The latest Pulse Asia survey (I only pay attention to SWS or Pulse Asia surveys) is quite interesting. Pimentel, Magsaysay and Osmeña, I believe, show the power of name recall. Arroyo and Angara show the strength that comes from being veteran legislators. Honasan demonstrates the macho vote, I think.
Right now it would be 6 GO, 4 TU, 2 Ind. for a real score of 8 opposition, 4 administration.
The top 12:
1st Loren Legarda GO 56.8%
2-3rd Panfilo Lacson GO 41.1%
2-6th Francis “Pangilinan. Ind. 39.4%
3-9th Francis Escudero GO 35.5%
3-10th Ralph G. Recto TU 35.2%
3-10th Manuel Villar Jr. B. GO 35.0%
4-10th Joker P. Arroyo TU 34.5%
4-10th Benigno Aquino III GO 34.2%
4-10th Edgardo J. Angara TU 32.1%
5-11th Alan Peter S. Cayetano GO 30.9%
10-12th Gregorio B. Honasan Ind. 27.3%
11-17th Vicente Sotto III TU 25.4%
Those in the running:
12-18th Aquilino Pimentel III GO 23.1%
12-18th Vicente P. Magsaysay TU 22.4%
12-18th Sonia M. Roco GO 22.4%
12-18th John Henry Osmeña GO 21.9%
12-18th Michael Defensor TU 21.3%
13-18th Juan Miguel Zubiri TU 19.2%
The CAt early on predicted 6-6 and her hunch is shown by Magsaysay, Defensor and Zubiri who could edge out Escudero, Cayetano and Honasan whose fluid numbers are startling. Startling, because the range occupied by Escudero (3rd to 9th), Aquino (4th to 10th), and most of all, Cayetano (5th to 11th!) make them extremely vulnerable to outright manipulation of the voting results or being swamped by machine votes. But it’s not clear that depriving them of big chunks of votes could eliminate them altogether (assuming, for example, by hook or by crook Cayetano’s elimination from the senate is a Palace priority).
Other news: Tony Cuenco forgets how what was desirable when he was anti-Marcos is now, apparently, deserving of a diplomatic protest now that he’s pro-Arroyo. Cesar Montano gets what he wants. The President lashes out at the opposition (nothing wrong, mind you, with presidential tit for tat); the ongoing drama of what kind of passports we should have (and whether there will be a passport drought come June).
My Arab News column for this week is A President Fanatical About Honesty. the Inquirer editorial looks at the Comelec fire and points to possible shenanigans concerning the party list elections. Lito Banayo propounds his own theories.
Manuel Buencamino suggests why the Americans are interested in the human rights situation and realizes it’s genuinely awful. Amando Doronila points out why the Chief Justice thinks things are bad, too.
An interesting commentary by Tulsathit Taptim on the dangers of an unelected prime minister, and the need to focus on the spirit, and not just the letter, of the law. Simon Tisdall on how Robert Mugabe is clinging to power;
In the blogosphere, stories from the middle earth pressroom, as well as Coffee with Amee reflect on the elections, candidates, and what it all means or doesn’t mean. The blogger now known as Iniibig ko ang Pilipinas! returns to the scene.