Palace: don’t destabilize emotions (!)

WTF statement of the day: Palace to GO: Stop destabilizing emotions . OK I just love it. I am now thinking of 101 uses for the new phrase, “destabilized emotions.” Will Human Resources managers accept it as a medical condition? An occupational hazard? A justification for Viagra prescriptions?

Michael Defensor concedes defeat (charming account of the press conference, courtesy of The Nosy Intern). His concession statement has sparked some controversy:

I concede to ease the tension on the ground and to dismiss [a] notion that there may be illegal acts committed to attain my victory. I concede so as to enjoin my allies and friends who may want, in their desire to have me win, commit acts inimical to the essence of democracy and fair play in an electoral battle…My defeat is not the President’s loss. Her role is to ensure that democracy is respected and that she has accomplished. The market is up and the peso is strongest. That is the applause of appreciation…

Class act, or taking one for the team? Vincula says, it’s a class act. Alleba Politics thinks so, too. Bunker Chronicles says its a timely signal. Some commenters in Ellen Tordesillas’ blog say he took one for the team -or derailed the chances of other TU members. Team Unity won’t budge: it will continue to object, your honor. NCR Command wants troops back in Metro slums: this is known as insurance.

Namfrel says there are only a million votes left to count, and it will be a tight race indeed for the 11th to 14th slots:

Most of the votes would come from Mindanao region particularly in the Autonomous Region for Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) comprise of Basilan, Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao, Shariff Kabunsuan, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi.

Other provinces are Tarlac, Bohol, Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Norte, Pasig City, Mandaluyong and Caloocan.

If you take a look at Inquirer.net’s listing of vote tallies, you’ll notice a new, fourth column, “Comelec (Reporter’s Tally)”. Apparently, the Comelec’s official, audited canvass reports leads to a total that is two days behind what the press reports.

Meanwhile, Maguindanao’s votes yet again fail to make the cut, even as more revelations are made about the conduct of the voting. The Comelec’s embattled Commissioner Rene Sarmiento says he won’t quit (while fellow commissioner Borra basically called him a wimp). He’s embattled over his staking his reputation in backing Comelec officers in Lanao. He has made a good proposal: why not hold MRMM elections ahead of the rest of the country in the future?

Manila Rep. Amado Bagatsing does his bit to fan the smoldering embers of the Speakership fight;  but the interesting wrinkle here is the decision of the Liberal Party to set aside its internal differences and vote as a united bloc -in support of Rep. Garcia of Cebu. Whether the Inquirer report supersedes the Manila Times report that opposition members saying the Kampi challenge to Lakas in the House is a ploy, I don’t know: the Times says the whole thing’s a means to obtain dominant minority party status for Kampi, shutting out the opposition. The Malaya editorial maintains it’s still a shadow play to exact concessions:

There is no love lost between Kampi and Lakas of De Venecia. Last month’s election saw the open break between the two administration parties. In the local contests, where the incumbent was Lakas, the challenger allied himself with Kampi. And vice versa.

Arroyo, by allowing Kampi to challenge Lakas, was seen as consolidating her political base and, in effect, putting De Venecia in his place as the junior partner in the administration coalition.

There were also speculations that Arroyo was displeased when De Venecia pressed for Charter change despite a clear overwhelming public opposition to it. It was Arroyo’s dwindling political capital which was being frittered on the unpopular initiative when the intended beneficiary was De Venecia, with his ambition to become prime minister under a parliamentary form of government.

So is it Garcia then as the next Speaker? We would not bet on it. Joe the Venetian has an ace up his sleeve. He could threaten to throw the support of Lakas congressmen loyal to him behind a new impeachment campaign expected to be mounted by the opposition. And Kampi would fold.

But Kampi could exact concessions in the form of chairmanships of powerful House committees. Everybody would be happy, which is what we suspect all this talk about ousting De Venecia is all about.

The Magnificent Atty. Perez has his own take on the ruling coalition’s intramurals, and places his bets on Speaker de Venecia. But from those who scrutinize the House landscape, the hard-core support of de Venecia’s usually estimated at only 20 congressmen. Not a big block. But the effort continues, with administration insiders attempting media leaks to pressure the President to step in publicly.

There’s a timely reflection on the May elections and past elections, too, penned by Steve Rood in In Asia.

Economy posts best performance, on a quarterly basis, in 17 years. Election spending had nothing to do with it? Banko Sentral says the growth in remittances from overseas will slow. One reason may be: Filipino domestic workers face difficulties in finding jobs due to new wage policy.  Businessmen say they want the economic provisions of the Constitution amended, or at least, some of their pet laws passed. If Congress convenes as a constituent assembly, that’s one opening for Charter Change, isn’t it? How helpful.

Marina’s offices destroyed in Manila’s Port Area. The end for investigations into disasters like the M/V Solar sinking.

Overseas, Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai guilty of election fraud and Thailand’s Thai Rak Thai party dissolved, executives banned. A very interesting article on the expected demise of Malaysia’s auto industry: Bailout Alert in Malaysia. An excerpt:

Certainly the country is far different today than when Mahathir first became prime minister, to a large extent because of his vision. The highway system has transformed travel. Kuala Lumpur is a gleaming, modern Asian capital, crisscrossed by excellent expressways, its people far more prosperous than anyone would have dreamed 25 years ago. But huge amounts of money also have simply been wasted or lost to corruption, raising profound questions over whether Mahathir took the right development path.

Perwaja Steel, designed to spearhead Malaysia’s industrialization, lost US$800 million and its chairman was arrested. The Petronas Towers have been superseded as the world’s tallest buildings after contributing to a real estate glut in KL. Petronas, the national oil company and perennial cash cow for bailouts, occupies one entire 88-storey tower. The super corridor has fallen far short of its goal of turning Malaysia into an IT powerhouse as the tech boom has bypassed the country and largely gone to India. The Bakun Dam, considered a major white elephant because there is nowhere to sell the power it would generate, has yet to be built.

Sweden opens a virtual embassy. A health saga: Man with dangerous form of TB held in isolation.

My column today is Islamic democracy. It makes reference to these articles: Abp Quevedo: is there another way of choosing leaders in the ARMM? and Islam and Liberal Democracy: Two Visions Of Reformation. These Wikipedia articles are also useful: Islamic Democracy, the Caliphate, and Sunni and Shia Islam. Also, take a look at an interesting map of the geographical distribution of traditions of Islam. In Mindanews, Patricio Diaz has a two part series titled “Unacceptable Justifications”: read Part 1 and Part 2.

In the blogosphere, Anthologies wonders why government just doesn’t take a strong approach to provinces that fail to conduct elections properly:

It is all too clear that the supposedly elected officials in Maguindanao are there because of cheating. The election was a sham. Why not place the entire province for the department of interior and local government to supervise. Do away with the elected offices. The more radical way is for the legislature to dissolve the province and the local government units in it, and apportion it to the adjacent provinces.

I asked a similar question in Inquirer Current not so long ago.

Supporters of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez try to defend his efforts to bring Venezuela one step closer to the Castro style of totalitarianism. Or so says NewsBusters, which points to an Associated Press reporter defending Chavez’s decision not to renew the franchise of a critical TV station. culturekitchen does a roundup of manifestations for support for Chavezismo, and points to Venezuela Analysis whose roundup rebuts the NewsBusters type of criticism; the analyst asked human rights advocates whether non-renewal of a franchise was a free speech issue or not:

Jose Miguel Vivanco of Human Rights Watch clarified for me that “broadcasting companies in any country in the world, especially in democratic countries, are not entitled to renewal of their licenses. The lack of renewal of the contract, per se, is not a free speech issue. Just per se.” A free speech issue arises if the non-renewal is to punish a certain editorial line.

Still, Benoît Hervieu of Reporters Without Borders in Paris said that, while he could not be certain, he thought US and European governments would stop short of non-renewal despite RCTV’s “support for the coup.”

“I think that there would be pressure to make a replacement at the head of the channel. But I don’t think that they would not renew the concession. There is a risk in that story. There are 3000 employees at RCTV. So I don’t think that even in a country like [the United States or France], a government would risk putting 3000 people in the streets,” he said.

Could it be that governments like Venezuela have the theoretical right not to renew a broadcast license, but that no responsible government would ever do it? In the United States, this may seem plausible, since broadcast licenses here seem to be forever…

[For] Carlos Lauría of the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ)… non-renewal itself is not the problem. His concern is the process by which the decision was reached. “I assume in the US there would be a process. The FCC would follow protocol. This is what hasn’t happened in Venezuela. We’re not arguing that the concession should be renewed, should be given to RCTV. We’re just saying that there’s no process to evaluate if it should be.”…

On process, they have a legitimate point. The government seems to have made the decision without any administrative or judicial hearings. Unfortunately, this is what the law, first enacted in 1987, long before Chavez entered the political scene, allows. It charges the executive branch with decisions about license renewal, but does not seem to require any administrative hearing. The law should be changed, but at the current moment when broadcast licenses are up for renewal, it is the prevailing law and thus lays out the framework in which decisions are made…

But is support for the violent overthrow of an elected government really protected political speech? Vivanco acknowledges that RCTV “obviously probably sympathized with the coup.” But, he says, “it is a matter of free speech.”…

If RCTV were the only major source of opposition to the government, the loss of its voice would be troubling. It would also be disturbing if the RCTV case forced others to tone down legitimate opposition. But Greg Wilpert, a sociologist living in Venezuela, declares, “It is the height of absurdity to say that there’s a lack of freedom of press in Venezuela.”

Of the top four private TV stations, three air mostly entertainment and one, Globovisión, is a 24-hours news channel. On Globovisión, Wilpert says, “the opposition is very present. They pretty much dominate it. And in the others, they certainly are very present in the news segments.”

Regarding the print media, Wilpert told me, “There are three main newspapers. Of those three, two are definitely very opposition. The other one is pretty neutral. I would say, [the opposition] certainly dominates the print media by far. There’s no doubt about that.”

“I think some of the TV stations have slightly moderated [their opposition to the government] not because of intimidation, but because they were losing audience share. Over half of the population is supportive of Chávez . They’ve reduced the number of anti-Chávez programs that they used to have. But those that continue to exist are just as anti-Chávez as they were before.”

Fellow Latin American’s aren’t pleased with Chavez, and neither is a big chunk of the Venezuelan population.See Gateway Pundit for a roundup.See the Pajamas Media roundup, too.

inkblots on NGO’s having to be self-supporting. Whispers in the Loggia on the Saturday canonization of Marie-Eugenie Milleret, which droves of graduates of the Assumption are attending in Rome.

Many thanks to The Philippine Experience and to Arbet Loggins @ Multiply for the birthday greetings -and to all the kind readers who greeted me, too.

Technorati Tags: Blogging, Charter Change, constitution, elections, human rights, ideas, journalism, media, philippines, politics, president, Senate, Thailand

The Long View: Islamic democracy

The Long View: Islamic democracy

THE LONG VIEW
Islamic democracy 

By Manuel L. Quezon III
Inquirer
First Posted 02:19am (Mla time) 05/31/2007

 

There was a fascinating account in Mindanews last Tuesday about a proposal by Archbishop Orlando Quevedo to establish a kind of Electoral College system in Muslim Mindanao — and some reactions to the proposal. Quevedo said that based on his observations in Muslim Mindanao since the 1960s, “there is a distinct traditional political structure — with possible cultural and, perhaps, religious elements — at work in how leaders are elected.” Traditional leaders in the community, he said, decide for the community: their status ensures acceptance of their decisions as the will of the whole.

Mindanews reported that Quevedo shared his observations following the claim by Norie Unas that Team Unity’s 12-0 sweep in Maguindanao province was the product of the Islamic tradition of Shura (consultations). Allegations of fraud have engulfed not only Maguindanao but also the provinces of Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-tawi, Shariff Kabunsuan and Lanao del Sur and Marawi City, which make up the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM). Some Muslim leaders have denounced the allegations as a manifestation of the lack of understanding of Muslim culture, made worse by the traditional distrust, even contempt, Filipino Christians have for their Muslim fellow citizens.

The biases are certainly there. You only have to recall the effort of the late Max Soliven to deny the Muslims a prayer room in Greenhills (an effort loudly, and effectively, opposed in turn not only by Muslims but also by Christians who were upset by Soliven’s campaign) to confirm these. But certainly it is wrong to think that the problems spring from a culture of electoral fraud that is unique to Mindanao and, somehow, uniquely Islamic. To think so would be slander against Mindanaoans and Islam.

Quevedo proposed that “ARMM elections should be by a council of elders or the like in a given municipality or province.” Some Filipino Muslims have taken up Quevedo’s proposal. But there have been objections, too, from those who’ve studied the region’s history. Historian Patricio Abinales, for one, says such proposals are just a thinly disguised effort to perpetuate a traditional leadership that has ill-served its constituents.

In a 1996 article, titled “Islam and Liberal Democracy: Two Visions of Reformation,” (http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/rwright.htm), Robin Wright points out that “Islam … is not lacking in tenets and practices that are compatible with pluralism. Among these are the traditions of ijtihad (interpretation), ijma (consensus), and shura (consultation).”

The real question is: Is the Shura fundamentally opposed to the democracy practiced in, and expected of, Filipinos everywhere else?

Filipinos, whether Muslims or Christians, value their elders; and regardless of their faith, many families — the basic bedrock of all our regional cultures — prefer to arrive at decisions, including those related to voting, by consensus. But that is irrelevant to allegations of fraud; the counting is the primary issue now, and mathematics involves no religion. Other problems — e.g., voter intimidation and bribery — are not unique to the ARMM; they are nationwide. The problem is, the opportunities for getting away with fraud are larger in places at the periphery (geographically and resource-wise) of the nation — like the ARMM — except when the national media and election watchdogs make a concerted effort, as they’re doing now, to focus on how voting and counting take place.

Whether Christian or Muslim, local leaders are tempting “preys” to national leaders who want to use them. Local leaders hope that national support will give them an edge when it comes to their primary goal: to stay in power and deny it, in turn, to their opponents. When an administration has a fighting chance, nationally, there’s no shortage of local leaders willing and able to do their part; when an administration faces a public tide of resentment, the fight becomes particularly crucial, and media attention and civic participation can be countered. National and local leaders connive to delay matters so that votes can be manipulated strategically: hence the focus on the Muslim Mindanao provinces where the voting has been delayed, and where local leaders can claim they can deliver blocs of votes, and where media are most hard-pressed to report the real score.

So let’s keep our perspective. Islam then, is not, by its nature, fundamentally opposed to, or incompatible with, democracy; though there may be particular interpretations of Islam that are less comfortable with democracy. And so the productive dialogue involves non-Muslims respectfully asking if the tradition of Islam demands the kind of political reexamination Quevedo has proposed.

Wright points out that the debate over Islam and democracy is one that interests the entire Islamic world: “Overall, the obstacles to political pluralism in Islamic countries are not unlike the problems earlier faced in other parts of the world: secular ideologies such as Ba’athism in Iraq and Syria, Pancasila in Indonesia, or lingering communism in some former Soviet Central Asian states brook no real opposition…. Rigid government controls over everything, from communications in Saudi Arabia and Brunei to foreign visitors in Uzbekistan … also isolate their people from democratic ideas and debate on popular empowerment.”

To think of Islam as anti-modern, anti-democratic — and to suggest that because of this, democracy can’t be practiced in Islamic societies — is a flawed notion and might actually be a kind of subconscious throwback to the biases and prejudices that have led to troubled Muslim-Christian and Muslim-secular relations.

Arab News Newspaper: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire

Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire Manuel L. Quezon III

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There is a reason many crimes take place under cover of darkness: Most people tend to be if not good, then decent, and law-abiding. There is a reason election controversies end up focusing on provinces in Muslim Mindanao: These places are shrouded in a kind of political darkness. And it has less to do with the culture of Filipino Muslims as a whole, and everything to do with the culture of their leaders — and the relationship they’ve built with their Christian counterparts in the national government. For the Philippines, national senatorial elections began in 1941, but it wasn’t until 1949 that Muslim areas became identified with electoral fraud. Lanao in particular, sadly went down in history as a place where the birds and the bees, and even the dead, voted. What has not gone down in history is how in the next election, in 1951, Ramon Magsaysay ensured clean elections were held in the same place. This example from more than half a century ago, should be partnered with another example from not so long ago. The acknowledged warlord of Lanao during the Marcos years, Ali Dimaporo, was feared by politicians everywhere, and boasted he could “deliver” votes. The late Comelec Commissioner Haydee Yorac famously visited him, allowed him to flirt with her, and the result was a friendly Dimaporo and clean elections in Lanao. The requirements then, are basic, when it comes to elections in Muslim Mindanao: For the national government to insist on clean elections; for the local Muslim leaders to be reassured they are part of the political process, so long as they guarantee the autonomy of their constituents in expressing their national preferences. In short, national leaders determine whether an election will be about fraud, and selling votes to the highest bidder, or whether it will be about about Filipino Muslims being allowed to express their choices freely, and without molestation, when it comes to national elections. It works both ways. A combination of partisan complaints (from the Genuine Opposition and its candidates), the efforts of citizens’ organizations seeking clean elections (Namfrel and the PPCRV), and media reporting, took the votes of Maguindanao basically out of contention. The administration Team Unity bragged they’d achieved a 12-0 result for their slate, until people began to ask questions. The first question was why someone like Luis “Chavit” Singson did even better than the administration’s Muslim candidate, Jamalul Kiram III. The next series of questions were even more troubling: In some areas, it seems no election was held at all; in others, the voting had nothing to do with the counting. In an electoral contest where the last two places in the senatorial results can be decided by mere thousands of votes, the 300,000 votes of Maguindanao have ended up so hotly contested, even discredited, that they have been taken out of the counting. And now, Lanao del Sur is in the process of having the voting so heavily scrutinized, that the votes will have a hard time surviving the harsh glare of public attention. The administration is upset about this. Because Muslim Mindanao — remote, and more firmly in the pocket of local leaders than other parts of the country — is their last hope for preventing a near-total defeat in the senatorial race. Try as the administration might, to claim it still has provincial bailiwicks, these so-called administration areas have, one after the other, delivered an anti-administration vote. The result is that the outcome has stubbornly stayed the same: 8 for the Genuine Opposition, 2 for Team Unity, and 2 Independents. Even the votes from the last, solidly administration-leaning bailiwick, Cebu, haven’t been enough to stem the tide. This really leaves Muslim Mindanao as the last place where administration victory can be snatched from the jaws of defeat. Yet left to themselves, Muslim Filipino voters have proven themselves not very different from their Christian Filipino counterparts; and where their leaders have intervened to try to change the results, they’ve been caught. Administration spokesmen are left trying to argue that the political culture is such, in Muslim areas, that leaders arrive at a consensus with their followers, and everyone follows what the leader says. They may have a point, but as Maguindanao showed, that means nothing if no voting took place at all. And it means nothing in places like Lanao, where media and citizens’ groups have exposed how the political diktat takes place with every rule that applies to elections being violated. Local leaders, operating in a kind of darkness -beyond media scrutiny, without citizens’ volunteers swarming around precincts to keep tabs on the conduct of the voting and counting — might have peddled “consensus” as an argument. But now, they can’t. Enough Muslim Filipinos were seen conscientiously doing their civic duty — and wanting to vote freely — to prove that vote delivery only happens with the help of systematic fraud. Which leaves the administration furiously trying to accomplish the counting -and have their provincial counts counted nationally, in turn — before citizen’s groups or the media can belie their claims. It’s not working. And the blame can’t be pinned on Muslim Filipinos, it can only be assigned to what has clearly been revealed to be a partnership between national and local officials to delay the voting in Muslim Mindanao, to enable it to serve as an antidote to the results from other areas. Hoping to distract the media and the public from their shenanigans in Lanao and other places, Team Unity spokesman Tonypet Albano now says they are going to insist that the counting of votes in opposition bailiwicks be repeated. They denied us Maguindanao, he said, so now we will deny them victory everywhere else the opposition claims a win. No less than all of Metro Manila, and 15 other provinces, he says, will have their voting results challenged by the administration. A smokescreen? Probably. But a dangerous one, and one which requires risking the political equivalent of a forest fire. Makati City, San Juan, Caloocan and Pasig, Albano says, will be places they definitely intend to challenge the votes. They might even challenge the results in Christian areas of Mindanao, like General Santos City where administration bet Manny Pacquiao lost heavily. And if they do? And a cooperative Comelec does what they want, which is to proclaim a “failure of election” in Metro Manila, and other areas, putting out of play as many as seven million votes, what then? Or would they not go that far, in the hope that the public would have been distracted long enough, to have their operations in Muslim Mindanao produce “results”?

Where there’s smoke there’s fire

The Lanao del Sur voting continues to be the focus of news: besides canvassing not yet taking place, reports of shenanigans continue to multiply: Cheating went on in Lanao despite troops, monitoring groups.

Not to mention COMELEC takes blank ERs from Lanao Sur treasurer. Ricky Carandang has been filing reports that may go down in media history as among the most intrepid by Filipino TV journalists, but he has gotten death threats because of his persistence (an interesting reaction -the rival network’s- is in Chasing a fading concept; see also a viewer’s reaction in brinknotes.org). To place the whole story in context, read Newsbreak’s story, ‘Garci’ Men Assigned In Lanao Polls, Take Custody of ERs. Other media have other stories too, including a car chase involving election inspectors and an election watchdog group.

The goings-on in Mindanao have triggered a manifesto of common concern among GO candidates. But all’s not well within the opposition, either.

The Inquirer editorial blasts the Tonypet Albano-Romeo Macalintal declaration to seek a failure of election in Metro Manila. Macalintal denies it, but a close reading of his statements shows he said -essentially, nothing:

“Maybe, as an ordinary layman, he’s just saying ‘failure of election’, but there’s no such thing as a petition for failure of election that would be filed, and if I would be asked by them (TU), I will be the very first to tell them, do not file that kind of petition,” Macalintal told reporters at the Philippine International Convention Center where the national canvass for the senatorial elections is being held.

He explained that, as far as he knew, Team Unity would seek a “recanvassing or retabulation” in selected precincts in certain cities or provinces, and not move for a recount in the entire area.

In other words: Albano did not use lawyer-like precision in his statement, but he was essentially correct in pointing out what TU intends to do. And Eastern Samar Gov. Ben Evardone, TU media bureau chief and campaign strategist, has joined the fray, this time taking watchdog groups to task:

…Evardone… said the party came across over 100 cases of electoral fraud in Metro Manila and other places where the GO candidates had won by large margins. These incidents were overlooked or ignored by poll watchdogs, he said.

The failure or refusal of these watchdogs to cry fraud when they did so in pro-administration bailiwicks only fueled suspicions that they were in cahoots with the opposition to vilify the May 14 elections, Evardone said.

He also accused the GO of being in cahoots with leftist and ultra-rightist elements in raising charges of fraud against TU senatorial candidates.

The pithiest explanation of the Abano-Macalintal dog-and-pony show comes from Uniffors: GO bites TUTA? Anyway, the whole thing’s produced results: counting bogs down.

Meanwhile, the Chairman of the Comelec gives the Bart Simpson defense: Ididn’tdoitnobodysawmedoityoucan’tproveanything!

The strong Peso’s leading to complaints from seaweed traders, and concerns over remittance rules from OFWs; importers upset over new government fees. And news of Philhealth fraud to the tune of 4 billion Pesos.
Lakas spokesman Heherson Alvarez says the President will eventually have to weigh in to help decide who gets the speakership; Palace so far won’t take the bait. But Luis Villafuerte continues sniping at de Venecia. Kampi quota of concessions obviously hasn’t been reached.

Note The Lonely Vampire Chronicle’s analysis of the political math:

Based on the list, here is the breakdown:

Lakas-CMD: 57
Kampi: 30
LP: 18 (both wings)
NPC: 17
Independent: 5
NP: 5
LDP: 4
PDP-Laban: 3
UNO: 2 (Those who list themselves as UNO with another party are excluded from this count)

NOTES:
1. In order for Luis Villafuerte to wrest the speaker’s seat away from Jose de Venecia, he needs to get all Kampi votes, plus those from its Coalition allies.
2. This list does not reflect the areas where Coalition allies fought and beat each other.
3. If you know the party affiliation of those winners with no parties listed after their names, please leave a comment (list the name and the party).

My Arab News column for this week is Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire. A related reading is an account in Mindanews, of a proposal by Archbishop Quevedo to establish a kind of electoral college voting system in Mindanao -one disputed by other Mindanaowons, including the scholar Patricio Abinales.

(I finally got to see what my column actually looks like in Saudi Arabia!

Woohoo!)

Amando Doronila who’s now based in Australia, reports how the President’s visit is being treated in the media and responded to by Australia’s academe. Among other things, the Australian National University declined to give the President an honorary degree, despite government lobbying for the honor. (A gift of boats from Australia to the Philippine Navy is a great thing to my mind: we need a decent navy, if we’re to do something about smuggling, etc.)

The Business Mirror editorial asks, what happened to the so-called 7-8-9 economic plan of the administration? NEDA Chief Romulo Neri apparently thinks it’s a dead duck:

Secretary Neri is now saying it would be difficult for the country to achieve a 6.2-percent economic growth next year unless the government spends P20 billion more in pump priming. This year, the growth rate is pegged at a rather modest 6.1 percent.

Neri said it is “theoretically possible” to jack up growth rates, even hit the 7-8-9 goal eyed by then Presidential Management Staff chief and now newly elected Albay governor Joey Salceda for 2007 to 2009, if only the government would spend its budget on time.

But the scaled-down target is not surprising given the revenue shortfall in the past months and the government’s commitment to achieve a balanced budget by next year, according to Neri. Thus, the administration would find it difficult to get the additional funds for pump-priming the economy.

“If we didn’t have the revenue constraint, it would have been easier to achieve a 6.2-percent growth. For the 0.3 percent [additional growth], you only need about P20 billion in additional spending,” he said.

Manuel Buencamino has a naughty, imaginary conversation with the Queen of the Enchanted Kingdom:

“So you’re not conceding defeat?”

“Defeat? In the congressional and local elections, the victory of the overwhelming majority of candidates sympathetic to the administration shows a vote for political stability and economic reform. I won, honey.”

“Any other message to your subjects?”

“I want to thank in advance the five million voters whose votes await canvassing by Abalos. They are the true voice of the people.”

“Huh?”

“You better believe it. Like the man said, ‘who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?’”

On the other hand, Sec. Ricardo Saludo says the presidential sunset has a warm afterglow indeed. So he belongs to the “legacy” camp in the cabinet.

Bloggers were swift to react to the Albano-Macalintal declaration: chizjarkace asks,

…it is very seldom we hear that the incumbent is complaining of being cheated. As the party of the incumbent administration, who would dare cheat Team Unity? And who has the capacity to do so? Besides Team Unity is the one bragging about their machinery. Does their machinery only include getting them votes and not protecting it?

Another point is that most of the areas where TU says cheating happened is from Metro Manila. Why can’t they believe their candidates were crushed here? Metro Manila, since the Garci scandal, has been opposed to the administration. An almost sweep victory for the opposition here is something to be expected and you can have the surveys to prove it. It is very much unlike the accusations of cheating in Mindanao areas where TU is expecting to get most of their votes. Mindanao’s election credibility has been tainted with doubts since the 2004 presidential elections.

And Patsada Karajaw points out,

But isnt this the same Tonypet Albano who boasted that they will swept the senatorial race because of the command votes of the administration local candidates? Now, they cry that they are victims of fraud. How come? They have watchers, the COMELEC is more sympathetic to them. They all have the resources to do what it takes to win so how come they can be cheated? It looks like this allegation is not believable given the facts. But the greatest proof why the administration will never be cheated is the Hello Garci tapes. The cheating operators are on their side as what the tapes would show.

He also doesn’t like the way some Mindanao officials are trying to rally the locals:

Two administration charged the Genuine Opposition of sourgraping for keeping on shouting fraud in Mindanao. Rep. Antonio Cerilles of Zamboanga del Sur and Rep. Roseller Barinaga of Zamboanga del Norte that the administration won fair and square in Mindanao because the Opposition failed to field candidates 100 percent in the area. Again, these two solons argue that the command votes would deliver victory for Team Unity and urge the opposition to stop tarnishing the honor of Mindanaoans whom they say are good fearing people. The subtle intention of this two fellows in using the term Mindanaoans is to rally the people of Mindanao against the allegation of cheating by GO. These two hopes that a backlash against the GO candidates by Mindanaoans will be realized. Alas, these people are proven wrong, instead of a backlash, more and more people surfaced to tell the tale of massive and nauseating cheating in Mindanao. Witnesses say, they can no longer stomach the brazen cheating done over and over again every election.

The Philippine Experience calls Albano’s arguments a “statistical overstretch,”  Mga Diskurso ni Doy calls for the Comelec’s commissioners to resign.

In Inquirer Current, John Nery is puzzled by conflicting estimates of voter turnout.

Philippine Commentary discusses the education budget. Red’s Herring presents some thoughts on the different parts that comprise the body politic.

Four-Eyed Journal gives some reasons as to why he’s proud to be a Filipino.

Technorati Tags: Blogging, elections, journalism, media, military, philippines, politics, president, Senate, society

TU: Proclaim failure of elections in Metro Manila

There’s something in this report, which I find very, very troubling:

“This is now the strategy of Team Unity, to have the CoCs deferred even if the defects of the CoC are not as substantial as those pointed out by the opposition. They are now taking the offensive stance,” Leila de Lima, counsel for the GO’s Cayetano, told reporters…

In a move that can further delay the proclamation of winners, the TU is filing with the Comelec an appeal for a recount in Metro Manila and 15 provinces where the GO dominated the canvassing.

At a press conference, TU deputy spokesperson Tonypet Albano said Monday the TU move to direct its lawyer, Macalintal, to seek a recanvassing of the votes in GO bailiwicks could lead to a “failure of elections” in these areas.

These areas could affect 7 million votes.

Albano said a retabulation of CoCs would further delay the proclamation of winners.

Macalintal is expected to file up to 130 cases of election fraud with the Comelec against the GO, using affidavits of witnesses, tampered election returns, similar thumb marks, wrong tallies and election documents without watermarks.

Albano said the TU’s appeal was not unlike the plea of the GO in the Maguindanao elections in which the opposition claimed the administration cheated in forcing a 12-0 sweep of the Top 12.

“We’re just doing to them what they are doing to us. They are questioning how we swept Maguindanao. So we will also question them how they swept us in their bailiwicks like Makati and General Santos City,” said Albano.

“If the Comelec granted the GO’s appeal, I don’t see why we should not be granted the same,” he said…

Albano only named Makati, San Juan, Caloocan and Pasig as the main targets of its appeal for retabulation of the CoCs.

This is scorched-earth governance again. But is it a serious proposal or:

1. a diversionary tactic to take pressure off Mindanao, or a delaying tactic,

2. both a diversionary tactic (since pressure from the public is intense) and really something being cooked up? Read the Newsbreak account of the latest monkey business in Lanao (and other reports, too). Watch this video, too.

Anyway, Tony Abaya says it’s crucial Namfrel conducts a 100% count, this time around (as Civilization of Love points out, via a GMA News report, Namfrel’s running out of steam). Businessmen, the Business Mirror reports, have already factored in an opposition senate, anyway.

The Manila Times details the latest twist in the de Venecia-Villafuerte intramurals: Villafuerte angling to be minority leader? Is the situation contained, or can it spin out of control? I’ve learned to read Bel Cunanan for insights into how the Speaker is currently thinking.

First, she gives a snapshot of the motivations of congressmen like Luis Villafuerte:

The floating of Garcia’s name came as a surprise, as many had suspected that Villafuerte himself, one of two brilliant Bicolanos (the other being Rep. Edcel Lagman) who fought the two impeachment moves against President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, would challenge De Venecia in De Venecia’s quest to create history by running for an unprecedented 5th term as Speaker.

But in the days immediately following the elections, rumors circulated that Villafuerte wasn’t interested in the speakership, but would gladly settle as chair of the most powerful committee on appropriations. Another congressman being eyed as a possible challenger to De Venecia was Davao City Rep. Prospero Nograles, his capable majority floor leader, but then logic seemed to dictate that it would be better for Nograles to seek to succeed De Venecia, who will be on his last term this time.

Then, she suggests that there’s larger, tactical considerations at stake:

The floating of Garcia’s name may actually be rooted in deeper issues. Villafuerte said in the media that a new leader could strike a better rapprochement with the Senate, to work out a more effective turnout of laws. The inference was that after De Venecia unsuccessfully pushed Charter change, his relationship with the Senate could be tough to mend. But a cooperative Senate may be a pipe dream, given that the four or five presidential hopefuls in the Senate are not expected to give President Arroyo a chance to look better.

At the heart of this new challenge could be the Charter change issue itself. De Venecia is perceived as not giving up on Charter change as the vehicle for economic take-off, preferably led by himself, whereas Pabling Garcia fought the people’s initiative right up to the Supreme Court.

And here’s the zinger: basically, she wonders if it isn’t time to call the President’s bluff, since the speakership is a position the president determines:

Ultimately, the speakership issue, as all House members know, is one vote, that of the President. Villafuerte was quoted as opining that this issue is “an internal matter” to the House, and that Ms Arroyo would stay “neutral.” Most pundits would agree that the speakership issue is directly related to her own perception of her survival.

If President Arroyo thinks that a third impeachment move against her has utterly no chance, she could strengthen the candidate of Kampi, the group she built up to push her personal agenda. This group could be expected to push for Charter change to try to keep her beyond 2010. In case she swings support to Garcia, she should calibrate her moves very well, as abandoning the man who rallied to her no less than three times, on July 8, 2005 and in two impeachment attempts, would make her look very Machiavellian indeed, confirming what her worst critics have long been asserting.

Uh-oh!

Overseas, political excitement brewing in Thailand. And Australia and the Philippines poised to ink a security pact.

Technorati Tags: elections, philippines, politics, president, Senate, society

Congressmen of the Caribbean

The story broke on a Sunday, guaranteed to occupy the AM radio shows in the morning: It’s Cebu’s Garcia vs De Venecia in speakership fight. Intramurals, this early? More accurately, early-bird extortion. One congressional spouse explained it to me this way: “It’s all hao siao.” Perhaps that is how statements like Charter-change bid seen to take back seat in next 3 years  or “Chamber change and not Charter change is the immediate and urgent clamor at this time,”  should be taken -a bla bla bla smokescreen.

You can continue comparing the Namfrel and Comelec counts, but here’s why the Namfrel count’s more a reflection of reality: you only get to add Cebu’s votes once, which the Comelec just did. But it did so without canvassing the results from Manila and Quezon City (and one has to ask why the delay). The Namfrel count has a more equitable distribution of votes, so it’s more reflective of the relative weight of the votes. See their breakdown below:

But Placeholder says, some questions over the votes of the worst-performing candidates need to be answered, though. A Mindanews report on the counting in Davao City and on counting in Kidapawan City points to the problem (the losers, and gainers, from vote-padding and shaving). And Namfrel is saddled with the problem of being denied essential election documents.

Overview of the recently-concluded voting in Lanao del Sur (see also Mindanao Examiner’s report, while Marichu Lambino was quite frustrated by ANC’s coverage). Lanao seems to have gone 7-3-2: or at least, in Marawi City. Ryan Rosauro on how difficult it is to figure out just exactly how many voters there are in Lanao del Sur. Newsbreak says operators were busy there:

Meanwhile, operators for four senatorial candidates—three from Team Unity and one from the Genuine Opposition—moved only recently to buy votes for their clients, the two sources said. We are withholding the names of these candidates.

The operators disclosed that they demanded a 50-percent downpayment from candidates who wanted to buy votes. The rate had risen to P50 per vote for the party-list race and P10 per vote for the senatorial race.

If these operators are to be believed, they already know the results of the just-concluded special elections in the province.

Romulo Neri says the Peso is “uncomfortably strong.”

My column for today is Calabasa and the counting.

Amando Doronila explains why the Lanao vote’s so crucial. It’s interesting that both he and Tony Lopez (who suddenly seems to have abandoned boosting the President), who have long experience in finding the public pulse and figuring out the results of elections (they’ve been commenting on them since the premartial law days) both agree the result’s 8-2-2.

Doronila says,

The Senate results are the outcome the Arroyo administration would rather not see and would like the rest of the nation to ignore to substantiate its claim that it had received a vote of confidence on the strength of local results….

The administration lost Manila with the defeat of Mayor Lito Atienza’s son, Ali, by Sen. Alfredo Lim as reelectionist Mayor Jejomar Binay scored a landslide win in Makati, the center of the opposition in Metro Manila. These two triumphs have broadened the opposition base in Metro Manila, reducing the electoral importance of a third key city, Quezon City, which returned Mayor Feliciano “Sonny” Belmonte as mayor…

Even on the level of local and House elections, the poll results show the political map nationwide has been redrawn to indicate the weakened control by President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo on key local electorates. The erosion of this base does not warrant confidence that the President is secure from renewed impeachment attempts in the next Congress, or from urban unrest, given that both Manila and Makati are now in opposition hands.

The redrawn map, taken together with the Mindanao results in determining the final outcome of the Senate vote, undermines the President’s thesis that the local election results have defined decisively the issue of her renewed mandate to govern the way she has been ruling.

If we examine more closely the changes in the local election results, it becomes obvious that the mandate as a vote of confidence from the local results is at best hollow and a delusion.

The Senate elections are decided on overarching national issues, giving the results there a strong national character. They aggregate the issues, which local elections do not.

These midterm elections have offered us two visions or interpretations of the national mandate and the magnitude of the devastating disaster that hit the administration.

This is why Ms Arroyo is fighting tooth and nail to change the final outcome through the Lanao del Sur vote, and why that election is so tremendously important to us. The outcome there transcends the issue of whether she can be impeached or not.

While Lopez writes,

There are a number of reasons why 2007 is one of the best elections ever.

First, the exercise saw tradition pitted against technology, a century-old manual counting system against a 21st-century exit poll and media count, and a deliberately clueless, if not shameless Comelec against a raging electorate. The result was an exciting and thrilling battle with an almost unpredictable outcome. By the way, thanks to Comelec incompetence, this year’s poll has one of the lowest turnouts—55 percent, 25 million out of 45 million voters.

Second, the people defied conventional wisdom and exerted their will. They twitted the administration’s vaunted political machinery, the Comelec’s shameless partiality, the military and the police’s complicity, and unprecedented widespread cheating and vote-buying to choose who they think are best for them.

The result is an 8-2-2 victory for the opposition and independents in the Senate race, the defeat of vice lords in Pampanga, the defeat of Manny Pacquiao and Virgilio Garcillano in their congressional fights, the massive thrashing of a number unqualified actors seeking public office, the fall of a number of political dynasties, and the shaming of Comelec and Ben Abalos before the bar of public opinion.

Manila went to the opposition, Alfredo Lim; Pasay to another oppositionist, Peewee Trinidad; and Makati as expected to opposition leader Jejomar Binay. This means the UNO can have three major venues for protest rallies—Liwasang Bonifacio or Recto in Manila, Ayala Avenue in Makati, and the reclamation area in Pasay. Ousted President Joseph Estrada got nearly all he endorsed to win, except for John Osmeña. Did you know that Erap’s endorsement value is 52 percent in Manila and 36 percent nationwide? Gloria Arroyo’s is negative.

Third, the electorate have already chosen their next generation of leaders, including the next president.

Over the weekend, the Inquirer editorial had a double-barrelled blast, one aimed at Alex Magno in Why the Senate matters:

At this point, advocates of the parliamentary system will begin a numbers game, contrasting the flood of legislation from the House with the trickle from the Senate. But history should have the last say: We wager that, years from now, the Arroyo administration’s assault on our civil liberties, its narrowing of the democratic space, in exchange for continuing political survival, will be recognized as the main narrative defining Philippine politics at the beginning of the 21st century. In that narrative, it will be the Senate, not the House, which will be acclaimed as choosing history’s side.

In the end, Magno’s argument against the Senate rests on the conviction that, well, independence of mind is not a becoming quality of a legislator.

And the other, at candidates still hoping to buck the trend in The lie:

By the administration’s own logic, and Team Unity’s too, the local machinery in, say, Camarines Sur, where the four congressional winners are all administration candidates (Dato Arroyo and Louie Villafuerte among them), should have delivered more votes for the administration’s Senate candidates. But aside from Joker Arroyo, a Bicolano, the list of the top Senate vote-getters looks very familiar indeed: The opposition dominates.

The notion, therefore, that special areas exist in the country, isolated from public opinion and impervious to national trends, is a mirage. The assertion that local machinery will spell the difference for the administration’s Senate candidates is a lie. Unless, of course, what they really mean by machinery is election fraud at the local level, away from prying eyes.

There’s an extremely interesting assertion by Justice Isagani Cruz that the Comelec can proclaim 14, and not 12, senators-elect:

I have a controversial but justifiable suggestion. In addition to the 12 senatorial candidates to be proclaimed as winners for the regular six-year term, the Commission on Elections should also proclaim the candidate who will obtain the 13th place as the winner for the three-year term not served by Senator Lim…

Giving the unexpired three-year term to the candidate who placed 13th in the senatorial race would not only be fair and economical but also avoid another divisive political campaign for just one solitary seat with the 23 others in the Senate. The Constitution envisioned that chamber with a full complement of 24 members, and its deliberate reduction by mere statute would be unconstitutional. So too, I submit, would a failure to correct its incompleteness, such as by the process I suggest that should be presumed as constitutional unless the Supreme Court disagrees.

While we are considering this matter, let me reiterate my argument that the repeal of Sec. 67 of the Omnibus Election Code by Sec. 14 of the Fair Election Act is invalid for being a mere “rider” in violation of Art. VI, Sec. 26(1) of the Constitution providing that “every bill passed by the Congress shall embrace only one subject which shall be expressed in the title thereof.” The Fair Election Act deals only with political advertising, like TV commercials and election posters. It has nothing to do with forfeiture of original offices upon the filing of certificates of candidacy for different offices as provided for in Sec. 67.

If this view is sustained by the Supreme Court, Senator Lapid will be considered as having also forfeited his Senate seat when he ran for mayor of Makati. The 14th placer among the senatorial candidates this year should then also be proclaimed, to fill the vacancy created by Lapid’s defeat.

In the blogosphere, The Lost Filipino has a very provocative view on why the Peso’s stronger: it’s all a conspiracy hatched at the top! Read on:

Although recent reports have indicated that the peso is getting stronger than the dollar, certain quarters along the way are manipulating their turf to run after residues of this stronger peso purposely to gain or regain losses. This would certainly tend to increase interest rates on borrowings and the tendency to plunge back the peso again into its former scale. Other business quarters have instigated to fuel prices on basic commodities as well as on petroleum products purposely to cut through the residue of a stronger peso and eventually save a certain percentage of its gain as a reserve for future peso shocks! Of course, this would include dollar salters who would be keeping a shorter pace of not exposing its big reserves kept in secret chambers either in the house, certain bodega, container, underground vault, special deposit boxes in the bank, in a plastic bag, or travelling bag, or even in comfort rooms! These are special venues of depositing hidden wealth where government agents have been spying to but to no avail. Or they would just have to remain in secret and at bay for future works or so.

Anyway, the Central Bank is still in the mode of trying to augment its dire need of dollars to sustain the increasing demand outside the country. Economists would likely view this event as a time of comprehensive savings for the future. In this time, importation is given the leeway to crack into the economy the needed resources like garments and technological accessories. It’s shopping time for the whole country! Take the supplies while it lasts. Thus, a stronger peso means a lot of imported goods that can be purchased to be pump out into the consuming public. Sacks of the rice can be imported from Vietnam or China in a least possible price available in order to sustain the ever-increasing demand of rice in the market place, because the local rice granaries could no longer meet the stiff scale of producing rice to sustain the food reserves, it is time to do the marketing for their goods until the warehouse is full. Of course, local marketers would still be humming around the corner while awaiting prices to go up.

This would play down the line the energy conservation bill of the government and condition the whole country for a greater endeavor that may follow when the election is over. All set for the “Chacha Movement” while militant groups are trimming their ways to counter any move from the government. The vertical arena is now set for a new perspective! No one yet is allowed to play at the ground, until all is ready.

Well, my friends, these are the scenarios that I could possibly draw when the election is over and new set of 12 Senators will be coming in to the Senate Chamber and new or old Congressmen will be setting the House of Representatives in order come July 2007 and get started with legislative agenda that will pump out again the reserved money out of its savings status. This would certainly generate new upheavals among militant groups who are always cued when to move and when to stop. The political screen is on again to put into the centerstage the decision made by the people during the May 14, 2007 elections.

we have no names says two major forces in Philippine society are headed for a collision. Patsada Karajaw recounts a revealing political anecdote:

My good friends in Agusan del Norte told me this rather revealing tale. Sometime before the last elections, they say, the Amantes and the Plazas were summoned in Malacanang to tresh out everything. It was agreed in that meeting that both of them should give up their respective fights; leave Agusan del Norte to the Amantes and Butuan City to the Plazas.

That is why a mayoral candidate was surprised why the “fundings” were ordered stopped and withdrawn at the last minute. Another consitutent also observed that the “funding” was deliberately delayed in his town, prompting him to suspect somethings fishy is going on.

Demosthenes’ Game proposes a hybrid form of voting that he calls Perhaps a Way Out, and delves into it further in Net Approval Voting. Less exotic but as interesting is veas9’s analysis of presidential elections.

Kat in the Hat recounts what it’s like to be a Namfrel volunteer. See Guardians of the Ballot for an overview by the PCIJ of electoral watchdogs.

Aaron Mickelson is a new Peace Corps volunteer in the Philippines: read his observations on life in the Philippines. Very entertaining.

YugaTech (thanks to him for quickly and efficiently attending to this blog being hacked over the weekend!) writes on what’s it’s like to survive a libel case.

Technorati Tags: Charter Change, constitution, elections, ideas, media, philippines, politics, president, satire, Senate

Lanao invasion

Comelec Chairman Benjamin Abalos backtracks from proclaiming an initial batch of winning senatorial candidates:

When the NBC adjourned the canvassing at 6:15 Thursday night, it was still 8-2-2 in favor of GO.

It was also 8-2-2 for GO in the tally by Namfrel as of 6:03 Thursday night.

The tallies read out by the Comelec were from Navotas-Malabon, Tawi-Tawi, Antique and Northern Samar, bringing the total number of canvassed local CoCs to 69 provinces and 10 cities in Metro Manila, or 77 percent of the 103 local CoCs.

The handful of CoCs canvassed Thursday had no effect on the ranking of all candidates in the Magic 12 with the GO slate winning a sweep in opposition bailiwick, Navotas-Malabon.

They need more wiggle room, perhaps? The anti votes just keep rolling in.

The focus today and tomorrow will be on Lanao del Sur. Soldiers have been sent to Lanao del Sur, too. A showdown, says the Inquirer editorial. From the areas concerned themselves, Miriam Coronel Ferrer publishes eyewitness accounts of the fraud -and how local residents resent it.

There’s an illuminating report by Volt Contreras and Nikki Dizon explaining why fraud tends to mar Muslim Mindanao voting.

In the punditcracy, Amando Doronila says the election points an urban vs. rural divide, and an epic showdown to come:

…Struggling to crash into the 12th spot are Team Unity’s Miguel Zubiri, Ralph Recto, Michael Defensor and Prospero Pichay.

From the above figures, the odds are overwhelmingly stacked against changing the ratio of the results, unless the administration, with the collusion of the Comelec, foolishly undertakes a massive tampering of the returns in Mindanao and other provinces. This picture underscores the futility of drastically changing the outcome without sparking a civil conflagration, of the magnitude that followed the walkout in February 1986 of computer technicians at the Comelec after the official tabulation wiped out the commanding lead of opposition presidential candidate Corazon Aquino…

…From where things now stand in the tabulations, the country is confronted by two sets of results, each presenting different electoral maps: one comes from the senatorial results and the other from the congressional and local elections…

…On the face of the results, two elections on two different levels, with no correspondence with one another, took place on May 14, drawing the electorally bifurcated map of the country: the Senate and the local elections.

Each sent different messages and mandates. This bifurcation emphasized even more sharply the great divide that ruptured the country — between the rural constituency of the President and the mainly urban constituency that was reflected in the Senate election vote.

Thus, the country stands divided, even more than it was during the past two years when their conflict came to a head in the two failed impeachment actions against the President and in street demonstrations demanding her resignation. The last election failed to heal these divisions. On the contrary, the two-level election results have set the stage for the epic showdown between the President and the opposition-dominated Senate for control of national agenda and policy in the next three years.

JB Baylon says its time for a public hanging!

Inthe blogosphere, in Inquirer Current, John Nery (pointing to a January column of his) points out the Palace effort to frame the election:

The Senate contest is not a referendum on the Arroyo presidency, because, well, the administration has lost the majority of seats at stake. But the congressional and local races? They are a referendum because the administration won most of the positions at stake.

Chasing Sass has a magnificent entry on the need for an undisputed majority for presidents. You have to read her entry, which ends with a sobering question:

In the last three presidential elections, not only that the elected presidents received a mediocre percentage of votes but they also received the lowest number of votes among the three nationally elected positions. Compare the votes of Mr Ramos, Mr Estrada, and Mrs Arroyo to the top senator during their respective elections. The votes of Mr Sotto III, Ms Legarda, and Mr Roxas III are significantly higher than the elected president. To add more insult to the insulted, these three presidents are the only ones who experienced this in the entire history of our fabulous democracy.

What exactly is happening here?

Patsada Karajaw says this election is the dirtiest ever. Exaggerated Anecdotes says the economy’s taken the cheating into consideration.

RG Cruz describes the President’s trip to Japan.

Demosthenes’ Game cheers on the President’s boosters and boos the President’s detractors.

Reyna Elena thinks a a centralized credit bureau’s a good idea.

Pine for Pine on a slang word’s etymology.

Technorati Tags: elections, media, military, philippines, politics, president, Senate

Cease fire?

President asks Japanese PM to list his country’s commitments. Favila points to committed investments being up (during the pre-election period, mind you). The strong showing of the Peso explained -in the context of regional currencies and not politics.

Here it is, folks: Sigaw resurrects signature campaign:

The new petition will call for the abolition of Malacañang and Congress and will pave for a new unicameral parliamentary system that will be composed of district, regional and party-list representation all over the country, said Lambino…

…Lambino said that with the support of the local government executives, they expect to get the same number they had last year of about nine million signatures – almost double the constitutional requirement of 5.16 million, or 12 percent of the total voting population and representing over three percent of all voters in each of the 213 congressional districts in the country…

…If their petition prospers, the election of members of parliament will be on May 2, 2010.

“There will be no more extension of term or the creation of an interim parliament, Malacañang and Congress will be merged together as the executive and lawmaking body of the government,” Lambino explained.

Under the parliamentary unitary system, the prime minister will become the head of government with members of parliament of the majority party holding the Cabinet posts.

And her’es another Old Reliable: Oliver Lozano says he’s going to file an impeachment complaint against the President.

As the Comelec announces its poised to announce 9 senatorial winners (and Namfrel says it will continue its counting until the weekend), fraud allegations in Mindanao get detailed; the Palace’s Team Unity’s reduced to insisting on two things: Maguindanao was a clean election (and the machinery worked) and there is a Communist-GO conspiracy. This is meant, of course, to keep two of candidates still in the fight, since efforts even in Lanao del Sur have bogged down, the breakdown in admin bailiwicks continues to be detailed, and the recriminations start.

The micro dynamics of overseas voters continues to be examined, too.

A sign of the public mood: even the House claims it won’t bootlick. Not obviously, anyway.

In the punditocracy, my column for today is Ceasafire? Poor Miguel Zubiri took exception to my previous column, but what can you do? Obviously our opinions differ.

Bong Austero insists the writing isn’t on the wall -not really, just sort of, maybe, kind of. Meanwhile, the Vice-President’s in denial, too.

Tony Abaya suggests the country’s moving backwards.

Connie Veneracion says there are times when it’s better to say one doesn’t know something; Raissa Jajurie says she knows, because she saw, fraud in Sulu; Candido Wenceslao thinks the electorate has swung to the Right.

In the blogosphere, Ricky Carandang points to the inspiring story that’s been emerging. The real story in this election is how the cheating seems to have been, if not stopped fully, then seriously derailed by volunteers eager to redeem their organization’s reputation and to stand their ground:

But something quite unexpected happened. Over a million people from the normally silent majority decided to intervene in the politician’s contest for the right to engage in rent seeking behavior. The bias-tainted National Movement for Free Elections (Namfrel) whose leaders were vilified for their silence in 2004, did some serious housecleaning. Out went Bill Luz and Joe Concepcion, and in came Eric Alvia and Eddie Go.  The newly revitalized Namfrel joined other watchdogs, the Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting, Lente, Bantay Boto, No Cheats, Kontra Daya, and many more to watch the voting, guard the canvassing, and question the cheating. They went to what’s left of the free media to report stories of cheating; and through  tv, radio, print, and internet, journalists told those stories to a global audience.  In Pampanga, businessmen, civic groups, and the religious cobbled together an improbabale election machinery to send a political neophyte to the governor’s mansion, rejecting in their wake the corrupt practices of the province’s traditional political factions. More importantly, a few brave souls–some soldiers, some teachers, children, and even election officials–came forward at the risk of their lives, to blow the whistle on the thugs who thought they could get away with stealing another election.

A Nagueno in the Blogosphere and Peryodistang Pinay and Patsada Karajaw look at the senatorial elections through the prism of local concerns and behavior. Interesting take on national politics from the perspective of the Bicol region and Cebu and Mindanao politics.

The Magnificent Atty. Perez has an interesting account of what it’s like to be an election lawyer during canvassing (he’s representing Joker Arroyo in Cebu. RezeRed recounts the hassle teachers like her experienced, courtesy of the Comelec.

Staying Alive and About Nina look at the messages transmitted by the elections.

In Inquirer Current, John Nery says certain conclusions concerning the election might be overstating things a bit; my entry looks at what the results tells us about 2010 crop of presidentiables.

Placeholder points to a Let’s Move On chronology.

The Journal of the Jester-in-Exile has a pointed message for overseas critics who are ex-Filipinos: STFU.

Technorati Tags: Charter Change, elections, impeachment, media, people’s initiative, philippines, politics, president, Senate

The Long View: Ceasefire?

THE LONG VIEW
Ceasefire?
By Manuel L. Quezon III
Inquirer

Let’s not forget that in 2005 and 2006, public opinion was for impeachment and against Charter change, but divided on other options. From 2005 to the present, public opinion has overwhelmingly been against the President, but disunited on what, if anything, to do about it. And so it all came to a head on Election Day, in a near-nationwide rejection of the President’s senatorial slate and some of her preeminent local candidates.

On Oct. 26, 2006, I pointed out that the President, as her so-called “people’s initiative” ran aground at the Supreme Court, might be headed for lame-duck status if she failed to prevent an election in 2007.

She failed — and her allies, too; though on Dec. 1, 2006 it seemed to me necessary to bear in mind Churchill’s admonition to his countrymen upon the deliverance of the British Army from Dunkirk: “Wars are not won by evacuations.” The hordes of Charter change advocates were driven from the field; there would remain other battles.

Not least within the President’s own forces. The President’s partisans tried to massacre the Lakas-CMD Party; the massacre failed; and what Team Unity spokesman Tonypet Albano proclaimed, prior to the elections, a “juggernaut” — an idol on rollers crushing all opposition before it — turned out too creaky to guarantee instant victory.

In this latest battle (the election), the President’s machinery and “command votes” proved to be, if not completely a mirage, then, so vastly overstated. This was my point last Monday — some of her people might still win, but it’s taken so long; and having been accompanied by such obvious chicanery, it will be a Pyrrhic victory at best.

And so we can say that this early on the Palace has proven itself a victim of its own quackery. The administration might have won individual battles, but it’s incapable of winning the war. Yet, a Palace bristling with generals isn’t one to fold its tents and negotiate a surrender; that much we know.

It’s also true that the two factions that constitute her ruling coalition have maintained their hold on the House: indeed, the President claims she has, at least, not lost on all fronts. Again, so what if a rational mind would know a war of attrition can’t be hers to win? The constitutional clock runs out for her in 2010, doesn’t it?

But then why not smash the clock?

 

Can the President then, mount a fresh offensive, specifically, a new effort to achieve Charter change? Mounting such an offensive requires the use of the coalition that very nearly collapsed because of the Kampi Party’s cannibalizing of Lakas-CMD’s ranks prior to the elections. But there is no greater balm for the antagonized ally than the soothing prospects of forestalling presidential and senatorial elections in 2010.

And so, once more, and ever more, unto the breach! Tennyson once wrote of the Light Brigade what might well be Lakas-CMD’s and Kampi’s political epitaph:

“Forward, the Light Brigade!”
Was there a man dismay’d?
Not tho’ the soldier knew
Someone had blunder’d:
Their’s not to make reply,
Their’s not to reason why,
Their’s but to do and die:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.

As Pierre Bosquet said of the same ill-fated cavalry charge, “It is magnificent but it is not war.” It was suicide for the Light Brigade; it would be verging on the suicidal for the nation.

Yet if the Palace could not see then, it will not see, not now; maybe never?

For this reason, Conrado de Quiros says it will get a lot worse before it will become better. He said it not out of love of confrontation for confrontation’s sake; he said it as a rational person who loves this country, who does not want to prolong its agony, but who clearly sees that if the Palace won’t see reason, it will have no qualms about doing a suicide charge — regardless of the collateral damage.

Two eminently rational minds have suggested how confrontation can be forestalled.

Randy David last Sunday said the way forward requires three steps: (1) Stop the attempt to cheat the senatorial results; (2) All the commissioners of the Commission on Elections should resign and be replaced with credible people; (3) The President should tell the country she will withdraw from public life in 2010, or sooner, and thus hopefully begin a process of reform and healing.

Columnist Tony Abaya said last Tuesday that to forestall a public backlash against the administration, and a repressive counterstrike from the military and the police, the President should acknowledge she has lost the de facto referendum that was the May elections and devote herself to leaving a good legacy: this means foregoing any further efforts to adopt the parliamentary form of government.

So, is it time for a ceasefire? A conditional reprieve for Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo? Is she a lame duck yet? She still has an army. And a police force. Even the lame can command from the rear. Which means, she can still borrow a line from that old Pearl Harbor-inspired song, “Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition!”

So what’s left but to recall the naval hero John Paul Jones? What did he tell the British when they bombarded his ship and demanded his surrender?

“I have not yet begun to fight.”

The British commander had reduced Jones’ ship to a hulk; he rammed the enemy’s ship and captured it.

Rather than discuss a reprieve, it might be better for the President to be reminded of what a famous American revolutionary flag defiantly proclaimed.

“Don’t tread on me.” On the country.

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