Arab News Newspaper: From Statesman to Political Hack

From Statesman to Political Hack Manuel L. Quezon III

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Claro M. Recto who could be devastatingly sarcastic, once said of the most famous son of Cebu, the great Don Sergio Osmeña that, “the problem with Sergio is that he is a statesman while in Manila but a politician when in Cebu.” When former Chief Justice Hilario Davide decided to take his oath as our representative to the United Nations, he did so without technically breaking the law. After all, Fr. Joaquin Bernas says it was ok. But was it politically wise? By all means, our country deserves the services of former chief justices, but no chief justice should demean himself by insisting on serving if Congress won’t have him. Davide, in my opinion, should have waited before taking that oath. There’s a story about the late Chief Justice Ramon Avanceña. In retirement for over a decade, he once had to fill out a form before a notary public in Iloilo. The notary public took the form and was going to stamp and sign it. “Jurame,” the retired chief justice insisted, which means, “swear me in.” The notary public said there was no need to go through the formalities in view of the chief’s high rank. “If the chief justice does not comply with the law, how can anyone else be expected to,” AvanceÙŒa replied, gently but firmly. “Jurame.” And so the notary public did, though 99.99 percent of Filipinos then and now probably ignore the requirement that all notarized documents have to be signed under oath. The point of this little parable is that a chief justice even when retired, has to set the example of almost being fanatically law-abiding even if it means political suicide. That’s the only way he can be statesman in Manila, Cebu, and New York. But as it is, Davide is poised to be the Filipino John Bolton. The controversial John Bolton, a known critic of the UN, was appointed US ambassador and permanent representative to the United Nations on March 7, 2005. The Democrats used every means to delay and block confirmation, including use of the filibuster. The result was that the US Congress went on recess without approving Bolton’s nomination. So Bush then made what’s called a “recess appointment,” which lasts for the lifetime of a sitting Congress or until the candidate is nominated again to the Senate. Then Bolton was renominated, but a Senate fighting an election didn’t act on the nomination. In November of last year, Bush then renominated Bolton so that he could be appointed before the current Congress expired. But as we know, the Republicans had done badly in the midterm elections. Knowing a Democratic-controlled Senate would give him an even harder time, on December, Bolton resigned his ambassadorship. Under our presidential system, the president appoints, and Congress confirms. But our system is rather different from the Americans. In the United States, the president appoints and the Senate provides what’s formally called “advice and consent.” That is, it accepts or rejects an appointments, whether to the Cabinet, or of an ambassador. In our system, the Senate and the House approve appointments. They do so by means of a joint committee called the Committee on Appointments. In cases where there’s opposition, a president would try to win the nomination fight; but if he lost, he’d withdraw the nomination or the nominee would withdraw. Presidents like George W. Bush might fight for a year or two, but eventually would accept political reality and look for a more acceptable nominee. In the Philippines, of course, traditions count for less and so, Justice Secretary Raul Gonzalez, for example, has been bypassed eight times. But he’s still there. But Congress has a lifetime, a three-year term; and its term is broken down into sessions, each of which lasts a year; and each year has its breaks, the recesses of Congress. Now what happens if a president makes an appointment, and the Congress is in recess, that is, taking one of its periodic breaks? A paragraph from Art. VII, Sec. 16 of the Philippine Constitution tells us. “The President shall have the power to make appointments during the recess of the Congress, whether voluntary or compulsory, but such appointments shall be effective only until disapproved by the Commission on Appointments or until the next adjournment of the Congress.” This power, like any presidential power, has been challenged in the courts. In Pimentel vs. Ermita, Cabinet appointments made during the congressional recess were challenged by senators. The question involved the Latin phrase “ad interim,” which we saw was a designation used even in embassies, to denote an officer-in-charge. The Supreme Court said that a president who appoints someone as an acting official, didn’t require congressional approval, even if the position is one the constitution says can’t be permanently filled without a congressional okay. But it did say that an “ad interim” appointment did required congressional approval. But the justices did go as far as to endorse this view penned in a textbook by Fr. Joaquin Bernas, one of the framers of our constitution: “Ad-interim appointments must be distinguished from appointments in an acting capacity. Both of them are effective upon acceptance. But ad-interim appointments are extended only during a recess of Congress, whereas acting appointments may be extended any time there is a vacancy. Moreover ad-interim appointments are submitted to the Commission on Appointments for confirmation or rejection; acting appointments are not submitted to the Commission on Appointments. Acting appointments are a way of temporarily filling important offices but, if abused, they can also be a way of circumventing the need for confirmation by the Commission on Appointments.” This goes to the heart of the recent, controversial appointment of Davide to the United Nations. In his Jan. 22 column, Fr. Bernas, said that critics of Davide’s appointment — and his decision to take his oath as ambassador — were wrong. Basically, Bernas says that since Davide’s was an ad interim appointment, the president made clever use of a loophole in our constitution: “There are only two ways in which an ad interim appointment may be terminated. First, it is terminated when Congress bypasses it, that is, when Congress adjourns without any action on the subject by the Commission on Appointments. But then, if so bypassed, the president can renew the ad interim appointment. There is no constitutional limit on the number of renewals. “Second, it is terminated when disapproved by the commission. Disapproval is the definitive signal that the appointment should end and not be renewed.” But a political appointee, by the nature of his appointment, may satisfy the requirements of the law but raise political questions. So when Davide insisted on taking his oath to be our permanent representative to the UN during the recent Cebu Summit, Davide was being a politician — a mere hireling of a president. And not a statesman, who would have never hidden behind an ad interim appointment. Â

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Palace cliques

So it’s official: the military’s in for some police supervision. A special report by Newsbreak vividly portrays the intense lobbying -and jockeying- that clinched the appointment:

In early December, the department got word that it would be Public Works Secretary Hermogenes Ebdane Jr. A few weeks later, a newspaper report leaked by a high-ranking government official pointed to Defense Undersecretary Ricardo Blancaflor as the likely one. By January, a third name had cropped up: National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales Jr.

The names floated partly represent the factions now working for the President—people who have stuck it out with her since six years ago when she was first catapulted to the presidency.

The winning faction? Well, see the factions and their candidates, and see who won:

A 1970 graduate of the Philippine Military Academy, Ebdane is closely associated with First Gentleman Jose Miguel “Mike” Arroyo, their relationship going back to months before EDSA 2, when Ebdane attended clandestine anti-Estrada meetings hosted by Mr. Arroyo.

Blancaflor is close to Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita, having served as one of his deputies when Ermita replaced Reyes as defense secretary. Blancaflor helped Ermita run the controversial “monitoring center” at the department during the 2004 presidential elections.

Gonzales, on the other hand, is a power center by himself—largely because the President likes his fast, sometimes shortcut solutions to problems and because he is a friend of two individuals who have the ears of the President: her brother Diosdado “Buboy” Macapagal Jr., who is on a par with the First Gentleman in terms of access to and influence over the President, and Jesuit priest Romeo “Archie” Intengan.

Perhaps this parapgraph is the most illuminating in a fact- and insight-filled story:

Sometimes, if the President wants things done, she would text five people to do the same thing for her, recalls a former politician who’s been with her for more than a decade. “She’s impatient, doesn’t pass through channels. She thinks that if she sends the message to five, one will deliver.”

Read the whole thing, as it discusses the power blocs that exist in the Palace; how they’ve developed; and other details, such as  the conversion of the President’s brother from a “dove” to a “hawk” and one of the chief proponents of martial law -and how ironically, the deal breaker was the military, which didn’t want to enforce martial law (which makes you wonder of news items like this: has there been a struggle going on even within the military, over how to handle the Left?):

We have it on good authority that Macapagal and Gonzales tried to persuade the President to declare martial law during this period. This move culminated in a visit of Gonzales to Washington, D.C. to drop hints about it to Philippine Ambassador Albert del Rosario, who opposed the idea, according to a friend of Del Rosario’s. (Del Rosario was sacked in June 2006.)

There was a series of top-level meetings about extreme measures to save the President (i.e., media and Left clampdown, arrest of “corrupt” politicians), says an insider, but in the end the idea flopped largely because the security forces—the police and military leaderships—displayed enough body language that said they didn’t have the stomach for it.

…The discovery and subsequent defeat of the coup toughened the view that by this time had begun to run through all the loyalist groups.

It went like this: she’s survived the worst because her opponents are weak and the public doesn’t care. This allows us room to push hard for changes and look even beyond 2010. “We had become very comfortable with power,” the Cabinet official concedes.

In other news, the senate race continues to grab the headlines. Francis Escudero was the first opposition candidate to file his papers for the senate race (accompanied by Susan Roces); The UNO Senate slate is almost-fully-formed (and pretty much a variation on the 4+4+2 ticket I discussed previously):

1. Manuel Villar, Jr.
2. Ralph Recto
3. Alan Peter Cayetano
4. Joker Arroyo
5. Francis Pangilinan
6. Benigno Aquino III
7. Panfilo Lacson
7. Francis Escudero
8. Loren Legarda
9. John Osmeña
10. Koko Pimentel
11. JV Ejercito

The 12th and last slot, I’d still wager, is a tossup between Edgardo Angara, Sonia Roco or Adel Tamano. But reports such as this may make an Angara alliance difficult with the opposition.

The Palace, on the other hand, claims the President has asserted her coalition leadership. Rep. Prospero Nograles says there’s no need for a caucus, and that the Lakas-CMd will abide by the President’s call for a “unity ticket”.

In other election-related news, the remaining Comelec vacancy may soon be filled; and Internet voting is apparently forbidden. And the Arroyos announce their candidates in Negros Occidental.

Silliest symbolic act: 3 solons go ‘fishing’ in Germany.

In the punditocracy, my Arab News column for this week is From Statesman to Political Hack.

Senate race related scuttlebutt and analysis from reporters RG Cruz (who debuts with his first formal opinion piece on ABS-CBN News online) who tackles both the administration and opposition’s considerations in forming their tickets, and Marichu Villanueva, who looks at opposition intramurals; Reli German, one of the strategists of the President, puts forward the Palace talking points on what’s going on.

Manuel Buencamino says he has a pithy rejoinder to the Palace talking points for the campaign:

“No matter how good she looks,

Some other guy is sick and tired,

Of putting up with her sh*t.”

The Inquirer editorial issues a warning on Gawad Kalinga.

Rene Bas says a new documentary by the son of war hero Chick Parsons will be released on February 3, to commemorate the Battle for Manila in 1945.

In the blogosphere, Tingog.com on a Filipina swindler in Canada. Torn and Frayed on why Filipinos walk so slowly in Western eyes (I’d give more points to the heat and how people don’t want to be sweaty and smelly).

Technorati Tags: documentary, elections, military, philippines, politics, president, Senate, state of emergency

Tamed or torpedoed

Tonight on The Explainer on ANC: How ambassadors are made. We’ll be discussing the appointment of Hilario Davide to the UN.

Let’s not forget that in politics, a “party split” or a “division on principle” can be very useful indeed. When the Manila Times trumpets that the President has decided to endorse the “unity ticket” concept, and that her allies are “irate” and “demand a caucus,” what does it mean?

Step back and refer to the blog of RG Cruz, in which he details the erosion of Lakas-CMD as the raiding by Kampi gathers momentum:

with FVR almost consigned to the sidelines, and an awesome presidential campaign kitty, there is a perception, that people are now going to Kampi and not Lakas, because it is the favored party., i.e. its candidates will get plum sums.

In the last few weeks,  many local politicians have been flocking to the party. cavite kicked it off. 100 more from eastern samar last thursday. of course JDV countered that many more have also been going to lakas, including the son of Kampi President Luis Villafuerte, Governor L-Ray Villafuerte.

Gabby Claudio of course quickly texted to say its all in the family, but really the developments do not sound like its all in the family.

So the question is, when someone warns of the perils of disunity, one has to ask why, for what reason? Is it fear that the bit player, Kampi, in the administration coalition, may be the dominant one soon? Reducing the former biggest player into tomorrow’s bit player?

I’d think it’s also about keeping the President’s options open. Her exit strategy (though personally I remain convinced it’s a non-exit strategy and the rhetoric of “first world status in 20 years!” is a trial balloon to see if the idea of extending her stay will fly) can be fostered by a couple of things:

1. Raiding the opposition, regardless of how Lakas feels, because in a pinch you want Eduardo Cojuangco dictating the votes of his NPC partymates in the senate and the house. The opposition will always vote against you.

2.  but a national vote can be massaged; as long as you block any chance for people to get unhealthy ideas on “winnability”, then you can claim a political upturn in your votes.

3.  There are “soft” and more “reliable” opposition members, and the politicals pros known it, as in a sense, the public knows it. There are the has beens, and the will have mores. The Palace, since it must confront the ultimate horror of a has been -relinquishing power- is comfortable with other has beens and couldn’t embrace the will have mores even if it wanted to.

The Senate race has Escudero filing his candidacy; the Liberals plugging their action plan; and scuttlebutt, courtesy of Alex Magno (see below) that Etta Rosales is up for inclusion in the UNO slate.

In other news, the national budget is passed. The Solicitor-General will fill lthe remaining vacancy in the Supreme Court. Soldiers unhappy with their future defense chief. The lynching of Cayetano may not take place (see what Billy Esposo has to say about the whole thing). Palparan might be in a wee bit of hot water.

Overseas, something I wish we’d see more of from our leaders: Nicolas Sarkozy, candidate for the presidency of the French, campaigns among French expats.

In the punditocracy, Alex Magno points out the bare essentials of the administration’s senate slate: the upper house, he says, “must be tamed or torpedoed.” We should be thankful he so bluntly states the game plan of the Palace:

Only the administration has the political machine and the electoral finances to get a senatorial slate to win. The way the senators are chosen (at large) in the present constitutional arrangement has made campaigning for a seat in this often irrelevant chamber too expensive for real statesmen to aspire for.

Ironically, the administration’s only interest in the senatorial elections is to prevent a rout (and all the unwarranted adverse perceptions that might cause). It does not require much more from this raucous but inconsequential chamber.

This administration has already delivered the point: either the Senate is tamed or it will be torpedoed.

Then, the Nation of Bangkok says the drafting of the new Thai constitution is going well.

In the blogosphere, David Kaiser reiterates why he thinks the United States is headed to a political and constitutional crisis. Basically, the neoconservatives have refused to accept the results of the midterm elections:

Because virtually no one else (except John McCain) now shares these views, we face a political and constitutional as well as a military and diplomatic crisis. The President and Vice President have set their judgment and that of a few ideologues against their own bureaucracy, a bipartisan majority of the Congress, and the American people, who registered their views in the election and continue to do so in polls. Because we have a conservative volunteer Army, the President–as he well knows and has actually remarked to friends–can get away with this without a national revolt. That cannot, however, make the policy a success.

Sounds familiar? The “they may not like it, but what will the public really do about it?” brinksmanship? But the weekend protest in Washington D.C. (see photos at A Hollywood Liberal) might be a sign of what Kaiser thinks is coming.

Mga Diskurso ni Doy thinks the “kiss of death” element of the administration isn’t being brought out enough. He thinks that Senate control is a major priority for the administration.

Big Mango bewails political dynasties. Much as I sympathize, the question remains: what makes us so unique? And the practice so uniquely reprehensible here? Every one of our neighbors is the same with the difference that they may have a little more to show for it, and a little more self-control; but for every country with fairly restrained dynasties you have other countries which make our dynasties look like saints in comparison. Dynasty-building -and people voting for dynasties- isn’t even an Asian thing; it’s a universal thing. The real question is, which countries practice freedom enough to keep dynasties competitive and answerable to the electorate. By that standard we do pretty well.

Iloilo City Boy says he thinks Iloilo governor Tupaz should have relinquished the provincial capitol. I’m not so sure. In ordinary circumstances, he should have; but the Department of the Interior was poised to evict him even before the deadline for court intervention had passed; and besides which, the Palace had already established it’s clearly out to purge local governments of the politically-unfriendly.

And Another Hundred Years Hence debates Paolo Alcazaren on what should be the priorities and impact of Filipino architects. Captain Aqua gets irked by the entourage of a VIP. Public Static on translation and the problems that arise from it.

Technorati Tags: Blogging, elections, military, Philippines Free Press, politics, president, Senate, society, urban renewal

If you can’t beat ‘em, confuse ‘em

(updated)

The Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines has issued its ritual calls for clean elections. The President immediately embraced the bishops, a tactic she’s perfected since 2005. The problem is that prelates thrive on nuance, which is anathema to politics. So, the bishops look like fools while the Palace goes full speed ahead with confidence-eroding activities like Ebdane’s appointment to Defense. As the Inquirer editorial puts it,

Nothing recommends ex-police General Hermogenes Ebdane for the position of defense chief—except his unquestioned loyalty to the President. In our view, that is not an asset but a liability. We need a secretary of national defense who is faithful not only to the President but to the military’s deepest, longest-term interests. Ebdane, emphatically, is not that man.

In past entries, I suggested Ebdane bucked the conventional wisdom that the military would never accept the indignity of being presided over by a cop; and so I thought his candidacy was a forlorn attempt at self-promotion. Other political observers I’ve talked to, however, thought that Ebdane was exacting the price of his loyalty and that the President would calculate Ebdane is more valuable than the opinions of the generals, who have weeded out the disgruntled from among their ranks and so made themselves redundant. I’ve heard it said the chief of staff was vehemently opposed to Ebdane; so now we know whose opinion counts for more, with the commander-in-chief. Cops win, but we all knew this since the President’s troubles began: in her mind, her ultimate insurance is the police, not the military.

In the senatorial race, the Liberal Party announces its slate, and there are indications  the LP-NP coalition is being formalized (the idea of such a coalition, incidentally, was first suggested for the 1957 elections, or half a century ago).  (Full disclosure, I’m not a member of the Liberal Party but I do sit on the board of the National Institute for Policy Studies, the LP think tank).

If the two parties have decided to form a slate it will most likely look like this:

1. Francis Pangilinan LP
2. Benigno Aquino III LP
3. Florencio Abad LP
4. Nereus Acosta LP
5. Lorenzo Tañada III LP
6. Rufino Biazon LP
7. Manuel Villar, Jr., NP
8. Ralph Recto, NP
9. Allan Peter Cayetano, NP
10. Joker Arroyo, PDP-Laban (“guest” NP candidate)
11. Edgardo Angara, LDP (“guest” NP candidate)
12. Koko Pimentel PDP-Laban (“guest” NP candidate)

Of these, though, perhaps Abad and Acosta will be expendable to form a 4-4-2-2 or 4-4-4 slate.

The Palace’s latest recruits bluntly state why they’ve pitched their tents in the president’s camp. But so far, so good for the Palace: they have the opposition trying to explain things, and when you explain, in politics, you lose.

In the punditocracy, former national treasurer Liling Briones brings up the perils of using “economic growth” as a justification for supporting the administration:

It is very easy to come to the conclusion that responsible voters should vote for administration candidates and do everything in their power to prevent such a “catastrophic” event!

People in the business and finance community who are making these public statements truly believe that a shift in the current balance of power will surely derail the country’s inevitable march to progress. As they make their PowerPoint presentations, chat in cocktails parties, give interviews and pose in the society pages, they wonder why other sectors don‘t agree with them…

In other words, the “virtuous spirals” are benefiting only certain sectors of the economy while the majority struggle grimly for survival. Is it any wonder they look for relief in elections?

…Like it or not, however, elections remain as the last peaceful mechanism for democratic reform. For many Filipinos, other alternatives are too dreadful to contemplate. To hint that the present administration must be supported in the coming elections is to lay to rest questions about its doubtful legitimacy, tolerate blatant human rights violations, participate in, and abet corruption, and ignore demands for public accountability.

One cannot assume that the present administration must be supported because: (a) it is responsible for the present economic growth, limited as it is; and (b) this growth will collapse if administration candidates lose. One can easily answer “not true” to both arguments.

The truth is, and this is something I’ve been trying to digest ever since I read “The Shield of Achilles” (Philip Bobbitt), is that a citizen confronted with the political issues raised in an election, is in direct competition with forces that are rendering the nation-state and its issues, obsolete. Bobbit states his thesis, thus (from the thesis introducing Part III):

The end of the Long War has been quickly followed by the emergence of a new constitutional order. This new form is the market-state. Whereas the nation-state, with its mass free public education, universal franchise, and social security policies, promised to guarantee the welfare of the nation, the market-state promises instead to maximize the opportunity of the people and thus tends to privatize many state activities and to make voting and representative government less influential and more responsive to the market.

Briones’ column brings this emerging system into sharp contrast. It matters less to a president whether her own people support her, or view her as legitimate and matter more that Bear Sterns, or Citibank, unelected, non-governmental but international, bodies, like her and believe her. If they do, then they have the power to coddle the economy; if they dislike her, are skeptical, or dislike those who oppose her, they can choose to punish her or those who might otherwise be poised to gain power. Their punishment and rewards come in the form of ratings: and their opinions end up trumping public opinion in any particular country.

Bong Austero, I’m pleased to note, validates another thesis, one I presented in this March, 2006  column:

…I don’t think that being rabidly anti-Estrada automatically translates into being pro-Arroyo.

But at least there are moments with this current President when people can actually still bask in some deflected glimmer of pride of being a Filipino, such as when one reads about her performance at the World Economic Forum at Davos, Switzerland. That does not erase many grievous mistakes, but it does account for something.

In contrast, what have the Estradas done for this country aside from trying to project themselves as the symbol of the suffering Filipino masses and as their last mythical hope for redemption?

Anyway, since the Bong Austeros represent (the way I look at it, anyway) a quarter of the voters, when you read things like Jarius Bondoc’s column, it becomes clear why the Palace strategy is to confuse the issues. It begins by pretending to criticize the Palace’s moves, but only as a means of underlining that old Palace propaganda line, “they’re all the same anyway” (which works to keep people like Bong Austero if not within the Palace camp, then closer to it in sentiment than to the opposition, which is just as useful):

Kiko, Noynoy’s LP-mate, is hesitant due to pleas from friends in civil society and because UNO has not invited reelectionist pal Joker Arroyo. If he joins UNO, he must face the question: was he in 2000 ever sincere in denouncing Estrada’s blundering, plundering Presidency? For a former street activist like Kiko, this is very different from rallying to protect “class enemies” Juan Ponce Enrile and Fidel Ramos from Marcos in 1986.

The confusion? Not even UNO is saying the NP-LP coalition should drop its identity; there is a difference between joining a group, and an alliance of groups, and Bondoc’s being intellectually dishonest in blurring over that distinction. But then, as with the President, so with Bondoc: the Big Lie is all that matters. Compare and contrast Bondoc’s column with Randy David’s which came out yesterday.

Gail Ilagan has an engrossing analysis of the Philippine Marines: that they’ve hyped themselves up:

I’ve been sifting through the newspapers in the last three months and the findings from my content analysis of stories from Sulu is enough to make this suggestion that the Marines are the only force to be reckoned with down there. We know that is not true. Why the skewed sampling then?

To my view, the other units still observe strict security of information and disclose to the public on the standard need to know basis through official channels. The Marines on the other hand seem to be for some time now romancing the media who, for certain obvious reasons, have very little choices in terms of credible sources of information down in Sulu. When one is desperate, he doesn’t ask questions. He’s just so happy for the lifeline you throw his way.

What is happening to the Marines? In my mind I still see Col. Ariel Querubin mouthing “It’s over” to his friends in the media. Gee, and this was just a few minutes after BGen. Allaga testily told off the press that “I am speaking for the Marines. Ariel is not talking” or something to that effect.

Technorati Tags: CBCP, elections, Philippines Free Press, politics, president, Senate, society

Lakas: we’re still strong

Jove Francisco’s entry on how Lakas-CMD seems out of the loop when it comes to senate slate formations, reminds me of an old entry in Katataspulong’s blog titled May Asim Pa.

The moneyshot:

But really, what’s the reaction of LAKAS after many of its members (mostly locals) jumped ship and are now sailing with PGMA’s KAMPI? He has no clear cut reaction.

And why is LAKAS seemingly being left out of the 3rd force? Save for Zubiri, of course, given if it is INDEED TRUE that he’s being wooed or invited.

All ES said is that “everything is still fluid” and that they are open to any proposition.

Right after the presscon, I called up the people behind the 3rd force.

I asked, why there is an impression that LAKAS is out of the loop?

The answer?

“Nobody likes bullies.”

Today Jove continues with the latest on the Palace spin on things: “Team Unity.” Also known as “The New Frontier” (shades of the 1st Macapagal administration’s being known as the “New Era” in 1961). It even includes blog-snatching, see Yuga.

Anyway, the Palace begins rolling out the red carpet for its new recruits. Or to be precise: announces the carpet may be rolled out, if it sees the public won’t mind.

Marichu Villanueva on Chinese gamblers who are then held hostage by local tour operators.

Jarius Bondoc says the mudslinging, if it turns into rock throwing, could assure mutually-assured destruction:

But then, a lot will depend on the tenor of the senatorial campaign. If the Estrada ticket happens to uncover too much corruption in Malacañang, then it can provoke retaliation. This could mean counter-exposés – of drug trafficking and summary killings – long overdue but held back for political convenience.

In the blogopshere, over in Pajamas Media, Richard Fernandez (more famously known as Wretchard) begins  has a special report on conflict in Mindanao, Islands in the War, Part 1 and Part 2. An interesting neoconservative look at what’s going on, with which I have this reservation: he does not look into more recent scholarship into the origins of the conflict that’s taken place there since the 1970s. Wretchard believes that Nur Misuari and the MNLF are part of an older nationalism; but if he were to refer to Patricio Abinales, who is from Mindanao and has written extensively on the nation-building efforts of the 1930s to 1950s, and the origins and ideology of the Bangsamoro, he might find useful ideas to modify his own. As I understand it, Abinales argues that traditional Muslim society was generally pro-American; that like the princely states in India, these traditional leaders at first felt wronged by their being made part of the Philippines and not a separate American protectorate; that the traditional leaders thereafter adapted themselves and were fairly successfully integrated into national politics from the Commonwealth onwards.

What emerged with the Leftist-influenced generation of Muslims represented by Misuari was a new, non-traditional Muslim nationalism, the idea of a Bangsamoro, a new idea and one dependent on the ideological development of other Muslims in the Nasser era: a break with traditional Muslim political and social behavior. That, in turn, was challenged by the militant Islam that challenged the secular pan-Arab nationalism of Nasser, again first in Egypt and which has since spread and is espoused as the idea of a new caliphate by Al-Qaeda, etc. See this article, in Slate: Is Osama the Martin Luther of Islam?

Torn & Frayed looks at a photoblog, My Sari-Sari Store, which he says is simply brilliant. He also notes that one of my favorite authors, and one who influenced me deeply, the Polish journalist Ryzard Kapuscinski, has passed away.

blurry brain warns that embracing Asean too tightly economically might not necessarily be in the national interest. Mongster’s Nest ponders the daily messages our roads send out -if only people would pause and be receptive to such messages.

In other matters, Stylus Magazine on marketing music for independent labels.

Technorati Tags: Blogging, elections, history, ideas, Middle East, military, philippines, president, Senate, war, Washington DC

A tripartite coalition

Alan Peter Cayetano is reaping immense political rewards from the persecution launched by the President’s husband: I caught a bit of yesterday’s dialogue, and the Arroyo lawyers may be practicing good law, but were undertaking inferior politics.

Cayetano (to Atty. Arroyo): “Do you bank accounts abroad?”

Lawyer: “That is not relevant to this hearing!”

Cayetano: “Do you have any holdings abroad at all?”

Lawyer: “That is not relevant to this hearing!”

Cayetano: “So you don’t have any money at all in any bank abroad?”

Lawyer: “The existence of banks abroad has not been established, so such banks do not legally exist!”

Chairman: “Yes, the existence of banks or accounts, or even what accounts exist in banks and what the banks have as different kinds of accounts, none of these things have been entered into evidence and so they do not exist, which means, you cannot ask about them-”

Cayetano: “But I am impeaching the credibility of Mr. Arroyo, so I must ask if he denies having any accounts abroad at all, because if he says he doesn’t, and I can prove he does, then he isn’t believable, is he? And-”

Chairman: “We will vote on the objection! You lose! We win!”

Lawyer: “Nothing exists legally because nothing has been introduced as evidence, and no evidence can be introduced because nothing exists to introduce!”

I’m loosely paraphrasing, of course. The news reports are more precise. How this is politically beneficial for Cayetano is demonstrated by this simple headline: President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s trip to Switzerland.

Cory Aquino turns 74 today. Manny Pacquiao got 20 exemptions for firearms for the campaign season, courtesy of the Comelec. That was yesterday’s news. Today, MindaNews asks, is he running? And for what?

If only I knew more about sports, I might have had a better chance of getting the analogy right. I think in some sports there’s a system known as ladders, to determine either the composition of teams, or the manner in which teams compete. Anyway, as it’s turning out, there seem to be different sub-teams in the Us Vs. Them contest known as the Senate race.

I. United Opposition
1. Alan Peter Cayetano
2. Chiz Escudero
3. Koko Pimentel
4. Loren Legarda
5. Panfilo Lacson
6. JV Ejercito*
7. Tito Sotto* (had pitched a “4+1″ ticket to Estrada: Gringo Honasan, Tessie Oreta, Tito Sotto, John Osmeña + Loren Legarda)
8. John Osmeña*

Of the UNO slate, Tito Sotto has jumped ship to the administration, bringing Tessie Oreta with him. That means a pretty high probability he will be dropped from the UNO slate. JV Ejercito isn’t too keen on running for the Senate, as his leaving the mayoralty of San Juan might cause political problems for them, and his constituents, ranging from big business, to resident’s groups, etc. are comfortable with him where he is. So he might simply run for re-election in San Juan. The Spoiler: John Osmeña, whom civil society will not support and who the political operators seem to believe won’t make for a strong candidate, anyway. So UNO has a firm 5-person slate (numbers 1-5 above).

II. LP-NP-PDP-Laban Coalition
1. Manny Villar
2. Ralph Recto
3. Joker Arroyo (he is running, after all, the political pros say)
4. Kiko Pangilinan
5. Noynoy Aquino

This was originally known as the “third force,” has since morphed into the “reelectionist bloc,” is more properly an LP-NP-PDP Laban Coalition. The Spoiler: the possible LDP addition: Edgardo Angara, which would ruffle UNO and Civil Society feathers.

III. Civil Society candidates
1. Sonia Roco
2. Adel Tamano

These are basically the names I’ve heard discussed as the ones to be endorsed.

I+II+III = 5+5+2 = 12. A full and pretty formidable slate, which won’t please everyone but won’t be a cause for infighting like some of the original slates mentioned; most of all, it could be put forward as a unified coalition slate. It’s important for all three components to put forward a unified slate, as it will leave no room for the administration to sneak in its candidates.

Of course it ain’t over until all the different groups iron out their respective slates and agree to a unified ticket, but I think the prospects are better than they’ve ever been.

Personally, as my column for today, The Amazing Race points out, I think UNO deserves credit for avoiding some of the more noxious personalities that wanted its endorsement; and a solid, 12-person slate for a tripartite coalition serves as a reassurance to the public that first, unity is possible, second, that it doesn’t mean succumbing to a surrender-to-the-Palace attitude, that third, it’s about much more than what the Palace says the race is about. My sense, though, is that there might be tensions between Ernesto Maceda and Jejomar Binay. Maceda  is identified with the NPC, where Sotto and Oreta have moved, while Binay who is looking to the future and not back to the past in terms of what the slate should represent. (Incidentally, in my column I quote Migs Zubiri whom I ran into last Tuesday at ANC says he influenced the Speaker’s about-face in December; now see Newsbreak’s analysis of how it may be premature to think the Speaker is down and out on his political luck).

As for the Palace, rumors of a full slate remain just that, though what seems to be emerging, so far, is is its “Unity Ticket”:

1. Mike Defensor
2. Miguel Zubiri (who officially owns the rights to “Boom Tarat-tarat,” at a lower price than what others offered, because of his friendship with the composer)
3. Edu Manzano
4. Tessie Aquino-Oreta*
5. Tito Sotto*
6. Gilbert Teodoro*
7. Richard Gomez
8. Prospero Pichay

The rest will be for decoration. If it manages to get its six elected by whatever means, the administration wins, because a minimum of 8 new senators will have to be reliable in terms of impeachment, defending the senate, and opposing shenanigans involving the constitution, etc., to keep the administration on its toes (the asterisks for Sotto and Oreta indicate their affiliation with the NPC, whose big chief is you-know-who, and you-know-who’s bottom line is an accomodation with the PCGG, so his people will toe the party line to be sure).

In the punditocracy, the Inquirer editorial looks at concern even among Palace allies, over its Iloilo invasion.

Filomeno Sta. Ana III focuses in more scientific terms, on the exchange rate problem:

Although the adverse effect on exporters is commonly emphasized, it must be pointed out that domestic producers for the local market, whose inputs are mainly local, likewise suffer from a continuing peso appreciation.  A peso appreciation makes the prices of competing imports cheaper. Hence, local producers lose market share, grabbed from them by imports. A qualification though is in order:  The simulation done for Philexport, using 2002 data obtained by ADB, revealed a slight decline (-0.18 percent) in average sales of net importers.

In fine, the continued appreciation of the peso, leading to its overvaluation, is injurious to the real, productive sector of the economy, negatively affecting employment and income.

Lito Banayo takes a more satirical approach to the same thing.

Newsbreak has pointers on how to view political ads.

Philippine Commentary reacts to last Tuesday’s The Explainer. While in The Digitial Pinoy, a viewer reacts to a recent appearance I made on GMA7’s Reporter’s Notebook.

Anyone interested in how diplomacy between allies works, and how the United States doesn’t let emotions intrude into its dealings even with its closest allies, should watch Mortgaged to the Yanks. Apparently, it wasn’t until December 31, 2006 that the UK paid off its war debts to the USA. The story of how the United States thwarted John Maynard Keynes’ efforts to secure favorable economic terms at the end of World War II, makes for fascinating viewing.

Technorati Tags: Blogging, elections, philippines, politics, Senate

The Long View: The amazing race

THE LONG VIEW
The amazing race 

 

By Manuel L. Quezon III
Inquirer
First Posted 00:52am (Mla time) 01/25/2007

Published on page A11 of the January 25, 2007 issue of the Philippine Daily Inquirer

THE scuttlebutt is that the administration has wooed Tessie Aquino-Oreta and Tito Sotto to their side, to co-star in the Palace’s senatorial lineup. If true, the news isn’t surprising after the two mounted a big production about leaving Edgardo Angara’s LDP party and moving to Eduardo Cojuangco’s NPC party. The broad smile of Richard Gomez a week or so ago, after he met with a Palace political operative, might be another broad hint of what is to come.

Since block voting was abolished in the 1950s and the restriction of election inspectors to the two-party system was made obsolete by the multi-party system, there has been no incentive for the voter to vote “straight,” that is, entire slates. The electorate mixes and matches, and a senatorial candidate’s individual reputation or record trumps party affiliation every time.

What does matter is the standing of the administration in the public’s opinion at any given time. An unpopular administration will harm senatorial candidates affiliated with it; a popular one will boost the chances of even the middling candidates. And a thoroughly unpopular one may be able to “cheat-in” some, but not all, of its candidates, but not enough to totally skew the electorate’s verdict.

I think, then, it would be a mistake to attribute all opposition, or reservations, to the idea of a slate coming from outside the leadership of United Opposition (UNO), to “pro” Estrada or “pro” Arroyo people. First of all, a third force will be hard put to run a full slate, anyway. Secondly, there will be a certain overlap based on a simple reality: any UNO slate will have more in common with a non-UNO, but, at the very least, ambivalent — if not outright hostile — to the administration slate. Notice that both the UNO and non-UNO senatorial slates, presented in preliminary terms, usually include Kiko Pangilinan, Manny Villar and Chiz Escudero.

My personal approach in vetting senatorial candidates is to ask these questions:

1. Which candidate would at least view impeachment with an open mind, or if with a closed one, then at least in favor of a more democratic attitude, which is, to impeach?

2. Which candidate would have an interest in defending the rights of the Senate (and the constituency it represents, the nation), in the face of hostility, and a lack of cooperation, from the executive?

3. Which candidate would be in a good position to derail any future mischief concerning the Constitution, specifically in terms of efforts to undermine it by either ignoring the Senate or foisting a grand deception like the so-called “people’s initiative”?

Obviously, on all three counts, any administration slate would be disqualified, too bad for the administration candidates. For example, just the other day, I had the chance to ask Miguel Zubiri all three questions and he didn’t hedge on his answers: He would approach impeachment with an open mind; personally favor a regionally elected Senate; and support amendments to that end, but he would oppose any amendment effort that would ignore the Senate. (He also told me that, together with Gilbert Teodoro and Ben-Hur Abalos, he, in fact, convinced the Speaker to backtrack on his unilateral effort to force through Charter change.) He also said the public has vocally insisted on electing a president, which means the parliamentary system won’t fly, and he is opposed to any sort of a “bastardized” hybrid political system: what is necessary is to strengthen political institutions, not weaken or confuse them. I am sure he’s sincere, and he will match his beliefs with actions if elected.

But any administration slate will be under tremendous pressure to acquit the President at all costs, if there will be an impeachment. This is when belonging to a Senate bloc could weaken a senator’s resolve to act independently. An administration bloc, too, would roll over, die, or wag its tail in the face of executive efforts to ignore the Senate or bend it to its will; and it would participate gladly in efforts to amend the Constitution to build a one-party, unicameral parliament.

All roads lead to Valentine’s Day — when UNO has to firm up its slate, other groups opposed to the administration (and skeptical over or at least uneasy with UNO) have to announce theirs, and the Palace has to plant the smooch of death on its anointed ones. So far, UNO has a firm slate of six: Ping Lacson, Villar, Escudero, Alan Peter Cayetano, Pangilinan and Loren Legarda. The reformist block so far consists of Ralph Recto, Ed Angara, Noynoy Aquino and Sonia Roco, as well as the three common to both slates. That makes 10. That leaves room, at the very least, for other candidates — and, I must say, the names being floated are promising.

And let me say this, too: UNO deserves credit for resisting the temptation to trot out the living but politically dead, like Kit Tatad or Ernesto Maceda. If circumstances have forced Gomez, Oreta and Sotto into the arms of the administration, it speaks well of those they’ve decided to leave behind. An Angara-Lacson reconciliation, or at least mutual toleration, boggles the mind less than the sight of Zubiri and Mike Defensor stumping together with Oreta and Sotto.

All I know is this: Speaking for the Lakas-CMD party, the Speaker has said it will be more of the usual when it comes to Charter change (on their terms, in pursuit of their own agenda) after the elections. The President, as head of Kampi party, and its chief operator, Interior Secretary Ronaldo Puno, have shown in Iloilo that they will do anything to eliminate anyone who opposes them. Inadvertently over state radio, Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita revealed they would pull out all stops to keep control of the House, which is all they really care about. Which is why they’ll embrace anyone, while everyone else is making an effort to be more discerning.

Who would’ve guessed?

Today’s entry will be brief.

The scuttlebutt today is that Tessie Aquino-Oreta and Tito Sotto who’ve moved to the administration-allied Nationalist People’s Coalition, are poised to join the ranks of the administration’s senate slate. The next recruit just might be actor Richard Gomez. JB Baylon has an interesting column, incidentally, on what the public thinks might make for an effective administration slate.

Take a look at Jove Francisco’s report on how the administration tried some hard-sell to try to foster the impression it’s in cahoots with those forming an alternative slate.

Then ponder Manuel Buencamino’s argument that determining non-administration senate slates should bear a primordial priority in mind: Hitler first, Stalin later.

My Arab News column for this week is Edsa Dos: The Defining Issue.

The Inquirer editorial comments on the administration being found wanting in comparison to the South Koreans.

Technorati Tags: elections, philippines, politics, president, Senate

A veteran’s association

The discussion on the so-called “third force” is getting more intricate by the day.  Alex Magno loves it:

The fact that it is being called a “Third Force” strikes me as an admission of weakness. It concedes to the ragtag band of residual pro-Estrada politicians the position of being the primary challenger to the awesome political force being assembled by the ruling coalition.

…Pro-administration tacticians scored early by defining the forthcoming contest as yet another round in the never-ending political melodrama between former president Joseph Estrada and the incumbent Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. The latter has won every previous round: the 2001 turnover, the Supreme Court cases establishing the constitutionality of what had happened, the so-called Edsa Tres incident, the electoral contest with Estrada proxy Fernando Poe Jr., the two preceding senatorial contests and the two impeachment efforts.

Jurassic Emil Jurado (who, this late in life, doesn’t seem to know the difference between a bisexual and a homosexual but hates them both obviously anyway) loves it, too, and says why not join the dark side?

A third force lacks grassroots machinery and funding, something that is enjoyed only by the administration. The opposition does not like it either, because it splits the votes. People find them neither here nor there.

I’m not sure if proponents of the third force can take unsolicited advice from somebody who has covered elections since 1953. But I say they should be pragmatic enough to understand that in elections, you are either for or against—no straddling the fence, and no riding on two bancas at the same time. Only the badings do it.

Lito Banayo is furious and minces no words:

They have been cajoled by Malacañang’s spinmasters (and these are diabolically good, accept that reality) into framing these mid-term elections as a proxy war between the spunky but charismatically-dimunitive Gloria, and the imprisoned, though beloved by the lumpen Joseph Estrada… They have fallen for the palace trap simply because they could not transcend their dislike of Erap and simply because they are unwilling to accept the “displeasure” of his political company, because to do so would imply that they were wrong in Edsa Dos. And even now when lines have to be drawn, not in terms of Gloria versus Erap, but in terms of the People of the Philippines versus Gloria Macapagal Arroyo… they would deny the people a clear choice…

May I remind these wet dreamers that Erap is not running. Gloria is not running. People are asked to select twelve names to vote for senator. And even if all twelve opposition candidates sit in the Senate, Erap will not be freed by these senators. Besides, they need not vote for all twelve, if they do not like some of them. You don’t like JV Ejercito? Then don’t vote for him; no one is forcing you. Let Erap’s masa carry him on their shoulders. Yours are too flabby and too lampa anyway. So what is all this parallel organization for?

…The political wet dreamers must realize that all Malacañang needs is a credible reason to cheat the opposition of victory in a clearly opposition year. And by carving up a Third Force, they are actually giving GMA and her Comelec operators the “legal” justification to manufacture the results they want… Who knows, they may even get Prospero Pichay to win! And if Pichay can be made to win, why not Chavit?

Thank God he’s back to blogging on the political scene: to help sort things out: Jove Francisco reports,

You see, reliable sources from the very groups that are meeting to explore the third force option, are now saying that their efforts have turned into something “close to the original aim —but different, too”.

That the meetings are now in the “make or break” status and that as of this stage the ticket being formed is turning out to be a “unity ticket”.

…So now the aim is to place personalities in one slate despite their different political affiliations. Partially gone is the original aim to combine senatoriables who can’t stand Gloria, and can’t stand Erap…

…But names are already floating around.

,,,Study the names and determine: will it be a slate “good for the admin” or a slate “good for the oppo”? Using your political quotient (like party affiliations, past relationships, past issues etc), do we share the same conclusions? Who will eventually benefit from this slate?

Jove’s naughty question, which side is favored by such a force, is answered by Inquirer cobbling together pundit’s views: and the consensus remains a “third force” benefits the Palace most.

The Inquirer also points out what Jove reports: a “third force” more a veteran’s association than anything else; as another paper puts it, it’s a common ticket for re-electionists.The list Senator Ralph Recto’s put forward is a mixed bag (hat tip to The Lonely Vampire Chronicles): but as Philippine Politics 04 points out, Joker Arroyo and Luisa Ejercito are out of the race; that means a force of eight is now a force of six, if the force is only a force of veterans; if something else, then it’s almost indistinguishable from what the opposition has been discussing, anyway.

While Billy Esposo seems to suggest the “third force” is, really,  a Nacionalista Party-Liberal Party Alliance, in other words, an old-fashioned coalition, doesn’t even seem to be holding. What does the emphasis on the veteran nature of the force, or even the evolution of its reason for being, say about what was originally touted as its reason for being -to provide an alternative? Randy David says running for elected office isn’t for him; there goes one iron-clad reason to consider a third force as an alternative.

And what does Edgardo Angara’s continuing woes among former colleagues indicate? Oreta and Sotto have abandoned Angara and embraced Eduardo Cojuangco’s NPC, a party firmly in the administration camp despite the renegade status of members like Chiz Escudero.

Like I’ve said: the timing is all wrong. And timing can be everything in politics. Skepticism, not anticipation, is being built; make a list, announce it, then let the people judge. But so far all that’s been accomplished is to take the wind out of the sails of the opposition, give a second wind to the three-man-strong administration senate slate (only Zubiri, Defensor and Manzano have really confirmed), and raised justifiable questions about the political wisdom and political sense of those who want to identify themselves as “none of the above.” And what’s the difference? John Marzan (see link to his blog above) puts the opposition slate as follows:

1) Lacson
2) Villar*
3) Escudero*
4) Cayetano
5) Pangilinan*
6) Legarda

And the “third force” as follows:

1) Recto
2) Pangilinan*
3) Villar*
4) Angara
5) Escudero*
6) Roco

*Are in both lists, as was Loi Ejercito (who isn’t running, as Joker Arroyo isn’t running, either, and he would have been the seventh on the “third force” list). So even combining the two, you have:

1) Lacson
2) Villar
3) Escudero
4) Cayetano
5) Pangilinan
6) Legarda
7) Recto Roco
9) Angara

which still leaves three slots open! For the administration’s Defensor, Zubiri, and Manzano, who I believe might have a plausible chance of winning.

In the punditocracy, the Business Mirror editorial focuses on Cory Aquino’s advocacy of microfinance.

Writing in the Mindanao Current, Ed Montalvan points out the politically pragmatic reasons why the administration is interested in suspending the governor of Iloilo. As Iloilo@UpClose wonders, does the Palace think Ilonggos are stupid? Or perhaps only Bel Cunanan does? Last night I was with a friend who is pro-Arroyo, whose family is pro-Arroyo, but who are Ilonggos, and they were dismayed by the handling of the suspension of their governor.

Newsbreak and the Star say Solicitor-General Nachura is a shoo-in for the vacancy in the Supreme Court.

In the blogosphere, Newsbreak has an article on Blogging about the elections (hat tip to Philippine Eleksyon 2007).

Pseudonymity points to an Inquirer.net article on how bloggers are rallying around beleaguered Malaysian fellow bloggers.

Basang Panaginip has a manifesto on atheism.

Technorati Tags: Blogging, elections, media, philippines, politics, Senate

The best defense is a political offensive

Talk in political circles is that the various candidates are salivating over purchasing the rights to what could be The Mother of All Jingles. If they can be bought, the use of it promises a massive advantage in the senatorial race.

Last Saturday, the Daily Tribune published an intriguing story on a closed-door strategy session held at the Palace. Apparently, the meeting was accidentally broadcast over the government radio station!

[Ermita's] orders… to all public information officers (PIO) …. was accidentally aired over government’s radio station dzRB yesterday.

“The image of the President is at stake in these elections,” Ermita told the PIOs… attending the close-door workshop organized by the Philippine Information Agency (PIA)…

Ermita intimated that no expense would be spared for this massive election propaganda, saying Malacañang is ready to tap and hire well-known commercial directors to produce television ads that would create a strong impact on the public, and with reports similar to the media hype created by the boxing matches of Filipino boxer Manny Pacquiao as well as the TV programs, Pinoy Big Brother and Philippine Idol.

“We need to be more aggressive and more proactive. We need to manage media, and not the other way around. And we need to dig deep into our creative spirits and be resourceful enough to get the right message through and across. Do we need a media director for each project, much like a director of a movie or a musical concert to get people’s attention? You tell us after this day is over,” Ermita said.

The Palace aide also admitted at the workshop that the public response to the “achievements of President Arroyo” has been “lukewarm” and “negative,” adding that the public has reacted negatively to these “achievements.”

“Government manages only a few applauses here and there; most of the time, the halls are silent. As public information officers, it will be your responsibility to get our people to heartily applaud those messages. Instead of applause, we get survey results that speak of people’s dissatisfaction toward government, all because of media’s penchant for what sells – politicking, political personalities and political controversies,” Ermita stressed.

Ermita said that the fate of the administration candidates, especially in the Senate slot depends on how the public perceives the governance and leadership of Mrs. Arroyo and that it is necessary to step-up public ‘awareness on the achievements of the administration.

“The fate of these officials in May, depends on how well the people perceive governance. How well the people see the President. The image of the President is at stake here. While the President is not seeking elections or reelection because this is a midterm election, perhaps it will not be difficult for the people to accept the results of the elections since this will be based on the performance of the President, the performance of her government,” Ermita said.

Ermita told the PIOs that the Palace aims for an 8-4 slot in the Senate…

On the part of the Cabinet, Ermita said Cabinet officials must hold regular press conferences and even visit universities and colleges…

“All Cabinet members and their respective agencies are to actively lead in stepping up the dissemination to the citizenry of the effective socio-economic reforms, enhanced pro-poor programs and evident economic gains, specifically those brought about under the Medium-Term Development Plan and the 10-Point Legacy Agenda. All Cabinet members, together with their officials, should continue to hold press conferences to ensure the proper dissemination of the government’s programs, efforts and achievements,” he said.

“All Cabinet members are also enjoined to visit State universities and colleges to inform the students, faculty, and staff of the economic gains primarily brought about by the socio-economic reforms initiated by the government, and to encourage their active participation in meeting the socio-economic targets,” Ermita added.

Comprehensive! Over the weekend I had a chance to exchange scuttlebutt with well-informed people on the other side of the political fence. Their reading is that the President has given up on the Senate and is devoting her energies to building a solid majority in the House. The strategy, then, is to take the fight to every district with a pro-impeachment congressman, and to defeat such congressmen. If possible, while eliminating anyone who dared oppose her, she will also try to build a new majority composed of Kampi congressmen. The only difficulty is that the President is unpopular in Luzon, to the extent that even local races are being affected.

However, while the Visayas and Mindanao don’t equal Luzon in terms of congressional seats and voters, they can knock out opposition leaders there. Suspend first and ask -or face- questions later. The various groupings of local officials, though, will be hard-put to prove if they have the clout to deliver national votes from congressman upwards to the President.

The weekend also saw rumors of the President being booed during an Il Divo concert. Reyna Elena and An OFW in Hong Kong cover the incident pretty thoroughly. The best I’ve been able to ascertain is one source, whose mother was at the concert, and who said there was some when it was announced the concert would start late, but “whether,” as my source put it, “it was due to the delay of the concert or dislike of [the President] is hard to ascertain.” A journalist who was there said there was no booing: “People muttered, but no booing.”

MindaNews reports that Davao City mayor Duterte is being considered for the position of Secretary of National Defense. Manila Times lists possible candidates for the vacancy in the Supreme Court. One vacancy the President’s in no hurry to fill: the Comelec.

A million Filipinos due to leave this year, but not for Nigeria.

Pura Santillan-Castrense passes away; a distinguished Filipina.

My column for today is, Half a People Power (see ExpectoRant’s reaction).

Politically, Amando Doronila says the administration made a big mistake by throwing its weight around in Iloilo. This is the sort of political behavior that negates news of the stockmarket booming.

Ducky Paredes makes a good point: the term “third force” is a throwback to a different era. But even he points out the instinct of most voters is to think in pro- and con- terms. I think news items that say a “third force” is well, gathering force (endorsed, for example, by today’s Inquirer editorial), shouldn’t be ignored, but I do think everyone for it should shut up about it, until the actual slate can be announced. The idea will only be as good as the composition of an alternative slate.

Dan Mariano says despite public opinion being hostile to the administration (at least in vote-rich Luzon, from what I hear), the opposition is in a Catch-22 situation:

The general consensus seems to be that the May polls will be bloody. If our worst fears come to pass, out the window will go whatever investor confidence the country has generated thus far.

Similarly in peril are the policies of fiscal restraint, which have led to a reduction in the budgetary deficit. Suspicious eyes are now cast on the administration of President Arroyo whose ability to complete her term would depend on the outcome of the congressional elections.

If the opposition manages to gain enough seats in the House of Representatives, expect it to launch a third bid to impeach her. All it needs are 79 congressmen to endorse the impeachment complaint, and automatically the complaint goes to the Senate. If the Senate retains its oppositionist bent, there is a good chance that an impeachment trial would end in a conviction.

The temptation, therefore, is great for the ruling coalition to pull out all the stops as it tries to hold on to the House and keep the contrarian senators at bay. Such an effort will require money, lots of money, which observers fear would be sourced from state coffers—in the process, bloating the budgetary deficit. Back to square one.

The opposition, on the other hand, has to dig deep into its depleted pockets so the bulk of its war chest will have to come from big businessmen.

Here the opposition faces a quandary. Big businessmen have been the main beneficiaries of the economic turnaround. Would they be willing to risk it all by helping the President’s foes gain control of both congressional chambers?

An interesting article from an educational professional: Juan Miguel Luz on the “English first” policy.

In the blogosphere, Screenshots has some kind words for Filipino bloggers; he also points to Walk With Us, a blog that discusses the Malaysian’s blogosphere’s wrestling with cases filed against bloggers in that country.

Technorati Tags: Blogging, elections, journalism, media, philippines, politics, president, Senate

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