Club 56
May 17, 2007 by mlq3
Filed under Daily Dose
The President claims a victory because she retains control of the House. But this is a bogus claim, because it is not, by any means, an achievement. In Inquirer Current you can look at past election results and what we can conclude from them.
The data I put up there, is attached here, too: it has House (1907 onwards) and Senate (1941 onwards) results. It covers basically every election from 1907 to 2004.
But let me go into why I say the president can’t claim an achievement in holding on to the House. The reason is, it’s par for the course, and has always been the case. No administration since 1935 has ever lost the House of Representatives in an election, although presidents have lost elections even though their parties held on to the House (the new president would then quickly turn a minority into a majority). That is simply the nature of the House and races on the local level.
Which is why, until this president came along, no previous president to my knowledge, made a fetish of proclaiming control of the House. You do not proclaim the virtues of the unremarkable. And this is why presidents and the public always focused on the senate as the bellweather of the political health of an administration.
In the same Bandila report last night where they exposed the root cause of the 12-0 sweep claimed for Team Unity in Maguindanao (the governor offered a bounty of 1 million pesos for every mayor able to deliver 12-0), the reporters mentioned something called “Club 56.” Apparently, that’s 56 municipalities that the President’s political operators credit for securing them victory in 2004. Tonypet Albano was quick to brandish a list of these municipalities, saying they were all going to produce a 12-0 sweep for Team Unity in the coming days. See Newsbreak and Istambay sa Mindanao for what foreign observers had to say.
Mga Diskurso ni Doy has a good rundown of the implications of the Palace brag about Maguindanao: he says “dagdag-bawas” has been replaced with “dagdag-dagdag”:
Dahil bistado na ang iskimang “dagdag-bawas†na pinasikat ng “hello Garci controversy, may bagong innovation ng pandarayang ipinatutupad ang administrasyon kasabwat ang ilang opisyal ng Comelec at sindikatong mga operador, ang DAGDAG-DAGDAG special Ops. Isang iskimang kay daling isagawa’t hindi gaanong halata kung ikukumpara sa Dagdag-Bawas.
Base sa proseso ng halalan, Una; ang boto ng mamamayan ay unang bibilangin ng Board of Election Inspector (BEI) sa prisinto o sa mga polling place. Panglawa; ang resulta ng bilangan ay nakasulat o nakadokumento sa Election Return (ER) kung saan sinusumite ito upang icamvass sa municipal-city canvasser. Pangatlo; ang resulta sa munisipyo-city canvassing ay ilalagay, isusulat at isusuma sa Certificte of Canvass (COC). Pang-apat; ipapasa o ifoforward ang COC sa Provincial Canvasser na kung saan isusuma ito’t ilalagay sa Provincial Certificate of Canvass (PCOC). Panglima; ipapadala ang PCOC sa PICC (Phil International Convention Center, sa Cultural Center sa Manila) upang isagawa ang huling pagsusuma, ang National Canvassing kung saan bibilangin ang labanan sa Senatoriable at Party List.
Saan maaaring makapenetrate ang DAGDAG-DAGDAG? Dahil sa dami at tindi ng pagbabantay ng poll watchers, mahihirapang isagawa ito sa presinto. Nasa munisipyo’t probinsya o nasa pangalawa hanggang pang-apat isasagwa ang DAGDAG-DAGDAG ops. Tulad din ng dagdag-bawas, ang Election Return pa rin ang siyang pupuntiryahin. Ang kaibhan lang, kung dati rati’y may tinatapyas na boto sa kalaban, sa ngayo’y walang babawasang boto ng mga kandidato (opposition), bagkus magdadagdag na lamang (additional digit o pagdiskrungka ng numero) ng boto sa mga kandidato, specially sa mg administration candidates sa Senate, Party List at Local candidates.
Doy’s talking about what I call the making of the sausage in my column for today, The verdict.
The Inquirer editorial dissects the Comelec’s ordering a stop to media counts, and explains why media counts and exit polls are valuable -and why attacking them makes no sense for this particular administration:
Tourism Secretary Joseph Ace Durano, predicted that administration candidates will win six to eight seats. “Just wait till the Visayas and Mindanao votes start coming in,” he said.
Durano was obviously referring to the “command votes” that the administration expects to be delivered by its local candidates, hundreds of whom either faced only token opposition or ran unopposed. But even that vaunted vote-delivery machine seems to have broken down in some places, like Iloilo, Leyte and Eastern Samar, where the promised 12-0 result for Team Unity seems to be vanishing.
To the opposition, Durano’s statement carried an ominous ring. For it was in Mindanao where the opposition believed massive cheating happened in favor of Ms Arroyo in 2004, as the “Hello Garci†tapes tended to show. Thus, where the opposition once saw the polls and quick count as part of an elaborate plot to camouflage the cheating in 2004, now it considers it as some kind of shield against massive fraud. With the polls and the quick counts invariably indicating that the Genuine Opposition would win at least six seats, opposition leaders now believe it would be very difficult for the administration to reverse the trend by cheating.
The irony in this running debate, however, is that by questioning the credibility of surveys and quick counts, the administration is cutting off one argument on which it has anchored its defense of the President against charges she stole the presidency: The surveys showed she would win.
In light of the above, even Cebu doesn’t seem to be delivering:
See also the number-crunching by The Journal of the Jester-in-Exile and Atheista.net.
A very good explanation as to why media counts are harmless comes from Not Yet Ready:
What I am pointing here, is that media counts are accurate if you will just look at the Magic 15 and not 12. It is not questionable. With the reasons at the top, one can say that media has played its role to give information to the people PARTIALLY. It may not be a fact, but at least it is accurate. Besides, media are keep saying that the numbers they have are partial and unofficial, well, there’s the reminder.
With the slow counting and canvassing we have here in the Philippines during elections, the Palace should actually thank the media for giving the people accurate information and an idea of the results that takes a month or so before it may be released.
The question here is not the media counts but the Comelec’s order to the networks to submit to them where they got the numbers on their media counts. If it is not another administration trick, why didn’t the Comelec use their commonsense that these counts are unofficial and partial and that media, particularly the ABS-CBN and GMA 7, has been doing these media counts even during the 2004 elections? This is just another proof, after their ruling on Joselito Cayetano’s candidacy, that Comelec has all along been a “puppet†of the administration and we people are all being tricked by the said “generally peaceful elections†we had.
And HusBy and kevin_033054 offer their views, too, as to the motivations behind the Comelec order (and why the Palace is concerned, see blue_warlock).
The coming days are crucial, because the resources of candidates to keep their watchers fed and on the clock are running out; people are simply exhausted, too. This weekend is when the main mischief begins. Meanwhile, Tony Abaya points out what he thinks is the good news, this early on, from the elections.
Tony Lopez has an interesting critique of NAMFREL; Julius Fortuna suggests the next battle -to abolish the Senate- has begun, and that Finance Secretary Teves is facing attempts to kick him out of the cabinet before Congress reconvenes.
Technorati Tags: elections, media, philippines, politics, president, Senate, society, surveys
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benign0 on Thu, 17th May 2007 2:35 pm
Interesting what Tony Abaya speculates about in Trillanes’s ascent.
Certainly he had good name recall (how many candidates were ex-rebel jailbirds?).
But then that doesn’t really differentiate him from that other galloping-in-from-the-horizon rebel with a dubious cause — Gringo Honasan.
As is the case even here — we are trying to put university-grade analysis on what is nothing more than a case of a Wowowee-style winning over of the Pinoy mind. Remeber that mind? The one that voted a drunkard-womaniser into the top office of the land?
As I mentioned in a previous post, this is the kind of thinking that really determines election outcomes in the Philippines:
“OK lang, sige lang sila. But one thing sure is that God above is letting Trillanes win for a more divine purpose, and let them try go against it, and the wrath of heaven will be upon them.”
Excerpt from a blog comment from Ellen Tordesillas:
http://www.ellentordesillas.com/?p=1198#comments
To try to see any further than that microcosm of Pinoy voters’ thinking is a futile endeavour.
jude on Thu, 17th May 2007 3:55 pm
Mr. Quezon is being deliberately dodgy. After stating that the midterm elections are a referendum on the administration, he says that winning ¾ of the seats in Congress is but par for the course. He also ignores the fact that ¾ of the local officials who will be elected are affiliated, in some way or another, with the administration. Mr. Quezon just cannot accept the fact that he and his armchair strategists have been stumbling in their assumptions and analyses for the past 2 years. Hence, he tries to fall back on historical sleight of hand, to try to minimize the fact that he has egg on his face and that his “referendum†theory has backfired on him.
Even assuming that it were true that past administrations retained the majority during midterm elections, such a dominating majority would not be possible if discontent were as widespread, as Mr. Quezon would want the world to believe.
It was all a grand show and the administration orchestrated it with skill and precision. There were amusing sideshows featuring Fr. Ed Panlilio, Manny Pacquiao, Garci, Binay and others, which took the steam away from the very torrid atmosphere. In the end, it only delivered the message that democracy is alive and well in the Philippines.
Mr. Quezon, after realizing that he has fallen flat on his face as the results of local and congressional elections keep piling up, will later once again harp on the senate race to conjure the image he has single-mindedly and deceptively wanted to convey.
But even the senate race may be just a pyrrhic victory for the opposition. Even as the senate stands to be consigned to the dust bin, with 4 administration candidates in the winning circle, that could hardly be called a shut out against the administration. And of the other winning candidates, at least 3 of them are severely compromised and can hardly be called rabid oppositionists. So, even with a worst case scenario, if the “stealth†oppositionists are included, the administration actually carries a 7-5 scorecard in its favor. Hardly the much ballyhooed rejection that Mr. Quezon had hoped for.
And the situation can only get better for the administration as more results trickle in, but no need to get into that. As it is, the massive rejection that the opposition had hoped for hasn’t matereialized. And this administration will continue to reign, at least until 2010. Until then, Mr. Quezon and his armchair tacticians can grumble and plot away all they want. The people have spoken!
mlq3 on Thu, 17th May 2007 4:56 pm
jude,
there is a time and a place for everything. the verdict of the public on a sitting administration is in terms of the senate. this has always been the case. the nature of a senatorial midterm (or any senate election since each has had a slate supported by the incumbent)
1. See “Ins and Outs of the Philippines,” James J. Dalton, Far Eastern Survey, Vol. 21, No. 12 (July 30, 1952) pp. 117-123:
1947, ruling LP won 78% of 8,126 local and provincial offices.
1949, “despite the existence of widespread dissatisfaction with the government in power,” and maintained control of Congress and local government.
1951, the only senatorial election totally lost by a president’s senatorial slate, and a disastrous year for the ruling LP, the LP retained 60% of elective seats in municipalities and retained the House: although 23 of 45 gubernatorial posts went to the NP. the article says the abolition of bloc voting which so harmed the LP in the senate was because of Sen. Pres. Avelino’s earlier rebellion against Quirino. And ironically, Quirino had supported efforts at redeeming the elections (Magsaysay had promised the cleanest polls after the 1949 disaster).
2. Dapen Liang’s “Philippine Parties and Politics” (1970, The Gladstone Company):
Under Magsaysay, the NP controlled 50 out 54 governorships; in 1959, Garcia’s mid-term, NP control 30 out of 54 governorships -solid control, still, when you add continued House & Senate control; in 1961, when the NP lost both the presidency and the Senate, as the administration party it captured 74 out of 104 seats in the House. In 1963, Macapagal got a 4-4 split in the Senate, retained the House and local governments, but faced an impeachment attempt the next year (and a low batting average of only 34 approved bills out of the 80 bills he submitted to Congress, despite the opposition NP being essentially leaderless at the time)
.
The point is that dissatisfaction was extremely widespread in 1951 and not even then could the ruling LP be dislodged locally. The changes would take place in tandem with changes in the presidency in 1953, 1961 and 1965. Even the rejection of Marcos in the 1971 polls didn’t affect the NP’s control of local governments which then transformed into the KBL’s control during martial law. So control is very much to be expected, whatever the public feels, because the time for realignment, locally, is during a presidential election, not in between.
As for a shutout, if the present results hold firm, it’s not a complete defeat for the administration, and definitely not a repeat of the 1951 and 1971 disasters, but then that’s because GMA has a cabinet very different from what Quirino had to endure with Magsaysay vowing clean elections in that year, and there was no grenade blast as in 1971 to become a rallying cry.
At the end of the day, it’s how the public will read the results, whatever the true colors of the winning candidates. For that reading, the public’s well-versed and has a long wealth of experience to show that the senate’s always a referendum on the incumbent.
Whether the people themselves will believe they’ve spoken, however, depends on the official results of the counting.
DJB on Thu, 17th May 2007 5:06 pm
JUDE,
I think the original idea advanced by Christian Monsod and One Voice was that 2007 could serve as an INDIRECT referendum on GMA. But there are several possibilities the People could elect:
(1) both Senate and House dominated by Admin
(2) both Senate and House dominated by Opposition
(3) Senate dominated by Admin, House dominated by Opposition
(4) Senate dominated by Opposition, House dominated by Admin
Case (1) gives the Palace an unequivocal mandate in the indirect referendum. People want GMA to finish the rest of her term.
Case (2) gives the Opposition an unequivocal mandate to end GMA’s term, possibly by outright impeachment, conviction and removal from office.
Case (3) gives the Palace an equivcoal mandate in the indirect referendum because even if the House impeaches her, there is no way to convict or remove her, which would mean that such a House impeachment would be suicidal for its proponents when done when the Senate is controlled by the Palace. But it does not look like this is the message the people are sending, indirectly.
Case (4) is where the Senate is unequivocally controlled by the Opposition with at least a 2/3 majority (enough to convict in an impeachment trial) and the House Majority is controlled by the President.
Now it becomes an issue of how big that House Majority actually is, because impeachment will only require a one third Minority for it to go to the Senate.
I believe the main reason such a one third minority did not coalesce in 2005 and 2006 was simply that there was no UNEQUIVOCAL control of the Senate by the Opposition, nor any certainty of conviction.
What will be different in July, 2007 is that there will in fact be a 2/3 Opposition Majority in the Senate, if the SWS and/or Pulse Asia Exit Polls are right in the admin opposition split.
I haven’t been watching the “news trickling in” about the House Races. But how do we know there aren’t 80 in that bunch who will see the plain arithmetic and awesome implications of a Hanging Senate justing waiting there…
Jon Mariano on Thu, 17th May 2007 5:30 pm
I hope that there will be at least 80 elected congressmen that will vote for impeachment of Gloria Arroyo.
Francis on Thu, 17th May 2007 5:44 pm
The house will always be owned by the Administration because of Pork Barrel.
Remove it and we will see more competition for the congressional seat.
benign0 on Thu, 17th May 2007 5:47 pm
Jon Mariano: And then what? If these bozos succeed in removing Arroyo, what then?
Because this whole expensive exercise was all about just that (all the other issues — if any — took a back seat to it), all we get is an ideological vacuum once Arroyo is gone.
We’re back to Square One. The whole exercise of spinning vacuous arguments into yet another galvanising slogan for the next “united” opposition then gets started again.
Kawawa nga naman talaga ang Pinoy.
cvj on Thu, 17th May 2007 6:26 pm
I see that Jude is attempting to refine the Admin’s spin. Whereas yesterday, he reeked of Benign0-esque contempt for the voters…
…this time around he has chosen to conceal this attitude and instead coat his message with more lofty ideals:
Of course, it only works if he can somehow reconcile what he said about creating the illusion of choice with his assertion of democracy being alive and well. Good thing he has Bencard to fall back on.
mlq3 on Thu, 17th May 2007 6:31 pm
note to self: re: maguindanao
inquirer.net electoral map lists no. of voters at 289,029
Sun-Star reports ff:
http://sunstar.com.ph/specials/election/?p=595
“From 275,572 registered voters in 2004, the number of voters in this year’s elections went up by more than 43 percent or to 396,772.”
does this mean more voted in maguindanao than were registered???
note rg cruz report from marawi also:
http://www.rgcruz.com/?p=409
manuelbuencamino on Thu, 17th May 2007 6:31 pm
Jude,
a little intellectual honesty is called for here. The Makati battle was no side show. The Arroyo couple actually believed they had a one-two punch with Lapid and Genuino.They also thought they had a winner in Pacquiao. So cut the crap.
“It was all a grand show and the administration orchestrated it with skill and precision.”
That line reminds me of a little boy who got badly beaten in a fight but who kept telling everybody – “I didn’t lose. I broke the other guy’s fist with my face!”
“He also ignores the fact that ¾ of the local officials who will be elected are affiliated”
Yes but they are at each other’s throats for control of Congress and local elective positions. Gloria is a lame duck and lame ducks are sitting ducks. The rainbow coalition will have a difficult time staying together as 2010 approaches. Of course, the way to keep them under Gloria’s skirt is through charter change. But the question will be – who’s version? JDV’s or Gloria’s? And you don’t think Gloria’s skirt will be ruffled with Kampi and Lakas in a brawl underneath her skirt?
The way to look at local races is to score which were won by Kampi and which went to Lakas in head to head contests. You don’t claim victory against the opposition in areas where they didn’t even field a candidate.
Another thing you should score is how many incumbent pro impeachment legislators were reelected?
With all the resources she put behind her candidates, with all the dressed up economic data she was advertising through advertorials by pseudo economists like alex maggot, with all the pre-election shenanigans of Bunye, and the fielding of troops in over half the country I am surprised Gloria didn’t completely rout the GO slate and dominate races where sshe fielded handpicked candidates against well known opposition figures.
Jude, once again – I broke his fist with my face is the wrong spin. It makes you look like an amateur. Try another tack.
cocoy on Thu, 17th May 2007 7:20 pm
*nods in agreement with manuelbuencamino*
are there figures out already which seats went to kampi and which went to lakas? as you’ve mentioned that really would be interesting to know especially in putting the pieces together and getting an idea as to where the wind is really blowing.
cheers.
mlq3 on Thu, 17th May 2007 7:22 pm
cocoy:
here:
http://eleksyon2007a.inquirer.net/localtally.htm
rego on Thu, 17th May 2007 7:25 pm
I like that Tony Abayas column. Everything is not really bad in the just concluded election. There are just as many positive things that we can get from it like the thing that Tony has enumerated. And can be use to make us move forward.
I think both side opposition and admin did not totally win and did not completely lose. Opposition clearly won some in the senate. But since it is not 12-0 , still they did not totally win. Gloria did not totally got what she wants in house either. Meron pa rin naman mag opposition na nanalo will be bothering her from time to time. Which to me is just alright.
Ang mahirap lang kasi, both side wanted an absolute win for them and a humiliating loss for there opponent.
There is really one thing that I wanted really see after these election. That all those charges of cheating and violation of election law can be substantiated and brought to court.
UPn student on Thu, 17th May 2007 8:12 pm
Honasan at #13… lucky the country if he drops to #15 or lower.
UPn student on Thu, 17th May 2007 8:18 pm
Geography lessons needed :
Namfrel: ‘We mistook La Union for Maguindanao’
Posted May 17, 2007 19:35:00(Mla Time)
INQUIRER.net
Thea Alberto
MANILA, Philippines — The National Movement for Free Elections (Namfrel) on Thursday said the reported 12-0 TEAM Unity sweep of Maguindanao was an error caused by tabulators mistaking the northern Luzon province of La Union for the Mindanao province.
mlq3 on Thu, 17th May 2007 8:19 pm
rego, even before the election the positive signs were there, see marites vitug’s article even before the elections:
http://www.pubtrust.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3386&Itemid=88889004
Mita on Thu, 17th May 2007 10:25 pm
there’s always the positive.
it’s just lately, some people just seem to want to focus on the doom and gloom – screaming for blood and guts. we forget patience, self-restraint, hard work coupled with reason and careful planning can get us more results than screaming and ranting.
so please, stop with the drama already and let’s all get to work on moving our country forward. but if this senate doesn’t behave itself….hrrrmmmppph!
UPn student on Thu, 17th May 2007 10:29 pm
Marites Vitug repeats the line :”…But government critics say that President Arroyo may yet go for a revision of the Constitution …push for a unicameral parliament. They say this will enable her to run for the new parliament and grant her immunity should cases be filed against her after 2010.”
My understanding is that the rules of evidence for impeachment is more relaxed than the rules of evidence in the judicial system. This tells me “impeach now”, because you probably won’t be able to convict later.
manuelbuencamino on Thu, 17th May 2007 10:31 pm
Mita,
“A few screams evoke in us deep anxiety and a desire to help. Hours of screaming without end lead us only to wish that the screamer would shut up.†– Bruno Bettleheim, child psychologist and Nazi concentration camp survivor
And that’s the problem.
You tend to forget what brought about the screaming in the first place.
jonphil on Thu, 17th May 2007 10:32 pm
Been trying to post this in other thread – it would show. Let me try here:
I wanna bet a million dollars to those who voted for trillanes to prove that da pilipins will be rid of corruption (or even reduced by half) after his term.
And I wanna bet another million dollars that trillanes will be millions richer after his term.
Have we not learned from rambo gringo?
Both these cowards who used government troops/armaments suckered many million pinoys by believing in the statements they made.
With these outcome and precedence, expect more mutineers and coups de etat to befall our chaotic country. All they will shout is the same slogans their idols gringo/trillanes had in their scripts.
How many more pinoys will be fooled by these unpatriotic individuals? Hope you would have learned your lessons then. Just my piece and peace to all, folks.
jonphil on Thu, 17th May 2007 10:34 pm
Been trying to post this in other thread – it wouldn’t show. Let me try here: (it should read this way)
UPn student on Thu, 17th May 2007 10:49 pm
ManuelB: if you’ve raised a son, you’d know it’s the reverse. Not that:
“A few screams evoke in us deep anxiety and a desire to help. Hours of screaming without end lead us only to wish that the screamer would shut up.â€
The parent will hear, but won’t rush, with the first whimpers and cries. The parent then checks, and will let the child cry if the parent concludes “nothing wrong”. There is a period of “screamer, shut up!!!” To be followed by “… wait, this is going too long, something may really be wrong” and a phone call to the pediatrician.
cocoy on Thu, 17th May 2007 10:58 pm
thanks @ mlq3, got the link!
kimosabe27 on Thu, 17th May 2007 11:14 pm
Righteous pwnage! It doesn’t matter whether Gloria takes control of the local levels, hell she can have Visayas, Mindanao and the countrysides and be buddies with Joma and his delusion of encircling the cities from without. Maguindanao is as relevant as Mars and the little green men. The thing here is that her center of gravity is compromised, she lost an ally in Manila and Makati remains in the hands of an arch nemesis. And with Escudero and Trillianes on the upper house, the national stage will be clusterbombed with attacks on her legitimacy. I anticipate the sweet smell of vitriol in the Senate. Yup, Drilon’s Senate was a doozy, Gloria’s a** will be sore with revengef*** coming from all sides. Man I’m getting a boner.
Jon Mariano on Thu, 17th May 2007 11:25 pm
If Gloria Arroyo is impeached then we can move on.
benj on Thu, 17th May 2007 11:33 pm
With almost all precincts reporting, it’s 1-9-2 for the Genuine Opposition with Angara as the lone TU “winner” in Zamboanga.
With Noli de Castro! Yay!
UPn student on Thu, 17th May 2007 11:47 pm
Might as well learn some new vocabulary as the GMA-impeachment jibber-jabber continues:
flagitious \fluh-JISH-uhs\, adjective:
1. Disgracefully or shamefully criminal; grossly wicked; scandalous; — said of acts, crimes, etc.
2. Guilty of enormous crimes; corrupt; profligate; — said of persons.
3. Characterized by enormous crimes or scandalous vices; as, “flagitious times.”
However flagitious may be the crime of conspiring to subvert by force the government of our country, such conspiracy is not treason.
– Ex parte Bollman & Swartwout, 4 Cranch 126 (1807)
The Grinch, a nefarious, flagitious, sly, nasty, troublesome, bad-tempered, intolerant and foul-smelling character who, for reasons never fully explained, lives in a cave above the town.
– Robin Greer, “Carrey Christmas”, News Letter, December 1, 2000
These men were reported to be heretics . . . , seducers of youth, and men of flagitious life.
– Isaac Taylor, History of the World
The Ca t on Thu, 17th May 2007 11:56 pm
Really. Trust me. Those elected opposition senators would not work for that.
The Ca t on Fri, 18th May 2007 12:04 am
Very good observation. Only a corporate strategist can understand the grand plan of the administration.
Others would not see this from their tumba-tumba chair.
manuelbuencamino on Fri, 18th May 2007 12:20 am
Cat,
“It was all a grand show and the administration orchestrated it with skill and precision. There were amusing sideshows featuring Fr. Ed Panlilio, Manny Pacquiao, Garci, Binay and others, which took the steam away from the very torrid atmosphere.”
“Very good observation. Only a corporate strategist can understand the grand plan of the administration.
Others would not see this from their tumba-tumba chair”.
Look Ma, I broke his fist with my face!
manuelbuencamino on Fri, 18th May 2007 12:22 am
Cat,
Said the dying cowboy to the man who just shot him – “Ha! I got you were I want you. Now you’re out of bullets!”
Jon Mariano on Fri, 18th May 2007 12:42 am
Erap was a learning experience, Gloria is another, Noli will be another if ever.
As I have said in the other thread, people have learned Erap’s lesson. Goma, Cesar, Boyet de Leon, manny Pacquiao lost.
ay_naku on Fri, 18th May 2007 12:49 am
Mr. Jude is also being deliberately dodgy here as well. Sobrang pilit na yung gustong palabasin, counting the independents and and the “non-rabid oppositionists” (who are they?) in favor the administration. Huh? Actually, baliktad pa nga dapat eh. The rabid pro-GMA senatorial candidates (Pichay, Defensor, Singson) aren’t in the winners circle despite massive spending, but instead it’s Joker Arroyo (a well-known GMA critic) and Angara (a moderate?) who have made it. And independent Pangilinan has asked for GMA’s resignation before. Really Jude, sobrang pilit yung analysis mo dito.
Fact is, surver after survey shows that GMA continues to be a very unpopular president, with negative net satisfaction ratings for over 2 years now (see SWS website for details.) It’s a fact too that a minority of the population still continue to support her, or at least despise the opposition as much as they despise her. Couple that residual support (and apathy) with the credible perception that GMA is willing to use all the tools at her disposal (and even those that aren’t hers legally) to stay in power and the result is: continued political stalemate.
cvj on Fri, 18th May 2007 1:57 am
Jon M, i agree, and it appears that the masa are learning their lesson faster than certain segments of the middle and upper classes who are content to put up with a paradigm of a politics devoid of any moral sense. They then wonder why someone like Trillanes is able to such gather such a great deal of support.
camry on Fri, 18th May 2007 2:28 am
Manny Pacquiao was only used by politicians with too much self serving interests. I hope he has learned his lessons. He should have just remain as a boxing figure.
The Ca t on Fri, 18th May 2007 2:53 am
You are not a tactician so all you see is what is obvious.
Kaya naman lahat ng mga expectation ninyo wala.
Wanna bet, there is no impeachment?
watchful eye on Fri, 18th May 2007 3:30 am
Jude, once again – I broke his fist with my face is the wrong spin. It makes you look like an amateur. Try another tack. – mb
mb,
A very impressive left-cross over right to a post-election “Hey Jude and make it better†scrub op. Mukhang kasama sa budget.
Na na na na na na na na na yay.
territorialregimen on Fri, 18th May 2007 3:31 am
The cat: “Wanna bet, there is no impeachment?”
Obviously you can only see, and will only bet on, what is obvious…
manuelbuencamino on Fri, 18th May 2007 3:33 am
Cat,
We’ll get to that later. For now I will gloat.
Atienza,Lapid, Dy, Pacquiao na sa kangkungan na! Yippee! You didn’t make a prediction in any of those races did you?
Let’s see how many of those who voted for the second impeachment will be defeated.
Why oh why are the biggest critics of Gloria doing well while her most rabid lapdogs are ….waiting for the command votes?
“Wanna bet, there is no impeachment?”
Wanna bet your little lame duck offers to reconcile?
realist on Fri, 18th May 2007 4:15 am
12-0 tu sa maguindanao. Doon na lang kaya mamuno si gma. ayos na ayos sana.
Philippine Election 2007: The Miraculous Maguindanao Vote - The Voice of The Filipino - Tingog.com on Fri, 18th May 2007 4:19 am
[...] Manuel also sheds light on the motivation of some of the Mayors, …Bandila report last night where they exposed the root cause of the 12-0 sweep claimed for Team Unity in Maguindanao (the governor offered a bounty of 1 million pesos for every mayor able to deliver 12-0)… [...]
The Ca t on Fri, 18th May 2007 5:22 am
I predicted Lim’s big chance even before the election. Lapid, I did not like him. Pacquiao, I was against his candidacy and I was not his fan when he disowned his son from his mistress. See the archive.
UPn student on Fri, 18th May 2007 6:18 am
AMA-Inquirer appears to have stopped their (media) count. Scared already with neither COMELEC nor anybody else having taken them to court? What do they have lawyers for?
You can’t have freedom of the press if the press is scared.
UPn student on Fri, 18th May 2007 7:01 am
As for Robredo/Naga : “nagueno” reports:
Key highlights of the Liberal tally sheet, in comparison with the two surveys:
Mayor Robredo (76%) and Vice Mayor Bordado’s (71%) winning margins were mostly as predicted by the City Hall survey (74% and 71%, respectively). It also appears half of Leni Robredo’s 4% in the Ateneo survey were transferred to her husband.
Topnotcher incumbent City Councilor John Bongat (with 77% of the total votes cast) again towed the triumphant Team Naga ticket into another sweep. On the other hand, tailender Ma. Elizabeth Lavadia, who is taking her husband Julian, Jr.’s place in the council, has 55% of the total, 24 percentage points higher than 11th placer Ramon Perez’s 21%.
Bucking the ASSRC survey result, which had Villafuerte up by 11 percentage points, former Rep. Sulpicio ‘Cho’ Roco appears to secured the 15% undecideds, posting a slim 12-percentage points edge over incumbent Luis Villafuerte.
But it translates only to a 4,673 cushion, which would be insufficient in overturning Villafuerte’s expected advantage in the nine towns outside Naga, judging from the 2004 election results.
Mita on Fri, 18th May 2007 7:11 am
impeachment pa din? not with the way the lower house is shaping up….Kampi or Lakas, pareho din yon. The opposition still doesn’t have the numbers there.
inodoro ni emilie on Fri, 18th May 2007 7:13 am
jonphil:
“I wanna bet a million dollars to those who voted for trillanes to prove that da pilipins will be rid of corruption (or even reduced by half) after his term.
And I wanna bet another million dollars that trillanes will be millions richer after his term.”
just hand in your million dollars to trillanes so he can use that to sweep corruption, including proclivities for betting.
UPn student on Fri, 18th May 2007 7:18 am
Words from deQuiros. [I am sure he does not mind that I disregarded his copyright.]
—-
But if by chance, or by this country waking up, Charter change should be stopped the way it was stopped last year, then I think martial law, or its equivalent, will not be beyond the contemplation of the current occupant of Malacañang.
One thing I am not fuzzy about. That is, whether the one or the other, whether we go in the direction of Charter change or (formal) martial law, we are going to see this country trampled by the hooves of iron-fisted rule over the next three years. Both projects require the extirpation of our freedoms along the way. It is happening even as we speak, the runaway killings blazing like a neon sign announcing it. We already have martial rule even without martial law.
Jon Mariano on Fri, 18th May 2007 7:30 am
If there’s not enough votes for impeachment (80 congressmen) then there will be no impeachment, as simple as that.
So who is counting? Madame Arroyo is, and I think she likes what she sees. The Ca t is right although I wish it was otherwise. Gloria really learned from Erap regarding impeachment: to never let it reach the Senate!
As for Trillanes, one senator is not going to make much change in the Senate. It’s like a basketball game that all players need to play together. All I’m asking from him if he wins is to try to usher in change.
If he makes his millions, who cares as long as it’s done over the table? History will judge him too.
benign0 on Fri, 18th May 2007 8:12 am
Jon Mariano: “If Gloria Arroyo is impeached then we can move on”
This is the biggest fantasy of all. Think of this: When we got rid of Marcos, back in 1986 did ANYTHING truly FUNAMENTAL and PROFOUND about the nature of Pinoy society really change?
Look at ourselves right now — we are still the same old intellectually-bankrupt, fiesta-happy, personality-mongering electorate.
There is no longer any semblance of a VISION for our society beyond sending warm bodies overseas so that islander relatives can sit around drinking beer on sidewalks, sip their lattes in Starbucks, and tap text messages into their remittance-funded celphones.
After the dust settles from this latest of dime-a-dozen Fiesta Elections, all we have is the tired old “Cha-Cha” and “Impeachment” debate. Millions of pesos in taxes spent and millions of pesos changing hands, and at the end of all that, this is all we have to show for.
Now that’s a CON far bigger in COST than any other petty snippet of election cheating gossip being brokered by the media and the chattering classes.
Wake up, dudes. All this is just one big ballroom with everyone dancing to the tune of political-speak.
Bencard on Fri, 18th May 2007 8:44 am
even if GO wins 12-0 (before you gloat, this is just hypothetical), what are the prospects for the country?
nothing much that is new. the same inutile senate pre-occupied with self-preservation; same obstructionism to undermine and make GMA look bad lest she be able to annoint a successor of her choice; same privilege speeches of alleged scandals based on gossips and contrived “evidence”; same committee investigation for cheap publicity and grandstanding “in aid of legislation” kuno; same legislation gridlock; same inability to pass the national budget; same inarticulate bench warmers who are present day after day but only physically.
The only conspicuous difference would be that six members (out of 24) from 3 sets of families, and three detainess (with 2 out on bail) would grace the “august” body.
inodoro ni emilie on Fri, 18th May 2007 8:52 am
the maguindanao results, minus the rhetorics of muslim-christian dichotomy, defy local political logic. consider: a senatorial candidate who hails in a particular region is likely to take a prime spot in the election returns, whether pro or anti admin.
the election results across the archipelago reflect the maximum likelihood of electoral preferences (give or take a few measurement error, which of course can be magnified when the machinery begins to grind). no where among the results nationwide show singson ever landing at the top (except perhaps in his own territory), much less make it to the magic 12. thus the maguindanao results, where singson is a total stranger, not only makes for a statistical aberration–it is a political aberration. in statistics, an outlier is often scrutinized with deep suspicion.
that is what comelec ought to do.
on second thought: those wanting a TU sweep ought to consider retiring in maguindanao.
UPn student on Fri, 18th May 2007 9:43 am
Doc Bautista, in his blogsite, mentions that one of the reasons that he lost is where people “….refuse to take our handbills because they were ordered by their religious superiors to toe the church line or face damnation”. Hmmmmmm…
cvj on Fri, 18th May 2007 10:27 am
This election has shown that GMA can threaten her political opponents by anointing him/her as ‘successor of her choice‘.
kimosabe27 on Fri, 18th May 2007 10:50 am
Impeachment is so 2006. Now that we have fresh blood in the Senate, I expect a re-energized opposition and a certain bloodlust to go for the kill. They should take lessons from Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi who are dismantling the GOP/Neocon dreadnought one hearing at a time. Pelosi has the acumen, impeachment is so instant that it is almost a blessing for the perps. You have to savor the moment while the bastards squirm during cross examination.
Patience eventually pays, first it was Rumsfeld, today its Wolfowitz, tomorrow maybe Gonzo. And Dubya, he must be in agony.
Same for Gloria and her henchmen, their evasion from comeuppance can only go far. As a marine sniper once said, “You can run, but you only die tired.”
cvj on Fri, 18th May 2007 11:40 am
I wouldn’t mind if they start with impeaching Abalos.
UPn student on Fri, 18th May 2007 11:56 am
Speaking of Comelec:
Does anybody have any theories on the Garci dagdag-bawas methodology? Was it with EXCEL spreadsheets that got lost? Was it hired programmers goosing the numbers? How many provinces were affected? Did any senator lose because of the Garci?
cvj on Fri, 18th May 2007 12:42 pm
UPn Student, from the Hello Garci tapes, it seemed to involve a lot of coordination between the national level where Gloria Arroyo’s dictates her general requirements (i.e. ‘it cannot be less than 1M‘) and specific instructions (e.g. ‘yung dagdag, yung dagdag‘). The local level is where the tasks are carried out. The tapes reveal that operations were conducted in Mindanao, specifically the ARMM and involved the military (including Esperon) and Comelec staff. It also involved getting the sympathies of the local NAMFREL specifically the Municipal COC’s. As for Senators who may have been helped, Barbers’ name was mentioned in the tapes but he still lost. I suppose spreadsheets like excel are involved but more in the planning and private monitoring stages. The focus would have been on the election documents themselves, i.e. those that Pangilinan and Gonzalez ‘noted’.
baycas on Fri, 18th May 2007 1:35 pm
test
baycas on Fri, 18th May 2007 1:40 pm
jm & cvj,
please visit Philippine Entertainment Portal:
wwwdotpepdotph/blogs/pepeye/?p=28…
voters’ enlightened choice (re: actors et al) may still be a work in progress.
Jon Mariano on Fri, 18th May 2007 3:35 pm
CVJ, you and Abalos are on entirely different planes. You’re talking of impeaching him (I agree!), but he is talking of his legacy when he retires in 2010! Apparently in his eyes he’s done a swell job at the Comelec.
cvj on Fri, 18th May 2007 5:46 pm
Jon M, the way he will be remembered by history, if i had his surname, i’d change it.
UPn student on Fri, 18th May 2007 8:01 pm
cvj: a story is that the “Garci” was a con job.
UPn student on Fri, 18th May 2007 8:12 pm
cvj: don’t care much about names nor places; we’re looking for the method; also cost and number of layers in the implementing organization — but after all the time past, not a single detail has come out.
UPn student on Fri, 18th May 2007 8:17 pm
After all the time past, not a single detail has come out, not even a “If I were Garci, this is how i would have done it” expose.
UPn student on Fri, 18th May 2007 9:14 pm
The lack of automation for vote-counting is insane. Once the precinct-level count has been certified, having the numbers roll up to the city-, provincial-, regional- and national level can be done in a manner that provides both speed, integrity, and visibility. Check-digits can be used so that instances where a 182,453 vote-count becomes 82,453 gets flagged automatically.
And if the software and technology is in France or India, then buy. Maski-paps made-in-the-Philippines can be much more expensive than the country can afford.
The Ca t on Fri, 18th May 2007 9:33 pm
Not at this time when the tally board shows 8 Go and we all know that the only platform of GO is impeachment.
Remove those blinders.
ay_naku on Fri, 18th May 2007 11:43 pm
Pagalingan ba manghula ang labanan dito ngayon? Aba’y tawagin na sina Madam Auring et al!
There will most probably no impeachment, but shouldn’t the question be: should there be an impeachment?
Jusme, madali naman manghula. Eh manindigan kaya?
UPn student on Sat, 19th May 2007 12:18 am
ay_naku: the impeachment case should be a lot stronger the day someone publishes the mechanics of Garci dagdag-bawas.
But it looks like them who know the secret are not sharing. It is like the Mission-Impossible line: “I can tell you, but then I’ll have to kill you”.
I’ve also heard along the theme of a schoolteacher-to-grade-one-kid that IT is “… too complicated for the child to understand”.
ay_naku on Sat, 19th May 2007 12:58 am
UPn Student, I think at this point we’re all mostly aware of the mechanics of the Garci dagdag-bawas. We’ve heard the tapes, the explanations from the parties concerned, the Newsbreak (excellent piece of reporting) and other media investigations on the matter, and using our best judgment, we’ve mostly concluded that GMA did indeed cheat big-time. We’re also aware about the extents GMA went to cover her ass — lots of illegal manueverings (and eventually being rebuffed by the SC several times), harassment, bribery, etc.
And yet none of those seemed to matter come impeachment voting time.