“Concentrate on what cannot lie. The evidence.”
– Gil Grissom to Warrick Brown, CSI
“It’s a scientist’s right to re-examine his theory with each new piece of evidence, Nick.”
– Gil Grissom, CSI
So what do we non-scientists do? Essentially, pursue the paths scientists would take, anyway. This morning, I gave a talk to high school and college students from the various La Salle schools, and one student asked my opinion on the Glorietta blast. And so, I quoted from CSI.
I told the students that as students, they should try to make sense of what happened, by starting with the realization that there is a lot more we don’t know, than we actually know at this point. the little that we know can be gleaned from three main sources. First, eyewitness accounts. Second, photos and videos showing the damage. Third, what our officials tell us.
At the end of the day, whatever official explanations emerge will have to be convincing to the many eyewitnesses, and match what they’ve related and what the pictures show (an interesting entry, with pictures, is in sane psycho, who’s mother is apparently the architect of Luk Yuen; Hueco Mundo says the owner had a close call indeed). Our job as citizens, I told them, is to be unafraid to insist that any explanation given makes sense. I told them that people will of course have preconceived notions or assumptions about what took place, but a sober and thorough investigation -and explanation- should hopefully end up convincing your average, reasonable, person.
And if it doesn’t, ask, ask, ask, until you’re satisfied it all makes sense. The opinions, even instincts, of people who were there, will matter. As will the views of ordinary citizens who try to make sense of the tragedy by comparing official explanations (or theories) with their own personal experience. See delai’s realm, for example, who, when the LPG explosion theory was first proposed, wrote,
they said it was just a gas tank leak. what the hell? when i saw it on tv, i had to say “wtf?” i’ve witnessed a house burn down because of lpg leakage. but it was nothing like it. there was a loud blast and then the house was eventually engulfed in flames. glorietta however was nothing like it. no fire at all. a blasted area of glorietta facing park square 2 flashed on tv. and when the inside of the mall was shown, there was no doubt that it was bombed.
See Turning Points, who has photos and refuses to believe it was a gas leak, either. See Clumsy Limbs who sadly noted that after Sunday’s brief fire, she has had to cancel future events in the mall.
In the end if they can be convinced, all of us should be convinced by whatever official explanation emerges. The trauma and confusion those who were there are going through (and their loved ones, who have just begun to count their blessings,) will naturally affect their attitudes and behavior.
Blogger Cindy.cIndy.ciNdy.cinDy.cindY who was fairly close to the blast, describes the process many others are going through too, I’m sure:
As soon as I arrived home last Friday, my father uttered the words “Military may pakana niyan. Sila lang ang may C4.” How can my father say that? I was disgusted to hear that the government might be behind the incident. And I was scared at the same time because the government can do that to their constituents. Then the news outlined several bombing instances in Metro Manila and all of them showed that the bomb used were home-made bombs. They believe that the ‘terrorists’ are the one behind the previous bombings. Anyway, we have to wait for the result of the investigation before we make accusations, right? So I watched the news and red the newspapers. It has been 3 days since the incident happened but still they don’t have a concrete idea what kind of explosive was used. Some were saying that it was indeed C4 since some chemical components of C4 can be found in the area. But the police investigators alleged that these components are available in the drug stores, therefore, speculations about the military and government being behind the incident should be disregarded. Ganon na ba kadali gumawa ng bomba?!
And the questions that are emerging in their minds:
And guess what, there are no security guards who died that day. Come to think of it, 2 passengers from a taxi died and the taxi driver was thrown off his own taxi because of the explosion but the guard on duty managed to stay alive. Another thing with the security guards in the mall is that they just stand there and tell the people don’t panic. The hell!!! Why don’t you just show the people where’s the safest way to go so that they won’t panic?! So much for the guards…
She also then tackles, next, the kind of talk going around and where officials could do some good by stepping in to squelch such talk, if it’s unfounded:
Yesterday the father of my brother’s friend, which is a Colonel in the military, warned us to stay away from malls because according to him there are 3 more bombs. They do not know yet where the other bombs are located. And according to him, the bomb used in Glorietta is indeed a C4. He also added that the C4 used in Glorietta was less than 2kgs and the purpose was just to scare the people. Then last night I received a text message from my friend saying, “This came from my brother Henry from the army. Wag kayo pumunta sa Global City Market Market and Makro Bicutan… All Ayala Corps subject for bombings. Ocean liners hindi pumutok kanina. Intel info yan, high alert kami…”
I don’t know whom to believe because the news hasn’t disclosed this information yet or they haven’t received the information. And the military hasn’t given any statement regarding this information. But it seems that the info is quite correct in saying that there are still 3 bombs scattered in Metro Manila. Nevertheless, I wrote this to warn other people to be vigilant.
This is the problem: much as the stories being passed around bothers people (see Oodles of Goodles and love-andy and Willie Galang.COM for examples of those who feel bothered) in the absences of official reassurances to the contrary, passing around information may be the only way the citizenry has to cope with the possible implications of the blast. Put it this way, even if the blast wasn’t due to terrorism, it raises troubling questions, as Mara Finds points out:
[B]ut what is being stored there and why it wasn’t being audited and regulated by Ayala Center is a little bit questionable because, allegedly, there is a big gasoline tank sitting right under the mall and empty fuel cylinders being stored there.
What, they can’t find alternative storage solutions that they have to choose storing explosion hazards in the basement of a very busy mall?! While the investigators have not released a definite cause of the blast, whether it’s an accident or work of terrorist groups, it’s idiotic to give anybody or anything undue access to a large cache of volatile fuel.
There are others firmly convinced any official responsibility is improbable, even unthinkable, see Postcard Headlines.
My column today, Defeatism, is a far cry from the beautiful piece written by Patricia Evangelista in Things fall apart last Sunday:
When the soldiers were beheaded by the Abu Sayyaf, we were disgusted, violated, but we could push past it and say it’s the risk a soldier takes. It is the same for the activists and journalists, the leaders and politicians. They’re only names, mourned now, replaced by someone else’s story tomorrow. But what’s different about the Glorietta blast, in the reactions and confessions and the dozens of entries in blogs all over the Internet, is the uniform mix of fear and relief. There is no forgetting this one. The words that are repeated, in murmurs and whispers down the alleyways of cyberspace are the same. It could have been my brother. It could have been my boyfriend. It could have been my mother. It could have been me.
It could have been the girl and her father who had lunch in Luk Yuen. It could have been the boy who was planning to go to Toby’s to look at sports equipment. It could have been any of the thousands who pour out of the Ayala MRT station and flood the crossing into Glorietta. There’s no longer any sense of safety–it happened in a mall, that safe haven of the 21st century. It is the same mall where young couples hold hands while walking, the same mall so many of us who were raised in Manila have wandered into dozens of times without a thought. And in Glorietta 2, where the bomb struck, there were play areas, and toys, and children’s books, and stores for mommies-to-be. Safe? We don’t know what that means anymore.
But in my own space I had to point out one troubling aspect of the whole tragedy is that it shows no one is capable of rallying the country even in times of disaster, when the normal (and healthy) instinct of a population should be to rally around the flag. I’ve learned that readers only react to columns when they disagree, and so I wasn’t surprised when some readers took exception with my generally praising the police: but it is really too soon, to my mind, to come to any conclusions about how they’ve handled things.
As things stand, last Sunday’s Inquirer editorial asked readers to brace themselves, and pointed out something blogger Pwede Na, who has a must-read blog entry which begins with a meditation on our mall culture,
There is a direct relationship between the noise levels in a mall, the frigidity of the aircon, and the income levels of the shoppers — the poorer the clientele, the colder and louder the mall. Poor folk come to a mall to cool down, and to be entertained. They want their money’s worth!
SM North Mall leaves one half deaf after an hour, and you had better bring a sweater if you’re planning to take in a movie. The Rockwell Mall, which you can’t even get to on public transportation, goes for the very upscale shopper and is nearly silent. So, if you want powerful aircon, well, you can get that at home.
A few weeks after the new TRINOMA mall opened I realized it was not going for the same demographic as the Ayala’s Glorietta Mall in the City of Makati’s financial district. TRINOMA now leaves me almost as hearing impaired as SM North. Adjacent to a new cross-country bus terminal, TRINOMA advertises itself as a “regional mall” capturing shoppers from the provinces a few hours north of Metro Manila. You can see the probinsyanos wandering the mall, wide eyed, and hanging on to each other. ATM machines every 50 meters insure that they won’t come up short on cash before they head back to the bus terminal and the return trip to Bulacan, Tarlac, or Pampanga.
And why the public has reacted the way it has:
What is interesting is how quickly we absorb the shock, those of us who did not lose a loved one and who were not injured. On Sunday, two days after the event, we were in the SM North Mall to get some gardening supplies. The mall had about half the number of people one might normally expect for a Sunday. Barring any new bombings, I suspect the crowd will be back to normal by next Sunday.
The October 21, 2007 editorial in the Philippine Daily Inquirer notes the sadness of our country, the fact that there are so many suspects in this bombing. The real tragedy, however, is that for a great many Filipinos and other residents, including this one, Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and her government are among the suspects. This is not the assessment of wild-eyed conspiracy theorists, but of average work-a-day people.
Similar thoughts were echoed in today’s Inquirer editorial, too.
A day prior to this story, Investigators not discounting accident in Glorietta blast, word was already going around that the police were rethinking the accident angle. As well they should, since all possibilities have to be looked into. But a hypersensitive public will tend to pore over every official comment to see what it may mean when police officials say US experts unable to detect C-4 component from blast site, when perhaps all the cops are doing is trying to be more nuanced:
However, Razon said the test results could have varied because Philippine and American authorities swabbed different areas.
“The [US] tests are negative because when the US experts arrived at the blast site, they swabbed the exterior portions or the portions that were not directly at the center, or at the seat, of the explosion. That’s why it tested negative,” Razon said in Filipino.
Razon added that, “But when the PNP Crime Laboratory personnel conducted their swabs, it was in the general vicinity of the seat of the explosion.”
“That is the explanation why the swabbing of US experts showed negative results for RDX,” he said.
As it is, even as the latest is, PNP: Accident in Glorietta becoming more and more likely: No bomb components found, they better be doing their homework and dotting every i and crossing every t (and here’s how things can get misconstrued: some would ask, why doesn’t the FBI say something, then; others will say, that’s protocol, they’re guests so only Philippine officials will talk; how to resolve it? Officials should say if protocol’s at work or what to expect by way of an official statement from foreign observers).
Inner Sanctum explores the accident theory, which he says “geek friends” proposed even when official statements started focusing on that possibility:
Over the weekend, several geek friends of mine have put forward deflagration as the probable cause of the Glorietta blast, especially after The Inquirer published a composite image of the blast site inside the Glorietta 2 lobby.
According to them, deflagration is just like a gigantic fart, wherein tremendous gas pressure is released similar to a gas-powered canon–meaning, in one direction–as opposed to the ripple effect of a bomb.
Philippine Commentary who seemed morally convinced the blast was terrorist-related, goes to greater lengths and points to GexCon, a gas explosion consultancy, whose handbook does make interesting reading. but not everyone is quick to embrace this possibility.
However, Chemical experts doubt new blast theory:
Ernesto dela Cruz and Wilfredo Jose, both professors in chemical engineering, faculty members and students said it was unlikely that a leak from the tank containing thousands of liters of diesel at the mall’s basement caused the blast.
The engineers said diesel is not a volatile substance and will not explode as a liquid at any rate. They said it has to be in a gaseous state and has to vaporize before it can explode.
They said that for diesel to vaporize, it has to be heated to up to more than 200 degrees Celsius inside a diesel engine.
Dela Cruz, Jose and the others also said that it would also be impossible that methane gas that allegedly leaked from the mall’s septic tank caused the blast.
The experts, however, said that methane explodes only if ignited. They said a mixture of five to 15 percent methane and 85 percent oxygen may explode when lit.
They added that the mixture should contain a substantial amount of chemical components to reach a blast magnitude similar to the one at the mall on Friday afternoon.
The professors said they doubt that there was enough methane inside the Glorietta 2 sewer to fuel the explosion that reached up to the building’s roof three stories from the basement.
They also said that the rate of reaction would have to be quick to attain an explosion with impact. There should also have been a bad odor, much like that of rotten eggs, if the cause of the blast was indeed methane gas.
More convincing is Tongue In, Anew:
If the diesel tank, which by the way is almost always filled especially in applications such as malls and other establishments frequented by many people, did cause the huge explosion, it should have been blown beyond recognition. Generators used for critical applications such as Glorietta’s are typically run with and without load weekly both automatically then manually for about fifteen minutes just to make sure the Genset (engine + alternator/dynamo w/ Auto-start/Auto-shutdown circuits) and the electrical controls (Automatic Transfer Switch, Paralleling Switchgear, etc.) will work in the event a real power interruption (brownout) does occur. It also ensures that the batteries are recharged regularly. Without batteries, generators are worthless. This regular process, called Plant Exercise, makes it imperative that the fuel tank/s are always filled to its upper limits. Meaning very little space for compression and combustion in the tank’s upper chamber.
What did the pictures show? A fuel tank standing perfectly by itself, except for a small hole and with a portion of the top cover appearing to me as intentionally pried open. The tank did not appear to have “bloated” or puffed out as it should be if it had exploded from inside. The small hole? It looks to me like it was there all the time. Maybe a vent punched out by maintenance for pressure release. This is necessary especially if the fuel delivery pipes to the engine operate by gravity (think pressurized water tanks vs. gravity tanks).
Or it could have been used as inspection hole to check fuel level either visually or by using a dipstick. Some tanks usually have level indicators using a transparent plastic tubing stretched vertically outside with both ends connected to metal tubes welded at the top and bottom of the tank’s side. The level outside is the same inside since liquids seek their own level. But since this type of indication is neither rigid nor durable, at some time maintenance people disable this and use the more reliable dipstick method.
Again, the metal plate that this hole was created in did not look dented in nor puffed out that would have indicated any explosion either coming directly from the top or from the inside, respectively.
I now also remember talking to military officers from the Electronics group called AFPCES some years back who wanted me to design and build diesel tanks thick enough to repel bullets. I was told the NPAs use AFPCES’ tanks for target practice (including soldiers climbing their antenna masts) but when I asked how many have died in the explosions, I was told the bullets just punctured the tanks and at worst, it would deprive them of a week’s supply of diesel but no explosions. Either I was watching too many cowboy movies at the time or totally ignorant to have asked that.
Who also explores the sewage tank angle:
From what little I know about sewage treatment plants (I designed and installed electrical controls including semi-automation modules for, what do you know? A high-rise 5-star Hotel and a mall complex!), the Laguna Lake Development Authority (LLDA)- if your establishment spills a huge volume of effluent towards the Laguna Lake or any of its tributary rivers, or the DENR – if your sewers lead to floodways or esteros flowing to any of the seas in Luzon, sewage treatment plants (STPs) ARE required by either gov’t offices before Environmental and Sanitation Permits are issued, thus construction permits are withheld in their absence. A mall the size of Glorietta, or the whole Makati Commercial Complex or Ayala Center as it is now called, IS required to operate a Sewage Treatment Plant.
Two possibilities, therefore. Either Glorietta has its own or it pumps its sewage into a central STP operated by Ayala Center. If not, then either LLDA or DENR did not do its job here. Or were bribed. In the late nineties, 2 or 3 malls/condos in the Ortigas-Shaw corridor were issued Cease and Desist Orders by LLDA because they were found pumping sewage straight to the city lines. They were heavily fined and closed temporarily until they constructed their own STPs. At least, that’s what the papers said.
What does an STP do?
To simplify, it first screens solids out of the influent waste from the mall, breaks down into “digestible” size large sediments like a giant blender with many agitator blades at the bottom of the tank; then pumps all of it into an aeration tank where air produced by big fan blowers is pumped from under the sludge, making aerobic bacteria digest organic waste. The next tanks would separate liquid from the remaining sludge. Liquid undergoes chlorination before the effluent is released to the city sewers while the remaining sludge repeats the process. This is where methane gas is produced. In large quantities, it may be dangerous as 14% methane mixed with oxygen explodes when ignited. Some large STPs use the gas to heat and dissolve the sludge but in this size (Glorietta’s) there is not enough methane produced to install a collector-burner stage. Abroad, it is common in city-size STPs but of the 3 private-owned medium-sized STPs I’ve worked on in the past, I have not seen one with a methane collector-burner stage, much less one that exploded.
It would be stupid likewise that Glorietta, or Ayala for that matter, would maintain a large septic vault holding raw sewage under one of its public buildings. They employ the finest architectural firms in the world to design their projects, any firm of that caliber would definitely not skip the basic requirements in their designs. So will sanitation and safety engineers, too. Even our houses’ pozo negros have vent pipes with which to “breathe” out the gas. Further, Methane does not stay stable for long. It breaks down into Hydrogen Sulfide which is a very toxic gas. We haven’t heard anyone die of gas poisoning in Glorietta prior to the incident, have we? Instead, what many witnesses and victims smelled was a gunpowder-like odor. Or in one victim’s words, “amoy-paputok”, which is characteristic of a C4 blast. A explosion caused by methane could be preceded or followed by flames and we haven’t heard of any such thing in Glorietta. Let’s take a look at the simplified chemical equation of burning methane in ordinary air:
CH4 + 2(O2 + 3.76N2) = 2H2O + CO2 + 2(3.76N2 + energy
where energy may be all or combination of Sound/Heat/Light/Shockwave
It is standard that explosion relief vents are constructed in STPs, more so one under a Generator room. The Generator Room itself, depending on the size and quantity of gensets, may have several exhaust fans to evacuate the hot air around the engines, the cooling system’s radiators (or water pipes to the external cooling towers for large installations), and the exhaust mufflers. I will not accept any excuse that the generator room is a totally contained/enclosed one, meaning a sealed vault where the operators can die from fumes inhalation either from the fuel or the engine exhaust. It is therefore safe to conclude that the generator room was well ventilated. Blast waves and shock waves cannot be produced like that as in Glorietta (blasting through the flooring up to the 4th floor) if it was not a sealed container.
Now, a room that has many vents and openings, doors, windows, vents, etc. should have allowed the smell at least of the foul-odored sewage, or methane gas, or hydrogen sulfide (when methane breaks down) and it would have been detected earlier by Ayala personnel or reported by shoppers. Any reports? Nothing I’m sure.
That being the case, and all the foregoing arguments here from my raw experience and stock knowledge, all debunks either the methane or diesel theory or the combination of both.
And from the layman’s point of view, Uniffors points out, however,
Remember a few years ago, there was a methane gas explosion from an underground sewage pipe in the street fronting the DFA office in Roxas Blvd. The blast was so powerful it tore up the pavement and sent a car a few feet airborne, but there was [no] fire.
Journal of the Jester-in-Exile tries to tie all the information together (read the whole thing):
Back to wrapping up a few things. In the next episode of CSI: Makati, I’ll be talking about my hypothesis on the why, as a follow-up to the how, the Glorietta blast occurred. Let’s face it — it takes a lot to ignite diesel and methane vapor, even in a confined environment, and the confined environment itself has factors that militate against the ignition of the flammable vapor (e.g., the velocity of the aircon exhaust roiling and disturbing the air inside the confined environment, the absence of any pressurization in the diesel tank or septic tank that would cause flammable vapor to accumulate much too rapidly for the vapor to be dispersed into outside air). Thus, it seems to me that it’s fairly unlikely that this was a simple case of an industrial accident.
Okay, it MAY BE an industrial accident, but it was probably STAGED.
American blogger Left Flank says American troops here on exercises might be playing it too cool (while prudently keeping safe) but also says,
The most ridiculous commentary on Filipino politics, though might be this: “An alternative theory in the investigation into the Makati bombing is that it was accidentally set off by incendiary material inside the building.”
Make that clumsy employee president!
One news item shows how intense emotions have gotten: Kin of Glorietta victims ask Arroyo for justice, not cash. And Twilight Zone news stories just adds to the unease: Calls to Rajah Solaiman diverted to Rep. Biazon’s cell phone.
In the end, I have to say ahnnabanana makes a good point:
A lot of friends overseas are writing about how glad they are that they left because they heard about the recent Glorietta bombing. How the Filipinos have grown apathetic and indifferent to such tragedies. That they’re so safe in America blah blah blah. I don’t think we’re apathetic. We feel bad about it, yes. But realistically, what is there to do about it? Protest with signs that say “STOP THE BOMBINGS”? Stay in our houses and not go to malls forever? Cry to show that we’re affected? Hold prayer rallies? Of course people will still go to work. Of course life will go on. When it happened I was doing a show in Greenbelt, the mall right beside Glorietta. Yesterday I had one, today I had two shows. Something like this can happen anywhere. A bomb can be assembled inside a mall with materials bought inside a mall. And where did the Columbine and Virginia tech shooting happen again? America, right? I’m not trying to go on this self-righteous, nationalistic high horse. My point is NO PLACE IS SAFE, not even first-world countries. It pisses me off when people are proud to be Filipino when something good happens like Pacquiao winning some boxing match then disown the country when something bad happens.
Technorati Tags: Blogging, media, philippines
I agree wholehearted with ahnnabanana’s assestment of the Pinoy’s penchant for sharing the triumph and deserting the tragic….
what else is new mlq3? some gloria-haters blame her automatically for eartquakes, floods, monsoons, landslides, opec’s oil prices, and yeah, disturbances of their own making. why not a lethal explosion?
btw, a “giant fart”? it would have been hilarious if it wasn’t deadly.
bencard, agreed, all angles have to be considered.
but what you also have to consider, and this has surprised me, is that skepticism of the government extends not just to those opposed to the president, but even to people either politically neutral, unengaged, or supportive of the president.
and again, the point isn’t whether it’s a fair suspicion or not, it’s that the government must take note of the fact and act accordingly.
Justice for the victims..
Walang Akong Pakialam(
Noong kinuha nila ang mga Komunista
Wala akong pakialam,di’ naman ako Komunista, eh
Noong kinuha nila ang mga student activists
Wala din akong pakialam,di’ naman student activist ang anak ko,eh
Noong kinuha nila si Jonas Burgos
Wala rin akong pakialam,di ko naman kamaganak si Jonas!
Noong binomba nila ang Ayala Mall,
Wala rin akong pakialam,wala sa pamilya ko ang nasugatan naman,eh
Isang araw,noong kinuha nila ako
Wala akong masabe,kasi Ako rin ay may sala!
Dahil hindi ako nakialam at di ako nasabi
“Lahat at may karapatan na maging Malaya!â€Â
khit san natin tingnan na anggulo politika parin ang punot dulo..
http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/storypage.aspx?StoryID=96697
Experts doubt new blast theory!
New Blast theory in Ayala Mall doubted!
“The UP professors said they doubt that there was enough methane inside the Glorietta 2 sewer to fuel the explosion that reached up to the building’s roof three stories from the basement.
They also said that the rate of reaction would have to be quick to attain an explosion with impact. There should also have been a bad odor, much like that of rotten eggs, if the cause of the blast was indeed methane gas.ABS-CBN News”
And so life goes on as usual, i guess? I think it’s high time that people stopped saying “life goes on” and start thinking in terms of “enough is enough.” that the some in the populace would even suspect its own democratic government would turn cannibal and start devouring its own people is a tragic state of affairs and yet this doesn’t seem to be shocking anyone. This is not about kicking the country when it’s down, it’s about wondering if there’s any indignation left in people to do anything about anything.
can anyone imagine a fart without odor? most everyone who does it denies it, some ahead of time (lol).
mlq3,
I suggest the media dig up what Ayala Mall’s Insurance appointed-investigators find out. The cause of the blast has implications on liability….
Their insurer, (presumably AIG) will hire the best independent investigators Ayala’s premium can buy to avoid a big insurance dole-out. They will not merely rely on the official results.
Besides, who trusts a pot-bellied chief of police?? If he can’t be responsible enough to be in shape given that he is in law enforcement…….
Bencard, you fart might have caused the explosion (lol).
It’s like waiting for another issue to happen before this problem is resolved. Issues/scandals are being piled up, unresolved, and forgotten? Too bad!
mlq3, somebody is using my handle in vain. can you do something about it? i’m not gonna take legal action or anything. i just want it stopped. it makes a mockery of your respectable blog.
tsokolet, you must be eating a lot of chocolate so you are producing a lot of methane. try industrial-strength antacid. btw, you can sell that oversupply of gas, you know? (lovl).
mlq3, the 12:14 am & 12:42 posts are not mine. how could this impostor do it? i know a certain dirk pitt plagiarizes some of my comments but this one is different. could it be he/she somehow got my e-mail address and using it without my consent?
bencard, noted, deleted them. that person is only using your handle, not your email addie.
whoever is using bencard’s handle, do it again and your ip will be entered into the anti spam minseweeper’s data.
to the real bencard,
your email address is probably safe. they are just using your handle which is ‘bencard’.
thanks very much, mlq3, supremo. that was quick. i’m impressed!
My own thoughts Mlq3 re “But in my own space I had to point out one troubling aspect of the whole tragedy is that it shows no one is capable of rallying the country even in times of disaster, when the normal (and healthy) instinct of a population should be to rally around the flag.”
In my book, the reason why the citizens are not rallying in the aftermath of the Makati blast to the flag or around Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s little person is not because they despise the suspected terrorist cells less but it’s because Gloria, as a leader has lost all moral high ground to ask them to despise these despicable terrorists because it is she, a distrusted leader who is making that call.
In any case, I believe that Gloria herself has lost all sense of leadership when instead of rallying the citizens around her after the tragedy and promising before anything else to promise to bring the culprit to justice (since they had already pre-empted findings then, bombing or whatever) with all her might, etc., she chose to make curt and menacing pronouncements directed against those who oppose her instead of reassuring the population. For a person who is known for her political savvy, seemed she panicked at that moment.
Does she already know that she cannot rally the nation to the flag or around her? Instinctively, she must feel that she no longer enjoys the trust and confidence of her fellow citizens.
There is really nothing more that Arroyo can expect at this point from the people. Even those who have always been sympathetic to her from the start are losing patience. It is she who has to prove that she is a leader…
She may have a following of die-hard elements from among her trusted hands but there is no denying that she has so divided the country to such an extent that the existing political and moral chasm has almost completely destroyed the faith of the nation in its government. It is a terrible chasm primarily of Gloria’s own making.
“The police, it seems to me, have handled the situation credibly, calmly, in a professional manner. So did the various emergency services.
This is a time for asking questions. Not for making accusations, but for pursuing questions. Relentlessly, and perhaps, to some of us, remorselessly.†mlq3
nice piece manolo re “defeatism†specially above. i see you’re not easily influenced with what the experts have to say in your own space. i wonder what they have to say about that specially the followers of our honorable senator trillanes.
“Their insurer, (presumably AIG) will hire the best independent investigators Ayala’s premium can buy to avoid a big insurance dole-out. They will not merely rely on the official results.”
This is the best anti-dote to any foot dragging or whitewash from government especially now that the PNP is considering it an ‘accident’. Ayala will lose a lot of money if it is only an accident. Ayala identified P100 million in damages. Add the claims from the 100 people injured of at least P1 million (my number) + a higher amount for those who died. The whole thing will probably cost Ayala P200 million to P300 million. There might be some claims from shoppers for mental anguish. The whole thing might reach P1 billion easy.
“How the Filipinos have grown apathetic and indifferent to such tragedies.
I don’t think we’re apathetic. We feel bad about it, yes. But realistically, what is there to do about it?†ahnnabanana
well, i think one patriotic thing we can do is through blogging rather than promoting apathy as what the “let’s move on†folks have been doing. you know, it’s a courageous act and you’re actually helping the country specially if you’re a gloria basher.
Have the police officially declared the blast was caused by an accident?
u dnt have to worry bencard (the real one) ur voice and tone of writing is noticeable (at least to me). that impostor is easily identifiable as not you.
i dnt remember any of the past bombings to have rallied us to the flag…
it’ll take something massive to shock this country into a real outrage. like a well-loved personality being assassinated (was Ninoy well-loved?) or a tragedy the scale of 9/11.
“Their insurer, (presumably AIG) will hire the best independent investigators Ayala’s premium can buy to avoid a big insurance dole-out. They will not merely rely on the official results.â€Â
yeah, better, faster and more credible than the fbi or the australian federal police.
gov’t makes us look stupid. we hate it when they make us look stupid. still, we stupidly let them.
it’s a stupid cycle.
thanks for the comment.
mbw,
Not yet but they’re testing the waters. Lusot na kung hindi papalag ang Ayala.
…all angles have to be considered…
Message passed around through SMS:
Black propaganda. Does this list from Forbes (which was published last Friday) have something to do with the incident and the message above?
—–
The Philippines’ 40 richest here.
supremo, thanks for the info.
Tomorrow is another day! Have a good night and good sleep folks.
Is it typical for investigations of this type to take so long? I mean just to determine what type of bomb/blast it was. Too many theories still, and its already 4 days…
Baka abutin na tayo ng undas.
I agree with the statement except that it should not be all about gloria bashing. Nationalism does not equate to bashing Gloria. For me, the real issue of apathy is a phenomena that has been happening long before GMA along and even after she will be gone from the political scene. Apathy is a Filipino problem. All of us (in the collective) do not love our country enough except maybe for a chosen few and the old heroes.
Why do I say that? Just consider this simple act of throwing candy wrappers anywhere.If we love our country, we won,t be throwing candy wrappers on the street. Yes, one may argue that the goverment does not provide enough grabage cans. So what? DOes that mean it gives you the right to throw candy wrappers anywhere? What’s so hard about putting it in one’s pocket?
In the end, apathy is a national problem. I do agree though that the actions of people in the government has aggravated this problem lately.
“well, i think one patriotic thing we can do is through blogging rather than promoting apathy as what the “let’s move on†folks have been doing. you know, it’s a courageous act and you’re actually helping the country specially if you’re a gloria basher.”
The legacy of gloria is a hopelessly divided country.
Them thar UP Political Engineering Professors should start the Light-a-Fart Movement.
Don’t they have Google in the People’s Republic of Diliman?
One should let the investigation run its course. All these conjectures and innuendos does not do the blogging community any good. Of course, as mlq3 says, quoting Gil Grissom, “just follow the evidence”. Let them do their jobs and let we, the people, judge the results and see if we abide by them.
Our penchant for becoming experts when we’re not can fan the flames of hatred and violence. I like the threads in the previous blog when people were discussing the technical aspects of bomb making and the different ingredients found in said devices and how it relates to the current investigation. Now THAT’s an intelligent discussion. Instead of just making accusations left and right.
The country has been divided long before Gloria came along. She just aggravated it. From the time of Marcos, the country has already been divided…if you study your history enough, it has always been divided between those who are for Marcos and those who are against Marcos. You can see the lineage from there….just look at all the political personalities in place…
Do we have a unifier among the presidential hopefuls?
Manolo,
Great post today. You have outdone yourself. This must be the most comprehensive look at the current tragedy.
yeah on Patricia Evangelista. People have been saying she sucked when she began writing her column but I saw something in her and I was right. As a writer she’s got her voice, unlike most writers in this country.
I was curious why the US investigators were so unlike their counterparts on TV. Just swabbed the edges, huh?
Can’t be the stored fuels because there was no fire. The floors are cement as well, so even pressurized gases won’t be able to blow up to the first floor. The experts are just like us in this case, concentrating on one angle. This is because they have to imagine a “most likely” scenario before doing investigative work.
About rallying to the flag. Manolo, are we being invaded?
“About rallying to the flag. Manolo, are we being invaded?brian b”
By invaders of our own kind who are ransacking the national coffers…
bencard:
it was kind of weird when you started “not sounding like you”, don’t worry, a lot of us can tell by now. 🙂
willy:
it also doesn’t help when the media seems to have latched on to the theories. that makes the the truth pale in comparison to all of the wild stories that have been going around.
Proud to be Tsinoy – what are mostly labelled as Gloria-haters are not really hater of her, personally, but hate what she is doing to the country which is still recovering from all the “bashings” from previous administrations.
The oppositions and the other parties of interest will always try to undermine her, to take their own turn at the till, so to say, but the vast majority of the masses, who have no interest to be in power, just started to dislike her administration and the people around her for all the scandals after scandals, allegations of abuse of power and corruptions that never see resolutions, but instead more allegations of cover ups, outright denials, and spins, that leave the masses wondering if those really were happening and what could have been done if they are brought to proper closures..That how we should correct our defects, bring them into surface and deal with them… and these are not happening. goodnight all, have to go to work and make a living…
Question: Why is the bomb that blasted Glorietta 2 came from the government?
Answer:
A. Because the government needs a diversion from its current dilemma of massive bribery.
B. Because a terrorist would never attack a high class mall at 1:30 on a friday afternoon while there exist on that same day a 50-70% midnight sale on SM & Robinsons who both belong to the middle and lower classes ergo more people = more victims.
c. Because the government angrily warned the opposition as the ones who would take advantage of the tragedy & use it against the government, even when the investigation hasn’t finished yet.
D. ALL OF THE ABOVE
+*+*+*+*+*+*+
Look If I were a terrorist I’d bomb SM North Edsa first or better yet wait for the feast of the Nazarene in Quiapo where there really are lots of people.
It took more than 48 hours for the investigation by the police and the military and yet there is no official report from them.
After admitting that the bomb used was a c4 explosive supplied for the military the investigators eventually took it back and said that perhaps it was an accident.
The next day after the bombing a group named rajah solaiman group trying to look like a muslim extremist terrorist admitted the bombing and asked for the release of their comrades. Take note this came after the bombing, I’ve seen enough national geographic where the terrorist demands first before bombing something if not bombing establishments associated or is a symbol of the ones they are against.
SO PLEASE DON’T FOOL US!
The Government of Ms. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo has to end and she has to step down. No amount of bombing could stop the massive bribery or corruption or ZTE deals shall silence the already grief stricken nation even before hundreds are to be injured by the bombing, and a few being killed.
And for those who support this government and would want to stomach its atrocities please wake up. You see its not just us who are against the government who are going to suffer GMA’s stay in power in the end your sons and daughters will suffer them too.
Its about time you take away that doubt which clouds your minds such questions as “Who would replace her? Will the government stay the same after her resignation or ousting?”
You see people power didn’t end in the 80’s nor the ousting of Erap. It ends when people don’t discriminate between whats’ right and whats wrong and play the fool by dragging the argument longer with questions like the ones mentioned above.
I agree, your questions hold water and the concept of “Stability” is a very powerful ideology for complacence. But look at how many innocent people have been killed? right now they are not activists or radicals. They are not whistle-blowers or people belonging to another party. They are the same people as you and me. They might be asking the same questions…
If this drags on longer I can’t imagine the country even moving on to 2030…
Look you have stability but as to whose expense? At the expense of those who would want to have a better life? A better country? A better education? A better life?
Again GMA must go down… Or help us God!
agree on this one. ang nangyayari sa pinas is marcos’ legacy. at bago ako putaktihin ng mga marcos loyalists, hindi abswelto dito si gloria. she’s perpituating marcos’ legacy by her actions or inactions.
it is not the billions of dollars he looted, but marcos’ biggest sin was destroying the foundation of democracy. there’s no more two-party system. what the country has now is a free-for-all as in labo-labo, matira ang matibay. he politicized the military which enabled him to stay in power for so long. kung hawak ni esperon ang majority ng mga officers, kayang-kaya nilang mag declare ng martial law.
apathy? ano sa tingin ninyo bakit nakatagal si marcos?
Floyd:Words of wisdom!
agree on this one too. sorry GMA supporters but the incompetence is showing. again, i will use the marcos loyalist and erap loyalists’ reasoning – “hindi naman si gloria ang korap, ang korap ay ang mga taong nakapaligid sa kanya”. so gloria, show us leadership.
floyd, do you know what should be done?
Porke ba taga UP eh, expert na? hehe..
I dont consider them bomb/blast experts. Kung may experience sila na nag analyse ng previous blasts/bombings which the news didn’t mention. I may agree with their findings. Another question, do they have all the info/data in hand to give an educated initial finding?
My thoughts are with those affected by these unfortunate event.
I guess apathy is really a consequence of the people being tired from the endless rounds of politicians promising them Utopia and leaving behind Hades.
We have replaced Marcos, Some have tried to replace Cory, We have replaced Erap and We are now trying to replace Gloria. Think about this…it’s been 20 years and in those 20 years, only one is a duly elected President, Ramos (and some even doubt that!). Don’t you see, we love replacing our leaders because we see in them scandal after scandal, the last one always bigger than the previous ones. We act as if we’re surprised that these people could go to such heights of impropriety.
Somebody asked: Who amongst the next set of Presidential hopefuls can we rally around? I really doubt if there is one. We ARE a country divided, divided between the have and the have nots. Each group will NEVER accept the other group’s favored hopeful. The elites (e.g. GMA until she lost it) will always want their status quo and the hoi polloi will always look for their “so called” savior (eg Erap). Even FPJ was a divisive figure. The perfumed set will never accept him as he is not one of them.
Nobody ever wanted a strongman after the Marcos experience. But look at the kind of people we are. We are a people who profess to love democracy but do not want to practice the responsibilities that comes with it. And I don’t mean the responsibility of defending it to utter death but the responsibility of being a good citizen. All the stuff we all learned when we were young and in grade school. We love the idea of “making palusot”. We love the good life without working hard for it (except the OFWs, of course), we love the manana habit. We love to gossip instead of being productive. We love to gamble. We admire the Filipino machismo of having more than one wife..etc etc. We even admire our graft ridden politicians for as long as we’re part of the take. Let’s not be hypocrites. We see that in a lot of our people.
One can always say, apathy is a result of government not being there when you need them. But really, government is a reflection of society and its people, di ba? We voted them in, remember. (yes GMA bashers, I know we didn’t but GMA isn’t the only one who runs the country, you know?) Tayo rin naman ang nagpabaya.
At the end of the day, isn’t it really all about a famous phrase of Pres. John F. Kennedy in his inaugural address:
“Ask not what your country can do for you. Ask what you can do for your country.”
Ang tanong, tayo bang mga pinoy, kaya ba natin gawin iyan…from the top…down to the poorest of the poor?
So it begs the question: Are we really ready for democracy? at least in the present form that we have??
I suppose the Glorietta facility is compliant to the usual standards of safety (OHS, ISO14001, EMS..). It would be a shame to Ayala if this turns out to be an accident due to serious deviations/ non-conformance. Fuel tanks are supposed to be regularly inspected, with proper ventilation and extra safety/ security safeguards. Also, areas containing chemicals/ fuels are highly restricted and regulated.
I am convinced Ayala will do an honest to goodness investigation of its own no matter what.
in the midst of national mourning for those who perished in the glorietta mall bomb attack,now comes erap opting to “withdraw” his mr so he can apply for “full, unconditional pardon” from the president without admitting guilt. what is the country coming to? the guy has the gall to point out that he is not the one requesting the pardon but his
lawyers, ergo, he is not admitting guilt.
this convict continues to make a mockery of real justice. he has gotten away with bending all the rules to be accorded privileges not given to ordinary mortals who committed ordinary crimes. “serving” time in his private resort, he is allowed almost regular furlough for alleged personal reasons, his 102 year-old mother being one of them.
pardon for this man will be the single biggest blunder pgma could ever make in all her life in politics. it will not only undermine the fight against corruption and other high crimes committed by public servants, it will also reinforce persistent belief in a double standard of justice in philippine society.
pandering to what is perceived to be estrada’s still potent political clout is like surrendering to political blackmail. it is an act of cowardice. pgma should be mindful of history. his great father was much-criticized for allowing the deportation of harry stonehill before the government had a chance to convict him of massive corruption. she should avoid the same harsh judgment of history.
proud to be tsinoy,
sama ako ng lima sa mga nasabi mo. ‘HindiNaPinoy’ ang handle ko dati. pero masyadong confrontational ang dating. don’t get me wrong. pilipino pa rin ako. kung mayroong ‘born again’ sa riligion, sana magkaroon ng ‘born again’ pilipino.