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Oct 09

Bribery boomerang

As the news tells us, Peso climbs to 7-year high and Historic high for RP stock index. To put things in perspective, read John Mangun who says it’s really a case of the US Dollar being weak: but that the Peso will settle down perhaps sooner than we think:

As mentioned before, the Philippine peso is not strong against the dollar; the dollar is weak against the peso, as it has been against most all currencies. The weakness of the US dollar actually began in 2003. At that time, the euro was priced at $1. Now it takes $1.41 to buy one euro. I think we will soon see a reversal of that trend.

When you compare the peso with other currencies besides the dollar, the appreciation picture changes. The historical price action of the peso to the Japanese yen, euro, Singapore dollar and British pound actually shows a different trend against the US dollar.

A technical analysis of these currencies says that the peso may be reaching the top and is due for some depreciation. The same chart pattern holds true for the Saudi riyal, the Bahrain dinar and the Malaysian ringgit.

As much as I dislike making predictions beyond the short term, P42 to a $1 seems likely, but I have a hard time seeing P40 to a $1 in the charts. I simply do not think that the depreciating dollar is going to continue over the longer term.

And all the panic about an appreciating peso seems very overdone.

For the OFW families, I doubt seriously if they “hoard” dollars, waiting for the best possible rate. The probability is that when the overseas worker accumulates his remittance, he sends it to the family and they convert it to pesos because they need the money. For them, it is unfortunate that the peso is not 56 to $1.

However, since none of us mere mortals have any control of exchange rates any more than we do over the weather, we must adjust and live with it.

So on to politics.Impeach or immunize? Solons debate. After all, even Santiago sees Malacañang ploy in impeachment case and it’s so obvious it has to be asked, Lozano then, Pulido now? (and how’s this for the return of the living dead? JDV lawyer eyes Pulido disbarment even as Lawyer behind impeach raps vs Arroyo hits back at critics)

One reason for the Hamlet-like behavior of congressmen is Bribery raps vs Palace mar impeach-Arroyo bid. There was more just today, at around lunchtime: Beltran: KAMPI exec offered P2M to back Arroyo impeachment. Beltran pointed out that he’d been approached five times by Palace emissaries when he was under detention, to shut up in exchange for money. He said that Francis Ver, Deputy Secretary-General of Kampi (and former chief of staff of Mark Jimenez), offered him a bribe not once, but twice, to endorse the Polido complaint: 1 million pesos in the morning, and as the deadline for filing approached, the ante was raised to 2 million pesos. The others who were approached directly or indirectly were Reps. Rufus Rodriguez, Chipeco, Hontiveros-Baraquel, Hatama (see 2 more solons confirm bribe offer after Beltran exposé): the idea being, I suppose, that if any of them endorsed the complaint it would confer legitimacy on it.

The Palace’s allies, on the other hand, immediately sacrificed Ver: Kampi has nothing to do with bribe offer–Puno and then hit back: House panel blasted for sitting on JdV complaint. And from left field, a counter-blast: SC asked to rouse Ombudsman from ‘stupor’ on fertilizer scam.

Meanwhile, Arroyo says political noise won’t affect her (and yet, emergency meetings are taking place: Arroyo meets House lawmakers in Palace:

The luncheon meeting was not in the President’s original schedule released to members of the Malacañang Press Corps earlier in the day.

The lunch with the congressmen moved the National Economic Development Authority meeting to 2 p.m. from 11:30 a.m.

At 10 a.m., the President presided over a meeting of the National Security Council, where they discussed, among others, the upcoming barangay (village) election and the peace and security summit.

And life goes on: Palace acts to save CyberEd project. To cover all bases, Senate stress likely hazardous to Mike’s health, says his lawyers.

And who is sitting pretty? Imelda Marcos still quite a lady at 78.

Billy Esposo explains why he thinks criticism of Allan Peter Cayetano’s unfounded. In one of those Wack-Wack style coincidences, Alex Magno explains why Esposo’s reasoning is all wrong -because it plays straight into the hands of the Palace strategists (as Magno’s obviously pursuing the Palace line). My point is, when Billy and Alex start thinking alike, something’s out of whack with the cosmos.

The consequences of Senate adjourns 4 days ahead of Oct. 12 schedule are clear. The doors are being slammed shut by the Palace with no one being around to try to prevent it: NEDA rejects Senate request for NBN-ZTE documents.

Newsstand points out two senators have filed two different resolutions on the Inquirer anonymous sources confrontation. Uniffors takes a simpler view of why Joker’s so mad. You can compare the resolutions calling for an investigation into the whole affair, here:

60475381!
Senator Lacson’s resolution

60485399!
Joker’s resolution

Sylvia Mayuga on the lies of power.

By the way, this is a favorite story of an uncle and worth sharing with you, my gentle readers (it’s a true story, by the way).

A group of Filipinos were touring Bolivia and the guide pointed with pride to some flora and said, “that is one our national flowers.”

“What is it called,” one of the Filipinos asked.

“The Cantuta,” said the guide.

The Filipino paused, and had to ask, “and what do you call those who harvest the flowers?”

“Ah,” said the guide, “they’re cantuteros.”

The Filipinos kept laughing all the way back to Manila.

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39 comments

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  1. inodoro ni emilie

    bribery here, bribery there. the tv networks are actually missing on the ratings games here. drop your telenovelas and gun your cameras to a new reality tv concept:

    surbribevor. outwit, outplay, outlast.

  2. nash

    I is confused, Miriam Defensor Santiago, is GMA’s new best friend but does she also have a mind of her own sometimes?

  3. nash

    Mea maxima culpa.

    I read the Santiago article. She was being smug and sarcastic.

  4. Arbet

    INE, it should be out-pay, not outplay. =P

  5. Willy

    Right Nash, here’s the script:

    “This is a political tactic. All is fair in love and politics and there is nothing the opposition can do about this,” Santiago said with a hearty laughter.

  6. hvrds

    While no one can predict what the peso rate will be by this time next year, the probability for the dollar to loose more value vs. the peso is greater than than the dollar rising.

    In the short term six months to a year it is a safe bet to short the dollar. Sell the dollar into peso liquid assets. The peso pays more in interest anyway. When the tide turns as it will be obvious one can buy back the dollar. The BSP has been loosing money trying to defend the dollar. Disinflation is bad for physical investments as it makes investments in fixed capital more expensive as the value of ones investment depreciates with the dollar cost.

    Look at fixed capital formation in the country and one would be insane to buy capital equipment at P45 to $1 and later see your cost rise by 10% if the peso rises to P40 to $1. Everyone will wait and see. The more people wait the more the spiral goes on. If you want the peso to drop in value push people to sell their dollar holdings to make imports even much cheaper and the pendellum will swing with imports rising to eat up dollars. The speculative play will thus be shorting the dollars and moving the stock market even higher. The gap between the T-Bill rates (which is lower) and the BSP’s lending, borrowing and the special deposit accounts will have to converge at a lower rate. The BSP is ripe for a speculative play. She has to control the pace of money creation but will slowly loose the tools.

    Unfortunately the growth rate is more the effect of disinflation than the real economy growing. The domestic economy is contracting and it is disinflation that is showing up in the numbers. This means that there is really no broad growth of employment accompanying the real growth. Purchasing power is improving and is slowing down inflation which is coming from the U.S. filling the world with dollars.

    You will continue to see asset inflation across the broad spectrum of assets including currencies in the short term.
    Google just passed WalMart and Toyota in total market capitalization. The HK stock market is going like gangbusters building up more bubbles.

    Total imports as a % of the total U.S. economy is only 16%. While imports into the U.S. is costing more the U.S. transnational companies are actually making more money based on the strength of other currencies all over the world where they make their overseas profits. The total value of U.S. owned assets overseas in nominal dollars is $13 trillion.

  7. DevilsAdvc8

    INE, Arbet, it should be surbribevores: outwet, outpay, out fast. (Apostol will do the voice-over, hehe)

    rewards challenge includes winning a yacht, a trip to China, and their very own personal retirement fund.

    for the immunity challenge, everyone tries to beat each other to the punch of who will invoke executive privilege or file a flawed impeachment to themselves first.

    Mike Enriquez will host.

    The networks all get high ratings, advertisers are happy, and we all get to have a good laugh.

  8. indoro ni emilie

    devils,

    rofl. not mike, apostol alone will certainly draw in viewers.

  9. manuelbuencamino

    Atty. Pulido, so young yet so Oliver.

  10. viking

    “The discussions in closed-door Cabinet and NEDA meetings are considered executive privilege and necessarily, the minutes of said closed-door meetings are also covered by executive privilege,” Santos said in a one-page letter to Senator Alan Peter Cayetano, committee chairman.”

    What the hell is happening here? gma.tv has already published the March 26 ICC cabinet committee meeting. In the minutes Neri and Favila asked pointed questions which should have taken some time to resolve. But lo! The NEDA infrastructure staff completed its evaluation report recommending approval March 29. Stunning! In my book, these two documents alone are a smoking gun. Senator Cayetano should subpoena those who prepared the report.

    We won’t ever need the NBN if we can’t have access to government information.

  11. vic

    i agree that the peso is not getting strong, it is the U.S. dollar that is getting weak against all currencies, except those that intentionally devalue their currencies as monetary policies.

    Just barely 2 or 3 years ago our Canadian $1 is worth 70 cents U.S., now they are at par and at times our is a cent over. The last time this happened was way back in l976. So anyone who suggest that the peso is getting stronger has to take a good look at other currencies countries currencies and their growth in economy. Our annual growth didn’ ever surpassed 3 %, about the same as in the u.s….

  12. Phil Cruz

    There she goes again. Secret meetings. Hiding documents. Gagging people. Always keeping things secret. Doesn’t democracy die behind closed doors?

    And she’s really pushing the envelope. Testing the mettle of the legislators and the judiciary. Really pushing the country into a constitutional crisis. A most Secretive Presidency!

  13. vic

    G-7 Countries: 2005 – 2008, GDP at Market Prices (Percentage)
    Country Year
    2005 2006 2007* 2008*
    Canada 2.9 2.7 2.5 3.0
    France 1.2 2.1 2.2 2.2
    Germany 1.1 3.0 2.9 2.2
    Italy 0.2 1.9 2.0 1.7
    Japan 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.1
    U.K. 1.9 2.8 2.7 2.5
    U.S.A. 3.2 3.3 2.1 2.8
    Total OECD 2.6 3.2 2.7 2.7
    *projected

    If you look at the chart, the u.s. growth is even bigger than the rest, but the u.s. dollar againts the Euro went down 40% and against the Canadian $ about 30%. Clear indication that the exchange rate of most countries is stable in relations to one another except the U.S.

  14. tonio

    vic:

    nice time to go for a vacation down south, eh?

    been out of the loop for a while. the fascists in the office have blocked manolo’s blog, as well as a lot of other blogging sites.

    will read back for now.

  15. DevilsAdvc8

    A group of Filipinos were touring Bolivia and the guide pointed with pride to some flora and said, “that is one our national flowers.”

    “What is it called,” one of the Filipinos asked.

    “The Cantuta,” said the guide.

    The Filipino paused, and had to ask, “and what do you call those who harvest the flowers?”

    reminds me of the song lyrics: ang mahilig uminom ng yakult, yakulero. mahilig magsulat ng kanta ay kantateroooo!

  16. cvj

    When i was a kid, someone asked me what time it is. I consulted the clock and saw that it was “ten to ten“. My older cousins who overheard me said, “masama iyon“. It took me a few decades to get the joke.

  17. vic

    tonio,

    yes, the borders going north are not so busy though that crosser just zoom by, but going south is a long lineup.

    But most retailers now, especially on the borders cities are lowering their prices to reflect the exchange rate. not good for the manufacturing export sectors though, but majority of our trade is with our neighbours south and we still on the plus side: 200 billions to 150..Porche even announced that it is lowering the prices of their cars by 10% oh boy, if only can afford to buy one and the rest will follow..

  18. pete

    mlq3,

    The impeachment scenario paints a refreshingly clearer after-storm political picture.

    The violent power struggle scenario paints a very dark clouded turbulent stormy picture.

    Only two choices, either one or the other.

    For everyone’s sake, including GMA’s, the impeachment must be allowed to take its due course. GMA must step aside by way of a leave of absence. She has three years to prepare for her and her family’s exit/exile.

  19. MAV

    “Metamorphosis of Atty Pulido”

    from “pro bono lawyer” of the Magdalo

    to “Pro Bounus” of the Pidals

  20. rom

    isn’t anyone else wondering why bribes would be offered to such people as risa baraquel and beltran (hataman doesn’t count because he’s a pimp who would do anything for money anyway)? while it is true that an endorsement by one of these would give tons of credibility to the impeachment complaint, it is also true that only an absolute imbecile would even imagine a scenario where they would be convinced to do anything that benefits gloria. Are gloria’s men so stupid?

  21. manuelbuencamino

    rom.

    actually gloria’s men outsmarted themselves. No one from the administration would sign the complaint kasi mahahalatang bakuna. So they had to get the opposition to do it. But how? Well, in the only way they know: Buy people. So they tried to bribe people like Beltran to get credibility for their bakuna complaint. Kung makalusot okay. Kung hindi naman eh they can always say, are we so stupid as to try to bribe people like baraquel and beltran?

    But what happened was no one bothered to put a an off switch to the plan So San Luis signed the complaint. All by his lonesome. And to top it all, identified pa siya with Kampi. Ayun nagkaleche-leche tuloy pati si Miriam di nakapagpigil magsalita.

    I don’t know if it’s allowed by House rules but maybe San Luis can withdraw his endorsement to save everyone from further embarrassment.

  22. holyfather

    I’m headed to Bolivia to become a professional harvester.

  23. DevilsAdvc8

    “She has three years to prepare for her and her family’s exit/exile.”

    you don’t have to tell her. she’s scampering even now. NBN, CyberEd, all these are just ways of fattening her “retirement fund.”

  24. rom

    manuelbuencamino: thanks. i see your point.

  25. MAV

    “A diplomat at Myanmar’s embassy in London has resigned to protest his country’s “appalling” crackdown on monks at the heart of pro-democracy demonstrations, the BBC reported Tuesday.

    Ye Min Tun, a second secretary at the embassy according to British government records, said Myanmar’s military leaders had ignored the people’s wish to negotiate with protestors.”

    Long live the brave BURMESE people!

  26. supremo

    “I don’t know if it’s allowed by House rules but maybe San Luis can withdraw his endorsement to save everyone from further embarrassment.”

    The impeachment case is not yet in the hands of the committee on justice. Once it reaches the committee on justice, no other impeachment case may be filed against Arroyo within one year.

    Puro drama itong si Arroyo.

  27. pete

    Devadv8,

    accelerated looting could be stopped atleast by a leave of absence if she doesn’ resign or could not be ousted.

    stop three years of looting, save billions, save more lives

  28. inodoro ni emilie

    “Like Executive Order 464 and Administrative Order 197, the Lozano and Pulido complaints are a perversion of constitutional principles. They are clumsy shields, but nonetheless effective in that the law-abiding are stuck trying to smash them, as the administration wallows in its culture of impunity.” –pdi 10 oct

    pambababoy to the max.

    [and then i can hear someone here cheer: “but, see, its within the rule of law!”]

  29. benign0

    “There she goes again. Secret meetings. Hiding documents. Gagging people. Always keeping things secret. Doesn’t democracy die behind closed doors?”
    =======

    As I said in my book: “[…] Each of these three examples represents the three key enablers to developing a
    cohesive and productive society – security, empowerment, and access. Without security there can be no openness. Without empowerment, there can be no efficiency.
    Without access there can be no simplicity. A society where everything is closed, inefficient, and complicated is fertile breeding ground for corruption.”

  30. vic

    Then if the filing of the complaints by these two ‘officers of the law’ is to perverse the process, what can be the professional body regulating the practice of law doing about it? They should have been investigated and disbarred if found out being “perverts”. About time to clean up also the Law Profession of its undesirables just as also about time to clean up the government of its undesirables. But what to do?? that is the question…Isn’t the Philippine founded on principles that recognize the
    Suremacy of God and the rule of law also?..And violation of either is a serious sin…

  31. inodoro ni emilie

    vic,

    kill all lawyers–shakespeare

  32. Red's Herring - Francisco, Lozano and Pulido

    […]But who “effectively” closed the constitutional remedy of impeachment to the opposition? The answer is the Philippine Supreme Court in Francisco, Jr. v. House of Representatives (November 10, 2003).

    The Court has practically crippled the impeachment process by adopting the Bernasian reading of “initiate” under Article XI, Section 3 of the Constitution in lieu of the interpretation of the House of Representatives, and taking up what it supposed as its “activist” role, declared such interpretation of a coordinate branch, contained in the House Impeachment Rules, unconstitutional.

    Under the impeachment gun then was Hilario Davide, Jr. and so the robed gang huddled together and quite expectedly hailed their Chief – at the expense of the Constitution[…]

  33. Beancurd

    Francisco vs. House of Rep was decided in record time, less than a month from the filing of the case. Of course, somebody will always invoke the rule of law but put fools on those high seats and they will still say rule of law. put crooks there and still the rule of law. put even a monkey there and still some will claim the rule of law even if it is a monkey ruling.

    still, the joke is lost on those adherents; instead of the lady justice being blind, the adherents are the ones not being able to see. Or is it a case of weather weather lang o kung saang panig ka ng bakod nakatayo?

  34. Beancurd

    mlq3, would you be so kind as to post here a copy of the Pulido Impeachment Complaint. So much has been said about it and about Pulido but I have not seen a copy of the complaint, only news about it.

    Last I heard, any citizen can file an impeachment complaint, so whether Pulido’s complaint was like Lozano’s would depend largely on the content of the complaint filed. I’ve read Lozano’s complaint and my personal opinion is that it was weak to say the least.

    And it is not yet too late for Congress to hold a contrary opinion from the decision of the SC in the Francisco Case. On matters that are clearly within the sole and exclusive domain of Congress, such as impeachment, Congress’ interpretations should carry great weight if not given paramount importance, even deferrence by the SC.

    Inidoro, you would not like it if you start killing lawyers because you would not then know where to stop, or to begin in the first place. It would mean killing Besides, the quote from shakespear was, to my recollection, a compliment.

    Vic, sin has no place in the country’s legal system, it is either legal or illegal with the definition of illegal being those expressly prohibited. Of course, there are some “limbos” in between but that is generally it.

  35. mlq3

    beancurd, it’s in yesterday;s blog entry.

  36. MAV

    mlq3:pls “explain “pulido’s metamorphosis from pro bono to prof. bonus.ty!

  37. ramrod

    To GMA and company:

    “Its the time of year,
    when good friends are dear.
    And you wish you could take more,
    from the people you made poor.”

  38. ramrod

    hey guys,

    Can anybody make a list of the major recent/upcoming political events in the Philippines?

  39. inodoro ni emilie

    garcia vs puno vs jdv. the tribal councils are shaping. the surbribevores reality game is about to begin.

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