Plans E and F

Call it Plan B v.2.0: House readies constituent assembly signed by 194 lawmakers. the beauty of it is, it also absorbs Plan C (having to push through with elections). The Pichay B v. 2.0+C v. 1.5 would accomplish the following: achieve the proposal of amendments, submit it to a plebiscite timed to coincide with local elections (after, possibly, a brief postponement of the polls from May to November), permit the local elections to distract the plebiscite vote, and, nullify the way the local-national elections would be fought (to elect an impeachment Congress).

After all, after the election-plebiscite, the 14th Congress would then become the new National Parliament, making impeachment not only more difficult, but isolating both impeachment-minded congressmen (focused on the 1/3 vote presently required) and impeachment-minded senators (focused on the 2/3 majority required to convict) since under parliament, impeachment would require 3/4 which could be prevented either by winning enough House seats or simply bribing the new parliament into maintaining more than 1/4 opposed to impeachment.

It’s brilliant and possibly, foolproof.

But in case that’s too clever, plan D (electing an administration-controlled constitutional convention) gets a fresh twist, too: Law calling for Charter Convention proposed. An appointed, not elected, Constitutional Convention (call it Plan D v. 1.5). The law could be easily passed. And then the Palace could argue: what, One Voice, etc., you’re against even a convention? Why? You want to run for delegate? And it just might work with the public.

News even from the official propaganda organs that seemingly portray dissent within the ranks of the faithful -like this one- are causing them to be going great guns over at Malaya: and I must say, I tend to agree with what they say they’ve pieced together.  Love-hate relationship of GMA, JDV unfolds, one story says, with the flipside being Mike’s boys sharpen knives against Joe. Stories such as Malaya’s Palace: There was no flip-flop on initiative or the Inquirer’s Cabinet men in row over Charter change loss agree to truce are merely reports on clumsy damage-control, then.

The political momentum within the administration seems to be shifting from where it’s been since July last year -with Lakas-CMD and its Ramos vs. de Venecia factions- to the President’s pet party, Kampi, headed by the Secretary of the Interior Ronaldo Puno, and composed of others like Defensor. The fighting over Defense Secretary Nonong Cruz is not about “the firm”, to my mind, as it is about how everyone will need the Armed Forces sooner or later, and the general impression that Cruz is intent on not using the AFP for cheating (at least that’s the impression I get both from his public statements, and what those who claim to be in the know on DND affairs tell me). The question of whether the law firm of Cruz has also outmaneuvered the Lakas-CMD camp and sabotaged Singaw, which was aspiring to be a new power center is secondary.

In the punditocracy, the columns of Connie Veneracion and Alex Magno are delightfully congruent today. the antidote to their columns is Tony Abaya’s.

John Mangun is bullish on the stock market. But Newsbreak reports on gin packed in sachets. This reminds me again: is the economy really doing well? Again, last night, a friend from the motorcycle industry says sales are down 30% this year, and no one can figure out why.This is an efficient and potentially, grow-grow-grow industry, and yet it’s best minds are stumped as to why they seem to have hit a brick wall.  Is there a dangerous disjoint in our economy no one wants to, or can, see?

Vanity Fair has a probing feature on Carl Rove, enduring political genius or dinosaur?

Technorati Tags: constitution, impeachment, Marcos, media, military, people’s initiative, philippines, politics, president

Plans C and D

Let’s hope the Supertyphoon doesn’t do as much damage as expected.

More news on Plan A, and on Plan B. What’s Plan C? Elections as scheduled. What’s Plan D? Adding elections for a constitutional convention, which could then produce a charter before the 14th Congress can get its act together and mount a 3rd impeachment.

News of divisions within the President’s cabinet, and outright hostility toward Defense Secretary Avelino Cruz, Jr. (a former law partner of Justice Carpio) may just be sour graping and an attempt to find a scapegoat on the part of Palace lieutenants  (as Max Soliven seems to think).

Update: see the Malaya cover story on how it thinks the President herself pulled the plug.

Still, the Inquirer editorial reacts to criticisms of the Supreme Court and says three dangerous ideas are being floated:

These misinterpretations—that the high court’s deliberative process is ultimately political, that last week’s vote was a defining exercise in patriotism, that the Supreme Court oversteps its constitutional boundaries when it takes judicial cognizance of plain reality—all undermine the high court’s place in our democratic project. Of the three, politicization is the worst offender, because it subverts the judiciary’s very nature—not in one swoop, but slowly, in small doses of political poison.

Comelec AKO thinks the Chief Justice is simply out to get elected. Amando Doronila takes up the cudgels for the justices, too. J.A. de la Cruz says, don’t pin the so-called “people’s initiative” woes on “the firm.”
Are the Democrats capable of snatching defeat from a widely-assumed victory? The Guardian wonders. Visit electoral-vote.com for daily updates on the congressional race in the USA.
Features: Newsbreak on just how disappointing the Ombudsman is (very). Susan A. de Guzman on a Fabian de la Rosa exhibit at the Jorge Vargas Museum. Ruby Towers earthquake remembered.

My column for today is Memorial landscape. Also,  Billy Esposo waxes nostalgic for some of the great departed.

The Manila Times editorial says historians should be sorting out lingering unresolved questions in Philippine history.

Seah Chiang Neeh on a growing danger to Singapore’s ruling party due to its leadership being divorced from the everyday experience of the public.
Here’s one of the most curious editorials I’ve ever read: the Japan Times on Japanese who end up disappointed with Paris.

More views on the Supreme Court’s decision from Atty-at-work and Red’s Herring, who delves into the hybrid nature of the Philippine legal system. In Philippine Commentary, he delves into survey methods.

The Ignatian Perspective suggests how OFW’s can help the motherland.

Blogs react to The Explainer on ANC: in Ako si PAENG, and in Blog@AWB Holdings.

The Filipino Mind reproduces Roland Simbulan’s prescription for ensuring the University of the Philippines resists the globalization bandwagon.

Technorati Tags: Blogging, constitution, history, people’s initiative, philippines, politics, president, Washington DC

Pangasinan Express

Now that the court’s decided, the Inquirer and Newsbreak focus on the inside story on the goings-on among the Supremes leading up to their vote. The Inquirer claims the chief justice kept his cards close to his chest; Newsbreak asserts the Palace knew how he’d vote weeks in advance. Justice Ynares-Santiago was the other justice of interest.

The Palace tells her faithful villagers to keep their torches burning and pitchforks waving.

Plan A remains on the table.

Plan B: opposition, of course, claims victory before battle begins. The Manila Times and the Business Mirror detail the “Pangasinan Express” and it’s preparations to go full steam ahead.

Plan C is a go, Manila Standard-Today dutifuly reports.

In other news: Metro Manila faces a water shortage. The United States cancels plans to set up a testing center for nurses in the Philippines -but might change its mind on two conditions. The first: better peace and order. The second: settle the nursing test leak controversy once and for all. The sweetener: the US could set up a testing system.

Overseas, the Guardian reports that as America prepares for historic mid-term elections and the implementation of reforms to prevent the 2000 electoral controversy in Florida, efforts at poll automation and modernization in as many as 10 US states may be headed for disaster. The Nation of Thailand says it now has the inside story on the Thai coup.

In the punditocracy, the Inquirer editorial dissects the Supreme Court’s decision and says it drew a line in the sand; while the Business Mirror editorial says it’s time to move on.

Fr. Joaquin Bernas SJ suggests the legions of Singaw were sloppy and deceitful in their lawyering and Raul Pangalanan maintains there was outright fraud. Rene Saguisag says that when a case is carried, then it’s carried and so there was no close call at all. He coins a phrase I love: the Speaker “wants to be Prime Rib or something.” Tee hee!

Ting Tiongco remembers what martial law was like.

Overseas, Dahlia Lithwick explains why a recent New Jersey court decision on gay marriage isn’t a case of judicial activism. Michael Wright on what the Thai coup was all about.

In the blogosphere, Jove Francisco says he had to look up the meaning of sangfroid because of a comment I made on his blog entry for yesterday. He reports that there’s an ongoing debate over whether the President brushed off the bad news of a Supreme Court defeat, or whether she took it like a blow to the solar plexus. Some Palace officials are said to be in a state of shock -but the carnival continues and the fight goes on. Local officials are part of the President’s entourage to China (preplanned, surely, when victory was considered inevitable) and the President gets a couple of days off to eat dimsum and consult her bankers in Hong Kong.

Bloggers  such as In a Jaded World continue looking at the Supreme Court decision,  or reacting to it, such as From the Barrel of My Pen (a Fil-Am), Daily Musings and Philippine Politics 04 (who are both delighted), Bunker Chronicles (irritated over Lambino’s continued defiance).

A Nagueño in the Blogosphere points out Wikipedia’s made it to a Supreme Court decision.

And please don’t forget to keep tabs on The Explainer on ANC blog.

Technorati Tags: constitution, One Voice, people’s initiative, philippines, politics, president, Thailand, Washington DC

Wars are not won by evacuations

Near the end of Mao Zedong’s life, when news of one particularly close call with a lung infection reached Chou Enlai, he soiled his pants. He had to change into new pants before he could rush to the Great Helmsman’s bedside to see if he would live or die.

I think many of us felt the same way yesterday (like bringing a baby into this world), particularly as, in what may have been a last-minute effort to turn the tide through rumor-mongering, news began to swirl that the government would win in the Supreme Court.

Finally, the first news came out and it was very good news; and then it was official -and gladdening! Banketa Republique among others, could suddenly look forward to a happy birthday. Naturally the folks at the Black and White Movement and One Voice were frabjous. Other groups banged pots and pans with joy.

As the Inquirer puts it, High court: Charter change bid a fraud

Still, as Fr. Joaquin Bernas, SJ puts it, Carpio’s opening paragraph says it all.

The decision of the Supreme Court, G.R. 174153 is available on line. It is strongly -and clearly- written. You can read the concurring opinion of the Chief Justice, as well as Sandoval-Gutierrez, and the dissenting opinions of justices, starting with Reynato Puno, then Ynares-Santiago,  Tinga,  Nazario and Valsco

Or then again, since the Palace was quick to focus on Plan 1.v2 (appeal), the ground’s being set for a last-ditch effort to overturn the decision. One thing’s sure: Heherson Alvarez says print media proved it’s more influential than broadcast media in such debates. This means print’s going to receive more slap and tickle from the Palace.

Newsbreak has the skinny on the justice who clinched the vote for the antis in the Supreme Court, though the Manila Times has a different take on who was the clincher. In that light, this passage from the Chief Justice’s statement says it all:

Ten years, fifty years, a hundred years – or even a thousand years  –  from now, what the Court did here,  and how each justice opined and voted, will still be talked about, either in  shame or in pride. Indeed, the hand-washing of Pontius Pilate, the abomination  of Dred Scott, and the loathing of Javellana still linger and  haunt to this day.Let not this case fall into the same damnation. Rather, let  this Court be known throughout the nation and the world for its independence,  integrity, industry and intelligence.

That theirs was was an activist decision is clear; and I simply don’t understand what Bel Cunanan means when she wrote,

It makes one wonder how this country would be if the Court had even just a handful of activist jurists willing to break out of the constitutional straightjacket and more brave hearts with a little less concern for “institutional damage” and posterity, than for the nation’s future which, at the moment of decision, was truly in their hands.

Still,  just how close a call it was brought to my mind what Winston Churchill said, as his countrymen celebrated the evacuation of the British Expeditionary Force from Dunkirk: “we must be very careful not to assign to this deliverance the attributes of a victory. Wars are not won by evacuations.” They are won through invasions. And the beach heads would be in the 2007 elections.

Exactly what might have been -and what still might be, since Business Mirror reports Plan B is a go- as far as the House intentions to amend the Constitution are concerned, is detailed by Newsbreak. The business community’s still regrouping in terms of its opinions -whether those from it supportive of the Palace should continue to do so, might be helped by that article. The political camps are mobilizing for a showdown in the House.

In the punditocracy, my column for today is Lame duck. Mercifully, By Jove! (and thank God he’s back to blogging the news) reveals what I wanted to know -what it was like at the Manila Hotel as the president’s visit heralded her Supreme Court defeat. It was a time to dust-off that old Palace chestnut: oh, Madame doesn’t really care. No, really. Trust us. Would she -or we- lie to you? She may have shown sangfroid, but she changed her schedule and nursed the local executives through lunch. And other news: there’s a Plan C.

The Daily Tribune pens a thorough editorial.

Dong Puno has a nice paragraph:

It doesn’t help that one of the most basic problems of both our Senate and our House is the elementary issue of…the quorum or, put another way, absenteeism. Yup, many of our esteemed legislators, after having received the people’s mandate, evidently make it their business to be otherwise occupied when the business of the people calls.

In the blogosphere, PCIJ reports Randy David’s articulation of a checklist for Philippine democracy:

* We cannot hope to gain anything unless we can first unify our people around a clear vision and engage their energies and enthusiasm in pursuit of these goals.

* Development has to start from the development of the people, through the provision of the minimum living conditions for sustained personal growth, through quality education, and the meaningful inclusion of our people in various aspects of the national life

* With regard to the private sector, those who have more in life are called upon to help those who have been excluded and opportunity without waiting to be prompted by the government.

* Corruption is not the most important of our problems but rather an expression of our most urgent problems: mass poverty and ignorance, patronage politics, expensive elections and an underdeveloped economy.

* Our private initiatives as citizens are valuable, but the crucial terrain of socail change is still the public arena, where policies and programs are decided.

* There is no shortcut to development.

* Some of our problems require simple and straightforward solutions, but many are multi-layered and complex. Every initiative rests on certain preconditions.

* No nation can progress without first instilling national pride and love of country among its people. National pride is to nations what self-respect is to individuals, a precondition for self-improvement. We must arrest our people’s dangerous descent to demoralization, and appeal to those who have made good here and abroad, to help lift the morale, especially of our young people, in these critical times.

Philippine Commentary weighs in with an analysis of the supremes’ decision. Comelec AKO asserts the language employed by Justice Carpio was intemperate and even tasteless -certainly, he says, unnecessary.

RG Cruz reports the Speaker’s defiant.

Mga Diskurso ni Doy cautions that the Palace must have been prepared for the possibility of defeat, and has been redoubling its efforts to achieve victory in the May 2007 elections. See Mental Pornography and The Philippine Experience, and blackshama’s blog, also Diego K. Guerrero, and the bystander as well. Uniffors says Raul Lambino was “pimp-slapped.” baratillo@cubao gives a more measured response and suggests this is merely round 1 in a prolonged fight.

blurry brain takes a critical look at the Philippines-Japan free trade agreement and the mentality of some of its advocates.

The Filipino Mind visits Mexico City.

Technorati Tags: constitution, One Voice, people’s initiative, philippines, politics, president

8-7

ANC scooped everyone by reporting the Supreme Court’s reached a decision, 8-7 against the so-called “people’s initiative.”

Round 2 starts today. As news was swirling, the President arrived at the Manila Hotel to talk to the League of Municipalities of the Philippines’ convention. I wonder if they’re feeling droopy or not -perhaps girding for round 2.

It’s far from over, folks. Talk is, the Chief Justice cast the tie-breaking vote. But he wraps up his term in December. Around the time a last-ditch House-led effort would reach the Supreme Court, a new chief justice, and a new justice appointed to replace Justice Panganiban.

Technorati Tags: constitution, people’s initiative, philippines, politics, president

Last domino falling

Today the Supreme Court meets to tackle the biggest case in its post-Marcos history. The scuttlebutt is plentiful on what just might happen: see Ellen Tordesilla’s blog. Just how serious the situation is, is shown by the Inquirer’s headline for today: SC justices have made up their minds on Charter change. It seems one of the justices leaked to the paper that the court has made up its mind, that unless something derails the discussion, a decision has been written and would probably be released by the end of the day or tomorrow at the latest (Malaya in its story, suggests this is a probable outcome, too). And that the justice who talked to the paper is troubled by yesterday’s survey results. The Manila Times goes as far (even further than the Inquirer) in predicting the outcome of the decision: High Court ruling to favor initiative, it says:

A Court insider told The Times that the growing sentiment among the justices is to support the opinion of Senior Associate Justice Reynato Puno remanding to the Comelec the petition for the initiative filed by Raul Lambino, Sigaw ng Bayan convener, and Erico Aumentado, president of the Union of Local Authorities of the Philippines.

Puno had been assigned to write the opinion on the initiative petition. The 14 other justices will vote for or against his opinion.

The Court will then meet in a special en banc session on Wednesday to deliberate on Puno’s opinion. If approved, it will be adopted as the Court’s decision.

The source said all but two or three justices have not made up their mind, but that Puno’s opinion was hard to contest, because he is the Court’s senior magistrate and considered one of its brightest members.

The insider also said several of the justices were inclined to rule that the Comelec committed “grave abuse of discretion amounting to lack of jurisdiction” when it dismissed the petition.

In effect, the Court reverses the ruling of the Comelec and will require it to verify the 6.3 million signatures the petitioners submitted.

The Manila Standard-Today story is important, I believe, because it contains precisely the arguments (according to scuttlebutt, at least) that would be incorporated in a decision favorable to the government:

In particular, the justices will decide whether a 1997 injunction that the Court imposed on the Comelec involving a previous attempt to amend the Constitution should also be applied to the Sigaw ng Bayan petition.

The Comelec refused to entertain the Sigaw ng Bayan petition in August, citing the Court’s 1997 ruling.

But Comelec Chairman Benjamin Abalos said the poll body would hold a plebiscite for the proposed amendments to the Constitution if the Supreme Court ordered it.

“We have no discretion because of that [1997] injunction,” he said.

If the Court ruled in favor of Sigaw ng Bayan, the Comelec would begin verifying the certifications from local poll offices nationwide where the petitioners submitted their signatures, Abalos said.

In its petition, Sigaw ng Bayan argued that the 1997 Santiago vs Comelec case did not set a precedent for future cases.

With 6.3 million signatures of voters endorsing Charter Change, the proponents said, they had met the conditions for a people’s initiative as required by Republic Act 6735 or the Initiative and Referendum Act.

It will be interesting to compare the above, which hints at what the Palace would want to see in a decision, with whatever ends up decided by the Supreme Court. Among the scuttlebutt is that Justice Puno, as ponente, has drafted a decision saying: 1. law is sufficient; 2. Sigaw ng Bayan has locus standi (legal personality); 3. Santiago vs. Comelec decision is not stare decisis (not precedent) being a 6-7 decision.

The Philippine Star makes the interesting observation that for the powers-that-be, there is no Plan B:

Malacañang admitted the consequences of the Supreme Court turning down the petition would be “too difficult and too painful” for the Arroyo administration.

ULAP officials also shared the same view, saying it would be “now or never” for the people to realize their inherent right to directly propose amendments or revision of the basic law of the land.

The Black and White Movement, in an eloquent statement, says it is in God’s hands. As for One Voice, there’s Christian Monsod’s October 19 statement. The foremost question in many minds, of course, is whether the public will accept whatever ends up being the decision of the court.

My Arab News column for this week is Something Disturbing in the Plebiscite Demand.

The Inquirer editorial focuses on the survey concerning the Supreme Court (in a less hostile manner than Philippine Commentary, that’s for sure!)

And Manuel Buencamino has an imaginary conversation -with me!

In the blogosphere, see Riots in Hungary and Pestiside.hu for the latest in Buda -and how the people are being pests concerning their Prime Minister. But of course as the Palace propagandists tell us, the parliamentary system guarantees an end to people power. Not!

Over in David’s space, he differentiates between the two types of tear gas used by the Hungarian police. Between the Hammer and the Anvil, and Mike’s Neighborhood and ns_kumiho are quite taken by the irony of the 1956 protests turned 18-day revolution being marked with a Soviet T-34 tank and how protesters liberated it for the 2006 protests (see video). Back in September, Pestiside.hu thought comparisons between 1956 and 2006 were unfounded.

Medvekoma recalls the 1956 Revolution with pictures and reminds us, it isn’t if the revolution succeeded or failed, but that it took place that counts.  The Daily Brief and the editors at A World to Win pays homage to the Hungarian resistance as well.

A Nagueño in the Blogosphere takes off from a comment thread in this blog and shows just how young our revolutionary generation was. Caffeine Sparks also responds to a link in this blog.

Technorati Tags: constitution, history, ideas, law, media, One Voice, people power, people’s initiative, philippines, politics, president

Cheerleader festival at Manila Hotel

What the public thinks of the Supreme Court is bannered by the Inquirer and the Business Mirror: six out of ten Filipinos, according to the Social Weather Stations, are “unsure” whether the supremes will rule fairly on the so-called “people’s initiative.”  See the actual survey results here and elaborated, with background, in the PCIJ blog. Among the results:

Majority across all areas are unsure whether the Supreme Court will be fair in its decision: 69% in Metro Manila, 64% in Mindanao, 61% in the rest of Luzon, and 58% in the Visayas.

All socio-economic classes are likewise largely unsure: 60% in classes ABC, 62% in class D, and 63% in class E.

Two out of five (41%) Filipinos follow the news on the “citizen’s initiative” or signature campaign in favor of certain amendments in the Constitution, either very closely (14%) or somewhat closely (27%). About half 48% pay little attention, while 11% heard of the news only during the poll [Table 2].

Half (51%) in Metro Manila keep close track of the news on the people’s initiative, 43% in the rest of Luzon, 41% in Mindanao, and 29% in the Visayas.

More of the class ABC (47%) and class D (42%) closely follow the reports on the people’s initiative compared to class E (35%).

Residents farther from the metro tend to be unaware of the news: 21% in Visayas and 14% in Mindanao heard of it only during the survey, compared to 8% in the balance of Luzon and 2% in Metro Manila.

The Inquirer editorial speaks up for the supremes and tells everyone to shut up.

To town have streamed 1,500 members of the League of Municipalities of the Philippines who are poised to present a well-rehearsed “spontaneous manifestation” of support for Charter change (official conventions of this sort reminds me of a recent entry in A Nagueño in the Blogosphere on happy barangay chairmen and their allowances). The article on the Manila Hotel cheerleader festival also presents the latest twist in the a rehash of the Palace’s legal thinking:

Thus, Villanueva and Castillo said, the case of Santiago vs. Commission on Elections, which stated that RA 6735 was inadequate as an enabling law to cover the people’s initiative to amend the Constitution, cannot be considered a judicial doctrine because no majority vote was reached by the justices in their final voting on the issue.

Villanueva noted that in the reconsideration and final ruling on the case, the court was deadlocked, with six justices agreeing that RA 6735 was inadequate as a standard to cover a people’s initiative on constitutional amendments; six others voting otherwise; one abstaining; and two inhibiting themselves from the proceedings.

Moreover, Castillo said that Section 2, Article XVII of the Constitution, which covers the people’s initiative, is “essentially self-executory, save for the budget and other procedural election matters.’’

No implementing statute and rules and regulations are required to create the right of initiative, they added.

Speaking of legal thinking, Newsbreak summarizes the views concerning whether a distinction between amendments and revisions of the Constitution exists. The whole problem, I think, is that the administration has proposals joined at the hip, if not at the head: parliament-unicameral. Parliament is a revision, as it totally and drastically changes the entire form of government; unicameral would have been an amendment.

The Palace insists there will be elections next year, sniping from the bleachers to the contrary, but if you read the official statements closely, the stage is already being set for what Dong Puno’s laying the groundwork for in his column: at the very least, electoral postponement from May to November (personally I’ve always preferred November elections as used to be traditional, with terms to begin on Rizal Day, but anyway….) A group of public school teachers threatens to boycott participating in a plebiscite.

Newsbreak also takes a look at the President and the role of religion in her politics.

Here’s some interesting news and views on the economy. We’re running out of IT professionals: there’s a shortage of 1,300 this year, and it may go up to 2,400 by 2009. The government’s due to sell its remaining stake in Philippine Airlines.  Raul Valino discusses how Ford Philippines is actually exporting cars and wonders why other car firms aren’t following suit. John Mangun says the economy’s coming up roses. He’s particularly bullish on the stock market:

Let me say for the thousandth time, stock-market prices do not reflect an opinion on administration actions. Yes, you might see some reaction to government in very short-term movements. However, long-term money flows into investments directed by a profit motive based on dozens of other more important factors than government.

In spite of political chaos at times, high oil prices and a variety of other negatives, stock prices are up 30 percent in the last 12 months. Half of that increase is the reaction to ongoing corporate profits of listed companies. The other half is the firm belief that the trend of corporate moneymaking is going to continue well into the future.

Foreign investment in the stock market is strong and rising. That tells us that this very unpredictable and, sometimes, unreliable investment money believes there is financial, not necessarily political, stability in the Philippines. That means a stable currency, stable interest rates and stable corporate profitability.

A friend in the motorcycle industry, though, tells me sales are down for the fourth quarter in a row, nation-wide and industry-wide. It seems what’s scary for the motorcycle industry is the possibility that the market’s reached it’s limit, which doesn’t speak well of the size of our economy.

Overseas, Gwynn Dyer says there’s no longer any good exit strategy from Iraq. Former president Choi Kyu-hah of South Korea dies, having maintained a firm silence on his official actions. The Nation of Thailand says Thaksin’s scheming for a comeback. The Panama Canal is to be widened at long last.

In the blogosphere, RG Cruz recounts the President welcoming the Thai Prime Minister. The Bunker Chronicles explains his objections to the parliamentary system. An OFW in Hong Kong is outraged over the thought of cancelled elections.

The Warrior Lawyer on Pfizer’s bullying of the Philippine government; and Confessions at 7:00 PM on the Judicial and Bar Council.

A gaggle of cultural observations, beginning with Coconuter who made it to a TV show. He also penned a fragmentary essay full of astute observations, from which here are some snippets:

I said earlier that I was feeding 8 mouths (including myself) during my first month here. These were some of my Filipino relatives. Some Filipinos base their liking of you depending upon your “nakikisama” qualities or how well you get along or mix in with them. Unfortunately this can sometimes be affected by money, especially if you live with them. In my case, it was difficult for my relatives to accept that despite coming from the US, I am not rich nor am I being supported by my parents. And once I stopped providing money for my relatives, “hindi na ako marunong makisama,” or in other words I no longer knew how to get along or mix in. And so this convinced me to live off on my own…

…This leads me to the “sakit ng mga Pilipino” or the sickness of the Filipino. It happens all over the world but is quite prominent in the Philippines. I am talking about theft. Any Filipino can attest to how rampant this crime is here. I once heard a 7 year old Filipino boy chant “Ang lahi ng mga Pilipino ay magnanakaw,” or the bloodline of Filipinos are thieves. I’ve also overheard a policeman talking about killing a certain thief to end his bloodline so he cannot reproduce and pass it on. My first experience was when the house was broken into by three thieves who ate and bagged a week’s worth of my food… Even my dog, which I got to battle theft, was stolen. People will even use the faucets outside to gather jugs of water if I am gone for very long. Fortunately, now-a-days my two dogs are pretty alert and do a good job of keeping passerby’s away.

…The harsh socioeconomic circumstances has everyone looking out only for their own interests and creating two categories for individuals. An old Filipino man once told me that there are only two types of Filipinos, “ang manloloko at ang naloloko” or the ones who fool and the ones who are fooled. One could say that in any transaction there is no such thing as a fair deal; someone is always going to be better off after a trade. In the Philippines, however, (also in other parts of the world) many people are hunting to take advantage of another. Vendors try to fool me everytime I go to the “palengke” or wet market. Fortunately, I now know the fair prices for most of the goods I purchase. It seems it has become second nature to utilizing deception, the ignorance of the customer, and psychology to gain the upper hand. Ironically, that same old man talked me in to buying his over-priced dog.

….Increased liberty is also something I gained here in provincial Philippines. In the U.S., and other modernized areas you cannot escape the “tracking device” of the government, things like taxes and other bills are always on your tail, and your job eats up the majority of your life. In provincial Philippines (and perhaps other provincial areas), there is no “tracking device” and you only need to pay for your own necessities. It’s also cheaper to live in the Philippines compared in other countries, but wages are also lower in the Philippines. There also exists a lack of job opportunities. But for the lower jobs that are available, there is a work concept that is quite appealing and is commonly found in provincial Philippines. It is the “work when you need money” and “relax when you want to” concept. It is more like doing temporary contract or project-type work and is done in spurts. The pressure of a continuous job is taken away in this concept. Many others of course wish for this continuous money-job and go into the city or abroad to find that opportunity…

Peryodistang Pinay weighs in with something I sympathize with, heartily: irritation over noise pollution. ExpectoRants wonders if copper is the new gold and aluminum the new silver.  Witness Lane eloquently explains why he’s not going to be doing any writing for some time. i’m a devil in haste is rather despondent over writing critiques from friends.  Fabulous and You Know It is disillusioned with her school’s championship-winning basketball team.

And here’s a blog to add to your links: Nostalgia Manila.

Technorati Tags: Blogging, constitution, korea, Middle East, people’s initiative, philippines, politics, president, society, Thailand, war, Washington DC

Advertising a threat

Chief Justice will still party; Senators in a bad mood. Palace in a bad mood, too.

An interesting article on the efforts of the Philippine embassy in Paris, to lobby for benefits for undocumented Filipinos.

How the Marcos loot’s been looted.

The Guardian reports that Hugo Chavez has been all bark and little bite:

Since Mr Chávez announced a land revolution, headlines have focused on expropriations and sporadic violence which reportedly has claimed dozens of lives. A question seldom asked is whether the reforms are widespread and working.

Success would enhance claims that this corner of Latin America is forging a radical and successful alternative to neoliberalism. Failure would bolster sceptics who say chavismo is blowing oil wealth on old-style leftwing populism.

There is no conclusive answer for the simple reason that the reforms have not started in earnest.

In much of the country nothing has happened: no expropriations, no cooperatives, no bold experiments. Since a 2001 land reform act 200,000 families, about a million people, have been settled on to 2.5m hectares, according to the government, with part of a ranch owned by the British firm Vestey among property seized.

Given a colonial legacy which left nearly 5% of landowners owning 80% of the land, that redistribution is modest – and a relief for Fedenaga, the ranchers’ federation. “The revolution doesn’t exist. It’s all slogans,” said its leader, Genaro Mendez, beaming.

In the punditocracy, my column for today is Advertising a threat, which tries to explains the real motivations behind charter change -and the real reason behind all those government ads in recent weeks. Rita Linda V. Jimeno confirms that mobilization plans for proponents of the so-called “people’s initiative” are afoot.

Jojo Robles points out our population data is six years old and millions of Filipinos don’t realize they should be registering to vote.

Bong Austero on the difficulty of being honest.

Niall Ferguson on the decline of the American century. Read History Unfolding who argues Americans are now faced, in Iraq, with a dilemma similar to the Germans in 1917: they were stymied in the trenches and so gambled on unrestricted submarine warfare. Which hastened American intervention and Germany’s defeat.

Which country is the best colonizer? from Slate.

In the blogosphere: RG Cruz with the latest skinny on Bolante. More from the PCIJ. As for Philippine Commentary, he thinks the sand’s run out for a plebiscite.

Inkblots 2006 was recently held at UST. Reactions from Miss Selfridge (a thorough overview)  and random thoughts (with her views on column-writing, which was the talk I gave). Pictures of day one, day two, and day three from welcome to my life. More from my own little space.

Ang Pinoy Nga Naman is disgusted over more people caring about Makati rather than Naga’s mayor. Confessions at 7:00 AM says the Constitution was designed to be amended a certain way, and revised in another, so live with it. Blurry Brain believes a Senate review of trade agreements is a last ditch effort and what would be better, is to make the process behind such negotiations more transparent.

notes from the peanut gallery plugs what should be a meaty PEN conference on November 25.
Asingianan Journal looks at the Colorum revolt of the early 1930s.

Banketa Republique liked The Banquet. I found it too stylized but what bugged me most is that I have a nagging feeling it made use of another story -but I can’t for the life of me remember which one.

The CAt on the wrestler Batista and baby Pyro’s dream.

Susan Ople plays a guessing game. Everyone’s enjoying the Jollibee scandal. It jolted stepping on poop out of his doldrums.

Technorati Tags: constitution, Marcos, people’s initiative, philippines, politics, president

Binay gets a breather

Toots Ople and I arrived at Makati City Hall yesterday late in the afternoon, when news of the Court of Appeals TRO had already broken. So it was pretty jolly in the vicinity except for the area around the old city hall, where the Palace-appointed New Order was supposed to have set up shop, and where many lost-looking military people were standing around scratching their heads and texting.

We alighted in a sidestreet and made our way through the kind of courtyard in front of the new city hall, jostling through boiled peanut vendors fish ball vendors and milling crowds of delegation, some standing, some seated, around a stage, from which was blaring “Handog ng Pilipino sa Mundo.” A barker was calling the roll of the barangay delegations:

Barker: “East Rembo!”
Left corner: “Hoorah!!”
Barker: “West Rembo!”
Right corner leaps to its feet: “Yippee!”
Barker: “Palanan!”
Sizeable group stands up and roars: “Yihee!”
Barker: “Poblacion!”
A huddled group waves its arms: “Yehey!”
Barker: “Forbes Park!”
-silence, and then giggling from the huddled masses.
Barker: “Tejeros!”
Right corner: “Hoorah-yippee-yahoo-yehey-yihee!”

Hordes of energetic senior citizens circulated, apparently braced to fight for free dentures, movie passes and birthday cakes to the death (democracy hath no fury like a constituent defending his entitlements). Massed lines of traffic aides in yellow were in formation at the entrance, but people were going in and out of the city hall freely.

Inside (and it was my first time to visit the Makati City Hall) the relentlessly-marbled first floor, the windows of various offices were open and there were people patiently sitting waiting for whatever-it-was-they-were-there-for to be attended to. We were directed to the elevators and finally rode one up to the 21st floor, where people milled about or clustered in corners depending on their political affiliations. Various barangay delegations would march in and out to demonstrate their loyalty to the mayor, who was seated in one of the smaller board rooms.

We dutifully shuffled in and said hello to Binay, who was on his cellphone but would cup the receiver to acknowledge his visitors. After a few minutes there was a minor huddle and then Binay disappeared into his office, apparently to take a look at the TRO.

“Si Gloria, si Gloria!” the crowd suddenly murmured. It turned out to be Gloria Diaz.

Newsbreak carries a report on the TRO, and pictures of the celebrations later that evening. Borrowing a phrase you first saw here, folks, Amando Dorinilla says the Palace is engaging in brinkmanship. Ellen Tordesillas thinks the Palace decided to defuse an explosive situation. It could have gone out of control, as a deadline for action today loomed. It could afford to give the opposition a temporary sense of victory -without, however, proving things either way.

Is the Palace merely trying to save face? It remains defiant it seems. Binay’s people expect more attempts through other means (Sandiganbayan or even the Ombudsman) to remove their mayor.

Meanwhile, more moving of the chess pieces by the Queen. A Binay aide told me the most nerve-wracking moments were early in the standoff and yesterday morning. Early on, they were virtually defenseless in city hall; yesterday morning, they were also unsure if people would stand up to a military assault on city hall. Perhaps their opponents sensed, too, that they’d moved too slowly and the besieged mayor had managed to turn public opinion and the political momentum against them.

Overseas, the Guardian reports that even the Bush administration’s admitted, for the first time, that it’s facing a Vietnam-like scenario in Iraq:

The admission from President Bush that the US may have arrived at a turning point in this war – the Tet offensive led to a massive loss of confidence in the American presence in Vietnam – comes during one of the deadliest months for US forces since the invasion.

Yesterday the number of US troops killed since October 1 rose to 73, deepening the sense that America is trapped in an unwinnable situation and further damaging Republican chances in midterm elections that are less than three weeks away.

No surprise then that the Republican Right and its fellow travellers are using the “vote Republican or Dubya will be impeached by Communists!” argument to hold the base together.

In the punditocracy, the Inquirer editorial delves into the pressure being applied by the Palace on the Supreme Court.

Dr. Rene Azurin of One Voice pens a warning to those who’d willfully ignore history.

Max Soliven declares war on Mark Jimenez.

In the blogosphere, people weigh in pro and con regarding Binay. In the good riddance corner are Unsent Postcards and joeydaninja, while in the it’s persecution corner are The Write Stuff, and Mental Pornography  and El Bisyador and Manila Boy and My Sanctuary;  a Makati City resident, shh…. the mind is talking… says they didn’t notice much (and explains why they like their mayor):

well, bilang isang mamamayan ng dakilang lungsod *ehem* ng Makati, masasabi kong maganda naman ang pamumuno ni Binay… nararamdaman naman namin na bumabalik sa amin ang binabayaran naming buwis… hindi literal na bumalik sa amin ang perang binayad ng mga magulang ko, bagkus, sa mga serbisyo at mga proyekto ni Binay para sa mga taga-Makati (o mga Makakati… ehehe)… kasi hanggang sa pagsilang, unang picture ng baby saka ng nanay pagkapanganak, health service tulad ng Yellow Card at diskwento sa gamot sa mga Senior Citizen at iba pa, hanggang sa mga cakes para sa matatanda, pati sa kabaong ng namatay at bulaklak, sagot ng pamahalaan ng Makati… madami pang mga pa-eklat na proyekto na talagang kapakipakinabang… masasabi kong alam ni Binay ang “kiliti” ng masa… kaya hindi ako magtataka kung patuloy pa rin siyang iboboto ng mga tao dito…

A Texas showdown is what it is, Pala-isip says. An OFW in Hong Kong takes a look at the brouhaha over Binay’s wearing a military jacket, something lilac republic also comments on. Philippine Commentary had lawyer Alan Paguia as a guest blogger and that got reactions, too from Buddy Blogs and Upoytaoism. Also, Confessions from the Edge says the Department of the Interior is courting contempt.
A pox on everyone’s houses, courtesy of Alternation101: he says everybody, without exception, is guilty of something-or-other sooner-or-later. earl_johnm paints his views on Philippine television in equally bold strokes.

Technorati Tags: constitution, media, military, One Voice, people’s initiative, philippines, politics, president, war, Washington DC

Having the cake

Let me share a little story about Jejomar Binay from last  February 25, when I recounted this, from the Ayala Avenue march:

Yesterday was about linking arms with poor people, rich people, normally politically indifferent people and activists, people with views different from my own but who, at least, aren’t cowardly collaborators or simple-minded apologists of the current dispensation. It was about moving forward along Ayala Avenue at time inch by inch, foot by foot: seeing, every few meters, the policemen menacingly blocking our way. At one point, I was an arm’s legth away from batons being aimed at us from behind riot shields; and then cheering as the shields retreated, only to regroup. It was about feeling a particular kind of fury, at seeing ordinary policemen being given the extraordinary mission of defending Ninoy’s statue from the homage of his widow.

We’d been, as I recounted, inching along, with only four or so rows of people ahead of us. All of a sudden, the first row was confronted by riot police and the riot police began swinging their clubs. The first row staggered back and merged with the second row, even as the third row merged with the second because of its forward momentum. So those of us in the fourth row found ourselves instantly the new second row. You could feel the air being displaced by the billy clubs of the riot police, and I remember observing, rather clinically, that the police were clubbing people rhythmically: whack… then a pause as they lifted their batons… then whack… and their was a kind of rhythmical counterpoint as those in their line of beating thudded against the riot shields of the cops.

The instinct at such times is to link arms even tighter and hunch your shoulders in preparation for being struck; and then to straddle the ground to make sure you don’t topple backwards.

Then there was commotion behind us, and I looked back to see the rows behind us part as Mayor Binay came barreling forward, frantically pursued by supporters. He ducked his head, squared his shoulders, zipped through our line and the line ahead, and single-handledly charged the policemen. Just like an American football player. There was a kind of slap as his forearms collided with the riot shields, and then it was the line of policemen that staggered back -and kept staggering back until some officers jumped in to hold the policemen back. At which point the cheering began from our ranks. Then Binay met with the officers and they pulled back. When they’d regroup to try to stop us again, Binay would charge ahead, the cops would pull back, until finally he negotiated access to Ninoy’s statue.

I have rarely seen such raw, physical courage.

But what of the case against Binay? A friend under bar whose opinion I sought said it was simple: the Local Government Code is pretty inflexible on the matter. If anyone files a complaint against a local official, it’s the duty of the authorities to suspend that official. The idea being, to prevent the destruction of evidence. All the law requires is that proper procedure be applied in the filing of the complaint. It is up to the courts to look into the matter, if appealed to, to determine if there was a grave abuse of discretion involved in the suspension of the official.

The code only protects officials to the extent that there is a fixed duration for suspensions, and that the cause for one suspension can’t be recycled -to prevent an endless series of suspensions to harass an official.

So what’s wrong with the Binay suspension? Read Newsbreak’s analysis of the case -besides questions over the procedures followed, it’s unprecedented in that an entire city administration was decapitated. And since what is legal isn’t necessarily what’s right -something lawyers often forget- the many billions of reasons the action could be flawed, is spelled out in the article, too:

It appears that the Palace acted too swiftly on Binay.

Section 63 of the Code says that a preventive suspension, which should not exceed two months, may be imposed “after the issues are joined,” “when the evidence of guilt is strong,” and when the official’s stay in office may influence the witnesses or dissipate the evidence against him.

Legally, issues are considered “joined” after both parties have presented their side to a specific case. Binay and his council submitted their reply to the complaints on September 27. However, if the term is strictly defined as airing of sides and presentation of evidence, then Malacañang cut short the process—it has not conducted any hearing, which the Code requires should be conducted where Binay and the council holds office.

So why the rush?

The administration doesn’t keep it a secret that it wants to Binay out of City Hall—but not because they perceive him to be corrupt, as his critics and official audit reports have been trying to prove…

But in their consultations, President Arroyo’s political strategists have acknowledged that even if they field a former actor for a candidate, pour in so much money, and engage in special operations during the campaign and election next year (assuming one will be held), they wouldn’t be able to defeat Binay and his slate. Their assessment was that the only way to weaken Binay’s machinery is to keep his hands off the city government’s huge resources before the campaign period, which starts in the last week of March 2007.

To accomplish this, the administration has to race against time.

For one, local government units propose their budgets for the following year in October of the present year. Since 2007 is an election year, its budget that has to be studied and prepared starting this month will be open to discretionary items that could be used in campaign-related matters. Makati is the richest city in the country in terms of collection (excluding its share in the internal revenue allotment). It has reportedly been registering an average of P3 billion in surpluses annually since 2001.

For another, Section 62-c of the Code says that no probe for administrative charges should be held, and therefore no preventive suspension can be served, within 90 days before an election. Since the next local elections is scheduled for May 14, 2007, there can be no investigation or preventive suspension against Binay starting mid-February next year. The Palace therefore has to start the probe now.

If the 60-day preventive suspension expires while the OP has yet to complete its investigation, Binay is reinstated. Although his return to office doesn’t stop the investigation, the Palace’s fear of the mayor using his seat to influence witnesses and destroy evidence against him may be realized.

There you have it. As I said in my column for today, it’s about Having the cake.

Technorati Tags: philippines, politics

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