«

»

Mar 08

9-3 for now

The papers belted out the first senatorial survey results since the campaign actually began. See the Inquirer, and the Star, for example.

Here are the results:
Pr070307Vis 02
Pr070307Vis 04

And by way of comparison, how they compare with the previous surveys before the campaign season.
Pr070307Vis 06
The Palace will of course pooh-pooh the results (it only appreciates surveys when the findings are favorable to it), except it seems to have commissioned its own and found they’re really getting a clobbering.

If you recall the conversation I had with a PR Expert recently (and some additional explanations in the discussion in Newsstand), the first survey of the campaign period tells us who are in play during the campaign. I assume only those who have double-digit figures are still in play; so besides the top 12 in the list, the candidates from Angara to Oreta in the list are the only ones who still have a fighting chance.

The trajectory of candidates enters the picture. According to SWS,

Individually, the gainers from November 2006 to February 2007 were: Pangilinan, who moved from third to first; Villar, from seventh to third; Cayetano, from tied for fifth to tied-fourth; Escudero, from tenth to tied-sixth; Osmeña and Aquino, both from tied-twelfth to tied-ninth; Arroyo, from tied-twelfth to solo twelfth; and Roco, from seventeenth to sixteenth….

Candidates who lost ground between November and February were: Legarda, who went from first to second; Lacson, from second to tied-fourth; Sotto, from fourth to eighth; Recto, from tied-fifth to tied-sixth; Honasan, from tied-eighth to eleventh; Pimentel, from tied-eighth to fourteenth; Angara, from eleventh to thirteenth; and Pichay, from eighteenth to twenty-second (due to the entry of fresh candidates Zubiri, Gomez, Montano, Magsaysay, and Coseteng).

It seems to have helped a candidate more, to be an oppositionist, than to have affiliated with the administration. These and other results are the grist for discussion: Newsstand says that the other problem the surveys help identify is who is liable to “dropping” when the counting takes place. Philippine Commentary also has some observations and predictions based on the present survey results: he expects Cayetano and Lacson to improve their rankings; Legarda to keep losing votes (because of her former husband’s murder case).

Here’s something I’d like to point out, too.
The harm nuisance or misleading candidates can cause is best demonstrated by looking at four names. Let’s input the margin of error (3%) into their current standing in the survey:

Benigno Aquino III 27-33% (in the survey, 30%). At 30%, Aquino III is tied with John Osmeña. At 27% (the low range), Aquino III drops out the winning 12; at 33% (the high range), Aquino III overtakes Sotto III and places 8th.

Theodore Aquino -1-5% (in the survey, 2%). If we assume (reasonably, I think) that his presence simply takes away votes from Aquino III, the “bonus” he could provide ranges anywhere from nothing, to 2%, to a maximum of 5%. A sort of blurry area with the range Aquino III already operates in; but at a maximum benefit of 5%, the addition 2% could firmly entrench Aquino III, for example, in 8th place were the elections held today.

Alan Peter Cayetano 40-46% (in the survey, 43%). At 40% he slides down below Lacson and fights for 6th to 7th place with Escudero and Recto; but at 46%, he’s at least firmly in 4th place.

Joselito Cayetano 3-9% (in the survey, 6%), a formidable showing which I think only goes to show the strength of the real Cayetano’s campaign. The numbers for the fake Cayetano are the “fuzzy” voters whose votes could be manipulated to drag down the real Cayetano. If you simply add back the fake Cayetano’s votes to the real Cayetano’s, in a best case scenario, the real Cayetano would regain up to 9 points, bringing him from 46% (his current best possible) to 55% (more accurately his real best at the present time), which would make him no. 2!

Basically, looking at these four candidates, two real candidates and two spoilers, shows you how dagdag-bawas works.

The results of the survey will frustrate some people even as it makes others happy. Relevant readings, courtesy of the PCIJ: how the poor vote, and why elections are covered in sporting terms.

In other news: the President was heckled this morning; women marchers were beaten up; Supreme Court orders the Pandacan oil depot closed (see nifty pictures in Philippine Commentary); two charged in nursing exam mess (see what blackshama has to say about the whole thing). Palace says soldiers should leave slums; well, maybe not (see Patsada Karajaw for a look into the doublespeak). The Peso improves, but stock market falls some more; and Gov. Singson sues an editor who managed to post bail, but four others are still in legal limbo.

In the punditocracy, my column for today is Indefensible in Plaza Miranda. In his column, Billy Esposo explains why he opposes the offer by some businessmen to host a debate. Geronimo Sy endorses the administration while Alex Magno believes this election is a non-event and that the main event so to speak, will be the 2010 presidential race (if we have one).

In the blogosphere, commentary on the survey results comes from Atheista, who finds the results for Pimentel III unfrigginbelievable; The Purple Phoenix, who has some interesting observations of her own to make on the results, and also, Istambay sa Mindanao. Observations on the campaign from Read This and Die, and see amor rebelde’s blog for an account of how some opposition and administration candidates did in a UST student forum.

An OFW Living in Hong Kong observes the pressures Filipino males face overseas.

Bunker Chronicles on a silly censor’s decision.

Technorati Tags: , , , , , , ,

77 comments

2 pings

Skip to comment form

  1. Mita

    Thank you for that link to the OFW living in Hongkong. What an eyeopener it was for me. I just wish everyone will realize we are still the same people, with the same responsibilities and values no matter where we find ourselves out in the big, wide world.

    ey, is online betting illegal in blogs?? nice if we can come up with a betting pool on this election’s results no? just teasing…don’t want to get anyone in trouble.

    survey na lang from amongst your visitors…that will be interesting..

  2. mlq3

    i wonder how the mechanics would work, mita.

    personally, my frustration is, overseas filipinos don’t have more of a voice in the elections -or that their families haven’t formed a lobby here at home.

  3. rego

    hmmm…Looks like the opposition is in for a majority seats win. Good for them if this will carry until the election day.

    But if my memory is not mistaken, last president election Roco was number one in the surveys then later on drop to 3 or 4. While Gloria ws No 4 and went on to have a head head collison for #1 with FPJ. To me its too early to tell.

    One thing is very clear to me at this point. The 12-0 for either side is not possibel at all.

    And I am feeling that eventually it will be a 6-6 or 7- 5 either way. wanna bet?

  4. Mita

    just a simple click-poll with multiple choices will do. it can show up on the right column just like marketman has on his blog…although you’d need to have more choices. yahoo groups has a great and easy way to do it which i use even for my family’s group…great way to resolve issues.

    I’ve seen how overseas Filipinos get close when they are over there …but when they get back here, it’s every man for himself again. But that’s not a bad idea at all…and workable talaga with the internet.

    Rego! o ano overseas Filipino lobby group daw!

  5. tagabukid

    mlq3,

    You can ask your host to configure the poll software kit which most likely is bundled with your site. i think your account comes with a c-panel, it can be used to configure the Poll and Surveys script. It should work here. That will be interesting.

    Mita is right, but in yahoogroups, the options are limited to 25 choices only. I’ve actually started one in my yahoogroup of highschool batchmates, we’re about 40 there and less than half has voted so far.

    The result, thus far goes:

    1. ESCUDERO
    2. LACSON
    3. CAYETANO
    4. ARROYO
    5. TRILLANES
    6. VILLAR
    7. AQUINO III
    8. HONASAN
    9. LEGARDA
    10 ANGARA
    11 PANGILINAN
    12 PIMENTEL
    —————————————
    13 ROCO
    14 SOTTO

    I guess I can say that the group has so far shown good taste by keeping the showbiz stars out of the magic12. No Vilmanians here, perhaps thats why Ralph is not even near top 14, he’s busy scraping the bottom with the likes of Pichay, Chavit and Tessie Oreta (Sure losers all if I may add)

    Im calling Rego’s bet. Here’s my Useless Forecast:

    GO: 6; LACSON, LEGARDA, ESCUDERO, CAYETANO, VILLAR, AQUINO

    TU: 4; ANGARA, ARROYO, SOTTO, RECTO

    Ind: 2; HONASAN, PANGILINAN

    Make that call now, we’ll wait for your poll.

  6. kiko

    How I wish the 3 in 9-3 are the Ang Kapatiran bets. I guess, I can only dream.

  7. mlq3

    don’t dream, kiko. campaign!

  8. mlq3

    tagabukid, tingnan ko kung kaya, tnx.

  9. kiko

    It’s kinda difficult overseas. Thank God for the cyberspace! It helps.

  10. The Ca t

    And I am feeling that eventually it will be a 6-6 or 7- 5 either way. wanna bet?

    I won’t bet. I have a feeling that before May comes, there will be trouble in the GO camp that would affect their campaign. Kung baga kanya-kanya silang kayod.

    Without the organization, even the popular ones would not make it to the magic circle.

    Wanna bet.

  11. Botante

    Mukhang tuloy tuloy na.Mukha talagang ILALAMPASO itong mga mga taga Team Unity. Pupulutin sa basura. Tingnan natin kung ano ang bago nilang tactics…baka iilag muna kay Glueria ang iilan sa kanila. Pag katabi yang si Glueria, talagang matatalo.

    Pahabol: kala ko ba matalino yang si Pichay.

    Quoting Phil. Daily Inquirer (online news):
    Excerpt:
    “administration candidate, Prospero Pichay Jr., said the latest survey showed a tremendous leap in his ranking, from 46th in November 2006 to 22nd last month.

    “I’m glad that even in just the second week of campaigning, more people have become aware of me and are trusting me with their votes,” Pichay said.”

    Pichay, what an absurd explanation! Eh, wala pang clear slates ang TEAM GLUERIA at GO last time kaya umabot sa 50+ yung possible candidates. Ngayon, it’s very clear na mayroong 11 (GO)+ 12 (TU) = 23, eh ibig sabihin nun nasa tail-end TALAGA siya! Pichay, sigi, i-triple mo yung spendings mo for publicity. Mukhang walang balak ang mga taong itanim ang pitsay sa Senado.

    Rego, Mita, Bencard, ala Toting Bunye,
    Dapat mag-double time ang TU in their campaigns ano. They are destined to lose.

  12. Mita

    botante, mahirap magsalita nang tapos. marami pang puedeng mangyari gaya nung nakaraang eleksyon. surveys are just surveys. until election day comes, we don’t know what’s going to happen.

    no one could’ve guessed raul roco was going to get so sick he had to leave in the middle of the campaign in 04. remember that?

  13. Botante

    Mita,

    Don’t compare the past surveys with the surveys today. There was no prevalent “climate of impunity” at that time. In other words, no remarkable human rights, CPR issues, etc. Mas intelligent at mapagmasid na voters ngayon….and this coming election will be the judgment day. Goodbye TEAM GLUERIA, Yuhoooo!

  14. Botante

    Quoting Mita:
    “no one could’ve guessed raul roco was going to get so sick he had to leave in the middle of the campaign in 04. remember that?”

    ….unless the admin won’t play dirty tricks, of course!

  15. Mita

    botante, kung yun ang pag-iisip mo and you feel good about it – good for you!

  16. rego

    Rego! o ano overseas Filipino lobby group daw! – Mita

    ———————————————————

    Im actually very active in one OFW group of pinoy with alternative life style. And right now I am spearheading the effort to raise fund for Ang Ladlad and sending letter of appeal to COMELEC for Ang ladlad accreditation. NO, our group is not Ang Ladlad but we are helping/supporting Danton. Im also busy raising fund for our college scholarship project. Im soliciting $100 a year pledge from each OFG (overseas filipino gay).

    If I stil have some spare tiem I dont mind joining a an OFW lobby group. But of course I still have my day job to take care of.

  17. rego

    Rego, Mita, Bencard, ala Toting Bunye,
    Dapat mag-double time ang TU in their campaigns ano. They are destined to lose. – Botante

    ———————————————————

    I believe Team Unity is doing exactly what you have just suggested. The same way the Go Team doesn’t to want lose so they are also working hard to keep their lead. 🙂

  18. UPn student

    OFF-TOPIC :
    ——————-
    Date: Thu, 8 Mar 2007 01:57:43 -0800 (PST)
    Subject: Health news
    To: HighSchool 1984

    From scientists and policymakers from the World Health Organization and the U.N. AIDS program, and other experts meeting in Montreux, Switzerland, to develop guidance on using circumcision as a prevention measure.

    Three studies, including two published last month/Feb 2007, show that circumcision lowers a man’s risk of acquiring HIV infection by half — protection roughly equivalent to a moderately effective vaccine.

    —————————————————–

  19. supremo

    I’m calling rego’s bet too.

    GO: 7; LACSON, LEGARDA, ESCUDERO, CAYETANO, VILLAR, AQUINO, OSMENA
    TU: 4; ANGARA, SOTTO, RECTO, MONTANO
    Ind: 1; PANGILINAN

    rego,

    I’m not gay but I’ll give a one time $50 donation to your college scholarship project. Let me know where to send it.

  20. rego

    Just wanted to sahre this article poste din our yahoo group.
    ========================================================

    Pulse Asia up to its old tricks

    By Honesto General
    Inquirer
    Last updated 06:31pm (Mla time) 02/18/2007

    FROM NOW till the May 14 elections, the Filipino people will be
    virtually swamped with political opinion surveys from Pulse Asia,
    Social Weather Stations, Ibon Foundation and some other lesser known
    firms that crawl out of the woodwork during campaign time.

    Pulse Asia was ahead of the pack. If the elections had been held
    last Feb. 8, PA reported in a press release, “14 personalities- -7 of
    whom are officially part of the United Opposition’s senatorial
    slate, 6 may or may not run under the administration’ s ticket, and 1
    will run as an independent opposition candidate–would have a
    statistical chance of winning a senatorial seat.”

    PA went on: “Loren Legarda continues to lead the list of probable
    winners…” In the very next sentence, PA went all the way, “These
    individuals may be considered as sure winners if elections were held
    today given that their current statistical rankings range from 1st
    to 11th places–clearly within the winning circle of 12 senators.

    In one short paragraph, “statistical chances” turned into “probable
    winners” and finally metamorphosed into “sure winners.” That is what
    I call black magic.

    And what are the statistics PA brags about? PA calls it “… a
    multistage probability sample of 1,200 representative adults 18
    years old and above.” “Face-to-face” interviews were conducted, as
    follow: 300 in Metro Manila, 300 in the rest of Luzon, 300 in the
    Visayas and 300 in Mindanao. Then the results per area are added up.
    PA calls this a nationwide survey.

    I have said this more than once before, and I will say it again:
    1,200 interviews can never be called nationwide. Even if PA
    conducted one interview per municipality, 1,200 will not cover even
    one-half of the 3,500 municipalities.

    Also, how can 300 interviews be representative of the 5 million
    adults in Metro Manila?

    Besides, you cannot add the results in Metro Manila, where newspaper
    readership and TV exposure are its densest and Internet connectivity
    is at its widest, to those for the rest of the country. In
    mathematics, there is a saying that the sum of the parts may not
    necessarily equal the whole.

    I agree with the statistical linchpin that you do not have to take a
    whole bowlful to find out how a soup tastes. A teaspoonful would be
    more than enough. But PA’s statistics are so small, nay, minuscule,
    to be absolutely meaningless.

    Along with the survey results, PA should list the questions asked of
    the respondents. The reader need not have to write in a request for
    details.

    PA claims that the surveys were undertaken “on its own without any
    party singularly commissioning the research effort.” If you believe
    that, you will believe anything.

    My good friend, Mansing Sarmiento, head of Vox Populi, a research
    and survey firm, tells me that a survey such as the one undertaken
    by PA would cost at least half a million pesos. Where did PA get the
    money? Surely, not from subscription fees. Why should anybody
    subscribe to PA and pay fees when survey results are released to the
    press for everyone to read and the details are furnished at request
    from any non-subscriber?

    Finally, has Pulse Asia paid value-added tax on its income? Revenue
    Commissioner Buñag should send his eagle-eyed auditors to look into
    the books of Pulse Asia. And while they are at it, why not also look
    into the books of Social Weather Station and Ibon Foundation? I
    cannot wait to read the audit report.

  21. vic

    UPn Student,

    Further to your “off topic” entry above, which I beleive just as important as any other topic at any time I might as well add a part of an entry on my site sometimes a week ago with a link to our local daily. And thanks to Manolo for the privilege…

    for more details on the article pls. go to: http://www.thestar.com/article/184986

    As stated in the study the procedure of circumcision is the removal of the foreskin, as compares to the traditional “do it yourself of olds” procedure that were followed mostly in the Philippines, which is the “splitting” of the foreskin -top, sides or combinations, without removing them.

    The Hospital procedures are different and also follow the approved medical procedure of complete removal of the foreskin, but most male Pinoy who were not born in Hospital go the traditional way, which may not be effective in cutting the risk of the HIV infection.

    There is no doubt that circumcision cut the risk not only of the HIV infection, but a lot of other STDs. But for some religious reasons and personal beliefs, would this study results will really translate into mass convincing of the world male population to go on “circumcise” and whose going to underwrite the funding, especially for the poor African Countries where the HIV infection is hitting the hardest…

  22. rego

    rego,

    I’m not gay but I’ll give a one time $50 donation to your college scholarship project. Let me know where to send it. —
    =====================================================
    Supremo

    Appreciate it so much….

    This is the first time that I got a donation from non gay like you. I did get some before but it was course through a gay freind or relative…

    I can easilly give email the BPI account where you can deposit your donations. yes any amount will do. But I still wanted to confer with the group if this is the right thing to do. Just to be very sure about it.

    One problem is that most of our members are super closeted or discreet. Even myself is not really out to my family ( by this siguro alam na nila) and freinds. so we are very careful and wanted to protect them.

    We take good care of our donors and invite them to some semi exclusive parties as our way of thanking them.

    But if you wish to just send your one time donation I dont think there will be a problem.

    You can visit http://groups.yahoo.com/group/pkbprojects/
    to get familiarized with the project.
    Our scholarchip project is has some wholistic approach. We just dont pay tuition and ang give monthly allowance just like that. we assign one scholar manager from our members to monitor his progress and guide/advise the scholar every year. Yes we do help him sort sort out not only his academic problem but his family and other personal problems too.

    I will email you later about the bank account.

  23. rego

    Btw supremo even the scholar , doesn’t know na ang nagppaaral sa kanya ay mga bading lahat 😉 So far one scholar already graduated (last year) and one is first year college.

  24. Waltzib

    Thank you for the link po.

    The opposition is bound for the win based on the surveys. But GO campaign manager JV Ejercito told us Davao reporters (Thursday night) that they are no match to the machinery of Team Unity. They have draining resources, although, many former campaign contributors are “secretly” helping back.

    If the resources totally drain, the opposition might face a very steep fight, considering what JV said as the TU’s “ever flowing” war chest.

  25. The Ca t

    botante, mahirap magsalita nang tapos. marami pang puedeng mangyari gaya nung nakaraang eleksyon. surveys are just surveys. until election day comes, we don’t know what’s going to happen.

    It is always this overconfidence that bring the opposition to defeat.

    The popularity as surveyed is highly influenced by the media (not the pol.ads but the news that put the candidates in the news).

    Meaning, the respondents are exposed to the current events.

    But millions of voters especially in the provinces rely so much in their local leaders for “advise”. A whisper, a threat, a pautang na loob would make them forget the popular candidates.

  26. manuelbuencamino

    ” mahirap magsalita nang tapos. marami pang puedeng mangyari gaya nung nakaraang eleksyon. surveys are just surveys. until election day comes, we don’t know what’s going to happen.”

    Oo mga naman. lalo na ngayon na nakapwesto na ang mga lieutenants ni Garci sa ARMM.

  27. camry

    Just encourage the voters to be vigilant in protecting the counting of votes. Advise the youth to vote and motivate them to think of their future. Always remember the future of the country, otherwise, if GMA forces will win, sorry na lang.

  28. Bencard

    Here they go again, these people salivating at their impending “victory”, only to eat crow in the end. How many times they have been bragging of triumph only to be embarrassed again, and again, and again, ad nauseam. Better for them to shut up until the last ballot is counted. Then they could rant, rave and stomp their feet like crybabies, and shout “we’ve been cheated”, nya, nya, nya, yaketty-yak!

  29. DJB

    The next SWS and Pulse surveys in March should come out about the same time as the Mar 29 start of the local and congressional races. By then, the Opposition must make the picture these surveys are painting crystal clear to the electorate, so that local Opposition candidates can use them to hook onto the coat-tails of the national candidates. The latter can help boost their own chances by linking up with local campaigns to drive the message down to local levels and thus affect the outcome in the House. Not necessarily to win outright there, but just to get within striking distance of one third minority for impeachment. How hard can that be??

  30. Schumey

    I just wonder if Mr. Noted entertained the protests during the canvassing, would be in this political rut? We could have solved the legitimacy issue right there and then. But of course, we’ll never know if Kiko was part of a grand plan to defraud the people.

    I agree with Camry, let’s be more vigilant this time around. Let’s ask every voter to make sure his/her vote is counted.

    Do I hear anyone saying NOTED?

  31. DJB

    I don’t think Kiko actually knew about the Garcillano operations at the time of the canvassing. Who did? The people truly do not blame him for all that, which is obvious from his #1 placing in the SWS survey.

    What has always disappointed me about him is that he has not yet found himself, not yet discovered the strength within him to invent a persona greater than what the Sharonians see in him: the woman behind him!

    He’s Harvard Law School ferchrissakes, she’s just the Fat Lady who sings.

    I think he’s actually ashamed of that and can’t break out on his own.

  32. inidoro ni emilie

    ashamed? after making this calculated political machinations shortly before jumping into his senatorship, saka pa siya nahihiya? or was it after sharon bloated herself up?

  33. DJB

    Inidoro,
    We must not forget that Kiko did call for the resignation of GMA. That was his first and only act of “guts” that I can recall. But for some reason, he got cold feet even when the Opposition welcomed him with open arms. Manny Villar now ranks high in my estimation for President in 2010. He was right to impeach Erap, and he is right to run on the Opposition ticket, not for Erap’s sake, but for his own. He is the real Mr. Palengke of the masa, not Mar Roxas, not Erap! Kiko is still groping in the darkness. After just a lil while, “independence” will spell fence sitting. He needs a good slap on the back of the head to wake him up. You’re a politician, boy! Be one!

  34. Bencard

    I think what Kiko is really ashamed of is being associated in a campaign with unprincipled politicians who needed the “blessing” of an accused plunderer to be a candidate. His refusal to be a part of this hubris shows that there is still a little bit of decency and delicadeza left in our world of politics. I tip my hat for him.

  35. DJB

    Imagine that Erap disappears from the face of the Earth. Then we would see those who are left as being no better than him, or even worse. Naah. He’s the convenient foil for all the mediocres like Kiko and Joker. Without him as the Devil we all love to hate, their feet of clay would show.

  36. DJB

    Folks like PDI love to portray Joker as a brilliant human rights lawyer. But did he prosecute Erap successfully. No! He overthrew the Constitution instead. Why is Erap still around? After six years in jail and out of power, why isn’t he gone and forgotten? It’s because all these goody-two-shoes did not uphold the law or redeem their oaths of office. Like Davide. Ngek! They would all be nothing without Erap to kick around.

  37. manuelbuencamino

    Bencard,

    You can draw all the moustaches you want on the faces of the opposition candidates but they will still look clean-shaven when compared to your bearded lady.

  38. DJB

    Kiko Pangilinan tells Ricky Carandang with a straight face that he believes it is his independent stand that put him in SWS survey’s top spot, making him “the Silent Majority Leader.”

    Really??

    I don’t suppose the Sharonians have anything to do with it.

    Where would he be in the polls, I wonder, if he weren’t Mr. Megastar himself.

    At least the movie stars who are running make their own movies and fame.

  39. inidoro ni emilie

    ditto for mr. vilma santos.

  40. Mita

    at least Ralphie doesn’t owe Ate Vi his surname!

    but yeah, Kiko is a disappointment…too safe and boring even running independently – which he probably wouldn’t have done without Ms. Moneybags..

  41. Aames

    “He’s Harvard Law School ferchrissakes…”

    Pangilinan isn’t HLS.

  42. moks

    I lived in the province, and have been to remote places and islands in the country. And I have seen how these people votes. People will vote on who are in the sample ballots… Kapitan or Kagawad or Mayor distributes. And I am quite sure these people are not reached by the Pulse Asia or whoever surveys.

    My prediction, it will be 4-8 in favor of Team unity. Absurd? Dagdag-bawas? Impossible? Nope – I call it machinery.

  43. benj

    Thanks for the shout out sir Manolo! 😛

  44. cvj

    …I don’t suppose the Sharonians have anything to do with it. – DJB

    Maybe the Sharonians are the Silent Majority?

  45. Schumey

    I agree with the Dean, he has to stand on his own. So what if he called for GMA’s resignation? It could have been mere politics. Drilion has stuck by his side. I do believe that without Sharon by his side, he’s nothing.

    As for Joker, the Dean is spot on. He walked out and did not bury Erap. Without Erap, Kiko and Joker wouldn’t have legs to stand on. And Joker fights corruption as long as your last name isn’t Arroyo or Pidal.

  46. Mita

    moks, you are so right.

    that is the whole story of this election, start to finish, right there – machinery. unless GO does something about that, no survey will take them to the Senate.

    but then, the local elections are still more important than the senate race…and we should start looking at each person running for congress because there’s going to be a lot of them.

    Just look at Pacquiao…looks like he won’t be running after all. If the idea hadn’t floated around sooner and public sentiment wasn’t so strong against his running, he probably would’ve just filed his candidacy and won.

  47. The Ca t

    My prediction, it will be 4-8 in favor of Team unity. Absurd? Dagdag-bawas? Impossible? Nope – I call it machinery.

    That’s the reality that the survey believers would not accept and GMA haters would not like to hear.

  48. rego

    I think Kiko is right when he claimed that his being independent is what makes no 1 in the surveys. The reality is people are just sick and tired of this heavy politcal partisanship.

    I believe too that Kiko indeed made a good stand in by insisting on going independednt despite the opposition twisting of arms..

    If he tops this election then malakas na sampal kay primadona Loren yun. And she can kiss her presidential ambition goodbye.

  49. rego

    Just like moks, I grow in a remote and very rural area too.

    Actually, I belong to a political clan in 60’s and 70s ( before martial law) My grand uncle is in the was once a governore and my grandfather in teh mother side is a three term mayor. My uncle was the elected vice gorvernor in the last election but was not able to finish his term because he died in office.

    Yes, in the rural areas, the game is entirely different. Grassroots machinery is very important as Moks pointed. And its is very important that the machinery should go to deep into the municipal and baranggay level. Because people will just vote for candidates in the sample ballot of the distributed by the local officials.

    In addition to what Moks has pointed out, MONEY is very very important too. Between two kagawads who distribute opposing sample ballots. The one distributed with P100 bill got written in the real ballot

    Unfortunately, these TWO IMPORTANT FACTORS the opposition doesn’t have.

    Botante, Manuel Buencamino et al shoudl really take a leave from blogging in the meantime. They should go to the rurals areas and help the oppsistion distribute sample ballots. If they really wanted their impossible dream realized.

  50. rego

    Folks like PDI love to portray Joker as a brilliant human rights lawyer. But did he prosecute Erap successfully. – DJB

    ——————————————————–
    Simple, its because people power took over the Erap Impeachhment. And Erap was properly charged in Sandigan bayan. Therefore the government lawyers has to take over the prosecution of . The only way for Joker to go on prosecuting Erap all the way to Sandiganbayan is for him to resign as senator.

    Now Joker Arroyo can not and should not be judged only for the Erap Impeachment. He has track record from pre martial law , to martial , to post martial law pre EDSA post EDSA.

    From street parliamentarian, to executive secretary, to congressman, to senator. Joker did is job very well. And people knows that. The only reason some people who are pro oppsition is not voting for him becuase he is in the administration line up.

    But if you really review thoroughly the past two years It was Joker Arroyo who opposed Gloria bitterly and properly. And most effective at that becuase its he do it in the proper forum and that produces results. Now show me what Lacson, Loren, Pangilinan, and Pimentel has done….

    And these “opposistion kuno” has the gall to claim harassment from malacanang?????????????

Fetch more comments

Leave a Reply