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Survey shocker
By mlq3 Posted in Events Mode on May 15, 2007 66 Comments 1 min read
Arab News Newspaper: Philippine Govt Annoyed by Public Opinion Previous Don't panic Next

Pulse Asia national exit poll results:

6 GO 4 TU 2 Indep

1. Loren Legarda 58.5%
2. Francis Escudero 53.3%
3. Manuel Villar 49.8%
4. Panfilo Lacson 46.4%
5. Francis Pangilinan 44.6%
6. Benigno Aquino III 42.6%
7. Edgardo Angara 41.4%
8. Joker Arroyo 36.8%
9. Antonio Trillanes IV 35.4%
10. Miguel Zubiri 34.9%
11. Gregorio Honasan 34.6%
12. Ralph Recto 34.3%
13. Alan Peter Cayetano 31%
14. Prospero Pichay 30.4%
15.Aquilino  Pimentel III 28.5%
16. Sonia Roco 28.4%
17. Michael Defensor 28.2%
18. Vicente Sotto III 26.2%

This kind of limits who still has a fighting chance. Report on the results up on ABS-CBNNews.com.

As Atheista.net says, though… Hold your horses!


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  1. Looks like Abalos delivered a heavy blow to Cayetano.

    I wonder what the SOB got in exchange.

    Although Alan Peter, interviewed on ANC after the exit polls, is still confident he will make it Hope he does..

  2. It’s sad to see how one can get screwed a few months before the elections and gets screwed again the day after. Poor guy, the system got him this time.

  3. I think Pulse Asia said that even Roco, Sotto and Defensor had slim chances of making it.

    That being said, the margin between 12th and 13th is almost 3% already. Isn’t that the margin of error? But then again, in 2004, Alfredo Lim was ranked 14th in exit polls and he actually finished 8th.

  4. Pulse Asia said in the post-analysis that if Cayetano gets the stray votes, he’d jump up to #8. As it is, I think his confidence is well placed. He did say that he’s always in the top 10, even in TU strongholds.

  5. As of now from exit-polls and tally-to-date, the only ones who can rest easy will be Legarda, Escudero, Villar, Lacson.

  6. But the meteoric rise of Trillanes cannot be overlooked here! The guy was never in the top 15 of any survey prior to the elections. This is insane!!! I think MLQ is to blame for all this. hehe

  7. History ulit:

    2001 had Recto finishing at 12th and Honasan at 13th. Luckily for Honasan, there were 13 slots up for grabs that year due to Guingona’s appointment as Vice President.

  8. AMA unofficial now has Aquino (1,349K) in 1st place; Escudero (1344K) in 2nd… Trillanes (839K) 11th; Honasan (837K) 13th.

  9. Hinde ba naipakita ng di maaasahang tama yang exit polls. Yung nagiinuman sa kareoke bar na kagagaling lang sa botohan ng tanungin e si Victor Wood daw ang binoto nila. E kulelat si Victor sa bilangan, diba?

    Bottom line, magandang pag-usapan at mag haka-haka sa mga unofficial count, pero mabuti na ang maghintay ng tunay na bilang, net of dayaan.

    Kita niyo si Pacman, boxer talaga, umaasa pang maka score ng knockout sa 12th round. Hehehe…

  10. One has to remind Doc Bautista if he runs again in 2010, to get himself put in jail about 4 or 5 weeks before elections.

  11. Hinde ba naipakita ng di maaasahang tama yang exit polls. Yung nagiinuman sa kareoke bar na kagagaling lang sa botohan ng tanungin e si Victor Wood daw ang binoto nila. E kulelat si Victor sa bilangan, diba?

    It’s all about statistics and the factors are pretty much the same. If a candidate had more voters, then he/she would get a representative count on a systematically selected population. Victor Wood will got votes in the exit polls, that’s for sure.

  12. “But the meteoric rise of Trillanes cannot be overlooked here! The guy was never in the top 15 of any survey prior to the elections. This is insane!!! I think MLQ is to blame for all this. hehe”

    I think the guy cheated. 🙂

    Kidding aside, his strong showing is indicative of the real sentiments of the people viz this current regime. Imagine, without a cohesive campaign machinery and in jail at that, he managed to land inside the top 12 this early. Even if at the end he doesn’t make it to the magic 12 (which I doubt), it will still be a slap on the face of GMA.

    Mabuhay ang Magdalo!

  13. if i am not mistaken, the ABS-CBN/SWS Exit Polls nung 2004 ang kauna-unahang pagkakataon kung saan hindi gaanong katulad ng actual results ng COMELEC yung naging exit poll survey. i forgot the explanation of SWS about that. hehe. di kasi ako matandain ng kasaysayan 😀

  14. my pro-gloria neighbor:

    ballots came from precincts,remember…prison precincts?!

    —–

    lenny kravitz’s lines:

    So many tears I’ve cried
    So much pain inside
    But baby it ain’t over ’til it’s over

  15. real sentiments? yeah right. for drama. mawala na ang sense and sensibility basta may drama sa mundo…

    not another gringo…plus andun pa rin si gringo!?!?! yun lang naman 2 na yan eh…plus cayetano pala…and pimentel dyunyor…for making the senate a family gathering..

    i hope i am tuned to wow mali…

  16. Recent commentary from BBC.co.uk:

    Initial results for local areas are expected as early as Thursday, but it could be weeks before the final outcome for the Senate and House of Representatives is known.
    An exit poll by ABS-CBN television in Manila suggested that the opposition could win at least nine of the 12 Senate seats up for grabs.
    ..
    But it is thought the 275-seat House of Representatives will remain in the hands of President Gloria Arroyo’s supporters. This would thwart any attempt by the opposition to launch a third bid to impeach her over allegations she fixed the 2004 presidential election.
    =========

    With both impeacment and concon unlikely, then the next two years will probably be more of the Presidentiables positioning themselves for the 2010.

  17. With both impeacment and concon unlikely, then the next two years will probably be more of the Presidentiables positioning themselves for the 2010.

    Yes, excellent point. It’s going to be an open race between Legarda, Lacson and Villar + de Castro and Mar Roxas on the sidelines. The shocker of all shockers will be if Chiz decides to go for the top post this early. I doubt if Legarda, Lacson or Villar will opt for a VP slot in 2010. I can see Chiz choosing to be a VP first – but to whom?

  18. Pulse Asia Executive Director Ana Tabunda (on the exit poll methodology):

    …If he or she is registered and did not vote, the interview would still push through…

    ?

  19. De Castro will not win in 2010 if he decides to run for President.
    Mar Roxas should just run for President of Cubao.
    Villar will run but he needs a younger VP like Chiz to win.
    Lacson and Legarda might team up.
    I think an Escudero/Aquino team is unbeatable in 2010 Presidential elections. Escudero supported by Danding and Aquino by Mommy Cory.

  20. Woke up this morning (E.S.T.) to the news that the nationwide Pulse Asia exit poll shows both cayetano and pimentel out of the magic 12, while pichay and defensor inching up within striking distance.

    The amusing part of the report is that, not missing a beat, cayetano threatens impeachment of abalos, claiming
    in his usual hateful way, that his slip in the poll is being caused by the the comelec’s rule to treat a vote to just “cayetano” a stray vote. He obviously ignores the fact, that it was only an exit poll, and not the actual vote, so how could that be affected by the comelec rule? Watch him blabber about “cheating” if he loses.

  21. Good point Supremo, but don’t you think Chiz is too young to run for president in 2010? He’ll beat the age requirement by mere months. What is he going to do afterwards? Run for the Senate again? hehe

    Don’t you sense hatred between Legarda and Lacson?

  22. Bencard, on your explanation of the difference between an exit poll and the actual vote, your second paragraph is incongruent with the first one. How can one be inching up within striking distance in an exit poll (as opposed to a vote count)? I think you need your morning cup of coffee.

  23. Gloria Regina should read the writing on the wall. Trillanes making it is surprising indeed. But this is just an exit poll.

    Noynoy Aquino as VP? Que comico!

  24. Mita,

    Mas gusto mo ba si chavit singson at si tito sotto kaysa kay kokoy o kay alan peter?

  25. benj,

    Magsaysay was 42 when he became President. Tony Blair was 43 when he became Prime Minister. Escudero should ride the wave while he can or he might become another puro pa-cute like Mar Roxas.

    Hatred between Legarda and Lacson? They deserve each other. I think Lacson can only run with a female team mate and Legarda with only a strong male team mate.

  26. bencab,

    Alan Peter was on TV and he was not bothered by the exit poll. All he said was he would rank muh higher if not for Abalos’ chicanery.

    Read the final decision of the Comelec, en banc, where they said Juju registering as Peter was “a clear attempt” to confuse voters and to make a “mockery” of the election.

    Then check the timeline of the Comelec re Alan Peter’s complaint against your boy JuJu.

    You ever wonder why, if it was such a clear attempt, it took Abalos and his gang the entire campaign period to see it?

    Even a truly rabid Gloria supporter like Tony Lopez saw the malice behind the Comelec’s behavior towards Alan Peter. Check the link MLQ provided in his previous post.

    Like I told you so many times before – if you want to be taken seriously, DO YOUR HOMEWORK before you switch on your computer!!!

    Now go drink your coffee and start reading.

  27. billing might cause the problem:

    Lacson before Legarda? Or Legarda before Lacson?

    (check out newsbreak online’s story re: loren-ping billing problem in GO’s mnemonics/acronym)

  28. Lacson before Legarda? Or Legarda before Lacson?

    It doesn’t matter because they will not win in a presidential election if Escudero is in another presidential team. I think the martial law babies’ generation will flex its muscle during the next presidential election. You can actually see it now in the senatorial race. I think at least 6 in the top 12 are in their early 40s or younger. Say goodbye to Gloria’s generation.

  29. the victory of GO candidates in the media counts of GMA and ABS-CBN and in the partial results of the NAMFREL quickcount only shows how much distrust the majority of Filipinos have towards Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and the administration politicians. hopefully, the same “trends” established by the GMA and ABS-CBN media counts and the NAMFREL quick counts would be the same when the COMELEC count gets underway- pwera daya.

    to GO: sana naman ay tulungan ng partido, most especially the topnotchers (Escudero, Legarda, Lacson, Villar and Aquino) sina Alan Peter Cayetano, Antonio Trillanes at Koko Pimentel kasi itong tatlong ito ang may pinakamalaking risk na pwedeng dayain sa official count ng COMELEC. hopefully GO and the voting public would be more vigilant to protect the votes of Alan Cayetano, Trillanes and Koko.

  30. buencab, who cares if you don’t take me seriously? i’m not a candidate for anything, and i don’t need anything from you and the likes of you.

  31. the victory of GO candidates in the media counts of GMA and ABS-CBN and in the partial results of the NAMFREL quickcoun

    Son, the count is not over yet. Don’t count the “eggs” until the “chicks” are hatched.

  32. So Alan Cayetano has been screwed big time. A clear injustice has been done to him. So what are we, the people, going to do about it? Wala na naman? They (administration/comelec) get away with their shenanigans again? Haaayyy… what has happened to our capacity for outrage and sense of justice…

  33. Lesson learned from the Cayetano debacle: Mess with FG Mike Arroyo at your own risk.

    And as usual, it seems we’re all taking this sitting down. The most bizarre, incongruous aberrations have become perfectly normal for us.

  34. So Alan Cayetano has been screwed big time.

    Latest Namfrel Count is that Cayetano is still in Magic 12.

    Hindi pa man bumabagsak ang ulan, nagsisigaw na basa na siya. Shees.

  35. The Cat, I’m not talking about his place in the race. I’m talking about his particular case: votes for Cayetano (without the first name) are being considered stray votes by and large, because of the comelec’s “ineptitude” — I put it inside quotes because to me it’s pretty obvious that it’s really malicious sabotage. Comelec dilly-dallied for so long regarding Cayetano’s case and then a mere three days before the elections finally ruled that his namesake Joselito Cayetano is actually a nuisance candidate — but it hasn’t been ruled with finality yet, so votes for “Cayetano” aren’t being counted. Ano ba naman, halatang-halata naman, huwag na tayong magtanga-tangahan please lang. Sheesh.

    THAT is definitely being screwed big-time, regardless of Cayetano’s final place in the counting.

  36. I’m very disappointed in that survey seeing Alan Peter Cayetano on the 13th position! Damn that Abalos! I hope Cayetano fights to the bones on Supreme Court! We’re all her to support him!

  37. buencamino, i haven’t asked anyone on here who their preference was – out of courtesy. i only take on whoever volunteers their preferences. i’m not answering your question.

    ay_naku, i believe you could hardly call it Comelec’s ineptitude! looks like on cayetano’s case, they made damned sure they did a “good job” of it. i agree he was screwed, and on this case, i say, “do unto others….”

    as you yourself said, “The most bizarre, incongruous aberrations have become perfectly normal for us.”

  38. It’s going to be another long count and there will be charges and countercharges.
    AMA has Trillanes #10 at 980,600; Honasan #13 at 955,600, Recto #11 at 971,200, Zubiri #12 at 957,900.
    NAMFREL has Zubiri #10 at 533,000; Honasan #12 at 521,900; Recto #11 at 526,600; Trillanes #14 at 505,200.

    Honasan falling by the wayside will be progress!!!
    And between Roco and Trillanes, Roco’s the better to be in the Senate.

  39. Will the SWS come out with the results of their own exit polls?

    Im a bit disheartened by the poor showing of Martin Bautista. I voted for him (and for Ang Kapatiran) knowing that they wouldnt win, but to make a statement. I was hoping that if Dr. Bautista ranked higher than Richard Gomez, Cesar Montano, Tito Sotto, or Chavit Singson, then it would be sending a clear signal. I got the distinct impression that Martin Bautista was carried by a lot of bloggers. I guess blogger influence isnt such a big factor yet.

  40. Even if at the end he doesn’t make it to the magic 12 (which I doubt), it will still be a slap on the face of GMA.

    You sre only looking at the Metro manila poll results.

    Only 7 per cent of the precincts have been included in the tally. Ang kuko ay hindi ang buong kamay o katawan.

    Don’t wonder who did the campaigning for him.

  41. Does anyone have the pre-election poll and the exit-poll for the Lower House? Foreign press keeps saying that Pro-GMA retains strong Lower House control which means impeachment ain’t gonna happen, any reason to think dem foren-dyers are blowing smoke?

  42. Jeg, Martin Bautista was an attempt at a unified middle class/middle forces vote, i.e. both the B&WM and Let’s move on factions. His poor showing is either because of the effectiveness of the Middle class boycott/apathy or maybe it reflects our actual numbers. Either way, that means we will suffer the same marginalization that the left experienced for 20 years starting 1986 with their own disastrous boycott. IMHO, deservedly so. Maybe next time, the three can run for party list instead since it looks like they would at least hit 10%.

  43. ako, OK na sa akin na nakaraos din tayo ng panibagong eleksyon. Noon kasagsagan ng Garci Tape malakas ang kaba ko na kung saan na patutungo ang bansa…

    Whoever wins isa lang ang malinaw sa akin. Hindi nag makakapag 12-0 ang opposistion at mas lalong hindi rin ang admin.

    Hindi rin ako naniniwala kay Manolo, na yung mananalo sa na taga TU ay hindi orig na maka Gloria. Kasi Kung titingnan mo ang mananalo na sa opposition eh hindi naman orig na opposition. Villar, Noynoy, Kiko hinid rin naman orig na opposition. Even Legarda and Cayetano is an orig Lakas eh. Nag opposistionlang nag mag eto dahil wala ng lugar para sa kanila sa admin at sa tingin nila makaksakay sila sa anti GMA sentiment. Ang orig lang na opposition ay si Escudero at Lacson at Pimentel.

    Nakatuwa rin yung pagkalaglag ni Cayetano sa Magic twelve sa exit survey at si Pimentel. Gusto ko rin yung pagkawala ni Tito Sotto sa winning circle. Dapat lang naman kasing magkasama sama sila NIla Coseteng, Tessie Aquino at John Osmena eh.

    Trillanes, hmmmmm , he was actually on my original list of three that I posted here. Because I like his being idealistic. But then nawalan nag gana kasi wala rin naman sinasabing maganda. It would be entersting though if he won. Para makita talaga natin hangang san nag ba ang galing nya na pinag yayabang nya.

    Mas gusto ko yata na hindi na si Gringo analo. Si Trillanes na lang. Totala nakita na rin naman natin kung hanggang saan lang talaga ang maibubuga ng taong to. Dapat samahan na lang nya si la Sotto, Oreta, Osmena at Coseteng….

  44. “I got the distinct impression that Martin Bautista was carried by a lot of bloggers. I guess blogger influence isnt such a big factor yet.”

    Hi Jeg, What do you base this impression on? Just curious. I study blogs.

  45. The next presidential election would be very interesting too. Because most of the top contenders are coming from the opposition kuno. Villar, Lacson, Escudero. I wonder how they will be throwing mud at each other. mmmmmmm, another version of thruth that will definitely come out. finally come out….

    I guess it will be De Castro and Roxas that will win.

  46. Maybe next time, the three can run for party list instead since it looks like they would at least hit 10%.

    Party list for the marginalized middle class. Sounds about right.

    Carla:Hi Jeg, What do you base this impression on? Just curious. I study blogs.

    Probably baseless because I dont visit a lot of blogs. MLQ, Austero, cvj, plus a couple of others all carried Bautista. Call it my unscientific random sampling.

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