It’s up to the Supremes

The train, it seems, has entered the station: Zubiri wins Maguindanao; Pimentel pins hope on SC ruling. The thing is, what did Zubiri win, exactly? Anyway, all eyes will be on the Supreme Court today, as Fight for 12th Senate seat shifts to Manila, with the Chief Justice making broad hints: Puno reiterates wish for freeze of canvass. Is he running out of time? Party-list, senatorial winners could be proclaimed June 30. Could, or will?

Meanwhile, PNP: Where’s arrest order on Bedol? Well, maybe Malacañang offers Bedol protection is related?

Revamp? What cabinet revamp? Arroyo reappoints CA’s 12 bypassed Cabinet members (see also 12 Cabinet men get new papers). While there’s this naughty story, Palace in-fighting worsens; Ronnie Puno tipped to replace Ermita, I still believe the real story is one of plain insubordination: the president made a wish, which might as well have been a command -and people didn’t obey.

JDV allies say he is GMA’s anointed, although Jose de Venecia, supposedly, followed the President around Singapore like a lonely puppy. But the President’s still being coy: Ermita: Race for House speakership just a numbers game. The word war continues among her other allies: Shut up, Palace tells Congressman Teves.
A new front? US military offers help in war vs NPA.

My column for today is It’s up to the Supremes. See also my entry yesterday.

There’s a very interesting speech titled Is the 7% Economic Growth Sustainable? by Oscar Lopez. He points out the 6.9% First Quarter growth of the country, and asks, what caused it?

The phenomenon of 6.9% GDP growth, at least during the first quarter, has been explained from the perspective of expenditures, as opposed to production, as follows: first, our economy’s growth continued to be propelled by consumption spending, which averaged 5.9% over Q1, and this was sustained to a large extent by the continued strength of overseas remittances. Second, government spending grew by 13.1%, lifted no doubt by pre-election spending like road building, etc. A third component, surprisingly, was robust 9.1% growth in exports. In contrast, investment expenditures posted negligible growth, a mere 0.6%.

Then he asks, can that level of growth be maintained?

Asking if we can sustain a higher rate of growth is asking if each of these components of expenditure can continue at the same levels. Let’s take them one at a time. Can remittances from abroad continue at the same levels and higher? Well, our overseas partners and friends like Balfour Beatty and British Gas take the view that if the current rates of growth of major world economies continue at their present levels, there will be an increasing shortage of skilled human resources of all types all over the world. You hear of the nurses and caregivers, the domestics, the seamen, the musicians, the pilots and the professionals that we supply the rest of the world, currently running at an estimated eight and a half million strong. What you do not often hear about is that Philippine companies are continually being stripped of our best engineers; our environmental, safety and health specialists; our quality control people; our maintenance mechanics, our commercial contract specialists and many other such hard-to-find-and-train skills. We simply cannot compete with the sort of salaries and benefits they are being offered in such far-flung places like Dubai and Louisiana. Yes, Louisiana. After Hurricane Katrina, Meralco lost many of its senior linemen and leadmen to the southern US utilities.

He goes on to suggest that if the world remains a peaceful place, things might be ok: but there remains a big challenge:

I believe that as long as there is no global recession, no great bubble bursting in China, or other such similar phenomena, then demand for Filipinos all over the world will continue and that their remittances to relatives remaining in the Philippines will also continue to prop up domestic consumer spending. But let me pose this question to you: can our economy afford to continue losing our skilled manpower over the longer term? Remember, we’re not educating and training them as quickly as we’re losing them. I will leave that question with you.

He also then goes on to say he doesn’t believe increased government spending is sustainable; exports can grow, but only if investors maintain their appetite for risk, which would fuel expansion; but that much more needs to be done in terms of actual investments and not merely attracting hot money. Read the whole thing.

The Inquirer editorial takes a look at the China-signed broadband deal and says it’s a steal. Palace trying to wiggle out of its own mess? Broadband network deal not yet final, says Palace.

The Lonely Vampire Chronicles presents two contrasting tales of bravura and machismo.

My Not So Secret Garden points to the inspiring story of Judge Lee of Cebu:

Judge Lee of Cebu rose to the occasion. He was in a ship that was sinking. He organized the distribution of the life jackets. When all available life jackets were distributed, there were still people in line. He took of his life jacket and gave it away. A few days later when search and rescue operation was underway, his body was found floating in the sea. What he did was heroic. He choose to rise to the occasion.

Technorati Tags: elections, philippines, politics, president, Senate, Washington DC

Railroading!

Says the Comelec spokesman, Maguindanao canvass ends in 4 days. But that’s his own opinion, and he could be wrong. How wrong? Oh, maybe wrong enough so that despite the Supreme Court scheduling a hearing, where the camps of Zubiri and Pimentel can argue why the high court should -or shouldn’t- intervene by means of a TRO, the Comelec can end up making the efforts of the court “moot and academic.”

How?

Republic Act 7166 says (and it can also be found here):

Section 15. Pre-proclamation Cases Not Allowed in Elections for President Vice-President, Senator, and Member of the House of Representatives. – For purposes of the elections for President, Vice-President, Senator and Member of the House of Representatives, no pre-proclamation cases shall be allowed on matters relating to the preparation, transmission, receipt, custody and appreciation of the election returns or the certificates of canvass, as the case may be. However, this does not preclude the authority of the appropriate canvassing body motu propio or upon written complaint of an interested person to correct manifest errors in the certificate of canvass or election returns before it.

Questions affecting the composition or proceedings of the board of canvassers may be initiated in the board or directly with the Commission in accordance with Section 19 hereof.

Any objection on the election returns before the city or municipal board of canvassers, or on the municipal certificates of canvass before the provincial board of canvassers or district boards of canvassers in Metro Manila Area, shall be specifically noticed in the minutes of their respective proceedings.

The section (19) referred to by the above section (15) is as follows:

Section 19. Consented Composition or Proceedings of the Board: Period to Appeal: Decision by the Commission. – Parties adversely affected by a ruling of the board of canvassers on questions affecting the composition or proceedings of the board may appeal the matter to the Commission within three (3) days from a ruling thereon. The Commission shall summarily decided the case within five (5) days from the filing thereof.

Which means, a candidate who questions the election results in a province, can question those results and the documents on which results are based, at two levels: the provincial board of canvassers, and the national board of canvassers, within certain limits.

But the Supreme Court, at this point, can only intervene so long as no final proclamation has been made by the Comelec; once the Comelec proclaims a senator -and only one proclamation is left, that for No. 12- then the body authorized to tackle any complaints is the Senate Electoral Tribunal. Therefore, the window of opportunity for Supreme Court intervention is before the Comelec, acting as the National Board of Canvassers, makes its proclamation.

What, in turn, will decide whether or not the National Board of Canvassers makes a proclamation? You would think, why, the Provincial Board of Canvassers. Except, that provincial board is out of the picture. Instead, a Special Board of Canvassers has been put in place, and it’s the special board that’s adding up the figures.

What figures? The votes for senator in Maguindanao. Votes based on what? The other set of Municipal Certificates of Canvass that the Comelec found -and which had to be looked for, gathered together, and resorted to, because the incredible Bedol had all the election documents that should have been the basis for the official figures. The stolen documents included the provincial canvass results, and the municipal canvass results -and the copies of these figures, that should have gone to interested parties, including the dominant opposition and administration parties, and electoral watchdog groups.

But the Comelec claims that, thank God, duplicates were found for municipal results, and while it’s sad the official provincial results remain missing, the results can be reconstituted based on the found documents -even though the political parties and watchdogs never got their copies, and so have no basis for proving, or disproving, the numbers that the special board’s counting in Maguindanao.

The special boarding doing the adding up in Maguindanao, has, in turn, responded to questions and objections raised by Koko Pimentel’s lawyers by saying the special board is only tasked -and only authorized- to look at the documents, add up the figures on them, and report the results to the National Board of Canvassers. The lawyers from both sides are free to watch, but any noises they make will have to be repeated in Manila. And if they don’t like it, tough.

But you might ask, so what? Seems fine. Let the lawyers make noise in Manila, let’s all get this over and done with in Maguindanao.

Except here’s the catch: this assumes the National Board of Canvassers is under an obligation to then stop, listen to, and attend to, one by one, any objections that might have been set aside in Maguindanao, and which Maguindanao said are properly Manila’s to attend to.

Not so. Manila’s ultimate concern is that it has a deadline: June 30, when the terms of the new senators begin. The Comelec can argue that it has an obligation to fill all the vacancies in the Senate, and that therefore it must proclaim the 12th senator-elect. And since it has a deadline to meet, while technically it can go over objections and requests for clarification, one by one, concerning the Mindanao votes and the documents on which they’re based, including the report on the Maguindanao results submitted by its special board of canvassers, it doesn’t have to do this. Not when it’s pressed for time.

Instead, it can do this: receive the report from the Maguindanao special board of canvassers. Order that the figures in the report be added to the national total. Declare that the national figures are complete; and, based on the completed national figures, proclaim the 12th senator-elect. Guess who that will be?

And in doing so, it can declare that the deadline was met; it acted on the basis of a document, the Maguindanao report of the special board of canvassers, which it resumed to be regular; argue, further, that it didn’t decide on any questions of authenticity, etc., but merely acted in good faith; and by so doing, it avoided passing judgement on the the actions of the Maguindanao special board, and itself avoided having to resolve any of the objections or clarify anything the lawyers raised in Maguindanao -and never had a chance to bring up again in Manila, because Manila acted on what Maguindanao submitted.

By making its proclamation, the Comelec not only washed its hands of the matter, it deprived the Supreme Court of any chance to intervene; and it proclaimed a senator and left it up to his main opponent to fight it out in the Senate electoral tribunal where for all we know, justice might be served, on June 29, 2013.

Perhaps now it makes more sense why Koko asks Court to stop Maguindanao canvass Comelec, Zubiri directed to file comments. In failing to act the other day, the Supreme Court risks compounding the problem: SC halt-count wish is no command: Abalos. As Patricio Diaz puts it, Abalos could have been less defiant:

By deferring to the Court, the Commission can erase all suspicions about its intentions.

But by all indication, the Commission is not deferring to the Court. The re-canvass of the municipal CoCs is already in progress. By its summary procedure, it may be finished before the Court could hear all sides and decide.

Two things can happen after the Court has heard all parties today. It may restrain the canvassing and hear the case on merits or dismiss the case outright. If the first, it may be too late to restrain the provincial re-canvassing; but there may be time to stop the national canvassing – unless the Commission will be able to outrace the Court.

Should the Court be able to restrain the national canvassing, neither Pimentel nor Zubiri could join the eleven earlier proclaimed. It will take a little more time for the Court to hear the case on merits.

Whether Pimentel or Zubiri eventually wins, the Court will extricate the Commission from some consequences of its mixed signals.

But it appears that, like Bedol daring the Commission to sue him, the Commission is resolved to finish the national canvass this week in time for the installation of the winning twelfth candidate – who is most likely to be Zubiri – on Saturday.

And as for the incredible Bedol, he roams freely despite Comelec’s arrest order but well, he’ll show up before the Comelec -in his own good time. It seems to me that  when Namfrel calls May 14 elections ‘90% credible’, and its people submit a scathing report on the Lanao del Sur vote, it reminds us all the more why the incredible 10% deserve the harshest scrutiny.

Palace hands-off on broadband deal. Finance Sec. Teves says he’s not quitting, and he’ll go only if the President fires him. Meanwhile, Palace seeks truce on Commission on Appointments’ row (getting more and more unseemly: ‘2 ex-DepEd chiefs hit for cash, favors by CA members’ ). Overlooked at the time, but better late than never: A Nagueno in the Blogosphere undertakes a fascinating examination of the political ups and downs of Rep. Luis Villafuerte (see also his thoughts on the ongoing controversy over a proposed resort development in Tagaytay).

Here’s food for thought: Lacson: No revenge against Arroyo.

My Arab News column for this week is Philippine Economy: A Cautionary Tale.

Manuel Buencamino observes many of the goings-on involving the government are very convenient, wink wink.

The Inquirer editorial says up-to-now-nameless generals must step forward and put a face to their allegations.

The Business Mirror editorial says we must consider the option of nuclear power -and that the Bataan Nuclear Plant might just indeed, be viable after all.

In the blogosphere, New Economist asks if the tide of opinion has turned -against globalization. Blackshama says, on the other hand, that UP proves Karl Marx right -the state is withering away, as proven by the privatization of public education.

Torn and Frayed takes note of our gun-loving political culture. Edwin Lacierda on the constitutional questions that will have to be resolved sooner or later. Manuel Viloria points to an inspiring speech; while To the Tale, and Other Such Concerns reflects on cause and effect.  Fats, Vitamins, and Minerals recounts an enjoyable visit to a park.

Technorati Tags: Blogging, elections, philippines, politics, president, Senate

Arab News Newspaper: Philippine Economy: A Cautionary Tale

Philippine Economy: A Cautionary Tale Manuel L. Quezon III

Â

On June 22, William Pesek wrote in Bloomberg, that President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo seems frustrated with the skepticism expressed by foreign groups over her ability to keep control over the fiscal situation of the Philippine government. The skepticism began with Standard & Poor’s postelection announcement that inefficient tax collection was resulting in government being unable to meet its income goals. On June 14, Moody’s Investors Services said something similar. Fitch Ratings chimed in, last week, saying the same thing: Weak tax revenues would push the deficit up. And Monday, JP Morgan also said the Philippines was expected to be unable to meet its deficit goals.  Pesek said there’s a simple enough reason why skepticism tends to greet Philippine government actions, even if the same observers go through periods of praising government efforts. “Unfair as that may sound, investors have a funny way of remembering when a government defaults on debt, as the Philippines did two decades ago,” he wrote. It’s useful, I think, to revisit the period Pesek referred to. President Ferdinand E. Marcos had plied businessmen with pro-business decrees, and while the economy hummed along no one complained. But when the economy, which had grown by an average of over 6 percent in the first seven years of martial law, began to falter (down to 5.4 percent growth in 1980, 3 in 1981, and 2.6 the year after), businessmen worried about an economy and a country so firmly tied up with Marcos and his friends. It also became evident at this time that Marcos’ preferential policies toward his friends or dummies had started to take a significant toll on the economy. Businessmen, who just winked at these peccadilloes, now worried that as these bogus, publicly-financed enterprises sank under the weight of mismanagement and plunder, they would take the rest of the economy with them. Bankruptcies increased, as did unemployment, and some foreign investors pulled out their investments ($100 million worth of equity capital was taken out in 1980). The Makati Business Club, composed of the Philippines’ top 1000 corporations, was organized and shortly after issued a plenary paper titled “Issues and Prescriptions.” It called for “an environment of honesty, integrity, peace, and greater confidence in the government; a curb to military abuse and government corruption; a stop to red tape, graft, corruption and cronyism; the definition and pullout of government roles from private sector concerns and business; the removal of lopsided competition from government; and the protection of media in its crusade against injustice and the curtailment of human freedom.” These were uncharacteristically strong words that stuck; the operative words “corruption,” “cronyism,” and “abuse” became battle cries of those social classes who stir when their pockets rather than hearts are touched. In 1982 the businessmen had summoned up the nerve to present their complaints during the Eighth Philippine Business Conference in 1982. They invited Marcos to be their guest speaker, and were rewarded with a bravura performance by the president, who thundered, “This government will, and has the capability to protect itself. The country is presently reeling from worldwide recession and export price slump… but let me warn those who opt to provide further misery to our people: Tax evasions and frauds in remittances of export earnings will be seriously dealt with the full force of the law. These people are known to me and I have a list of companies right here with me.” The businessmen blanched. They wanted reform, he would reform them. They had invited him with all the elegant formalities at which they are so good, and he had treated them such as no rabble-rousing labor leader would have dared. Even as businessmen like Joe Concepcion still fretted about “the danger of punitive action of some kind” as a result of their mild criticism of Marcos, the notion grew that only without Marcos did the country have a chance. The revulsion among businessmen grew when their stand-ins in the Marcos government were marginalized, as quickly as they had been brought in. Together with Gerardo Sicat, Roberto Ongpin, and Placido Mapa, Cesar Virata was the complete technocrat — reputedly honest, certainly proficient in his field. His presence had deodorized the profligate dictatorship with its creditors abroad. Marcos even made him a member of the 14-man Executive Committee tasked with governing the country in case he died, whose ranks took years to fill. In the event of Marcos’ death, Virata was therefore in the running to succeed him. Raised to these lofty heights, the business community was supposed to feel that their own kind were in positions of responsibility and respect in the Marcos regime. In 1982 Virata asked that the Central Bank stop discounting loans for sugar planters, who had been hard-hit by the collapse of the sugar industry. The planters grumbled that it was all close Marcos friend Benedicto’s fault, since he was the head of the sugar monopoly. Virata’s action raised the hackles of the cronies; Marcos allowed them to strike back in 1983. In April of that year a KBL caucus was held in Malacanang in preparation for a review of the country’s fiscal performance by its creditor banks. A scene reminiscent of China’s Cultural Revolution took place. After all, Imelda Marcos was an admirer of Chairman Mao. Leader after leader stood up to shout at Prime Minister Virata and Central Bank Gov. Jaime Laya, accusing them of incompetence, stupidity and cowardice in the face of creditor banks and the IMF. Then Marcos stepped in and chided Virata to “to defend himself.” He had humiliated the chief technocrat and demonstrated that everyone’s position depended purely on his goodwill. Virata offered to resign. Marcos told him to take a rest abroad instead. Thus, these great brown hopes of reform were exposed as toothless fools, essential in making the government look good but powerless to make it so. When Marcos revealed that he had left confidential orders to Gen. Fabian Ver, his chief of security, in the event of his death, everyone realized Marcos respected and trusted only his bodyguards. Anyone following the recent infighting in the Arroyo Cabinet will know that history seems too close to present-day reality.     Â

Â

Railroading begins?

Tabulation of Maguindanao votes starts and the account, as published, bears thinking about in terms of Christian Monsod’s observations about the process (see yesterday’s entry):

Throughout the day, De Lima railed at the continued refusal of Santos to allow her and Brillantes to question the municipal board chairmen. “Why your honor, can we not ask questions?” De Lima asked, stressing each word.

At one point, De Lima said: “This is all part of railroading of the proceedings.”

Santos said the opposition can bring all their motions and objections before the National Board of Canvassers. Earlier in the day, he opened the canvassing by saying: “We are here to uncover the truth.”

But he said that since his was only a “special board, the rules of an ordinary provincial board of canvassers” did not apply.

Throughout the day’s exchange, TEAM Unity counsel George Garcia agreed with the rulings of Santos.

The opposition lawyers are asking partisan (obviously) but sensible questions. A blogger who says she hates politics, Lucid Unreality, had this to say:

Abalos is right, an election took place in Maguindanao because of the “proof” accompanying the certificates of canvas. No one’s questioning that. The integrity of those certificates is what I’m worried about. How sure are we that it wasn’t tampered with? It’s that simple. And for someone who hates politics and wants nothing of it, I’m pretty darn affected by such a simple fact really.

And the Supreme Court seems to be hinting it would prefer no proclamation at this time: SC defers decision on Maguindanao canvassing:

Although no temporary restraining order (TRO) was issued, Supreme Court spokesman Jose Midas Marquez said the high court is hoping the COMELEC will defer any action that will render Pimentel’s petition moot.

If canvassing pushes through and the 12th senator is proclaimed, Marquez said legal remedies are available to revert the ruling of the COMELEC.

Meanwhile, a fire-breathing Chairman: Abalos on critics: They can jump to hell. See an OFW Living in Hong Kong for his views on the Comelec Chairman’s “courage”. Another fire-breathing official: PNP mulls probe, gun raps vs defiant, pistol-packing Bedol.

Another PR problem: Philippines likely to exceed 2007 deficit goal – JP Morgan. If the cornerstone of this administration’s PR is that it has the deficit -and thus, the economy- firmly in hand, what does it say if the foreign observers that once sang its praises, say that government’s fiscal grip is slipping?

Meanwhile, it was announced that Finance seeks toll fee tax but today, it’s  Executives debate VAT on toll. Which is it? The Business Mirror editorial says government’s trying to find creative ways to further squeeze the public:

Here’s the rub: toll-way operators currently don’t pay VAT since, they say, the old law doesn’t specifically tell them to do so. So counterintuitively, Malacañang spin masters thought that if the law doesn’t say so, it could also mean the government is not prevented by the law from collecting VAT from the toll ways.

It’s a kind of creative and funny logic. We’d like to laugh but we can’t because of its possible negative implications. The government hopes to collect at least a billion pesos but it’s not certain how much it would cost ordinary Filipinos. It’s certain that toll operators would pass the extra cost to consumers by raising fares.

Economically, that would mean higher transport costs to vehicle owners and operators, which could cascade in terms of higher bus and FX fares for commuters; higher prices of fruits, vegetables, fish, meat and cereals as viajeros are likely to pass on the cost to consumers; higher cost of business to entrepreneurs big and small on top of the already high transactions cost (read: expensive electricity, high port users’ charges and high cost of long-distance calls) that they currently bear; and which could ultimately spell economic difficulties to wage earners.

But the real question is, why isn’t government focusing on governance?

In hindsight, the real issue here is probably not all about taxes but governance—or the lack of it. If we take it from, Sen. Ralph Recto, tolls are “VAT-able” and have always been covered by the original VAT law. What motorists are paying right now is already VAT-inclusive—supposedly.

That means we have always been paying VAT at the toll and there’s no need to raise toll rates. If his presumption is right, the question now is “where’s the money?” Does it mean the toll operators like PNCC were collecting VAT money and pretending it’s their money?

Now you can imprison your critics and steal elections, and businessmen won’t mind, but mention taxes and businessmen suddenly become rebellious. And so, the President has to pour oil on troubled waters:  Arroyo assures no new taxes on telcos.

Not just the fiscal grip’s loosening: the grip on the patronage position holders has slipped, too. The insubordination continues. 77 GOCC execs tender resignations:

The 23 GOCCs account for only one-fifth of the 117 government corporations, including government financial institutions (GFIs), whose heads were asked to tender their courtesy resignations last June 9.

In other economics news, some good news:  Government saves P14.6B on interest payments in first 5 months. But Bangko Sentral isn’t happy with the strength of the Peso: Smaller BOP surplus eyed to curb Peso rise.
President will insist on her prerogative to pick and choose which senate summons her officials will heed. Also, AFP warns generals linking military to summary executions. The executive-military resistance to being taken to task for human rights violations faces a formidable adversary: the Supreme Court. There’s an explanation of why this is so, in Newsbreak, Atty. Teddy Te points out presidential prerogatives may end up severely circumscribed by the Supreme Court, which is poised to exercise some formidable, though little known, powers. See also, SC Takes New Role in National Debate.
Original copies of RP-china MOAs stolen, not lost — NBI The plot thickens?

And this is nice: Al Gore lauds Bacolod NGO for climate change solution.

Overseas, a highly relevant opinion piece on Why Indonesia needs a new social policy?

The question is: Why is Indonesia so far behind its neighboring countries? And why it is the slowest Asian country to recover from a financial crisis?

Government policies show there are two approaches to the problem: Focussing on economic growth and maintaining macro stability through tight fiscal policy — and developing partial ad-hoc social policy to tackle poverty through a social safety net program.

In the first approach the economic policy concentrates on how the economy could grow with very little cost. It concentrates on how government spending could become efficient by reducing subsidies and fostering privatization.

But the poverty reduction program including the social safety net deals with the problem of poverty in an ad-hoc manner.

In short, there is a disconnect between economic policy and social policy.

See also Free Trade End Game in Seoul, and Taiwan’s Politics are Growing Up. And What fish markets tell us about the economy.

Michael Bloomberg is the money candidate and the press loves him for it. Great opening lines:

Michael Bloomberg, who was never really a Republican, became one because it was the easiest way for him to become mayor of New York.

Now Bloomberg has become an independent, because it is the easiest way for him to become president of the United States.

In politics, this is what we call principle.

History Unfolding says President Bush is a kind of decorative monarch, and that his sinister prime minister is Vice President Dick Cheney:

…the Bush Administration has led us to disaster essentially by gutting, and ignoring, the whole federal structure as it has evolved, literally, since the beginning of the Republic. Not only the bureaucracy–that Republican bogeyman for 65 years–but also the Cabinet, including loyalists like John Ashcroft as well as moderates like Colin Powell–have been completely bypassed by Cheney’s office. National Security Advisor Rice, as has been known for some time, lost her autonomy to Cheney during Bush’s first term (and is now in renewed battles with him as Secretary of State over Guantanamo and, very likely, Iran.)…
…
President Bush for the last six years has focused on “staying on message.” It is beginning to look, really and truly, as though that is all he does. Like a British monarch giving a series of King’s speeches, he is the public face of the Administration’s policy but he is neither designing it or directing it except in the most general (and never-varying) terms. And indeed, some of his own most deeply held beliefs–such as the need to promote democracy–have not really been reflected in policy because the Vice President does not share them.

and check this out: Facebook v MySpace – a class divide:

Ms Boyd also conjectures that the US military’s recent decision to ban personnel from using sites including MySpace is evidence of social fissures in the armed forces. “A month ago, the military banned MySpace but not Facebook. This was a very interesting move because there’s a division, even in the military. Soldiers are on MySpace; officers are on Facebook.”

In the punditocracy, Julis Fortuna says de Venecia’s reelection as Speaker is a sure thing. Jose Ma. Montelibano is all praises for Gawad Kalinga; they deserve praise, indeed, but I continue to think their great crisis will come, when they realize, though they refuse to see it now, that they will need to be politically involved sooner, rather than later. Heroism is slipping, to my mind, too freely and easily from their tongues; it requires sacrifice and confrontation. And by the way, mass housing provides tax perks, besides big business: Number of firms availing of tax perks rises: Mass housing sector a booming business.

Generation gap: a letter to the editor from a grandmother complains of Immature politics, disrespectful solons. For for the younger generation’s views, see The Purple Phoenix Talks about Philippine Politics

In the blogosphere, blog@AWBHoldings does a little sleuthing concerning accusations that congressmen were trying to extort bribes to approve presidential appointments. This is a bad season for congressmen: Anti-smuggling chief says congressmen pressuring him to release smuggled goods.

Patsada Karajaw dissects various political doctrines that have been proposed as a result of the May elections.

Philippine Commentary further dissects the Anti-Terrorism law.

My Inquirer Current entry would have benefited from reading the views and questions of Reyna Elena regarding Koreans in the Philippines:

But as hundreds of us pile up at POEA, line up the intenet cafe to browse for jobs overseas, fly out daily to places as far as Azerbajian and Honduras where we think we can find our Philippine Dream (*saglit lang. me Philippine Dream ba?), – ANYWAY – check out who are the people flying to Manila in droves!!! It’s the Koreans and the Chinese!!! And look! They are coming to our dear kawntri for the very same reasons why we are all leaving the Philippines?!

In La Vida Lawyer, there’s an utterly fascinating letter penned by Marcelo H. del Pilar about the social and political dynamics of Filipinos in Spain. It reads like it could have been written about any Filipino organization, anywhere, and the leadership fights that inevitably occur.

Technorati Tags: Blogging, elections, history, journalism, korea, media, military, philippines, politics, president, Senate

A drawn-out process

As the headlines continue to focus on the tit-for-tat regarding Maguindanao (such as: ‘ERs’ disprove Maguindanao zero votes for GO bets, and Migz: I can take defeat, but how about Koko?, see also Adel Tamano’s column, as well as blogger Patsada Karajaw who takes a dim view of Zubiri, and A Simple Life, who takes a dim view of Koko), I thought I should ask someone knowledgeable about election controversies for his opinion. So yesterday, I spoke to Christian Monsod and he said, we should bear some things in mind:

1. There is always the possibility that there were acceptable elections, on the local level, but unacceptable elections on the national level; one shouldn’t assume that it’s a case of local elections prove national elections, or vice-versa.

2. The various election watchdog groups have spoken up, time and again, that the senatorial elections were tainted. One reason is the claim by Team Unity, that it achieved a 12-0 sweep. On what basis was the claim made, and why has TU never produced documents to back up its claim? Ultimately, the real choices are between setting aside the results of the senatorial vote in Maguindanao, or holding a fresh election but under very strict scrutiny, and under certain conditions.

3. The Comelec, in its fact-finding mission, pointed to the documents posted in various precincts. But they seem to be rather immaculate, considering these are documents supposedly tacked, stapled, taped, to blackboards. So while the documents that were “found” seem to comply with form and substance, are they genuine?

4. There is a two-step process involved before the Comelec can even consider proclaiming the 12th senator. First, there’s the canvassing before the Provincial Board of Canvassers in Maguindanao. Then there’s the canvassing at the National Board of Canvassers in Manila. Each step of the way, lawyers are involved, and if railroading is attempted, it will only strengthen any appeal to the Supreme Court.

5. He expects the process to still be a long one, and messy: and one consideration is, can the government afford a messy process still taking place, as the President delivers her state of the nation address?

Please read this entry by Morofilm (who is from Maguindanao) on the Maguindanao mess. He writes,

It’s already a big burden on our backs to prove to the world that being Moro is not synonymous to Abu Sayyaf or Al Qaeda. For those who live in Maguindanao, proving that we are not a fraudulent people is a new battle. Or is it?

But you say these are all allegations. They have their precedents. I don’t recall which year it was, but my cousin Phillip and his best friend Junie conducted a political experiment. I was an accomplice since I was not yet of legal age. For senators, they wrote the names of Elsa Payumo, Nora Daza and Elaine Cuneta in their ballots. During counting, they expected the votes would be counted. The three ladies received zero in that precinct.

A few years later, I became party to electoral fraud myself, sort of. I was delivering boxes of juice to a precinct in one of the towns in Maguindanao. An elder cousin, who was a councilor of the town, called me and asked me if I had the time to fill up ballots –ballots that were two inches thick. Before I could react, he gave me a pencil and directed me to a chair inside the precinct. On my third ballot, the lead broke and I made it a convenient excuse to dash out of the place.

And they say electoral fraud in Maguindanao is a figment of the loser’s hyperactive imagination.

He goes on to say,

Hold the chainsaw. I am not yet finished. There has been electoral fraud in Maguindanao for as long as I can remember. Or since I was old enough to vote. Electoral fraud is a non-issue if a leader of a town or a province holds enough influence to be unchallenged in the polls. That gives him the rein to direct the contents of the certificates of canvass or CoCs. Because of his influence, he can even decide who to put in the municipal council or provincial board, usually political allies and family members. Choices for senator depend on party affiliations, and, as Senator Panfilo Lacson puts it, the capability of a candidate to buy votes, regardless of party affiliation. One just needs to show the money.

Election fraud only becomes an issue if two parties are fiercely vying for the posts. There would be finger pointing, who cheated who, and lawyers would take turn crediting and discreting the CoCs, showing off their oratorical prowess to convince the Comelec that their clients rightfully got the mandate of the people.

So why not check the Certificates of Canvass (CoC’s)?

The CoCs are not the most reliable documents to check if one cries electoral fraud. They can be easily fabricated. Hello Gracia, they can even be prepared a day before the elections. The Comelec can waste money and time looking for the Maguindanao CoCs, which were reportedly lost according to the provincial election officer Lintang Bedol, but it won’t prove a thing.

Those who are crying fraud should instead check individual ballots. But that’s not going to be easy since the Comelec could always deny this motion. But lawyers would know what to do. Ballots are the best evidence of electoral fraud. More often than not, they have been filled up by the same person, usually with a ratio of 10:1, either in the polling precincts on election day or a secret location the night before. This would pose another problem. You have to be a handwriting expert to spot the scam. If you are not, hire one. Which brings me to an issue in the Lanao special polls in which experts from the National Bureau of Investigation were brought in to authenticate signatures but were dismissed by the Comelec for heaven knows what. While you are at it, hire a fingerprint expert as well because the same person will put his fingerprints in all boxes that require them.

Witnesses would be helpful in establishing electoral fraud but most of them are scared out of their wits to even say a single word. Unless one wishes to be a cold corpse. Whatever happened to the teacher who verified massive fraud in a TV news program? The one who was even present at a rally protesting accusations that teachers were part of the fraud?

But in the end,

The Comelec en banc has not counted the Maguindanao votes for senators yet. A special elections is far fetched. Koko Pimentel’s petition in the Supreme Court has a fifty-fifty chance of being granted. Should the Comelec en banc choose to count the Maguindanao CoC, it can mean that electoral fraud can and will prevail not only in the province but in our country’s electoral experience.

Unless the people say enough is enough.

Philippine Commentary says one thing to consider, is that whoever ends up the 12th senator will determine who becomes senate president. He quotes a source and its fearless forecast:

The thought that the Warlords of Sharif Aguak and dastardly bastards like Lintang Bedol have their filthy hands on the nation’s fate leaves me weak. My source fearlessly predicts the following scenario:

(1) The Supreme Court will throw out Koko Pimentel’s ill-advised petition for being “premature” and in the nature of “pre-proclamation controversy” over which the Comelec has “exclusive jurisdiction” (according to the Omnibus Election Code).

(2) Weakened by such a setback, the Comelec will brazenly proclaim Migs Zubiri the twelfth winning senator and let Koko file an election protest.

Based on what is known, Koko will probably win that protest…eventually…and serve one day in the Senate sometime in 2013.

A rare agreement: Palace, Left welcome summit on slays.

Overseas, a weird story: Spain hit by plague of blood-sucking black flies. And see: Estonia has no paper laws any more.

News like RP unlikely to hit 2007 fiscal goal – Fitch led to my column for today, which is Unable to pass the buck.

Check out the column of William Pesek in Bloomberg which enumerates the reasons for some skepticism on the part of investors concerning our government, but the reasons others are salivating, too. Then check out the Business Mirror editorial, which urges the government to take a more focused approach to tax collection. the editorial also points out, government will be hard-pressed, indeed, not to raise taxes, somehow. One way? See this: Toll ways VAT to yield P1B. This, even as Japanese firms press P7-B VAT claims.

A related article: DOF reveals data that broke fiscal back on Buñag’s fate. On the question of “window-dressing,” see Philippine Politics 04, and on the topic of economic growth figures, there’s an interesting look at them over at Placeholder: he wonders why, after government ends up adjusting reported figures, government spokesmen don’t revise the figures they quote, too.

Yesterday, the Inquirer editorial, echoing an observation by the International Federation of Journalists, renewed the paper’s call to decriminalize libel. The editorial made reference to this essay by a professor in Georgia State University:

Read this summary, as well, of Libel laws in the Philippines.

In response to the editorial, Phoenix’ Eyrie strongly objected, saying that media is too enamored of its freedoms and unwilling to face up to its responsibilities; libel is the ultimate defense of a helpless public. Lagalag also reproduces an open letter than takes media to task for keeping people ignorant and politically superficial.

In Inquirer Current, my entry yesterday focuses on Korea, and what one British author says is a crisis their society is undergoing.

Asian Energy Advisors says a life-and-death struggle, over the future of the National Electrification Administration, may be going on. The bone of contention is yet another Executive Order.

failing to plan is planning to fail, on the dynamics and relationship between the state, the private sector, and civil society And the blogger asks some probing questions:

I understand that business is a profit-oriented undertaking. There are so many risks involved. For me, it seems only fair that those who take chances should be rewarded, provided that profit is not gained at the expense of other people. The businesses must also ensure that their profit goes back to the State in some other way. The money should circulate INSIDE the country and not siphoned out. In that case, the rich only gets richer, and the poor is being sucked dry.

Take for example the case of big shopping malls like Henry Sy’s SM. We all lionize (to use Prof. Serote’s term) Henry Sy because of his “contribution” to our country’s economy. Contribute how? Having the third biggest mall in the world does not necessarily translate to prosperity. Filipinos spend the hard-earned money of their OFW relatives on buying stuff that are made outside the country. We are contributing to the economy of that country, not ours. Most of the money that we pay to SM and deposit in its bank (Banco de Oro- EPCI) is invested by Mr. Sy in China, not in the Philippines (Prof. Serote read in a PAL in-flight magazine that the taipans have a contest among themselves on who invests the heaviest in China). We are enriching China, while draining our own pockets and only so little goes back.

And what of the dollar remittances of OFWs? These are being used to pay off our international debts.

mysteries of life on the need for personal change to accomplish political change.

Technorati Tags: Blogging, elections, ideas, internet, korea, media, philippines, politics, president, Senate, society

The Long View: Lost

THE LONG VIEW
Lost
By Manuel L. Quezon III

In the province of Papa-oom-maw-maw, a demonstration of the New Mathâ„¢ (and other adventures in learning).

“This meeting will come to order. Commissioner Dagdag?”

“Present!”

“Commissioner Bawas?”

“Ready for duty, Chairman Ayos!”

“Commissioner Gapang?”

“Here, ready and willing!”

“Very good. So, we are all present and accounting for.”

“Excuse me, Chairman Ayos…”

“What is it, Commissioner Dagdag?”

“You mean, ‘present and accounted for,’ because ‘accounting for’ might be, you know, heh-heh…”

“Ah. Hee hee. True. Very well. Gentlemen, we are here to conduct a special investigation to find out what happened to the numbers in the province of Papa-oom-maw-maw. We cannot declaim, I mean retain, I mean sustain, I mean—”

“Sir, victory for Zooberry!”

 

“Yes. Which requires numbers. Commissioners Dagdag and Bawas, can you tell us why we have no numbers?”

“Actually, sir, numbers were produced, it’s just that witnesses came forward to say the numbers were invented.”

“Invented? How?”

“Secret!”

“Oh, of course. But so, what happened with the witnesses?”

“Sir, do you see any witnesses? Anywhere?”

“I guess not. But — oh! Hee hee. So what’s the problem?”

“Chairman, you said we should declare a failure of counting here in Papa-oom-maw-maw, but then it turned out the numbers were OK.”

“They are?”

“Except, we have a problem. You see, the numbers — they’re sort of missing.”

“Missing? But I thought it was the witnesses who — ”

“Never mind them, sir, it’s the numbers. They’re … lost!”

“Where were they last seen?”

“In Mr. Betel’s office. But Betel has kind of gone … nuts.”

“Betel? Nuts? Explain!”

“Well, perhaps, Mr. Chairman, we should ask him?”

“Very well. Call in Mr. Betel.”

“Hi po.”

“Mr. Betel, do you swear that the testimony you are about to give is the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth?”

“Maybe po.”

“Good enough. So, tell us, where are the numbers?”

“Lost po.”

“Lost? How?”

“Actually, stolen po.”

“Stolen? How?”

“Well, really, eaten po.”

“Eaten?”

“Kasi po, my dog ate the numbers and then someone stole my dog. It’s true po.”

“Oh. How terrible. And where’s your dog?”

“Missing na nga, po.”

“Ah. And, uh, what is that beside you?”

“Oh? That? My cat, po.”

“Why is it barking?”

“I don’t know po.”

“Ah. Curious. Thank you for your testimony.”

“Bye, po.”

“Well gentlemen, it seems the numbers (or the dog, or both) were eaten! What do we do?”

“Chairman Ayos, I move that we find substitute numbers.”

“Commissioner Bawas moves that we look for new numbers. Produce the new numbers!”

“Sir, we have to find the new numbers first.”

“Oh. Is that difficult?”

“Not really, Sir. Let us apply the Advanced New Math™.”

“I like that! Tell me how we can do that, Commissioner Gapang.”

“Well, sir, we have two sets of relevant numbers. The Zooberry numbers, and the Pimple numbers. Applying the Theory of Glorious Relativity, we know that where A=Zooberry and B=Pimple and C=Population, then A=C-B squared, where A is always 12 times C.”

“Huh?”

“That’s why it’s advanced New Math™, Chairman. Leave it to Commissioners Dagdag and Bawas to compute.”

“No, no, I’m a pro. Hmmm. We know there are 3,000,000 people in Papa-oom-maw-maw, then we already know Zooberry, I mean, A, equals 36,000,000 numbers!”

“Well, no sir, that’s too extreme. A equals 3,000,000 minus 5 squared, or 25 (that’s the number for Pimple, or B), where A, or Zooberry, always equals 12 times 3,000,000 or C. So, 36 million.”

“That’s what I said!”

“But, sir, you see, it’s the process that matters.”

“Ah! Of course! We must always uphold the numbers process!”

“Exactly, Chairman Ayos. So now that we know the results, we can work backwards and rediscover the numbers!”

“And that is why we’re here, yes?”

“Yes, sir. Oh, by the way, sir, what’s that under your chair?”

“Where? Here? Oh! Look! Numbers!”

(Chorus) “Wow! Plenty of numbers!”

“My God, amazing! Let me see… 1… 2… 7… 11… 36… 954… 10 million… 20 million… 29 million and a half… why, 36 million numbers! Imagine that! All for… Zooberry!”

(Chorus) “A miracle!”

“No! It’s the triumph of New Math™!”

(Chorus) “Amen!”

No surprises

Delayed entry today because I’ve started teaching Journalism 105 (Opinion and Editorial Writing) at Letran. So my next 17 Fridays will be eaten up.

The Comelec (surprise, surprise!) proclaims Maguindanao CoCs authentic. The stage is set. There’s no one left to complain -well, except maybe VforCE (Volunteers for Clean Elections) which issued this statement:

Volunteers for Clean Elections (VforCE)

PRESS STATEMENT
June 21, 2007

We believe there is enough evidence to show no elections were held or that there was a failure of elections in many, if not all, areas of Maguindanao.

During the supposed May 14 elections in Maguindanao, teachers who served as members of the Board of Election Inspectors have claimed they filled up ballots in favor of administration candidates. NAMFREL was not given its copy of election returns.  And PPCRV and LENTE volunteers were refused access to many polling areas and canvassing centers. 

The Comelec cannot and should not continue insisting that teacher-whistleblowers step forward to personally testify on election irregularities in the province; one has already been killed, two have disappeared, and many are in hiding.  Without a climate of trust and security, which the Comelec should first seek to create, witnesses cannot reasonably be expected to expose themselves to great risks.  If the Comelec seeks stronger evidence of election irregularities, it should simply open up the ballot boxes as suggested by the teachers themselves.

More significantly, crucial documents to show elections did take place in the province have mysteriously gone missing for over a month now.  It has not helped that Team Unity has inexplicably failed to produce its own copy of election returns to support its claim of a 12-0 sweep in the senatorial contest.  Even if the missing documents eventually show up, they will be highly suspect and therefore should not be considered at all, for doing so could likewise result in a disenfranchisement of Maguindanaoans.

We, however, reiterate that for any special elections in Maguindanao to be meaningful, truthful and free, the Comelec, the PNP/AFP and the government, as the case may be, must take the following steps: •

cancel all gun permits and disarm  paramilitary units in the province
deploy the Philippine Marines to  ensure peace and order, including the safety of voters, election officers, and  watchers
replace local Comelec officials  with trusted Comelec personnel from other areas
count ballots in safe and secure  areas
ensure the effective participation  of watchdog groups and full media coverage, and
undertake voters education  activities before the elections.

If special elections cannot be conducted under these circumstances, then no such special elections should be held anymore.  In such a situation, we believe that it will be reasonable and acceptable to disregard the votes for senators in Maguindanao. For while it appears that local officials have been voted into office and have in fact already been proclaimed (after all, it takes only one vote for an unopposed candidate to win), the votes for the senatorial positions remain mysteriously unaccounted for.  With over a month now since elections have been held, even if they should show up, they should be deemed spurious and should therefore disregarded.

The Department of Justice drops charges versus senator-elect Honasan (surprise, surprise!). Not a surprise: GO: Trillanes unlikely to accept amnesty.

President finally gives her nod (daw): Arroyo committed to De Venecia, says Ilocos Sur solon. As Ferdinand Marcos used to say, “Aw, c’mon.” And as the President’s pet party is saying, too (or members thereof): KAMPI leader: Rep. Singson a liar.

Newsbreak reports on the now-ex-BIR chief:

…To be sure, Buñag has met some of the targets in previous months and quarters. But the agency’s performance is highlighted not only in December, but also in April. For two consecutive years under his watch, the agency missed collection targets.

Already, the shortfalls for the first five months of 2007 pushed the budget deficit to P41 billion. This is P10 billion more than the target for the first six months, or from January to June.

Whenever Buñag missed targets, he blamed others…

…The economic team has been promising to investors and analysts that the Philippines will attain a balanced budget by next year. Fiscal performance is a major consideration when they deliberate whether to upgrade or downgrade the outlook on our foreign debts. A downgrade or upgrade has an implication on our interest rates and foreign exchange rates.

With the balanced budget target next year, spending cuts do not seem to be the priority anymore, based on earlier pronouncements of the economic team. Spending cuts have implications on the ability of the various economic sectors to grow.

Infrastructure spending, for example, has an impact on whether an industry or a specific business can have more revenues.

The goal, therefore, has been to improve tax collection. But Buñag has not delivered.

Meanwhile, Arroyo meets with CEO of software firm about BIR operations. And the embattled Finance Secretary’s daddy goes on the warpath: Teves accuses CA House contingent of extortion racket. With an accusation like that, one can excuse the Senate majority being off to a bad start: Secret balloting to choose Senate prexy goes pfft.

Hope springs eternal: Bare terms of $365M ‘lost’ contract: Roxas. As Ellen Tordesillas puts it, it’s a national shame.

Overseas, Vietnam Gets Tough on School Cheats: and Zimbabwe is imploding -can’t help but agree with David Llorito when he says Philippines has become a normal country with normal problems -and that’s good.

The Inquirer editorial and Amando Doronila comment on the bungled cabinet revamp.

In the blogosphere, in On My Way Home, Martin Bautista says the long count is the whole point -and the whole problem- with elections. Commentary on Miguel Zubiri and Maguindanao comes from The Philippine Experience, from Islander in the City, from Unsent, and

On Trillanes, reflections from Philippine Commentary on the quandary the AFP chief finds himself in; Patsada Karajaw on the perils of making the wrong comparisons; Eush Tayco ponders on who’s been elected, and says while the public will should be respected, one doesn’t have to like it. One person who likes it -Trillanes’ election- is Me and My Political View.

Mackybaka! proposes a special election in October to fill the senate vacancy caused by Alfredo Lim’s election as mayor of Manila. The Lonely Vampire Chronicles on Billy Esposo’s unwarranted fears of Estrada -and suffering political karma.

Technorati Tags: Blogging, elections, media, military, philippines, politics, president, Senate

Dey wuz robbed!

Biggest headlines today: Attaché loses original copy of broadband deal (Philippine Star), Signed RP-China telecom contract stolen, official says (Inquirer). Fishy, fishy, fishy! As if the deal could get any murkier.

While the Times gets its nuances wrong in saying Malacañang says President forced Bunag to step down (the right nuance is in the Inquirer report, BIR chief fired, blames economic team, because yes, what the President did was fire her BIR chief), it’s proven true that Bunag was really on his way out; this report, I think, gives a sign of what the score really is: DOF reveals data that broke fiscal back on Buñag’s fate.

It seems plausible to me, that Bunag wanted to dress-up the government’s numbers by getting companies to pay their taxes ahead of time; for him to do so, it required the Finance Secretary and, ultimately, the President, to sign off on it: only by telling companies that advanced tax payments had the President’s ok did the BIR chief get companies to comply. But, the taxes having been paid, government numbers would eventually take a hit, which they did: at which point, a scapegoat would have to be found. And so, the BIR chief was sacked. So when a report like this comes out -Buñag: Teves convinced Arroyo to sack me- it suggests that Teves (who, lest we forget, is like his cabinet peer Favila: a politician as much as a technocrat) sensed someone would have to be sacrificed, and that Bunag had outlived his usefulness.

Now, Morales denies resigning as Customs chief. Other shoe about to drop? It gets curiouser: Fake resignation letter came from Customs chief’s office.

The thing is, no one is obeying the President. The latest is Palace set to clarify revamp plan: clarify what? That she’s the boss? Why else would you have this report: Palace extends resign deadline? As An OFW Living in Hong Kong puts it: it’s a mess, disorderly, and unpresidential.

Meanwhile, the fallout from the Bunag-era window-dressing has begun to be felt: BIR tightens watch on big business tax payments. Finance Sec. Teves tries to reassure everyone: Government says all efforts on to meet budget deficit goal. The President chimes in, too. In its editorial, the Manila Times tries to put the whole thing in context:

In its latest annual report on the Philippines, Moody’s explained at length why it withheld its vote of confidence on the government’s recent fiscal performance.

The credit-rating company’s decision went against Philippine officials’ expectation of an improvement in the country’s rating outlook to positive. Instead, Moody’s, much like Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services earlier, maintained its stable outlook, which means that the country would continue to bear the burden of a junk or below investment-grade credit standing for the next six to 12 months.

The burden comes via costlier borrowing, which the taxpayer—all of us—would have to bear in terms of higher taxes, poor public service, or both.

Moody’s said that the government’s success in keeping its budget deficit below ceiling last year, while noteworthy, was insufficient to keep up improvements in the fiscal sector over the long run.

This, it said, can be seen from the government’s difficulty in raising ample funds for its priority infrastructure projects. We may recall that the country’s economic managers just came from a road show in Japan, where they managed to convince foreign investors to pool a fund from where the government can draw funds to finance its priority projects.

Unfortunately, the fund pool is not exclusive for Philippine use—something our economic managers would prefer to mention as an aside.

A government or company usually undertakes a road show preparatory to borrowing other people’s money. The objective is to raise enough interest for investors to vote with their wallets and buy either the issuer’s new shares or debt papers.

In the case of their recent trip to Japan, Philippine officials said it was a nondeal road show aimed only at explaining to the investor community the government’s recent accomplishments. In other words, it was a junket.

That the country’s economic managers should return home with only commitments to invest in a fund pool meant not just for the Philippines says a lot about how people outside our borders regard our fiscal performance to date.

This is not meant to denigrate the achievements of the country’s economic managers. But as Moody’s said, the country’s current credit rating reflects its heavy debt burden relative to its peers. This burden leaves the country susceptible to financial shocks, similar to the Asian crisis of a decade ago, which closed down numerous businesses and rendered many Filipinos jobless.

Unfortunately, Moody’s statements, like those of Standard & Poor’s and one other major rating firm, are holy words for the international financial community. The government’s failure to meet tax collection goals in the first quarter only confirms these rating firms’ beliefs—that the Philippines is clearly not yet out of the woods.

Focusing purely on the political, my view is that where the President deserves to be pinned down,  is that she’s suffering from political paralysis. She refuses to crack the whip (even the Bunag issue festered longer than it should). For example, the way the fight for the speakership is getting nastier and nastier (see De Venecia: ‘I’m up against Garcia dynasty’) is partly due to the inability of the President’s very own pet party, Kampi, to discipline the rebels within its ranks (Villafuerte, et al.), and the President’s apparent disinclination to exercise a traditional prerogative of the presidency: the Speaker of the House, since time immemorial, has been designated by the President of the Philippines.

But she refuses to anoint her chosen one, which means the fight’s getting more furious among her allies. Scuttlebutt is that what was supposed to result in the toppling of Villafuerte from the presidency of Kampi was called off, on the President’s instructions, which means she’s unwilling to call the shots -so it’s a cannibalistic status quo. Jet Damazo thinks the President’s in “legacy” mode: but the subtext in his report is that a big player, here, is the military. And the military is unsure of what to do. Esperon tries to pass the buck when it comes to Antonio Trillanes: and why would he do this? Because he’s in a lose-lose situation, in terms of military opinion, perhaps?

The Marcoses continue their offensive. First against Lucio Tan, now to reclaim property in Pasig: Bongbong Marcos stakes claim on Pasig prime land.

Overseas: Caste-based hiring widens divide in India; while in France, Regulations stifle French labor market; an interesting snapshot of Indonesian politics (reminiscent of ours) in We are good at destroying, but bad at building; and a look at how Taiwan’s diplomatic prospects keep on dimming, in Taiwan’s Weak Diplomatic Hand; and Bloomberg quits the Republicans (after having previously left the Democrats) and so, Bloomberg stokes rumours of 2008 presidential bid. Party-switching isn’t apparently a problem for Americans (as it wasn’t, in an earlier time, a problem for Churchill in Britain).

In the punditocracy, my column for today has a simple title: Lost.

Lito Banayo takes an interesting peek at goings-on in the Palace, but also, makes an interesting proposal:

Why doesn’t Congress first rationalize the number of our barangays? For instance, Manila with its 2 million population has 897 barangays. Why, it’s almost one street per barangay in certain places. Some barangays do not even have enough registered voters to fill up one precinct. On the other hand, Antipolo City with a population of half-a-million, has only 12 barangays. And Quezon City, which has about 2.6 million souls, makes do with a little over a hundred barangays.

In the same manner that we are supposed to have one congressman for every 150,000 voters, why can’t we likewise re-do the number of barangays so they are indexed to population? Assume that one barangay must manage 25,000 people, then Manila would have 80, Antipolo would have 20, and Quezon City about 100.

He also suggests something I’ve covered elsewhere:

I propose that we abolish city and municipal councilors, and give the task of legislating ordinances to our barangay chairpersons. In the case of Manila or QC or Cebu or some such other huge cities, they could elect among themselves who should sit in the council, or, they could take turns sitting in the council, assuming we adopt what I believe should be a standard term of office – six years for all elected positions.

In the case of provinces, do away with the board members, also called “bokal” in Tagalog. Let the municipal mayors take turns legislating for the province, much like a board of directors. For provinces with a dozen or so municipalities, they could all sit in the board for six years. For provinces like Pangasinan and Cebu with more than 40 towns each, let them take turns at terms of three years.

And he also makes a pitch for bloc voting:

And if we adopt bloc voting for all executive posts, voters would have a very simple ballot to fill every six years, whether manually or computerized as it should be. A vote for the President is automatically a vote for his vice; for the governor and mayor and their “vices” likewise. One congressman. And if we elect senators by region, at two each, regardless of size or population, then the voter writes two additional names. Six names is all it takes. In the case of cities, like those in Metro Manila and the other highly-urbanized cities, all it would take is five names. Simple and less expensive. And believe me, much more efficient and service-effective.

In the blogosphere, The Journal of the Jester-in-Exile painstakingly dissects Executive Order 464 and what the AFP Chief of Staff can and can’t get away with vis-a-vis Senate investigations.

Philippines Without Borders tackles the inefficiencies in ports management and interisland shipping -and why government won’t go past cosmetic solutions.

Technorati Tags: Blogging, elections, Marcos, military, philippines, politics, president, Senate

Wild goose chase in Maguindanao

The Comelec Chairman and company are off to Maguindanao, in what the Inquirer editorial calls a wild goose chase. Meanwhile, Koko Pimentel appeals to the Supreme Court.

House intramurals update: Jose de Venecia insists on an open caucus of majority and his allies put the heat on Winston Garcia of the GSIS. 

Reuters reports It’s red flag for gov’t budget; 2007 target in danger:

Analysts said improving economic fundamentals, including low inflation, low interest rates and the sustained remittances from Filipinos working overseas, would probably offset the negative fallout from missed fiscal targets, for now at least.

But over the medium term, a reversal of the state’s fiscal fortunes after three straight years of lower-than-targeted deficits could hurt foreign investors’ renewed interest in the Southeast Asian country.

The Philippines needs to root out endemic tax evasion and improve collection to win an upgrade from credit rating agencies, which would reduce debt payments that currently gobble up around a third of the annual budget.

The government is relying on the sale of its stakes in Manila Electric and San Miguel to raise around P55 billion. Teves has been aiming to sell the San Miguel shares in the third quarter of this year.

Despite selling a stake in Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. for P25 billion, the government overshot its P45.8 billion deficit goal in the first quarter. The actual deficit was P52 billion.

And so: Arroyo appoints BIR officer-in-charge:

Buñag on Wednesday said taxes paid in advance, mostly due to the request of Finance Secretary Margarito Teves, affected BIR’s target collection for the first quarter of 2007.

BIR said one of the major factors for the low tax collection was taxes paid in advance by large taxpayers last year, which, it said, Teves was fully aware of.

“Such advance payments were made by various taxpayers upon the personal calls and requests made, as is well-known in the BIR, by no less than Finance Secretary Margarito B. Teves himself to the President/CEOs of taxpayers,” a statement released by the Office of the BIR Commissioner said.

It said the requests made by Teves were strongly criticized by Buñag and Assistant Commissioner Nestor Valeroso of BIR’s Large Taxpayers Service.

“The impact of the advance tax payments made in 2006 has affected the 2007 performance of the BIR’s Large Taxpayers Service in particular, which would have seen a more remarkable increase,” it added.

The statement said the practice of advance tax payments was prohibited when Buñag was appointed as BIR commissioner.

So Teves won, if the background in Alvin Capino’s column is any guide?

The latest news from highly reliable sources within the Ateneo alumni community is that Bureau of Internal Revenue chief Jose Mario Buñag is not inclined to accept the offer of Finance Secretary Gary Teves for the former to take on a diplomatic post in exchange for vacating the plum BIR seat.

Teves has reportedly told Buñag that he has convinced the President to give the latter the ambassadorship to Jordan or The Hague. Buñag is reportedly cold to the Teves offer and is heard to have said that he will simply wait till Teves announces his replacement, then quietly pack up and go back to the private sector.

The view of some members of the Ateneo HS class of 1960, to which Teves and Buñag belong to, who have followed this very disappointing ending to the Buñag-Teves saga, is that the BIR chief “has too much delicadeza to accept a diplomatic post after what is perceived as an unfair ouster scenario.”

And others begin to get the axe. Also, one faction favors accomodating Antonio Trillanes. Good cop, bad cop? Leaving Ricardo Saludo to be the bewhiskered bad cop?

AFP Chief of Staff will invoke Executive Order 464 if summoned to testify before the Senate.

President’s husband makes a rare TV appearance and formally withdraws some of his libel suits.

An interesting cluster of articles: an overview in Koreans ‘invade’ the Philippines, with reports on Only Korean businesses earn from Korean tourists while Korean businesses are bullish in Davao and Who’s afraid of Korean businesses in Baguio?

My Arab News column for this week is Philippine Cabinet’s Catch-22. The Business Mirror editorial focuses on presidential appointments to government-owned corporations as a means of political payback.

Manuel Buencamino advises Miguel Zubiri to cut, and cut cleanly.

Ellen Tordesillas on the Estrada trial -and the possible verdict.

Overseas, Seymour Hersch in the New Yorker, who helped expose the Abu Ghraib prison scandal, reports on Maj. Gen. Antonio Taguba and his efforts to investigate abuses at Abu Ghraib. If only Filipino officers showed the same zeal here at home. Here’s the zinger:

“From the moment a soldier enlists, we inculcate loyalty, duty, honor, integrity, and selfless service,” Taguba said. “And yet when we get to the senior-officer level we forget those values. I know that my peers in the Army will be mad at me for speaking out, but the fact is that we violated the laws of land warfare in Abu Ghraib. We violated the tenets of the Geneva Convention. We violated our own principles and we violated the core of our military values. The stress of combat is not an excuse, and I believe, even today, that those civilian and military leaders responsible should be held accountable.”

Taguba’s father was a veteran and survivor of the Death March: for the surviving veterans, a light at the end of the tunnel: 18,155 WWII vets to benefit from equity bill in US Congress.

In the blogosphere, have neglected keeping up-to-date on the invaluable blog of Dave Llorito, so a massive update required. First, he suggests RP’s 6.9 percent GDP grwoth is trickling down, but…

Are wages rising? It’s possible. That is quite observable in the case of the fast growing industry like the call centers, other cyberservices, and electronics. It’s also possible that the continued flow of skilled workers abroad has started to tighten labor supply. Or it’s also possible that the 6.9 percent growth rate may have really created more job opportunities. The rise in underemployment may suggest that those who are working simply took advantage of the opportunity by moving into those higher paying jobs. Maybe. That’s only my initial thoughts after looking at the aggregate numbers.

He follows this entry up with A second look at the April 2007 labor force survey:

According to the April labor force survey, the country’s unemployment rate, using the International Labor Organization definition, went down from 8.2 percent to 7.4 percent.

That’s not really miraculous because it simply means seven out of a hundred are jobless, compared to eight out of a hundred a year ago. In absolute terms, there are 33.7 million employed people in April this year, compared to 32.7 million in the same month last year—translating to about a million extra jobs.

But given our chronic high jobless rate, that’s an encouraging sign—more so because underemployment has gone down by almost 7 percentage points from 25.4 percent to 18.9 percent…

…Underemployment has gone down but the gains are largely confined in the industry and services. That seems to validate our earlier observations that so far the major beneficiaries of the recent surge in the economy are urban dwellers. And they are concentrated in the 35-years-and-over category, indicating that those who benefited most were probably supervisory or managerial level workers. Underemployment in the farm sector has actually worsened.

In summary, the major beneficiaries of the 6.9-percent growth are primarily those who are urban dwellers working in the industry and services sectors, mostly in the supervisory and managerial levels. The secondary beneficiaries are those engaged in the farm, construction and real estate sectors whose jobs are probably seasonal or cyclical. More so because those construction jobs were probably triggered by electoral considerations and may therefore vanish once the government feels they are not collecting enough revenues.

His globalized nationalism entry reminds of an experience I had during a forum at Miriam College in which Atom Araullo and I spoke. Atom pointed out Charter Change would open not just the economy to foreign investors, but also open up the educational system, too: something apparently horrible to him, but when he said it, the students’ eyes all glazed over. He’d lost them. He’d lost me, too.

Think of how AIM pioneered business management as an academic discipline in our part of the world, but now it’s struggling to attract students. Its fees are in US Dollars, but why go to AIM when all sorts of prestigious Western colleges and universities have tied up with regional counterparts in Hong Kong and Singapore? But imagine, say, if Harvard (of which a large chunk of our business community count themselves as alumni) or Wharton (ditto) were to tie up with AIM? But it’s not allowed.

I myself attended an International School for the last two years of my high school studies, and the International Baccalaureate Diploma gained me a whole bunch of academic credits at UP. I have to wonder why we don’t have more Philippine schools adopting the IB Curriculum. Which brings up another entry of great interest: Addressing the skills-job mismatch in the Philippines:

If we want this country to move a lot faster, we need a critical mass of engineers, mathematicians, software developers, physicists, and other fields in the sciences like biotechnology. These courses are the ones that really bring in the money and progress, as shown by countries that invested heavily in uplifting their school systems capability in mathematics and the sciences. We are talking here of places like Israel, Taiwan, China, Vietnam and India.

But if indeed these courses do give high economic returns for graduates, why is it that only a few students are taking up these subjects? There are several reasons.

First is that there is probably no market signal for students to take these courses, essentially because parents and students are not really aware of economic opportunities in these disciplines. If this is true, one reason is that there is no labor-market information system that could help students in making career decisions…

…Financing education is really a major problem in the Philippines. Many private universities want to invest in laboratories and faculty development. Yet they can only do that through expensive tuition, an option that is constrained by low purchasing power.

The only way to address this is by setting up some kind of a student loan program where students could pay the State later once they are able. Australia has that kind of system and Britain is learning from it. We could probably have the same here…

…The third factor: there are simply fewer people who can endure the rigors of science and engineering courses. If this is true, then the problem goes back to the poor quality of basic education. The solution, therefore, is reforming the elementary-schools system.

One possible solution is by strengthening subjects that really matter: mathematics, science, English and Filipino with laboratories on said subjects. Longer school hours can be assigned to these subjects so the students could have more time to learn new science or math concepts.

At the same time, there is an urgent need to train teachers in science, math and English. It is common knowledge that for lack of science and math teachers, many current teachers in these subjects had backgrounds in social studies, or even physical education. The government should also send these teachers to scholarships for higher learning.

Reforming the elementary-school system would take some time. But we can also take a few shortcuts by investing in science high schools. The local government units and the national government could do this through a counterparting arrangement. With more science high schools in cities and the big municipalities, we could probably increase the number of students who will eventually take science courses.

Finally, take a look at his article on From brain drain to brain circulation.
Blogger commentary on Maguindanao, the Comelec, and Zubiri: james jimenez loyally reports on the activities of his bosses; Alleba Politics thinks the Comelec boss bungled the job. Field of Dreams considers the probability two Pimentels were victimized by dagdag-bawas as very high; Partly Cloudy has little sympathy for Zubiri; The Philippine Experience is frankly hostile.

Philippine Commentary on moving the Rizal holiday from December 30 to June 19; On higher Grounds Defying Gravity has a similar opinion.Reactions to my piece on Rizal’s philosophy, from the Four-Eyed Journal and  Stellify and Big Mango.

Prudence and Madness wants to use her blog to help raise political and social awareness.

Technorati Tags: Blogging, constitution, elections, ideas, media, military, philippines, politics, president, Rizal, Senate, society, Washington DC

Positive interdependence

Former LA Consul-General Edwin Bael says Quezon was Right.

Technorati Tags: history, ideas, Quezon

Next Page »