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i don’t believe so. yung mga “idealists” na kakampi ni Arroyo –sila yung most likely na magagalit, katulad nung nagalit sila nung nalaman nila ang garapalan na pagnanakaw sa boto– noong edsa dos ay nagsi-alisan o iniwanan na si GMA.

Ang natitira na lang na supporters ni arroyo ay yung mga so-called “realists”. yan ang mga taong susuporta kay arroyo kahit na alam nilang ninakaw niya ang election at may authoritarian tendencies ang corrupt pangulo nila, dahil natatakot silang mapunta sa opposition ang malacanang.

“realists”. ganyan rin ang tawag sa mga marcos loyalists dati.

ganyan rin ang polisiya ng US noong 1970’s to early 80’s sa pilipinas at mga ibang latin american countries at sa middle east.

that hostility’s being fed by estrada facing the prospect of death by lethal injection should he be convicted -or his being played with while the admin decides what, if anything, it should do.

hindi ba wala nang death penalty?

of course we can also debate if this couldn’t have all been solved by one of three things:

1. if estrada had formally resigned
2. if he’d simply left the country
3. if the public had apprehended him at the palace and lynched him
4. if he’d been swiftly tried or swiftly pardoned

but none of these things happened, so what would you have those who support him do?

para sa akin, wala na talagang kinalaman si erap sa takbo ng bansa natin after 2001 (responsibilidad ni arroyo yan) o kung anong ginawa ni arroyo at garci noong 2004.

erap’s a thing of the past. erap’s sooooo 2001. let’s not give erap any more ideas, okay? besides, i expect the courts to find him guilty, then arroyo will pardon erap. kung hindi tinanggap ni erap yung pardon, hindi na problema ni arroyo yan.

basta ma-pardon na si erap, matutuwa na ang mga supporters niya, since ibig sabihin niyan ay makakalaya na si erap. pati majority ng mga bishops sa CBCP (yung mga maka-arroyo) matutuwa rin at pupuriin nila si GMA for this “great humanitarian gesture” and act of mercy that goes a long way to heal the deep divisions within our country. i’m sure may konting aangal, pero overall, majority approves.

but in case he abandoned that fantasy, it would present a formidable threat to the admin. it can count its lucky stars estrada prefers to cling to his illusions.

personally i don’t see an end to the hostility between estrada’s constituency and the constituency clinging to the admin. that hostility’s being fed by estrada facing the prospect of death by lethal injection should he be convicted -or his being played with while the admin decides what, if anything, it should do.

i think most people are sensible enough not to want either an estrada restoration or a brand new estrada presidency. and if things were allowed to play out in an election -any election- it might finally help dislodge the cork that’s kept pressure building up. at least half the pressure, since the admin also won’t budge.

of course we can also debate if this couldn’t have all been solved by one of three things:

1. if estrada had formally resigned
2. if he’d simply left the country
3. if the public had apprehended him at the palace and lynched him
4. if he’d been swiftly tried or swiftly pardoned

but none of these things happened, so what would you have those who support him do?

since national elections for the senate began, individual senatorial contests have also been viewed as referenda on leadership questions (laurel for example) and campaigned as such; while the mid-term senate elections have become viewed as indirect referenda on the sitting administration (quirino, macapagal, marcos most notably). remember the elections of may, 2001 were fought as a referendum on edsa dos (succesfuly so, for the edsa dos camp, a repudiation began with the 2004 elections).

we assume estrada would win: and he just might, but remember he would have to win massively, too, and cheating aside, that may not be the case.

he needs to win “massively” too? as in maging senatorial topnotcher siya? sa loob ng kulungan?

oh erap will win a senate seat kung tumakbo siya, manuel. and it’s not exactly that hard to do since you only need to place in the top 12. kung nagawa ni jinggoy yan, siya pa.

i just don’t see the point of him running for the senate, that’s all.

indirect referendum on this admin? hindi ba “referendum” na rin yung 2004 presidential elections na ninakaw ni arroyo? balak raw ni JV ejercito na tumakbo sa senado, and he’ll probably win too, dahil lang sa surname niya. tapos papatakbuhin mo pa si erap.

don’t we have enough estradas in the senate already, kuya m?

what i think is pretty remote, is that in case you could run estrada for the presidency, he’d win.

i have to disagree. kung may special elections, at pinayagang magkampanya si erap sa labas ng kulungan niya, there’s a good chance that he might win. (hindi ba survey after post edsa dos survey show na mas popular pa si erap kaysa kay gma?)

but do we really want another erap presidency? I say no. enough! the fact na rego is making more sense to me shows how bizarro the idea is, mlq3.

re: estrada. my opinion stems from an observation made by quite a few others, which is the plebiscatory nature of our democracy. great politcal divisions have been addressed by means of turning particular elections into a kind of plebiscite (particularly in the 20s and 30s) where the fight was viewed as a settlement of a question. since national elections for the senate began, individual senatorial contests have also been viewed as referenda on leadership questions (laurel for example) and campaigned as such; while the mid-term senate elections have become viewed as indirect referenda on the sitting administration (quirino, macapagal, marcos most notably). remember the elections of may, 2001 were fought as a referendum on edsa dos (succesfuly so, for the edsa dos camp, a repudiation began with the 2004 elections).

so bakit pa nag edsa dos and go extra-constitutional? eh mananalo naman pala eh. sana naghintay na lang until the may 2001 elections para makuha ang majority sa senado at ma impeach ng tuluyan si erap.