Escalation

Before we get to the blast at the Batasan Pambansa, let’s set the scene, as it was, yesterday, prior to the explosion.

The way Amando Doronila sees it, Political scandals undermining the economy, and foreign observers, too, see it the same way, as shown by this snippet:

Frederic Neumann wrote in a commentary: “We view the recent political scandals as severely undermining the President’s ability to persuade the Congress to pass new policy initiatives to advance structural reforms … The scandals will make it harder for the President to advance a new wave of policy reforms, especially relating to improving the underlying public finance sector finances.”

Neumann noted that the government had made a commitment to wipe out its budget deficits and was closing in on its full-year deficit target of P63 billlion, with the help of privatization proceeds, but its fiscal performance was “less impressive,” suggesting that more reforms were needed.

Doronila seems to have a view that’s very different from the triumphalist tones of the President herself, who seems to be crowing that her economic work is done. In Arroyo shifts focus from economic to political reforms, she is quoted as having said,

Now that we have straightened out the economy, it is time to push for political reforms. Let us reduce conflict, fight corruption, and put the welfare of the ordinary Filipino first,” Arroyo said.

But there’s something ironic in a political animal bellowing about being a beast (though a very well-educated ones with academic credentials) if it was funny-ha-ha to have the Speaker thundering on about a “moral revolution,” isn’t it funny-hee-hee, now that Arroyo blames politics for causing suicide, murder:

Arroyo called on her critics anew to focus on promoting development, this time blaming politics for the deaths of Marianette Amper, the 12-year-old girl who committed suicide in Davao due to poverty, and Alioden Dalaig, the poll official gunned down last Saturday.

“Many Filipinos are experiencing poverty since some of the country’s leaders are preoccupied with their self-interests rather than the welfare of the nation.

“On the other hand, there are politicians and groups who have no heart and conscience and are ready to use violence to attain their ambitions,” she said in a speech at the National Anti-Poverty Commission (NAPC) meeting yesterday in Malacañang.

“The preoccupation with politics, past and present, does not promote the stability, policy continuity, security and peace and order that we will need to continue to move our country forward.”

But then of course she knows whereof she speaks, so there’s nothing funny about it, at all. Point is, the President was going on the political offensive, on the premise that (unlike the view of the foreign observers mentioned by Doronila) everything economics-wise, was shipshape. While Marvin A. Tort delves into the merits and demerits of the appreciating peso, the President, long a fetishist of the “strong peso equals a Strong Republic” sort, has no choice but to ponder relief to stave off the worst effects of the appreciating peso (the majority of the two articles above, describe the relief efforts the President’s decreed as a kind of series of emergency measures, which will help the poor but leaves exporters vulnerable still).

The best defense being a good offense, the President knew full well that the opposition had left her self-innoculation devoid of oomph. As the Inquirer editorial today puts it, the President’s reliance on a tactical, and not ethical, approach to questions as to her legitimacy or fitness for office, has reached the end of the road:

This has led to the adoption by the administration of a tactical, instead of ethical, approach to the impeachment process. Yet the kind of people involved — politicians — then and now aren’t very different. Quirino faced vicious infighting within his Liberal Party reminiscent of the intramurals between Kampi and Lakas today, with a relatively small opposition hounding both Presidents.

Indeed the only difference we see is that Quirino genuinely believed in his innocence and trusted the process. Quirino knew, as one of the framers of the 1935 Constitution, what impeachment is: a means by which a nation being governed badly can gain relief. As chief executive he asserted that relief was unnecessary; as a lawyer, he knew his salvation lay in confronting his accusers and opening access to information, and presenting evidence.

In contrast, President Macapagal-Arroyo mistrusts the process and the people in it. Her allies and critics in the House have conspired to approve rules that deny impeachable officials proper vindication not only before the House, but in the court of public opinion. And the Supreme Court, too, has handed down decisions that have mutated impeachment into a race to file weak complaints to stave off genuine ones.

In other words, all three branches of government are stuck in a trap, with each blaming the other for tying its hand, resulting in what we have today. Yet among these institutions, it is the House that still has in its hands the means to pass new rules in keeping with those of 1949. But it won’t, because it prefers the Palace cash buffet. Its members worship at the altar of Mammon instead of the altar of public duty.

Everything else, House-wise, on the part of the majority is bravado on the part of those left holding the bag: House majority rebuffs minority boycott of impeach hearings.

And also, because the best defense is a good offense, this took place: Panlilio, 8 more charged with bribery over Palace handouts. This was something people saw coming: Ateneo official rallies support for embattled Panlilio.

And also, because the best defense is a good offense, just as whistle blowers get the book thrown at them, anyone showing any kind of independence within the ruling coalition gets the Palace pit bills unleashed on them. Manuel Buencamino pens an open letter not for the faint of heart to Juan Ponce Enrile, senior Palace pit bull.

And so, having set the scene, let’s move on to the Batasan blast. I’d just emerged from a dinner conversation with a foreign businessman who was quite worried over the effect the appreciating peso was having on ordinary people and, of course, on the bigger Filipino exporters and other businessmen with whom he did business, and who now had to put plans for expanding or upgrading their equipment on hold (for my part, I traded notes on the true extent of smuggling which is also devastating legitimate businesses). The businessman was particularly puzzled by how the appreciating peso was resulting in an increase in the cost of basic commodities, which then led to a discussion on rice and sugar smuggling, etc.

Ironically, the businessman began our conversation by telling me how he’d first arrived in the Philippines on August 21, 1983, and the pandemonium that had ensued at the Manila International Airport as he arrived shortly before Ninoy Aquino’s flight. Anyway, as I left the meeting, I received a text asking for confirmation of the blast, and so contacted colleagues in the Inquirer who confirmed it; and so it went until midnight, when the President made a brief statement. What struck me most was the quavery voice of Rep. Darlene Custodio.

The initial responses on the blogosphere run the gamut of points of view, and helps provide an insight into the public’s reaction to the news. Whether its Shasha says or Andre’s Journal! a common reaction, on one part, is to be stupefied-and-angry (or relieved to be headed abroad, like Badfish) or simply astounded, like spiderye, or being held hostage by a creeping feeling that there’s an unfolding plot, and of God-knows-what to come, as blue law by anna writes:

Holy shit. They are NOT stopping. People kasi were criticizing them before, eh why the common tao your targeting, during the Glorietta bombing, so now I guess they’re trying to prove a point, that even law-makers, wala, nothing fazes or scares us, we WILL get our point across. What point ba???!!! What do they want? My god, when the Glorietta bombing went off, I felt really bad and angry, but I didn’t feel scared pa rin. I mean, I wasn’t afraid to go malling still or go around public places. But with this Batasan bombing, I’m like, oh my god, I got a really really bad feeling in my stomach, like, of things to come, this is probably not the end of it. Punyeta silang lahat. Nakaraos na yung bayan from our history of violence and unrest tapos ngayon binabalik balik nila.

Or simply being ticked off, as OLSEN 3 was, of people immediately cracking jokes. Outside Manila, in Antique, Antikenyo says people shrugged it off.

Inner Sanctum runs through all the conspiracy theories, and correctly points out,

While there’s nothing new about politicians getting murdered, it’s the audacity of the attack that sends jitters to most people, including myself. I don’t recall lawmakers’ domains (in this case, the Batasang Pambansa) ever getting bombed. If I’m not mistaken, this is the first time that an attack happened right inside the compound that houses congress.

Piercing Pens tackles other possibilities. Though New Philippine Revolution, a few days back, insisted a pattern of resistance is emerging, I’m still skeptical -coordination has not been a characteristic of the groups opposed to the administration, who more often than not, can barely manage to talk civilly to each other.

As it stands, the initial details are fully covered by the papers, see Bomb rocks Congress; solon among 3 killed and Police recover mobile phone at Congress blast site. And Arroyo creates task force vs political violence.

Even as Akbar dies, Teves in critical condition, and media attention therefore focuses on ‘Akbar, wives controlled Basilan’ (going back even further, see Ellen Tordesillas’ Akbar and the ghost of the Lamitan siege and this profile in the San Francisco Chronicle) that old reliable had to shoot his mouth off yet again: Gonzales: ‘We got the warning two weeks ago’.

You know, Gonzales didn’t help matters during the Glorietta blast, and he isn’t helping matters now. Just as one question -who was the target?- is only beginning to be resolved, Gonzales helps raise even more questions -if the target was Akbar, and government knew, why then, did the assassination (if that’s what it was) take place? The government will announce its suspects soon enough, but that, too, will raise more questions, I’m sure.

Anyway, if Akbar was the target, then it’s no different from the assassinations of other congressmen in Metro Manila right before the May elections. It shows that congressmen aren’t beyond vendetta killings formerly restricted to their home provinces -and a general deterioration in the ability of the authorities to maintain law and order.

The collateral damage, if that’s all it was, right at the House of Representatives, also sends a message that I suspect was the cause of Darlene Custodio’s quavery voice, as she described the scene at the time. They are all in it together, and in the end, enemies of the representatives aren’t interested in separating the sheep from the goats.

for me, what is significant is that it’s unclear who, precisely, dismissed the House security detail in the wake of the bombing. If it was the Speaker, then that’s fine; if it was the Secretary of the Interior, that’s an infringement on the independence of the House. This is no trivial matter, even if justified by the authorities as a question of security. If the Palace, in charge of the police power, cocoons representatives and senators in security, the legislators shouldn’t forget that it was an imposition. So far, that hasn’t happened; the Secretary of the Interior has merely offered additional security to legislators if and when they request it, which is the absolutely right way to approach security concerns.

More on Rep. Akbar in reason is the reason:

The lowdown the wife and I got from Dr. J, who was working at the FEU Hospital near the Batasang Pambansa Complex, was that the bomb had been intended for Congressman Wahab Akbar, the Distinguished Gentleman from Basilan.

An interview I heard on the radio later confirmed that the blast had likely come from a remote-controlled IED, detonated by someone within visual range of Akbar.

Akbar had unfortunately developed a routine that his enemies were quick to use to their advantage — he would have his driver pick him up at the same exit, so conveniently close to the motorcycle parking area where a bomb could easily be transported and hidden.

A quick Google search seems to indicate that Akbar had had it coming. He was alleged to have been in cahoots with the Abu Sayyaf commanders holed up in the Lamitan siege: “a group of army officers, ASG members and local governor Wahab Akbar split ransom money that they received for the ‘escape’ of three hostages in the early stages of the episode.”

In a controversial privilege speech, Akbar also claimed that 80% of Filipino Muslims were sympathetic to the Abu Sayyaf. In the same speech, Akbar made the bold claim “I am Basilan” — which wouldn’t be far from the truth, considering that two of his wives have won the top elective positions in the island province.

There’s a moral to be found here, where a man can claim to personify a violent, backward province one day — and end up riddled with shrapnel the next.

That, indeed, may be all there is to it. Live by the sword, die by the sword. If this is what happened, then the question is, just how firmly the government can clamp down if the suspects prove to be from the military, whether in the service, or AWOL.

As Ricky Carandang points out, it’s business as usual:

What happens next is anyone’s guess, but the House leadership has said that the incident will not prevent them from fulfilling their duty of killing the latest impeachment complaint against President Arroyo.

And indeed, mission accomplished: House committee rejects new impeach rap vs Arroyo.

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Manuel L. Quezon III.

319 thoughts on “Escalation

  1. While everyone in the Philippines delights in the discussion about economy, the peso dollar rate and other things related, the very sad fact is that we are being buffeted by huge propeller wash caused in an ocean of huge mega ships while we are trying desperately to bale water out of our tiny banca with Big Mike and GMA at the helm.

    Somehow I guess we need it to ratify ourselves that we are important in a world of behemoths.

    http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/delong64

    “Richard Nixon’s treasury secretary, John Connally, once told a group of European leaders that while the dollar was America’s currency, its misalignment was Europe’s problem. Today, the misalignment of the dollar – and the euro – against the renminbi and other Asian currencies is increasingly becoming Asia’s problem.”

    “J. Bradford DeLong, Professor of Economics at the University of California at Berkeley, was Assistant US Treasury Secretary during the Clinton administration.”

  2. “National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales on Wednesday said an intelligence report on the threat to the life of Basilan Representative Wahab Akbar was received two weeks ago.

    “We got the warning two weeks ago. This could have an implication on who killed him,” said Gonzales.”

    Do you believe this?

    Why didn’t they do anything about so-called security report?

    Why did it happen in the highly secured Batasan complex?

  3. if Rep. Akbar was the target, a professional assassin would wisely and on orders take out the lawmaker in a surgical manner — Akbar alone! not in the freaking way that it was done right in the premises of the Congress of the Philippines! with so many others killed/injured and such a visual evidence of destruction!!

    the message is chilling indeed. JDV has not suddenly turned saint now that he recently went against GMA for he’s one of those who propped this rotten corrupt political system, but i agree with him that the target was Congress, not Akbar. GMA is not above using gold in such a galling manner so that she could stay in power, she’s not above using terrorism such as the bombing in Congress so that she could hang on to power. will she eventually do a Musharraf? she would, it that’s what it takes!

  4. The trouble is the Human Security Act of 2007 (Republic Act No. 9327) or the Anti-Terror Law cannot be applied to the Batasan blast because the law is deemed suspended 2 months after the conduct of any election as provided in the law itself. We just had election last October 29. In effect, this law has no tooth on circumstances like this.

  5. To indulge inodoro ni emilie: I thought the explosion was caused by the collective fart of congressmen reeling from Php200,000 eating spree.

  6. I wonder if anyone is paying any attention to the driver who was likewise killed, and the family he left behind.

  7. Joselito,

    kaya nga dapat ibasura na yan batas na yan. punishable naman under the Revised Penal Code yun nangyari sa batasan

  8. Madonna,

    Kasi december weather na…malamig…so those motorcycle assassins don’t really want to do drive by shootings….bomba na lang at cell phone habang nagkakape sa Starbucks

  9. i just find it wierd that the gov’t/la gloria tells the public not to speculate — when it’s the police that’s right on the dot on making speculations first — in this case, the take-out Akbar theory — without presenting solid/physical/inconvertible evidence and doing thorough investigation first — not the hogwash that norberto gozales is peddling that there were intel reports about plans to kill akbar — or as ncrpo chief barias that since the mortorcycle that was the source of the bomb was located near akbar’s vehicle, ergo Akbar is the target…what kind of puny logic is this? he carefully avoided the observation na the same motorcycle ay, nakapark near the entrance lobby ng KONGRESO NG PILIPINAS. had rep. teves died too they would be scrambling for another theory to explain what happened. only the most powerful thugs who are in power in this country would dare stage something like this.

    i think most people are not so sympathetic. e kung bombahin ang kongreso na pinamumuhayan ng mga buwaya, they deserve it eh.

    as for me, i’m an ordinary citizen i have the right to be paranoid and to speculate. so fuck gma on calls for the public not to speculate… makapagkape na nga lang sa starbucks! lol, on the other hand, wag na, baka may bomb-carrying goons din duon.

  10. Murder by numbers is what happened to the 2nd impeachment complaint.

    This one was dead on arrival to quote Edcal Lagman on the 2nd impeachment.

    It’s apt that the ones chosen to deliver the eulogies were Marcoleta San Luis and Monica Puentavella, the representaive from Mike Arroyo’s lower intestine.

    I think there’s more to the bombing than simply an assassination. Those motorcycle riding assassins have been pretty efficient so far and there’s really no reason why someone who wanted Akbar killed would not have availed of their services. Why use a bomb when a bullet will suffice?

  11. The sectors that are all growing in double digits that are pulling up the growth rate is narrow and tax revenues are very little affected by this sectors roboust growth.

    Plus the OFW based consumption is also contracting affecting consumption based tax take.

    Apart from selling off government owned assets where oh where are new tax revenues going to come from?

    Capital gains from the equity and bond markets are limited in nature and are not covered by income taxes. Maybe the government should look at raising the capital gains from equity and bond markets.

    Meanwhile the bulk of the economy is struggling along with an inflationary wave building up with high oil prices and high food prices on the horizon.

    All this in a country whose political establishment are figthing over the spoils of power.

    Watch for a bust coming just in time for the 2010 elections. It might come sooner but 2010 looks like the period when the economic perfect storm could occur.

    Now a bombing in the House of Representatives.

    Who is minding the store is one question that everyone is asking.

    Unfortunately the worlwide headlines will be bombing in the Congress of the Philippines. Lawmaker killed.

    Great PR job for the crazies once again.

  12. sa ibang mga comment dito pinapakita lang na how discriminating they are? kasi muslim ang namatay yun ang mga comment nila. ang mahirap kasi naniniwala tayo sa hakahaka lang? why not show some evidence that this man is really an ally of ASG? or masama siya? siguro kung hindi muslim si akbar magaganda mababasa natin dito? now i understand why our brother muslim want to be separated from the Philippines.

  13. Connect the dots…ZTE-NBN scandal…,Ayala mall bombing…impeachMe….briberies…Batasan bombing…

    where does it lead to?

  14. Manuel: More power to your “fearless journalism”.

    Beware of Enrile ,an ageing bloodhound once again sniffing the scent of the old fox(JDV) , knowing he’s wounded, wanting to be there to assist in the kill.

  15. This is a dastardly act of terror, obviously aimed to achieve three objectives:

    1)Send a strong warning signal to Congress.

    2)Wipe out a known Abu Sayyaf supporter.

    3)Divert public attention away from other scandals.

  16. Equalizer, I’m not sure your reasons are that “obvious”. The crime and the MO can more easily be explained like this:

    1) Akbar made a lot of enemies in the ASG when he left them, and when he started oppressing ASG’s family members as Basilan governor.

    2) a remotely controlled IED is consistent with past ASG terror attacks, and seemed to have been made specifically to get Akbar.

    3) The government has little to gain and a lot to lose by pulling off something like this. Only the ASG has anything to gain from killing Akbar (Akbar is a Liberal party guy, the one that stuck with GMA).

    Occam’s Razor is a very handy tool in cases like these.

  17. Yes. The “beauty” of an IED is that it can be concealed quite easily, as in this case, the gas tank of a motorcycle. The target entrance was conveniently next to the motorcycle parking area, from what I’ve heard. And judging from how perfunctory security checks are in most checkpoints, it’s not hard to believe that an operative could get a motorcycle into the complex in under two or three tries.

  18. Manolo:I have always been fascinated by the interplay of seemingly unrelated connection events until a clear pattern emerges .My fascination with the “Connections” approach to history started when I watched the whole BBC series on “Connections” in the early 80s.

    Philippine Scenario: With this “Connection perspective”, we only have to connect the dots of the recent events to see patterns and eventually see the big picture we have all been longing for…

    * It starts with a brave journalist and his expose on ZTE.
    *”Back off!” drama in Wack Wack.
    *The emergence of a most unlikely and brave whistle blower.
    *The “Sec, may 200 ka dito” attempted bribery during a golf game in Wack Wack.
    *The Senate hearings on ZTE.
    *Neri invoking “executive” privilege as shield.
    *The proposed impeachment of Daddy chair.
    *The resignation of Daddy chair.
    *The cancellation of ZTE deal.
    *Pulido’s impeachment immunization move.
    *The attempted bribery on Cong.Beltran to support/sponsor “Impeach Me”
    *The bribery of Governors/Congressmen in Malacanang.
    *The bravery of Among Ed.
    *The hasty pardon of ERAP.
    *The Ayala “Big Fart”
    *The “Impeach Me” drama in Batasan
    *The Batasan bombing

  19. equalizer, we belong to the same generation. i was also hooked on that show. but if you’re to follow “connections” you have to go further afield and not necessarily the most obvious links -you also have to take into account the law of unintended consequences.

    you would have to start, i don’t know, with the victory of fm in 1965, or somewhere else. go as far afield as iraq, etc., etc.

  20. President Arroyo Blames Politics on the Tragic death of Ms Amper and the assassination of Comelec official Dalaig on Politics and who are “this Politics”? who lead them Politics? The President has the Majority in the House, the Local Government and awash in foreign currency remittances from OFWs, and on open loan from a very friendly neighbour China to help out the millions of Ms Ampers and to put the assassins where they belong, but it seems the problem is getting worse. The extra-judicial disappearance and killings have somehow subsided after the pressures from all sides notably from the U.N. and the Human Rights, but now the rule of the MOBs is taking over and she’s blaming herself (politics) in a way it appears she’s blameless..she had learned the tricks…

  21. manolo:the seed of her destruction as a respected national leader was planted on that fateful day she reneged on her promise to the nation NOT to run in the 2004 elections.

    It has been downhill since then,with the Garci tapes, etc. etc.etc.

    Bad karma.

  22. “Let this day douse all rumor and speculation that this Government is divided. It is strong and focused on the business of the people. We ask our people to join us in our journey to a future of national stability, peace and solidarity.”Toting Bunye(Ops…Office of the Press Secretary)

  23. supremo:“We’ll have the most progressive province in the country,” Wahab Akbar said at one rally. “When the people have dynasty, they have more development.”

    It’s the first time, however, that a man and his multiple wives have become elected officials at both the national and provincial level. Seven other politicians related to Congressman Akbar by bloodline, including a niece, nephew and several cousins, also won election victories in smaller towns around the island.” San Francisco Chronicle

    Who will continue the Akbar dynasty in Basilan?

  24. mlq3, guess i spoke too soon in the preceding thread. i should have waited for you to raise the baton and predictably, as night follows day, your disciples here blare another cacophony of blame-gma villification.

    doronilla is nothing but a prophet of doom with respect to gma. he has been embarrassingly off before in his prognostications and he is wrong now. and neumann? who is neumann in philippine affairs.just where is he coming from?

    you probably find it laughable but this business of poisoning the country’s political and economic environment by indiscriminately disseminating totally unsubstantiated “scandals”, and celebrate the resulting international ‘malperception’. much has been said about filipino’s penchant for shooting themselves on the foot. i think they often do it, the media in particular, for personal political reasons, and let the country be damned. who do you think suffers?

    this is not saying that real, honest-to-goodness misbehavior should be swept under the rug for the sake of international reputation. justice, whether for or against an alleged wrongdoer, is appreciated anywhere in the civilized world. gma’s presidency ends in 2010. why is there a need to constantly inflict a blackeye internationally on the entire nation? pgma is not the philipines!

  25. Bencard

    What’s new? We’ve always been masochists. Panahon pa ni Marcos, Masokista na ang Pilipino. What’s sad is that these guys who always are the bearer of bad news are the first ones to leave the country for so called greener pastures anyway…di ba?

  26. At the end of the day, the latest person to sit in Malacanang will always be the worst President to have ever sat on it…what’s new? Kaya nga pagod na ako sa kakangawa ng ating mga kababayan….as if naman kung sila ang nabibiyayaan ng mga powers that be…di sila tatahimik….

    I have always said before, our country is NOT ready for democracy. Di nga lang katanggap tanggap sa mga sumusulat sa forum na ito yung idea na yan. Ayaw pa rin nila buksan ang kanilang mga mata na ang demokrasya ay maaring lumago lamang kung may kasamang disiplina at responsibilidad ang mamamayan ukol sa kapakanan ng kanilang bansa. Eh wala nga eh…every man for himself ang nasa damdamin ng bawa’t pinoy. Huwag na tayo maging ipokrito tungkol sa bagay na ito. Iilan lang ang may tunay na pagmamahal sa Pilipinas. At di ko sinasabing kasama ako diyan. Aaminin ko din na di lubos ang aking pagmamahal.

  27. If you want to cover your ears from the reality of the world, you’ll do so at the expense of your participation in democracy. But don’t blame the messenger. …

  28. When I was living abroad, I always hear bad news about our country from the foreign publications. Then, when I find out what’s really going on, I realize it’s not as bad as it is made to believe by the media.

    This is exactly the point Bencard and I are trying to make. Mountains are being made out of mole hills.

    For me, kung ganun ang bansa natin na katulad sa mga ipinagkakalat sa diyaryo, eh di dapat talaga umalis na ang mga mamamayan natin sa bansa. Wala na palang kuwentang manirahan diyan.

  29. Covering one’s ears is different from exaggeration mi amigo. What we always hear are things that are blown out of proportion….THAT is the the problem. I am not trying to defend the regime as it really has its problems…pero again, when you hear and BELIEVE what media has to say….like I said, I would rather leave the country na nga….

  30. And you actually BELIEVE that TIANANMEN SQUARE as told by Foreign media is the WHOLE STORY? The you’re really naive…..

  31. I guess what I am really saying is this….go ahead, talk about the problem…but please stop embellishing…seek the truth ( I do agree with you on this) but don’t just rely on what media is saying…they have their own agenda….

  32. He he….well, I wanted an intelligent discussion…but I guess believing without discerning is the norm for the day….:=)

  33. “like I said, I would rather leave the country na nga….Tsinoy”

    Nobody is stopping you from leaving this country and joining the Mainland.Take care!

    Zài jiàn !

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