. It is, in essence, a MASSIVE movement of people, usually by an external, more powerful force. The internal force (e.g., motivation) follows, often as a necessity rather than by choice or free will. The expulsion of the Jews from Babylon half a century before Christ was born, and their “return†after Israel rose as a state, comes to mind as the clearest example. The migration of Muslims from India to Pakistan after the partition is another. In the US, the lifting of immigration controls in 1965 opened a floodgate of immigrants from Asia, Filipinos topping the list. Ten years later, Marcos decreed what is now to become the OFW phenomenon.
But the internet and related media are also a driving force, in another stream of migration through the “mail-order-brides,†pen pals, cyberchats. During 1989-2004, some 264,000 Filipinos got “foreign†spouses and left, most of them never returned home except for a short visit. (That figure is about the size of Hawaii’s Filipinos, second biggest concentration of Filipinos outside the Philippines.)
The tripolar world of Europe/U.S./Japan is slowly making way for a resurging Greater China (Peoples Republic of China/Taiwan/Singapore/HK/ and large swaths of the ASEAN Economies).
Greater China will slowly replace Japan in the this tripolar world. Today the world is moving from a dollar dominated world to a bi-polar financial system of the Euro and the dollar. The ongoing merger of Europes capitalist systems with the American capitalist systems is proceeding.
The rest of the world are simply ancillary to these four economies.
ASEAN is simply a superficial abstract owned and operated by the the four major economies of the world. U.S., Europe, Japan and Greater China.
The future obviously for growth will be based on Greater China.
India, and the rest of South Asia are still steeped in backward cultural systems and will remian laggards.
The Middle East, Russia and other fossil fuel rich countries are simply the gas filing station of the four major economies.
hvrds: What does your ideas mean for the Philippines? Does the Philippines have enough of whatever so it can play one bloc against another, or is the Philippines just roadkill, ready to be assimilated? Or should the action-item be to let the Tsinoys replace the old oligarchs so that the Philippines becomes satellite of Greater China?
UPn, it probably means that somewhere down the line, we Pinoys would have put up with a Chinese version of you (and Bencard). American supremacists will be replaced with Chinese supremacists.
I am a Filipino of Chinese descent but I will never ever advocate having the Philippines become a satellite country of China. Unfortunately, we shoot ourselves in the foot by allowing them to come and stay and do business, sometimes illegally. They’re now everywhere in the Philippines.
Bert
I totally agree with your statement. Children of rural folks are looked upon as the savior of the family. So the more there is, the more likely that they’ll have a chance at a better life.
The real question is, why is that also the case in the urban areas. They also have lots of children. Knowing how grinding poverty can be, you would think that they would not have as many children. Is it a matter of the rural mentality being brought to the urban areas? How does that account for people who are 2nd or 3rd generation and still bear a lot of children?
cvj: that’s hilarious. But do you have survey numbers related to your premise? But me— I am hedging my bets. I’m 4 months into Mandarin and 6 months into French language lessons, just in case. With Chirac and Villepin having left and an apparently “more reasonable” French President Nicolas Sarkozy at the helm, maybe France allows in more brown-skinned, not just as temporary workers but as citizens. Je me prépare également aux événements improbables.
Silent waters: …That many poor Filipino families still bear 5 or 6… a lot of children. “Poor” is the operative word. I thought I saw a survey which said that there is less coitus / less “fertilizing” in countries with more TV sets.
–
And I know I saw an interview with a Quiapo-general-area husband/wife who lives in a kariton and the both of them want to have less children, except condoms cost money.
test only
that is true…maybe somehow, having TV at home does have it’s advantages…wink wink
Silent Waters, less coitus = less children. More TV time equals less coitus time. Quite logical really.
Also true is the ignorance of many about family planning (or birth control as a means to plan the family size). I too came from the boondocks where there’s no electricity (therefore no TV!) until the early 80s and family average size was 7. Having a big family was normal, having one or two children was abnormal. Things have changed, but in remote areas it’s still true.
One of the undesirable effects of availability of information thru TV, Radio, Internet, etc on the other hand is the early education of our young to copulate. Do we have stats on how many children are born from 18 and below parents? It was an abnormality before, but not anymore, di ba? We used to play bahay-bahayan, now it’s bahay-bahayan with a real baby.
@john mariano
“…. the undesirable effects of availability of “information” thru TV, Radio,”
maybe the correct term is ‘misinformation’
there is nothing wrong with teenagers copulating as long as they do it responsibly, although being teenages, we know this is difficult.
the key is to give them the access to correct information, more importantly, they have the right to this information.
They have the right to copulate but how come there is such a thing as statutory rape? So only minors can have sex with each other? This law definitely is not the answer to over population
I agree that proper “understanding” of available information and availability of birth control “kits” can help solve this problem (over population).
Rape is different from consensual sex. And as we should always teach everyone: NO means NO.
Basically what I really want to say is that the MORE and COREECTLY informed teenagers are the LESS LIKELY are they to make BAD DECISIONS.
By depriving them of information, access to information, the right to make informed decisions, we are burying our head in the sand. Condom use is just one of many alternatives. You could of course choose to be celibate.
The ages of 14-20 are driven by something more powerful and physiological – HORMONES. Not even the Holy Spirit can stop the surge.
The incontrovertible proof of 86 M Filipinos cramped in such a tiny piece of real estate shows that whether there are condoms or not, we will still continue to shag each other. So it is better in the long run to make all information about all alternatives readily available.
ps. about statory rape, i am not familiar with our laws but isn’t this sexual relations between an adult and a minor (below 18)?????
ikaw naman, like in the film “American Beauty”, (when spacey realises he is devirginising a young girl….sabi niya sa isip nya, “Mali ito”. her first experience should be with someone her age.) let the kids enjoy themselves without the adults…
“Sex education” is supposed to be part of the high school curriculum, but The Philippine government was forced to abandon a controversial sex education program for high school students after the country’s powerful Roman Catholic Church expressed opposition to it. In 2006, Education Assistant Secretary Vilma Labrador said the Department of Education has ordered an immediate suspension of the distribution of the module, after the Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines (CBCP) objected to its content.
The CBCP objects to the giving informatin about condoms and other contraceptives, which, to the bishops is the same
– as promoting sex :evilL -. This is an even more important issue in the slums of Africa and South America where condoms are needed to stop the spread of HIV/Aids .
Yes, the Roman Catholic Church, too, objects to education about HIV/AIDS if the lesson plans mention condoms.
– The CBCP says “let the parents teach the children” and ignores the fact that the the parents themselves are badly informed about HIV/AIDS.
Kasi nga, the Roman Catholic Church has lots of educational institutions. By promoting large families, there will be more enrolees. But the Church is not entirely greedy, in my school, you get a discount if your sibling is also enrolled in the school. So Catholic Families want to avail themselves of this discount and hence create more babies.
I remember our ultra-conservative school chaplain telling us that when we felt libog, we should pray the rosary. Then one of the boys realised that a rosary could be used as a studded cock ring to delay ejaculation (which is a problem for teenagers). Ayun, sales of rosaries went up and the Sisters were happy.
So you agree that the 100 pesos of smuggled rice will result in an overstatement of GDP.
However, you believe that such overstatement of GDP is more than offset by the net understatement that results when the 200 pesos worth of unsold rice stays off the books. Even granting the [arguable] proposition that local rice is twice as expensive as foreign rice, i don’t believe it will result in understatement of GDP.
The reason is that the extra 100 pesos would most likely have been spent on something else, e.g. cigarettes, ginebra or starbucks, so it would still be ultimately reflected in pce component of GDP. It would be less likely that the unspent 100 pesos would go into savings although i wouldn’t totally discount that possibility.
It would be worth looking at whether the savings rate per family increased during this period.
Economists find it hard to reconcile the fact that the more developed a country (resources are aplenty), the less fertile are its women. It goes against nature — in times of abundance, flora and fauna go to orgy mode and multiply. Economists call this the demographic-economic dilemma.
The lesson is that you can’t have development without addressing population. Both go hand in hand. We recognize that our colonial institutions and politics are the problem. But when can we have the courage to admit that the Catholic Church is also one of our evils?
It makes me sad to renounce something which is so part of me as a Filipino. But come to think of it, it’s not as if our religiousity has taught us to be moral in the secular aspects of our lives.
‘Does the Philippines have enough of whatever so it can play one bloc against another, or is the Philippines just roadkill, ready to be assimilated?’
Maybe this time the US will admit the Philippines as the 51st state just to maintain a foothold in Asia.
‘Maybe this time the US will admit the Philippines as the 51st state just to maintain a foothold in Asia.”
My god, papasakop ka rin lang bakit sa USA pa?
Bakit hindi sa Canada (high quality of life, low murder rate), sa Netherlands (egalitarian, civil liberties), sa Sweden (rich, pragmatic) etc…etc…
There are other options you know…
cheers
nash,
They will not do it. Canada, The Netherlands and Sweden have less population population than the Philippines combined.
What are the other options?
dumadami na kasi ang mga muslim, the church must increase its numbers to be relevant.
If you cannot understand economics, don’t try.
I said there is an understatement since instead of accounting for the locally produced goods which are available at higher prices, what the PCE reflected were the costs of the smuggled goods because that
s what were reported by consumers.
the consumption of rice will not double even if you floor the price.
don’t talk to me about starbucks, those are not staples. gawd. the poor going to starbucks? my foot.
Who buys the smuggled goods? Not the rich, not the middle-income. They shop in groceries.
In Divisoria and Baclaran.
@supremo
they will do it for our glorious beaches, happy people, eternal sunshine, and resilience in the face of adversity.
if are stuck in sweden during the winter, hay naku, you will know how they will pay anything to get sunshine.
besides what’s in it for the usa to colonise us rin? (apart from hyperextending their borders and ensuring that their many enemies do not fight them on the mainland…). I’d rather accept that Zubiri is a rightfully elected senator than be occupied by someone with so many kaaway.
maybe those 86 people who joined gloria in davos are back with more bright ideas? I’m still waiting for their trip report. They said they weren’t on a junket so I expect treaties to have been signed, investments pouring in to the provinces of those tongressmen who went…etc.
@ cat
the rich also buy smuggled goods. Kia Besta vans are not cheap. PX goods are not cheap.
and what about Willie Revillame and his ferrari and yacht?
these items are high value items that only the wretch have money for…
Supremo : I think nash suggested that instead of Pinas becoming a US state, better to be “absorbed” into Canada or Sweden.
—————
Here is a factoid. At the end of the Spanish-American War and with the Treaty of Paris, Spain ceded 4 territories to the US, namely Cuba, Philippines, Puerto Rico and Guam. Of the 4, 50% are independent and the other 50% remains under US-of-A.
(a) Cuba – became independent 2 years after Treaty of Paris (there was a special law – Teller Amendment — that clearly obligated the US presidency to turn over Cuba to Cubans);
(b) Puerto Rico — 50 years after Treaty of Paris, all its citizens granted US citizenship;
(c) Guam — 50 years after Treaty of Paris, all its citizens granted US citizenship;
(d) Philippines — 50 years after Treaty of Paris, independence from USA.
——
To be expected, there exists “total independence” movements. There also is a Guam movement to be annexed to Hawaii; and a movement in Puerto Rico to become a full-fledged US State (versus a commonwealth).
Guam and Puerto Rico citizens can fly in/out — and reside — in US mainland. But neither Guam nor Puerto Rico can vote for US President nor Vice-President.
JS: Mindanao still remains an area for CARP. What I mean is to offer government land to farmers from Pampanga, Nueva Ecija, Bicol along with educational and social programs for all Mindanao… along with rule of law .
And the Muslims are 5% of the philippine population. I think many PMA graduates (and many Filipinos, too) believe that the ability of the “tail wagging the dog” has something to do with having guns and willing to use it.
…to offer Mindanao government land to farmers from Pampanga, Bicol…. along with rule of law over all of Mindanao.
Nash, now that you mentioned Willie Revillame, if ever there was one guy I ever want to sucker punch and won’t mind spending a few days in jail that would be that guy and here’s the story.. I once been so unfortunate to watch one of his show featuring newly circumcised boys having a dance contest (sort of acrobatic) for some prize, if you don’t call that some sort of cruelty, I don’t know what else?? And it may had been it that show when he asked the contestant what line of work his father has and the kid was hesitant to give an answer and he forced the issue on the boy until the boy was reduced to tears…well, firt, whatever his name should have realized that some kids have very bad experiences with their father, some didn’t even know their fathers and some may have been abandoned by their fathers…he should had done his homework before putting the kids in a situation that would avoid what may be a traumatic experience on top of what they already experienced….
Ca T, i understand the second part of your assertion that GDP is understated because of the 100 pesos (in your example) that was not spent on the more expensive locally produced rice.
What i’m saying is that such understatement will only be realized if that 100 pesos is not spent on other items. If that 100 pesos is spent, then it enters the GDP (as pce).
It may be true, as you say, that “the consumption of rice will not double even if you floor the price.” However, you have to remember that rice is not the only consumable. As you said above:
Based on your own comment, poor people spending what they saved on cheaper smuggled rice on other non-staples is not unheard of.
nash: but what does the Philippines get if it becomes part of sweden?
@vic
basta ako puzzled talaga ako. tito vic and joey have probably earned more individually than willie and yet i don’t see them driving ferraris.
or i might be uninformed and noontime hosting is indeed a high paying profession. sali na rin ako.
I guess it’s this very asian trait of “FACE”, we put a premium on appearances instead of what really matters. kaya ayan, bling bling.
and yet harap-harapan na itong smuggling of luxury goods, especially among congressmen, they should all be hanged for economic sabotage. A congressman driving a 4WD only asserts the fact that they are too corrupt to have well paved highways
.
Hence, we have teenagers spending money on cigarettes for the ‘macho’ look.
On the population issue, blogger Urbano dela Cruz pointed out that rural to urban migration is good in terms of slowing down population growth because cities are known to act as “population sinks”.
http://www.hundredyearshence.blogspot.com/2005/07/cities-as-population-sinks.html
UP n student & nash,
It doesn’t really matter which country will ‘absorbed’ the Philippines. The sheer number of Filipinos will deter from doing it. The Philippines should just form a federation with Indoneasia.
Upn, for one thing, our national language will become Swedish.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qff098NCNDE
watch out, guys, revillame could one day be elected senator, even president. see how he calls his “show” a “public service” while he and abs-cbn are laughing on their way to the bank?
@ UP n,
ewan, nasabi ko lang yung dahil better alternative naman ang Sweden sa USA na maraming kaaway.
If you want to stay with an English speaking country, ayan nga ang Canada, New Zealand.
@ supremo,
ayaw ko sa indonesia, dami censorship dun. bawal pa tanduay. ano nalang ininumin ng masa to forget their troubles.
@ bencard,
tama lang na manalo si revillame, lito lapid and bong revilla are turning out to be boring (nary a stupid comment from them…) imagine miriam, chiz, revillame, high theatre!
nash, ang alam kong kaaway ng u.s. ay ang al quaeda at taliban lang. seguro maraming galit (o sikeretong kaaway) dahil sa inggit. pero ganyan talaga ang buhay – tao man o bansa.
btw, palagay ko wala namang mag-iinteres sa pinas kahit ipag-ngudnguran pa – masyadong malaking problema at liabilidad.
Kaso ang problema, kahit hindi Al-qaeda o Taliban, napapagkamalan kaya madaming inosenteng nadamay.
better to have no enemies than one or two. sila rin naman nag-finance ng mga nascent grupo na iyan during the cold war.
o siya, manolo, wa ba bagong post para tuloy tuloy ang magagandand discussion?
(apologies for the poor tagalog, i is from the boondocks kasi.)
wow, nila-”lang” “lang” mo lang ang taliban at al qeda.
better to have no enemies than one or two. sila rin naman nag-finance ng mga nascent grupo na iyan during the cold war.
o siya, manolo, wa ba bagong post para tuloy tuloy ang magagandand discussion?
(apologies for the poor tagalog, i is from the boondocks kasi.)
I believe next to China, and maybe India, considering the number of their Population, the Philippines is the next largest source of new immigrants to Canada in the last few years as reported in the new census. Plus to the number the contract workers that are also qualified for immigrant status after Two Years of continuous employment. In a few year, we will become a VERY visible Minority in all of Canada..
on a serious note “Inggit” is not a term I would use for the animosity to US foreign policy (let us now be specific lest we be accused of slagging its citizens).
The USA (ie foreign policy) uses it economic and military might to arm twist smaller economies into signing one-sided agreements.
We also have embargoes, propping up dictatorships (Hussein, Suharto) until they become irrelevant (Musharaff)….
cvj, problema talaga. kaya maraming napatay sa world trade center, at tuwing magpapasabog and mga terorista at suicide bombers. walang matanda, bata, lalake, babae, bakla, sundalo, artista, pangit, maganda, mayaman, pobre o ano pa man.
Case study in the history of the influence of the Chinese merchant class domination of the Philippine economy.
When the Philippines defaulted on their foreign loans in 1983, Jobo was appointed to the old C.B. The IMF wanted him there. At the same time Roberto Ongpin on bhalfof the state took over the informal market in dollars by joining forces with the Ocier family then the unoffical head of the BINONDO CENTRAL BANK. Willy Ocier and Ongpin became the de-facto central bank of the country.
Please note that it is the Binondo Business Club that run the economy of the country and not the Spaniards of the Americans. This was since the Spanish times. It was the chinese who brought their artisan and merchant skills to the Philippines.
They were also the ones who benefitted immensly from the debt buy back of that period. John Gokongwei was the premier buyer of severely discounted sovereign debt paper that he leveraged later to get control of sugar mills and built his first malls. His adviser and inside man then was former CB Governor Singson. During that period the government was desperate for foreign exchange so they turned a blind eye to forex control violations of the Chinese merchants then who had their monies tied up in banks in HK, Taiwan and Singapore.
The IMF took care of the American and European companies here since they were involved mainly in the formal economy.
The Philippines actually operated in default using the Binondo Central Bank and through the issuance of Jobo bills which paid 40% yiled per anum to attract investments. We are still paying for that today.
Fast forward to the Asian crisis in 1997. The government had to turn to Lucio Tan to take over PNB and PAL. If PNB went belly up thestate would havehad to under take a massive nationalization process at a time when the state was still incapable of taking over. Look how the SSS and GSIS together with the Go family of Equitable took over troubled PCI Bank of Gokongwei and Lopez at full price of $300 M.
Gokongwei and lopez had picked up PCI Bank in 1983-4 for only $25M
The Philippine economy had been road kill for many generations.
Do not blame the Chinese merchants. The opportunities presented itself and they being more evolved recognized it. They actually integrated the Philippine economy. But the old lanlord elite still dominates politics and with the rise of the chopstick economies a small bunch of chinese merchants will naturally integrate themselves with the producer nations which is their original home countries.
Look at the present crop of Presidentiables. Roxas, Villar, Estrada, Legarda and even de castro. Are they any different from the past and they will do the same things over and over again.
There is no one still that is suggesting a break from the past.
vic: that is noteworthy …. a Filipino bank teller, caregiver, Visual Basic programmer, Cisco LAN expert or nurse is eligible for Canada immigrant status if he/she has worked for 2 continuous years.
nash, i call it national interest and self-preservation. if there is any nation on earth who could possibly dominate the world, i would put my faith on the u.s. with its proven benevolence, respect for human rights, adherence to the rule of law, fairness and justice. of course, it’s not perfect, by any means, but its imperfections pale compared to that of all the others.
UPn, Yes as far as caregivers and nannies I know..most of the mostly successful todays Filipino immigrants were yesterdays nannies, who in the old days were required to do a little schooling or upgrading and need 3 years to qualify..so I believe it is true to all contract workers as Canada adhere to the principles of Equality…
Bencard:
Per 2003 BBC survey, to the question “in military conflicts, do you think that the American military does enough to avoid civilian casualties or could it do more?”, about one in 3 Americans say “could do more”. 58% of Canadians, of Israelis.. also of Australians say “could do more”. 65% of Indonesians, 80% of Russians, 93% of Jordanians say “could do more”.
………
As to the question “do you think that Al Qaeda does enough to avoid civilian casualties or could it do more?”, no one even bothers to conduct a survey.
SUPERFERRY 14!!!
nothing they don’t already have. they’ll jz be wasting time and effort when our leaders already bow and scrape, and serve the US hand and foot.
mas masahol pa kay Willie, ay sina Gozon at Lopez, dahil sila nagdi dictate ng programming ng istasyon nila. pambobong palabas, sa kanila yun. nakakabobong noontime shows? sa kanila rin un. at pag me humirit pa na sinasagot lang nila ang gusto ng tao, hahambalusin ko sila ng rule of vicious cycles.
me oras rin ang karma.
with great power, comes great responsibility. tama.
pero with great greed comes great tragedy. ampotah, kaya nga vicious cycle eh. Gozon and Lopez wants the masses to stay stupid so that they’ll keep on patronizing their shows that makes these same people stupid (or even stupider, bordering on idiotic, and surpassing imbecility) in short, there is no incentive to make shows of higher quality and in fact, is more undesirable for if they start making more TRULY educational shows, it would mean more educated people. which would mean, lesser people to bamboozle, lesser people patronizing them – and basically less power for them. a more informed citizenry is a citizenry hard to dupe.
haha. ampotah talaga. ang sarap sapakin. with that kind of power, malaki na maitutulong nyan to improve our country. pero ampotah talaga, kaya ampotah na lang. so? me oras rin ang karma.
upn student. that was interesting. obviously, it is far easier for the indonesians (predominantly muslim), russians (still a u.s. non-admirer), and jordan (what can i say) to say “could do more”, unless, perhaps, they are the ones actually doing it.
@devilsadvoc8t
ikaw ha, kapuso ka pala.
hrvds: “Case study in the history of the influence of the Chinese merchant class domination of the Philippine economy.”
Very interesting post! Mind telling your source? or is it a product of direct observation? of inside info (perhaps?)?
Wow, that gives an “inside” view about Gokongwei’s entrepreneurial success. That’s what I pointed out earlier. Entrepreneurs tell good stories about how they make it, but there are other untold ones that remain hidden from public ears. In a way, people are like newspapers – they banner headlines, good (bad) news in the front page. What is untold is yet to be known, or said. Sometimes one finds this stuff in the back page, or outside the domain of newswriting or public speaking.
bencard, it is pronouncements like these which lead me to believe that you may be living in an alternate world. either that, or you should really stop whatever drugs you’re taking.
proven benevolence? and i suppose you have the american-indians as examples of this benevolence? respect for human rights? amfufu. nagpapatawa ka ba? rule of law o rule of force? fairness and justice? skewed to the very end on their side.
not perfect talaga. and comparing to others, i can think of countries more magnanimous than the US.
To the question “which do you think is more dangerous to world peace and stability, USA or Al Qaeida?”, Indonesia says US (60 vs 27); Jordan says US (71 vs 8).
Russia – 25% say US, 49% say Al Qaeida;
France – 14% say US, 75% say Al Qaeida;
Australia – 21% say US, 71% say Al Qaeida;
Canada – 25% say US, 65% say Al Qaeida;
13% of Americans say USA is the bigger danger to world peace.
nasht, pano ako naging kapuso eh sinali ko si Gozon?
haha. di mo kilala si Gozon no?
@bencard
“proven benevolence…”- the usa does not even figure in the top 10 of charitable aid as a percentage of gdp. the top spot belongs to the netherlands.
“respect for human rights” – yes, those people in guantanamo have access to lawyers and have been officially charged.
“adherence to the rule of law” – paris hilton
“fairness and justice” – aid to Israel is 100 times that given to palestine whose citizens are being starved by a big wall.
But I agree with you, in terms of real values rather than relative values, the USA, being the greatest economy of this lifetime have done a lot of good.
But as they say, to whom much is given, much is expected, and they can definitely do better.
leche, wrong grammar pa ako. dapat “has done” instead of “have done”. napala sa kapapanood ng sarimanok channel
Devils, “proven benevolence? and i suppose you have the american-indians as examples of this benevolence? respect for human rights? amfufu. nagpapatawa ka ba? rule of law o rule of force? fairness and justice? skewed to the very end on their side.”
Amen!
@hawaiianguy,
why did you have to mention the “i” word? they are trying to bury that into oblivion
cvj,
Tulad ng sinabi ni bencard problema talaga na laging damay ang inosente. Pati ba naman ako na nanahimik sa opisina eh binulabog ng dalawang eroplano na yan. parang may lindol sa loob ng opisina. tapos nakita ko pa sa bintana yung mga tao na nahuhulog. buti na lang nakababa agad ako at mabilis akong tumakbo at hindi ako nabagsakan ng world trade center. kung hindi walang magsasabi sa iyo na tarantado talaga ang mga taong walang pakialam sa mga inosente.
I don’t know how vic/canada feels, but hawaiianguy and the two nash’es seem to vote like Indonesians or Jordanians (and not Canadians or Russians). Bencard votes like a typical American.
———–
2003 BBC Survey: to the question “in general, how would you say you feel towards America?” the score is “favorable less unfavorable”, so a plus-score represents feel “favorable” towards USA.
Australia — plus 35
Canada — 65
Jordan — minus 60
Indonesia — minus 27
France — minus 10
Russia — plus 21
Korea — plus 22
UK — plus 57
USA — plus 88
Now here is a zinger… “in general, how would you say you feel about the Philippines?” I vote favorable.
I only suggested a federation with Indonesia because
1. It makes sense geographically
2. The economic status is almost the same
3. It might solve the Mindanao secession problem
Thailand is also a possible partner in a federation.
devils, more magnanimous? then do it. name them. just because a country HAS DONE NOTHING worthwhile that affect the whole world, it could be described as “magnanimous”. greenland or iceland has not bothered any nation. are they magnanimous? american indians? name one great nation (pre-historic, ancient, medieval or modern) on earth that had not been founded on conquest and occupation. judea, the biblical state of abraham, was established through conquest of many tribes, e.g., hitites. so were egypt, assyria, babilonia, persia, greece, rome, the ottoman empire, etc.
perhaps you should try what i’m drinking. perhaps it could make you less pompous and presumptuous.
nash, if you are going to debate me on this subject, look at the big picture rather than zero in on particular flaws. u.s.a. is not, never has been, engaged in charity-giving contests. it just gave, and has been giving, to charity since its inception as a nation. guantanamo and paris hilton do not even begin to define america’s rule of law and justice. there are also criminals in america, you know, and they invariably face law and justice when they are caught (unlike some places i know). whether america chooses to give more aid to one country over another is not an issue of fairness (this is a very pinoy mentality). the fact is that it gives aid, period.
Supremo, so siguro alam mo na rin ang pakiramdam ng mga Iraqi na binulabog ng mga Amerikano. Sa palagay mo, katumbas kaya ng ilang 9/11 ang kanilang napagdaanan?
devils, i forgot to mention the conquest and occupation of the philippines, etc. by spain, india, new zealand and australia by great britain, brazil and sao paolo, etc. by portugal. just say if you need more, and i’ll refer you to upn (if he’s willing to “educate” you).
Bencard, so i take it that “magnanimous” means killing fewer people in a less cruel manner than the others.
cvj,
nasabugan ka na ba kahit triangulo man lang? alam mo ba ang pakiramdam? anong gagawin mo? iiyak ka lang sa tabi o gaganti ka rin? kung hindi ka pa nakaranas ng kahit na anong bombing o giyera eh tumabi ka na lang at huwag ka ng makialam. hindi mo laban ‘to. kung gusto mong makialam pumunta ka muna sa Iraq o Afghanistan tapos sabihin mo dito sa blog na ‘to kung ano ang pakiramadam. walang imagination lang. dapat totoong experience.
supremo, ang lagay ba kung inosenteng Americano ang nasantala eh inosenteng Iraqi din dapat ang kapalit? Hindi ba ang nararapat gantihan ay ang mga may kagagawan ng 9/11?
para sa mga mahilig sa sushi.
‘On December 13, 1937, the Imperial Japanese Army stormed the Chinese city of Nanking. During the following six weeks, they murdered and tortured countless civilians whose only crime was being Chinese. Over 300,000 people were killed and over 20,000 women were brutally raped. However, over the decades, the Japanese began to deny that this massacre ever occurred.’
cvj, let’s just say among non-angels, america is the least evil. there’s definitely a difference between a lethal injection and cutting you piece by piece starting from your pinkie until you are deader than dead.
cvj,
pakita mo muna ang peklat mo dahil sa bomb sharpnel o debris ng kung ano man at mag-usap uli tayo. totoong experience para patas. bahala ka kung saan mo gustong kunin ang peklat mo.
@ bencurd,
I’m just splitting hairs with you. Of course I recognize, America’s contribution and charity giving SHOULD NOT be a contest as you suggest.
anyways, i’m just making conjecture here and humoring you while manolo puts up a new blog post that we can all enjoy talking about.
and let me go back to your first statement: “who could possibly dominate the world, i would put my faith on the u.s.”
Only YOU and some Americans think this way. Why should you always think about “DOMINATING” kasi???
Why can’t you let the world be? We don’t want this hegemony of yours.
Imagine how infinitely boring Marrakech or Cairo would be if it had McDonald’s or Starbucks. Or how our sex life would suffer if we had to work more than 45 hours a week as standard and without 4 weeks off paid holidays per year.
Cheers
Supremo, mas maraming may peklat sa Iraq. Alam natin kung bakit.
@ UP n,
the two nashes are me
and i don’t know what that survey is measuring. America is Mula Canada hanggang Argentina. Baka that means USA.
Anyways, I don’t know about Indonesians, but I still love USA stuff like Blues, Jazz Music, their national parks, and their literature. As for hawkish foreign policy, that is a different thing.
nash: the survey was done in the dialect of the nations; America meant USA; it was done May 2003.
As for the sentences you’ve posted re US-of-A, you could just as easily be a Californian who likes the blues, enjoys the beach and hiking the national parks (I won’t include ‘reading books’ — rare in California), and anti-Bush foreign policy. But you’re not an American.
What I’ll do… instead of “…similar to Indonesian”, I’ll mark your points of view as “… similar to the French”.
@ UP n
again, for everyone’s geographical sanity, I suggest you not hi-jack the word “American” to refer solely to USAmericans.
Afterall, Argentinians are American the same way that Mexicans are American.
Incidentally, are you saying California should be returned to it’s rightful owners (the Chicanos?). Why stop there, pati na rin Texas…:D
nash, your talking to me, or is it your accent? there’s a “beancurd” here, you know.
who wants hegemony? imagining its possibility is not the same as wanting it. one american commenting about the possibility of a global nuclear war doesn’t necessarily mean he is obsessed with such a war.
cheers.
cvj,
e di doon mo kunin ang peklat mo. huwag kang manghusga tungkol sa terorismo at pumanig sa kahit kanino man hanggang wala kang peklat dahil hindi mo alam ang sinasabi mo. hindi mo laban ‘to.
nash: If the chicanos so desire, the US Border Patrol won’t stop the migration any migration back to Mexico. Now California and Texas do belong to the US. When money had changed hands and/or there are Torrens Titles or legal documents to authenticate things, then land-swaps or leases, be it 3 years ago or decades ago, is legal. Even Fidel Castro agrees with me (a treaty is a treaty is a treaty), which explains Gitmo on leased Cuban soil.
anyways,
what’s happening down in florida, is my man guliani “the man who miscalculated” winning already? wawa naman siya. i can’t believe how badly he handled his campaign. sayang the $3M, papremyo nalang sana sa wilyonaryo.
ps @ UP n. – isn’t it both sad and funny that Alaska was sold for a bargain.
Kung alam lang nilang may langis doon…
nash, sa palagay ko, kung china o japan ang nakabili non, wala ng kahoy, langis at wild life duon ngayon. pero seguro, mura naman ang langis, plywood, papel, sushi at venison.
What a bargain — the “Alaska Purchase”. Russia sold Alaska for $7.2million to USA. No way, they can get it back.
And I don’t know how China did it, I am sure they were under duress. Yet instead of a sale, all they signed was a 99-year lease. So China got Hongkong back without further bloodshed.
———-
Now Spain lost a war, but at least they got $20Million also. Philippines… ceded by Spain to USA via Treaty of Paris and $20million.
I’ve been to Japan hiking and as far as my limited experience there is concerned, they seem to be doing well with protecting their few remaining forests and the wildlife is booming.
(They are also severely overpopulated in the megalopolises, which is good in a way because the rural areas are left for agri)
But again, this comes at a price for the rest of the world. To keep their backyard in this pristine environment, they have to look elsewhere for certain consumables. The metals they need for the electronics industry is open pit mined in Russia (platinum, palladium) and Australia.
And sushi is always expensive. It will never be cheap unless you catch the fish and slice it yourself.
@ UP n,
kaya naman ang mga Moro, nagulat nalang pag-gising nila kinabukasan, “Ha? Paano kami nasama diyan sa Treaty of Paris na yan?”
Kami ring mga Igorot, nagulat rin, nabenta na pala kami eh hindi naman kami sakop masyado during that time. Kasi, the moral of the story “Learn the language lest you be sold in the market…”
You may have some chance if you know the language.
But they who do not know the language:sad:, along with the meek — they will not inherit the earth.
Nash: “and let me go back to your first statement: “who could possibly dominate the world, i would put my faith on the u.s.â€Â
“Only YOU and some Americans think this way. Why should you always think about “DOMINATING†kasi???”
Bencard thinks only USA could “dominate” the world, but vehemently rejects any other idea that suggests USA is, in fact, behaving like an imperial nation that it once was. Isn’t USA the touted Policeman of the world?
Proven benevolence? Another FACT to Bencard. Wonder how many Bencards believe that USA is “benevolent” and at the same time could “dominate” the world (isn’t it doing this now?).
Whereas benevolent assimilation has become a thing of the colonial past, seems that it lives on in some “colonized” minds.
deQuiros writes about Titsers, in particular, raising teacher salaries. “…. the Association of Concerned Teachers once used to call public school teachers “the new national animal,†having replaced the carabao for that dubious honor. No profession is more grossly overworked and underpaid.
Which is why public schools often resemble a tiangge, the teachers supplementing their income by selling tocino and bra payable in four “gives.†But which is better than soldiers supplementing their income by enforcing drug and gambling activities and robbing banks.”
@ UP n
Yup, we couldn’t say go away hijo de puta….
But in defense of Spain, they have come a long way. When they suffered those March Bombings, they did not go on raising flags and looking for a place to blame and bomb to oblivion in retaliation. The repudiated a government which dragged them into the mess, withdrew their troops from an upopular war, and went about their police business quietly. And contrary to all those stereotypes of fumbling spanish police, their secret service caught most (if not all) of the culprits.(Partida pa ha, dahil unlike the UK, Madrid has very few CCTVs)
I visited Atocha recently and it’s again a bustling train station.
I wrote this comment at 6:25.
While the poor will meet the basic needs first except for their vices which they justify to be their only comfort for their depression the people belonging to higher income bracket will spend more on other non-food stuffs.
You refer to Starbucks as non-staples. That’s a luxury for the poor.
Luxury is different from vice.
And Solita’s observation is that the percentage for the drinks and smokes have increased.
What I disputed in the observation is the reason she gave for the increase, drinking to forget about their misery. Sheesh.
Rich and poor drink when lonely or happy; the only difference is in the kind of wine they drink.
Solita’s explanation about the increase of percentage of food expenses to total income is the decrease in the income.
What she failed to account is the addition of members in the family.
Say of example in 2003, there are only the couple and two children. In 2006, there must have two additional children. The income of the family may not have changed but the food expenses increased.
We’re talking about basic commodities such as food which comprised . What you mentioned are luxury items.
Devils
Not that I do not agree with you re Gozon and Lopez but don’t you think the masses also asks for it? Try showing documentaries in these shows and guess what the masses will do.
I guess the question will get thrown back at you if ever you face these guys…so what will you show them? And how will you make them sit still and watch. At the end of the day, the institutions they run are still businesses beholden to their stockholders…
Supremo
CVJ has a very romantic view of the world. Wala ka nang magagawa diyan. Bata pa kasi. ANg galing niya kasi magsalita kasa he’s holed up in SIngapore, the land of the free….;-)
nash: Your comments about Spain’s reaction re bombings. Well-verbalized… I’ll remember. And what has happened from Spain the imperial power of centuries ago is done — you study for history, not to seek reparations.
[Now those terrorist cells that struck Madrid were, indeed, operating on their own, totally independent from the terrorists who struck SuperFerry14. The Bin-laden Al Qaeida virus has mutated on its own in separate countries. The terrorist in some cave somewhere provides inspiration, not command-and-control.]
hawaiianguy : Are you really in Hawaii? I know that there is an “Independence for Texas” movement: a number of the leaders and “cells” are, in fact, on the FBI tracking sheets. Is there an “Independence for Hawaii” movement?
hawaiianguy : Forget my question. Wikipedia points to “Nation of Hawaii”, “Ka Lahui” and others. Some seek total independence; others seek “nation-within-a-nation” (similar to the status of Native American tribes but based purely on ancestry).
federation with indonesia is a longstanding dream. mlq proposed it during the war, and the proposal was revived in the maphilindo years.
Minor side-note: There are Alaskan separatists, too.
UPnS, re “independence for Hawaii”
Sort of, but they call it “Hawaiian sovereignty movement.” Kind of “nation with a nation” concept, not really an independent or separate state. Secession is futile now, residents would not go to war or launch an offensive to make this happen.
The Akaka Bill that bolsters this movement began in 2000 (still in Congress now). It seeks recognition for the rights of Native Hawaiians, much like what the feds already granted to some American Indian nations.
While the Hawaiians were not bombed to submission like the American Indians, their last monarch (Queen Lili’uokalani) was deposed in 1893. Later she was forced to abdicate her Kingdom after spending time behind bars. Hawaii became a republic a year in 1894, affirming the “Bayonet Constitution†written earlier by the white men, and was eventually annexed by Uncle Sam in 1898.
Guess the strategic connection of Hawaii and the Philippines.
Hawaii became a republic in 1894, affirming the “Bayonet Constitution†written earlier by the white men but opposed by the Queen. The new Republic was eventually annexed by Uncle Sam in 1898, becoming a Territorial Possession like the Philippine Islands and others occupied by Spain in the Pacific.
ha?
the beauty of stratified random sampling is that you’d be able to compare and show the normals pattern between two time series. unless there was an effective population program to curtail or to encourgage human production, one can assume that the mean average family size of filipinos between 2003 and 2006 would not be statistically different. i reckon the mean size would be 5, standard deviation of 2. so why would i be bothered if there was an increase in the number of children of ONE family who is unlikely to be sampled again in the next survey?
“Bata pa kasi”
Argumentum ad Hominem.
hawaiianguy: thanks!
nash: am sure you’ve heard — Rudy Guiliani Florida-or-nothing bet imploded!!!! About 2 weeks ago, I heard a commentator remark — Rudy : people liked him, until they heard him talk.
IF you do not know how the GDP is derived, don’t start with me.
This is not one of your SWS survey where they test the perceptions.
DOn’t talk to me about stratified sampling and margin of error if you are not very well verse in this topic. I hate debating with people who insist what little they know and try to be an expert.
Nash
Am just to get at the point that CVJ has a very idealistic view of how things CAN work considering what he wants to impose on the world. That’s why I said “bata pa kasi” I do understand why it’s Argumentum ad hominem.
C aT
Galing mo sumagot!
C at
Dami kasi nagpapaka expert…pero ang pagka expert nila at the level of theory lang….di naman sila on the ground…alam mo naman sa school, maraming mga assumptions di ba?
Silent Waters,
cvj is older than me.
well, I will admit, I am sure to be older than him…I am jaded na kasi as I’ve seen them all…
thanks silent waters but honestly, I hate myself for writing that kind of remark,
it is just some people by now should know me better. i don’t join the discussion not unless i am well-versed with the topic. and there are just some commenters who do not realize that yet.
tama ka diyan, ca’t. karamihan, basta may masabi lang, kahit baluktot hindi na sana baleng mag-egotrip, basta may katuturan ang sinasabi. away-ideya and kailangan natin, hindi away-personalan.
Ca t & cvj: The metrics being tracked are NOT per-household. So a 30% increase in a household’s food expenditures (because of 2 add’l mouths to feed) does not translate into a 30% rise in food expenditures per-capita.
There is a NEDA report out in the web, and it states: the average nominal incomes of families in the bottom 30% grew faster at 17.5% compared to families in the upper 70% which grew by 15.9% from 2003 to 2006.
Regarding OFW remittances, the PCIJ blogsite has one reader stating “…, based on the NSO questionnaire, cash receipts, gifts, support, relief and other forms of assistance from abroad form part of family income. This category of income source is specifically classified into:
1. Cash received from family members who are contract workers
2. Cash received from family members who are working abroad
3. Pensions, retirement, workmen’s compensation and other benefits
4. Cash gifts, support, relief, etc. from abroad
5. Dividends from investment abroad
So the question becomes how to reconcile the following two sentences:
Monsod/Inquirer article says : “… from 2003 to 2006, what with average incomes of the bottom 30 percent decreasing”
NEDA, citing FIES, saying : “the average nominal incomes of families in the bottom 30% grew faster at 17.5%… from 2003 to 2006″
first rule in critical analysis: search for the original source and its rationale. it’s plain and simple academic rule.
fies=family income expediture SURVEY. one is bound by its parameters and limitations, and so was how monsod constrained her discussion.
so bencard, which part of my thread was i ego tripping? like did i post a resume of my academic background: consultant dito, consultant doon, or that ‘d announce to all and sundry that i won’t be able to join the forum for the weekend because i have work to do with this ibmnopqrst company? like as if this appeal to authority strengthens one’s argument?
i reacted only to the question i quoted, and contextualized it from where it is ORIGINALLY sourced. now refute me on this basis. but then again what do i know about multivariate statistics, right?
darn, i don’t know how to insert benigno’s wink-wink.
i-ni-emilie : if you remove % from the keystrokes %:wink: % (and don’t forget the space before 1st colon and the space after last colon), you get
inodoro n.e., i was not referring to you, i’m sorry. yes, i can attest to the fact that you have never engaged in any sort of ego-tripping in this blog. we have differences of opinions but i always respect your point of view as, i’m sure, you do mine.
Ca t: No worries!! I think we’ve synched up. a 30% increase in a household’s food expenditures (because of 2 add’l mouths to feed) does not translate into a 30% rise in food expenditures per-capita
got that test right, hehe.
bencard: copy that.
Regarding FIES for 2006 vs 2003. Conclusions have been made and articles published since October 2007. Back then, PDIC wrote:
“NATIONAL SCENE
Poorest Pinoys spending more, earning less. Higher prices have taken their toll on the poor. The poorest families are now spending more and earning less, according to the latest preliminary results of the 2006 Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) Tuesday. The FIES showed that poor families, or those belonging to the bottom 30-percent income group, spent P153,000 last year but only earned P148,000. While these figures are higher than the P125,000-worth income and P128,000-worth expenditures in 2003, the difference is higher in 2006 at P5,000 a year than in 2003’s P3,000 a year. The NSO said for every P100 spent by these economic sectors in 2006, P59 went to food, compared with only P48 in 2003. Consequently, there was a decrease in the share of other expenditure items like rent, which dropped to 9 percent from 12.7 percent.”
inodoro: you just did wink. There are others, for example, Instead of wink, you can use:
smile to get 
sad to get 
and then there is cool 
grin to get
cry to get
oops to get
up n: mind also sharing the the codes for these?
ah, ok, you just gave them.
I just found the FIES numbers and, using my dictionary, Monsod had obfuscated. The FIES tables used 3 categories : income, expenditures and savings. Income will include wages, salaries, OFW remittances that a family may have received from relatives. Expenditures include food, cigarette, housing costs, education costs, etc. Savings = Income less expenditures.
The FIES table show that per-household-income between 2003 and 2006 INCREASED for every decile. For the lowest/poorest decile, the increase was 27.3%.
Even after adjusting for inflation (adjustment factor is 1.19612) income still increased. The 27.3% number gets lowered to still a positive 6.4% number.
As expected, EXPENDITURES also increased. The per-household expenditure for decile 1/poorest went from 48 to 61 (a 27.1% increase). This means income for decile-1 went up faster than their expenditures! {However, expenditures went up faster than income for deciles 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10.}
You can find the website by doing a google for “fies philippines 2006 FAMILY INCOME AND EXPENDITURE SURVEY”.
Monsod obfuscated by using a terminology “real income” which resembled a line-item in FIES. Monsod not only did not clarify that her “real income” does not conform to standard accounting terminology, she shifted the discussion to GDP after planting the “income had decreased” statement.
UPn, i think Monsod understands that GDP per capita income is a different measure from Average Family income as gathered from the FIES. She was not saying that both are identical. However, since both are measures of income (though using different approaches), she is questioning why one shows an increase and the other shows a decrease.
Regarding your stats (at 8:28 above), can you provide the link so i can verify?
BTW, real income is a term used to contrast with nominal income. The latter normalizes for the effects of inflation between the periods being compared. That’s standard in economics.
Upn, the last paragraph in my above comment addresses your comment at 3:06AM above. It is disingenuous for NEDA to trumpet nominal income because a large part of the increase could be simply due to inflation.
cvj, here’s the original source. you can also peruse tables on the sidebar.
http://www.census.gov.ph/data/pressrelease/2007/ie06tx.html
I read Monsod’s article. There’s no mention of “GDP” there, only FIES.
UPnS, the “increases” in all deciles are illusory and deceptive, if you don’t factor in, say, the consumer price index, inflation, or the number of families that share the economic pie (to get per capita).
For example, CPI tells you how much you can buy with P100 in 2006 and 2003. Apparently, your P100 in 2003 can’t buy you the same goods and services 3 yrs later. That’s what “real” income translates into.
InE: Yes, you’re right. Better go to the “original” source, rather than rely on the analysis made by others (like S. Monsod, Carmelita Ericta, etc.).
cvj: The links (for the sources) are -
1) http://www.census.gov.ph/data/sectordata/2006/ie0604.htm
2) http://www.census.gov.ph/data/sectordata/2006/ie0602.htm
3) http://www.census.gov.ph/data/sectordata/2006/ie0605.htm
Thanks Hawaiianguy!
From the percentages you quoted above, i believe you are referring to Table 2a which is actually not the right table for our discussion. That table shows total income and not average income per family (Look at the table headings). The latter is what is relevant to our discussion. Average income per family, which is shown in Table 2b. If you apply the adjustment factor of 1.19612 on the per-household expenditure for decile 1/poorest…
Current Prices:
2006 – 32
2003 – 27
You will see that there is a decrease as per below:
Constant Prices:
2006 – 26.75 (32 divided by 1.19612)
2003 – 27
As Hawaiianguy pointed out above, adjusted for inflation, the poorest decile experienced a decrease of income per family.
(Hawaiianguy, just to clarify, my comment above is a response to UPn Student’s comment at 8:28am.)
hawaiianguy: (1) I factored in 2003-to-2006 inflation in my computations. For all deciles, even after adjusting for inflation (adjustment factor is 1.19612) income still increased. What Monsod said in her article is:
Which brings us to the bad news, which we all have already heard: average family incomes decreased in real terms (2) cvj/Ca t got caught into guess-timating about the “gdp anomaly” because of the Monsod article.
cvj: I’m disappointed that Monsod alluded to a nebulous “gdp per capita income” anomaly and did not provide the magnitude of the anomaly or even the base numbers.
We can actually go back to the official statistics and verify the anomaly for ourselves. From there, we could see that from 2003 to 2006, per capita GDP increasedL by 10.6 percent while average income per family decreased by 2.8 percent.
BTW, if we do the numbers, the same sort of divergence between FIES and per capita GDP can be seen on the 1997 to 200 and 2000 to 2003 periods. Only the 1994 to 1997 period shows a consistent increase between the two.
cvj / hawaiianguy: let me find my Excel worksheet. I may have done a “NEDA” and worked with Total-Income…
You may be looking at the wrong table (Table 2a). You need to apply your adjustment factor on Table 2b instead.
Got it! Per-household statistics becomes Bottom-decile1:income up 18.5%, decile10 up 14.9% (both below inflation 19.1%)
Expenditures: bottom decile1 up 20.7%, decile10 up 19.7%.
So everyone’s income got “clobbered” by inflation. But the top-decile “fared the worst”
(which supports GINI having improved)
(Ninth-decile of P290K per year income is $
Income-equality worse for Philippines than Thailand.
Pct-share of household income top 20% … RP 53%, Thai 49%
Pct-share of household income bottom 40% RP 13%, Thai 16%
UPn Student (at 1:50 pm), yes everyone’s incomes got “clobbered” by inflation. That’s the reason why Monsod is asking why does per capita GDP reflect the opposite. If everyone’s incomes (from poorest to richest) did not keep up with inflation, then why did per capita GDP increase over the same period? That just doesn’t add up.
Sounds reasonable, especially since metrics-per-capita (when family sizes are increasing) should do “worse” than metrics-per-household. I suppose the answer is in the details. (Ca t may know the answer to this question:) What “things” get added into GDP that does not get added into income, or vice-versa?
UPN et cvj
tama na yan, baka mapagsabihan kayo ng “don’t debate with me about economics”
Nash, sanay na ako.
INE, just saw your link, thanks as well.
Conclusion: OFW-income makes GMA looks good one more time.
To get from GDP to National Income, one has to factor in (i) depreciation, (ii) indirect tax, and (iii) Filipino income earned overseas, and (iv) Income earned by Foreigners on Philippine soil.
NDP= GDP – Depreciation
NI=NDP-Net foreign income earned in @@@- Indirect tax
NDP = net domestic product
NI = national income
Net foreign income earned in… = (income earned by the rest of the world – income earned from the rest of the world)
[ I don't have numbers, but my sentiment is that
OFW-income explains the "gdp-vs-income" anomaly and that OFW-income increased much more dramatically 2003-to-2006 than income-by-foreigners-from-Philippine operations. ]
oooops… NI = ( GDP plus OFW-income) less ( others }
Forget what I said…
Now I have to figure out if I need to worry definitions for “national income” and “family income”.
Maybe the answer is a dramatic increase in income earned by foreigners from Philippine operations , like mining. Someone better send a check to Monsod to pay for one consultancy-hour so she nails this question down.
UPn (at 2:23am), perhaps you’re right. I was also thinking along those lines although i had in mind income paid to foreigners for smuggled goods. Yeah, i’m hoping the economists should look for an explanation especially that this sort of divergence has been happening for the past 10 years (since 1997). It’s a wonder that Monsod only pointed this out last week.
Mangahas, in an Oct 2007 article, also mentioned the “GDP-is-up but Income-is-down” anomaly. He acknowledged a discrepancy; provided no explanation. In fact, he said
I accept the contemporaneous growth in GNP and decline in family income as factual results of the best efforts of the government statisticians. The growth in one and decline in the other are not contradictory.
At the same time, I do not suppose that either set of data is perfect. Surely both sets can be improved, in terms of estimation procedures. But until such improvements are made, one must make use of everything that is available. To accept one set of data as fact and deny the other set as falsehood would be foolish.
FIES reports total 2006-family income at P3-trillion (nominal), or about US$62Billion (using 48-to-1 exchange). Much more important, family-income is only 50% of Philippine GDP which is $115Billion. This means that if the unlucky-half goes “down 3%” and the other half goes up “7%”, then GDP will go up 2%.
As for mining : December 2004 is when the Phil Supreme Court handed down a ruling permitting foreign investments in the Philippine mining sector.
You get voted into Malacanang at the FIES-household-by-household level but the big bucks are at the GDP tens-of-billions-of-dollars level.
Read the fine print when going over GNP/GDP growth by the expenditure approach or the value added approach through production. The estimates for the informal sector is huge.
It is a broad estimated measure of expenditures of the three main agents in the economy. Business, government and households and the glaring statistical discrepancy that comes with it that will reach 5% of the total figure estimated. It does not measure whether expenditures are made by cash or credit. The statistical discrepancy to round off figures includes the informal sector – smuggling.
In the Philippine context
GNP which includes income flows from abroad minus income flows outbound + GDP= PCE (includes annual household, government and business consumption) +public and private capital formation + export -import of goods and services. (almost always negative)
It is the net income that comes from OFWs that covers the merchandise trade deficit and sometimes the service trade deficit.
If there was an honest to goodness audit of the volume of smuggled items it would reach close to $5-10 billion dollars.
The value added method measuring of economic activity is easier to do since formal producers have to file their reports to the government. Out total exposure to foreign trade is over $90 billion (exports +imports)officially.Our OFW incomes also pay for the cost of foreign capital being repatriated abroad apart from profits from foreign investments on top of imports.
You add the net inflows of hot money in the financial markets and you have a strong peso.
It is in the expenditure report where government is hard pressed to get data. That is what fiscal policy is all about. But only 2M+ out of a potential labor force of 45+ million file an income tax return and pay income taxes.
Another important feature of measuring incomes or consumption alone by this method misses the income gains through capital gains. This is for the rich and landlords. . Their peso assets are more valuable today than two years ago. They can buy more dollars with less pesos. Housing prices in the Bay area (S.F.) of the U.S. and in Manhattan are as strong as ever. Foreign money is keeping valuations up.
A lot of rich people are now turning over their properties to be liquefied through property developments. Foremost of them is Mar Roxas of the Araneta Center. Megaworld is building condos and office spaces for BPO services on the property of Mar Roxas and family. Hence he has to protect his interest and ask for a strong dollar because if the currency bubble in pesos strength were allowed to fester they would lose their markets for BPO and condos for OFW would become too expensive.
The capital gains in land valuations for the Mar Roxas family in the Araneta Center will not show in the expenditure report nor in the value added report through production.
hvrds, thanks for the explanation and pointing us to the fine print. (among others, i stand corrected in my comment at January 28th, 2008, 8:58 pm above). i’ll incorporate this (and other parts of your comments) in my analysis. i’m consolidating my thoughts in this blog entry:
http://www.cvjugo.blogspot.com/2008/01/tale-of-two-statistics-family-income.html
If as you say…
“Another important feature of measuring incomes or consumption alone by this method misses the income gains through capital gains. This is for the rich and landlords.”
…then that means our Gini coefficient understates the level of inequality.
Upn, i agree that GDP is a measure of Business Income + Family income. A portion of that business income should go to households (as dividends or reduction in equity). You’re therefore right to point out that there is a big portion of business (or non-family) income.
It could be possible, as you say, that a portion of that 115 billion are business profits that are repatriated to foreign nationals. (hvrds mentioned above that it is ofw remittances that facilitates this repatriation)
It could also be additions to retained earnings, but if this is the case, we have to question why this does not show up as an increase in capital formation.
This leads us to a third (non-mutually exclusive) possibility that it reflects capital gains on real estate that hvrds has mentioned in his post. If so, then this is probably one area of the economy that needs to be considered for further taxation.
I agree that both figures are most likely the obtained from the best efforts of the government statisticians who have no political agenda. However, i disagree that we can simply accept the discrepancy without understanding where these come from. It makes sense to understand what goes behind each of this conflicting descriptions of economic reality in order to evaluate the normative claims that are made in conjunction with these statistics.
For example, you notice that the present administration has been emphasizing one aspect, i.e. Growth in gdp as an economic achievement while downplaying the fact that since 1997, average family income has been falling back to late 1980′s levels.
cvj: You’ve already identified a “traditional” equation for GDP, namely:
gdp = pce + gc + cf + x – m
where:
pce -> Personal Consumption Expenditure
gc -> Government Consumption
cf -> Fixed capital formation
x -> Exports
m -> Imports
Again, Philippine 2006 GDP is about $115Billion
(while FIES reports total 2006-family income at P3-trillion (nominal), or about US$62Billion (using 48-to-1 exchange).)
See below for a description of how FIES is obtained. It uses about 41,000 household “sample-points (out of a total of 17,403,000 households as of 2006).
How is it conducted?
The FIES is conducted through personal interviews using a family schedule or questionaire called FIES Form 1.
The respondent for FIES is any knowledgeable and responsible member of the sample family.
What are the areas covered in the sample survey?
The FIES covers all 78 provinces of the country including all cities and municipalities in Metro Manila. The sample includes 3,416 enumeration areas or barangays with approximately 41,000 sample households.
What specific data are obtained?
Source(s) of family income, in cash or in kind such as:
..salaries and wages from regular, seasonal, or occassional employment
..net share of crops, fruits and vegetables produced or livestock and poultry raised by other households
..enterpreneurial activities
..other sources of income (cash receipts from abroad, domestic sources, and others)
Level of family consumption by expenditure item such as:
..food, alcoholic beverages, and tobacco
..fuel, light and water; transportation and communication; and household operations
..personal care and effects, clothing, footwear, and other wear
..education, recreation, and medical care
..furnishing and equipment
..taxes
..housing, house maintenance and minor repairs
..miscellaneous expenditures
..other disbursements
Number of family members employed for pay or profit, or as wage, salary or own-account workers
Housing characteristics of families, their facilities, utilities, and others
Other related information
up n:
this should clear up all these prententious display of expertise in gdp when one has not even gone to the fies original source to determine how much it accounts as a component of the national income measurement, and for treating the survey (oh, but were you not flag down for suggesting that a survey of sort even exist?) as if it were a longitudinal study (“hey monsod did not factor in increases in family membership”).
of course you know where am coming from, up n.
i-n-e: cheers!! no worries… the sun shines, if not tomorrow, then the day after.
nash,
“basta ako puzzled talaga ako. tito vic and joey have probably earned more individually than willie and yet i don’t see them driving ferraris.”
but Tito Sotto owns a BMW dealership!
nash, anthony..read a newspaper story about these two main characters in our city, both notorious it their own way. one is Peter Munk, miner, philantrophist, and the other, Conrad Black, newspaper magnate, Lord of Crossharbour, both wealthy. The story goes this way..Black showed Peter Munk his customized Aston Martin and Peter asked him how He could afford It? Of course we all Knew that Black was convicted of Frauds and Mail Frauds in the U.S. while Peter Munk was so honoured of giving more than $80 Millions of his Personal wealth for the University Hospital Heart and Lung Centre…even wealthy people are different….
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