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Feb 16

Curious survey

Manila Standard: The Future is Ours

The Manila Standard has a survey that’s provoked a fit from Lumbao of the PMAP. The article on the survey says,

…The latest survey commissioned by Manila Standard and conducted by a private group (not SWS) from Feb. 10 – 12 showed Ms. Arroyo catching up with the popular actor, garnering a rating of 31.3 percent against Poe’s 39.14 percent, or a difference of only 7.8 percent.

An earlier survey conducted by SWS from Jan. 16-22 showed the President in the no. 2 spot, with a rating of 27 percent. In that survey, Poe was rated 36 percent, 9 percent ahead of Ms. Arroyo.

The survey showed Ms. Arroyo has been taking votes off Raul Roco while Poe has been gaining supporters from Panfilo Lacson’s camp.

Roco polled 13.6 percent on Feb. 10-12, down from 19 percent on Jan 16-22. Lacson, on the other hand, dropped to 8.9 percent from 11 percent.

Christian televangelist Eddie Villanueva, meanwhile, gained ground from 1 percent on Jan. 16-22 to 1.74 percent on Feb. 10-12.

In the vice presidential race, Noli “Kabayan” de Castro was way ahead of Loren Legarda, with 60.5 percent against her 28.02 percent.

De Castro, Ms. Arroyo’s running mate, garnered 52 percent in the previous survey, while Legarda, Poe’s vice presidential bet, scored 37 percent.

Former congressman Herminio Aquino, Roco’s running mate, polled 5.68 percent, slightly up from 4 percent.

The survey was conducted during the first few days of the political campaign period. It had a nationwide representative sample of 1,200 registered voters, with 300 respondents each from Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

What I want to know, though, is:

1. Who is this survey group?
2. What’s the margin of error?

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