The return of the native

Thanks to Madame Chiang for pointing this out:

Someone at The Philippine Star has a sense of humour…. she says.

The past few days have produced some interesting developments. Most interesting of all: the return of the President’s husband, to bury his half-sister. Ordinarily, private grief should not be a cause for public notice, but his presence, brief as it might be, will only help to bring one of the causes for the President’s troubles back to public attention.

The President, after the initial errors when her counteroffensive resulted in a media mess, has been on the offensive, appearing on local and international media, with the same message every time. Sec. Gabby Claudio last Friday was telling Julius Babao that he regretted the mishandling of the President’s first press conference, because the “high” from the State of the Nation Address didn’t last very long. Sec. Mike Defensor on the other hand recounted how, as soon as he got word of the media being angry, he called the Palace and ran into people reluctant to listen to his advice: his response, in exasperation, was, “fine, go ahead, if you guys think you’re so good.” The President has been enjoying media mileage caused by her being selected as the fourth most powerful woman in the world Piercing Pens aren’t amused; neither is Political Junky, a hat tip, by the way, for Forbes link; activist Gari isn’t impressed, either), and due to the release of Bear Sterns & Co.’s report on the odds on her staying in power. Incidentally, the author of the report, John Steurmer, is the fellow whose picking of media brains I wrote about in a previous entry. Newsstand takes a look at both the report and Steurmer (read Mario Taguiwalo’s response, too). What I’d add is that when he was discussing the report with us, Steurmer did insist it was pretty much a work in progress, and that circumstances could change rather quickly. As an example he gave his changing some of his initial probabilities when the Senate President broke ranks with the President.

Incidentally, Newsstand also blogged on Archbishop Oscar Cruz’s latest “surprise” witness, rumored to be former Isabela governor Faustino Dy. Newsstand initially brought it up in this post and lets the cat out of the bag in this post.

Quite a few people I talk to are puzzled by the tactical behavior of the archbishop. Edwin Lacierda sums up many opinions I’ve heard, by calling the archbishop a “walking ennui”. The danger the archbishop runs, is that his opponents have ample time to either pressure witnesses, or come up with a strong defense.

Sylvia Mayuga’s online column today makes for interesting reading, not least because of her synthesis of both mainstream media information, her own sources, and research by people in the blogosphere. Her main point is one other journalists have been looking into: who was behind the “Hello, Garci” tapes? Her take:

First, the “mother of all tapes” was produced not by an oppositionist plot but on orders from the Palace to spy on its dubious ally Virgilio Garcillano– whether from the Office of the President or the First Gentleman, my source did not say.

What this source did say is that the team on top of this operation was composed of First Gentleman Mike Arroyo, the ISAFP chief and the KAMPI stalwart and Antipolo representative Ronaldo ‘Ronnie’ Puno. (He is also the brother of Estrada’s former Executive Secretary and spokesperson, Ricardo ‘Dong’ Puno.)

This, incidentally, answers the question that came up during a recent talk I had with a reporter, who wondered why it seemed Ronnie Puno wasn’t front and center in the Palace counter-propaganda offensive. I thought it was because the President’s husband’s allies, including those in the President’s pet party, Kampi, are weak; Mayuga explains why they may be particularly weak right now.

So this coming week will be defined by the resumption of the Senate hearings on Jueteng; and the ongoing saga of impeachment. Edwin Lacierda has some thoughts on how the rules may or may not define the game. The game, so far, at least has a schedule: Erin Tanada, in a forum at La Salle Green Hills last Friday, said it would be as follows.

August 9: debates on Form
August 16: debates on Substance
August 24: Notices to respondents (possibly for them to reply by August 29)
Last week of September: Debates on determining Probable Cause.

This has the effect of delaying the 15 week time frame by a week or two; immediate consequences? Heightening the certainty that Chief Justice Hilario Davide, Jr., will not preside over an impeachment trial. Instead, the next Chief Justice (scuttlebutt says it will be Justice Artemio Panganiban) will preside.

Leon Kilat, by the way, has an interesting entry on blogging. Dean Alfar and Ederic Eder both blogged about the latest GMA joke. I spent the weekend dutifully reading PCIJ’s readings on Federalism, and was pleasantly surprised that the Abueva proposal contains provisions for both bicameralism and proportional representation. I’m thankful, by the way, for fellow bloggers who have some nice things to say about my own proposals.

Visual aids

The map on the left is from Wikipedia and shows the general results of the election. The map on the right is from Inq7.net, and appeared in the Inquirer’s front page today. Green marks provinces with governors supporting the President; Red are provinces for the President’s resignation; yellow marks provinces that are neutral. Both maps are surprisingly similar. The full roster of governors and where they stand is here.

Federalism

My column yesterday was The Sixth Republic, in which I argue that of the proposals made by former president Ramos and Speaker de Venecia, the least controversial and thus, most popular, is Federalism. My main purpose in the column was to begin pointing out that what Ramos proposed as a three-in-one package, are in fact, three, separate, complicated proposals, and it doesn’t do anyone any good to think it’s an all-or-nothing package. Personally I believe we’d be better off with Federalism, but not unicameralism, although I’m open to a parliamentary (or to be more precise, a semi-presidential) government.

Federalism’s daddy

The idea of Federalism in the Philippine context we owe, I believe, to the late Don Salvador Araneta, who proposed it in his Bayanikasan Constitution (an introduction to it, is here, along with part one of the proposed charter, and part two of the rest of the charter is here). Araneta’s ideas weren’t pulled out of thin air, but were, instead, the result of three years of studies under the auspices of Philconsa and Araneta’s own pretty formidable interest in the matter.

Araneta’s proposals can be seen to have influenced people as varied as former President Ramos, with his political trinity of unicameralism, Federalism, and parliamentarism, to David Martinez, whose book, “A Country of Our Own: Partitioning the Philippines,” on the need to re-invent the Philippines and reorganize it along the lines of a free association of states (a confederation), is a remarkable intellectual achievement indeed (not that I agree with all of it, but the book does make for provocative reading). Ramos and Martinez, in a sense, are the conservative and radical interpretations of Araneta’s ideas.

The biggest problem involving Philippine federalism is how the states will be defined. The other proposals, such as unicameralism and parliamentarism, will affect how this is done.

Some interesting views are emerging on the issue of the current proposals. Tony Abaya makes some compelling arguments for parliamentarism but against federalism. JJ Disini remains unconvinced by proposals for unicameral parliamentarianism. Let me add at this point something important: Joel Rocamora of the Institute for Popular Democracy is proposing proportional representation. This is something we should all become familiar with, as an electoral practice. The counter-proposal to proportional representation, is the Two-Party system, which I initially prefer.

What bothers me, of course, is that Federalism and other changes have been tied to the President’s political survival. It bothers me even more that well-meaning people like Prof. Jose Abueva have signed on to the Ramos-Arroyo-de Venecia Plan so as to finally achieved their Federalist dream. Add to this reports of senators being wooed by the Speaker, who is prepared to promise them guaranteed seats in a National Assembly in exchange for their supporting charter change, and I am reinforced in my original opinion that the proposal is big, bold, and lies. I believe that the question of the president’s stay in power must be resolved, before the question of constitutional changes is tackled. In the meantime, a consultative commission on charter change can, and should, be appointed. If it does its work well, it can help Congress and thus make a constituent assembly acceptable to the people, which is really the way to go when amending (and not entirely replacing) a constitution is undertaken. A consultative commission can help achieve what we now lack: a national consensus on what, exactly, the changes should be. But if we want an entirely new constitution, then we have to have a convention.

Update: PCI has two entries that make for instructive reading. The first reading asks, are we ready for a parliamentary system? The second gives historical backgrounds to Federalism. My only addition is that Mojares’s information is distinct from the influence Salvador Araneta’s thinking had on today’s major players. That is: Mojares indicates the basis for the Federal ideal; Araneta has articulated it in modern terms.

The President’s “sweet spot”

An interesting dinner with colleagues in media, upon the invitation of a foreign visitor affiliated with an overseas investment analysis firm.

Random notes from the freewheeling discussion:

1. The impeachment timeline

60 session days for the impeachment complaint to be resolved and then decided in plenary, equals 15 weeks. So that means the impeachment complaint wouldn’t be voted upon in plenary, or before the House of Representatives as a whole, until October. It could get further bogged down there, until say, November. By this time, Chief Justice Hilario Davide would have retired, and most likely replaced by Justice Artemio Panganiban.

During the 15 weeks the impeachment complaint is debated in the Committee on Justice, the President’s team has a chance to mount a dress rehearsal of the defense in the senate; the opposition, on the other hand, in undergoing the same process, perhaps hopes it will raise the political temperature. There is the risk, of course, people will get bored, and tune out. The majority seems inclined to push forward an interpretation of the rules that says failure to have reached 79 signatures on the day of filing means the impeachment complaint is stuck in the Committee on Justice for the full 15 week period. The process is full of inherent risks: a few good witnesses, too much legal maneuvering by the majority at the expense of the minority, bungling by the minority, could lead the process either way.

The Speaker is widely considered to be holding his troops in reserve, to continue pressuring the President to support charter change. But I personally doubted this, as it’s the kind of card the Speaker can only use if he wants to bring not only the President, but the system, crashing down. But say he says, “I will have my people sign the impeachment complaint to send it to the senate,” what will he gain? Well, the possibility that upon the President’s removal from office, her successor will be more amenable to really pushing for the Ramos plan. So perhaps it is something he’s using as a means to pressure the President.

2. The President’s “sweet spot”

The analyst suggests the President is in a “sweet spot,” economically, because of a sort of circular arrangement. Filipinos are not only still going abroad, but are increasing the percentage of better-paying jobs they’re holding overseas; they in turn, are sending remittances that keep increasing year after year; the majority of funds sent by remittances are immediately spent, which keeps the economy turning over; the money flows through banks and other channels, which in turn benefits the banks, both through surcharges and because, apparently, the amount that’s stuck in the banks grows by 10% every year; the banks, in turn, for lack of any better investments to make (that is, they lend out less and less to people), put their money in government bonds, which in turn, allows the government to keep itself afloat, financially. So overseas Filipinos, their families, the banks, and the bond market, are keeping the President buoyed up, the economy fairly in a good way (the analyst says the end of the year will provide the President numbers to crow about, such as our growth rate finally matching that of Malaysia while the numbers for Korea and other countries in the region begin to shrink).

The analyst says the recent Economist article comparing the Philippines to Argentina is “crap,” suggesting that the constant inflow of foreign exchange from Filipinos abroad, the relative stability of the Peso, and the distinction between foreign and local debt works more to the Philippines’ advantage. I must confess I got rather lost at this point, but he seemed fairly confident the country definitely doesn’t look like it’s going to undergo an Argentina meltdown anytime soon. Unless, of course, there are massive layoffs of Filipinos abroad, or if the political crisis is resolved in a messy way, such as a junta.

3. VAT is more necessary for patronage

The securities analyst suggests the President’s fiscal management isn’t so bad, actually, and that over the next few years, we’re actually headed towards a balanced budget. What would get us there sooner is to purge the civil service of thousands of redundant, incompetent, or politically-placed employees, but to do so would be political suicide. Hence, the budget deficit has to be eliminated very slowly. But it can be done, says the analyst, because it is already being done.

So what’s the VAT law for? The VAT law covers the need for patronage; that the funds sourced via the VAT are what would pay for the projects and pork barrel needed by politicians beginning the end of this year and accelerating next year, as they prepare to seek reelection in 2007. Now that the President is fighting for her political life, she needs to be prompt (though alone of recent presidents, she has actually been prompt and conscientious about the release of pork barrel funds to the provinces, which is why provincial leaders like her) with patronage funds, to keep everyone happy, and loyal.

4. The unfinished story of the tapes

So far, PCIJ traces the “Hello, Garci” tape to Agent Doble talking about it while drunk, leading to the opposition hearing about it and procuring the tape, through fair means or foul. But why did Doble only blab about it a year after the events? Could he have been deliberately assigned to leak the story? There remains much more to the story, including why the tape was leaked, and what other tapes there might be. Colleagues there hinted they are working on the story and have a suspect or a few suspects, in mind. Motivations are interesting, too, ranging from revenge, to boosting retirement funds, to any combination of these.

5. Where in the world is Garcillano?

ABS-CBN in advance of Newsbreak, released today a story on how it’s sources have confirmed that Commissioner Garcillano left for Singapore, and after an overnight stay, took a commercial flight to London (one journalist: how did he get a visa?). No news as to whether he stayed in London or went directly somewhere else -and why London, and where would he then go? And of course: doesn’t this mean he’s never coming back? What will be the consequences of his disappearance, involving, as it does, the connivance of government authorities in immigration and the airport? The House of Representatives will surely be ticked off.

6. Cha-cha

Two contending opinions on this. One, the President is half-heartedly proposing charter change to satisfy the demands of former president Ramos and Speaker de Venecia, so that, when the effort collapses, she can say, “well, it’s not my fault your idea failed,” leaving her as the only option until 2010. Or, the President will sincerely push it, and has her consultative commission as her ace in the hole, as people like Prof. Jose Abueva, suitably ego-massaged by being appointed to the commission, will then help sell the idea to the public. What of the Senate? Some say the Speaker is working on “sweeteners” that will ensure senators a seat in parliament for the duration of their existing terms, and some sort of gerrymandered solution to ensure them bailiwicks they can be elected to, afterwards. It might be enough to convince senators with regional bailiwicks (such as Lito Lapid, for example) so sign on. But opponents of charter change only need 6 senators to steadfastly resist the effort, for the effort to fail.

Irritated press

Image looted from Hotmanila.

I missed the President’s first interaction with the press since June, but it was, thankfully, covered by Punzi and of course, by Jove Francisco, who describes it as a messy product launch (The product? The President, of course, as he previously explained). Inq7.net reports the press conference as “manipulated,” which has incurred the ire of both the Palace press corps, and the Foreign Correspondent’s Association of the Philippines. The real news in the press conference was the President’s idea of setting up a consultative commission to help Congress draft constitutional amendments. It’s a good move, politically, as it allows her to gain some leverage over the process, which otherwise seems a total surrender to former president Ramos and Speaker de Venecia.
Incidentally, the Tribune has an interesting story on the bishops who accompanied Cory Aquino to appeal to the President to quit.

Mainstream media is still grappling with either charter change or impeachment. The Inquirer editorial characterizes the state of the nation address as a plea bargain:

What the President attempted to do was seek a way out, both for her and the party she now needs to rally to her defense. That wasn’t statesmanship or vision, it was a plea bargain like you see in the movies: in exchange for what the authorities want, the guilty party settles for a shortened sentence. Lakas-CMD wants Charter change, to be managed by it and defined by it. The President wants to bow out of office not in an act of surrender, but through some sort of face-saving vindication. Lakas has offered it. She has accepted it. The public is not involved in the plea bargain.

Marichu Villanueva says charter change is a divide-and-conquer strategy; Amando Doronila says the proposal taps into a genuinely popular desire for change; Ram Mercado takes an amusing look at the speech:

When I heard this portion of her 23-minute address, and saw the spontaneous pandemonium of acclamation by the members of Congress assembled, it was like the feeding time of crocodiles in a pond, where the dressed chicken and chunks of meat thrown to them were snatched in mid-air even before reaching surface.

Emil Jurado blasts critics of charter change, saying they miss the benefits of parliamentarism, the best thing since sliced bread:

Under a parliamentary system, no more presidential candidates, just a prime minister, heading the government chosen from among his peers, and who can simply be booted out with a simple “no confidence” vote. No more mob rule, People Power and Edsas ad infinitum, which saps the economy.

Max Soliven, on the other hand, points to Italy as the other side of the parliamentary coin. A never-ending merry-go-round of governments. Carlos Conde reports charter change seems a diversion.

On impeachment, Ed Espiritu says it’s the best shot at resolving the crisis; Patricio Diaz says the President has to face impeachment sincerely, and without fear; and Carmen Guerrero Nakpil paraphrases the President’s speech as follows:

What Mrs. Arroyo really said in her state-of-the-nation speech before Congress last Monday is: “All right, you people want to throw me out? I’m not going to talk about the reasons why, since you’ve said you don’t believe me. Here’s what we’ll do, Ramos, de Venecia and I. We’ll cut up this country into little pieces of federated states, each with its own government, and small parliament districts represented by members of parliament and they’ll elect a prime minister and even a president. We’ll dismember the budget, the policies, trade, industry and the “economic take-off” I talked about, the whole nation, its history and culture. What will I do? I’ll take care of myself. Don’t worry about me. You worry about all your goddamn, degenerate selves. I told you this is not a popularity contest. I am extremely unpopular. But you’re not getting what you want; I am.”

Greg Macabenta gives overseas Filipinos advice on how to become politically involved; Tony Abaya apparently had something to say, today, but his paper decided to provide a blank page for his online column. Hotmanila has two good items: Alan Robles wonders,

Facing a catastrophic political crisis, President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo is searching for the proper leadership image. Should she be a resolute lame duck, an aloof lame duck, or a kinder, gentler lame duck?

While mercifully, a column by Vergel Santos (who writes for Business World, which however, doesn’t make its columns available online) on the middle class appears:

The middle class knows with moral certainty where it stands, although, having precisely gone wrong with Arroyo, whom it had installed in Estrada’s place, it may yet be searching for a fresh strategy – a fresh wisdom.

In the blogosphere, Howie Severino by way of Mario Neri and commenter Mario Taguiwalo who coined the phrase, which is clever indeed, remarks that the President’s speech marks the transformation of republic from strong to thong. Edwin Lacierda says we now have a triumvirate, on the Roman model, composed of former president Ramos, President Arroyo, and Speaker de Venecia:

But who will be the last proconsul standing in the triumvirate? And who will be the Julius Ceasar, the Marcus Licinius Crassus or Gnaeus Pompeius Magnus of this troika? Will they plunge the Republic to civil strife? If Roman history is any gauge, only one will survive and consolidate power. And most especially, who among them will cross the Rubicon and mutter “Iacta alea est”- the die is cast?

Philippine Politics quotes Miriam Santiago against charter change; La Vida Lawyer is back in Sun Tzu mode, and advises the President that deception does not work in politics; Fearlessbounce, last Monday, suggested Congress engage in a boxing match to resolve the crisis.

Willy Prilles in Naga City points out that while everyone focused on the President’s speech, media failed to notice an editor being thrown in jail:

But Joe’s case is one for Ripley’s, at least in the Philippine setting – with the extraordinary speed that the judge handed his order sending him behind bars. Without clarifying the terms for bail in his order, the judge later made himself scarce after the hearing and well into the weekend break – to ensure that Joe would serve time. And pay the price of press freedom.

Speaking of the provinces, PCIJ reports bribery is on the increase in Davao. In iBlog, a thoughtful post, from some days back, on media and blogging. And finally, Rank Merida mourns the high cost of books.

The day after

The dissection of the President’s State of the Nation address is well underway.

The biggest thing about the President’s speech is that it marked the end of the Arroyo presidency as it once wanted to be; it marks the end of an effort to provide ideological underpinnings to her administration. The dream of a Strong Republic, one that I felt had great merit, but which scholars such as Jojo Abinales believes the President never fully understood, and thus never enthusiastically backed, is well and truly dead. Her speech marks the end of what every president dreams of: a period during which one builds a legacy, and makes a mark on history. Yesterday, the efforts of President Arroyo to define her term by her own standards gave way to the desire of the political class to redefine and redraw the rules of the game, to insulate themselves from what they fear most: a public and people turned immature, incoherent, undiscerning and indiscriminate by their leaders’ failure to make life better for the people. She no longer leads, she merely goes along with the wishes of the party machine. Newsstand calls it a hollow victory.

Overlooked has been Jose de Venecia’s original inclinations toward the French model, which even he has apparently dropped in favor of a purely parliamentary state of affairs: as he said during one of his long, rambling interviews before the President’s speech, “we will have five year terms! no more elections every two, three years!”

For me: Federalism, yes! Indeed, it seems to me Federalism is the one and only suggestion really cheered by both the politicians and the public, at least those present in the Batasan. It is the one idea that many on both sides of the political aisle find meritorious.

Personally, I believe we cannot abandon the presidency: the reason the presidency has failed in recent years is because the present Constitution fails to provide a mechanism for candidates to receive solid, and unquestionable, majorities instead of pluralities. We are not a pluralistic culture. We only respect numbers, and overwhelming numbers, at that. No president has managed a majority since 1969 (even Cory Aquino’s assumption of power required a revolution). We have lacked leaders with a solid national mandate for 36 years.

Federalism gives to the provinces a greater control over their destiny, and reduces the scope of a national government increasingly unprepared and ill-equipped to respond to local needs in a timely manner. A president under a Federal system would have his duties restricted to foreign affairs, national defense, world trade and inter-state commerce and regulation. That is more than enough, and it is less that what presidents must attend to, now. These things, incidentally, are what presidents like to attend to, anyway. Federalism could limit the expenses for an upper house, by reestablishing the regional basis for senate seats, as practiced from 1916-1935. Again, this is due to my personal view that people like having a bicameral legislature, because they instinctively prefer some sort of balance; but I don’t think people would object to the secretaries or ministers of state coming from the lower house (which is something our politicians dearly wish, and which is born out by the presidential habit of plucking out appointees from the legislature, anyway).

In the pundit roundup in the papers, and in the blogosphere, we have:

Concerning the State of the Nation, Godofredo Roperos says the fact the government is still working is the most important news of all; Expectorants delivers his own State of the Nation prescription; PCIJ reports few surprises in the President’s speech; Unlawyer remarks the President’s closing slogan sounded a lot like Marcos’s New Society slogan; Jove gives a fascinating roundup on his network’s stories on the true state of the nation, as well as background on the speech itself (Rigoberto Tiglao told me last night at ANC that “the President wrote most of it,” which was the party line on such speeches in the past); Punzi was not amused by the cheering; Howie Severino focuses on the floral and botanical symbolism of the event; Edwin Lacierda call’s the President’s proposals a Hobson’s choice (an apparently free choice that is no choice at all); Miron usefully provides links to yesterday’s other important speeches, the Speaker’s and the Senate President’s, and says the speech worked in setting the agenda; 2T says the mountains labored, and brought forth, a mouse; Gari takes a look at the speech from the point of view of an activist; Newsstand finds its language quite tentative.

When it comes to impeachment, the Inquirer editorial comes out strongly in favor of it; Patricio Diaz is in favor of it, too; Bel Cunanan takes a dim view of the impeachment complaint; Dong Puno says the President’s legitimacy has to be resolved; Paeng is unhappy over the way Federalism has become joined at the hip to the President.

Elsewhere, Connie Veneracion opines on the Filipino family and politics; Juan Mercado complains of too many people wanting to save us; Alex Magno points out something the President hinted at in her speech: the efforts of Jose de Venecia to secure debt relief. As Magno explains,

Already, the de Venecia proposal has earned the endorsement of Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. The prime minister indicated that his government will support the proposed debt conversion scheme once it is brought before the Paris Club.

The essential element of the de Venecia proposal is the conversion of 50 percent of the outstanding debt of the 100 highly indebted countries into a financing program for MDG projects in the developing world. Instead of an outflow of debt service funds from the developing countries, the equivalent amount will be converted into equity in MDG-related instruments. The creditor banks and governments will own the equity resulting from the conversion – although the developing countries, when they can afford it, could buy back the invested equity.

The fund will be used for reforestation, mass housing, irrigation and post-harvest facilities, hospitals and health care programs, schools and computers, clean water projects, infrastructure, ecotourism and other wealth creating projects such as mining, land reclamation and the development of natural resources.

Republika, which seems a promising new blog, takes a look at blogging; And in the comic(s) relief department, check out Bulletproof Vest’s GMA Komiks.

The President’s address

The President mounted the rostrum to a great volley of cheering from the throng. Speaker clapping madly; Senate President standing quietly.

President looks tired but relaxed and confident.

President broke protocol by recognizing former President Ramos ahead of the Senate President.

“Ours is a country divided. The story of our nation is a tale of two Philippines… one is the Philippines whose economy.. is now poised for take off… the other is the Philippines whose political system… has become a hindrance to progress…”

She points out 6% growth and 4 million jobs despite high oil prices; marked improvements in tax collections, improved infrastructure, rice productivity… 69 million beneficiaries of health insurance including 30 million indigents being re-enrolled. The drug menace “cut in half”, kidnapping reduced, and the “insurgency in the South, abated…”

She makes reference to the “titanic struggle” to achieve fiscal reforms, to end the cycle of borrowing, “to snap the chain” that binds us to “our profligate past.” That struggle, she says, has done Congress great honor.

Abroad, “we’ve worked long and hard to restore” the country to its place as a co-founder of UN and prominence as a front line of free countries… Pays tribute to Speaker (great, appreciative hooting from audience). Says Bush lauded Philippine anti-terrorism efforts.

“Permanent peace in Mindanao is within reach. Indeed, our story as a country on the verge of take off is real.”

“If only we can overcome our tendency to become our own worst enemy.”

“We will not waver in our commitment to economic reform and fiscal discipline whatever the political cost.”

“The other message to send… We will address the burden to the other Philippines… I refer to how… our political system has become a hindrance to progress…”

“To be sure, the system is still capable of achieving reforms… it has betrayed its promise… Filipinos… are voting with their feet and are leaving that system behind… Perhaps our best is not good enough… It’s time to bring the people into government and change the way the business of government is done.” (Applause, wild cheering)

“The people want good government that works for them at every level… From the barangay… and does not end at the closed door of a bureaucrat in Metro Manila…” (cheering)

“The system needs fundamental change, and the sooner, the better.”

“It’s time to start the great debate on Charter Change.” (very happy applause and cheering)

“Such questions as: how much more government is needed for the greater safety of our people… and how much less is needed for.. economic progress…”

“A Constituent Assembly might give our people the quickest way to needed reforms.” (Frenetic applause and happy cheering).

“I shall work with Congress, civil society groups, and local government executives” (interrupted by applause) “who are convinced that charter changes are needed…”

President acknowledges local government executives, gestures to them: whistling, cheering, stamping of feet in response. She says they represent “An LGU power revolution to transformative leadership.”

“They.. make a compelling case for Federalism.” Gallery leaps to its feet with joy.

“Perhaps its time to take the power from the center to the countryside that feeds it.”

She suggests a parliamentary system -interrupted by more cheering and another standing ovation- “similar to that of our progressive neighbors in the region.”

“…I hope we can still work together on other initiatives…” Here, she proposes more funding for schooling.

She asks Congress to pass a pre-need code to regulate the pre-need industry.

She has issued an executive order mandating that hours spent in vocational training be credited toward a college degree.

“Our competitiveness is greatly endangered today by the oil crisis…” She asks Congress to pass legislation promoting renewable energy.

For national security: she urges the passage of an Anti-Terrorism Law with adequate safeguards for civil liberties.

“There is much work to be done. Now is not the time for divisiveness… While there’s no avoiding partisan politics… All sides can limit the collateral damage to a country poised for take off.”

“Let’s call on the Lord to lead us…”

Then a passage in Filipino: “I know we all want peace, stability… I appeal to all of you, to help me work for the benefit of the country….”

“We may disagree among ourselves but let us never lose sight of the greater battle for one people, one country, one Philippines.”

“Not the country of this of that president, but the Philippines of our shared, and impassioned, affections.”

She ended to yet another standing ovation; Speaker delighted; Senate President looking mournful. There hasn’t been such an outburst of political joy in a State of the Nation Address since Cory Aquino opened Congress in 1987.

Crowd chanting: “GMA! GMA! GMA!”

It seems the trial balloons of a conciliatory speech were just that; the speech wasn’t taunting, but firm, and incidentally, completely what Fidel Ramos wanted.

Senate President jeered when he gaveled the session closed; Speaker wildly cheered. More chanting of “GMA! GMA!”.

Update, 6pm: The full text of the President’s speech is now online.

President enters Hall

Cheering as the President enters the Session Hall. “Mabuhay” being played. Throng clapping along as she’s mobbed on her way to rostrum.

Cheering as President reaches the rostrum.

Senate President and Speaker declare joint session open; national anthem being sung, 4pm.

The President to enter the Hall

At Commonwealth Avenue, the Philippine National Police have massed ranks of riot police, then barbed wire fences, then container vans blocking the lanes, and fire trucks behind the vans. Negotiations continuously taking place between the police and protesters. The pro-President rally group is apparently being ignored by media.

The Speaker has entered the Session Hall of the House. The President has left her laison’s office, and is proceeding to the lobby of the House.

No terno for the President

Dressed in a kind of Maria Clara, the President has arrived in the Batasan Pambansa, and is proceeding to the office of her legislative laison at the House of Representatives. For the first time, she isn’t dressed in a terno. It’s incredible how frumpy and dowdy so many of the ladies in the House look. She is beaming broadly and confidently.

It’s particularly scandalous that there are ladies in ternos who have their hair down. That’s never done, hair for women in the national dress should be properly coiffed.

Lots of legislators and visitors both on the session floor and in the galleries are fanning themselves, the airconditioning must be having a hard time coping with the crowd.

Ricky Carandang: Rep. Edcel Lagman says not having garnered 79 signatures, the impeachment complaint, having been filed, will be subjected to the full period and process of evaluation at the Committee on Justice and then plenary, regardless of whether or not 79 signatures are subsequently achieved.

Pushing and shoving between rallyists and the police at Commonwealth Avenue.

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