Boxing her in
May 22, 2007 by mlq3
Filed under Daily Dose
The fifty percent plus mark has been reached, and passed, by Namfrel in its quick count. At one point, the Comelec count outpaced Namfrel: the poll watchdog group replied by saying this was due to their double-checking the figures, while the Comelec patted itself on the back (it helps they didn’t even bother with a blackboard for the results).
Hilarious headline: Fraud allegations alarm Abalos. Simply too much attention on Mindanao for comfort? His response is straight out of “Casablanca”: Shocked, shocked! The Inquirer editorial isn’t amused. GMANews.tv reports the Comelec admitting there were 300,000 “uncleansed” voters in Mindanao -about as many as the disputed Maguindanao results Namfrel has refused to count.
Mike Valarde gives unsolicited advice to the President: 1. accept the results of the senate elections; 2. don’t revive efforts to change the system of government. President’s game plan? She asks businessmen to help her out. Or else?
In the punditocracy, Alex Magno tries to deny reality (no, there is only one way of reading a senatorial election: sorry, but that’s the way it is), but along the way puts forward an interesting theory as to how voters make their senatorial choices.
Tony Abaya in his column for today (not online, alas, so I’ll copy most of it here as it’s a perfect counter-blast to Magno) puts it bluntly:
Let no one tell you differently. The 2007 mid-term elections were a referendum on the presidency of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. And the results show that she has lost that referendum, even if she was not a candidate for any office.
The canvassing of the votes for the Senate is still in progress. But … the final results will most likely be 6-4-2 or 7-3-2 or 8-2-2, in favor of the opposition. A reversal of fortune now, in favor of the administration coalition, is very improbable and would not be credible to most of the public.
The pre-election boasts of Malacanang and its paid hacks in media, that it will be 12-0-0 in favor of the TU, due to the so-called command votes hustled by its vaunted machinery, would not be believable, either locally or nationwide.
But it is not just in the senatorial elections that Malacanang and GMA are taking a beating. Even in the congressional and local elections, GMA has lost, -in some cases, lost spectacularly.
In General Santos City, Darlene Custodio has knocked out GMA’s Manny Pacquiao. In Makati City, Jejomar Binay (not my favorite politician) overwhelmed GMA’s Lito Lapid. In Pampanga Province, the priest Ed Panlilio, with help of local People Power, defeated GMA’s personal friend Lilia Pineda, wife of the alleged jueteng lord of Luzon, Bong Pineda. In Naga City, Jesse Robredo prevailed over GMA’s Jojo Villafuerte. In Manila, the septuagenarian Alfredo Lim trounced GMA’s youthful Ali Atienza. In Isabela Province, Grace Padaca rose from behind and edged out the pro-GMA Dy political dynast.
Of course, it has to be admitted that the disorganized opposition was not able to field any candidates in scores of gubernatorial, mayoral and congressional contests. But this is not a communist country. The “victory” of administration candidates in these uncontested elections does not amount to victory in a referendum.
A referendum pre-supposes a choice from at least two competing points of view. By that criterion, uncontested elections are not a referendum on anything or anyone. It is in the contested elections that real choice is expressed, and by this standard, President Arroyo has lost that referendum.
And she lost it even if she was not a candidate for any office, even if no specific issue was raised against her during the campaign.. SHE was the unstated issue in this election, and the electorate voted convincingly against her and her proxies, not in favor of the deposed President Joseph Estrada, the presumed financier of the GO campaign. To repeat, voters voted against Gloria, not in favor of Erap.
It is in this context that one must view the record-breaking upsurge in the stock market and the continued revaluation of the peso against the US dollar. Aside from the weakening of the US dollar abroad and the continued influx of OCW remittances, the up-tick in economic indicators was not necessarily in support of GMA’s political agenda.
Economic and business policies were not an issue in the midterm elections, as they seldom are in Philippine elections. The market was reacting positively to the fact that the elections took place at all and that the results seem to reflect the general sentiments of the public as reflected in pre-election public opinion surveys and the Pulse Asia exit poll. This means, the market sees the political situation to be stable and have voted with their investment dollars and pesos.
On the other hand, if the final election results were to suddenly take a reverse turn and show TU winning, against the expectations of the general public, then the possibility of political instability will loom, and the market will react accordingly.
Political instability may take several forms, from massive street protests to high-profile political assassinations, to attempted coups d’etat by the followers of Gringo Honasan and/or Antonio Trillanes. This will draw repressive responses from the military and police, and trigger capital flight and the weakening of the peso. We will be back to a 1980s future.
To forestall this scenario, President Arroyo should publicly acknowledge that she has lost the de facto referendum and should devote the rest of her term to leaving a good legacy in 2010.
That means no more maneuvers to amend the Constitution to shift to a parliamentary system of government. I have always seen this maneuver as a ploy for her to remain in power after 2010, as prime minister, as I told the Rotary Club of Manila last week…
Tied to this maneuver was the plan of her miniscule party KAMPI to become the biggest political party after the 2007 elections, as outlined by then KAMPI President (and current Local Government Secretary) Ronaldo Puno during their party congress in February 2005, “on how we can make KAMPI a truly dominant party after the 2007 elections: The objective should be the biggest political party in the political scenery. And to do this, if we quantify it, we have to have at least 120 congressmen…..”
Puno claimed that KAMPI already has 1,580 municipal mayors, or half the total number, as members. Having half the congressmen as well will truly make KAMPI “the dominant party after 2007.”
Why, I asked the Manila Rotarians, would President Arroyo want to make her miniscule party the biggest after 2007, three years before the end of her non-extendable term as president, unless she plans to use it in 2010, to remain in power as prime minister?
President Arroyo should accept that she has lost the de-facto midterm referendum and should prepare to bow out gracefully in 2010.
Incidentally (hat tip to Uniffors), John Mangun says it’s not the government that deserves credit when companies do well in the stock market:
The credit for stock prices reaching this new level belongs to none of those wanting all the glory. It is not political conditions. It is not merely economic policy. It is not the government fiscal programs. It is not foreign financial institutions praising the investment climate in the country. Although all these play a factor in price movement, the responsibility and, therefore, the glory belongs to the management of the companies listed on the PSE.
Going back to Abaya… Let me point out that Abaya expresses what I think is an emerging consensus among people who aren’t fans of the President: to grant her a reprieve, but a highly conditional one. I can”t emphasize the significance of Randy David’s Sunday column, which laid down three conditions for “moving on”:
1. accept the results of the election;
2. cleanse the Comelec so there will be clean polls in 2010;
3. the President shut make it explicit that her political career ends in 2010.
The question is whether the President can -or wants to- think of simply finishing her term gracefully. Tests of her good faith remain: how the senate race ends up; whether she’ll revive charter change; who her new cabinet appointments will be; how she handles dissent from now on, etc.
Incidentally, Ed Montalvan points to how the machinery broke down in his part of the country.
Gladstone Cuarteros says unless the Namfrel quick count stays quick, it will become susceptible to the same manipulation as the Comelec count.Two interesting discussion on the coming challenge of finally computerizing our elections, by Ruben Canlas and by Philippine Commentary.
Lucia Bill takes a look at a local race decided by a coin toss: and says it betrays an undemocratic attitude.
Overseas: Slate looks at an organization trying to prove voter fraud in America -and which went poof!
In the blogosphere, preliminary post-mortems on the election, from ExpectoRants (uneasy over the results), Ang Malaya (it’s a slap! and another! slap, slap, slap!) while katataspulong says the country’s been Balkanized:
Imperial Manila is now a myth. The 1987 Charter is nothing but the emasculation of the presidency. There are many provisions that limit the power of the Executive. With the local autonomy act local leaders are surprised by the magnitude of their prerogatives. There is more preference over local elective posts now than a congressional seat. Before congressmen were revered as local leaders. Now it’s the city mayors and governors. In 1992, two congressmen from Quezon, Benny Marquez and Oca Santos, went down to contest the governorship in Quezon. Local politicians fortify their grassroots organization for any eventuality. Bets for national posts woo these datus. The enviable organization acquires monetary equivalent in the Asset section of the Balance Sheet.
A flurry of blog posts about Sonny Trillanes. just being… stella has an interesting take on his strong showing, courtest of a Jesuit:
…my coffee buddy Paringbert a.k.a. Fr. Albert E. Alejo SJ had one word to describe what happened: “Dabog.”
Is it a manifestation of the people’s dwindling support for the administration? my reporter asked.
“Nagdadabog,” Paringbert said again. The “bayan” is not up in arms nor is it inclined to take up arms, he said. But it is down on the floor, screaming and stomping; demanding change, right away, right now!
Nagdadabog na bayan… hmmmm… that’s an unusual but graphic concept of the state of Philippine society.
I know the feeling so well after I cast my vote for an unknown just to blow a red ripe raspberry at an incumbent and wrote about it with glee for everyone to read the following day. Dabog…
…The people are not up in arms. They merely trooped to their precincts, scribbled their choices, went home to watch the television keep track of the way the other people voted.
Sure there are still a lot of hocus-pocus being made in the senatorial race, but the people have already made their voices heard in the local level and in the runup for the senatorial race (before the magic wands are wielded, maybe), and after their “dabog”… comes the reglamentary sticking out of the tongue and blowing a big fat red raspberry… and “Pikaaaat!”
After the dabog, the pikat… the relief. It worked when we were kids. We screamed, we threw a tantrum, pouted, blew a raspberry, sulked, then threatened… “Bantay ka lang…” a threat that was very rarely followed through with action. Sometimes it worked, sometimes it didn’t. But one thing for sure, we were heard. Oh boy, were we heard (especially when we did that in public places). And boy, did we cause great embarrassment to our moms.
I can’t help but be inclined to agree!
A vigorous debate in the comments section of An ‘Inconvenient Truth’ (or, Why Trillanes could win).
Journal of the Jester-in-Exile thinks Ang Kapatiran blew it.
Technorati Tags: Charter Change, constitution, elections, philippines, politics, president, Senate, society
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Nick on Tue, 22nd May 2007 1:02 pm
Excellent point Manuel, but looking at the actions of Gloria as of late, with regards to her statements, I’m not so sure she will go out so gracefully.
The three points that Randy mentions is definitely the best case scenario for the good of the nation during the next three years, but after Gloria’s term, I still think that a fair and speedy inquiry into her presidency should be made, including, but not limited to, her 2004 presidential win.
toniong pagod on Tue, 22nd May 2007 2:07 pm
I am inclined to agree with the opinions expressed here so far. Time and again has Gloria decided to go against overwhelming evidence and impose her view of the state of the nation on this country (with all the instrumentalities of government behind her).
“The Emperor’s New Clothes” has been the story of the Administration, especially since 2004.
I point to Gloria’s calls for unity and cooperation after this election… and wonder whether she’ll actually do her part when the final results come in.
manuelbuencamino on Tue, 22nd May 2007 2:29 pm
“Let me point out that Abaya expresses what I think is an emerging consensus among people who aren’t fans of the President: to grant her a reprieve, but a highly conditional one. I canâ€t emphasize the significance of Randy David’s Sunday column, which laid down three conditions for “moving onâ€
Why? What reprieve? Has Gloria thrown in the towel?
Is Tony Lopez once again doing work for Malacanan- floating a ceasefire balloon? Ano yan “I am sorry Reloaded?”
“3. the President should make it explicit that her political career ends in 2010.”
And what? We will forget all about the Garci tapes, Joc-joc and all that? Besides hasn’t she said all along she only wants to finish her term? And, all this time, wasn’t the issue precisely “what term is she talking about?”
Gloria is not a lame duck. She is a cornered rat. That makes her truly dangerous. It’s not the time to holster your guns, boys.
manuelbuencamino on Tue, 22nd May 2007 2:32 pm
“but after Gloria’s term, I still think that a fair and speedy inquiry into her presidency should be made, including, but not limited to, her 2004 presidential win.”
what good is the grass when the horse is dead?
manuelbuencamino on Tue, 22nd May 2007 2:41 pm
“but after Gloria’s term, I still think that a fair and speedy inquiry into her presidency should be made, including, but not limited to, her 2004 presidential win.”
why after, why not now?
Jon Mariano on Tue, 22nd May 2007 2:58 pm
Not right now because she’s in position and nobody can force her to do anything. It follows then that if she doesn’t give up her powers after 2010, she still can’t be touched, right?
manuelbuencamino on Tue, 22nd May 2007 3:52 pm
Jon,
Exactly. We have not won anything yet so there’s no reason to become magnaninous and start granting conditional repieves.
devilsadvc8 on Tue, 22nd May 2007 4:07 pm
“She is a cornered rat. That makes her truly dangerous. It’s not the time to holster your guns, boys.”
Which is why I don’t want to be here when her term nears it’s end. In fact, I’m fearful of staying here beyond 2007. When the results of the election and all its consequences start playing out.
There is simply, NO WAY OUT for her once she’s out of Malacanang. Which is why she’s fighting, tooth and nails, to hang onto power. She knows she will get what’s coming to her (and more. maybe a raping, since that’s what she did to this country) once she’s out of office.
The challenge then for us, is to show her how it will be much better for her to go slowly into the night, than fight agst it. We have to make her see, that everything will be much worse off for her if she doesn’t start showing sincere remorse (for her boo-boos) and genuine effort to discipline the executive back to efficient service FOR THE PEOPLE. If we give her, a better future to look forward to (perhaps a lighter sentence, or a commutation)(ARGH! even my mind winced at that thought), then maybe she’ll give up all this tyrannical tendency and nonsense.
Asa pa me.
hvrds on Tue, 22nd May 2007 4:09 pm
The revolution will start at the local level. The ferocity of the local contests in many parts of the country once again brought forth by advances in communication.
Today on the network news you could get reports from all areas of the country and brought into ones living rooms. Instant communication.
In one sitting one can see and hear Grace Padaca, Go of NAMFREL (non-release of ER’s) and Leviste of Batangas and others complaining about the COMELEC.
The country owes an eternal debt of gratitude to Garci and GMA on their masterpiece “Rigging Elections for Dummies.”
Writing down so many names on each ballot and the process of counting and recording each precinct and consolidating the results onto other forms. A really masochistic process. So many details and so many ways for the devil to play.
If Commissioner Sarmiento would like to find out why elections are so difficult in Muslim Mindanao he should go there incognito without police or military escorts. He would probably get killed and that in itself would be proof of the problem. He anyway said that it is a cultural phenomenon. Why bother to hold elections where the idea of political free choice is still an alien concept. If they are tribal communities then accept it and leave them be. A port of One country two systems type of situation.
Uniffors- Life in Gloria’s Enchanted Kingdom » Lame Duck or Cornered Rat? on Tue, 22nd May 2007 4:18 pm
[...] Manolo Quezon writes about a disturbing development within the ranks of the opposition. [...]
Jon Mariano on Tue, 22nd May 2007 4:24 pm
If ever Gloria decides to hold on to power beyond 2010, is there a mechanism in our country to get rid of her? If she still has control over the government and the military, what could ordinary citizens do? Or is it okay just to move on with her beyond 2010?
It seems to be we just have to trust her that she’s actually stepping down in 2010.
manuelbuencamino on Tue, 22nd May 2007 4:43 pm
“The challenge then for us, is to show her how it will be much better for her to go slowly into the night, than fight agst it. We have to make her see, that everything will be much worse off for her if she doesn’t start showing sincere remorse (for her boo-boos) and genuine effort to discipline the executive back to efficient service FOR THE PEOPLE. If we give her, a better future to look forward to (perhaps a lighter sentence, or a commutation)(ARGH! even my mind winced at that thought), then maybe she’ll give up all this tyrannical tendency and nonsense. Asa pa me.”
If Gloria steps down now, her coalition will disintegrate. We can now look forward to the resignation of her entire cabinet (Esperon, Ebdane, Gobzalezes et al) and all her political appointees in Pagcor, PRC and all that.. In addition, Abalos and company and Ombudsgirl Ditas Gutierrez will either be pressured to resign or face impeachment.
Now do you want to wait until 2010 for all those good things to happen?
janie on Tue, 22nd May 2007 5:41 pm
see, before the 2004 elections, we trusted her word when she said she didn’t have plans of running again. and she did. personally, i wouldn’t trust any word that she’ll be stepping down in 2010.
if she decides to hold to power beyond 2010, i think we ordinary citizens can do a lot of things which i believe have started with the partial results of the recent elections.
Shaman of Malilipot on Tue, 22nd May 2007 5:48 pm
“If ever Gloria decides to hold on to power beyond 2010, is there a mechanism in our country to get rid of her? If she still has control over the government and the military, what could ordinary citizens do? Or is it okay just to move on with her beyond 2010?
“It seems to be we just have to trust her that she’s actually stepping down in 2010.”
If this were the mindset of the Filipinos in 1986, EDSA 1 would have never been. This is the mindset that all tyrants (including Gloria) dream of – the people’s total acceptance of utter helplessness.
No, Jon, the Filipino people are not as helpless as you think they are. They will act when the proper time comes.
To trust Gloria to step down would have been like trusting Marcos to give up his dictatorial powers.
Shaman of Malilipot on Tue, 22nd May 2007 6:06 pm
As evidence that Gloria will not go gently into the good night, Esperon has just announced the return of the military to the slum communities in Metro Manila, saying that the CPP has its tentacles in the slum areas and even in the universities. So, expect military agents posing as students to crawl inside the campuses as in the time of Marcos.
vic on Tue, 22nd May 2007 6:06 pm
Another Election come and done, and the same problems exist, despite all the advances in IT and the speed of which communication are transmitted the results of elections take forever to be known, and the violence and the allegations of frauds related to elections are still going on. And some are talking of moving on, while some are trying hard to move to the rear.
Now, the Voters as most (although some will disagree, and that is alright) will agree had decided on national consensus that they are not satisfied or in some way is telling the President to either Clean up her act, her administration, be her own Boss, do what she is saying , instead of double speak, stop lying, (yes, she is a liar) or Quit.
Now the Delemma; the institutions that GMA vacates in case she decided to quit or get kicked out, one way or the other is the same as when she was the President. It is still subject to Patronage, too much arbitrary power without the overseer of the other Co-equal branch of the Governments, the Congress and the Judicial and the Military, which in a Democracy is subservient to the civil government is the proxy head of the Government. (GMA will tell you that without the Generals she would had been tied to the stake long time ago).
Now tell what would become of the good boys and girls that are wanting to take over the baking the goods???
Jon Mariano on Tue, 22nd May 2007 6:12 pm
Shaman, so you think there will be another People Power if Gloria decides she still wants to stay in Malacanang? What will move the people to do so? As much as I want Gloria to leave office now, there seems to be no way that she can be thrown out if she wanted to stay.
the jester-in-exile on Tue, 22nd May 2007 7:04 pm
to be completely accurate, mlq3, i think that ang kapatiran did a good job running for office. what i think their failure was (mentioned in this comment was the presumption that God must be the center of our politics. no goddamned way (pun intended) — the REPUBLIC must be at the center of our politics.
Eric D.C. on Tue, 22nd May 2007 7:18 pm
What else can you ask for substantial discussions that this blog provides?
Opposing views, maybe….
Nick on Tue, 22nd May 2007 7:52 pm
Manuelbuencamino,
I agree with Randy David’s point of view, but it should be extended to reforms not only in the COMELEC but other departments as well. Then let’s add to Randy’s column and file charges afterwards.
In the likely scenario in which she doesn’t change her attitude and actions towards changing the form of government, and if she doesn’t move for reforms in the military, COMELEC, and other defunct departments, then by all means, let’s move ahead with impeachment..
So, in the coming weeks, the actions of The President will be important as to how we should proceed…
jonphil on Tue, 22nd May 2007 7:56 pm
Nostradamus must have had a pinoy blood. Too many predictions being casted around, too many smart aces acting as commentators and editors of newspapers and blogs.
Kalma lang, mga bay ug inday. Da Pilipins is comprised of luzon, visayas, and mindanao.
The ballots are being tabulated. The pen that wrote the ballot is now parked. I hope so with our upper part.
UPn student on Tue, 22nd May 2007 9:16 pm
Vic… supposedly, the elections just completed means that there will be no constitutional changes, but who on this blogsite will believe that every single member of the Opposition are truly committed against GMA? A dilemma happens when GMA’s sweet-talking convinces the Congress to enact constitutional changes.
I wish that the Opposition quickly push a law similar to Japan’s. Japan, too, is working towards constitutional changes. But Japanese lawmakers have enacted a law that makes their constitutional change more thorough, three years more thorough, to be exact. The law says that (while a Congressional Committee has the lead in identifying what charter changes should be considered) the Japanese people will vote on the charter changes, not this year, not next year, but 3 years from now.
Equilibrium on Tue, 22nd May 2007 9:37 pm
MB,
You underestimate Gloria too much that is why time and time again she has outsmarted you and her opponents not because she’s wise or smart but because she takes risks and for that she’s adeptly cunning in maneuvering things which clearly you don’t have a clear grasp (try as you might you will just end up stupid or prophetic at best, more of the former than the latter) and as or the cornered rat euphemism I think she is more of an anaconda in the sense that even though they are wounded, bruised they act as if they’re not making their prey always at their wits end like you…
justice league on Tue, 22nd May 2007 10:06 pm
UPN,
The Japanese idea might be good but unfortunately that will itself require an amendment in our Charter already.
Maybe the Japanese Constitution didn’t specify when a plebiscite needs to be undertaken so they can easily make a law for that.
manuelbuencamino on Tue, 22nd May 2007 10:27 pm
Nick,
What you say is correct. However, I disagree in ine aspect and that is “So, in the coming weeks, the actions of The President will be important as to how we should proceed…”
I believe WE should dictate how SHE sgould proceed. The momentum is with us.
Other than that, I have no argument with what you said.
Shaman of Malilipot on Tue, 22nd May 2007 10:37 pm
Jon, the only way Gloria can stay in power after 2010 is either for her to change the political structure through Cha-Cha which the people won’t allow (she had a foretaste of the public wrath last December, and she better heed her spiritual adviser’s advice)or declare martial law and establish a dictatorship which the people won’t accept either, not after the Marcos experience, and not from an illegitimate President.
But it does not have to come down to this. There is a constitutional mechanism to render justice for Gloria’s many sins, if only Congress will allow it to work. And that is what the people want the 14th Congress to do. That, in essence, is the message of the May 14th elections.
manuelbuencamino on Tue, 22nd May 2007 10:52 pm
Equilibium,
“You underestimate Gloria too much that is why time and time again she has outsmarted you and her opponents not because she’s wise or smart but because she takes risks and for that she’s adeptly cunning in maneuvering things which clearly you don’t have a clear grasp ,,,”
I would be underestimating her if I called her a lame duck. But I called her a cornered rat – a very dangerous and unpredicatble animal. So if there is any estinmting to be done here, all I will say is “you over-estimate your intelligence”.
“and as or the cornered rat euphemism I think she is more of an anaconda..”
!. Comparing Gloria to a cornered rat is not a euphemism; unless you believe calling her a rat is not strong enough.
2. Be careful when you liken the people you adore to certain creatures . An anaconda is a snake so you just called Gloria a snake.
watchful eye on Tue, 22nd May 2007 10:56 pm
She’s an anaconda! A 3 1/2 long anaconda? hehe
jonphil on Tue, 22nd May 2007 10:59 pm
We are not only replete with crystalball gazers, we too have many analysts on what the message, essence, and symbolism of the may 14 election is all about. Beat that CNN, da pilipins is full of intellects.
Our votes are being tabulated. The pen that wrote the ballot is now parked. I hope so with our upper part.
ay_naku on Tue, 22nd May 2007 11:02 pm
Ang pathetic ng situation noh? We, the sovereign people, are powerless against GMA? She can do whatever she wants, remain in power as long as she wants, and we can’t do anything about it except made dabog? What have become of us? Ay naku.
jonphil on Tue, 22nd May 2007 11:18 pm
As chiz would fondly say (ALL CAPS):
INSOFAR AS the thread title, Boxing her in, IS CONCERNED, Ellentordesilla cunningly knows how to BOX IN GMA in her blog while her hardcore junior grade lieutenants gang up and annihilate Arroyo.
On the other hand, Ellen knows how to BOX OUT commenters from expressing contrary views. I have been attempting to log back in but I seemed to have been blocked/banned.
Ellen maintains an imbalanced and partial blog and commentaries in malaya and continually rants on GMA being a cheater – look who’s talking. The pot calling the kettle black. They both have moles too.
Nick on Wed, 23rd May 2007 12:43 am
Ok, I take some of it back, GMA will definitely not back down in her push for Charter change…
This is coming from her recent statements…
So, I guess the question is, impeachment, block moves for charter change, or both? And at what cost?
GMA Waving No White Flag. Charter Change Is Still On! - The Voice of The Filipino - Tingog.com on Wed, 23rd May 2007 1:13 am
[...] Manuel has posted an interesting article written by Tony Abaya. Manuel goes on to [...]
The Ca t on Wed, 23rd May 2007 1:17 am
I do not want to rain on your parade guys but have you looked at the House of Representatives lately.
That’s where they outsmarted you people. The HR is dominated by pro-admin representatives. I wonder if they can get the minimum number of votes to impeach.
kimosabe27 on Wed, 23rd May 2007 1:52 am
It’s no longer a matter of being “outsmarted”, it is a matter of relevance. Impeachment is already outdated as a political tool, a mere flash in the pan. What is three years of squabbling in an arena where the outcome is already predetermined.
I say that the new battleground is in the senate. Gloria might still be in a bunker mentality but the reinvigorated solons will be on siege mode from today to 2010. The presidential hopefuls have to strut their stuff and being timid will not get them the media mileage they need.
The people have now given their mandate, they want to see Gloria flaggelated and quartered.
I am now stretching my legs and cushioning the back of my head with my palms. The political fireworks between the Senate and Malacanang are now about to resume, it will be an exciting spectacle.
vic on Wed, 23rd May 2007 1:59 am
To impeach or not to, is not the question. Gloria can stay in power is she wishes too. Too many “justifiable” reasons. There is the NPA insurrection, the secessionist movements, the deteriorating law and order condition, and just one bomb explosion somewhere and one EO, and she will be in power beyond 2010.
The problem in the country as it stands now is the partial breakdown of the rule of law, in some instances, the absence of it. In some provinces and towns the “law”
are the local leaders. And the courts and the law enforcement agencies are subservient to the local warlords, Chavit Singson in one warlord for example and so is the Governor of Maguindanao. So we can say that in some parts of the Philippines it has the semblance of the interior of Afghanistan. The only difference is in Afghanistan, the main object of interest is the Opium, while in the Philippines there quite several (smuggling, Jueting, kickbacks, patronage, etc, etc.)So somehow, we can understand why dynasties would not spare their own treasures and don’t think a little harder in breaking the law of man to become even a small town mayor or Governor and further up the ladder a representative or senator or the top honcho, the President.
camry on Wed, 23rd May 2007 2:15 am
GMA will try everything to stay in Malacanang after 2010. Once the next congress will start, GMA’s allies will push for the Amendment of the Constitution, especially that JDV was re-elected. Congress is on GMA’s side. Do you think the new congress will let the “pork barrel” go spoiled? How can they recoup thier expenses during the last election?
Three years will be enough to change the constitution. This will happen of course if anti charter change are out numbered and fence-sitters will jump into GMA’s pool.
I suggest, at this early, the anti-charter group will start working and stay vigilant in order that when they see signs of coming storm, they are already prepared. They should continue to be noisy.
camry on Wed, 23rd May 2007 2:26 am
The people should stop thinking about impeachment. As Vic have mentioned above, GMA can stay in power if she wish.
The breakdown of discipline is worse this time when you compare during pre FM martial law years. During those years, goons of politicians are the abusers. This time, the goons of politicians; the crook members of the AFP & the police; and the NPA’s are contributing to the break down of discipline.
David Cubar on Wed, 23rd May 2007 2:38 am
I do agree that the Senatorial election is a referendum on GMA but to generalize that the whole election is also a referendum is a lie devoid of reality. The Inquirer in one if its analysis admitted that this election was not about GMA – and besides if there was really a huge discontent that would spill over to local levels then we should have seen a big loss in Congress. By golly, the examples given does not reflect national sentiment but bound by local issues. Binay won because of his exemplary record and so is Lim. Panlilio is a product of Pampanga’s pride and Custodio of political dynasty.
I have to admit GMA has Marcosian tendencies but I rather have her than have a seemingly good politician while I languish in poverty.
kimosabe27 on Wed, 23rd May 2007 2:39 am
Will there be a catfight between Legarda and Gloria? I hope that some mudwrestling is involved.
manuelbuencamino on Wed, 23rd May 2007 4:04 am
“Gloria can stay in power is she wishes too. ”
Just like she can win 12-0 because of her political macinery?
She don’t look that invincible anymore.
UP n student on Wed, 23rd May 2007 4:09 am
El Shaddai Velarde as reported by Inquirer:
He said he doubted that the opposition could succeed if it made a third attempt to impeach Ms Arroyo.
“If I were in their position, I would prepare for the 2010 elections. Otherwise, their gains today could vanish because the people would get angry thinking ‘Ano ba kayo? Kami ang naghihirap (Who do you think you are? We are the ones suffering),†Velarde said.
A future president?
Velarde said the potential for people power “is still there†but that the people were fed up for lack of a real alternative to President Arroyo.
Velarde said that with Fr. Eddie “Among†Panlilio’s spectacular win in Pampanga province, the Roman Catholic priest could turn out to be the best candidate for the 2010 presidential election.
Velarde said he was prepared to endorse Panlilio for President if he made good on his promise to stamp out the illegal numbers game “jueteng†and corruption in Pampanga.
“If he makes good, and I think he will … he could be the next President that we need,†Velarde said. “We need people like him.â€
ay_naku on Wed, 23rd May 2007 4:51 am
Maybe YOU are not languishing in poverty and living a good life, BUT:
About a third of the country’s population live below the poverty line, and nearly half live on less than P100 a day.
thenewstoday.info/2007/03/27/walk.the.talk.html
http://www.newsflash.org/2004/02/hl/hl101656.htm
The percentage of families experiencing involuntary hunger at least once in the past three months stayed at the record-high 19.0%, or an estimated 3.4 million households, in the First Quarter 2007 Social Weather Survey, conducted over February 24-27. The record-high incidence of household hunger of 19.0% was first set in November 2006. Hunger has been at double-digits since June 2004.
sws.org.ph
Under GMA’s stewardship, our country is now the most corupt country in Asia.
iht.com/articles/2007/03/13/business/peso.php
The Philippines is the 2nd most dangerous country for journalists, second only to Iraq.
pcij.org/blog/?p=562
Do we even need to reiterate the horrendous political killings and disappearances and human rights abuses that a UN investigation team largely attributed to the military? Ilang beses na ba na-kastigo si GMA ng international community tungkol dito?
csmonitor.com/2007/0223/p07s02-woap.html
Really, you would prefer to have all that? Or maybe the better term is that you are willing to OVERLOOK all that, as long as hindi ka apektado personally?
cvj on Wed, 23rd May 2007 5:49 am
Ay_naku, you’re right. A lot of our countrymen are willing to overlook a lot of things as long as they don’t know where the bodies are buried.
Bencard on Wed, 23rd May 2007 6:32 am
mlq3, the failure of the TU senatorial candidates to sweep the polls (7-3-2 or 6-4-2 in GO’s favor) is hardly a “massive rejection” of PGMA, regardless of hysterical comments along that line, in or out of this blog. Many indicators have been cited, not the least of which is the apparent overwhelming triumph of PGMA’s coalition in the congressional, governatorial and mayoral elections.
GO’s partial victory in the senate race does not necessarily spells successful future reprisals against PGMA, including the waning clamor for impeachment which is a totally hopeless and useless proposition.
If many Filipinos seem to hate PGMA (albeit not enough to oust her from office a la Marcos and Erap), her situation is far from unique. In fact all Philippine presidents in history who completed their tenure alive suffered the same calumny and opprobrium toward the end of their administration. It seems that the only ones who escaped the insane wrath of an ungrateful nation were those who died tragically while in office. Osmena, Quirino, Garcia, Macapagal, Marcos, Aquino, Ramos, and Estrada, who all lived throughout their presidency, share the same types of vitriol and bad-mouthings (though in varying degrees). On the other hand, those who died without completing their term, e.g., Quezon, Roxas, and Magsaysay seem to enjoy a kinder and gentler treatment from a grieving nation.
It seems that a president has to die in office in order to be loved and respected by his people. Don’t you agree?
baycas on Wed, 23rd May 2007 6:55 am
gloria has sacrificed before, albeit in different forms…who’s stopping her to SACRIFICE even more beyond 2010…a sacrifice at the expense of our never-ending divisiveness she has prophesied in the past…
—–
December 30, 2002
The woman who once described her presidency as “made in heaven” said Monday, December 30, that God has told her not to seek another term as the Philippines’ President.
Speaking on local radio, 55-year old Gloria Macapagal Arroyo announced she had decided to drop out of the presidential race in 2004. “It is God who puts ideas in my heart,” explained Arroyo.
“In fact, in my attendance at Mass, it felt to me like He was telling me that He chose me to become president because He also knows that when He tells me not to run, then I would not run,” she said…
…”If I don’t make this sacrifice, what will happen to our country…to prevent all of this, a sacrifice is needed. THE FIRST ONE WHO SHOULD MAKE THE SACRIFICE IS THE ONE WHO LEADS THE COUNTRY,” Arroyo said in the radio interview…
(from biblenetworknewsdotcom)
—–
October 4, 2003
In a speech before a mixed crowd of more than 50,000 at the Expo Filipino Amphitheater here, the President said: “I will offer myself as the leader with the experience and vision necessary to change society, to achieve economic development and eliminate poverty.”
“Tatakbo ako sa pagka Pangulo sa eleksyon ng Mayo 2004,” (I will run in the May 2004 elections, the President said to the thunderous applause of the crowd…
…She said that when she announced last Dec. 30, 2002 her desire not to seek election for the presidency in 2004, she “wanted to pass the torch. I wanted to earn my personal peace from the riveting pressure of presidential work. But most of all, I wanted to give our people relief from the unabated politicking.”
For a while, the President said, the strategy worked as the “enemies laid down their disruptive swords of politicking…”
…But all the achievements made by the government in a short time were dampened by the renewed attacks by “our enemies (who) prefer to sow disunity so that they can wrest power from the people,” the President said.
With the successful imposition of the various programs of the government, the President noted that “our enemies once again resorted to their Machiavellian schemes in Oakwood and in the hit-and-run exposes,” referring to the military mutiny in July and the unfounded allegations hurled against the First Family…
“…But in the same way that I made a decision last December 30 by myself, today I make known that I reached the decision also by my own discernment. I am not motivated to run because I was thrust, shoved, urged or pressed,” the President said.
“Nakikita ko ang pangangailangan ng mas higit pang sakripisyo at gagampanan ko ito (I SEE THE NEED FOR MORE SACRIFICES AND I AM WILLING TO UNDERGO IT),” the President added…
…She said some people asked her why she changed her mind. “What matters more is that I changed my mind because there is a higher cause…to change society in a way that flourishes our future…Taking up the call laid before me exacts more courage, more sacrifice, more obedience to God and our people.”
“And humbly,” she said, “I accept this sacred vocation. I SHALL STAY MARRIED TO MY COUNTRY.”
(from newsdotopsdotgovdotph)
hvrds on Wed, 23rd May 2007 10:20 am
Bubble, Bubble, Bubble everywhere.
Is there such a thing as a voting bubble?
“We have actually now bubbles everywhere,” Marc Faber, who oversees $300 million in assets at Marc Faber Ltd., told Bloomberg News in Zurich on May 21. “We have bubbles in real estate, in equities, in bonds, in commodities, in art prices and totally useless collectibles. So, this bubble is huge and includes just about any asset in the world.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/newspid=20601039&sid=aCsu36LXqFHU&refer=home
Shaman of Malilipot on Wed, 23rd May 2007 11:59 am
If some people think that the desire for Gloria’s impeachment is a futile dream, thinking that political instability (spawned by questions of Gloria’s legitimacy) will just fade away is a pipe dream.
Unless Gloria goes through the constitutional process of proving to the nation that she is legitimate by putting a closure to the “Hello Garci” controversy, political instability will continue.
As Vic has said, the problem is the partial breakdown of the rule of law. And part of this breakdown is the Administration lawmakers’ mockery of the constitutional process of impeachment. Political stability and economic development are therefore held hostage by misguided efforts to protect the personal interests of one person.
Gloria is not the messiah that some people believe she is. Gloria is not worth the sacrifice of the nation’s welfare.
Shaman of Malilipot on Wed, 23rd May 2007 12:24 pm
Baycas, I’m always wary about people who hear the “voice of God”, Gloria included. There are plenty of them in the mental asylum.
Have you noticed:
1. how God prominently figured in Gloria’s decision on December 30, 2002 by her own tedious account?
2. how Gloria cut out God’s involvement completely when she said on October 4, 2003 that, “I made a decision last December 30 by myself”?
What self-respecting nation can accept a barefaced liar for a President?
manuelbuencamino on Wed, 23rd May 2007 1:49 pm
Excellent post baycas
lee on Wed, 23rd May 2007 4:00 pm
yes! nawala na rin ang mga Atienza. Not only did this fella bastardized Manila’s last heritage by replacing peidra stones into mall-like laminated floors.(Aba, marami ring nadudulas dyan ah!), he is also planning to turn aroceros park into a commercial establishment. Baka pag tumagal-tagal pa magkakaroon na ng Intramuros mall.
Ayan ang napala ng mga yan (Atienza, Pineda, Pacquiao, Villafuerte). Kasisipsip niyo.
ay_naku on Wed, 23rd May 2007 4:25 pm
Uhm, not true. Among the post-Marcos presidents, GMA is BY FAR the most hated. In fact, she’s the ONLY ONE who has received negative net satisfaction ratings, and her net ratings from the people have been consistently negative for over 2 years now.
http://www.sws.org.ph/pr070313.htm
And it’s not like she’s is suffering “calumny and opprobrium” for no reason. She is reviled for many many valid reasons, many of which have been discussed here before (some of which I repeated in my comment above.)
cvj on Wed, 23rd May 2007 4:37 pm
To build on Ay_naku’s point, one thing unique about GMA is that, aside from Bencard, she has no loyalists to speak of. And even he is not willing to take a bullet for her. The rest like Jude and Equilibrium are there only because they perceive her to have outsmarted her foes, which means their loyalty will only last until the day she loses power.
UP n student on Wed, 23rd May 2007 9:12 pm
cvj: your point is a good endorsement to have Lacson as next President. The Trillaneses and the Ebdanes of this world always have their police- or military-buddies loyal to them, loyal enough to take a bullet.
rego on Wed, 23rd May 2007 10:50 pm
I totally agree Bencard. Unlike you I am looking at the future. I have been thinking lately about the next election where, Loren, Lacson, Villar are the front runners. I was wondering how the peopel in this blog, who love them now so much now, will view them once any of them become the next president. I think it will be very interesting future development.
UP n student on Thu, 24th May 2007 12:44 am
On loyalty among military and police….. Loyal enough to take a bullet… but probably more inclined to deliver a bullet since that is part of their training, after all.
Bencard on Thu, 24th May 2007 1:37 am
cvj, i don’t have to take a bullet to show my respect and support for my president, our president. besides, who else will do the shooting but the rogue elements of our society? I told you once before and I’ll say it again, no citizen (myself included) worth his salt should refuse to give up his life in defense of his country, its Constitution and its the constituted authorities.
how about you, cvj, who would you take a bullet for? Joma Sison? Ka Roger? Or is it Lacson, Legarda, or Villar, as Rego suggests?
cvj on Thu, 24th May 2007 1:43 am
Bencard, at one point i would have been willing to take a bullet for GMA.
xavier on Thu, 24th May 2007 2:41 am
re-Mike Valarde gives unsolicited advice… don’t revive efforts to change the system of government.
the question is can a diferent system change man’s behaviour? to many it can not but i say, YES IT CAN.
consider the following:
100 employees puched-in their daily time card, 10 were discreet cheaters.
IN came the priest who preaches morality at the office as a result 5 former cheaters became honest punchers, still weve left with 5 recalcitrant cheaters.
now came the finger scan that resulted in 99% “honest” punchers. why 99% ? because there is this one employee who is a hardened punch card cheater who found a way to cheat.
the lesson here- it is hard to change the hearts of men, weve been doing that from the biblical times up to our generation. but devising a system can reform a person’s behaviour, whether he like it or not. but that system should be moral and ethical to begin with. and technology should keep a pace ahead with the technology of fraud and /or theft.
same is true with our present presidential/bicameral form of government- parliamentary/unicameral can be the better system. a system can not change our hearts, but it can alter our behaviour.
UP n student on Thu, 24th May 2007 10:12 am
xavier: Some criticisms of parliamentary form, as follows:
One main criticism of many parliamentary systems is that the head of government is in almost all cases not directly voted on. Occasionally, an electorate will be surprised just by who is elevated to the premiership. In a presidential system, the president is usually chosen directly by the electorate, or by a set of electors directly chosen by the people, separate from the legislature. However, in a parliamentary system the prime minister is elected by the legislature, often under the strong influence of the party leadership. Thus, a party’s candidate for the head of government is usually known before the election, possibly making the election as much about the person as the party behind him or her.
Another major criticism of the parliamentary system lies precisely in its purported advantage: that there is no truly independent body to oppose and veto legislation passed by the parliament, and therefore no substantial check on legislative power. Conversely, because of the lack of inherent separation of powers, some believe that a parliamentary system can place too much power in the executive entity, leading to the feeling that the legislature or judiciary have little scope to administer checks or balances on the executive.
In the United Kingdom, the prime minister is traditionally thought of as the “first among equals” of the cabinet. It has been alleged in The Economist and by a former UK Member of Parliament Graham Allen that the prime minister’s power has grown so much in recent years that he or she is now dominant over the government and that collegiality is no more. Rather than being “first among equals,” the modern British prime minister is “like the moon among the stars,” as The Economist once put it. “Instead of a healthy balance we have an executive [the prime minister] who stands like an 800 lb. gorilla alongside a wizened legislature and judiciary.” (Allen, 12)
Although it is possible to have a powerful prime minister, as Britain has, or even a dominant party system, as Japan has, parliamentary systems are also sometimes unstable. Critics point to Israel, Italy, the French Fourth Republic, and Weimar Germany as examples of parliamentary systems where unstable coalitions, demanding minority parties, no confidence votes, and threats of no confidence votes, make or have made effective governance impossible.
ay_naku on Fri, 25th May 2007 5:18 am
There should be at least a 4th condition added to Randy David’s list: STOP the political killings.
How many more dead bodies until 2010?
GMA up to 2010? At what cost to the nation? Can we survive with our institutions (and self-respect as a people) intact? O irreversible damage na by then?