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Feb 07

Who are in play?

A week before the deadline for the filing of senatorial candidacies, the clincher for some aspirants might be the latest Pulse Asia survey on senatorial preferences.

The names, and their rankings, are interesting. Basically, let’s consider the top 20 (Legarda to Biazon) names as those that are seriously in play for the campaign.
Table Pes2007Senpref
Table2 Pes2007Senpref
Or are they? This is a misleading list, because it measures possible, and not certain, candidacies. The list includes names submitted to it by clients but not names that emerge spontaneously from the electorate. This list is interesting because you can see who thought it worth their while to see (or have someone see) how they might do in an election, were it held today.

Some things might be inferred: showbiz candidates are weaker than the Palace thinks; affiliation with showbiz can’t account for everything: why would Pangilinan be several notches above Recto? Is it just that Sharon has more clout than Vilma? Could Pangilinan’s declaration the President ought to resign be a factor, along with the rest to explain why he is rating higher than the risk-averse Recto?

Note from the above that there are two figures in play: “Awareness,” and “Voting For.” As a public relations professional explained it to me, the relationship between the two works as follows. Let’s take Senator Angara:

Edgardo “Ed” J. Angara Aware: 92 Voting For: 24.0

Basically, this means that 92% of voters already know who he is; that of those polled, 24% or slightly under a quarter of the voters, intend to vote for him. We can infer that he has just about reached the peak of his potential as a candidate. The most he could gain -if there was ever such a thing as 100% awareness- is 8%, for a total of 32% of the vote (and that’s a big if), which means he could only aspire to bumping off Alan Peter Cayetano.

But this requires several miracles: first, 100% awareness; second, 100% of the voters hitherto unaware of him; third, that 100% of those already inclined to vote for him don’t change their minds.

Gilbert Remulla, for example, with a 54% awareness level but 10.9% voting for preference, can go much higher with a respectable basis of support. Gilbert Teodoro is known only to 27% of voters, of whom 1.2% would vote for him: he has nowhere to go but up, too; although the uphill climb for those without resources such as Adel Tamano and Randy David would have made their candidacies practically impossible.

The PR expert suggested that those poring over these survey results would conclude, instead, that Angara is nowhere near the strength he should have considering he doesn’t have much more to aspire to, in terms of voter awareness. That in fact, he will probably have nowhere to go but down -unless he counts, as he does, on government machinery.

The list of those really in play hasn’t been announced yet. The real gauge of who is in play, or not, will be the first survey taken immediately after the deadline for filing candidacies, when the public knows who are seriously running or not.

Update: Philippine Commentary says I got it all wrong (which may indeed be more likely than the PR person I talked to having no clue). I personally don’t see the difference between the two explanations!

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  1. Jowana Balana Bueser

    I agree that the ‘real gauge of who is in play or not will be the first survey taken immediately after the deadline for filing candidacies’ BUT only for certain candidates. I think that the outcome of the elections will be more or less the same as the series of surveys being conducted. Unless Garci does something miraculous again.

    I just hope that the two senators who continuously bank on the star power of their wives ends up on the loosing side.

  2. DJB

    Yup, we gotta wait
    till all the horses show up
    at the starting gate.

    An interesting area of speculation though is who will be the topnotcher in the race. I always thought that Loren Legarda was sure of gaining that distinction a second time. But looking at Alan Peter Cayetano’s numbers and that upgrade of Tony Leviste’s charge to murder, I’m not too sure any more.

    With only 80% awareness APC is already in the sureball winners circle. He has the greatest potential for topping the race or at least giving Loren a run for her money. Even though she made her split with Gov. Leviste public some time ago, the awareness of that fact may not match her own 96%. It will negatively impact her campaign as that murder story won’t be going away soon and the administration is sure to use it against her in a dirty tricks campaign.

    But topnotcher position will have many implications for 2010. APC is an up and comer. He does not carry her baggage. If he plays things right, he could be first or second. From there, the sky’s the limit for this young man. Mark him!

  3. manuelbuencamino

    why are we looking at this election as if it will not be determined by cheating? All the signs that massive cheating will occur are there ( the statements of ebdane and abalos, the appointment of Garci lieutenants in ARMM) and yet we continue to handicap the election as if it were going to be aboveboard.Or even remotely clean.

    If anything, next May will tell us how good Gloria’s cheating machine really is.

    Those lists and their rankings have changed very little since the ones taken last June and October. Gloria is the tarbaby and there’s no way her slate will win without massive cheating. Keep your focus on the machine and not the handicappers.

  4. UPn student

    manuBuen… maybe the immediate People Power should be in front of COMELEC. And BEFORE… not after the elections.

  5. DJB

    MB,
    Life is a fatal disease. So why bother living? There are tax cheats all over the place, and thieves in govt positions. Should we therefore opt out of paying taxes? The suggestion to boycott the elections, or not to vote in it at all because an attempt to cheat its results will surely be made, makes no sense at all, except to those who think Democracy offers a guarantee of good results. But look, even in the 1998 elections, which were generally regarded as honest and fair, the result was terrible–the people elected Erap. At that point in time, should we have boycotted it, when all the surveys showed him winning by a landslide? Even now, popularity certainly trumps intelligence in the polls. Even if the polls were honest, this fact alone would seem to be an argument to boycott the elections.

    In other words, the deeds of good and honest men, ought not be thwarted by those of evil and immoral women and their midgets. We are not so helpless against cheating as we might think. The Public has learned an awful lot about the technology of cheating, as the need for innovation by the operators like Garci during every election shows.

    Also they are not omnipotent. It’s really, really difficult to cheat for even one candidate, as the frantic calls of Gloria to Garci clearly shows the need for “nag-mamatch?” and “kumpleto?” showed in one of the conversations. The Senate races will be much harder to cheat. Not that they won’t try. But we ought not to give up either.

    “Ang pikon, talo.” as they say.

  6. rego

    If I were to boycott the election, it is not for teh cheating. It would be becuase I despise the whole exercise. I may end up just doing that….

  7. jm

    I’ll vote for Alan Peter Cayetano. That’s one good reason for me not to boycott the May elections.

    And it is Alan’s outstanding winnability that gives him the credibility to call for a boycott and a remarkable moral leadership that Prof Randy David cited as the missing factor “why not boycott the elections” to lead one that will confront this administration in a face-off on the most serious unresolved issues of this administration’s lying, cheating and strealing.

    Alan’s potential to be the annointed one in this unfolding historical prophet generation is a glimmering light on the horizon.

  8. Mike

    To Mike Arroyo and his cronies in the House:

    Congratulations! By picking on Alan Peter Cayetano, it looks like you’ve just succeeded in getting him elected to the Senate. Well done!

  9. manuelbuencamino

    djb,

    Did I mention boycott?

    I said focus on the cheating machine and not the handicappers.

    In other words, if you want to ensure “the people’s will be done” then you should protect your vote. Make sure everybody knows that Gloria is serious about stealing this election by pointing out the steps she has taken to make it happen.

    Gloria is not even going to campaign because she knows her endorsement is a kiss of death. Ngayon pa lang alam na natin na talo na ang mga kabayo niya kung siya ang magiging hinete. So handicapping is a waste of time. Voting and protecting your vote is not.

  10. by-stander

    the arroyos will move heaven and hell to prevent Alan Peter Cayetano from winning a senate seat. if he thinks that the surveys will makes him a sure winner he is a fool. the admin senatorial bets will win this election against all surveys notwithstanding. the immensely popular FPJ was no match to this lady in cunning and determination to win at all cost. she know what is at stake and will break all rules if need be to crush the opposition. danding cojuangco will never ally himself to a loser.

  11. Nick

    Excellent comments everyone. I can’t wait until all the candidates are filed. It’s ridiculous that they wait until the last minute anyway.

    I have to agree with MB, regarding the setting in which the upcoming election is taking place. Gloria has indeed taken the steps in appointing key positions with known Garci allies..

    @DJB, your passion is refreshing!

  12. Edwin

    Im going for Chiz Escudero, he is a sure winner.

    Cayetano in the other hand I dont know but he got young blood din eh. Trillanes I think will win too.

    im going to try to campaign for those young bloods to win.

  13. vic

    Boycotting election, unless a nationwide success,won’t mean squat but just less ballots to tabulate, and may even achieve the opposite results. The election returns be 90 % of voters cast their votes of less than half of the voters still a valid result. so unless a boycott a 100 % proposition, it is the weakest of protests.

  14. rego

    Vic,

    What I was feeling is that I really dont like the way this electoral process is developing. I dont feel like I wanted to be a part of it. There is really no candidates that I really wanted to vote. So I should I force my self to participate when I will never be happy and satisfied with the outcome?

    We have debated for so long, hurt soooo many people… and all we got is this? Such a waste of time, energy, and money. Id rather focus all my energy on the party list election and help Ang Lalad get elected. It has more meaning to me than the senatorial election. I’ll just put XXXX in the senatorial ballots.

    BTW as OAV, Im allowed to vote only for senators and party list.

  15. elessar

    We surely need young bloods in the senate, but the likes of Peter Cayetano and Chiz Escudero are unacceptable. What differ them from the trapos whom we despise? And to think that APC do not have even have the slightest delicadeza not to run for senate knowing that his sister is still there – so much for hope and morals in Philippine politics. And how about Chiz? My Golly! Puro lang siya porma, pa-pogi, at satsat! YOu people should visit Sorsogon and see for yourself what has he done or his family (another case of these stinking political dynasties!) all their years in power there — for you will see nothing! Many Bicolanos won’t even vote for me — like myself and many of my friends and colleagues! Young bloods? Definitely we need them now more than ever — in my opinion, what we need are the likes of Trillanes and Atty. Biazon (who shy away from being part of a possible kamag-anak inc. at the senate! goodness! do these families have the monopoly of intellect and right to public service?!) — fresh, truly progressieve, dynamic, patriotic, and HINDI TRAPO. Manolo has mentioned other possible senatorables in one of his comments na pupuwede (kaya lang ayaw natin dahil hindi naman “winnable”! Winnability ba talaga? or Capacity and integrity?)And pwede ba kayong mga recycled politicos por pabor maawa na kayo sa amin, give us hope and give chance to fresh and young blood to enter!!!

    Also, on cheating!? I honestly believe GMA and his cohorsts do not have the monopoly on this department. Oppositions CHEAT TOO! Come on, let’s wake up everyone! Let’s not be naive at all! Do you really believe that the Escuderos or the Cayetanos or Mayor BINAY do not have blood on their hands too!? Isn’t the name of the game now!? Gulangan!? Dayaan!?

    You know what we need? For me, its a total overhauling of the electoral process and culture! Pag wala nang gustong tumanggap ng pera, walang magtatangkang mandaya! Ayusin ng COmelec ang trabaho nila! Kung mahirap o impossible nang mandaya sa eleksyon, abay walang magtatangka! Or may be we can look at good models all over the world, learn from these, and even maybe, adopt one…

    Ang mga kabataan (including young politicians) wag nang gumaya sa mga halimbawa ng mga walanghiyang trapong ito! Ang mga nasa tamang posisyon at kakayahan ay dapat magtulungan para unti-unti (kung hindi man madalian) na i-“educate” ang karamihan kung pano nga ba dapat piliin ang dapat mailukluk sa posisyon.

    Populiradad ba talaga!? or Kapasidad!?

    And we need to this on a huge and sustained scale to be led, may be, by the Church and Academe (or even the young generation of this country) and to be supported by like-minded apolitical groups and institutions.

    Lahat tayo mag-isip nang mabuti, what kind of people do we really need in the government?

    Yes mind you, I and rego may not be alone in these times! People like us are starting to despise this exercise and the impending one (My golly! I just shiver in disgust to see the likes of John Osmena again or of Tito Sotto or Aquino-Oreta and the possibility of seeing them struting their wares in the senate halls!, ang mga walang hinto “pagbabalimbingang” ng mga ito at ng iba pa (proving that their decisions are not even principle-based but everything for their own convenience — so do we expect them to sacrifice for our country while giving up their vested self-interest?!), and the quality of those who are already running) — noting that COMELEC has not really done anything to make this election credible and believable on the first place!

    Haay naku..I dream now that we could still see the day when another young Ninoy Aquino, or Raul Roco, or Salonga, or even Joker Arroyo and all those selfless, progressive-thinking senators of the good old past will once again spring out from the smoke of Philippine politics, boldly refusing and even dismantling another disgusting “machine-cum-monster” that has been known now as “traditional politics” and give us more reasons to hope…to dream…and yes, to VOTE!

    Ako’y naniniwala na marami naman tayo nang mga tulad nila, nandyan sa tabi-tabi, baka nga ang iba ay kabilang sa mga nagbigay ng magagandang komento sa blogsite na ito (including the author)– ang problema na naman WINNABILITY! And POPULARITY!

    Haay…God help us and this country!

  16. hvrds

    Forget about the horse races nationally. Get involved locally up to the provincial level.

    A formula for starving the beast…..

    I believe 99.9 % of local officials do not realize the awesome powers they have. Governors can now challenge the national government on taxation. Governors should move to decentralize taxation with the national government relegated only to income taxes. All indirect taxes should be the purview of provincial governments. That means VAT or any other indirect taxes – license fees, road taxes (sharing of taxes for national roads)etc (to include land and resource management.) Decentralize almost all domestic agencies to provincial governments. Only national defense, customs, environment and national infrastructure building (with local participation.)

    The local governors do not need legislation. Just do it. The constituion is broken; move to establish a new reality on the ground and follow it up with a new constitution.

    Destroy the beast in the center. Destroy the central government by simply abandoning it. Deny it the fuel that runs it. Taxes.

    Establish provincial fiscal and monetary boards. Impose provincial regulations and oversight over banks in each province. (Decentralize and break up the BSP)

  17. John

    Hi Manolo. I’m afraid that PR guy you talked to was talking through his hat!

    http://newsstand.blogs.com/newsstand/2007/02/wrong_pr_advice.html

  18. eli

    We surely need young bloods in the senate, but the likes of Peter Cayetano and Chiz Escudero are unacceptable. What differ them from the trapos whom we despise? And to think that APC do not even have the slightest delicadeza not to run for senate knowing that his sister is still there – so much for hope and morals in Philippine politics! And how about Chiz? My Golly! Puro lang siya porma, pa-pogi, at satsat! YOu people should visit Sorsogon and see for yourself what has he done or his family (another case of these stinking political dynasties!) all their years in power there — for you will see practically nothing really significant and had made a long-term positive impact on the lives of the people of Sorsogon! Many Bicolanos won’t even vote for me — like myself and many of my friends and colleagues! Young bloods? Definitely we need them now more than ever — in my opinion, what we need are the likes of Trillanes and Atty. Biazon (who shy away from being part of a possible kamag-anak inc. at the senate! goodness! do these families have the monopoly of intellect and right to public service?!) — fresh, truly progressieve, dynamic, patriotic, and HINDI TRAPO. Manolo has mentioned other possible senatorables in one of his comments na pupuwede (kaya lang ayaw natin dahil hindi naman “winnable”! Winnability ba talaga? or Capacity and integrity?)And pwede ba kayong mga recycled politicos por pabor maawa na kayo sa amin, give us hope and give chance to fresh and young blood to enter!!!

    Also, on cheating!? I honestly believe GMA and his cohorsts do not have the monopoly on this department. Oppositions CHEAT TOO! Come on, let’s wake up everyone! Let’s not be naive at all! Do you really believe that the Escuderos or the Cayetanos or Mayor BINAY do not have blood on their hands too!? Isn’t the name of the game now!? Gulangan!? Dayaan!?

    You know what we need? For me, its a total overhauling of the electoral process and culture! Pag wala nang gustong tumanggap ng pera, walang magtatangkang mandaya! Ayusin ng COmelec ang trabaho nila! Kung mahirap o impossible nang mandaya sa eleksyon, abay walang magtatangka! Or may be we can look at good models all over the world, learn from these, and even maybe, adopt one…

    Ang mga kabataan (including young politicians) wag nang gumaya sa mga halimbawa ng mga walanghiyang trapong ito! Ang mga nasa tamang posisyon at kakayahan ay dapat magtulungan para unti-unti (kung hindi man madalian) na i-“educate” ang karamihan kung pano nga ba dapat piliin ang dapat mailukluk sa posisyon.

    Populiradad ba talaga!? or Kapasidad!? WINNABILITY!?

    And we need to this on a huge and sustained scale to be led, may be, by the Church and Academe (or even the younger generation, up-and-coming leaders of this country) and to be supported by like-minded groups and institutions.

    Lahat tayo mag-isip nang mabuti, what kind of people do we really need in the government during these crucial times?

    Yes mind you, I and rego may not be alone in these times! People like us are starting to despise this exercise and the impending one (My golly! I just shiver in disgust to see the likes of John Osmena again or of Tito Sotto or Aquino-Oreta and the possibility of seeing them again strutting their wares in the senate halls!, ang mga walang hinto “pagbabalimbingang” ng mga ito at ng iba pa (proving that their decisions are not even principle-based but everything for their own convenience — so do we expect them to sacrifice for our country while giving up their vested self-interest?!), and the quality of those who are already running) — noting that COMELEC has not really done anything to make this election credible and believable on the first place!

    Haay naku..I dream now that we could still see the day when another young Ninoy Aquino, or Raul Roco, or Salonga, or even Joker Arroyo and all those selfless, progressive-thinking senators of the good old past will once again spring out from the smoke, ashes and all of Philippine politics, boldly refusing and even dismantling another disgusting “machine-cum-monster” that has been known now as “traditional politics” and give us more reasons to hope…to dream…and yes, to VOTE!

    Ako’y naniniwala na marami naman tayo nang mga tulad nila, nandyan sa tabi-tabi, baka nga ang iba ay kabilang sa mga nagbigay ng magagandang komento sa blogsite na ito (including the author)– ang problema na naman WINNABILITY! And POPULARITY!

    Haay…God help us and this country!

  19. eli

    ooops sori guys. i thot the first one did not register coz i got disconnected the first try — and the rather long and intense comment as well. apologies.

  20. cvj

    mlq3, i think the link to Philippine Commentary above should be pointing to Newsstand instead.

  21. noni

    I agree with eli. Chiz or CHIZmoso ( The youth here dubbed him) is a modern day but undercover Trapo!! Why? If he’s a sincere candidate he won’t be using such KENGKOY / kembutan pol ads, like let’s do the chiz, say chiz, to attract the just riding on masses and cool dudes youth groups, anyway kaligayaan niya yan!!! We’ve seen several trapos in past who used kengkoy pol ads to attract the masses. Majority of the Pinoys won’t notice the hidden trapo in chiz, because he’s young, and concealing it with his emotive/dramatic ways! I was in Sorsogon last summer and boy oh boy, Ayon sa mga taga roon walang nagawa ang deputadong representante nila sa loob ng siyam na taon! kundi mag papogi at porma sa kamera!! sugod daw kasama si chiz?? mag isa na lang kamo siya. tyak puro rally inggay lang gawin niyan sa senado!! tama ka noy boses mo sa senado??? yun ang gawin niya, same as what he did in the house of representatives, noise, noise, noise!!!

  22. bino ng tondo

    CHIZmozo Escudada was never a boses ng mga taga Sorsogon in Congress . He was a boses ni ERAP FPJ. He’ll never be a boses natin sa Senado!

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