Connect-the-dots

In today’s news, ASEAN OKs rights body in charter. Last Sunday’s Inquirer editorial had come out in support of the proposal.

SWS: Satisfaction ratings for VP de Castro, 3 others stable.

Since 2000, more than 1,700 civilians killed, wounded in terror attacks, mostly in Mindanao. This means more casualties than, say, Indonesia. Then 1,000 families evacuated; 130 MILF, Abu forces face arrest but Warrants vs beheading suspects on hold.

Appointments merry-go-round: Palace names Defensor bank board director. There’s an interesting account of behind-the-scenes lobbying in the Palace, to retain or be given jobs: see Last-minute lobbying stalls Cabinet revamp:

Reyes, who is now on his fourth Cabinet post since he was appointed defense chief in 2001, earlier appealed to the Chief Executive during cocktails at the Palace after she delivered her State of the Nation Address last July 23…

…Also Monday, Commission on Higher Education (CHED) chairman Carlito Puno said in an interview at dzMM that it is still not yet clear whether he would indeed be replaced by National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) director general Romulo Neri as disclosed by the latter on Friday.

Court junks Trillanes bid to attend Senate sessions (and not even allow him to work from his cell? See also Judge shuts out Trillanes) In the Senate,  Villar unfazed by ouster threat over choice posts but Villar and Pimentel will meet on committees. A potential compromise involves Loren Legarda as Blue Ribbon Committee chairman. John Nery says the proposal’s worth a closer look. Meanwhile, President wants to have Sen. Santiago serve in the International Court of Justice: Santiago willing to give up Senate seat for ICJ.

Things are proceeding more smoothly in the House: 2 House Arroyos get committees for aiding de Venecia. In Uniffors thinks Reyes’ appointment and that of the President’s son, Mikey, as House Energy Committee chairman, points to a previous working relationship between Reyes and the President’s son. Uniffors also connects the dots between the appointment of Heherson Alvarez as mining czar, and the designation of the President’s brother-in-law, Ignacio Arroyo, as chairman of the House Committee on Natural Resources. See also More House officials appointed.

Also, apropos of my question concerning solar power (in yesterday’s entry), San Miguel eyeing solar power as alternative energy for facilities. Meanwhile, Water officials monitor levels in 3 major dams. See the Inquirer editorial on weird weather, and its effects on the energy situation.

Economics news: BIR misses VAT collection target for 1st five months (see Jan-May VAT take is 23.2% short also). Meanwhile, Strong peso cuts debt payments government says, but read Tony Abaya’s column which explains why this ain’t so:

It is not just the exporters who are hurting from the strong peso. The 50 or so million Filipinos who depend on monthly remittances from their relatives working abroad have lost some 18 percent of the peso proceeds of their dollars, compared to two years ago.

So have the enterprises that depend directly on tourism: hotels, restaurants, tour guides, resorts…

…[A] strong peso—and its twin, a record-breaking stock market—benefit only a small group of people: Players in the stock market and foreign portfolio managers who speculate with hundreds of millions of dollars, hiring no more than a couple of secretaries and messengers, but who will not hesitate to stampede out of the economy at the first hint of trouble, as they did in 1997.

The overwhelming majority of the population suffers from the strong peso.

Theoretically—and I underline that word—a strong peso makes oil imports, our biggest single import item, cheaper. But in reality, it doesn’t. The Shellane cooking gas that we used to buy at P495 in 2005 now costs P550 per canister. Our household consumed 54 kwh less than in the previous month, yet our Meralco bill is higher by P2,311.80. And premium gas is now more than P40 per liter. Of course, it is all due to the price of oil going past $75 per barrel, but it does take the sheen off the strong peso.

Theoretically, the strong peso makes our foreign debt and its servicing smaller. P20 billion less for every dollar that the peso appreciates, it is said. But only if we actually make a substantial payment in the here and now, which is doubtful considering that the government is strapped for cash and cannot even meet its tax collection targets.

To crow about the strong peso and the record-breaking stock market, as President Arroyo does, and to be annoyed when told that it is harming the economy, as she is, makes one wonder where she got her doctorate in economics.

Add to this, Average monthly bill for water to rise 24%. In his blog, here and here, Philippine Politics 04 has been covering the rise in electricity rates.

also, State lawyers to meet Marcos son on Lucio.

Jonas Burgos-related news: Jonas hearing focuses on car plates while Jonas looked at me for help, says witness (see Witness tells how 4 men took away Joe Burgos son also).

Overseas, Second South Korean hostage killed while Germany may end ransom payments for kidnap victims. In Indonesia, Indonesian Radical Leads Campaign on Anti-Terror Police. In Malaysia, Elite Malays and Mixed Marriage. In Thailand, Clashes in front of a royal advisor’s house irk the junta. In Japan, LDP failure in election to change Japan’s political, economic outlook. This is interesting: Pig disease hits southern Vietnam (in light of a similar outbreak here at home: Execs say hog cholera in Bulacan under control).

Nouriel Roubini’s Blog asks, Are We at The Peak of a Minsky Credit Cycle?

Specifically, the crucial macro question that we should ask ourselves today is whether we are at the peak of a Minsky Credit Cycle. Or as the UBS economist George Magnus – an expert of financial instability – put it: “Have we reached a Minsky moment?”

Hyman Minsky was an American economist who died in 1996. His main contribution to economics was a model of asset bubbles driven by credit cycles. In his view periods of economic and financial stability lead to a lowering of investors’ risk aversion and a process of releveraging. Investors start to borrow excessively and push up asset prices excessively high. In this process of releveraging there are three types of investors/borrowers. First, sound or “hedge borrowers” who can meet both interest and principal payments out of their own cash flows. Second, “speculative borrowers” who can only service interest payments out of their cash flows. These speculative borrowers need liquid capital markets that allow them to refinance and roll over their debts as they would not otherwise be able to service the principal of their debts. Finally, there are “Ponzi borrowers” cannot service neither interest or principal payments. They are called “Ponzi borrowers” as they need persistently increasing prices of the assets they invested in to keep on refinancing their debt obligations.

The other important aspect of the Minsky Credit Cycle model is the loosening of credit standards both among supervisors and regulators and among the financial institutions/lenders who, during the credit boom/bubble, find ways to avoid prudential regulations and supervisions.

Minsky’s ideas and model fit nicely the last two US credit booms and asset bubbles that ended up in a recession: the S&L-based real estate boom and bust in the late 1980s; and the tech bubble and bust in the late 1990s. But the experiences of the last few years suggest another Minsky Credit Cycle that has probably now reached its peak. First, it was the US households (and households in some other countries) that releveraged excessively: rising consumption, falling and negative savings, increased in debt burdens and overborrowing, especially in housing but also in other categories of consumer credit, an increase in leverage that was supported by rising asset prices (housing and, more recently, equity). We know now that many sub-prime borrowers, near-prime borrowers and many condo-flippers were exactly the Minsky “Ponzi borrowers”: think of all the “negative amortization mortgages” and no down-payment and no verification of income and assets and interest rate only loans and teaser rates. About 50% of all mortgage originations in 2005-2006 had such characteristics. Also, many other households (near prime and subprime borrowers) were Minsky “speculative borrowers” who expected to be able to refinance their mortgages and debts rather than paying a significant part of their principal.

In his column, Adel Tamano says there’s a way to define who belongs to the opposition:

First, the following three broad issues will determine one’s true political leanings: (1) Corruption; (2) Charter change (Cha-cha); and (3) Human Rights or extra-judicial killings. Obviously, a senator who claims to be with the opposition but refuses to push a Senate investigation on Joc-Joc Bolante, “Hello Garci” and Jose Pidal, the top three corruption scandals according to our surveys during the elections, is not an authentic oppositionist. Similarly, a GO senator who supports Cha-cha prior to 2010, against the obvious sentiments of the Filipino majority, will be shown to be a phony. In the same vein, a GO senator who refuses to take the administration to task over its lousy human rights record should rightly be viewed as an administration hack.

It is your actions that determine your opposition status, not your press releases or comments to media. That said, the choice of Senate president, alone, cannot determine one’s status as opposition or administration.

Second, another more exact method of determination of the real political sentiments of the GO senators is to see if they will remain true to their campaign promises, specifically the 10-point program of the GO. This 10-point program was approved by the GO candidates and was the basis for the policy statements and debates during the heated election period.

An interesting thing about Connie Veneracion’s columns is her clearly enlightened view towards parenting. In her column today, she discusses what se sees as the merits of an untraditional approach to education.On a related note,see The Myth About Boys by David von Drehle.

I can only dream department: Chin Wong writes about running applications directly from a flash drive… But apparently Apple is behind in this department.

In the blogosphere, David Llorito asks some interesting questions. A Nagueno in the Blogosphere demonstrates how executive leadership is undertaken.

Technorati Tags: Blogging, House of Representatives, Marcos, military, philippines, politics, president, Senate, surveys

Communal political vocabulary wanted

The weekend saw a lot of speculation concerning the President’s decision to move Neda Director-General Romulo Neri to the Commission on Higher Education, a decision that apparently took Neri himself by surprise. Most of the speculation involved the motives: was it to get Neri out of the way, because he opposed the ZTE broadband deal? Was it part of a purge of Speaker Jose de Venecia’s people in the Palace?  The implications of other presidential appointments, too, has been the grist of the political rumor mill: reports like Overhaul in gov’t continues help identify the president’s priorities, and incidentally, feeds discussion on why certain positions are quickly filled (by the usual suspects) and others left vacant.

The Neri transfer has created its own problems, though: So who’s the real education czar?

Education Secretary Jesli Lapus Sunday said there was a need to clarify an executive order designating a presidential assistant as coordinator of the
Department of Education (DepEd), Commission on Higher Education (CHEd) and the Technical Education and Skills Development Authority (TESDA).

The executive order was seen in some sectors as tantamount to appointing a de facto education czar.

“There is already an existing presidential assistant for education. And I don’t think you can call a presidential assistant a czar,” Lapus said in a phone interview.

He said he was not consulted about the executive order.

Some however, view the Neri move as a good one, including The Business Mirror editorial:

Finally, officials have seen the irony of the OFWs’ situation: as recently pointed out in a front-page story in this paper, the more dollars they remit home, the bigger the gap that has to be filled in their families’ usual budget—given that with the peso appreciating in the flood of dollars, their dollar earnings here fetch an increasingly lower peso equivalent.

A couple of OFW dependents interviewed for that Associated Press story said that in a matter of a few months, the difference in the peso equivalent of the dollars sent home by their OFW loved ones had reached P3,000 to P5,000. To make up for that decline, some OFWs have thus had to remit more, thus perpetuating the cycle.

We’re talking here of about eight million overseas Filipinos whose aggregate remittances as of April were up 26.08 percent to $4.681 billion.

This editorial reminds me of a rather depressing conversation over the weekend.

It involved an observation someone made, which goes like this. It can’t be denied that for big business, business is pretty damned good. And for some other businesses, involving small and medium scale entrepreneurs, etc., it’s pretty good, too. And the export of our fellow citizens overseas makes our economy pretty much foolproof, regardless of who is in charge of our government.

But, the person making the observation said, think of it. You’re an OFW. You earn a salary, and you remit a big chunk of it home. You send it through a bank owned by big business, which takes a cut. Your family at home takes the money you sent (minus the bank’s cut), and spends it on the following: down payment or rent in a development put up by big business; education, in a school owned by big business; utilities owned by big business; clothing, gadgets, furniture, food, etc. sold in malls owned by big business; whatever is left, you either stick in a pension or some other plan sold to your family by big business, or deposited in the same bank owned by big business…

The point being, the person making the observation said, that the money you make primarily circulates within the subsidiaries of the established big businesses: whatever escapes from that system is, when you think of it, peanuts.

In other news, Basilan quiet but tense after deferred offensive but D-day in Basilan to push through Tuesday. In Newsbreak, a report asks, AFP: Learning from Mistakes?

Angat Dam reduces Metro water supply. Government’s embarked on cloud-seeding operations, but  Cloud-seeding fails to raise dam levels. there’s a lot of speculation, too, on government moves concerning power generation. This is because it’s big, big business. Everything related to the energy sector can be big, and controversial news. See Emergency deliveries of coal, fuel oil to keep plants running for example.

Tony Lopez discusses what’s involved in bidding for a power generation facility -and why power generation’s attractive to companies like San Miguel. See Asian Energy Advisors, maintained by Mamutong, for how foreign consultants view the energy sector’s opportunities, too. Now what I want to know is why we don’t have more of these: see Vista Pinas for a picture of Southeast Asia’s largest solar power plant, right here in the Philippines!

There are so many stories emerging -the controversy surrounding Meralco’s raising electric rates, arguments over whether there’s a real, or simulated, power shortage, what sort of deals are being made and who will profit from them- that it’s dizzying. Hopefully some bloggers familiar with the various issues will start posting and dissecting things.

Elsewhere on the economic front, Stock market bull run over — Deutsche Bank (not, the bank says, the government’s doing; bright spot today was GMA-7 stocks shine in trading debut, even as RP bourse falls). You may have noticed the Marcoses are aggressively pursuing ownership of shares and properties in the courts: US papers show Tan was Marcos’ partner.

Trying to expand his options, Villar says More choices for Blue Ribbon head. Playing for time, too:  Resolving Senate impasse may take 3 weeks, says Villar.

Overseas, Bangkok is “transfixed” by rumors concerning the Crown Prince’s health: see Rumor Nation. In Japan,  Abe Vows to Stay After Losing Japan’s Upper House (his party lost in the upper house; what’s interesting is how an upper house election is understood in Japan as in the nature of a referendum on the sitting administration). In Rorschach and Awe, Katherine Eban looks at how CIA psychologists reverse-engineered training they developed, to help US soldiers resist Communist-style interrogation techniques, and developed today’s “coercive interrogation methods”.

My column for today is Communal political vocabulary wanted.
Amando Doronila and Jarius Bondoc both tackle the ongoing reorganization of the Senate, and the problems it poses for Senate President Villar. Much will hinge, apparently, on who becomes Chairman of the powerful Blue Ribbon committee. The administration wants Joker Arroyo to keep it; some of Villar’s allies in the opposition are threatening to dump him if he gives in. In the House, Efren Danao tackles the so-called “independent” bloc formed by Rep. Garcia.
Quite a thought-provoking column by Conrado de Quiros today.

Also, Rasheed Abou-Alsamh on what TV shows tell us about a certain society.

In the blogosphere, my Inquirer Current entry is Calendar of values. John Nery, in his entry, asks, what was the best political insult?

Torn and Frayed points out the remarkable capacity of Filipinos to remember names and faces, and he tries to explain why this may be so.

Placeholder undertakes a thorough, and valuable, discussion on the automation of elections. He points to a report by Halal Marangal on the May 2007 elections, and its recommendations for a rational automation of elections.

Postcard Headlines gives a summary of the circumstances surrounding the abduction and continued disappearance of Jonas Burgos. See the news report, CA resumes hearing on Burgos disappearance.

blog@AWBHoldings.com also gives an enlightening summary of the circumstances that have led the Supreme Court to instruct the armed forces to produce Burgos (a deadline the military didn’t meet). In her blog, Notes of Marichu Lambino, she says what’s left is for those concerned to petition for a whole bunch of subpoenas:

General Bacarro and their other representatives are most likely already in transit to the Court of Appeals. They are expected to deny custody of Jonas Burgos.

Don’t let them get away with it. Subpoena, or move for the issuance of a subpoena ad testificandum and duces tecum for Army chief Lt. Gen. Romeo Tolentino and his intel report; he said that they did a background check on agriculturist Jonas Burgos and claimed he was a member of the New People’s Army “Front Committee 2 based in Bulacan”, and that he has the intel report to show for it (subpoena duces tecum for the intel report).

Parties to an action are entitled to the issuance of processes that would produce the evidence for their case; and if the Court of Appeals denies the Motion for issuance of subpoenas, then the Supreme Court should be able to order the Court of Appeals. This is an evidentiary hearing, or would today turn into an evidentiary hearing, because the Supreme Court had anticipated that the respondents would deny custody; and that was why they had ordered the parties to bring the person of Jonas Burgos to the Court of Appeals.

If those subpoenaed allege that matters of “national security” prevent them from testifying and from producing the documents, they can be given an executive session with the justices and the parties and no one else attending, and the records could be asked to be sealed if the Court thinks that these involve the sensitive matters (like names of agents, etc.). But if they refuse altogether to testify and to bring those reports, the petitioners could move to cite them in contempt.  And if in contempt, have them detained. Until they comply with the order to testify and produce the report. I know; if you push this to the legal limits, if the Court of Appeals and the Supreme Court use the extent of all the authority that they have, we might have an Armed Forces refusing to obey the writs of the Court. At some point, if the Supreme Court pushed this to the extent of all its authority, you’d have a stand-off. I know. But what else are we to do? Where else would the Burgoses run to?   

In his blog, Village Idiot Savant discusses the origin of the “trisikad” used in Davao.

And just for rather odd fun: the Hitler Safety Dance.

Technorati Tags: Blogging, constitution, elections, human rights, media, military, philippines, politics, president

Tag Fiesta

This entry is based on the ongoing blogger project, The Top 10 Emerging Influential Blogs in 2007, of Janette Toral. Influential is a ticklish thing to define, so let’s just say influential ranges from the personal (hey, I like reading such-and-such a blog) to the tangible in terms of link love… Anyway.The blogs speak for themselves. I’m not 100% sure they’re all post-August 2006 blogs, though.

1. Ricky Carandang Reporting
2. The Patsada Karajaw Nation
3. Tingog.com: The Voice of the Filipino
4. CAFFiend
5. Dispatches by Jesus Llanto
6. smoke
7. The Bayanihan Blog Network
8. Placeholder
9. The Magnificent Atty. Perez
10. Puckering Time

And on to being tagged for various memes.

Macaula.com and Feels Great to be Pinoy: well,

1. In San Carlos City, Negros Occidental, a hacendero’s son once took me around a property they were developing. It was a small residential village. He pointed to the various homes under construction: “here, is a seaman’s home, over there, a home built by a nurse in Texas, there, a caregiver from London’s home, and that one is the home of a carpenter in Saudi.” Each of these people, upon further investigation, had parents who were sakadas; in one lifetime, they’d made the leap from the peasantry to the middle class. This is remarkable and will eventually have long-term, positive, consequences.

2. The students I’ve met in so many places around the country, and how they teach me, every time, to look at problems and solutions with fresh eyes. While I worry that much is being lost by way of traditions and a shared culture, because of the breakdown in our institutions, I admire the sense of freedom, the lack of being limited by these things, that these students show. Literally, nothing will be impossible for them.

3. The way it’s still possible, sooner or later, to engage in productive discussions even with those whose views I strongly disagree with.

Two from baratillo @ cubao:

Six weird things about me meme.

1. I like peas microwaved with butter.
2. I am convinced that even if only a few drops of rain fall on my head, I’ll end up sick.
3. I tend to consume cigarettes very quickly.
4. I have a horror of drafts.
5. For some reason, I used to be unable to work without music; now, music gets in the way of thinking when I work.
6. When I am a passenger in a car, I end up subconsciously stamping my feet on the floor, miming braking as if I’m the one driving.

Tagging: anyone.

and that postcard meme, Only in the Philippines!

Tagging: anyone.

Technorati Tags: Blogging

Auntie Fussbudget and Uncle Sam

That word -fussbudget- was used by a congressman I talked to yesterday, to confirm if I was right in stating the President’s never submitted her proposed budget right after delivering the Sona, as tradition used to warrant. I also used our conversation to sound out my ideas (which I presented in yesterday’s entry) on the President and the budget. The congressman said I was correct in saying the President had failed to submit the budget on Sona day, and had been the first president to break with tradition. But as for the reasons behind it, the representative said I wrong. So why, I asked, has the President failed to submit a budget in keeping with tradition?

“She’s a fussbudget, can’t stop fiddling, and letting well enough alone,” the congressman said, with an exasperated snort (and the congressman is an ally of the President, most of the time). He says the President goes over the proposed budget line by line -debating each line, he says, up to an hour and a half for each line- to a degree that’s frankly, disturbing. She apparently views each line entry as a battle of the will between herself and the bureaucracy and Congress.

He gave the example of a small village road. The President would ask, why was there no appropriation? The Secretary of Public Works would say, the road had been built. The President would make phone calls, to interrogate other officials, to confirm whether the road had been built, and if so, how many kilometers, and what was the width: meanwhile forestalling any movement on overall budgetary priorities.

Just when I was talking about the Philippine budget, another government budget hits the headlines: the proposed US Budget for 2008. A few weeks ago, these was what the administration was saying:  Palace thanks U.S. Congress for $30-M foreign military funding to RP:

Malacanang expressed today its thanks to both houses of the US Congress and Executive Branch for appropriating a $30-million foreign military funding to the Philippines to fight terrorism and bring lasting peace and progress in Mindanao.

Press Secretary Ignacio R. Bunye said both Houses of the US Congress have approved and even increased by almost three-fold to $30 million the military funding for the Philippines from the Executive Department proposal of only $11 million.

In a statement, Bunye said the increased amount was appropriated under the 2008 Foreign Military Funding bill by both Houses of the US Congress even after several Philippine groups “have tried to stop the US funding for reasons of political expediency.”…

…Bunye added that the US Senate Committee on Appropriations also increased to $30 million from $26 million the Economic Support Fund for the Philippines and urged the Executive Branch to request for more once there is a peace agreement between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF).

A flurry of local headlines began with ABS-CBN’s north American Bureau claiming appropriations for military assistance, etc. to the country had been reduced in the proposed budget. This triggered statements such as US slashes military aid, and then a series of reactions, Malacañang denies reported cut in US aid to RP military, police, and  US Embassy on aid cut: Don’t look at the numbers. The story, as carried by the Xinxua News Agency says it best: Philippines says U.S. aid reduction not to affect military modernization program. Filipinos were in a panic, and generating news.

Eventually, according to Report of US aid cut triggers uproar, the initial report turned to be false. Or was it?

US Embassy spokesperson Matthew Lussenhop said the story got ahead of the US appropriations process.

“I think it’s misleading to say that assistance has been cut,” Lussenhop told the Inquirer by phone. “The US federal government’s budget for fiscal year 2008 hasn’t been passed yet…It would be premature to say that aid has been cut.”

In the proposed US budget for foreign operations, posted at the US state department website, the department requested a total 2008 funding of $84.7 million.

This is $28.5 million less than the actual total assistance given to the Philippines in 2006 at $113.2 million.

Among the big decreases sought are for foreign military financing and international military education.

There are, however, proposed increases, such as for Economic Support Fund (from $24.7 million to $26 million). Also sought to be increased are funding for infrastructure, private sector competitiveness and human rights….

More specifically, the state department’s per-country proposal for foreign military aid, as posted on its website, showed a cut in figures for the Philippines, from actual appropriations in 2006 of around $30 million to $17.6 million in 2007 and $11.1 million in 2008.

The latter number carried the heading “proposed.”

Proposed 2008 appropriations for countries across Africa, Asia and the Pacific and the Middle East also showed a general downtrend.

The US Senate, in a report, recommended a $30-million appropriation for foreign military financing for the Philippines, or more than double the state department’s recommendation.

You can actually track the progress of any Congressional bill online, including the votes in each house: see GovTrack.us and for scrutiny of the spending bills propose, see Washingtonwatch.com.  You can try searching within the proposed budget itself.  We can only dream of being able to do the same, here at home. Anyway, the process, so far, the President of the United States has proposed a 2008 Budget (see summaries for the departments of State and Defense) that the US Congress has yet to pass.

So what happened? What was all the panic about?
Take a look at this report,

Titled, Abu Sayyaf: Target of Philippine-U.S. Anti-Terrorism Cooperation Updated January 24, 2007.
And the concluding statement from the report:

The Bush Administration has considered placing the MILF on the U.S. list of terrorist organizations. However, the Arroyo Administration has opposed such a move as potentially jeopardizing the peace negotiations.

As of the beginning of 2006, the Bush Administration has voiced support for the Philippine-MILF peace negotiations as the best means of de-linking the MILF from JI and Abu Sayyaf.

This support boosts the Arroyo Administration against the AFP’s advocacy of a militarily-aggressive strategy toward the MILF. Nevertheless, thenew U.S. military role in western Mindanao increases the risk of a clash involving U.S. military personnel with the MILF. In January 2006, 60 U.S. military personnel conducted training for several hundred AFP personnel near Cotobato Cityin the heart of MILF territory. The U.S. contingent also was to carry out civic action projects (medical, dental, and veterinary services) in nearby Muslim villages. The U.S. military presence drew a protest march by Muslim civilian groups allied with the MILF and a warning from an MILF central committee official over the increasing presence of U.S. military forces in the Muslim areas of Mindanao.

The report says that basically, there’s a policy division between civilian and military officials in our government. The US, for its part, wanted to play a more aggressive role in Mindanao, whether against the Abu Sayyaf or the MILF. But the Philippine government, with regards to the MILF at least, wanted to keep the peace process going.

Now recent events in Mindanao, have put the peace process on hold. The AFP is gearing up for an offensive against the MILF. This report to the US Congress had explored the possibilities raised by a breakdown in the peace process:

Moreover, a breakdown of the negotiations and the cease-fire likely would confront the Bush Administration with policy decisions regarding a U.S. role in a wider war. The AFP could be expected to propose increased supplies of U.S. arms and military equipment; and it likely would argue for a more direct U.S. military role. The Philippine government might change its previous policy of opposition to a U.S. military role against the MILF and encourage U.S. actions against the MILF at least in a role similar to that in the joint operations against Abu Sayyaf.

If significant elements of the MILF opposed a peace agreement and moved closer to JI and Abu Sayyaf, and if they were able to continue or expand terrorist operations, the Bush Administration would be faced with a different kind of challenge but one that could include similar pressures for greater U.S. military involvement. That, too, would be the case if a peace agreement were not followed by effective measures against JI on Mindanao. There also would be the challenge of proceeding with implementing projects financed by $260 million in U.S. aid to Mindanao since 2001 (including $25 million in FY2006). This commitment, too, could confront the Administration with a policydecision of whether or not to employ U.S. pressure on the Philippine government to implement faithfully its obligations under a peace agreement. This scenario is plausible, given the reputed poor performance of Philippine governments in implementing the 1977 and 1996 agreements with the MNLF.

Now, the real news may be here: US sending Negroponte to ASEAN meetings (not sending the US Secretary of State is going to revive the complaint of Asean countries that the region ranks low in the US list of priorities, a long-standing complaint, despite a face-saving effort to shrug off Rice’s non-attendance) Canadian Foreign Minister not going, either, and Amb. Paynor, speaking for our government, says the Rice no-show doesn’t imply anything serious -certainly, by no means, a lack of US interest in Asean Oh really? John Brandon of the Asia Foundation suggests Asean, at least, thinks otherwise:

The Bush Administration recently announced that it will cancel this September’s U.S. –Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) summit. ASEAN is celebrating its 40th year, and the U.S.-ASEAN dialogue is celebrating its 30th. The cancellation of this landmark summit was due to the upcoming release of the report card on the American surge in Iraq to the U.S. Congress, slated for the same time.  Although Iraq is the U.S.’s principal foreign policy issue, to Southeast Asians, this summit cancellation validates the perception that the U.S. views Southeast Asia with benign neglect and lacks a long-term strategy toward the region.   

Anyway, back to Negroponte. He will be spending a day talking to Philippine officials prior to the Asean talks. The last time he was here, the discussion was reportedly about martial law.  This time around, it seems logical that American policy vis-a-vis the Abu Sayaff, the MILF, and what course the government should pursue in the wake of the Lamitan massacre, will be Number One on the agenda. When news like this is presented: MILF official says its talking with gov’t to avert Basilan battle, compare it with the American briefing paper above. Is there a divergence in policy? Military stands down, delays Basilan push: who is holding the AFP back, is it the President? And if so, was the story from the ABS-CBN Bureau in the States a leak from US government sources, to pressure the Philippine government? Or the opposite?

In other news, DOF asked for asset-sale plan.

Water, power shortage: Arroyo orders agencies to prepare for the worst, although Napocor assures end to brownouts in Luzon. But within a year or two, Mindanao will not have enough power; the Visayas is already suffering a power crunch, too.
No Jonas Burgos when AFP goes to SC. An email I got recounted this:

Ricky Carandang (ANC) asked an AFP official this question in regard to their saying Jonas Burgos’ disappearance may be part of an NPA purge – how could the NPA have acquired the AFP impounded vehicle which was used to abduct Jonas?  The AFP official offered no explanation.

My Arab News column for the week is Conflicting Definitions of Poverty, while my column for today is Back to basics. Other columnists’ views on the Sona from Conrado de Quiros, who compares the speech to the ones Marcos used to deliver,  from Bong Austero, who interpreted the speech from a Human Resources professional’s point of view, and Connie Veneracion, who has a very interesting discussion on bonds and the VAT in Taiwan. The most humorous take on the speech was provided by Manuel Buencamino.

smoke says the new law on moveable holidays got her goat.

Seems to me the whole thing was simply meant to jolt the Philippine government into consulting with the USA on what it intends to do in Mindanao.

Technorati Tags: Blogging, House of Representatives, human rights, media, military, philippines, politics, president, Senate, society, Washington DC

Negotiating the Budget

In his blog, Jove Francisco gave an outstanding behind-the-scenes account of the State of the Nation Address, as well as a critique from the invaluable point of view of someone who has covered the President throughout her stay in office. He also gives a sneak peek into the proposed national budget, which (again) the President didn’t submit to Congress on the day of her speech (unlike her predecessors). To be sure, press releases were issued outlining the proposed budget; and news reports indicate that the President has approved the budget to be submitted. However, the proposed budget won’t actually be submitted to the House until August 22, which is two days before the deadline set by law.

Yesterday, on Twink Macaraig’s show, I suggested that the President’s consistent failure (or more properly, refusal to conform with tradition, much as of course she complies with the deadlines imposed by law) to submit her proposed budget after making her speech, reflects her approach to the presidency and her attitude towards building the Congressional alliances necessary to get things done. As I’ve said in the past, agenda-setting is one of the biggest powers of any president. The State of the National Address sets the agenda, both for Congress and the public. But the proposed budget is, in terms of the House at least, the only agenda that matters.

The House has the exclusive power of the purse; even the Senate can only wait for the General Appropriations Act crafted by the House, before it can, in turn, propose further amendments and revisions (if the House dilly-dallies, the Senate gets blamed for a late passage of the budget). Since the President, however, submits a proposed budget, the deliberations of Congress is essentially circumscribed by the chief executive’s proposals. At the end of the whole thing is the President’s ability to veto legislation, including whatever General Appropriations Act the Congress passes.

Now, to return to my point on the significance of the President’s not submitting her proposed budget after she delivers her Sona.

I told Twink there can only be two reasons. The first would be, inefficiency when it comes to what President Marcos used to call “complete staff work.” The proposed budget hasn’t been submitted on time, because the required work wasn’t done on time, which would indicate inefficiency in the executive branch. To give the President and the bureaucracy the benefit of the doubt, I am inclined to assume that isn’t the reason.

The other reason, then, I proposed, must be a tactical one. The President, who always lavishes a lot of time and attention on patronage-related projects which other presidents weren’t inclined to dwell on, views her Sona as a kind of appetizer. It’s a way of dangling projects before her supporters (and potential allies even from opposition circles) without actually committing to them right away. By delaying the submission of the proposed budget, the President has additional time to accomodate allies and punish enemies. It is much easier for the House to approve a presidential proposal, than it is to strike it out. A president’s budget proposal sets the parameters, which is why previous presidents actively involved the House in the formulation of the budget. Presidents have also always maintained an office in Congress, to nurse the budget and their other pet legislation through the legislative mill.

Thing is, past presidents were not tentative about budget proposals, the way the current President is. Being tentative suits her fine, and illustrates how she believes everything is negotiable, and it suggests how tentatively, too, she views her office and its powers. Now to be sure, the process more or less works, for her. I told Twink that the President is like a gardener, fussing over hundreds of little potted plants in a greenhouse; all that fussing produces results. It’s not how her predecessors would have done it (the Speaker, for one, was supposed to do that fussing), but it’s the way the President likes to attend to matters.

It shows, too, how slovenly Congress has become: and additionally, how spoiled the House has become. If everything, always, is negotiable, then there isn’t an incentive to produce results, and on time. The end result is that to muster a quorum to consider the budget, “incentives” have to be applied, and the same, for all we know, may apply to committees charged with deliberating on the budget, too. A far cry from the days when a president created momentum two ways, through the Sona and the submission of the proposed budget, simultaneously, a proposal, incidentally, that already went through the consensus-building process prior to submission.

Anyway, outside of the President’s partisan political constituency, her other major constituency, businessmen, have been muted in their response. See The Unlawyer’s summary of business’ reactions.

Mongster’s Nest provides a thorough critique of his own, of the Sona. Iniibig ko ang Pilipinas! wonders what the fuss was about.
In the blogosphere, I enjoyed this entry very much, in the blog of Jae Fever. There is a kind of fulfillment from a sense of philosophical detachment. Much as we more often than not disagree, faithful readers like Rego and Bencard (and even occasional visitors like Benign0) do make a vital point when they ask, what’s all the hubbub about, and, with all the attention focused on the President, the deeper problems won’t vanish, even if she vanished, and whether she goes sooner or later, what will those who are itching to replace her hope to achieve? AKOMISO answers, very well, I think, these questions, even as he points out the flaws in such questions.

Technorati Tags: House of Representatives, Philippines Free Press, politics, president, Senate

Post-SONA hangover 2007 edition

Photographs of protesters, including Korean “exposurists,” at My World and Street Documentaries.

Pinoy Ambisyoso gives capsule reviews of some reactions;  the PCIJ Blog runs through other reactions, from all sides of the political fence (former president Ramos was, apparently, a bit cranky) but perhaps the most concise description comes from baratillo@cubao, who calls it the “Eat My Shorts Speech,” and who provides his own condensed version of the address.

Three bloggers’ entries struck me the most.

First, lawyer Marichu Lambino who zeroed in on the beginning and end of the President’s speech:

Any experienced ghostwriter  of  formal speeches might tell you that the theme of a formal speech, or the sentiment of the speaker, is found in the beginning and end of the speech – the rest are just bridges, bridge- paragraphs, of the beginning to the end.

In the President’s SONA, those bridge-paragraphs were literally, of bridges – roads, airports, shiplanes, waterways, power plants. A bit of legislative agenda here and there on the political assassinations and a pitch for education here and there.

85% of the body of the SONA – highways, byways, airways, waterways – tell us that the nation has a President who is surely a ways-and-means committee leader (no pun meant); that the country has always had her, a President who, during work-hours, was awake and able to sign infrastructure contracts and disbursement vouchers and priority yellow-tabbed instructions to the budget department for her allies (never mind commissions up and down here and there).

And she concludes with an analysis of what is rapidly becoming the most quotable part of the President’s address:

Her real sentiment is found at the end of her speech, the most applauded, cued or not. For those who did not get why it was the most applauded or why it had been cued for that, here’s why:

She said: “From where I sit, I can tell you: a President can always be as strong as she wants to be.” (strongest applause).

“always” is not the same as “only”; in fact, it has the opposite meaning. “ xxx a President can always be as strong as she wants to be” is not the same as “xxx a President can only be as strong as she wants to be”; certain people might have thought they heard the latter and were puzzled, or applauded her; but it was the former that she said. It’s the opposite. The latter ( “I can only be as strong as I want to be”) implies that her power is limited by her will to exercise her powers, or that her will will not exceed her limited power. It’s the opposite. She will “always be as strong” as she wants to be. That means her powers are not limited by anything (“as strong as she wants to be”) or that she thinks her powers are not limited by anything. She could have said “as strong as required by the nation’s interest”, or something. But she said “always as strong as she wants to be.” …

…But only to add: “Make no mistake: I will not stand idly if anyone tries to stand in the way of the national interest and tries to block the national vision.”

And that’s where she finished with: she will always be as strong as she wants to be.

She is telling critics, destabilizers, ambitious politicians (and this is where she finished): Don’t dismiss me. You haven’t seen the last of me. I am still President.

And that’s the smallness of this speech.

Another lawyer, Edwin Lacierda (no fan of the President), points out that the gross ignorance of protocol during the SONA indicates a deeper problem:

Symbolically, the disorganized hustle and bustle of the solons before and while the President is entering reflects the lack of formal and substantive order in the business of government. The marketplace ambience symbolically reflects the lack of respect for the President. And no matter how one detests this incumbent president, the solons, whether administration or opposition, must learn to honor the office of the President, never mind the holder. In august halls like the Batasan and in formal gatherings like the SONA, swords are sheathed and left at the door.

The third entry that struck me, actually consists of two entries by the same blogger. In “First World country in 20 years” to be today’s SONA, blogger AKOMISMO, a teacher at the Philippine Science High School, offered up a pre-SONA reflection:

While I can’t comment fully on the speech yet due to obvious reasons, I also wouldn’t want to say how unrealistic her vision is. Everyone deserves the chance to dream. However, I would like to raise an important point made by the Inquirer’s editorial today — that our country needs a leader, not a manager. We don’t need just a checklist of accomplishments and goals; we need a direction, a vision and a dream. PGMA may dream all she will, but to get our people sold on that dream is another matter. Having our people believe in her and  work with her on this requires the talents and charisma of a leader that this manager of a President has yet to or may never even become. How she attempts to do this in the SONA will be one thing I’m looking out for.

He then conducted an interesting activity, which he describes in What my students taught me about the SONA: as he and his students watched the speech, they exchanged views on what was going on:

They questioned everything from why people generalize that the Philippines is corrupt, to why there are still poor people despite the economic gains we have had. They weren’t even blinded by the mention of the Philippine Science High School — Why did GMA mention those victories, siya ba yung nanalo?…

…Our discussion after the SONA quickly shifted from an analysis of her key points (if there were any, as one student pointed out) and into who is to blame for our society’s ills. We didn’t dwell long on that however, and moved instead into how to heal. It was then clear to me that a lot of them actually appreciate GMA’s efforts but recognize that it isn’t just the government who runs our country. Our nations rests on the backs of the people too.

It was at that point where I put aside all my knowledge of history and political science and just listened to what thought and felt. They convinced me that federalism could just work — people are selfish anyway, so let’s leave them alone — and that our people should think of each other more. Of course, their arguments are crude but they see things which are too obvious and yet are often missed out by those in the academia…

And what I learned that afternoon is that in our classrooms, ladies and gentlemen, are people who are fiercely in love with their country. They may not show it, they may not even speak it, but deep down they want to do what they can to make it better. I don’t see the youth others describe as lusting after wealth and comfort in foreign shores. Of course, my students see the valid need in working abroad and do not disregard their efforts — a lot have relatives and friends working as OFWs, calling them martyrs — but most would rather have it that they stay.

Here’s what other students had to say: Underside found it “a load of crap”; ar_21684 focused on fashion, to make a political point; quinkoy tawops was very appreciative of the SONA, and deepened his admiration of the President; put these and other student’s comments together, and you will find a picture very similar to what AKOMISMO’s described.

For other reactions, few bloggers were as thorough as Tingog.com, who put forward what he thought were 10 key highlights from the address. Thorough, in another sense, is NURSicism, who provides a blow-by-blow account of his reactions; point-by-point satire, on the other hand, comes courtesy of Professional Heckler:

Reports say President Arroyo’s speech was applauded 103 times, 63 times less than last year’s SONA. Malacañang has berated the sound engineer for not pressing the play button of the “canned applause” more often.

Archbishop Oscar Cruz blogged his reaction: the SONA was a signal the President intends to stay in office, and that taxes will be raised. The Archbishop and Ellen Tordesillas pretty much agree on what, to them, the President’s address truly signified: a warning.

moolah matters points to Money Smarts list of economic promises in the SONA (Reyna Elena, on the other hand, brings up past SONA promises), and reflects on the President’s remark on “social safety nets”, and how families need to create their own safety nets.

An OFW in Hong Kong wants less talk and more action (an impatience with rhetoric is also shown by Giornale di un Signorino’s choice of a quote from a congressman).

My own take on the SONA?

1. Body language says a lot. The President looked tired and drawn when she arrived at the Batasan; keeping control of things that day obviously wasn’t easy. Compared to last year’s triumphalist, even gleeful, delivery, she seemed to falter and stumble over the words a lot. And despite name-dropping like crazy, she garnered less applause than last year: and it was the loyal NBN people who did the counting, mind you.

2. A speech has three audiences: the faithful, the enemy, and the uncommitted you want to win over to your side, both foreign and domestic. I think there was more of an effort to win over the uncommitted last year, since it was the kickoff for Charter Change and failing that, the 2007 elections. This year, the President knows clearly enough, just how divided (at best) the country remains (see the most recent Pulse Asia survey, as discussed by today’s Inquirer editorial). So she made only a token effort at reconciliation in general. Instead, she concentrated her energy on rewarding friends, and dangling the prospects of gravy for anyone in Congress willing to deal with her.

Obviously, the writing on the wall’s been clear since 2005: LGU and lower house support, plus the military, will trump public opinion and the opposition anytime. Keep the pump well primed, and your gunpowder dry, and it will be the status quo. The President, for example, acknowledged the public relations severity of the political killings issue, but passed the buck to Congress. No direct orders as commander-in-chief, were given, which she could have done, with the top brass in attendance.

3. Still, mind-numbing though it can be, the President’s catalog of infrastructure projects is important. It shows how she herself understands her office; it lists her priorities. You could say the country lost its greatest Secretary of Public Works when Mrs. Arroyo became President of the Philippines. Her encyclopedic grasp of geography and pork barrel projects is breathtaking. Her inability to tie it all together in a meaningful manner, points to one of her severest handicaps as a president. The vision thing is a must, because even her own supporters need that vision thing from time to time. And the vision thing is the surest antidote to opposition.

4. I think its obvious enough the President’s worried about becoming a lame duck, which is why she took pains to remind Congress and the LGUs that the president giveth, and taketh, away. And why she has to remind her critics to behave.

5. But even her laying it on thick in terms of past, present, and future, pork, only underlines that she is inching closer to lame duck status. Unless she can pull a political surprise (which is precisely what her joke about running for office in 2010, even if it was just a joke, accomplishes: keeping everyone guessing; a politician everyone’s guessing about, remains a relevant politician). The speech was successful, though, in reminding everyone, on her side or against, that she intends to keep on fighting and keep herself on center stage.

6. but on the whole, it was a wasted opportunity, to rally the faithful; it certainly has her critics all abuzz, and serves warning that she isn’t about to clip the military: Congress can do that, if it dares. Whether she managed to telegraph to her allies, that they should be willing to continue supporting her, instead of figuring out which horse to bet on in 2010, and whether the public, at least the part of it inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt all the way to 2010, would let her stay on past that date, probably depends on more than the SONA.

7. For now, she avoided many political land mines. If she didn’t say enough about certain things, she also didn’t bring other things up, at all: the EZ deal, Chairman Abalos, etc., etc. A list of pork barrel projects isn’t something anyone can either fault her for, or criticize much: who can object to development being spread out? If it isn’t enough for some critics, it’s plenty for many of her supporters. The lack of a vision thing, well, no vision, less debate. It was a cautious speech, even when it came to the parts that seemed daring. It’s the speech of someone hedging their bets.

Technorati Tags: Blogging, philippines, politics, president, society, state of the nation

Pork Barrel Republic: SONA coverage

Opposition split on snubbing SONA: my view is, Boycotting the SONA is wrong. See also my column for today, Quackery, along with the column of Conrado de Quiros. Also, the Inquirer editorial points out something I’ve talked about before, in 2005: the Vision Thing.

Starting around 10 AM… Even before the national anthem was performed at the opening of the House, the trouble started. A point of order was raised. After the opening prayer, the shouting started. Privileged point of order was raised; pandemonium broke out. Dilangalen got into a shouting match with Defensor. Abante went berserk on the floor. Garcia’s thundered that the rules have ceased to be.

I got the above information as texted updates as of all days, the Skycable connection conked out and DZBB, where the action was reported live, was impossible to find online, so I had to unearth a functioning AM radio…

See Chaos mars opening at House.

11:12 AM Meanwhile, at the Senate (where Battle at Senate degenerates into name-calling, which could have been embarrassing if the House didn’t end up going nuts, as it has), Protesters greet Zubiri’s first day in Senate while the voting for Senate President is ongoing, while the House can’t get started.

11:25 AM Without explaining their votes, the Senate simply went through the nomination process, and with 15 votes, Manuel Villar, Jr. is the new Senate President. Aquilino Pimentel, Jr. got 7 votes because Sen. Trillanes was not allowed to attend the session. Villar says if he needs to hit the administration, he will. Sen. Lacson rose to speak: points out the new minority is 8, the new majority 15. Hits the opposition members who voted with administration senators. Sen. Pangilinan follows with a defense of his vote. Says there was a “fairly decisive election,” but that it’s time to set the elections aside. Hello? Seriously, Pangilinan should just become a Nacionalista.

11:33 In the House (per DZMM), a vote took place to determine whether or not House Secretary-General Nazareno had authority to preside over organization of the House; Nazareno’s authority was upheld, session suspended; Sec. Claudio has been dispatched to the House to try to corral the members.

11:48 Impassioned explanation of parliamentary procedure from Neptali Gonzales, Jr. Congressmen leaping to their feet to but in; House Secretary vainly trying to impose order; Dilangalen trying to make himself heard; gallery breaking out in applause for contending sides. Motion made to declare Dilangalen out of order. Dilangalen insists he is fully in order; says House has to dispose with motion on nominal voting. Chair says higher constitutional privilege raised by Rep. from Mandaluyong.

What is that motion, Dilangalen insists.

You haven’t let me finish, complains Gonzales.

More screaming.

11:52 Gonzales screams: “I move to nominate Jose de Venecia as Speaker of the House!” to thunderous applause from the gallery.

11:54 After more pandemonium, session suspended. Reporters mention there’s a “huddle-huddle” going on in floor; apparently at one point, in the pandemonium, Gonzales of Mandaluyong (acting as pit bull for the de Venecia camp) wanted Dilangalen (acting as pit bull for the Garcia group, along with Rufus Rodriguez of the opposition, apparently in a tactical alliance with the Garcia camp!) seized by the House sargeant-at-arms. Gallery apparently full of people.

Let me say at this point, that the opposition in the House, by consorting with Luis Villafuerte, et al., may be enjoying the battle but it ought to have stayed out of the fight for the same reasons the Senate opposition should have avoided making a deal with the administration.

12:05 PM Online news updates: Solons squabble as House session opens; Garcia supporters fail to derail opening of session; Villar remains Senate President; Cops bar SONA protesters.

12:12 PM DZBB radio coverage of House resumes: all’s quiet in the House session hall. Student blogs how they got a day off from school because of the SONA. Neophyte congressmen, radio reporter says, are shocked, shocked, at the tumult in the House.

12:28 PM Pro-GMA rally to take place in front of Commission on Audit. Yellow placard-bearing people apparently being sent from Quezon City Hall.

12:42 PM  House coverage resumes. Dilangalen insists on nominal voting; House Sargeant-at-arms instructed to brandish mace in front of Dilangalen to show he’s out of order. TV coverage shows mace being brandished in front of Dilangalen as congressmen huddle around and giggle. After a few minutes, the Sargeant-at-arms brings back mace to its stand by the podium. A supporter of Garcia moves to adjourn the session; supporters of de Venecia object.

12:53 TV shows Pabling Garcia in a huddle with supporters (Louie Villafuerte mopping his forehead)  and Joe de Venecia, looking very grim, in another huddle with supporters. Bongbong Marcos sits on his desk looking highly amused by everything. Ronnie Zamora waddles in to de Venecia’s huddle along with Roilo Golez, Satur Ocampo, etc.. Whispering going on.

12:56 Ricky Carandang on ANC reports that if no Speaker is elected, House may have Secretary-General preside over the House, or designate a temporary presiding officer. Carandang says the Secretary-General’s a bit “overwhelmed” by the goings-on.  de Venecia camp huddled on the Left side of Session Hall, the Garcia people on the right; opposition members zigzagging from one group to another.

Seriously, instead making his way from huddle to huddle like the QE2, Ronnie Zamora and opposition should have stepped aside and allowed the majority to engage in cannibalism in full public view.

Meanwhile, senate elections continue apace: Jinggoy voted Senate president pro tempore; Kiko is majority leader.

1:23 Radio coverage resumes. Rep. Carlos Padilla made a motion to adjourn; motion was defeated. Figthing now going on between Padilla and Rep. Defensor, acting Majority Floor Leader, who moved to have Padilla declared out of order. Reporter says some congressmen have snuck out to eat; others glued to goings-on. Reps. Mikey and Dato Arroyo, according to reporter, voted to reject motion for adjournment; reporter says the anti-adjournment group represents de Venecia’s position; so the brothers Arroyo are bandied about as pro de Venecia.

Just a note: if the House fails to elect its leadership, it will be the first time since the tradition of the State of the Nation Address began in 1936, that the House will have no leadership for the SONA.

1:30 After a brief suspension, Padilla appeals; Defensor moves for a vote; screams of Aye and Nay; Nays have it. Defensor reiterates Dilangalen’s motion: a motion that presiding officer has no authority to preside over the session. Instead of viva voce, voting will be by tellers; congressmen to stand up if they believe Secretary-General has no authority to preside (i.e. in favor of appeal). Then another group will rise to indicate they’re in favor of Secretary-General presiding (i.e. against the appeal). Rep. Escudero rises and asks how come Secretary-General’s term hadn’t been extended in the previous Congress. Defensor says by allowing the Secretary-General by not voting in a replacement, the Sec-Gen’s stay in office was ratified. Defensor says the membership of House is “estopped” from challenging the authority; snarl, bark, bark from both sides.

Congressmen try to butt in; Secretary-General calls for vote; more butting in; motion made to appoint tellers to count those in favor. Zamora moves that Binay, Cayetano and Baraquel be designated as tellers. Bongbong Marcos among those who rise.

1:37 PM  “Those against the appeal, please stand,” says presiding officer; applause from gallery. Ortega, Zamora, Zialcita designated as tellers for the other side. Some hooting from crowd and floor at one point. Arroyo sons rise.

1:41 Overheard on microphone: “They should just elect Mikey as Speaker!” Confusion over counting and over interpretation of rules. de Venecia shown on TV trying to look cheery. Garcia sitting making goldfish-like movements with his cheeks: oh, he’s chewing a big wad of gum. He rises and waddles over to Neptali Gonzales Jr., Ronnie Zamora, Dilangalen, etc. de Venecia remains seated, wiggling his eyebrows at people.

1:55 I told Ricky Carandang there are some precedents at work here: Dilangalen’s point was raised in 1949 and 1958 and rejected both times; Secretary has presided over election of Speaker in every House reorganization since 1907; no House has failed to elect a Speaker prior to State of the Nation since the SONA was first delivered in 1936; but prior to this, in 1922 House went through 11 ballotings in 2 days for the most contentious Speakership fight, when Manuel Roxas was elected Speaker in 1922.

2:11 TV clip shows Aquilino Pimentel, Jr. congratulating Villar and proposing Villar’s election be recorded as unanimous. Marked contrast to wrangling in the House. Juiciest irony: Gringo Honasan nominated Kiko Pangilinan as Majority Leader.

2:24 Ricky Carandang reports that Jose de Venecia is moving “inch by agonizing inch” closer to becoming Speaker. He’s finally been nominated for the Speakership (by Rep. Antonio Cuenco), with Rufus Rodriguez asking whether it’s fair that Garcia, if he loses, might become Minority Leader. More wrangling on the floor.

2:29 Roll call.

2:35 PM Pia Hontiveros says the minority has already selected its leader, to avoid either de Venecia or Garcia ending up minority leader. Ricky Carandang says de Venecia is grinning broadly and TV cameras show congressmen going up to him to congratulate him -implying it’s in the bag. Hontiveros says it’s safe to assume de Venecia will be Speaker. Hontiveros says Garcia didn’t even want to be nominated for the Speakership, but story has to be investigated further.

Was it all just to make de Venecia sweat, and remind him he owes his job to the Palace?

2:41 JDV circling the floor, suddenly everybody’s favorite guy. Victory laps?

2:45 Clapping on floor and gallery: Defensor moves committee be formed to inform de Venecia he was elected Speaker with 159 votes. Villafuerte tells Hontiveros the whole thing was a “sham election.”

Coverage seriously lapsed on election: how and when did it happen? This, apprently, according to Villafuerte, is why Garcia refused to be nominated, as a protest. Villafuerte says, “their will be a lingering cloud of doubt over the legitimacy of de Venecia.” Cheering erupts from floor and gallery as de Venecia is called to take his oath at the podium.

2:50 PM JDV takes his oath as Speaker. Gina de Venecia exclaims, “It’s finally finished!” Another voice, overheard: “We made it!” de Venecia is only the 2nd congressman to be elected Speaker for the fifth time; the first was Sergio Osmena who was elected Speaker 5 consecutive times. de Venecia is Speaker for the fifth time, but not consecutively.

2:57 JDV says I love you and thank you to everyone; says he will submit his “very long speech” for inclusion in the Congressional Record. Proceeds to rhetorically levitate.

3:08 Congressmen take their oaths. Propaganda from Palace on what the SONA will contain begins. News updates: De Venecia retains Speakership; Zamora minority leader. GMA7 says, 159 lawmakers pick Joe de V Speaker in ‘sham’ election.

3:23 JDV interviewed by Pia Hontiveros. Says he ended up unopposed. Says God made him Speaker. Praises Garcia. Hotniveros says Kampi calling his election a sham; JDV says no, it was conducted in plain sight. Carandang asks, when did you know you had it? JDV: Last week! When 177 congressmen and women signed a manifesto of support, in writing! Yesterday, only 40 attended other side! Whereas here we had 166-167! But i’m reaching out! United we stand, divided we fall!

3: 27 Friend ran into presidential convoy at Santolan a few minutes ago…

3:37 President arrives at the House of Representatives. Wears fuschia terno. Miguel Zubiri in attendance. Imelda Marcos floating through Session Hall in a pink terno. Pia Hontiveros quotes Sec. Rick Saludo as saying the SONA will include a statement that the “trickle down” effect is real. Fidel V. Ramos’ combover noticeably sparser. Pia Cayetano in a hideous white Maria Clara with gigantic buttons that makes it look like she’s wearing a clown suit.

3:48 ANC says closing theme of the SONA will be about bequeathing a legacy, etc., etc. Economist guest says OFW money has not contributed to poverty alleviation -surprising statement.

3:53 President’s husband, looking thin, arrives at Session Hall, waving at people. Congressional aircon has obviously conked out or is performing under par: much fan-waving among audience.

3:59 With Miriam Defensor Santiago (dressed to look like a Balinese banana) at her side, the President makes her way to Session Hall. President looks cranky.

4:00 President enters Session Hall, to standing ovation; band plays “Bathala Bless the President” (an FVR innovation) instead of the traditional “Mabuhay”; makes her way to the podium. TV coverage didn’t show if House and Senate convened and then moved to invite the President to deliver her message as tradition dictates.

4:05-4:07 Breaking all precedent (and appropriateness), President is present when Senate President and Speaker open the joint session; national anthem; invocation. Speaker introduces the President. President seems to be having problems with the bustier of her dress.

President: Thank you and congratulations. Hello, hello everybody. We are here to inaugurate a new Congress. Congratulations to everybody, everywhere. Election and politics are over. It’s time to serve without reservations and any concern other than public good, and with patriotism etc. My desire is to reach first world status in 20 years. By 2010 we should be well on our way to achieve that vision.

With tax reforms, thank you last Congress, we are well on our way; we have new taxes, thank you last Congress; we are well on our way with fiscal discipline; we are on track for priorities:

1. investment in phsysical, legal, and security infrastructure; 1,000,000 jobs every year;
2. Wider social safety net: cheap medicines, schools that are first class with good teachers and which maintains our English proficiency;
3. Investments in bringing peace to Mindanao and in crushing terrorism whatever the ideology and fighting human rights abuses whatever the cause; tribute, too, to soldiers killed.

(Applause)

We have created a Philippine model for reconciliation, built on interfaith dialogue and infrastructure investments. Infastructure is the foundation of human rights and the economy. Last year, I inaugurated Super Regions to spread development away from inequitable development concentrated on Metro Manila. The Philippines is more than just Metro Manila. Super Regions was not a gimmick! We have done much; latest survey in June says hunger rate has sharply shot down nationwide!

(Applause)

30% of Agriculture, etc. budgets will be devoted to Mindanao. This was articulated by Rufus Rodriguez in Cagayan de Oro.

Department of Agrarian Reform will move to Davao. Done right, reform will democratize us, as Magsaysay and Macapagal envisioned.

(Pays tribute to farmers in gallery who are agrarian reform benificiaries). Farmers rise and are applauded.

In the six years we’ve worked, we’ve achieved the greatest amount of irrigation ever. We will do things for fisheries as Nur Jaffar asked.

We have allocated 3 billion pesos for farm-to-market roads.

(Applause)

Ro-ro: has cut cost of agri-business products; fresh fish that cost 20,000 a ton to move now travels at 14,000. Dapitan-Dakak; and long catalog of new stops for congressional allies.

Lists congressional pork barrel projects, including Maguindanao, she’s funded.

New airports! New bridges! More improvements! Each development mentioned with name of congressional allies such as Digs Dilangalen.

Last July 10, we inaugurated 1.7 billion peso bill in Butuan! At initiative of Mayor Boy Plaza! My daddy first built bridge! I’ve done better!

(clap, clap)

Long catalog of projects, spending, provinces, and linked names of congressional allies.

Formula: province W, project X, Y pesos, congressman Z = thanks to me!

President! Tha’ts the kind of pork that has good cholesterol!

(crowd: a-ha-ha-ha)

More on spending… power plants… cameo appearances by congressional and LGU allies.

Thank you Miriam and Migz for sponsoring biofuels law!

(clap, clap)

Praises Jetropa. Mindanao needs power lines; terrorists target them; we must resolutely implement Human Security Act. Praises Enrile; says it was proposed by him soon after first WTC bombing; praises Villar and Pimentel for crafting it.

Let’s go to Central Philippines…

Visayas: Pork, pork, clap, clap.

Palawan: Pork pork, clap, clap.

Power barges for 2009 shortfall in elecricity in Cebu.

Cebu: pork, pork, nature park, pork, pork, clap, clap, clap, clap.

Enumeration of pork, pork, pesos, pesos, congressman, congressman, continues…

Bicol: geography, pork, pork, pesos, pork, clap, clap, clap. biggest calamity fund release took place under me: Bicol is getting its own.

North Luzon Agri-Business Quadrangle: roads, pork, speed up, pork, pesos, pork. I ask Congress to get companies to pay their share directly to LGUs.

Pangasinan: pork, airport, pork, clap, clap.

Cagayan: pork, agri-business zone we inherited from FVR, pesos, clap, clap.

Chief Justice Puno, I’m glad to have you here…

Tarlac, Poro Point: pork, pork, clap, clap. We’re spreading the cheer across the political spectrum; we’re putting country ahead, setting aside politics.

(happy applause)

Nueva Viscaya, Isabela, etc. included in geohazard mapping.

Windmills Bongbong Marcos started will be expanded.

Luzon Urban Beltway: pork! 5 billion pesos Mt. Pinatubo hazard irrigation project! Lubao protected from flooding!

(clap, clap)

Subic Clark Express way is first world road! Speedy!

(clap, clap)

Interchange in Porac, for Lito Lapid!

(clap, clap)

I cut a ribbon with Dick Gordon!

(clap, clap)

Clark Airport got its approach control radar! Plenty flights! Second busiest after NAIA! We want more service centers there! Speakling of NAIA3, ceiling that fell wasn’t only problem; but NAIA is speeding up development; public safety comes first.

(clappity-clap)

Because public safety comes first, I ask Congress to create Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines.

C-5: we’re speaking to UP for new road to Commonwealth; expanding Talipapa to Malinta, to speed up access to NLEX.

(clap clap clap)

We broke ground to continue SkyWay to Alabang.

(clap, clap)

In a year, fast train from Caloocan to Alabang will serve thousands daily.

(clap)

Alabang to Sto. Tomas, SLEX being widened, will reach next year to Batangas Port.

(clap clap)

Coastal Road to Bong Revilla’s province under construction finally, after so many groundbreaking ceremonies.

(giggle, giggle)

Billion-dollar investments in ship building and Texas Instruments plants. As we build industry, we must ensure clean air. We have closed 88 firms for polluting environment.

(clap)

New Maynilad owners have invested; Manila Water also invested.

(clap)

Pork, pork, clap, clap.

$4 billion invested by Japanese firms in power plants, biggest ever.

(clap clap)

Cheaper electricity! I ask Congress to amend Epira for open access and more competition.

(loud and prolonged applause)

Cybercorridor: from Baguio to Clark to MM to Cebu, Davao. We’re among top offshoring hubs. Because we have English-proficient IT people; praises Filipino from Baguio who got award.

(clappity-clap)

IT will help BIR bring in more taxes! Monitoring real time! Will share info with LGUs!

(subdued clapping)

So no Taiwan tremor can cut off our cyber backbone, thanks to PLDT and Globe for building new links.

(clap clap)

1,000,000 jobs in Business Services by 2010! Accounting for as much income then, as OFW’s produce today!

Education! Our best inheritance! We will spend, spend! 150 billion! 29 billion more than last year! More classrooms! Every gradeschooler now has a book!

(clap, clap)

1/3 of public high schools now have internet access! Instead of building more high schools, we are awarding more scholarships so they can fill vacancies in private schools! More will benefit! More teaching positions! But we will improve training. Thank you Tessie Aquino Oreta for past laws. We are regionalizing payroll.

A raise for all government workers, effective end of this month!

(happy clapping)

TESDA! Better! Improved! More money to spend! DOLE, more money! DOST, more money! Praises Filipino named scientist of the year by Harvard Foundation. Praises students who won gold in Math competition in Korea: kids take a bow. Intel Young Scientists prize winners: kids take a bow. Etc.

(genuinely happy applause)

More proud kids take happy bows.

(happy, happy applause)

All these are happy consolations, because have spent more for human resource development than ever before, because if we do not spend for the people, it is a mockery of democracy.

Look at the chart, at how fare the poor. Money! Spending! More! For you! We’re doing it! We have drug stores selling cheap medicines! Cheaper Aspirin! Antibiotics! That’s why in a survey, almost half say they can afford medicines compared to 11% in 1999.

I want Congress to pass the cheaper medicines bill; almost enacted last year; let’s help pass it!

(bemused clapping as President mentions Mar Roxas, Biron and Teddyboy Locsin in same breath)

Let’s help Ed Angara!

(clappity clappity)

Let’s help Noli de Castro -lowest interest on housing is unprecedented!

(clap clap)

On terrorism and human rights: We fight terrorism. It fights our democracy. Therefore, we must uphold our values. It is not right to fight terror with terror. I ask Congress to pass laws:

1. Laws to protect witnesses from law breakers and law enforcers.
2. Laws to guarantee swift justice to more empowered special courts.
3. Laws to impose harsher penalties for political killings.
4. Laws reserving the harshest penalties for the rogue elements in armed forces that bring shame to those that are patriotic. (strong applause)

We must wipe the stain from our democratic record. But the first priority remains fighting hunger.

Let’s start with election reform. We look forward to the modernization of voting, counting, and canvassing.

(clap clap)

We can disagree on political goals, but never on the conduct of democratic elections. I ask Congress to fund poll watchdogs. And to enact a stronger law against election-related violence.

(rather confused-sounding clapping)

We must weed out corruption; we have thrown money at Ombudsman; 77% conviction rate! We implemented lifestyle checks, dormant for half a century.

(clap)

Bribery is down. Graft won’t be eliminated overnight, but we are making progress.

(clap?)

In conclusion, this is just a sampler of our 1.7 trillion peso medium term public investment program. How will be fund it? 1 trillion from tax reveneus; 300 billion from state corporations; the balance from everyone else, including foreign aid.

Our new confidence and momentum for progress was boosted by Asean Summit, increased assistance, security efforts.

We were able to to do all this because of great cost to me, of economic reforms. But I would rather be right than popular.

(clap! clap!)

Stronger peso slowed increase in prices of essential goods.

My wish: that we will achieve my vision by the time I step down. That reforms will be fixed and bear fruit by then; all that will be left to my successor is to gather the harvest; he or she will have an easier time of it than I did.

(clapclapclapclap)

They say campaign for next election started May 15. Fine. I stand in the way of no one’s vision. I only ask no one stands in the way of the people’s well being and progress.

(cheering, hooting, clappityclappity, woo woo!)

The time for facing-off is over; the time for facing forward, which our people deserve.

Make no mistake: I will not stand idly if anyone tries to stand in the way of the national interest and tries to block the national vision. From where I sit, I can always tell you, a president is always as strong as she wants to be.

(enthusiastic hooting; standing ovation, woo woo woo woo woo woo woo! President makes bunny-like smile)

5:03 PM God be with us. The State of the Nation is strong. Your servant, Gloria-Macapagal-Arroyo, President of the Philippines.

(clap clap, hoot, hoot)

5:05 Joint session gaveled to a close.

Read SONA running account of Inquirer.net. Government says official transcript won’t be uploaded until 10 minutes after the speech.

5:22 Commentary begins: Arroyo’s airport complex: 29 airports to open by 2010 and Arroyo unveils blueprint to propel RP into First World. Sen. Pangilinan says President’s claim of 77% conviction rate would put RP on par with Hong Kong; but says he has to look at data, because it might simply mean fewer cases are being prosecuted.

Update: Philippine Commentary recorded the whole thing. You can listen to it on line. Or read the full text of the 2007 State of the Nation Address.

Anyway, SONA coverage ends here.

Technorati Tags: House of Representatives, philippines, politics, president

Book of the week

Understanding Poverty: The Poor Talk about what it means to be Poor, Anvil Publishing.

Cat’s out of the bag

In the news, Lito Atienza new environment head: the public reaction’s been along the lines of Environmentalists shocked over Atienza appointment to DENR. The former DENR chief, Gen. Angie Reyes, not known for his environmentalism, now moves sideways to energy, on which he’s not an expert, either. Note that the portfolio Atienza was widely (and in a political sense, sensibly) assumed to be poised to assume, was that of Secretary of the Interior. Obviously, current DILG chief Ronnie Puno isn’t about to budge, despite attempts to pin the poor showing of the President’s senatorial slate on him. Puno has clearly not outlived his usefulness.

The cherades involving Reyes and Atienza is part of a bunch of cabinet appointments that resulted in Energy Secretary Lotilla either getting his wish to be replaced, or actually being fired (one press account had him reacting to a reporter’s phone call with surprise, not knowing he’d been relieved of his portfolio)

But now she’s hinted she may want to stick around: Arroyo hints at running for Congress in 2010. The cat’s out of the bag:

This is the first time that Arroyo issued a statement on her possible political plans after she steps down in 2010. She has constantly said that she wanted to shy away from politics and would focus on running the economy.

Arroyo will deliver her State of the Nation Address on Monday, her seventh since she took the presidency in 2001.

Even as she slowed down on the push for Charter change because of the May elections, Arroyo had made it clear that she has not abandoned the initiative and stressed that it would be pursued by her administration as a “platform commitment.”

Arroyo’s allies in Congress are expected to make Charter change a priority once sessions open on Monday, which will pave the way for a parliamentary system.

This is the first time she’s been bold enough to even float the idea herself since 2005. Although she has been subliminally floating the idea ever since she talked about the country reaching “First World” status by 2020.

What colleague John Nery calls Arroyo’s insurance policy. What does the President need insurance against? Obviously, ending up like Estrada after her term of office. But the argument goes, whatever her sins, if the economy improves, people will let her retire in 2010.I n the blogosphere, blog@AWBHoldings.com who points out (with a sigh),

And now, as our politicians screw up the mandates given to them, here is where we stand: we do not like Gloria Arroyo, but we cannot agree on what to do about it. Some of us would rather have her and have their stomachs full, despite the fact that some have empty stomachs. We were given all choices, we chose none of them – impeachment, people power, electing an opposition-led Congress (both houses). We wanted more of the same, we wanted comfort, we wanted progress. But at what cost? Changing our values: allowing crooks to win as long as they feed us; allowing liars to move on, as long as they feed us; allowing corrupt officials to run our coffers dry, as long as they feed us. But what if they can no longer feed us?

And the President has gambled on these things helping her, politically: her hand-picked constitutional successor is widely assumed as unfit for the job (the corollary being, while she’s alive, the President can stop worrying about her Veep; and if she dies, then what happens to the country isn’t her problem, anyway); and things like “the stock market is high,” and “the peso is strong,” and “investments are up,” combined with “the deficit’s under control”, means big business, which could finance her ouster, won’t want to rock the boat.

But as I’ve been saying even before the elections, the President’s claims to fame are getting wobbly.

1. News like Gov’t overshoots budget deficit ceiling: January-June gap balloons to P41B. See also, Deficit hits P41B on weak tax take. Still, Unfazed by P41-B deficit, Teves to meet IMF (but I thought we’d graduated from IMF tutelage? So why is an IMF team here? See: IMF visit tied to fiscal woes: Duscussions on Monetary, Fiscal Issues Are Earlier Than Usual.

2. As far as any stock market is concerned, what goes up, must come down. We can’t separate what’s going here at home with developments in the region and elsewhere. John Berthelsen says China Is not the Problem: Extraordinary popular delusions and the US stock market boom. It might be time to seek cover. A meltdown in China, etc. is out of our hands.

3. What happens if the Peso, while psychologically reassuring when strong, is too strong for the economy’s good? And how much of the Peso’s strength is our government’s doing, and not a reflection of the US Dollar’s weakness? See Dollar Near Record Low Against Euro, 26-Year Low Versus Pound and reactions, like A stronger Euro and concerns about excessive real appreciation and competitiveness loss in the Eurozone. See also Won climbs to near 2007 high; baht drops. Then see, Banker cautions gov’t vs. continued rise of peso. However, John Mangun thinks a new dynamic is at work:

In January, a barrel of light crude cost P2,500; in June, the price was P3,150. The reason we are not paying 40 percent is due to the appreciation of the peso.

The same is true for the euro. Without that 10-percent appreciation in the value of the peso against the US dollar, crude oil would now be costing us P3,500.

So what’s the point? World economic patterns change and, unfortunately, too many “experts” do not change with the environment. Previously, a weak dollar would be considered terrible for the world, and the Philippines in particular, because of US-bound exports.

But, like most of the world, we are not dependent on the US export market for our survival. The value of the peso against other currencies has actually depreciated. A weak US dollar has reduced the cost of oil we buy, yet, it also may have helped our export attractiveness to other global markets.

A weak dollar has not derailed the US economy, but might reduce its trade deficit with nations like China. Further, the strong peso-dollar rate has not slowed either dollar-based stock market investments or direct investments in the Philippines.

This is 2007. The Philippine economy is not dependent on either a strong dollar or the US consumer.

4. News like this: Asia’s First Web Casinos Lure Chinese to Philippine Farm Town, and news like this: Now, she’s also Investment Ombudsman, are related, I think:

With Gutierrez at the helm, Favila predicted that prosecuting government officials who give investors illegal headaches will be faster. “Every time I get a complaint, I will just course it directly to her.”

The reactivation of the Office of the Investment Ombudsman was among the initiatives put forward by the public-private National Competitiveness Council to address the problematic government people and processes.

This is a magic wand to make problems with mining investments, for example, go away. Or else. But there’s more. Here’s this bit of scuttlebutt, said to be fresh from within the Palace:

AFter 2010, GMA faces the likely possibility of suits as a result of her ill-governance and ill gotten wealth, if any. Thus, to delay the filing of any criminal case or ensure its denial, Merceditas Gutierrez will not be allowed to finish her term which ends in 2013.  Before GMA’s term ends, Gutierrez will be promoted to the Supreme Court and GMA will appoint another “friendly” Ombudsman who will be given a fresh term of 7 years.  Effectively therefore, GMA is shielded from suit until 2017.

In other news, Secret ballot for speakership to set bad precedent—JdV. And he’s right (though he’s not right in spooning out the gravy:  Congressmen get P1M more for travel). My column for today, Devolution of the House explains why. My Arab News column for this week is The Never-Ending Story of Scams.

2 persons wounded in Tacurong City explosion. Terrorism or extortion? Authorities can’t agree: Ermita: Tacurong blast HSA test; PNP: No, it’s extortion. But oddly enough, the military and rebels seem both inclined to dislike the Anti-Terrorism Law. See Newsbreak’s When Bitter Enemies Talk:

A militant priest says the basic problem is the newly signed anti-terror law—and he recites a litany of its flaws. A general seated at the other end breaks into laughter and declares, “See, we’re on the same side! We are also against this anti-terror law!”

All eyes now turn to the general, who has a reputation for outspokenness. Another lady justice asks: You mean the military is against this law, general? He then cites the law’s several punitive measures against law enforcers, which, he explains, won’t make them effective in the end. “We are surprised that the human rights groups are unhappy with it. Because we ourselves are unhappy with it…everybody seems unhappy with it.”

Meanwhile MILF given one week to surrender ambushers, while 2 ranking Marine officers sacked over Tipo-tipo clash. Also, CHR starts probe into Basilan incident. In his blog, Howie Severino looks into the MILF being armed with weapons and ammo from American aid given to the AFP:

We have been hearing of weapons being sold to the Abu Sayyaf ever since Father Cirilo Nacorda reported seeing boxes of American-made ammunition in his captors’ Basilan camp while he was a hostage in the mid 1990s. The details of those first forays by the Abu Sayyaf are in the excellent book by Joe Torres, Into the Mountain.

While charges of complicity are nothing new, the main difference today is the extra US influence that one presumes comes from a 1,500 percent increase in US military aid since 9/11. The Americans must realize that complicity with an Islamic terrorist/rebel group is a threat to US interests as much as it is to Philippine soldiers and civilians. The Arroyo government is regarded as an important US ally in the fight against terrorism. But if Arroyo’s military officers aid the enemy without ever getting punished, or even seriously probed, one must start to wonder if this is a true ally or simply a weak regime afraid of its own military. If it’s the latter, then Filipino generals will bow down to no one except for their American benefactors…

…The tragic episode in Tipo-Tipo reminded me of another time journalists got caught in the crossfire in Basilan, back in June 2001, at the infamous seige of Lamitan, where newly trained, supposedly elite Army Scout Rangers too were badly outgunned, before the surrounded Abu Sayyaf leadership — Janjalani, Sabaya, and Sulaiman — escaped with most of their hostages, who included the American missionary couple, Gracia and Martin Burnham.

Official probes into that debacle got nowhere, despite investigations in aid of legislation in both house of Congress that pointed to senior military officers having secret transactions with the Abu Sayyaf.

That could easily qualify as among the greatest failures in Philippine military history. Inquirer journalist John Nery did a memorable perspective piece on that incident a couple of years ago that earned him and his newspaper a libel complaint, a piece that has since disappeared from the Inquirer archives. But he has written about it and Gracia’s heroic dignity in his blog.

I cannot help but bring up the Lamitan botched seige again and again because it lies buried under the rug, along with other acts of treason.

When troops fighting and dying in the field cannot be sure of the loyalty of their own superiors, it is no surprise why an army backed by the most powerful nation on earth cannot defeat a bandit group concentrated on a few islands.

In other news, Formalin-laced White Rabbit candy banned; blogger Reyna Elena, who spent a recent trip home eating that candy, asks, “have you been embalmed yet?” Ha! RP coup plot lands ex-Cheney aide with 10 years in jail while Michael Ray Aquino gets lighter 6-year sentence. News like this is always interesting: Competitiveness menu bared, as are the views of a person I very much admire, Federico Macaranas of the AIM:  Oligarchs key to breaking into winning circle.

Overseas, freaky news indeed: Explosion rocks Manhattan, revives 9/11 memories. Even as Paddy Ashdown warns, We are failing in Afghanistan and there’s  Read It and Weep: Even Bush’s intelligence report says the war in Iraq is making us less safe at home.

Communist Vietnam now has an emerging middle class: Vietnamese people changing their consumption habits: research. On a related note, in Malaysia, Brian Yap: Middle class that’s a force to be reckoned with, while in Indonesia, this opinion piece on Western-style toilets seems full of familiar observations: Sitting up or melting down: Power to the people. My recent enthusiasm for nuclear power brings up this cautionary tale: Japanese nuclear plant may be on quake fault line.

Alex Magno says the National Democrats aren’t interested in peace, period.

Manuel Buencamino on Miguel Zubiri and his “Comelection.”

William Pesek is bothered Imelda Marcos is getting more popular.

In the blogosphere, Smoke on the give-and-take going on in this blog; Manila Bay Watch thinks Davao City Mayor Duterte is a lunatic; Philippine Politics 04 says businessmen have suddenly lost interest in fighting corruption. The Philosophical Bastard on “hermit blogging.”

Technorati Tags: Blogging, CBCP, Charter Change, constitution, human rights, ideas, military, philippines, politics, president, Senate, society, war, Washington DC

The Long View: Devolution of the House

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