The real electoral battle

micketymoc on Wed, 16th May 2007 2:17 pm 



Reading Tony Lopez’ piece, I’m beginning to hear something that we’ll get ad nauseam for the next few weeks – “X is leading, thus the People want Y.” They want change, they don’t want Gloria Arroyo, they don’t want balimbing, etc. etc. It’s a simplistic parody of political analysis that, sadly, crowds out more nuanced thought from other quarters.

Nick on Wed, 16th May 2007 3:33 pm 



Much to the dismay of our pride, International media is not too interested in what is happening in The Philippine election.

I think the only time we are in the news is when there is a natural disaster.

In the grand scheme of international politics, The Philippine election is way below The French Election and the stepping down of Tony Blair.

Anna Nicole Smith ranks higher nowadays in terms of news coverage.

All that said, I still find it a chuckle regarding the offensive being mounted by The Administration, COMELEC, and TU against the unofficial counts being done by the news media…

martin palermo on Wed, 16th May 2007 3:57 pm 



i am a concerned citizen from bicol. i just want to point out to you manila the massive vote-buying and er discrepancies here in camarines norte by administration bets in most of the municipalities and in the provincial races. the incumbent governor and congressman is moving heaven and earth just to win back their seats from the popular oppsoition bets atty. liwayway chato and egay tallado. they are evne using a radio station owned and funded by the provincial government for their own propaganda. the people in these stations are proclaiming that gov. typoco and cong. unico have won already eventhough they have yet to be proclaimed. the admin bets are known to have used vote buying in the municipalities of jose panganiban, mercedes, and labo. the national media needs to hear this story because the admin bets are using their clouts just for their selfish political gain. the people of camarines norte do not want these worthless incumbents to stay any longer because they have brought nothing but shame to this province of ours. the government has lots of graft cases and was once interviewed inside a cockpit by gma 7. please the people need help to kick these people out because they have no business in governance.

Nick on Wed, 16th May 2007 4:11 pm 



Martin,

Is anyone in the opposition, including poll watchers, and other watchdog organizations documenting any of this?

Again, claims are good, but if the opposition really wants to help themselves, it would be good to document these allegations, including, but not limited to, recording the radio announcements, taking statements from witnesses, etc.

If the opposition wants to effect change in this area, then they must work for it…

jake on Wed, 16th May 2007 6:12 pm 



hello mlq3,

any news on who the winners are in aurora province?

thanks!

benj on Wed, 16th May 2007 6:16 pm 



I’m pulling for most of TU but can someone verify the sources for the PPCRV Pampanga Results:

http://ppcrvnamfrel.blogspot.com/2007/05/provincial.html

_1_ARROYO,_JOKER_P.______________232,969_(20.72%)
_2_PANGILINAN,_FRANCIS_N.________227,605_(20.24%)
_3_RECTO,_RALPH_G._______________221,947_(19.74%)
_4_DEFENSOR,_MICHAEL_T.__________209,249_(18.61%)
_5_ANGARA,_EDGARDO_J.____________207,794_(18.48%)
_6_PICHAY,_PROSPERO_JR._A._______207,458_(18.45%)
_7_ZUBIRI,_JUAN_MIGUEL_F.________197,778_(17.59%)
_8_SOTTO,_VICENTE_III_C._________169,182_(15.05%)
_9_VILLAR,_MANUEL_JR._B._________163,858_(14.57%)
10_LEGARDA,_LOREN_B._____________151,197_(13.45%)
11_AQUINO,_BENIGNO_SIMEON_III____150,607_(13.39%)
12_ESCUDERO,__FRANCIS_JOSEPH_G___150,014_(13.34%)

It’s 7-4-1 for TU – the Opposition candidates occupy the last 4 slots.

benj on Wed, 16th May 2007 6:22 pm 



And oh, by the way, the COMELEC just asked the TV networks to halt their quick counts! bwahahahaha. What the hell?!

rego on Wed, 16th May 2007 6:26 pm 



“GMA News reported that in at least two precincts – precinct no. 46-A and 46-B, in the city’s JB Fernadez area, alleged vote padding and shaving did not spare any senatorial candidate – whether they come from Team Unity (TU), Genuine Opposition (GO) and other parties and tickets or running as independents.”

This is what the Cat has been saying all along, Administration and Opposition will both be cheating

rego on Wed, 16th May 2007 6:34 pm 



“Sabas Mabulo is being massively cheated Dato Arroyo in Camarines Sur.” Ellen Tordesillas.

Such a very irresposible statement!

If this is so why not lodge a protest in the COMELEC or Supreme court or what ever is the appropriate venue. Then prove the allegation

Sabas Mabulos did not even claimed to be cheated in his press release. He conceded defeat gracefully and humbly. And admitted that he only won in two towns becuas ehe is ill prepared.

The Ca t on Wed, 16th May 2007 6:36 pm 



If the people does not want GMA, they should have elected straight GO.

Even with the victory of six senators in the Senate, Congress is stil dominated by pro-admin senators and congressmen.

The senators whose terms end in 2010.

Pro-Admin

1. Ramon Revilla, Jr.
2. Miriam Defensor Santiago
3. R. Gordon
4. Lito Lapid
5. Cayetano (sister)
6. R. Biazon

Opposition

1. Estrada
2. Enrile
3. Madrigal
4. Pimentel
5. Alfredo Lim

Alfredo Lim may vacate the position since he’s winning the mayoralty race in Manila (hurray).

So what will be the composition of the Senate?

6 + new 4 TU (this is according to the latest survey and I am sticking to my six)
equals 10

Assuming that Lim leaves…

4 opposition + 6 new senators = 10

Independent ( are you kidding?)

2

That makes 22 senators.

Two vacancies ups for grabs? Which will the fountain bless?

Correct me, if I am wrong.

And while the people are focused on the Senate, what dominate the House of Representatives?

After election, the strong contenders for presidential position in 2010 will become worse enemies.

Nick on Wed, 16th May 2007 6:36 pm 



Benj, the offensive against the tv networks are coming from the collective forces of (Administration, COMELEC, TU)…

Trying to halt these counts instead of focusing on their cheating, ehem, operations…

There’s been cheating all over the place, but it’s too early to tell whether it is massive enough to affect the Senate race.. But some local races have probably been affected..

The Ca t on Wed, 16th May 2007 6:41 pm 



Martin Bautista already conceded. My hats off to the guy.
The excess donations that he received are being turned over to the Gawad Kalinga. We know that some of the candidates who have no choice of winning make money from election.
They do not account for the excess or for the disbursements.

So ask why there are many TRYING-HARD-CANDIDATES joining the
election carnival even if they do not have the chance of winning? That is one legitimate way of raising of funds.

mlq3 on Wed, 16th May 2007 6:45 pm 



hi jake- batang baler is livelbogging the election results in aurora:

http://batangbaler.net/baler/live-blogging-the-election-in-baler/#more-797

mlq3 on Wed, 16th May 2007 6:57 pm 



You can download the data here:

http://www.inquirerbloggers.net/current/2007/05/16/who-is-the-majority/

but please bear in mind the following:

1. no administration, ever, has ever lost the house of representatives, even when presidents lost the presidency, their parties retained control of the house until the new presidents could get congressmen to switch parties (see results for 1953, 1961 and 1965). in fact it could be argued that since 1907, no opposition party has ever controlled the house: the lower house always belongs to the party of the incumbent. in which case it is no achievement for an incumbent to retain control of the house.

2. bloc voting was abolished in 1951 and the last time a president ever secured a total sweep for his candidates in the senate was in 1955, and that was due to the magsaysay phenomenon. no president and no opposition party since has ever managed a complete sweep (see marcos’s strong senate victory in 1967 and the counter-revolt against marcos in 1971). we have only had one normal mid-term election since 1987, and that was in 1995 when FVR did well; we should have had one in 2001 but it became a referendum on edsa dos.

3. If one bothers to do any reading at all on how dagdag-bawas is done, there are two main groups doing it:

a) an administration nerve center directing things from manila
b) local operators who sell votes to the highest bidder, including those who want to counter-act the efforts directed from manila

Jeg on Wed, 16th May 2007 7:08 pm 



Can the COMELEC really stop the media from counting? It’s a press freedom issue. COMELEC can’t order a private entity from counting, can they? There’s always the caveat ‘partial, unofficial’ ek-ek anyway. And this is one time they HAVE to mention their source.

mlq3 on Wed, 16th May 2007 7:09 pm 



rego, i love your faith and confidence in the comelec. and your belief that dato’s people fought a fair fight (though personally i think dato himself conducted himself, from what i heard, with dignity and tact0. but you are right, sabas has spoken:

http://eleksyon2007n.inquirer.net/view.php?article=20070516-66299

and the only thing left to do is prepare for 2010. that way he can thwart the vote-buying and military intimidation (see his statement).

benj on Wed, 16th May 2007 7:11 pm 



I tried to synthesize all the available results so far.
http://www.atheista.net/?p=270

benj on Wed, 16th May 2007 7:20 pm 



This just in from GMA News, Team Unity scored a 12-0 win in Maguindanao. *but the media team was not allowed to enter the canvassing venue

jude on Wed, 16th May 2007 7:24 pm 



Mr. Quezon is simply wet in his analysis. Or too biased to even see his way through the haze. He clutches at straws and tries to make much ado about not much.

The Senate race is a decoy meant to distract from the real prize, which is the congressional and local races. The Administration has not only survived, it has flourished, despite having a hostile Senate for the past 2 years. Things won’t be any different whether 12 additional hostile senators come into the picture. Although, as it is, 4 Administration senators winning is already a big bonus. The addition of Gringo, a loose cannon who has a history of double-crossing his allies, is actually beneficial to the Administration. Many of his RAM allies can attest to that and so can FPJ diehards, whom he abandoned for his own histrionics when the going got tough. And Ping, who has a history for hitting hard, yet pulling his punches when the administration is on the ropes. And for handing Malacañang to GMA by splitting the opposition in 2004. Ping can be “handled”. So the senate actually looks good for the administration. They can make all the noise but they can be ignored.

The Congressional race has never looked better. A few scraps will be given here and there to parry cheating allegations. Pacquiao can be sacrificed. And Rufus Rodriguez can be tolerated. But overall, it looks very bright for the administration. De Venecia is back on the saddle and by a blowout. Even Dato Arroyo has won by a huge margin. See:
http://eleksyon2007n.inquirer.net/view.php?article=20070516-66299
Louie Villafuerte, Boy Nograles, Rudy Antonino, Raul del Mar, Monico Puentevella – all the President’s loyal henchmen in Congress will be back.
Iggy Arroyo also won by a landslide and there’s even talk of making him the next Speaker of the House. See:
http://www.sunstar.com.ph/static/bac/2007/05/16/news/iggy.is.next.house.speaker..html

And in the local races, it has been mostly a choice between Lakas or Kampi. Heads the administration wins, tails the opposition still loses. A clever ploy, similar to having several brands competing within the same company. Create the illusion of a choice. The consumer will be happier for it.

So, ignore the senate. Congress and the local officials are all it takes to survive and to flourish. Look at the stock market taking off like a rocket. Look at the exchange rate breaking past the new barriers. Look at the real estate market booming. It’s great! We expect to see great achievements between now and 2010.

I suppose the futility of it all has dawned on the likes of Adel Tamano, who has lost his composure because he sees the handwriting on the wall. See:
http://eleksyon2007n.inquirer.net/view.php?article=20070516-66290

I hope Mr. Quezon can have the integrity to keep his perspective.

mlq3 on Wed, 16th May 2007 7:33 pm 



welcome back jude, juan dako, etc. you and cat might be right in that it really depends who makes it to the senate, even from the ranks of the opposition. but as for your reading of the importance of the house vs. the senate, and what retaining the house means, you can take a look at my inquirer current entry.

http://www.inquirerbloggers.net/current/2007/05/16/who-is-the-majority/

what’s at stake is whether the president gets a second wind or becomes a lame duck.

Mita on Wed, 16th May 2007 7:59 pm 



I personally believe the Lower House is more important too…Senate has lost its balls and has merely become a stage for the next presidential contenders. By all indications, the next elecitons is going to be even more interesting.

Jeg, I believe Comelec’s contention was results were being released without attributing their precint sources. I think that’s only fair. If they stopped it altogether without giving broadcasters the option to correct the misstep, then that would certainly be out of line.

Tonifranz on Wed, 16th May 2007 8:14 pm 



Mr. Quezon, your piece of analysis of previous senate election performances in is impressive. However, I must make a correction. In 1951, Quirino’s Liberal Party lost all 8 senate seats as could be seen in the Wikepedia entry for that particular election.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_general_election%2C_1951

However, this only strengthens your conclusions, since the Nacionalistas, who got 8 out of 8 seats that elections, swept the next elections in a landslide under Magsaysay in 1953.

mlq3 on Wed, 16th May 2007 8:39 pm 



tonifranz, many, many thanks for the correction! yes, indeed, you’re right, as this inquirer editorial pointed out:

http://opinion.inquirer.net/inquireropinion/editorial/view_article.php?article_id=58711

so a strong opposition showing would at the very least, make it difficult for the president to anoint a successor in 2010.

Current » Who is the majority? on Wed, 16th May 2007 8:41 pm 

[...] a reader in my blog corrected the data for the 1951 senatorial elections: it was a complete defeat for the incumbent’s [...]

Tonifranz on Wed, 16th May 2007 9:24 pm 



Mr. Quezon,

It could go both ways. In 1995, Mr. Ramos’s candidates, allegations of dagdag-bawas notwithstanding, won nine out of 12 seats as wikipedia points out.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_general_election%2C_1995

But it lost massively in 1998, as Mr. Ramos’ anointed successor, Mr. De Venecia, was swamped by Mr. Estrada.

In 2001, eight out of 12 Mrs. Arroyo’s bets won.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_general_election%2C_2001

And in 2004, according to the official COMELEC count, Mrs. Arroyo narrowly won.

UPn student on Wed, 16th May 2007 9:50 pm 



The Inquirer says that Comelec says that Honasan is at #16 and Trillanes is at #19. The Inquirer says that Namfrel says that Trillanes is #13.
…
As for Namfrel — at the end of the 2nd business-day after the polls closed, Namfrel at Green Hills has yet to tabulate votes from the precincts from Caloocan, Las Piñas, Makati, Malabon, Marikina, Navotas, Parañaque, Pasig, Pateros, Quezon City, San Juan and Taguig.

mlq3 on Wed, 16th May 2007 9:51 pm 



tonifranz, yes, and i think that’s cat’s point too, her argument is that among other things, the dynamics in the senate will change with lim’s going on to be mayor of manila. even if a majority of nominally opposition senators are elected, it remains to be seen just how independent they’d be.

when fvr got a public endorsement by his party winning strongly in the senate, it paved the way for the chacha effort, and it wasn’t the senate that stopped that effort.

the president, too, got a boost when her coalition won in 2001. and after 2004, she seemed poised to do well until 2005 when the whole situation changed yet again.

but even if one assumes the senators elected this year are only nominally opposition, the public message is still clear: her party didn’t elect a majority in the upper house, which would still send the message that it’ll be the status quo until 2010, but we are entering the transition to a post-arroyo era. the question is whether the president will permit the initiative to slip away from her fingers or find a way to rally the faithful to at the very least, keep her relevant until 2010.

the election, if it happens, of someone like trillanes, for example, is a very public slap on her face. no ifs and buts about it, and would set the public mood for considering her at best, a lame duck, and at worst, someone facing payback from her opponents after she steps down from office. if she does.

manuelbuencamino on Wed, 16th May 2007 10:07 pm 



The Senate is important because it serves as a check and balance to Gloria and her minions.

A big opposition victory in the Senate races will prove that the public rejects Gloria.

Most local races are more dependent on local issues than national issues so a win by incumbents in local races doesn’t tell you anything about how the nation, as a whole, feels about the ruling cabal.

If TU manages to change the results of the vote then it’s time for Cat, Bencab and gang to go home. We will emigrate.

Nick on Wed, 16th May 2007 10:12 pm 



Manuelbuencamino, count me on that last note..

Mita on Wed, 16th May 2007 10:27 pm 



wikipedia isn’t the best source of factual, historical information since anyone can put in data…

Tonifranz on Wed, 16th May 2007 10:29 pm 



Mr. Quezon,

I agree that a victory for a majority opposition in the Senate, even if only six or seven, would be a blow to the prestige and a loss of face for the administration.

However for 2010, assuming Mrs. Arroyo steps down, the winner would go to the more popular candidate, not necessarily on who will or will not be anointed by Mrs. Arroyo. However, looking at the case of Mr. Sotto, a popular candidate could be dragged down by an unpopular anointment.

We simply must look at the events of the next three years to see if an anointment by Arroyo in 2010 would be a “kiss of death” or a big booster.

justice league on Wed, 16th May 2007 10:32 pm 



Ca T,

Mar Roxas is still a Senator till 2010 also.

mlq3 on Wed, 16th May 2007 10:46 pm 



Tonifrantz,

Definitely, 3 years is a long time. The election just held, though, sets the stage for what is to come. The senate and everyone else, will have to face the coming issues: the need to either sell government assets or raise taxes to keep covering the deficit; the pressures on the budget from the announced 20 major infrastructure projects; the costs of a possible realignment in the house, as de venecia prepares to square off with luis villafuerte; the costs of another charter change effort; the legal confrontation that will arise from the anti terrorism law going into effect, etc. etc. etc.

the president of course will gamble that if she can accomplish the “social payback” that was absent over the past few years, a more prosperous country will be a forgiving one.

edwin lacierda on Wed, 16th May 2007 11:13 pm 



I know I may be out of line but looking at 2010, I am going to vote Manolo Quezon for Senator, if there is still a Senate in 2010. And I encourage everyone who thinks Manolo deserve to share his analytical skills in the Upper House to give him a push. He is too happy analyzing and watching the parade pass him by. He should step up to the plate!

Let’s give Manolo a big push! Anyone who wants to see him in the Senate, let’s start the bandwagon, start early and start it in the internet!

Email me at lacierda at gmail dot com and let’s start a guerrilla campaign!

Bencard on Wed, 16th May 2007 11:45 pm 



hey Jude, thanks for the very convincing analysis which actually reinforces mine. I’m impressed! If that doesn’t give the gloaters in this blog a way back to reality, inspite of lame spin by MLQ3 and his disciples, i don’t know what will.

As things stand now, I really look forward to a brighter future for our country, e.g. the stocks soaring, the peso flourishing vs. the dollar, investors’ confidence at its all time high, budget and trade dificits in check, foreign borrowing and repayments down and up, respectively, graft and corruption prosecutions and convictions on the rise, among others, are very promising indeed.

I might yet decide to keep my condo at the Fort for our retirement, and spend my pension there.

mlq3, why do you constantly talk about reprisals against GMA when her term expires? Is this a personal thing?

vic on Wed, 16th May 2007 11:57 pm 



If TU manages to change the results of the vote then it’s time for Cat, Bencab and gang to go home. We will emigrate.

For Ca t and the gang to go home, they just simply pack their suitcases and board a plane, and for those who want to change places it might take a little while and maybe for some will have to wait after the next election. It is not that simple to get a green card, unless you are familiar with the way the politicians do theirs and even immigrating to other countries, each has to take his or her turn at the turnstile, unless of course you “know the way” how the Pinoy politics work.

Well, of course for some with money, things could be worked out quick…

mlq3 on Thu, 17th May 2007 12:00 am 



becnard, it’s a functional thing, going back to my objection to the incarceration of joseph estrada (by all means i said at the time and still do, lock him up after conviction but not before). that was an event that marked a turning point in how ex presidents would be treated. and this was before the president turned half the country bitterly against her. but now that we’ve gone down that path, it’s a fate that every president risks happening to them once they step down from office.

cvj on Thu, 17th May 2007 12:02 am 



Yeah Jude, your analysis sure convinced Bencard. You should have read what he was saying before you came. What a turnaround.

supremo on Thu, 17th May 2007 12:17 am 



Current Senators

1. Ramon Revilla, Jr. – 39 years old
2. Miriam Defensor Santiago – 62
3. R. Gordon – 62
4. Lito Lapid – 52
5. Cayetano (sister) – 41
6. R. Biazon – 72
7. Mar Roxas – 50
8. Estrada – 44
9. Enrile – 83
10. Madrigal – 49
11. Pimentel – 74
12. Alfredo Lim – 78

Possible winners
13. Legarda, Loren – 47
14. Escudero, Francis Joseph – 37
15. Lacson, Panfilo – 58
16. Villar, Manuel Jr – 57
17. Pangilinan, Francis – 43
18. Aquino, Benigno Simeon III – 47
19. Angara, Edgardo – 72
20. Honasan, Gregorio – 59
21.Trillanes – 35
22.Alan Cayetano – 36
23.Zubiri – 38
24. Recto – 43

Average age – 53.25 years old

supremo on Thu, 17th May 2007 12:28 am 



“hey Jude, thanks for the very convincing analysis which actually reinforces mine. I’m impressed! If that doesn’t give the gloaters in this blog a way back to reality, inspite of lame spin by MLQ3 and his disciples, i don’t know what will.”

You need someone to reinforce what you said?

benj on Thu, 17th May 2007 12:58 am 



Possible winners
13. Legarda, Loren – 47
14. Escudero, Francis Joseph – 37
15. Lacson, Panfilo – 58
16. Villar, Manuel Jr – 57
17. Pangilinan, Francis – 43
18. Aquino, Benigno Simeon III – 47
19. Angara, Edgardo – 72
20. Honasan, Gregorio – 59
21.Trillanes – 35
22.Alan Cayetano – 36
23.Zubiri – 38
24. Recto – 43

Ummm… You’re counting Arroyo out?

manuelbuencamino on Thu, 17th May 2007 12:58 am 



Jude,

How have Arroyo’s candidates, those fielded to take down key opposition figures, fared?

Pacquiao – talo
Lapid – talo
Genuino – talo
Dong Puno – talo
Garcillano – talo

What about reelectionist pro-impeachment reps as a whole? Winning or losing?

Meanwhile, Villafuerte and de Venecia reelected might mean the fight between lakas and kampi will get worse.

Kampi has moist eyes for the speakership which lies at the end of the rainbow coalition. Gloria wil have to pick the next speaker. Whoever is not chosen will certainly become pissed and there’s no Mike this time to salve hurt feelings.

Sheer numbers make the next congress look like a heads she wins tails the opposition loses situation. But both Lakas and Kampi have their own agendas.

Lakas is looking beyond 2010. It is bent on securing its position as the dominant party in all elective levels.

We’re not sure if there’s life beyond 2010 for Kampi unless the Arroyos have a succession plan.

As to the Rainbow Coalition.
Nacionalistas will want to gear up for Villar’s candidacy.
Liberals for Mar’s.
NPC is looking at a Chiz three-pointer.
Lacson in search of a party. So is Loren and Gordon.

So from the looks of it, the ruling party’s coalition might not be as solid as it was during the 13th Congress.

It certainly will be more expensive to maintain this time around. Who will pay the bill?

justice league on Thu, 17th May 2007 1:01 am 



Manolo,

I guess you’re right that every President should consider such fate similarly just as the Presidents of South Korea should ponder that possibility also.

Though I just can’t remember if the SK Presidents were held on House arrest or totally locked up during their trial.

rego on Thu, 17th May 2007 1:04 am 



Manolo,

Im not talking about fath in COMeLEC, Im talking about the irresponsible statement of Ellen. Substantiating the charges and filing the approaiate case in the proper venue. That way may kapupuntahan ang usapan at ang bansa m na rin….

benj on Thu, 17th May 2007 1:20 am 



As to the Rainbow Coalition.
Nacionalistas will want to gear up for Villar’s candidacy.
Liberals for Mar’s.
NPC is looking at a Chiz three-pointer.
Lacson in search of a party. So is Loren and Gordon.

Mar would most likely team up with partymate Kiko, right? So that’s one pair. Kiko has to run for a higher office because he’s on his second term.

Villar’s definitely in it to win – and I hope he does.

Chiz for 2010? I really doubt it. If he does run, he’s not going to win.

Lacson and Loren will kill each other for the right to be the presidential candidate.

rego on Thu, 17th May 2007 1:44 am 



in the end De Castro will be the next President…

Bencard on Thu, 17th May 2007 1:45 am 



mlq3, please educate me on this. Was PGMA ever accused of Plunder, like Erap?, If not, I doubt very much she would suffer the same fate as his. Apple and orange. Good comparison as far only as their being both fruit. Erap’s incarceration is a matter of law, not choice (by anyone, including you).

Yes, rego. tordesillas (alleged “journalist”) has nothing but “irresponsible” rhetoric against PGMA and her administration. I saw her and that highly emotional guy from PCIJ (can’t remember the name) who wants “absolute” press freedom. The duo really give journalism a bad name.

manuelbuencamino on Thu, 17th May 2007 1:59 am 



Bencard,

Gloria, like Erap, could be charged with plunder after she leaves Malacanan. The plunder charge against Erap was in the impeachment complaint. But he was arrested only after the charges of plunder was brought to the Sandigan. It’s not apples and oranges. It’s when the charges were actually filed before the proper forum.

Read what your adopted country’s Founding Fathers have to say about press freedom. You will see that they were willing to put up with a whole lot more than what you accuse Ellen of doing.

manuelbuencamino on Thu, 17th May 2007 2:08 am 



Benj,

Not disagreeing with your observation but the point I was trying to make was “So from the looks of it, the ruling party’s coalition might not be as solid as it was during the 13th Congress.
It certainly will be more expensive to maintain this time around. Who will pay the bill?”

I sense some new elements in the power equation and I’m trying to identify them.

Do you think it’s smooth sailing hereon for Gloria? What do you see working in her favor or against it?

Bencard on Thu, 17th May 2007 2:20 am 



buencamino, to get an indictment for plunder, you need proof of probable cause convincing to the prosecutor. The prosecutor cannot be willy-nilly with respect to his responsibility because his job and personal integrity (if not sanity) would be on the line.

I’m asking mlq3, not you (apparently you don’t know either), whether PGMA has ever been charged with plunder
in a “proper forum”.

In my adopted country, press freedom is not absolute and cannot be abused with impunity. I should know for I have both prosecuted and defended libel cases in this jurisdiction.

UPn student on Thu, 17th May 2007 2:30 am 



Iglesia ni Cristo electioneering in Antique:
When the INC announced its choice of Pacificador, a good number of its members rebelled against their ministers and voted for Perez.

The INC’s stand frightened some people who decided to flood the province with pictures of Antique’s hero, the late Gov. Evelio Javier in a pool of blood after he was murdered in February 1986 by goons suspected to be followers of Pacificador. The photos carried the caption, “Never Again.” The episode in Antique is a good lesson for the INC: it should choose whom it should back up; why did it support a suspected murder mastermind? In the same province, Rep. Exequiel Javier, Evelio’s brother, won over Robert Delfin by a small margin.
—Posted May 17, 2007 01:25:00(Mla Time)
Inquirer // Belinda Olivares-Cunanan

Bencard on Thu, 17th May 2007 2:33 am 



oh, by the way, buencamino. if you are a communist, or member of a subversive organization, you are inadmissible in the U.S., and cannot emmigrate there.

Bencard on Thu, 17th May 2007 2:33 am 



oh, by the way, buencamino. if you are a communist, or member of a subversive organization, you are inadmissible in the U.S., and cannot emmigrate there.

manuelbuencamino on Thu, 17th May 2007 2:36 am 



Bencard,

no I’m not a communist. Are you?

Bencard on Thu, 17th May 2007 2:50 am 



buencamino, read again. I was admitted into the U.S. and now residing here. Now, what do you think, am I?

UPn student on Thu, 17th May 2007 2:50 am 



I don’t know about the generic-label “communist”; I will suspect that a card-carrying member from Mainland China who wants to emigrate to the US and is qualified (e.g. physicist, computer technician, pianist or cellist, diplomat or investor) can get accepted. What is true is that any person that has provided aid to a group on US list of terrorists (like JoMa or the Kurdistan separatist group waging war against Turkey) gets rejected.

supremo on Thu, 17th May 2007 2:53 am 



‘in the end De Castro will be the next President…’

If GMA is impeached…..

There is no other scenario for a De Castro presidency.

UPn student on Thu, 17th May 2007 2:58 am 



What is also true is once a person becomes a US citizen, taking away the citizenship is very difficult. In Vance v. Terrazas, the Supreme Court had something that the government cannot coerce someone to surrender citizenship. (The most common cases of “stripping of citizenship” result from the citizenship-grant being void in the first place because the applicant lied (e.g. about prior activities as Hitler follower) in the citizenship application.)

cvj on Thu, 17th May 2007 2:59 am 



Bencard, i don’t think you would want to hear MB’s answer to that question.

Bencard on Thu, 17th May 2007 3:00 am 



UPn stude:

Sec. 212(a)(3)(D) of the Immigration & Nationality Act (U.S.) is explicit regarding inadmissibility of communists (members and/or affiliates of communist orgs.).

Bencard on Thu, 17th May 2007 3:12 am 



and, UPn, revocation and/or declaration of nullity of citizenship due to fraud is different from “coercing” one to surrender citizenship. As to the latter, the court’s decision in Vance makes sense.

cvj, buencamino already answered, and, I don’t know about you, but I was glad to “hear” it.

supremo on Thu, 17th May 2007 3:14 am 



‘buencamino, read again. I was admitted into the U.S. and now residing here. Now, what do you think, am I?’

I bet you are someone who is a member of the Asperger Syndrome Association.

UPn student on Thu, 17th May 2007 3:17 am 



Bencard… I’ll defer to Section you had cited.

BUT… the meaningful “but” is that the US processes and procedures do have leeway (so a Mainland China “regular bright dude” who got himself the Party card because it was a good way to qualify to get into college probably can get himself accepted as US immigrant if there are no other blotches on his application package, especially if he can get the sponsorship of his state senator and/or congressman).

Now providing aid to the Abu Sayyaf gets to nowhere.

Bencard on Thu, 17th May 2007 3:17 am 



supremo, you lose (your bet).

UPn student on Thu, 17th May 2007 4:36 am 



Point of (minor) interest: Filipino citizens in the US who voted… rejected the 2 senatoriables (Trillanes and Honasan) who used violence to express their political inclinations.

Nick on Thu, 17th May 2007 5:25 am 



Take it easy everyone, no need to get into name calling.. We’re passionate about politics, but no need to get bloody on the discussion..

UPn student, you’re right with the two senatoriables (Trillanes and Honasan), I can’t stand for their irresponsible actions.. (it should be of major interest, since both are poised to make it into the magic 12)..

The Ca t on Thu, 17th May 2007 6:18 am 



The Senate is important because it serves as a check and balance to Gloria and her minions.

You make me laugh MB.

Senate is a a garden of butterflies. They flutter from one party to another depending on what benefit them the most.

Loyalty is a virtue that is totally absent among the senators.

May prediction ka na bang nangyari MB. Ako, marami na.

rego on Thu, 17th May 2007 8:21 am 



“There is no other scenario for a De Castro presidency.”

Oh please, De Castro can very well run and win the 2010 election.

manuelbuencamino on Thu, 17th May 2007 9:11 am 



Cat,

Madame auring is that you? Eh mukha yata natalo an ex mo na si vixtor wood….meow meow

Jeg on Thu, 17th May 2007 9:54 am 



Bencard, I was expecting you to react to what Jude wrote about Iggy: Iggy Arroyo also won by a landslide and there’s even talk of making him the next Speaker of the House. since you have been very vocal about your abhorrence for political dynasties. Instead you gave what he wrote a blanket thumbs up.

cvj on Thu, 17th May 2007 10:25 am 



Jeg, actually i think what you pointed out is one of the least distasteful portions of Jude’s post. I hope Pacquiao reads this…

The Congressional race has never looked better. A few scraps will be given here and there to parry cheating allegations. Pacquiao can be sacrificed. – Jude May 16th, 2007 at 7:24 pm

…so he will get a flavor of Gloria Arroyo’s habit of using and discarding people as it suits her.

You can see from the overall tenor of Jude’s post above the absence of any moral sense and respect toward to voters, and that the thrust is, in his words, to “Create the illusion of a choice”.

After all this, he has the gall to admonish Manolo to maintain his integrity.

toniong pagod on Thu, 17th May 2007 10:40 am 



jeg,

in the rush to be proven right, i suspect compromising on principles was deemed a small price to pay.

or perhaps the abhorrence was for “old” political dynasties. the arroyos haven’t been around to earn his abhorrence.

Bencard on Thu, 17th May 2007 10:40 am 



Jeg, good point. I don’t think PGMA would have any part of that, and Iggy would allow himself to be involved in that kind of intrigue. Either J. de V. or Villafuerte would be an effective congressional ally of the President, and would help her stay the course towards a better Philippines. I think she wouldn’t need Iggy for that purpose. Afterall, every economic indicator is up and she is not pre-occupied with re-election.

In any event, Iggy does not belong to PGMA’s immediate family so his speakership, should it ever happen, would not impinge on my aversion to political dynasty.

mlq3 on Thu, 17th May 2007 10:42 am 



bencard, the president can only be charged with plunder once she leaves office. from what i understand. in office, she’s immune from suit.

Bencard on Thu, 17th May 2007 11:03 am 



there you go again, monsignor cvj, moralizing. tell me, who, in Philippine politics do not use or discard people when politically necessary? Only a naive politician would not do that. Show me one who would stick to a political liability, even after “using” the latter and I would show you a loser. Politics, especially the Philippine brand, is devoid of moral sense so you either play the game or stay out of it, or else you moralize and lose.

If Manolo is a candidate and you are his political albatross, do you think he would stand by you?

Jeg on Thu, 17th May 2007 11:09 am 



Politics, especially the Philippine brand, is devoid of moral sense so you either play the game or stay out of it, or else you moralize and lose.

So Bencard, youre actually indicting politics as a whole as an amoral exercise? Or are you giving approval to its practice without a guiding moral principle? Winner=good; loser=bad?

Bencard on Thu, 17th May 2007 11:12 am 



but mlq3, has there ever been an allegation of what could be a viable basis for a charge of plunder when she leaves office, either as a principal, accessory or accomplice (beyond unsubstantiated, but “privileged” innuendoes made in the senate floor)?

Bencard on Thu, 17th May 2007 11:36 am 



Jeg, all I’m saying is that “moral” judgment has no place in politics, for who is conmpetent to judge morality. Bishops Cruz, Tobias, Capalla, the Pope? What sanctions would they use to give effect to their “judgment”? But then secular politicians are not running for religious office.

I think any attempt to judge morality in politics is an exercise in presumptuousness. Therefore, in that context, the formulation you offered (winner = good; loser = bad) is fallacious. Of course in another sense, winning is always good for the winner and losing is bad for the loser.

Bencard on Thu, 17th May 2007 11:37 am 



Jeg, all I’m saying is that “moral” judgment has no place in politics, for who is conmpetent to judge morality. Bishops Cruz, Tobias, Capalla, the Pope? What sanctions would they use to give effect to their “judgment”? But then secular politicians are not running for religious office.

I think any attempt to judge morality in politics is an exercise in presumptuousness. Therefore, in that context, the formulation you offered (winner = good; loser = bad) is fallacious. Of course in a practical sense, winning is always good for the winner and losing is bad for the loser.

Jeg on Thu, 17th May 2007 11:51 am 



Jeg, all I’m saying is that “moral” judgment has no place in politics, for who is conmpetent to judge morality.

In an election, the voter is presumed to be able to judge, that’s why the government gives them the right to choose. Each individual voter then is presumed competent to judge morality. We know what right and wrong is. We know good from evil. That’s why we know cheating is bad, vote buying (and vote selling) is bad. If we dont have a moral compass, then cheating would be ok if it gets the job done, i.e., being elected. What we need in Philippine politics is MORE moral judgement on the part of each individual voter, not less.

I think any attempt to judge morality in politics is an exercise in presumptuousness.

Which sort of answers my original question. You are giving tacit approval to the practice of politics without a moral principle.

mlq3 on Thu, 17th May 2007 12:04 pm 



bencard, that is best left to the superior wisdom of the lawyers -for the prosecution and defense- who would tangle over potential plunder charges. the probability is very high charges will be filed; it depends on many things, of course, whether such charges would prosper. jarius bondoc seems to think the recent deal signed in china is at the very least, impeachable, if not worthy of a plunder charge.

cvj on Thu, 17th May 2007 12:04 pm 



It is precisely this morality-less ‘the end justifies the means‘ approach that we in the middle class/middle forces should avoid. If we keep at this, then it will be either government by the numbers (i.e. the poor majority) or government by material resources (i.e. the rich few) in the foreseeable future. A middle class without any moral compass will not have the moral ascendancy to navigate between these two forces.

Nick on Thu, 17th May 2007 12:06 pm 



Great points Jeg, I think you’re winning the debate on this one..

mlq3 on Thu, 17th May 2007 12:48 pm 



bencard, point of information, i’ve long wanted a lawyer’s opinion on this: what is the difference between moral certainty and legal certainty on a question?

justice league on Thu, 17th May 2007 1:43 pm 



Ca T,

You maybe right or wrong on the loyalty issue but that fotunately does not negate the checks that the outgoing Senate has done on the administration with the attempt to revise the Charter for one example.

So we should expect the incoming Senate (should the composition of the the top 12 yesterday be the winners. I don’t know if the line up has changed though) to exercise such checks also.

benj on Thu, 17th May 2007 1:49 pm 



Singson is topping Maguindanao. Hahahahaha

benign0 on Thu, 17th May 2007 1:56 pm 



“Senate is a a garden of butterflies. They flutter from one party to another depending on what benefit them the most.”

This is only true because Filipinos in general do not expect anything of substance beyond the personal posturings and flutterings (from one flower to another) of their politicians.

Look at the discussions here as an example — nothing but gossip on who’s whos and who’s wheres. Issues? Nah. Too hard on the shallow Pinoy mind.

The biggest gas of all is that the concept of “united” (and even funnier “genuine”) opposition has been taken up in tbe lexicon. Jeez. How many “united” oppositions have we had in the last 40 years? They stay united only as a machine for winning elections.

Next election please… (and then the next, and the next, and the next, ad infinitum).

benign0 on Thu, 17th May 2007 2:04 pm 



Here is an example of the kind of thinking that determines elections in the Philippines:

“You bet, I am now confident that God is allowing Trillanes to win because his victory is a victory over evil, and that this victory will bring a lot of souls back to God as this ordeal of Trillanes is a test of faith. I would advice Ermita to shut his mouth or he might incur the wrath of heaven for perjuring himself. ”

Taken from a comment from one of Ellen Tordesillas’s biggest fans:
http://www.ellentordesillas.com/?p=1198#comments

Now isn’t that scary? It’s scary because it illustrates how profoundly effective campaign efforts are on the vacuous mind of the average Pinoy.

That my friends is the mind of what determines election results in Pinoy society. We in the elite presume to evaluate — even judge — the mechanics behind election outcomes with our university-trained minds yet fail to appreciate just how convoluted the logical faculties are of the minds on which we entrust the selection of our leaders.

-

Jeg on Thu, 17th May 2007 2:59 pm 



Ok I’ll bite.

That my friends is the mind of what determines election results in Pinoy society.

You mean actual results, benign0 or results that those in power would want to put out as the results? Because if we take the last results as basis–the one in 2004–it was the mind of GMA with the help of her minions that determined the results. That poor fan of ellen’s you quoted didnt have a say in the matter, I gather. If you think that ellen’s fan determined the results of that election, I think youre either being naive, or perhaps you don’t believe that there was a malicious manipulation of the results. Who knows what would happen if ellen’s fan actually did determine the result of the election? Could be better, could be worse. What do you think? Worse or better?

If ellen’s fan and those like her dont get to determine the results of elections, I would have to say you in the elite with your university trained minds had a hand in it.

Now isn’t that scary? It’s scary because it illustrates how profoundly effective campaign efforts are on the vacuous mind of the average Pinoy.

Frankly I dont remember any Trillanes campaign ad. There probably were, but I dont remember seeing them. They werent as ubiquitous as the ads of Pichay or Zubiri or Villar or any of the other big spenders. He couldnt have possibly campaigned actively and in person. He’s in jail, you know.

Just out of curiosity, from the tone of your post, I gather you don’t have a dog in this fight and are merely offering your disinterested opinion on Philippine society from overseas, am I correct?

benign0 on Thu, 17th May 2007 5:28 pm 



That’s precisely my point. He was in jail.

Erap didn’t win because he had a better platform. He was just of a different background.

Trillianes did not have a significant differentiation from the rest of the rabble. He just happened to be in jail. The underdog. The guy who tried and failed to fight city hall. The Rudy Distrito of politics. Filipinos relate with losers because they can identify with them.

It’s always easy to play the people-in-power-manipulated-the-results card. But that’s a tired old argument that’s, in any case, beside the point. And besides, it’s becoming a bit of a bad habit viewing the efficacy of “democracy” in Pinoy society through the narrow lens of “elections” (which is but one of many features of democracy). “The people have spoken” is such a tired old cliche.

The point is where are the issues? Out of this whole expensive and disruptive exercise, are we any more clear about what course is being charted for our basketcase society in the next several years?

All we get for our trouble is a bunch of new arses warming the seats funded by our tax money.

As for your last paragraph, thanks for your curiosity. I’m flattered.

Jon Mariano on Thu, 17th May 2007 5:37 pm 



Benigno0, what is your proof that what you gave out as reason for people’s voting for Trillanes is true? It could just easily be that people are sick and tired of this administration and Trillanes looks like a good solution! If you ask me my proof, I can’t give one either.

benign0 on Thu, 17th May 2007 5:42 pm 



Jon Mariano:

There is no proof of course. But then if you are speculating that “It could just easily be that people are sick and tired of this administration and Trillanes looks like a good solution”, I’d ask you this:

Isn’t that the same reasoning voters took when they voted Erap into office?

Kung baga, someone different, for the sake of selecting someone different?

That’s not a ver intelligent approach to selecting government officials.

Jeg on Thu, 17th May 2007 5:46 pm 



Erap didn’t win because he had a better platform. He was just of a different background.

That’s true. The people grew tired of the university-trained elite and chose one who they thought would fight their fight for them. The university-trained elite kept giving them empty promises, gave them a sub-standard educational system, kept them tilling soil that they didnt even own, taxed them til their ears bled, then forgot about them til the next elections. Erap let them down of course. He was a crook.

Trillianes did not have a significant differentiation from the rest of the rabble. He just happened to be in jail.

Where have you been? He fought city hall that’s why he’s in jail. And that’s why a lot of people voted for him–because he fought and was prepared to lose his life and freedom. And he didnt fight because of some whim. He fought for something. Surely you can see beauty of that.

And besides, it’s becoming a bit of a bad habit viewing the efficacy of “democracy” in Pinoy society through the narrow lens of “elections” (which is but one of many features of democracy).

I actually agree with you on this. It is even possible to have democracy without elections. Let somebody sit there for life just as long as he doesnt trample the people’s rights. Or else we the people can kick him out with all means at our disposal in a democracy: impeachment, people power, revolution. But if we are to have elections, is it too much to ask for a free and fair one?

The point is where are the issues?

If youre here in the Philippines, look out the window. Take a walk outside. Go visit the rural areas. The issues will stare at you right in the face. You think the Filipino voter doesnt know the issues? He lives with the issues. He doesnt need them articulated or printed on paper. Besides, with the substandard education the uiniversity-trained elite has subjected him to, you think he’ll have the communication skills you have?

If youre not in the Philippines, I can only say what Ive said to the other steak commandoes in this forum: Pasalubong, ha?

manuelbuencamino on Thu, 17th May 2007 5:49 pm 



benigno,

gloria once said I believe I am her now because that’s God’s plan for me and for us

benign0 on Thu, 17th May 2007 5:53 pm 



Jeg, you said “Where have you been? He fought city hall that’s why he’s in jail. And that’s why a lot of people voted for him–because he fought and was prepared to lose his life and freedom.”

You mean THAT is the only basis you’d put forward to recommend that one vote for Trillianes?

We have to find a more intelligent basis for selecting politicians. Any schmoe can walk into a public building wielding a gun. Countless Pinoys die in the name of one hollow-headed cause or the other.

But name one politician who can chart out a convincing vision of where our country should be in the next 5-10 years. Now such a person is a real hero in my book — because he uses his brain. People who use their brains are in such short supply in the Philippines. But gun-wielding jailbirds? I think the sorry state of our prison services speak for themselves.

benign0 on Thu, 17th May 2007 5:56 pm 



manuelbuencamino: I don’t blame her for dropping the Big Guy’s name. Because the reality is that Pinoys are suckers for superstitious BS like that.

Look around you. There are thousands of pictures of politicians kneeling in prayer in this and that church. A sick sight if you ask me.

Jeg on Thu, 17th May 2007 6:03 pm 



You mean THAT is the only basis you’d put forward to recommend that one vote for Trillianes?

Of course not. He’s running for senator. His fighting skills won’t have much use there. Give us some credit, man.

Jeg on Thu, 17th May 2007 6:07 pm 



There are thousands of pictures of politicians kneeling in prayer in this and that church.

I dont think theyre falling for that one anymore. Again give us some credit. The voters do learn.

rego on Thu, 17th May 2007 6:08 pm 



wow, benign0 is back! at wala pa ring ng kakupas kupas. Its always very refreshing to read a different point of view in this blog.

rego on Thu, 17th May 2007 6:18 pm 



“The point is where are the issues?

If youre here in the Philippines, look out the window. Take a walk outside. Go visit the rural areas. The issues will stare at you right in the face. You think the Filipino voter doesnt know the issues? He lives with the issues. He doesnt need them articulated or printed on paper. Besides, with the substandard education the uiniversity-trained elite has subjected him to, you think he’ll have the communication skills you have?”

Yun nga ang mahirap eh. Parang parepareho tayong nag lolokokahan. Ayan ang issue halos tukain na tayo lahat. Pero “did any of the candidate really exhaustively and intelligently dicussed the issues during the campaign”?

rego on Thu, 17th May 2007 6:26 pm 



oh there was one Martin Baustista. But did he won? Dapat ba ikulong muna ang mag taong katulad nya lumbag muna sa batas at makulong para lang manalo?

Jeg on Thu, 17th May 2007 6:28 pm 



Pero “did any of the candidate really exhaustively and intelligently dicussed the issues during the campaign”?

And I ask you, rego, to give them some credit. Im sure they did in their campaign sorties and in face-to-face meetings. The GO candidates arent really neophytes so we in Manila know that theyre all about. TU candidates too.

(Teka, by ‘intelligently,’ did you mean in English using many five-dollar words? Maybe they didnt. )

benj on Thu, 17th May 2007 7:02 pm 



Namfrel Zamboanga is almost done (94%). The trend held on. The Genuine Opposition: 9 Team Unity: 1 Independent: 2

Decimation.

benign0 on Thu, 17th May 2007 7:14 pm 



rego said “If youre here in the Philippines, look out the window. Take a walk outside. Go visit the rural areas. The issues will stare at you right in the face. You think the Filipino voter doesnt know the issues? He lives with the issues. He doesnt need them articulated or printed on paper. Besides, with the substandard education the uiniversity-trained elite has subjected him to, you think he’ll have the communication skills you have?”

Well just like a good story, if it is not written down in a book, it never gets sold.

The issues indeed are everywhere — except, that is, in the campaigns and debates our politicians engage in, as you yourself pointed out.

Kaya nga education is an issue e. Pinoys see the problems around them but don’t have the intellectual faculties to evaluate them critically. That is why nothing gets solved.

rego on Thu, 17th May 2007 7:54 pm 



Exactly Benign0, even the media is not helping much!

Sabi nga ni Jeg, siguro nadiscuss ang mga issues sa mga campaign sorties. Pero yun ng nag lang hindi nila sinulat. Mas pinili nila ang 5 dollar bills

The Ca t on Thu, 17th May 2007 8:26 pm 



Cat,

Madame auring is that you? Eh mukha yata natalo an ex mo na si vixtor wood….meow meow

MB,

Victor Wood had been long dumped by Madam Auring. She took a 17 year old guy for a fiance.

To refresh your memory, I said that no one can beat Alfredo Lim in Manila. That’s why even Ping Lacson decided to run for senator.

And I said that Imelda Marcos won’t run.

Mita on Thu, 17th May 2007 9:42 pm 



benigno is right on a lot of points but people refuse to acknowledge his reasoning …. one ordinary person expresses his independent opinion here and is accused of being a “brigadier” – some paranoid fantasy of a few individuals who regard themselves as morally upright.

as for morality, it’s really out of sync for us to expect politicians to be morally upright when we elected a self-procalimed womanizer into the presidency at one time. self-proclaimed ha. do you even get the irony of it all?

as for cheating…YES. everyone cheats in this country. from the time you buy your food in the market, kulang sa timbang…to the gas you cook your food with. to mommies doing their kids’ homework so they get top marks. to the streets you drive everyday which is fluid not because there is no traffic but because no one follows the lanes…we disobey rules all the time and will not practise common courtesy with each other.

what can we expect when we ourselves refuse to acknowledge how sick we have made our society? gringo and trillanes and gloria are just symptoms of a bigger disease we all share. and yet here we go again…perpetuating the lies and the drama.

Bencard on Thu, 17th May 2007 11:19 pm 



mlq3, sorry for skipping the beat. differing time zones and nocturnal needs prevented me from reading, digesting and responding to your post.

In the field of Law, I think “legal certainty” and “moral certainty” are two different concepts with two very different functions. Legal certainty is a test to determine whether a court has subject matter jurisdiction to hear a case, i.e., whether the jurisdictional amount has been met. Otherwise, the amount claimed in the complaint will control.

Moral certainty, on the other hand, refers to that degree of proof required to convict a criminal, i.e., proof beyond reasonable doubt, one that produces absolute certainty in the mind of the trier of fact.

mlq3 on Thu, 17th May 2007 11:34 pm 



bencard, thanks very much. so it’s the difference between say, forming an opinion and having that opinion stand up in court? and of course, the very strict rules (on procedure, evidence) that ensures that a jury, for example, convicts not on the basis of its emotions, but facts that have withstood the scrutiny of all sides. much obliged for the clarification.

Jon Mariano on Thu, 17th May 2007 11:39 pm 



Benign0, Trillanes is projected to win but that is not a sure bet. Whatever reason people have that they voted for him is their business and it doesn’t look good on you condemning them for it.

You don’t like people gossiping and speculating here but you also do it yourself and you even acknowledge it by saying that you don’t have proof.

Erap’s election was a learning experience and look where Goma, Cesar Montano, Boyet de Leon, and Pacquiao are, they lost!

If people believe that Gloria should go, then she should go even just for the sake of changing her. Well, I believe that she should go.

toniong pagod on Fri, 18th May 2007 12:25 am 



it all comes down to culture doesn’t it?

so will the country have the faceless, malleable masses that are merely prey to the whims of the small band of self-involved power brokers that run things in this country?

are these the only people our society can allow? yung mga nanggugulang at yung mga nagpa-pagulang?

Bencard on Fri, 18th May 2007 12:42 am 



Jeg:

Obviously, there is some confusion on the context of what I wrote ” moral judgment has no place in politics”.
What I was referring to was “judgment” of judgmental people, other than individuals on their own PRIVATE morality, acting as moral policemen. Remember I was commenting on cvj’s comment that Jude’s post was devoid of “any moral sense and respect towards to (sic) voters”.

When a person votes with his conscience (not for a personal quid pro quo) he follows his own ideals of morality, as the sovereign over his body and mind. This is not subject to intrusion by anyone, not even the government. You’re right, each person is presumed competent to judge his own morality, but the key word here is PRESUMED. The hard question is: is he actually? How could the likes of Jalosjos get elected while serving sentence for a heinous crime?

ay_naku on Fri, 18th May 2007 1:14 am 



as for cheating…YES. everyone cheats in this country. from the time you buy your food in the market, kulang sa timbang…to the gas you cook your food with. to mommies doing their kids’ homework so they get top marks. to the streets you drive everyday which is fluid not because there is no traffic but because no one follows the lanes…we disobey rules all the time and will not practise common courtesy with each other.

So that excuses GMA’s massive cheating in the 2004 elections? Are you saying that if everybody does it to some degree, then ok na lang yun, hayaan na lang? Ok lang ang mandaya?

what can we expect when we ourselves refuse to acknowledge how sick we have made our society? gringo and trillanes and gloria are just symptoms of a bigger disease we all share. and yet here we go again…perpetuating the lies and the drama.

Gringo and Trillanes are now in jail facing the charges against them. So is Erap. GMA has steadfastly refused to squarely face the very serious charges against her, using everything in her power –legal or illegal, sometimes ruthlessly so– to thwart attempts to make her face the music.

cvj on Fri, 18th May 2007 1:42 am 



Bencard, the starting point of Jeg’s question to you was your assertion above that:

“Politics, especially the Philippine brand, is devoid of moral sense so you either play the game or stay out of it, or else you moralize and lose.” – Bencard May 17th, 2007 at 11:03 am

Your original argument was that moralizing in politics gets in the way of winning. You were justifying Jude’s lack of moral sense, particularly in ’sacrificing’ Pacqiao since that is the way politics is done here.

I don’t think you can get any clearer than that so any subequent attempts at spinning will have to wait.

Bencard on Fri, 18th May 2007 2:23 am 



cvj, for once in your life, would you refrain from taking my comments in bits and pieces? read my whole 5/17 11:03 am post which was specifically directed to you, then connect the portion you quoted with the premise i made. i was actually impugning your penchant for making moral judgments on people, from the sitting President of the Philippines to this lowly retiree in the U.S. It was YOU who asserted “Jude’s lack of moral sense”, not me, and don’t you accuse me of “justifying” it.

I don’t think Jude’s commentary on Pacquiao makes him necessarily lacking in “moral sense” as big (in your mind) as yours.

What is clear to you would shame the dark waters of the Pasig River.

Mita on Fri, 18th May 2007 6:29 am 



ay_naku, i didn’t say that. what i’m trying to say is, we can’t correct a mistake with more mistakes. if we accuse someone of cheating- take it all the way and make sure he stays in jail. same with the impeachment. if nothign happens, then we all have to live with it and plan the next move.

the arguing amongst ourselves is what is hurting us more because we are blinded by our emotions and become hurtful and unreasonable. too divisive.

benign0 on Fri, 18th May 2007 7:58 am 



Jon Mariano, re: “Whatever reason people have that they voted for him is their business and it doesn’t look good on you condemning them for it.”

Oh, but it IS our business. When people vote idiots into office, EVERYONE suffers. We make should make it our business to understand why Pinoys sell their votes (by your reasoning that’s none of our business if they do, right?), or why they vote inept drunkard-womanisers and child molesters into sensitive government positions.

It is also why we make the quality of public education an issue — because we do not want a population of intellectually-vacuous people choosing our leaders for us (or eating up politicians’ hollow campaign messages and empty slogans).

It is easy to point fingers at politicians — because by their very nature, they are easy targets. But when have we stopped to reflect whether these politicians we point fingers at merely reflect the character of our society.

Isn’t it a bit bizarre that a country of more than 80 million cannot even produce ONE GOOD LEADER?

Jon Mariano on Fri, 18th May 2007 9:59 am 



I’m glad that you care about how others vote. Please enlighten me (and others who care in this blog) how you’re going to correct the problem?

My personal stand is to do what I think is right (which includes those whom you look down to I’m sure believe the same given their own circumstances and situations) and “influence” others (my family, circle of friends, etc.) of my way of thinking. After doing that (my part) then I’m not going to condemn anybody if the choices they make turn out to be bad (Erap, Gloria, etc.). That is what I meant when I said that what they do with their “right” is their own business. You care about how people vote, what are you going to do about it?

Jeg on Fri, 18th May 2007 10:02 am 



Bencard: What I was referring to was “judgment” of judgmental people, other than individuals on their own PRIVATE morality, acting as moral policemen.

But that’s what an election is: making judgements. If you deny that there are moral standards by which we can judge, then that’s that. We can’t discuss this any further. But if you agree that there are moral standards of right and wrong that we can apply towards the selection of our candidates and with the conduct of elections and campaigns, then we have to make judgements based on those standards (aside from our judgement on the rightness and wrongness of a candidate’s stand on issues which is a separate thing). We have to, in other words, be judgemental and convince others that our judgement is sound so theyll see things our way.

You’re right, each person is presumed competent to judge his own morality, but the key word here is PRESUMED. The hard question is: is he actually?

Would it be better, in your opinion, if each person is presumed UNABLE to judge his own morality? How would that work?

How could the likes of Jalosjos get elected? This is a tough question to answer. It would be easier if cheating is not a part and parcel of the electoral process here so we can focus on the dynamics of what went on the voters’ mind. Assuming that Jalosjos’s election was fair, we can surmise that the powers-that-be had less credibility to the voters than an evil man like Jalosjos has. This is clear indictment of the powers-that-be, eh? The same is true for the Erap phenomenon as I have pointed out in my post in reply to benign0’s. The university-trained elite, to which benign0 said he belonged, had less credibility than a drunk womanizer. Ouch!

Mita: benigno is right on a lot of points but people refuse to acknowledge his reasoning…

Benign0’s opinions are welcome, but benign0’s contempt, I think, is misplaced. He has contempt for the Filipino masses for not being ‘thinking people’ and gives the university-trained elite a pass even though they, the elite, inflicted a substandard education on them and keeps showing the masses, by way of example, that they, the elite, can get away with anything.

toniong pagod on Fri, 18th May 2007 12:36 pm 



jeg:

there it is. those were the words i was looking for last night. it is very easy for the intelligentsia in this country to cast aspersions at the masses, blaming them for their lack of critical thinking and whatnot.

it’s moving beyond that point that is the hard part.

we’ve a long way to go, and the elite aren’t helping any.

benign0 on Fri, 18th May 2007 12:54 pm 



Actually I beg to differ on the assertion that I reserve nothing more than contempt for the masses.

I may use a lot of politically-incorrect adjectives to describe them, but the results speak for themselves. Whether or not we blame the outcome of our elections on a lack of critical thinking on the part of the masses, the fact remains that there is, in fact, a lack of an ability to critically evaluate issues in Pinoy society in general.

What issues may seem obvious to some (an example would be our pathetically ending up with nothing more than a debate on Charter Change and Impeachment after millions spent in this election) is completely incomprehensible to most (specifically those who continue to harp about whether the elected bozoes will or will not impeach Gloria).

I do not define the Pinoy “masses”, necessarily along economic lines. Rather I define the masses more along the lines of which approach to thinking is subscribed to.

For example, you will see here that the popular (“masa”) approach to regarding the 2007 elections is how it impacts the debate on Cha Cha and Impeachment.

Whereas the less popular (but true-blue “intelligentsia”) approach to regarding the 2007 elections is whether or not any clarity has been gained around where the country is headed over the next decade or two as a result of this quaint exercise.

benj on Fri, 18th May 2007 1:32 pm 



late breaking news! Two KABATAAN Party-list poll watchers abducted and slain by military in Camarines Norte. Only 20 years old….

Jon Mariano on Fri, 18th May 2007 3:23 pm 



If we were doing a controlled debate then you’re in order Benign0. But this is a political blog where anybody can say anything he likes. Just like the whole of the web, you can take anything you like which you think is of value to you. If you prefer to argue on specific lines of arguments then that’s your choice but you can’t force others to like your preference as you are suggesting.

It’s an enjoyable exchange of ideas though.

tagasulung on Fri, 18th May 2007 4:52 pm 



Grabe naman. porke nakapag-aral e feeling nila ay sila na lang ang tama lagi at may karapatang humusga. Susme hijo, anong nalalaman mo sa sitwasyon namin dito na kahit kumayod sa buong maghapon hangang gabi e kakapirangot pa rin ang kita at kung hindi pa umakyat sa mga billbords o mang hostage ng pamilya ay di man lang masisilayan ng gobyerno ang aming kalagayan at kung masilayan man e hanggang duon na lang.

Tapos ipagkakait pa sa amin ang kakaunting perang kinikita namin tuwing eleksyon mula sa mga kandidatong alam naman naming walang pakialam sa amin.

O mamamasamain pa ang pagboto namin sa mga taong nagpamalas na ng kahandaang palitan sa paraang marahas ang gobyernong aming itinatag para pagsilbihan kami ngunit pinagpapasasaan kami.

Kung nakikinabang siguro kami sa kasalukuyang pamamalakad e marahil na ganun din kami mag-isip sa mga “intelektwal” dito. Pero sana naman konting respeto sa maliliit na mamamayan. Yung mga ganung klaseng pag-iisip ng mga nakakaintindi na sila lang ang may karapatang pumili at pagpilian ang nagbubunsod sa mga tulad ni PGMA ninyo na mandaya (at hulinghuli sa tape) huwag lang maluklok sa puwesto ang isang mangmang na FPJ nakalimutan na na ang esensya ng eleksyon sa demokrasya ay ang pagkakaroon ng lider na binoto ng tao, hindi yung kung sino ang tingin ng magagaling na nakakaintindi na dapat mapunta sa liderato ng bansa.

sus ginoo, parepareho lang naman tayong pinaglilingkuran ang sarili sa bawat kagustuhan natin kaya huwag naman sana nating husgahan ang mga tulad naming bumuboto ayon sa realidad na hinaharap namin hindi sa kung ano ang mabuti sa Pilipinas sa bandang hinaharap na sa tingin ninyo ay kaya ninyong sulusyonan. Sa aking pagkakaalala, marami na ring mga tulad ninyong nagisip ng gayon, naluklok sa puwesto, nagkamit ng kapangyarihan at ganun pa rin naman ang sitwasyon ng karamihan sa amin.

Masisisi niyo ba kami kung ipamalas namin sa aming boto ang aming kahandaang tanggapin ang pagkakaroon ng pagpapalit sa sistema?

cvj on Fri, 18th May 2007 5:41 pm 



benign0, you claim that the results speak for themselves, but your conclusions are actually derived from your thought processes. Your analysis, in turn is influenced by your biases, primarily, your high regard for yourself as a member of the true blue intelligentsia and your evident contempt for the masses. That accounts for all the attribution errors that you have been making all these years. Frankly, I believe the mindset you have shown is a major part of the problem because many in the Filipino upper and middle classes think like you. If and when people of your standing start to respect the less fortunate members of our society as equals, then we would be better able to move forward together.

Cesar on Fri, 18th May 2007 5:56 pm 



all i can say that the filipinoes are excellent in choosing the new senators in the past few days during the elections,maybe majority will win are on the opposition and thats good.. bt its okey naman if manalo din si Zubiri at angara para naman may makapasok din sa administration..Have a nice day to all readers and visitors in this website.. im from malaybalay city bukidnon..

benign0 on Fri, 18th May 2007 6:57 pm 



cvj, it is easy for people like us to respect the “less fortunate”.

The real question though is this: do the Pinoy masa respect themselves?

For that matter, do Pinoys have any concept of respect?

True I may have a high regard of myself. But since when has that been a crime. I worked hard to achieve what I achieved. Therefore I owe it to myself to regard myself highly.

Therein lies the real issue. Why is it you think that Pinoys seem to find it chronically challenging to find in them the inclination to regard themselves highly?

Maybe it is because:

(1) we are not willing to work hard enough to achieve enough of what it takes to earn our own self-respect; and,

(2) because we consider it taboo to celebrate our own personal success (kung baga, you are considered to be “mayabang” if you do).

Food for thought, dude.

benj on Fri, 18th May 2007 7:27 pm 



cvj, it is easy for people like us to respect the “less fortunate”.

The real question though is this: do the Pinoy masa respect themselves?

For that matter, do Pinoys have any concept of respect?

True I may have a high regard of myself. But since when has that been a crime. I worked hard to achieve what I achieved. Therefore I owe it to myself to regard myself highly.

Therein lies the real issue. Why is it you think that Pinoys seem to find it chronically challenging to find in them the inclination to regard themselves highly?

Maybe it is because:

(1) we are not willing to work hard enough to achieve enough of what it takes to earn our own self-respect; and,

(2) because we consider it taboo to celebrate our own personal success (kung baga, you are considered to be “mayabang” if you do).

Food for thought, dude.

I whole-heartedly agree! Everyone who has seen how campaigns are run in the provinces would testify to how the poor are reduced to leeches waiting for whatever freebies the candidates can give them. THEY ARE SCUM.

cvj on Fri, 18th May 2007 10:42 pm 



benign0, i have met and interacted with people who have as high self-regard as you, so i realize that it’s a common enough personality trait that cannot be helped. There is no problem with that as long as it does not get in the way of your analysis. As it is, the trouble starts when, in raising yourself up, you then attribute all sorts of defects to those who have not achieved the same level of success as you. You also tend to underestimate the role that luck (good or bad) plays. In doing so, you draw a caricature of the Filipino masa that does not do justice to who they really are. Basing analyses on caricatures has its uses (economists do this with their models all the time) as long one does not confuse these with the real world.

Anyway, even if your sweeping generalization is true, you cannot use the masa’s collective lack of self-respect as an excuse not to respect them in return. Respecting others is a matter of basic human decency, and a prerequisite for a working society. (On a personal level, it is also a sign of how well someone is grounded to reality.)

Watcher of watchers on Fri, 18th May 2007 11:34 pm 



UPn student: Local Iglesia ni Cristo leaders can be bought. Provincial candidates can buy provincial INC leaders, in spite of the municipal INC leaders complaining. I wouldn’t be surprised if the INC chooses the richer candidates. Maybe we can consider this tithing.

Martin Palermo: The Camarines Norte gubernatorial and congressional bets are all allied with the administration. Only the incoming vice governor is “independent”, and he’s also a member of NPC.

ay_naku on Fri, 18th May 2007 11:56 pm 



ay_naku, i didn’t say that. what i’m trying to say is, we can’t correct a mistake with more mistakes. if we accuse someone of cheating- take it all the way and make sure he stays in jail. same with the impeachment. if nothign happens, then we all have to live with it and plan the next move.

the arguing amongst ourselves is what is hurting us more because we are blinded by our emotions and become hurtful and unreasonable. too divisive.

So what should be the next course of action Mita? Let GMA get away scot-free? So if the criminal keeps foiling attempts to bring her to justice, then let’s just live with it and move on?

Too divisive? So the better alternative is to just unite behind GMA? Never mind fair play and justice and the sense of right and wrong, unity is more important? United in what, anyway? Ignominy?

What is the next move?

Bencard on Sat, 19th May 2007 12:08 am 



Jeg:

Hate to dwell on this topic but just one more thing and I’m through.

We agree that each of us is “presumed” to be competent to judge our own morality. In the context of an election, each vote represents our individual “sense of morality” and the ultimate election results represent the collective morality of our society wherein the prevailing moral value (the majority’s) wins. Thus, when candidates like Estrada, Jalosjos, Trillianes, Honasan, Cayetano, Lacson, and Pimentel get elected, it reflects on the kind of “moral sense” the people who elected them possess. Our elected officials are only as moral as the people responsible for putting them into office.

This, I believe, is the essence of benignO’s thesis on our “intellectually- vacuous” electorate and its sad lack of critical-thinking ability.

Bencard on Sat, 19th May 2007 12:19 am 



“Let GMA get away scot-free?” – ay naku.

If you get accused of murder and you are acquitted, would you like to be prosecuted for the same alleged felony again and again until your accuser, somehow find a way to convict you?

cvj on Sat, 19th May 2007 1:06 am 



In the context of an election, each vote represents our individual “sense of morality” and the ultimate election results represent the collective morality of our society wherein the prevailing moral value (the majority’s) wins…Our elected officials are only as moral as the people responsible for putting them into office – Bencard

The above analysis presumes that an individual’s ‘sense of morality‘ can be quantified and simply added together to represent the ‘collective morality of our society‘. It also presumes the absence of contingency, free will and capacity for betrayal and/or redemption on the part of the candidates once elected. Lastly, it takes for granted perfect knowledge by the voters about a candidate’s present and future behavior and ignores the reality that the voters themselves have a limited set of choices.

This, I believe, is the essence of benignO’s thesis on our “intellectually- vacuous” electorate and its sad lack of critical-thinking ability. – Bencard

Setting aside his personality disorder, this is another example of Benign0’s tendency to commit attribution errors, this time blaming the electorate for the weaknesses inherent in the current system of representative democracy, weaknesses which can only be compensated for by a healthy dose of direct democracy.

Bencard on Sat, 19th May 2007 2:27 am 



cvj, the track record of the people i listed, which list, again, you deliberately omitted obviously to slant the point i was trying to make, was public knowledge. Each vote cast for them was cast either because, or in spite, of such knowledge.

Even a “direct democracy” exercised by a majority of “intellectually-vacuous” or morally-challenged people would’nt work.

ay_naku on Sat, 19th May 2007 5:20 am 



“Let GMA get away scot-free?” – ay naku.

If you get accused of murder and you are acquitted, would you like to be prosecuted for the same alleged felony again and again until your accuser, somehow find a way to convict you?

Ay naku. Paano maa-acquit si GMA when she hasn’t even been “tried” yet? She has thwarted all attempts to get the judicial ball rolling through means fair and foul — mostly foul. She has ruthlessly used the vast powers of the presidency — and powers that she doesn’t even legally own — to evade accountability. Ilang rebuffs na ba ang natatanggap nya from the SC? Or would you say na si GMA pa din ang tama at SC ang mali?

You call that being acquitted? Ay naku. Anyway, you are obviously partisan in favor of GMA, no matter how you try to project yourself otherwise. Kahit ano pang ebidensya ang ipakita sayo about her crimes, eh patuloy kang magbubulag-bulagan.

By the way, have you spoken out against the political dynasty of the Arroyos, with Mikey, Dato, and Iggy? I hope so, para naman di ka masyado obvious na sobrang partisan in favor of GMA. Or would you find a way to rationalize that as well? Onga pala, nabasa ko yung comment na na ok lang yung kaso ni Iggy kasi di naman sya malapit na kamag-anak ni GMA.

Well, we are all mostly partisan here anyway. Sana lang huwag na tayong magkunwari. Pro-GMA kung pro-GMA, anti kung anti. Ay naku.

justice league on Sat, 19th May 2007 10:50 am 



Manolo,

I’ve read your work on the “Presidency project”. (Sorry if I got the title wrong since I’m doing this from memory)

I know that Estrada got about 39% of the vote to get elected. But is there analyses already on the distribution of votes according to class? How much of the votes for Estrada came from the masses and how much of the total votes for the Presidency came from the masses too?

cvj on Sat, 19th May 2007 11:40 am 



“the track record of the people i listed, which list, again, you deliberately omitted obviously to slant the point i was trying to make, was public knowledge…” – Bencard May 19th, 2007 at 2:27 am

It is not the public knowledge aspect that i’m questioning but your contention that individual morality can be aggregated into a collective morality and that this can be derived from the choices the voters make. That would require the assumptions that i listed above, all of which do not hold.

(I ommitted your illustrative list of names you gave since i won’t be party to your crude attempt to associate oppositionists with Jalosjos.)

“Even a “direct democracy” exercised by a majority of “intellectually-vacuous” or morally-challenged people would’nt work. – Bencard May 19th, 2007 at 2:27 am

You are right to point out that direct democracy is not meant to substitute for whatever intellectual or moral deficiencies of the voters. It is there to compensate for the weaknesses of representative democracy i.e. the failure of the representatives to truly represent the public interest. When this happens, the people have to step in. That is the rationale for people power and the public sphere.

benign0 on Sat, 19th May 2007 4:52 pm 



cvj, you said: “Anyway, even if your sweeping generalization is true, you cannot use the masa’s collective lack of self-respect as an excuse not to respect them in return”.

If you recall cvj, this is what I said in my previous comment: “it is easy for people like us to respect the ‘less fortunate’. [...] The real question though is this: do the Pinoy masa respect themselves?”

Kung baga we in the elite constantly wax rhetoric about “equality”, “justice”, and “freedom” for “all”. But do *da masa* really comprehend (or even care to comprehend) these things?

Same with “respect”. We find it easy to draw on our robust ethical frameworks (honed by good upbringing, breeding, and education) to respect the least of our citizens. But put yourself in their shoes for a minute. Do you think the average kanto boy really respects other people the way we presume to?

In my experience, really rich people tend to treat their servants with far more respect that middle-to-lower-income employers of domestic help.

Go figure.

rego on Sat, 19th May 2007 7:32 pm 



“Our elected officials are only as moral as the people responsible for putting them into office.”

Bencard,

I couldn’t agree for more!

Bencard on Sat, 19th May 2007 9:09 pm 



ay_naku, about the “guilt” of PGMA that you are blabbering about, I have debated this point, I think exhaustively, with worthy contrarians, e.g. mlq3, cvj, abe margalllo, etc. I don’t think i want to revisit those issues with you, but you may, if you want, look at the previous posts on the matter since about October 2006.

About Dato Arroyo, I’m from the district of Camarines Sur that he will be representing and I’m glad he won.
I don’t see any problem with his joining Mikey in Congress, a much, much larger body than the senate. Iggy is an uncle and not a direct relative of PGMA.

ay_naku on Sat, 19th May 2007 10:13 pm 



Thanks for copping out again Bencard. That’s what you always do when cornered.

ay_naku on Sat, 19th May 2007 10:16 pm 



And Bencard, please stop blabbering about political dynasties when you can’t even be consistent about it. It just exposes your biases even more.

Bencard on Sun, 20th May 2007 12:37 am 



ay-naku, the beauty of this blog is that i have the luxury of debating with whom i consider worthy of my time, when i want to. go heckle with your own kind.

ay_naku on Sun, 20th May 2007 5:43 am 



Bencard, another beauty of this blog is I can respond to (or–in your words–heckle) specific people whom I choose. And right now I choose the good man from the US of A. You can choose not to pay any attention to my comments of course. But I will continue to expose your obvious biases and logical inconsistensies.

I mean, I can’t “heckle with my own kind”, since they’d be too smart for it. Better to bug someone whose arguments I can easily dismantle.

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