Who will guard the guardians?

(Below: the Mabini Gate of the Palace barricaded with GI sheets; from Jove Francisco’s blog; this was the gate attacked most violently on May 1, 2001)

In his blog, Jove Francisco reports that ironically, the Presidential Security Group has returned to normal duty (shedding their battle fatigues), just as they have come under suspicion. Jove points out,

Next to the first family, or yeah, even way before the first family, the PSG are the people that any sitting president should trust. They will defend him or her, no matter what. The press corps knows that fact… If PGMA really doubted the loyalty of her PSG, then dalawa lang yan: extreme paranoia or may clear and present danger (with proof) silang nakuha. Either way, as I always say: it has come to this. The level of distrust has come to this.

Come to what? If not the beginning of the end, then the end of the beginning. As I said on Dong Puno live the other night, and in a previous column, I give the President five months (now actually just four months): within that period of time, either she will be on her way out, or she can look forward to finishing her term. The Inquirer headlines Palace paranoia concerning the President’s praetorian guard, while the Palace also says they’re “steadfastly loyal”. The Manila Times perceives it as a symptom of a deeper unease between the President, former President Ramos, and the USA. The Manila Standard-Today has a curious story: Lotto winners kidnap swindler who duped them.

In the punditocracy, my column for today is Remembrance of books past. The Inquirer editorial takes a cue from Edwin Lacierda’s view that the disappearance of a Department of Agriculture undersecretary (accused of funneling fertilizer funds to the President’s campaign) is a black eye for Rotary International: add to this the view of online columnist Billy Esposo, that de la Salle University’s athletics woes represents the perils of a “win at all cost” mentality, and we really do have a crisis in all our institutions, as I pointed out abroad.

Dan Mariano points out the recent conviction of terrorists was done without the benefit of an anti-terror law.

Marichu Villanueva says the Secretary of Finance is having nightmares about the VAT; Fel Maragay wonders if the law can’t be softened a bit.Today, of course, is the last day of life as we know it, or before the implementation of the VAT increases that begins tomorrow. And as for Fidel V. Ramos planning (or having planned) a coup, Patricio Diaz says it’s madness.

In the blogosphere, Newsstand is irked by the President’s not-so-subtle declaration of war on ABS-CBN, using Inquirer columnist Mon Tulfo (in the words of a colleague) as her guided torpedo: Philippine Commentary is a little more skeptical about everyone’s motives (the media included); journalist Ellen Tordesillas has been blogging for some days now (hoorah!); The Unlawyer has returned (and is no longer anonymous); PCIJ delves into the Reform Agenda of the Black & White Movement (full disclosure: I am one of the convenors of B&W); Newsboy complains that the opposition simply isn’t helping (who? what? when? where? why?); Ricky Carandang, after pointing out the problem of the country is that we have a low-trust society, delves into the reasons behind our not having trust: our dependence on servants (to which reader Manuel Buencamino cleverly replies that having servants teaches management skills, and I agree); Leon Kilat reports on an effort by young radicals to set up some Google bombs, by linking the phrase “pekeng pangulo” to the President’s website (see? that was easy). Incidentally, my favorite Communist blogger has penned an eloquent justification of why she’s a Communist:

What does this particular rallyist want? Simple.

I want a society where every family can sit together Saturday mornings and plan what they’re going to buy at the mall or the supermarket; make lists of supplies they’ll need for the coming week; or lists of the chores they have to do.

I want a society where all families have their own houses (not hovels, not boxes, not karitons) and all the kids have their own comfortable rooms each (and there’s a community playground with see-saws, swings and jungle bars).

I want a society where pictures of families sitting down to Sunday dinner or Saturday brunch are not just in the magazine ads but in the photo albums of every family – the dinners and lunches a regular event (umuusok ang malaking mangkok ng nilagang baka o sinigang na baboy. isang bandehadong puno ng chop suey. maputi at mabango ang bagong sinaing. may malaking pitsel ng dalandan juice. mga hiwa ng pakwan, melon o mangga bilang panghimagas. ).

I want a society where all Filipino households have a videoke machine or Magic Sing microphone each.

There’s nothing normal in how Philippine society currently works, in the way it’s laid out, in the statistics that come out in the papers (even in the reports manipulated by the government). It’s simply not right that the huge majority have so little, and a small minority have most of everything.

Which serves as a reminder that at least in the political sphere, there should always be ample democratic space for our Communist fellow citizens, and that we should all object when this country begins to resemble Colombia.

The blogosphere also has The Economic Nationalist saying there’s no such thing as free trade that’s good; Abe Margallo dissecting Mar Roxas’s speech; Uniffors lists 10 things you can do in a “national emergency”; Idiot Savant says there’s something wrong with how Philippine History is taught; and Stepping on Poop is pissed off with Philippine Halloween TV programming.

Overseas, Kottke.org reports a wierd phenomenon in New York City: thousands complaining of the smell of maple syrup. And Washington Note says the Fitzgerald investigation in the USA is about something the administration here at home says isn’t important: truth and accountability. Imagine that. Could it be, the administration’s wrong? Truth and accountability matter? Gosh.

Oh, by way of BuzzMachine, who points to recently defunct A Small Victory, there’s Politburo Diktat is trying to create the blog family tree.

Paranormal and historical

Since everyone is basically on vacation until around Tuesday, here’s an article I wrote for Araw Magazine some years back. It’s in keeping with the Feasts of All Saints and All Souls.

Paranormal and Historical: A quest for meaning in the North Cemetery
by Manuel L. Quezon III

AS a young boy, my father began to take me on what he called “pilgrimages.” Our first was to the Barasoain Church, where he proudly -and what would I would later discover, would be considered in a most unpolitically-correct manner- told me to look at the plaque listing the delegates to the Malolos Congress, and said, proudly, “look how many names are still familiar to us in our national life.”

The second pilgrimage would be to the Aguinaldo Mansion in Kawit, where I would climb to the very top of the tower of the House, and a grand-daughter of the General showed us around. Finally, we ended up in the garden, gazing at the white marble tomb of Aguinaldo, where we said a short prayer for the repose of his soul.

There would be other pilgrimages, but the the first pilgrimage I remember, and the pilgrimage that we always did, year after year, was the most personal pilgrimage of all: to the North Cemetery. Among my earliest memories are visiting the family plot, where my grandfather was still buried, his remains not being moved to the Quezon Memorial until 1979. From an early age, I was reminded and told of the history that surrounded us, that was part of us, and so close to us. Across from our family plot was the rotunda bearing what was then a tomb identical to my grandfather’s, in which were the remains of President Manuel Roxas.

On the way to our family plot, of course, were the tombs of the famous and the great; tombs my father would point out as worthy of veneration, and even visiting. This is how I learned about the lives of many people whom people my age no longer know about: Quintin Paredes, Sergio Osmena, Ramon Magsaysay, the boy scouts that died in an air crash on their way to a jamboree; the veterans of the Revolution; and later, shortly before my father passed away, Francis Burton Harrison, American governor-general and later, Filipino citizen.

When Araw Magazine approached me to write an article on the North Cemetery, a problem immediately came to the fore. A place I know -and in a strange way, even love- is, for most Filipinos, terra incognita. Who knows that while the Libingan ng mga Bayani is supposed to be Arlington Cemetery of the Philippines, there are more famous men and women buried in a public cemetery belonging to the City of Manila? How to turn what would otherwise be a boring tour -for much as I hate it, the fact is most Filipinos my age don’t give a damn about our history, much less the final resting place of famous personalities- into something interesting and possibly even challenging?

Enter the Spirit Questors. I suggested to the editor that we call the Spirit Questors to add, if I may use the term, a new dimension to the graves of the famous in the North Cemetery. How many people even know, I asked my editor, that Rizal is actually buried in the Rizal Monument? Not many even realize my grandfather rests in a miniature copy of Napoleon’s tomb in the Quezon Memorial. And what’s more, while every year the dwindling faithful or the families of these personages visit the tombs of the famous dead, how many ordinary citizens make their own versions of the pilgrimages my father considered it a civic duty to take me on?

And so I had the opportunity to meet the famed Spirit Questors and Tony Perez. I have read about their activities in the press, and happen to have Ruel de Vera’s two books about the Spirit Questors, and have admired Tony Perez’s writings for some time. But it was only last Saturday that I finally got to meet some Spirit Questors as a group and Tony Perez himself. It is an understatement to say I was favorably impressed with the Spirit Questors themselves and Tony Perez.I met six Spirit Questors the rainy and gloomy Saturday we finally managed to push through with the “tour”: Chi, who is 28, and has been with the group since 1998; Gary, who is 25, and a veteran, being part of the group since 1996; CJ, 21, a charming young lady who is a new addition to the group; Neel, who has been with the group since 1999 and is 23; Jaime, who at 20 was the youngest in the group but who has been part of the group since 1999; and Victor, 23, who has been a questor since 2000. And of course, Tony Perez himself, who came along to provide guidance to the group.Prior to our meeting he told me he had spent the morning among the tombs of the Thomasites.

Our first stop was the tomb of President Ramon Magsaysay, which was patterned after the original tombs of Presidents Quezon and Roxas. The Questors approached the tomb gingerly, at first, then finally gathered the courage to stand in a circle around it, their left hands resting on the tomb.

Said one: “He’s fine. He’s no longer here; he’s happy in his present state; he’s content with how his children have turned out. Sometimes he comes back to guide them.”

Said another: “I sense he was a strict disciplinarian, to his kids especially; and he had time to say goodbye to his family before he died.”

Generally all said he was at peace; though what startled me was the abrupt comment of one: “But there’s no head!”

How did that Spirit Questor know very little of the mortal remains of Magsaysay had been retrieved and interred in this tomb?

Our next stop was one not dictated by fame, but my aesthetic sense. All my life I have marveled at the beauty of a neglected tomb, with a sculpture, in marble, of a mourning angel. That day was the first time I actually went up to the tomb, located in a sad, overgrown plot. The tomb turned out to be two: of Mercedes Johnson, 1900-1917, and E.H. Johnson, 1878-1916. The tomb was sculpted by the renowned firm of Luerssen y Oriol. Over the name of Mercedes was Pi and Chi of Christian symbolism; over E.H.’s tomb, the compass and G of the Freemasons. It was at this tomb that the Spirit Questors had the most to say.

“I see a violent burial,” said one, in a whisper, “a great deal of mourning: A Filipina, standing over this tomb, angry over something that should have been given her.”

Another saw images of two men: one scheming; another profaning the tomb by urinating on it.

Still another said that one couldn’t avoid the impression that “the girl was buried alive”; another reemphasised that “there were many people at the funeral.”

Yet another Questor said that the story seemed to be that the two, probably father and daughter, were deeply attached to one another; that the daughter, who seemed to have Spanish features, was in love with a Filipino, but that there was some sort of conflict due to the girl’s coming from a Spanish family. Others said the sense of some sort of forbidden love haunted the life of the girl was strong; one saw scenes of meetings in a garden, with the family home in the distance; the daughter, it seems, may have died of grief, her father having passed on ahead, due to an accident.

Someone mentioned foul play seemed to be involved. “I sense great anger, one of them still wants vengeance.”

Another Questor wandered away from the group, staring at a tombstone near the back of the plot, and when asked why he had wandered off, he shrugged: “there was an old Filipino watching me -I had to look.”

From this tomb, which had caused such great excitement –and the most intense speculation of the day- we went on to my family’s plot.

The Questors formed a circle around the tomb of my grandmother, Aurora A. Quezon.

“She’s not very approachable,” one said.

“What do you mean,” I asked, curious.

“She’s not arrogant, but  -withdrawn, she only will speak when spoken to: She likes her peace and quiet and wonders why we’re all here.”

Another one stood back and informed the group, “She doesn’t like us talking to her in English.”

I was surprised. They shifted to Tagalog. One described her “she always held a fan in her left hand:¦ And she is at peace, but she comes back from time to time, often in the company of a young woman.”

Describe the woman, I asked.

“About thirty, with Spanish features. And curly hair.”

What about the hair, I asked again.

“Curly, even very tight curls, and a different sort of brown: Chestnut.”

I was, for the second time in less than two hours, taken aback. Outside from people who knew my grandmother’s eldest daughter, who was also killed with her in 1949, no one today knows that my eldest aunt had curly, almost kinky (in the African-American sense of the word) hair -and chestnut colored.

“She is always worried about her children, she seems to be worried about them all the time, and to keep coming back to make sure her descendants are living up to what she felt would be right.”

I stood aside, quietly, by my father’s tomb, noting all of this. How true it all sounded.

From our family’s plot we just had to take a few steps to reach the small rotonda where rests President Manuel Roxas, his widow Dona Trining Roxas, his son Senator Gerardo Roxas, and his grandson, Rep. Gerardo Roxas Jr. President Roxas’s tomb, at one time identical to Quezon’s, was renovated about ten years ago.

Again, the Questors hesitantly approached the tomb, and placed their left hands on it.

They got mostly images. Of a man sitting behind an official desk. The man handing papers to a tall, white-haired, distinguished looking American.

The first American Ambassador, Paul Voreis McNutt, perhaps, I asked myself.

Another image, of the man sitting at his desk, shoulders slumped, crushed by the problems of the nation. Yet another, of the President sweating heavily, trying to get out of his tomb -allegorical? Though one said he was no longer there but at peace. A few sensed heat, as they did at the tomb of the Johnsons -a sign of great energy, though whether positive or negative seemed hard to tell. The Questors seemed agitated. I decided we should move on.

We got into our vehicles and proceeded down the main avenue and turned left, to the shoddily repainted Mausoleum of the Veterans of the Revolution. Over the years, this, one of the oldest and most striking of the structures erected at the cemetery, has been emptied of many of its famous dead; its noble architecture marred by slipshod paintjobs over the past few years.

We proceeded in inside. The Questors were suddenly all abuzz. They were looking at the floor.

The Mausoleum is a box-like structure with a dome; beneath the dome is a patterned floor, much damaged, heavily scarred, very badly patched up with cheap cement. The Questors excitedly looked at the floor and called out to their mentor.

It seemed the structure was full of occult symbols, as was appropriate for a turn of the century structure constructed when Freemasonry was still a potent force in the country, and many of whose members had been leaders of the Revolution.

The Questors pondered the “œmagic circle.” Their mentor walked to the center of it and they all talked of a strong sense of power.

Tony Perez, standing in the middle of the circle, called me over.

“Look,” he said, softly, pointing to a small compass strapped to his wrist. “Look at the compass, and now look at the main entrance and the two other side entrances. They are oriented toward the cardinal directions.”

I was impressed.

“Now look,” he said, pointing at the dome. “You see the details at the corners of the dome, where the circle meets the square of the main structure?”

Yes, I replied.

“They are oriented at the points of the compass, too. They are triangles right? Notice how each one corresponds to a direction: North East, South East, South West…”

The Questors all agreed that this was a place built by people with a strong belief in the occult; in its rituals. They were nervous.

Someone suggested they leave, they were not welcome; one added it was obvious that those who had built the mausoleum had cast a very strong spell on it -”this place has been ‘warded’ you see, there is a protective circle cast around it.”

“We are not wanted here,” one told me, as we hurried out.

From there we walked some more until we reached the necropolis -there is no other word for such a well-ordered, beautifully designed, and extensive family burial ground- of the Nakpils. Each tomb is beautiful, those dating from before World War II being extremely beautiful examples of Art Deco and Art Nuveau, in cement, marble, and granite. Our objective was to visit the tomb, located in the main Art Nuveau pylon of the Nakpil family plot, of Gregoria de Jesus, widow of Andres Bonifacio, who had remarried a Nakpil.

One Questor had glimpses of her riding on a horse; another said it seemed that she loved her first husband more; a third said: “She is laughing.”

Laughing, I asked, quite incredulously.

“Yes, she is laughing. She knows that the truth is known and she has been vindicated.”

A reaction, perhaps, to the tragic circumstances of her husband’s death, I surmised.

There was not much else the Questors could say; so I took them to the simple tomb, actually the second tomb, for he had been moved from one obscure part of the North Cemetery to a more prominent one about a decade ago, of Francis Burton Harrison. He was the only American Governor-General who became a Filipino citizen and chose to be buried in the country.

Agitation among the Questors. Many sensed water; a sign -but of what? A turbulent lack of peace. One hinted that Harrison was upset. Had he been buried with a medal?

I didn’t know.

It seems he was angry over something having been taken from him, from his coffin. We could only surmise that in the transfer of his remains, someone had stolen something from the corpse; something important that had been buried with the man. They all sensed anger; frustration. One sensed even hatred. Bitterness.

“But he admired so many aspects of the Filipinos,” a Questor said.

We moved on, to our final stop, the tomb of Claro M. Recto. For the first time since the tomb of Magsaysay, the Questors sensed complete and utter peace.

I was surprised; I had thought the sadness of dying away from his native land would have haunted the tomb of Recto.

One questor told me, no, he is totally at peace -“but he is cradling a boy, a baby.”

Another walked off with a puzzled expression: “I sense a car accident, or a motorcyle accident¦ Not Recto, but someone close to him, someone very dear to him, that’s whom he’s cradling.”

The eldest son of Claro M. Recto had died in a vehicular accident.

But besides this small glimpse into paternal love, nothing else: this was a man content, with no regrets, no worries, his deeds done, his spirit not restless or filled with conflicting emotions.

A good way to end the day. Five hours had passed; we were all soaked. It had rained; the sun had come out, then it had rained again; I was beginning to lose my voice.

To wrap things up I asked them what their impressions were.

One told me that she didn’t realize such a place existed. Another said, with some awe, that he had no idea so many well know personages were in one cemetery. Everyone knew of the Libingan ng mga Bayani -but who would think that here, in a public cemetery, would be the great, the known, and tombs of such variety, from the magnificent to the humble, to the occult to the purely religious.

They said it was a voyage of discovery for them; I thanked them. They seemed pleased to have literally been able to touch history.

That afternoon I saw something rare, particularly in people their age: a sort of selflessness that isn’t based on a naive desire to be heroic, or on a desire to appear to do good while gratifying their own egos. In Tony Perez himself, I found nothing of the self-absorbed, self-conscious auteur attitude that irritates me; indeed I found him a gracious, cultivated, rather reserved man. Quietly self-assured and yet compassionate.

We’re used to hearing about what people usually term the “exploits” of the Spirit Questors; they have received publicity verging on the hysterical; people follow their doings with a sort of morbid curiosity and much of what is written on them verges on the sensationalistic. But for every quest they undertake -and only upon the invitation of someone who asks for their help- they do so much more, quietly and sincerely, giving up their Saturdays in order to use their gifts to help bring consolation and peace to many, many people.

I was impressed with their ease of manner and the way they were equally at ease with abilities -some would call them powers- that would make most people uncomfortable or provoke hostile skepticism in others. I do not trust people who lack a sense of humor and refreshingly enough, their seriousness when it came to their obvious intention to use their abilities responsibly and respectfuly was balanced with a healthy sense of humor. The particular group I met, if they are representative of the Spirit Questors as a whole, should be a source of pride for the Spirit Questors themselves and their mentor, Tony Perez, in particular.

Anyone who shows an interest in what is considered the occult, and in particular anyone claiming to posess gifts that enable them to either communicate with the departed, detect elementals, or sense (by way of seeing in their mind) past events related to a particular location or the life of someone now dead, is more likely than not subject to being viewed as either a source of grisly entertainment or of silly amusement. Whatever your views on the matter, this is wrong. Particularly when the two most objectionable aspects of the occult as we are familiar with it -a thirst for money and a grasping desire to make people regular customers- is absent. More than what they do, it is what they don’t do that impressed me most about the Spirit Questors. As I said, they do not go out and bug people to engage their services; best of all, they refuse any recompense for what they do. If you are a person who honestly beleives you could use their help, you must approach them; and when they have done all they can do, they will never ask you for money, and if you offer them a monetary reward they will firmly, but politely, turn you down. They do what they do, as one of them explained to me, because they recognize they have abilities other people don’t, and it is their duty to use their abilities for the good of other people.

To think that what we read of the Spirit Questors is a fraction of what they do, week after week, and you have to give them credit for dedication.

December surprise

(Right: Official OPS photo)

A fire has broken out in one of the Department of Budget and Management’s buildings. This comes at the heels of reports of former Budget chief Emilia Boncodin making a deposition about the release of fertilizer funds in time for the 2004 elections. This is going to be one of those “coincidences” that is impossible to explain away.

Yesterday someone pointed out an Inquirer story I’d overlooked: Good news for holidays, according to Arroyo. It says the President has a December surprise in store for the country:

She said among the things she planned to give the country is a new executive order that would allow front-line government agencies to operate on “emergency” mode and work more effectively…

“This may need amending the objectives of my EO (executive order) on government reengineering and the issuance of an enabling executive order that will allow front-line agencies to operate in an emergency or state of calamity mode.”

The President did not specify the front-line agencies or the extent of their powers, only that it would help lessen the burdens of entrepreneurs in doing business in the country.

…Ms Arroyo said she planned to reorganize the Presidential Commission on Effective Governance, originally established to streamline the bloated Office of the President…

Aside from putting front-line agencies on emergency mode, the President said she would also embark on a massive cleanup of all municipalities and provincial capitols, re-brand the metropolis from Metro Manila to simply Manila, and decongest it.

Of course, inevitably there’s speculation as to what the President exactly has in mind, and what kind of a trial balloon her statements represent.

In the punditocracy today, the Inquirer editorial says the Citizen’s Congress for Truth and Accountability is a predictable outcome of recent events. Patricio Diaz endorses Sen. Edgardo Angara’s proposal that the President put forward a plan of government as the basis for reconciliation, asks if the Citizen’s Congress is “too serious to be dismissed, but can it be taken seriously?”, and wonders
why Dr. Jose Abueva complained about his Charter change commission being branded a rubber stamp body. Ellen Tordesillas says Bobi Tiglao is being sent to Greece as ambassador, but not quite so fast -perhaps sometime next year, but it may mean he’s either lost out in yet another Palace power struggle, or thrown in the towel. Rene Saguisag mentions the Locsins have apparently lost their decades-long case to recover properties and assets Marcos cronies forcibly took at bargain-basement prices, when the dictatorship shut down the Philippines Free Press: he says it’s bad enough the Locsins lost the case (boldly suggesting it may have something to do with Rep. Teddyboy Locsin voting against the House Committee on Justice’s report), but what’s worse is that the Justice tasked with writing the decision was all praises for the craven martial law Supreme Court. The Free Press (for which I write) at the time of martial law had an enormous circulation, and one of the most modern printing plants in the country. After throwing Teodoro M. Locsin, Sr. in jail, and shutting down the magazine, Marcos was said to have engineered the acquisition of its assets by Hans Menzi, publisher of the Manila Bulletin. That’s why today, the former Free Press office and printing press is used by publications of the Bulletin Group, now owned by Emilio Yap. After Edsa in 1986, with his son as Minister of Information, Locsin, Sr. could have simply taken over the Free Press assets, but insisted that the proper thing to do was to go to court. The case now ends some years after his death. Then, Dan Mariano dissects the President’s new TV program and the question of whether or not the press is too hostile to her.

In the blogosphere, Jove Francisco writes about how the Presidential Security Group has detailed a minder to the Palace Press Corps; my favorite Communist blogger writes eloquently of the times she’s spent communing with novelist and publisher F. Sionil Jose; Edwin Lacierda writes about what it was like to attend St. Jude Catholic School, located next door to the Palace, during the days of martial law; apropos of the Palace, Punzi notes that when that press office factotum tore up the “summons” from the Citizen’s Congress, he may have broken the law; Big Mango continues his series of reflections on the Blueprint for a Sustainable Philippines and examines infrastructure; BuzzMachine blogs about how a new way of assessing the readership of blogs has to be put together; and in The Daily Nightly, Albert Oetgen, a senior producer at NBC News discusses the question of leaks and attributing information gained from such leaks. Political Wire comments on George W. Bush withdrawing the nomination of Harriet Miers to the US Supreme Court, according to some upon the instigation of White House Rasputin Carl Rove, rumored to be facing possible indictment for “Plamegate.” Oh, and this is too good to pass up: The Rude Pundit says Michelle Malkin “ought to be caged like a rabid Shitzu.” Ha!

While I was away

For the first time since I joined the Inquirer, I missed out on writing a column for today, because of extreme jet lag. So sorry.

So much has happened. A week is, indeed, a long time in politics. In the United States, it was fascinating watching how the rot in the Bush administration seems to be extending quite close to the top: more than once I heard people compare George W. Bush to Warren Gamaliel Harding and the Teapot Dome scandal. While I was in the States, anti-Bush people were positively quivering with joy in anticipation of indictments being handed down in the Plamegate scandal (not to mention the problems of Tom DeLay). And you thought the Philippines should be worried -Italy’s caught up in the whole mess (check out the Italy-related posts in Talking Points Memo). Besides Talking Points Memo, I like following Washington Monthly, and the Inside Politics column and Media Cynic.

Quick thought for today: Bukluran Para Sa Katotohanan (click the link to access its blog, which in turn has links to convenor assocations) has embarked on supporting a Citizen’s Congress. The Palace’s response? Ripping up the summons. My initial misgivings were addressed, early on, when it was decided the forum would not be a “people’s court.” I hope the Hyatt 10 talks the talk and walks the walk by presenting their evidence and giving testimony before the Citizen’s Congress. The sessions of the Citizens’ Congress for Truth and Accountability should be interesting. Incidentally, today at 3 p.m., Bukluran is having a Mass at the San Miguel Pro-Cathedral at the foot of the Ayala Bridge near the Palace.

My columns in the Inquirer were Leadership and followership on October 20 and Flash mobs as protest on October 24.

While in the Arab News, my column were Filipinos Should Find Ways of Coalition Building on October 19, and Is Arroyo’s Reputation Salvagable? which came out yesterday.

While I was away, quite a mosaic of blogger’s thoughts on blogging, inspired by the PCIJ’s conference on blogging (their entries on what took place: An overview, and the views of Alex Pabico, Max Limpag, Jove Francisco, JJ Disini, Rachel Khan and Tina Panganiban-Perez, and then the views of Ricky Carandang and John Nery, and finally, those of the guy who keeps this and so many other blogs in tip-top shape, Abe Olandres): Nery, or Newsstand, elaborates on his wish list for bloggers (he wants us to abandon scuttlebutt! Noooo!!):

…I wished that journalist-bloggers minimized or avoided altogether their use of rumor or gossip (or “scuttlebutt,” the word that Manolo Quezon has helped to popularize). That more journalist-bloggers monitor and write about radio news and commentary, which one broadcast executive once described as the “black hole” of Philippine journalism. That more journalist-bloggers learn to add quotes from other sites being linked to, especially when these sites are being criticized, rather than merely providing the links — the better to help the reader evaluate the journalist-blogger’s criticism. And that more journalist-bloggers enjoy “institutional backing” (the phrase Ricky Carandang used in the same early-afternoon discussion).

Newsboy, on the other hand, has thoughts on blogging from a journalist’s point of view, of his own.

Meanwhile Uniffors has two entries on a scandal I wrote about some time ago, concerning offensive remarks made by a Philippine ambassador to Israel. At the time (June of this year) Sec. Alberto Romulo had called me up, and said he appreciated my views and would take them into consideration in determining what to do with the offensive ambassador in question. In its first entry, Uniffors looks into what should be done with the ambassador; in a follow-up entry, it looks into why those defending the ambassador are wrong. I believe the man essentially blew himself up, which may have a useful purpose, but his usefulness henceforth is elsewhere and not as our country’s ambassador to Israel.

Dean Bocobo tackles the interweb with his scientific mind and says, 19 Clicks Is The Diameter of the Blogosphere. Then there’s the pop culture critics: with Walk This Way dwelling on the ugliness -and ironies- of having Marcoses and Aquinos dominating the billboards, and Gigi Goes Gaga condemning the manner in which Filipinos abroad attend parties and leave early -taking home a week’s worth of food. Blogging brothers The Wily Filipino and Bulletproof Vest find themselves discussing beauty and on America’s no fly list, respectively.

The Belmont Club tackles views on the legitimacy (or lack of it) of the trial of Saddam Hussein. Big Mango continues his reflections on the Blueprint for a Sustainable Philippines with some thoughts on the police and the civil service. Go Figure tackles recent writings on the brain drain, while Blurred and Blue tackles the possible end of the World Trade Organization.

And Sassy Lawyer’s been nominated for Deutsche Welle’s Best of Blogs awards! Vote for her, I can see why her blog tickles the Teutons! She deserves to win.

Finally, Sen. Manuel Roxas II recently delivered a speech, A Fresh Start on the Filipino Dream, which seems felicitously timed: I’d written recently on the “vision thing”, and also on leadership (see my Oct. 20 column above). Roxas’s speech addresses both the “vision thing” and the leadership thing:

What cannot work for us is a “business as usual” mentality, because business as usual can only mean certain stagnation and deterioration. Business as usual is what got us to where we are today.

What cannot work for us is more distraction, more illusion—the smoke and mirrors provided, for example, by an ill-timed initiative for Charter change, by creating new rules for governance even if or because we couldn’t enforce the old ones.

Let’s get real, let’s be honest with ourselves. As the ads says: “Magpakatotoo tayo.”

In other words, let government provide the enabling, nurturing, and invigorating environment within which private initiative and industry, meaning people taking responsibility for their lives, can grow and be properly rewarded.

Let government heed and respond to the people’s natural willingness to do the best and the right things for themselves and their children. Instead of telling people what to do and what not to do, the national leadership has to listen—to suffer criticism, if need be—if only to repair the floor upon which we all stand as a nation.

Trust is a two-way thing. The people are not only looking for someone to trust; they are also looking for someone who trusts them, who can bring out the leader in every citizen.

With the continuing imperiled condition of the Arroyo presidency (La Vida Lawyer thinks even the Speaker is looking for his “Sun Tzu Moment”), the stepping-forward of the presidents-to-be has begun. When will the other candidates begin to be heard from? The race for the presidency has begun, and Roxas is the first one out of the gate.

Notes

At the forum I attended, I presented the following analysis of the situation:

I. The collapse of Philippine Institutions
In 1998, an electoral revolt against the established sectors resulted in the elite unleashing a period of reaction that began in 2000 and is culminating now. There is also a generational shift evident in many sectors.
1. Church: Reflects the global crisis in nondescript or inferior prelates put in place by previous pontificate. Unable, unwilling, incapable of matching previous historic (martial law) role; returning to reactionary traditions of previous centuries. Inability of Catholic hierarchy in the Philippines to consistently engage does provide an opportunity to build a genuinely secular society.
2. Civil Society: discredited and disreputable because of closeness to President, and refusal to engage in any meaningful mea culpa. There is a division between the discredited Civil Society leaders who engineered collaboration with the President, and then left her, and the successor generation that has decided either to simply work with the President, or pursue a different and more government-independent strategy. Civil Society contributed to current deadlock by agonizing over succession issue, only now being resolved, four months after crisis began. This reflects a fundamental distrust of society that is being rewarded, in spades, by society greeting Civil Society moves with skepticism and derision.
3. Political Class: has given up any pretenses to statesmanship and is unabashedly struggling for survival. The political class is operating in a political landscape which it is unequipped to cope with, particularly with reference to media, the national economy (kept afloat not by government efforts, but by default due to remittances, which makes economy resilient and resistant to government tinkering, and for whose buoyancy government cannot take credit), and the electorate (which it can only successfully handle in purely local, and not national, terms).
4. Bureaucracy: Disgruntled but also increasingly incompetent. No successor generation being trained and the vestiges of the last properly equipped generation from the 1960s fading from the scene.
5. Military: Divided horizontally, not vertically. Stuck with the same lack of imagination as the rest of the political players. Dangerously susceptible to utopian delusions.
6. Middle/Professional Classes: Opportunities elsewhere has led to a decision to abandon the country, and an open and frank contempt for any prospects of change. There is no incentive to invest either time or money in changing things when energies can be harnessed to build a better life abroad.
II. The President’s options
1. 2006: The Ramos plan, which remains the only thought-out and viable option for the political class.
2. 2007: Plan B for political class, to establish gains in elections; the President’s minimum graceful exit option.
3. 2010: President’s preference, provided she can receive certain guarantees such as immunity.
4. President for Life: her ultimate fall-back position if opponents remain intransigent.
5. The foil of military intervention: increasingly attractive, and dangerously so, to various groups in order to achieve 2, fend off 3, and ultimately prevent, 4.
III. A hardening of positions
1. Preemptive, calibrated, response: so far, despites occasional snafus, handled effectively and adeptly.
2. Executive Order prohibiting testimony by bureaucracy and military: part of a strategy of pushing the envelope. Has not met with enough resistance.
3. Demolition of opposition: Successful, so far, in no large part due to inherent weakness of opposition, particularly Estrada and Lacson. Less successful with Mrs. Aquino.
4. Cases against opponents:
5. Take-over of industries: To keep businessmen (oligarchs) in line. Provides prospects of increased government attention and incentives for cooperative businessmen. Government has been less confrontational with business than previous administration and has been more prudent in the rackets it pursues for itself.
6. Emergency Rule: Not to be discounted as an option that seems poised for success if current trends continue.
7. President tapping provinces as antidote to unrest in capital: Successfully reaping rewards from cultivating provinces from Day One of administration.
IV. Transactional foreign policy:
1. Weakness vis-à-vis USA due to Iraq blunder, has resulted in the promise of an anti-terrorism law patterned after Singapore and Malaysia
2. “China card” played by administration: China’s regional focus on business to build goodwill portrays USA as having been transformed from a conservative, consensus-building power, to a destabilizing, renegade entity in the region.
3. Australia and Visiting Forces Agreement: Australia as surrogate for USA points to only US interest in the Philippines at present, which is security-related (not to discount USAID achievements in Mindanao, but the perception remains that American policy is uneven and unreliable)
4. Japan: questions on ODA due to government incapacity to provide matching funds
V. Charter change
Parliamentary government is being pushed forward on the basis of a crafty calculation that the increasing irrelevance of politics will ultimately justify, in effect, disenfranchising the population.
1. Uncooperative Senate: main obstacle to charter change; the upper house remains the only major government institution displaying independence.
2. Public unsure: Uncertainty fostered by President’s tactics such as Consultative Commission; issues such as parliamentary versus presidential government are quite alien to majority, and not even clearly understood by those claiming to support it; questions about real motives of proponents (e.g. Speaker of the House) add to skepticism, as does the question of whether public will accept new Constitution as a means to achieve a graceful exit.
3. Federalism popular, but misunderstood: Weakening of gubernatorial support will pit them against provincial supporters; question of how it will benefit poor provinces unresolved.
4. Parliamentary insistence of political class: Their desire for survival through parliamentary government leaves others, even reformers who genuinely prefer parliamentary model, cold. No consensus on what kind of parliamentary government, particularly on the question of unicameralism.
5. Only Germans involved in party-building: And at least one German observer has pointed out the futility of a parliamentary experiment without strong parties.
VI. US Policy challenges:
1. Historical burdens (e.g. WW2 vets claims) remain
2. Democratization is clearly not a primary US agenda
3. Mindanao suffering from uneven US focus
4. Anti-insurgency versus Maoists not receiving enough attention: insurgency, not terrorism, is the clear and present danger to the Philippines
5. Failure to realize Filipinos better at manipulating US than US is at manipulating Filipinos
6. Great opportunities lie ahead in education programs and entrepreneurship assistance

From those present (one-on-one, informally: what was discussed at the round table itself was “off the record), which included scholars and diplomats who have studied the country and are involved in projects affecting the country, no one disagreed with my analysis. I also received the following feedback:

1. The Philippines is stuck. It is not yet a failed state, but is acting like one.
2. The issues at hand –parliamentary versus presidential, etc.- are the same that have been debated for forty years. Inability of sectors to resolve the various debates indicates how poorly they serve the country.
3. Federalism is demand of MILF for peace. If true that FVR et al. are skeptical about Federalism, then prospects for peace are slim. Were peace to be declared in Mindanao, it would be awash in money. Donors are poised to pump in funds, but only if peace is achieved. There are questions, though, if Mindanao can properly absorb the funds earmarked for it.
4. The “brain drain” is the most serious problem facing the country. “The brain drain is killing the Philippines.” Common assumption: increasingly desperate elite fighting for crumbs among each other, and there is no longer a “center” with clout.
5. Reforms targeted at eliminating patronage ignores that patronage is the lifeblood of politics. The question is not eliminating patronage, but ensuring such funds reaches the population and is not diverted along the way, and eliminating cronyism, the vast appointing powers of the President of the Philippines (bringing it back to at least the pre-martial law level and not the bloated Marcosian levels that have been retained), and the tendency of Philippine business to intervene in politics to ensure favorable concessions (“rent-seeking”).
6. Politics increasingly irrelevant to Philippine life. Party-building must be done first, otherwise all other institutional changes will be cosmetic at best. Indonesia studied Philippine multi-party system as example to avoid at all costs, hence decision to go for more expensive (in the sort term) but more efficient (as it guarantees clear mandates and hence, stability) run-off elections system. Most skeptical about parliamentary government in the Philippines.
7. Anti-Terror law
8. While generally admiring of the “richness” of NGO life in the Philippines, overwhelming sense that Civil Society is morally bankrupt and discredited.
9. Consensus that way out of impasse begins with holding a clean election.
10. First priority equally divided on finally finishing land reform (Asian view) or delivering impartial justice (American view).

Jurado sabotaged by editor

Pardon me, but your Freudian slip is showing. Compare the synopsis on the main page of the Manila Standard-Today with Emil Jurado’s real column:

Short Version A:

Former President President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo is right. Malacañang and the police have nothing to apologize for when a motely group of three bishops known to be anti-GMA, priests and nuns cum opposition politicians were “cannonized” with a fireman’s water hose when they challenged the “no permit, no rally” and the “no-no rally at Mendiola” last Friday.

Real Version B:

President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo is right. Malacañang and the police have nothing to apologize for when a motely group of three bishops known to be anti-GMA, priests and nuns cum opposition politicians were “cannonized” with a fireman’s water hose when they challenged the “no permit, no rally” and the “no-no rally at Mendiola” last Friday.

A naughty editor somewhere? Tee hee!

The real news today is the latest addition to Sec. Leandro Mendoza’s empire in the Department of Transportation and Communications: as this Tribune story indicates, Mendoza, who does not enjoy the reputation of being a nice guy, to put it mildly, among some media people in the know, and who has been bruited-about as the designated commander of the President’s anti-coup task force, has been given control over the National Telecommunications Commission. In effect this gives Mendoza purview over essential installations, ranging from seaports to airports, the Coast Guard, telegraph, wireless, and telephone communications, and radio and TV. Just the sort of things you want your designated muscle to have authority over.

Cause and effect department: Bishop Teodoro Bacani blasts the government; Brother Mike Velarde of El Shaddai expresses displeasure with the government; the Palace backpedals on rally policies (Dean Jorge Bocobo may be right on the money: the Palace has blinked, and might be better off beating a strategic retreat). But never mind, Bel Cunanan continues to chirp a happy tune.

[Right: President Arroyo accepts the credentials of His Excellency, Carlos Eduardo Sette Camara Da Fonseca Costa, as the new Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Federative Republic of Brazil to the Philippines Monday (Oct. 17) at Malacañang’s Rizal Hall. (Exequiel Supera - OPS-NIB Photo)] My caption: “Here is the bill for Garci’s hotel stay, Madam President…”

Ricky Carandang finally weighs in with his findings, so far, as to where in the world former Comelec commissioner Virgilio Garcillano might be:

Curiously enough, it seems Remulla is being given the runaround by the Department of Foreign Affairs. A query was sent to the Argentinian government, but it seems none was sent to the Brazilian government. No effort has been made to communicate with Remulla about the results of their queries, or if the queries were even made.

Jove Francisco is apparently back, and has resumed observing the President with gusto. My favorite Communist blogger bares her soul in yet another elegantly-written entry. And Vatican Watcher thinks the rapprochement between the Holy See and the People’s Republic of China is an error (he has a good point: surely the ruthless persecution of Catholics loyal to Rome won’t stop, just because the State-controlled Church reunites with Rome).

I’m leaving tonight for a conference in Washington, D.C., so updates will most likely be highly irregular until I return.I’m going to try to record some of my thoughts while traveling and see if I can turn them into some sort of Podcast. Sorry Yuga, won’t be seeing you at the PCIJ Blogging Conference.

For the nonce, here are some reliably interesting blogs:

The exponent of blogging-as-journalism is BuzzMachine in the USA, while Leon Kilat in Cebu City seems to be the most wired and net-savvy professional journalist who blogs (at least to my mind). Both can be relied upon to integrate journalism with the world wide web and developments of a technological nature therein. Another media person at the cutting edge of everything is iBlog: podcasting, vidcasting, blogging, he’s done it all, and extremely well. TV anchors have a model for blogging in The Daily Nightly. For all things aesthetic, Kottke.org is always choc-full-o-fun. For all things movie and TV related, there’s The Rocketboy Chronicles (for the best guilt-inducing Celebrity trash, there’s Conversations with Famous People). For everything cultural, both highbrow and pop, there’s Walk this Way. For everything food-related, there’s Market Manila. Travel-related? Check out FriskoDude. and After a long hiatus, Cogito Ergo Sam has returned as a consistently good read. The best Filipino humorist on line remains Kwentong Tambay.

And as for other matters. Edwin Lacierda has a new blog, Saklawlaw, dispensing free legal advice. And how’s this, Splintered thoughts from a bleeding mind, for a soothing-looking blog?

And as for this (from the official government portal):

It should be classified under “recycled, discredited symbols.” I’ts too eerily similar to the symbol of Marcos’s New Society. Those of us of a certain age remember that well.

Scorched earth policy

As part of his mentoring me, Teddy Locsin once gave me a stack of books, including that famous work by Montesquieu known as The Spirit of the Laws. I was given the book in 1995, told to read it, and found it invaluable during the time of troubles of Joseph Estrada. The other day, spotting it on a shelf, I idly leafed through it and revisited the passages I’d underlined in the past. One of them provided the focus for my column today. Scorched Earth Governance.

My view is that the President is showing weak leadership, and that by nature she is a weak leader, though she likes to view herself as a strong one. Billy Esposo seems to be analyzing things and arriving at a similar conclusion. He says the priorities of the President are three:

1. Rally the morale of her troops in order to stop the erosion of her support base. By troops, I mean both the members of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) who are still loyal to her as well as her political supporters. She knows only too well how disintegration of support had led to the fall of Marcos and Estrada. To survive the political jungle, one must keep one’s support base intact – let it crumble and you fall into the abyss.
2. Demoralize the forces of the opposition. By opposition, I do not just refer to the pathetic political opposition parties who lost the respect of the middle class when they rallied behind an unproven movie actor – Fernando Poe, Jr. I refer to the public at large, the close to 80% who think that Ms Arroyo stole the 2004 elections and now want her to vacate the presidency.
3. Discourage key sectors and power players, notably the military, from challenging her continued stay in office. The AFP and the US are examples of power blocks who are supposed to be non-aligned in these political struggles. But as we saw with the 1986 People Power Revolt, both were key players that tilted the outcome in favor of Cory Aquino.

Here are three versions of the same event involving the fallout from the same controversial event: The Manila Standard-Today says the Palace is unapologetic about hosing-down protesters; the Philippine Daily Inquirer says a fight between the bishops and the President is brewing; the Manila Times takes a similar tack; and for opposite poles on the same issue, contrast the take of the Daily Tribune and that of Standard-Today columnist Jojo Robles to see how the same issue is handled by opposing camps. The Sun-Star reports that the Palace denies it’s making a list -or checking it twice- of journalists who have been naughty or nice.

The punditocracy today has Fr. Joaquin Bernas ruefully admitting that he and fellow Constitutional Commission delegates must have been napping when they retained a Marcos-era provision allowing the President to take over businesses (apropos of the ongoing debate about the scope of the President’s powers, PCIJ reproduces a helpful summary of the President’s emergency and other powers) ; apropos of the rallies, Conrado de Quiros takes aim at the President, asking where she was when people actually did something during Edsa 2; Random Jottings cheekily says the “wet look” is now a political statement. And there’s an amusing column by Efren Danao on the antics of congressmen and assemblymen.

In the blogosphere, there has been much rejoicing over the discovery that Jessica Zafra has a blog (hat tip to Jove). Newsstand takes a dim view of Teofisto Guingona III; Paeng took a dim view of his parish priest and walked out of mass when the priest began defending the government’s policy of calibrated, preemptive response during the sermon (my mother told me that on the other hand, in his TV mass, Bishop Teodoro Bacani took a dig at the government, while reflecting on the same Gospel text as the priest that offended Paeng); Edwin Lacierda takes a dim view of the government’s rally policy and suggests how it can be challenged in court; News Boy, after a long hiatus, takes a dim view of those who take a dim view of the loyalty of the military and most of all, who have a dim view of the Palace’s intentions; Go Figure examines why consumers seem to have so little power; Belmont Club as an interesting entry on the referendum to ratify the Iraqi Constitution; Newsroom Barkada notes the World Health Organization warns of a possible bird flu pandemic.

The blogger-analysist have meaty entries: Philippine Commentary believes that there are various forces that are in a position to exercise a sort of veto power over the President. He identifies the forces as: former president Fidel Ramos, the Catholic bishops, and… well, to be announced he says, hinting the other veto-holders are the Americans and the Philippine military. He predicts that the mailed fist having failed to a certain extent, the President will try to unleash yet another charm offensive. Ricky Carandang muses on the roots of the country’s problems, and decides it’s not poverty per se, but rather, a fundamental lack of trust, between sectors and the public and the government:

I believe that before we can talk about models for sustainable economic development, we must first build a just society that everyone can feel they have a stake in. Before we can seriously consider charter change we Filipinos must first prove that we can trust each other. Otherwise every ten year economic plan that any government thinks of will fail and every effort to revise the political system will be viewed by the people as yet another betrayal of their aspirations.

Finally, Torn & Frayed laments the impending debut of a musical on Imelda Marcos.

Pissed-off pro-parliament people

The real big news, of course, is the return to the blogging scene of the arch-blogger among political bloggers, Philippine Commentary. I, for one, and there are many others, am overjoyed over Dean Jorge Bocobo’s return to the blogosphere. One of his first entries (in this, the latest reincarnation of his blog), points out that the Fil-Am I love to hate, Michelle Malkin, was just being a patriotic American. Touche, and a good point -but her being a patriotic American comes at the expense of her being a race-traitor, in a sense. But I must say that Bocobo points out something I missed, and which should have been obvious. Bocobo, incidentally, speaks highly of Belmont Club, which recently posted an interesting entry on how blogs are gradually becoming sources of news and not just opinion.

Meanwhile…

Carmen Pedrosa is rather upset that the Advisory Commission on Constitutional Change can’t make up its mind on whether to advocate presidential or parliamentary government, preferring, instead, to take the question to the people. Says she,

Chairman Manny Angeles of the committee on form of government gave his report and the floor was opened for interpellations. After some debate, the view was expressed by some members that the committee report did not convince them that a shift was necessary. On one side there were those who said maybe we should just reform the presidential system we have here and there.

…But in the end, these contrasting views were overruled by those who said they were not convinced a case had been made for a shift to parliamentary government. Ergo, the group must defer any vote before it goes to consultations with the public…

The lesson in all this is a fundamental difficulty of the make-up of the commission. Chairman Abueva expressed this earlier. He said he thought it would be possible to work as a group given that members came from different cultures and disciplines. To me, there was an even more fundamental difference. There were some who had made charter change their advocacy and therefore had done their homework. There were others coming in from the cold and understandably have a different frame of reference in trying to understand the language of charter change advocacy. This substantial difference is worrying with the group poised to consult with the public. I, for one, think that unless we resolve and understand what charter change is all about among ourselves, we will not have a face that could go on consultations with the public.

I hear from my colleagues that we will present both sides of the debate and then allow the people to choose between the two. To me that is a cop-out. I am afraid it will be a case of the blind leading the blind. It may sound good but it will only compound the problem if the idea is to come up with an intelligent response to charter change that President GMA could present to Congress when it proposes the amendments in constituent assembly.

Pedrosa’s frustrations are shared, I’m sure, by other advocates of the parliamentary system, such as former president Ramos and Speaker de Venecia. I recently had a an interesting discussion with an operative of a political party, and according to the operative, when Indonesia looked for a model to emulate when it came to holding democratic elections, they immediately looked to the Philippines. The Indonesians immediately concluded that the Philippine mutli-party system as it exists would not result in anything positive; but preferring, as they did, a presidential system, the Indonesians then discussed how to prevent the Philippine situation which practically assures every president the lack of a clear and undeniable mandate to govern. They decided on run-off elections. However, they realized that run-off elections are expensive; but then, the question boiled down to what would be cheaper, in the long run: a one-off election, with a multiparty system, resulting in minority presidents unequipped with a solid mandate, or run-off elections, which ensured whoever won would be armed with an unquestionable majority? They decided it’s cheaper in the long term, to ensure that the person eventually elected president has a solid majority. I myself prefer the presidential system, and insist that our legislature must always be bicameral. It seems Justice Isagani Cruz is also of the same mind -he pens a hard-hitting blast against the proponents of parliamentary government.

Congratulations are in order to the staff of the new Daily Business Mirror, which Newsstand has been lucky enough to see a copy of. Speaking of newspapers, La Vida Lawyer calls the Philippine Star a crony paper. And BuzzMachine questions the reasoning that insists journalists should be condemned to poverty.

Autogolpe

(Right: Official Palace photo. Add your own caption.)

As I’m writing this, the President is addressing the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industries, and giving a verbal spanking to those opposed to her -opposing is ok, she says, as long as the opposition is restricted to “fiscalizing.”

Our word for the day is autogolpe, or self-coup, a term popularized by the autogolpe of Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori. A self-coup is, in a sense, a type of purge, such as the Night of the Long Knives, in which Adolf Hitler terminated party rivals and by so doing, ensured the support of the armed forces for his rule. In our own history we have self-coups, such as Marcos’s proclamation of martial law; and we have had purges aplenty, the Bonifacio-Aguinaldo leadership showdown being one, and more recent ones in revolutionary movements such as the Huks and the Communist Party of the Philippines.
Newsbreak’s article titled War Games, detailing how the President dealt with rumors of a coup attempt last October 2, has set the stage, or rather, put ongoing events in a military perspective.

Based on our interviews with civilian and military sources, it appears that those who have been actively recruiting for a coup are the following: members of Magdalo, or Philippine Military Academy graduates in the 1990s; former members of the Reform the Armed Forces Movement-Young Officers Union (RAM-YOU), who have apparently regrouped and reunited; junior officers who are linked to the RAM-YOU; and the remaining Marcos loyalists within the military.

The government is bent on jumping the gun on the plotters, thus the successive moves of issuing a tough order preventing bureaucrats and police and military from testifying against the President and peddling reports of assassination threats against Ms. Arroyo.

The President’s loyalists won’t give in easily, and many anti-Arroyo officers are aware of this. Thus, they are spending a lot of time convincing as many officers as they can, preferring that if there’s a withdrawal of support by the military from their commander in chief, it would be complete, similar to what happened in Edsa 1 and Edsa 2.

So there you have it, an amazing race, so to speak. There has been scuttlebutt aplenty about the Secretary of Justice ostentatiously leaving drafts of orders (a Proclamation declaring a state of lawless violence, rebellion, and a state of national emergency, and one establishing a revolutionary government which is said to be an unnumbered draft for an Executive Order) on his desk, of functionaries in his department being instructed to prepare warrants of arrest, and even of other officials being told to prepare arresting teams (the list, as supposedly leaked around since Monday: Rep. Escudero, Sen. Lacson, Atty. Vinzons-Chato, Atty. Homobono Adaza, Pastor Saycon, Guillermo Luz, Concepcion, Benigno Aquino III, plus active and retired military officers such as Danny Lim, Gen. Gudani, Dominguez,Nazareno, de los Santos, Abat, de Villa -as one colleague put it, “no one will weep for many of them”).

The process going on then, is pretty uncreative: testing the limits of what the public will accept, while conditioning the public as to what scenarios to expect. What the Inquirer editorialized yesterday as the trial balloon system of the President has been stepped up a pace by the Palace itself suggesting there are three conditions for emergency rule:

Ermita cited three factors that could force the President’s hand to push the emergency rule button — terrorism, oil prices and peace and order — all of which the government had declared in the past few weeks as emerging threats to economic and political stability.

Today’s Inquirer editorial characterizes the Executive Secretary’s statements, combined with other Palace pronouncements, as an Unspeakable Peril. As for terrorism opportunities, so to speak, they could range from attacks on protest rallies, or, God forbid, one on the 2005 Southeast Asian Games to be held in Metro Manila, Cebu, Bacolod and Subic; peace and order problems are already emerging: there’s a sudden epidemic of robberies ranging from to cake shops; threats to economic and political stability might include a simulated failed coup attempt or an even more aggressive confrontation between the President and the Senate (or an uncooperative Supreme Court failing to mediate to the satisfaction of either party).

Fr. Joaquin Bernas, SJ believes the President has vast powers still under a martial law scenario; and that any discussion on the issue of special powers or martial law boils down to whether one trusts or distrusts, the President.

But nervousness is particularly extreme as Congress embarks on a recess that will find the Senate President overseas, the population distracted with a long weekend at the end of the month, and vast numbers of citizens traveling to pay their respects at the tombs of their family members. From the beginning of this recess to the New Year, there are simply too many opportunities ripe for exploitation both by the government and its enemies.

Just as the Palace says there are three conditions that would (or might, or is it will?) trigger some sort of emergency rule, there seem to be three avenues being explored to enable the President to achieve the same thing without having to call it emergency rule or even martial law:

The first is through the anti-terrorism bill. There is a brilliant entry by the Sassy Lawyer dissecting the anti-terrorism bill, and she argues that it is no less than a Bill of Attainder, something the Constitution forbids but which most people are hazy when it comes to actually defining. She defines it, and indicates how the proposed law is unconstitutional. Not only that, she examines, in detail, how the President could use the proposed law to suppress all opposition. Benito Lim has his own take as to why the proposed law seems sinister.

The second is through Constitutional amendments, or forcing a confrontation that would provide the pretext for an autogulpe. The President’s pet party, Kampi, has begun to challenge the timeline the dominant administration party, Lakas-CMD, wants. Read Julius Fortuna’s column today: the President’s putative speaker, Ronnie Puno, is sowing confusion and dissension within the ruling coalition.

The third way is to simply demolish the credibility of all those opposed to the President, while systematically provoking them so that the rash will react heatedly and strengthen the government’s argument that it must instill order (and fend off rumors stemming from things like anti corruption adviser Tony Kwok’s declaration that the anti-corruption drive is in crisis). Parties in a position to oppose have been split, and continue to be split, with the Palace’s encouragement. You know the mentality of the Palace is headed in a sinister direction when quite openly, a partisan of the President such as Alex Magno, can compare Manila Mayor Lito Atienza favorably to the late Ramon Bagatsing, a Marcos stooge if there ever was one.

Two pundits have parallel opinions as to what all these moves and counter-moves, whether in public or in the shadows, portend. Both seem to think it involves a signal from a foreign power -the United States. Tony Abaya believes the Palace suspects or even knows, that the United States is not pleased with the President, and to forestall any damaging revelations, might as well launch a crackdown now:

How damaging? Possibly details about the dollar deposits, real estate holdings and other assets of husband and wife in the US, and possibly details about his and her (separate) sex lives. I cannot imagine anything more damaging than this. All of which may tumble out into the open when the indictments against Aquino are made public next week.

In anticipation of the public uproar that will greet these revelations, the Arroyo government is deliberately sending signals that suggest an impending declaration of emergency rule, short of martial law.

... I would not be surprised if the credible and straight-talking Gary Teves is fired or is forced to resign soon.

It is also possible that Lacson already has those damaging dossiers stolen by Aragoncillo from Dick Cheney’s office, but was/is biding his time to make them public until he is ready with his own grab for power, which would be distinct and separate from Binay’s and Morales’ silly Solidarity “caretaker (revolutionary) council” that seeks to restore Erap to the presidency. The Americans may have unwittingly upset Lacson plans, but it does not necessarily mean that they are solicitous about GMA’s future.

On the other hand, Ricky Carandang believes the United States has decided to send a signal as to the parameters that should govern regime change, although actively engaging in the effort simply isn’t worth America’s time or energy:

So while they are not willing to step in decisively to influence events here, Washington is not so indifferent that it will not convey its preferences in a discreet way.

And this I believe is the message: The US is not inclined to step in to defend the Arroyo Adminstration if it comes under attack. Neither will it participate in any attempt to illegally undermine GMA. But it may step in to defend Arroyo if those who seek to bring her down are connected in any way to Joseph Estrada or the communists, who Washington believes would be worse than GMA.

Who could they be sending this message to? Go figure.

It seems characteristic of the Palace, to me, to overreact to any potential actions by Senator Lacson, who enjoys a reputation for cleverness and ruthlessness (he has more of the latter than the former, I think), just as it seems quite characteristic of the Americans not to particularly bother about the Philippines when it has bigger fish to fry.

Anyway, my column for today is Country First Always. The punditocracy weighs in with views on the Aragoncillo spy case, such as Dong Puno’s view that it’s all much ado about nothing, and views on the opposition and the Palace’s attitudes towards its opponents: Emil Jurado says the Palace’s enemies are engaging in their own “calibrated preemptive response”; Fel Maragay thinks the Palace’s worst enemies are in the bureaucracy; Bong Wenceslao thinks the opposition isn’t much of a threat, period. Juan Mercado, back from abroad, thinks the country is adrift.

In the blogosphere, Leon Kilat reports on how Catholic bishops are being encouraged to set up blogs; TPM cafe has a link to a new essay on American politics (the essay defines it as the politics of polarization); Bulletproof Vest has some spy-related links and an analysis of the lapses in grammar of a top Philippine official; Parallel Universes comments on the difficulties Filipino doctors-turned-nurses are having in some parts of the USA; Yuga analyzes Inq7.net and decides it has too many ads; Carlos Celdran blasts ANC.

Curious historical footnote of the day: a quotation from a book by Napoleon Hill in Sky Ferret has Hill claiming he counseled Manuel L. Quezon on how to be successful:

There is a well-recognized power in setting up a definite goal. Few, however, realize the power of setting a realistic time limit in which one intends to attain that goal. After having counseled Senor Quezon for some years, I induced him to set a definite time limit for freeing the Philippines and becoming the new nation’s leader. I also prepared an affirmation which he repeated to himself daily. It closed with a statement of this nature. “I will allow no person’s opinion, no influence to enter my mind which does not harmonize with my purpose.” Both the time limit and the affirmation were of great help to Quezon in knowing his own mind and keeping his own direction in the face of the enormous difficulties which besets him.

Spymania

My Arab News column for this week is Spying on the US Makes Manila Look Bad. Related reads are Jove’s recent reports from the USA, and a curious article in the Manila Times, concerning an American “mystery ship” off Mindanao. Spymania!

The punditocracy offers up the following for our delectation today: the Inquirer editorial tackles what it views as a Palace good cop, bad cop routine, with a twist; Greg Macabenta says “Gloriagate” has fractured the Filipino-American community on a scale reminiscent of martial law; Carmen Guerrero Nakpil comments on another fractured community: that of the descendants of those who fought in the revolution, split since Bonifacio’s execution, and split again because of what she perceives as the President’s trying to use the descendants of heroes for partisan purposes; and Ambeth Ocampo, on a lighter note, has a charming column on pre-war gossip magazines, bordellos, and ham. Jarius Bondoc, on the other hand, accuses the senate of sloth.

The blogosphere has been rather quiet. Uniffors issues a blast against the Anti-Terrorism bill. Big Mango has been continuing his series of responses to the Blueprint for a Viable Philippines. BuzzMachine insists journalism is an act, not a person. Go Figure has an interesting entry on the Nobel Prize for Economics and Game Theory. Sassy devotes her legal skills to the case of a Makati-based alien.

I’ve been meaning to point out Vaes9’s list of Metro Manila Trivia for some time. So there.

Follow-the-links: Global Voices Online points to Yuga’s views as to how many Filipino bloggers there really are. New Economist points to a book titled The Conquest of Nature: A Brief Economic History of the World, 10,000 BC-2000 AD. TPM Cafe has an article pointing to a paper on the new Iraqi Constitution. Kottke.org points to the Kingdom of Bhutan which measures not Gross National Product, but Gross National Happiness.

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